politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect
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Bloody hell
Shock of the year
Lib Dems hold a deposit !!!!!!!0 -
LDs held deposit in Heywood0
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We all f-ing remember Fitalass but I'm not exactly going to tweet you am I???0
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UKIP candidate being top of the ballot paper helped no doubt in H&M.0
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Labour majority 617 by my reckoning.0
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Lab 11,633
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 1457
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lol @ the Lib dems cheering0
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UKIP lost for 617 votes if I heard correctly.0
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Result UKIP 11,016, Con 3,496, Green 870, Labour 11,633, LD 1,4570
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Very strong tactical voting going on there then.0
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'People gave their backing to the Milipede...' .... yeah right. Risible in the extreme.0
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Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.manofkent2014 said:Lab 11,633
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 14570 -
Lab up less than 1% on GE.0
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Lab 41%
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%0 -
Labour winning candidate in Heywood
"Tonight voters gave their backing to Ed Miliband ..."
Then some rant on the NHS..0 -
Labour candidate makes a fool of herself on TV.
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Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.0
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A dreadful result for Ed Miliband. 617 vote majority.0
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Ms Swann (trusted source) was hinting that she was pilgrim?0
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Absolutely it will be interesting to see if Tories will bite the bullet and vote tactically although clearly thousands of them already have switched to UKIP given the UKIP vote is only 1,500 or so votes shy of what the Tories got in 2010Speedy said:
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.manofkent2014 said:Lab 11,633
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 14570 -
More Labour voters will turn out in a GE. This was UKIP's chance.Speedy said:
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.manofkent2014 said:Lab 11,633
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 1457
But a terrible result for Labour. No-one is remotely enthused about voting for the party. They do it out of loyalty, habit and because they like other parties even less.
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As I said below, Tories tend to be less inclined than other voters to vote tactically.Speedy said:
UKIP might have a chance in 2015 there if the Tories vote tactically for them.manofkent2014 said:Lab 11,633
UKIP 11,016
Con 3,496
Green 870
LD 1457
Whether they should do or not is another matter.
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Looks like some anti Labour tactical switching by Conservatives to me.0
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Difficult to see UKIP not winning Rochester after this performance in Heywood.0
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"2 Tories on the ballot paper but the voters chose neither" says winning Lab pilgrim
Maths not her strong point.0 -
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
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Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
UKIP might be up to something about child sex scandals in safe Labour seats, Rotherham and Heywood will be seats to look at in 2015.0
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I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness.
JBriskin said:Like 90% of Aberdonians Fitalass - a fairly safe bet.
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They haven't quite got the hang of FPTP have they. ;-)TGOHF said:Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.
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It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.Danny565 said:
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
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Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
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MP called it right though - I apologise for shouting at TvJBriskin said:
Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
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Traditionally safe seats tend to come down in by-elections to pro- and anti-incumbent. I thought it was going to be close when I heard the turnout was just 38% - the quesiton was how much of the anti-Labour vote would swing behind UKIP. Given the UKIP surge I think that Labour did OK getting an increased vote share, but we'll be relieved that the Tory and LibDem votes didn't flock to UKIP in even greater numbers. I suspect we'll see something similar in reverse in Clacton, though clearly with an outright UKIP win.0
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I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
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Ho hum - Do I vote UKIP in Derbyshire NE now...0
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Excuse me? What are you saying?JBriskin said:
Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +30 -
Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.0
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That must be why we get on so muchfitalass said:I am a Highland lassie at heart. I only officially became an Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire quine after moving to Aberdeen 30 years ago, and only after eventually marrying an Aberdonian after spending sometime in Edinburgh and Inverness.
JBriskin said:Like 90% of Aberdonians Fitalass - a fairly safe bet.
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Neil tearing lumps out of Dugher right now.0
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Lazy as sin aren't they ?SouthamObserver said:
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.manofkent2014 said:
Excuse me? What are you saying?JBriskin said:
Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
Withdrawn
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They have lost the WWC vote and they will never get it back.Danny565 said:
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
What are they going to say come GE time? You can't have a referendum on the EU as you are too stupid so immigration will stay the same, you cannot have EV4EL either?
That will work well.0 -
Totally unenthused, I'd say. And understandably so.Pulpstar said:
Lazy as sin aren't they ?SouthamObserver said:
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
Con-Lab swing 7.9% in Heywood & Middleton...0
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I miss those AGW debates on yesteryear on here - all of them have now frozen away: http://iceagenow.info/2014/10/new-all-time-record-north-america-sept-snow-cover-highest-45-years-data/0
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Why would votes go back to the Tories? They have no chance of winning Heywood. If Heywood voters want to stop Ed Miliband there is only one choice and that is to vote UKIP.hucks67 said:Perhaps with a 36% turnout, this is UKIP at their max in Heywood. At the general election Labour should win a comfortable majority in the seat and some UKIP votes will go back to the Tories. Labour will be very relieved to have won and should learn the lesson not to take voters for granted in the north.
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"The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing."
at the moment, nothing0 -
Sorry - might have been Woolfe
I only got my Sky news0 -
Well John Curtice made exactly the same comparisons as I did. And anyway who made you the arbiter of this site?JBriskin said:
Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.manofkent2014 said:
Excuse me? What are you saying?JBriskin said:
Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
Withdrawn0 -
After listening to her winner's speech and her replies in this interview with Andrew Neil on BBC... well, I'm not in the least bit surprised people weren't enthused about voting for her and that she's been run close today.0
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I certainly agree with the last part - and that's why I think Ed should go, because even if he starts doing the right policies now, I think it's too late for him to shake the bad opinions people already have of him.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of being more left or right, it is a matter of coherence and credibility. EdM is a dreadful leader and has failed utterly to give voters a clear understanding of what a Labour government would want to do, let alone how it would do it. He inspires zero confidence.Danny565 said:
That is absolutely right. But, with respect, don't you say Labour should be even MORE in the so-called "centre ground"? That would be the type of thing that would push these voters away further. If Labour want poor people to vote for them, they simply have to promise them things that will help them. They're not doing that at the moment.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
What I'm getting at is that what Westminster assumes about people thinking Labour are "too left-wing" couldn't be further from the truth. In my patch (near-ish to Manchester), Labour people are constantly saying they just don't think Labour are interested in helping "people like them" anymore. As far as they see it, the only people promising them any hope are UKIP who are essentially saying that taking stuff away from immigrants will mean there's more that can go to people like them. The only way Labour are going to counter that is by actually offering these people some hope themselves about how things can be better, but they're just not able to do that while they're pointlessly trying to keep up with the Tories in the austerity/"credibility" stakes.0 -
Not much sign of LD->Lab switching in Heywood.0
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In truth this is a shocking night for both the Labour and Conservative party.0
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was that the worst winning speech ever?0
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It is not my fault if my words carry weight.manofkent2014 said:
Well John Curtice made exactly the same comparisons as I did. And anyway who made you the arbiter of this site?JBriskin said:
Thrasher kind of agreeing with me.manofkent2014 said:
Excuse me? What are you saying?JBriskin said:
Now now, I'll assume you're not trolling - but this is not valid for here.manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +3
Withdrawn
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617 votes? Close, ever so close!
(I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)0 -
Labour almost lost a safe seat to a party that got 3% in the last election.SouthamObserver said:
I think that is exactly what has happened. But I also think that in a GE more Labour voters will turn out.nigel4england said:
Has it ever crossed your mind that perhaps they don't actually want to vote for them any more?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.
Now Heywood has become a very tight marginal with a 617 majority, and there are still 12% Tories to be squeezed by UKIP, while only 5% LD and 3% GRN for Labour.0 -
NHS pilgrim now an MP and boy is she deeply unimpressive.
I would not be surprised at all if UKIP take this in May0 -
Undeniably a very bad result for Labour in Heywood. Not catastrophic - losing would have merited that description.0
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Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!0
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I predicted Labour by 5,890.Sunil_Prasannan said:617 votes? Close, ever so close!
(I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)
What happened regarding the two polls showing Labour 19% ahead?0 -
Vote Tory, get Ed?TGOHF said:Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.
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Never underestimate UKIP again Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:617 votes? Close, ever so close!
(I was way out in my prediction for Election Game - 3,204!)
What do you think of the new design of the Tube?0 -
if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.manofkent2014 said:Lab 41%
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling0 -
Well it's been a terrible night for the Tories / Labour / Libdems (delete as appropriate)0
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The thing is I can't see anyone wanting to go to sleep with David Cameron in order to wake up with Ed Miliband!0
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Lib Dems held their deposit, brilliant result for them !manofkent2014 said:Well it's been a terrible night for the Tories / Labour / Libdems (delete as appropriate)
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Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.
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Poor Priti is making a fool of herself!0
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I thought Priti Patel was one of the more enlightened Tory MP's before tonight. She's really gone down in my estimation.0
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You hit the nail on the head with that post Southern Observer I just cannot see how the current Labour Party is going to be able to motivate their Scottish voters to turn out in the same numbers as they did back 2010. And that is going to be a real problem for them at the 2015 GE, if you cannot motivate your heartlands, how are you going to get out the vote where it matters in the marginals?SouthamObserver said:
Greetings from the New York.
It strikes me that the party most damaged by the Heywood opinion polls was probably Labour. The turnout looks to be well below GE levels - which are low enough- and it is unlikely that it was UKIP voters staying at home.
Labour's problem in the North is not UKIP, it is the total lack of interest its voters have in actively supporting the party.0 -
What on earth are you going on about?JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.0 -
Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.0 -
Err, Political Editor of Sky news???hunchman said:
Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.
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I like it!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Vote Tory, get Ed?TGOHF said:Con got 3,496 - just 600 odd of those for Ukip would have seen them win - lol.
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Yep, he was Economics editor of Channel 4 News, and did a very good job whilst he was there. Who has taken over from him there - Paul Mason?JBriskin said:
Err, Political Editor of Sky news???hunchman said:
Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.0 -
To be very very blunt - sub-continent tories, like TSE, I think will find political life more difficult.manofkent2014 said:
What on earth are you going on about?JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.
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Chris Bryant on SKY News more interested in the collapse of Tory votes rather than Labour doing badly0
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Priti Patel silenced for a minute on Neil suggesting that people might vote UKIP because they want to vote UKIP.0
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8% swing Con->Lab, spookily consistent with the rest of the parliament. Amazing how it doesn't seem to matter what parties are running...manofkent2014 said:Change from 2010
Lab +1
UKIP +36
Con -15
LD -17
Grn +30 -
9am this morning October 1974 General Election results programme - BBC Parliament0
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Somebody (nearly) beat me to itPulpstar said:Vote Tory, get Labour in Heywood !
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I do not know.hunchman said:
Yep, he was Economics editor of Channel 4 News, and did a very good job whilst he was there. Who has taken over from him there - Paul Mason?JBriskin said:
Err, Political Editor of Sky news???hunchman said:
Was surprised that Faisal left Channel 4. Very much got his finger on the pulse.JBriskin said:
Only going to get more difficult for the Azn's from here on in.manofkent2014 said:Priti Patel has been bloody awful in her interviews tonight. If she's supposed to be the future of the Tory right god help them!
At the very least everyone knows Faisal knows his stuff.
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I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .anotherDave said:
if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.manofkent2014 said:Lab 41%
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling0 -
These things are pretty formulaic. You could hardly say "I know Ed really sucks all the time - his middle name is Dyson - but he has a heart of gold, and is a keen animal lover, which is legal in several middle eastern countries and the Sudan."Speedy said:
"This victory is a vote of confidence on Ed Milliband"marke09 said:was that the worst winning speech ever?
Yeap, it was the worst.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4748292.stm0 -
We've been saying that for the last couple of hours!Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The LD, Green, and Con numbers are all close to the result. It's only Lab and UKIP that break ranks.MarkSenior said:
I doubt it . The Lord Ashcroft poll for example had 47% of the voters in H and M as 100% certain to vote . The actual turnout was just over 10% lower . Rather than any last minute Lab to UKIP switching it is more likely that UKIP supporters turned out to vote and Labour voters stayed at home .anotherDave said:
if the Heywood polls were right, there must have been a lot of Lab>UKIP switching in the past week.manofkent2014 said:Lab 41%
UKIP 39%
Con 12%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014#Polling0
