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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elections in the Politicos GE2015 Guide will look totally out of date

Just got back from an enjoyable holiday near Malaga to find my copy of the Politicos Guide to GE2015 waiting for me. Like its predecessor on the 2010 election I’ve contributed a chapter on by-elections in this parliament the text of which was finalised before Douglas Carswell made his dramatic switch and resigned forcing today’s by-election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Turbulent times.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited October 2014
    UKIP will fail against Labour. Again.

    Vote silly. Get Milli.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    A terrrrible night for the conservatives.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Peter Kellner: Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Liberal Democrats fighting for their deposit at H&M count. More likely than not that they've lost it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    QT isn't much fun for the Kippers so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    World's 3 biggest economies for last 2,000 years.
    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21623758-chinas-back?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/chinasback
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Manchester Evening News says UKIP source hoping for a 30-35% score in Heywood and Middleton
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner: Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.

    Why is Kellner saying that?

    What evidence is he basing this on?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Second against Labour just isn't good enough. Hoovering up anti Labour voters in "safe" Labour areas is certainly not that big.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "Turnout 50% in Clacton" - knife edge for bets.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    supposedly 50% turnout in Clacton: via Dimbleby on QT
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Socrates

    Debt not matter then? Looking forward to Cameron's right wing dash panic
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sleep well Mike! I'm driving across our United Kingdom tonight as a three-week anniversary celebration of its survival. Kinda. Will be listening to the result come in on the World Service - if I'm not napping at the time.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    It has to be funded either by cutting public services, or stopping / slowing down debt reduction.

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Peter

    KIP now 94/1 to take Heywood.

  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    IOS said:

    Socrates

    Debt not matter then? Looking forward to Cameron's right wing dash panic

    Another? Last few have all worked out well.

    The more the Tories panic Rightwards, the more they feed the UKIP Blob.

    Ed's first act when he enters No 10 should be to buy Lynton a drink.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    It has to be funded either by cutting public services, or stopping / slowing down debt reduction.

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
    By not spending as much. That's good enough for me.

  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).

    At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Harriet refuses to apologise for Mid Staffs on QT.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2014
    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Hugh

    He can't help it. He is like a gambler doubling down. He thinks he's just one more hand away from winning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    I hope everyone has Blue Nun on standby.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my source
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).

    At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
    Reducing the benefits cap to £23k.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).

    At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
    What are you going on about?
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Cameron is ready to destroy the right wing.

    Split
    Split
    Split
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.

    They are surging one day, then putting their assets in Swiss bank accounts the next.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my source
    Well, the obvious answer is that it's an outlier, we need to wait for Sunday's YouGov. There has been a 2% or so LibDem conference bounce (that's not insignificant - it means their likely vote has gone up by about 30%) and UKIP is a couple of percent higher than it has been with YouGov. Others are high as well, at 11%. I guess we need to wait for the conference season to unwind, although that will be further complicated by UKIP's publicity from today's by-elections.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    UKIP now expecting its highest ever by-election score in a Labour seat - Britain Elects
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    JohnLilburne said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my source
    Well, the obvious answer is that it's an outlier, we need to wait for Sunday's YouGov. There has been a 2% or so LibDem conference bounce (that's not insignificant - it means their likely vote has gone up by about 30%) and UKIP is a couple of percent higher than it has been with YouGov. Others are high as well, at 11%. I guess we need to wait for the conference season to unwind, although that will be further complicated by UKIP's publicity from today's by-elections.

    You have to wonder whether the Libs will ever be in a better position - cut and run for an autumn poll would be my advice
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are now 1.3 in Rochester with Betfair:

    UKIP 1.3
    Con 3.5
    Lab 29
    Oth 550

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/nav?navNodeId=EVENT_TYPE:2378961#/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=2378961
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    ___Bobajob___ said:


    They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.

    Neither has been evident in the posts of any Conservative supporters on PB. You make things up the whole time. For example you said on the previous thread:

    We were assured on here that the Tory lead was sticky.

    No you weren't. Almost everyone has been saying we should wait and see how things settle in the weeks after the conference season is over.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner: Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.

    Why is Kellner saying that?

    What evidence is he basing this on?
    I was asking myself the same question. He usually has good information though.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Blackpool Waterloo Is a Con hold

    Con 406 UKIP 372 Lab 347 LD 34 BNP 17
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard

    Posters on here have been saying the Tory lead is preordained let alone sticky!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2014
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Hi everyone,

    Labour and Ukip both 1.01 on the Irish one for reference...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    HYUFD

    Is it worth a seat?
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:


    They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.

    Neither has been evident in the posts of any Conservative supporters on PB. You make things up the whole time. For example you said on the previous thread:

    We were assured on here that the Tory lead was sticky.

    No you weren't. Almost everyone has been saying we should wait and see how things settle in the weeks after the conference season is over.
    I was referring to HYUFD's posts (although I am sure I could find others)

    I have already pulled his leg about it, he seemed to take it well enough.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    1.3 Aaaaaaaaarrrrhhh - I would have taken that. Maybe.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oh that's Rochester. My apologies.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Don't Think We Need The URLs for Rochester, AndyJS
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win and would mean we would never get a say on EU membership. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!

    It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!!

    It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
    Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?

    As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited October 2014
    IOS Worth a big cut in Labour majority
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    IOS said:

    Richard

    Posters on here have been saying the Tory lead is preordained let alone sticky!

    Yes indeed!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10!

    It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
    Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?
    That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10!

    It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
    Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?
    That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.
    Bacon butty strategy (copyright Briskin) - don't write it off.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited October 2014
    Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JBriskin said:

    Don't Think We Need The URLs for Rochester, AndyJS

    Sorry, did I confuse people with that link?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    AndyJS said:

    JBriskin said:

    Don't Think We Need The URLs for Rochester, AndyJS

    Sorry, did I confuse people with that link?
    Linky link link

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    HYUFD

    And you get nothing for a cut majority in this game.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    edited October 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known

    The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.

    They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.

    Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
    It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!!

    It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
    Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?

    As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.
    No it won't be Ed. It will be Cameron. He is entirely responsible for the mess he has led his party into and if Labour win in May the only person to blame for that will be Cameron.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Socrates said:

    That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.

    What are you smoking? Farage boasts about it. It's part of the fantasy UKIP spin about destroying the Conservative Party and regrouping the right. It's bonkers, of course, but that's what they say they are hoping to do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
    I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".

    I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the post
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    JohnLilburne said:

    MarkSenior said:

    UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known

    The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.

    Full result UKIP 662 Con 312 Lab 196 LD 130
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard T

    Well said. About time Tories like Nabavi took responsibility for their party failing. It's surely so non right wing to not take responsibility for outcomes.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the post
    Oh well, I suppose that's (marginally) better than your throwing a strop and flouncing off in self righteous indignation.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now

    I don't disagree. The Labour score at 35% is miserable, as I said below.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
    But surely you couldn't be an MP of a dissolved parliament?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    GIN1138 said:

    UKIP will fail against Labour. Again.

    Vote silly. Get Milli.

    And despite ed's approval ratings it appears kippers do not care about that outcome. Not enough to not destroy Cameron at any rate. It's looking pretty dire for the Tories if contests in the ge play out even slightly similar to today, even if it is hardly a ringing endorsement for ed.

    Night all
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton

    Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IOS said:

    Richard T

    Well said. About time Tories like Nabavi took responsibility for their party failing. It's surely so non right wing to not take responsibility for outcomes.

    You would like Richard to take responsibility for losing the next GE - bit early for that no ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard

    Surely all our vote is postal votes? I get confused with these Tory theories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud. ;)
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    JohnLilburne said:

    MarkSenior said:

    UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known

    The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.

    You might say their flame continues to burn brightly in Rushmoor John
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    IOS Nothing but the satisfaction of ensuring no Labour gloating over Clacton
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TGOHF

    I would like Cameron lovers like Nabavi and co to take responsibility for splitting the right and halving Tory membership.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    RobD said:

    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud. ;)
    Indeed, sir, one of the Elect, and a most discerning and discriminating poster. Doors to manual.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/

    He expects people to be impressed with everything.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IOS said:

    TGOHF

    I would like Cameron lovers like Nabavi and co to take responsibility for splitting the right and halving Tory membership.

    But Cameron is PM - hardly a failure.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the post
    Oh well, I suppose that's (marginally) better than your throwing a strop and flouncing off in self righteous indignation.
    Yawn
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Local democracy didn't last long..

    Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago

    New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …

    When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?
    Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...

    Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
    Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?
    I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.
    I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".

    I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down
    When David Taylor MP died on Boxing Day 2009 it was decided that no by-election would take place even though the general election was four and a half months away. So it looks like any defections from December onwards wouldn't require a by-election.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.

    What are you smoking? Farage boasts about it. It's part of the fantasy UKIP spin about destroying the Conservative Party and regrouping the right. It's bonkers, of course, but that's what they say they are hoping to do.
    Please link me to Farage boasting that his aim is Ed Miliband as PM.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TGOHF

    The Tories cannot win a majority in Britain. The party is screwed.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton

    Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.
    They'll still get home safely I'm sure.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    AndyJS said:

    Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/

    Nostradamus strikes back
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    edited October 2014
    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    JohnO said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.

    And you are accusing me of making things up???

    The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.
    I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud. ;)
    Indeed, sir, one of the Elect, and a most discerning and discriminating poster. Doors to manual.
    I doff my cap to the (who must be) peer-in-waiting JohnO.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "@Joe_Oliver UKIP campaign manager says 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified' #HeywoodAndMiddleton"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_oliver
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    UKIP campaign manager in Heywood and Middleton: 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turnout 36.02% in Heywood & Middleton.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IOS said:

    TGOHF

    The Tories cannot win a majority in Britain. The party is screwed.

    Screwed but Cameron is PM ? Right.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    Disastrous night for the Tories.

    Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.

    And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.

    Taxi for Cameron.

    How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?
    Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).

    At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
    Would they put us back into deficit? Do you have a source for that?

    Reducing aggregate demand need not happen once you're off the zero-bound interest rates, as we surely will be come 2018.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Bobajob Indeed, we must look tonight to see what the UKIP momentum is from these by-elections
This discussion has been closed.