politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect
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Ukip got the Big mo - f-ing pb tory amatuers0
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Yes, I expect so, but on such a low turnout UKIP could run them quite close.Socrates said:They'll still get home safely I'm sure.
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It's a possible theory - certainly the Tories had the best-reported conference. But I've not seen anything to shake my September theory that all the conferences would produce modest bounces that would subside: 90+% of voter opinion is just too dug in. The one Labour 38% you're referred to looked like an outlier, and I suspect the latest YG is an outlier the other way, with a modest LibDem bounce added in. If the by-elections don't change anything, I think we'll just emerge with Labour 3-4 ahead, as before.HYUFD said:Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now
Will the by-elections do something? Dunno. UKIP should do fairly well in H&M and win Clacton easily, but may have expectation management problems if they don't win H&M or really romp Clacton. The Tories will lose a seat, Labour should hold but it's bound to be a smaller majority, and the LibDems could easily lose both deposits.
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Am out tonight, can I collect my winnings on rev oswald yet? The turncoat vanquished?0
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JohnO
You don't need to be a genius to see the Tories haven't won a majority for 22 years.0 -
Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.0 -
Lab 733 Con 642 UKIP 277 Justice 10MarkSenior said:Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet
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Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.AndreaParma_82 said:36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton
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The weather was pretty bad in Heywood today. It looks like that's depressed turnout a bit, which has probably hit Labour's vote more than the other parties.0
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Was it confusing Srapheap? Just macro I feel.0
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The difference is that UKIP means this seat isn't as safe as it used to be.___Bobajob___ said:Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.
What were you saying about complacency?
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When we looked at this a few weeks ago I think the general consensus was that anything after the New Year probably wouldn't trigger a by-election. Working backwards the vote has to be held within 27 days of the writ being moved and the writ normally should be moved within 3 months of the seat becoming vacant but this can be extended to 4 months if the poll would otherwise be held very close to a GE.AndyJS said:
When David Taylor MP died on Boxing Day 2009 it was decided that no by-election would take place even though the general election was four and a half months away. So it looks like any defections from December onwards wouldn't require a by-election.TGOHF said:
I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".RodCrosby said:
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down
So approx 5 months in total from the seat becoming vacant is the accepted maximum time.0 -
Richard
UKIP aren't able to win parliamentary seats from Labour. They are going to win 2 from the Tories. At the general election they are going to end up winning a few more of you as well.0 -
Ahhh they have a break at the count in Clacton, result by 2 am.0
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The standard way of defining that result would be Lab gain from Con, not UKIP.MarkSenior said:
Lab 733 Con 642 UKIP 277 Justice 10MarkSenior said:Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet
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Is the exact turnout available for Clacton ? There were a few over/under 50.0000% bets running on this..0
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UKIP's initial estimate of 30% now edged up to 35% or so now - This Week0
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David Coburn in the backround in Heywood.0
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The GOP said today they wouldn't let Orman caucus with them because he's a liberal Democrat at heart. Seems a bold move. I have to say, as things are now, it looks like the GOP are almost certainly going to win the Senate back. They need three from North Carolina, Louisiana, Kansas, Colorado, Alaska and Iowa. Landrieu just replaced her campaign manager in Louisiana so must be looking at some terrible internal polls. Begich is six points behind in Alaska. Kansas is very right wing and undecideds should break for Roberts. That's your three, and polling looks favourable for the Republicans in both Iowa and Colorado, which have both swung right.Tim_B said:Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.0 -
Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems0
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Sorry to disappoint you kippers but it ain't going to happen....and you'll lose the referendum in 2017 as well.Speedy said:0 -
John O No, Umunna maybe Cooper. If Miliband PM almost certainly Boris Tory leader, slight chance May0
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Discussion on This Week saying LDs prefer coalition with Con again after 2015, not Lab.
I find this amazing - I always thought it was 95% certain LD would go with Lab (if they had a genuine choice) because:
1) LD are left of centre - Ashdown clearly said they would have gone with Lab last time if numbers had worked (ie genuine choice).
2) Desire to even it up - ie make it 1-1.0 -
Russia accusing Bulgaria of "betrayal" for buying Western jets:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/bulgaria-rejects-russian-accusation-of-disloyalty-over-wanting-western-warplanes-/508678.html0 -
Lagarde suggesting the Eurozone could be the new Japan, as if it wasn't obvious already:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/09/imf-eurozone-japan-economic-lagarde-recession-germany0 -
Why do you think the Tories didn't have sessions on Energy and Business at their conference. They are keeping Vince and Ed's seats warm for them!MikeL said:Discussion on This Week saying LDs prefer coalition with Con again after 2015, not Lab.
I find this amazing - I always thought it was 95% certain LD would go with Lab (if they had a genuine choice) because:
1) LD are left of centre - Ashdown clearly said they would have gone with Lab last time if numbers had worked (ie genuine choice).
2) Desire to even it up - ie make it 1-1.
Vote Tory get Nick Clegg0 -
Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!0 -
Trying to eat, talk to my wife, and type at the same time - I started about Kansas but ended up talking about S Dakota! My apologies.HYUFD said:Tim B Socrates S Dakota is also seeing an independent a close second. N Carolina is leaning Democrat, Iowa and Colorado too close to call, if the Clintons campaign in Arkansas that could also help the Dems
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Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.Speedy said:0 -
Lab out to 1.05 in Heywood!!!
Could UKIP have a chance?0 -
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.Tim_B said:Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.0 -
MikeL Surely the LDs will go with the largest party0
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Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:
http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.0 -
She really is a very dangerous lady indeed. On economics she hasn't a clue. Remember she trained as a lawyer. Deflation is ready to assert its grip from October next year....with utterly devastating results.Socrates said:Lagarde suggesting the Eurozone could be the new Japan, as if it wasn't obvious already:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/09/imf-eurozone-japan-economic-lagarde-recession-germany0 -
But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through English legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafeningMikeL said:Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!0 -
What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?Speedy said:
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.Tim_B said:Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.0 -
Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...Socrates said:Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:
http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.
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Abstention on English votes might be enough if the Tories were say within 10 of an overall majority and the SNP had over 20 MP's. All depends on the numbers!manofkent2014 said:
But would the SNP break their rule of not voting on English matters (there is no guarantee the Tories would have a majority of English seats) . Not much point having a coalition with the SNP if they cannot vote through the majority of the bills and if the Tories used the SNP to force through legislation the screams of hypocrisy would be deafeningMikeL said:Andrew Neil saying SNP might do a confidence and supply deal with Con - if Con gives them Income Tax + some oil revenues.
Cash ALWAYS talks!!!0 -
I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.JohnO said:
Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.Speedy said:0 -
I meant to put a "not" in there!JBriskin said:
Socrates - I'm going to have to call you up here - it's a bilingual nation...Socrates said:Harvard study suggests there's a lot of support for Kiev among Russian-speaking Ukrainians:
http://www.voanews.com/content/harvard-study-shows-russian-speaking-ukrainians-backing-kyiv/2476908.html
Not really a surprise, considering language and national identity are the same thing. If they were pro-Russian, it would be like English speaking Welshmen supporting England over Wales.0 -
Hardly. Just rather confident that the Tories will remain in power, quite possibly with an overall majority. I have longstanding bets with tim to that effect and I expect to collect.Speedy said:
I think you are petrified about anyone else than Cameron being Tory leader.JohnO said:
Put as many names as you like but Cameron will remain PM despite your best endeavours to replace him by Miliband. You are that petrified by the prospect of a referendum.Speedy said:
Assuming George Osborne does not stand to be leader, I would put money on Sajid Javid to be Cameron's successor.0 -
True, the victor would end up being one of a handful never to take their seats (assuming they were not re-elected at the GE).corporeal said:
But surely you couldn't be an MP of a dissolved parliament?RodCrosby said:
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
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TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal
Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/10/nigel-farage-keep-hiv-positive-migrants-out-britain
Suppose Nige is dog-whistling, or just going off on one. Wonder what the odds of Carswell leaving UKIP again before the GE are?0 -
Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.
Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through0 -
Right now its GOP 51 DEM 48 with 3 independents, if that independent in South Dakota takes the lead and wins then one of the independents will determine who controls the senate.Socrates said:
What odds will you give me that the GOP will regain control?Speedy said:
The republicans have still some chances to win the senate, but with fielding old tired and corrupt establishment candidates it will be very difficult.Tim_B said:Kansas is looking interesting. After the Democrat pulled out it turned into a straight race beween Orman (I), and Roberts (R).
Orman has held a healthy lead in what should be a Republican state. However his campaign is famous for not announcing events and then posting photos on social media.
Maybe folks are wising up because today for the first time Roberts held a 5% lead in a poll (moe 3.5%). It's only 1 poll and it may be a outlier.
But if the Republicans have to divert money and effort into what should be a safe state, who knows what November will bring.
Pat Roberts and Thom Tillis are prime examples.
So what about the odds? Right now 50/50, the independents might go with the Democrats or the Republicans or if it still ends 50 seats each the VP casts the deciding vote.0 -
Still at 1.05 currently:MikeL said:Lab out to 1.05 in Heywood!!!
Could UKIP have a chance?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/heywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party0 -
I'll say yes Smarmy - I'm not an MP0
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removed!0
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And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General ElectionIOS said:Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.
Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through0 -
"England's most important regional capital." - fuck that.___Bobajob___ said:
Rather better than Leeds Central by-election for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.AndreaParma_82 said:36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton
Isn't that a fairly normal byelection turnout for a Lab heartland seat these days? The turnout in Manchester Central, just around the corner, was 18%. On that day the party which didn't get its vote out was the Tory Party - recording the princely sum of 700 odd ballots in the heart of England's most important regional capital.0 -
Pressler is just 3% behind the republican and 4% ahead of the democrat.HYUFD said:TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal
Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power
It could be any of the 3.0 -
I remember the Leeds Central by-election, a former RE teacher at my school was Tory candidate0
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@The_Woodpecker - I presume you mean east?0
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CentCom just announced that there have been 14 air strikes on Kobani over the last 2 days. That's it. 14. What is the point?
This confirms the conjecture that many people here have (a poll yesterday said that 58% of Americans support 'more than air strikes') - this operation is in response to the pressure on Obama to 'do something' to protect vulnerable Democrats and take the pressure off himself.
This is a glorified fireworks display for purely political reasons, and Obama's heart is not in the fight.0 -
One thing I'm seeing in the past few house and senate election (off cycle elections but also in the polls) is that the Libertarians and Independents are gaining ground, it is not unusual to see them above 5% or even 10%, that is a very big achievement in a strong 2 party american system. They are slowly getting the increasing NOTA vote.0
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There are some indications that they will caucus with the Dems.Speedy said:
Pressler is just 3% behind the republican and 4% ahead of the democrat.HYUFD said:TimB Though S Dakota also seeing Independent Pressler rising. Anyway, hope you enjoy your family evening meal
Socrates/Speedy It could well be that Independents Orman and King hold the balance of power
It could be any of the 3.0 -
NP I think your byelection predictions are generally right.0
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Count in Clacton delayed, grrrrr.0
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ThisWeek also talking of Carswell win, but talk too of 'silent Tories' who ended up voting for Watling rather than switching to UKIP with Carswell0
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BBC Heywood speculation
Lab 45% of the vote
UKIP 35% of the vote0 -
Labour 45%, UKIP 35% expected in Heywood.0
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Clacton Gazette @ClactonGazette
#ClactonByElection 5398 votes were cast in the Brightlingsea county council by-election - a 36.5% turnout. They will be counted tomorrow.
I think turnout might had a spillover from the Clacton by-election.0 -
If UKIP win, will that lead to a Clactonasm?0
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Farage seemed to be hinting at 25-30% majority in Clacton on Sky...0
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45% is solid for Labour.
UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.0 -
Labour have given up in th South.manofkent2014 said:
And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General ElectionIOS said:Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.
Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through
Whatever happened to One Nation?0 -
Nigel
We just gained a seat of UKIP in Crawley!0 -
@Tim_B
The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building......
One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.0 -
Michael Dugher trotting out some pretty desperate arguments! And 45% in Heywood and Middleton is poor for Labour when you compare it to their stunning by-election victories before 1997.0
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A council seat?IOS said:Nigel
We just gained a seat of UKIP in Crawley!
How many seats do you expect Labour to win in the South at the GE?0 -
51.2% in Clacton...0
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That is why UKIP shouldn't target Labour seats, apart from the odd one like Grimsby or perhaps Rotherham.IOS said:45% is solid for Labour.
UKIP vote just the anti Labour vote finding one home.
In Labour seats, Labour will see its vote rise even by a bit, not falling like in Tory or LD seats.0 -
Tories have been smashed in Clacton
Not going to be putting of defectors!0 -
What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
@JohnO, well said.AndyJS said:Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.
JohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
Nigel
Enough for us to win a majority. Something the Tories are going to avoid doing for at least 3 decades.0 -
Speedy Indeed0
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If they dropped many bombs then there would be an increased chance of your '1 bomb' scenario.Smarmeron said:@Tim_B
The Kurds have pushed ISIS back into some buildings on the outskirts of town, There is a fair chance that retreating ISIS will try to rally at one building......
One bomb can cause a lot of damage if they did that, and orderly retreat is not something they will have practiced.
A bombing campaign is B52s and carpet bombing, cruise missiles, not seven drops a day.
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Pulpstar Labour's majority was 13% in 2010, so Miliband will have done worse than Brown in Heywood0
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Yep I can't wait for that night on here too.manofkent2014 said:
And if UKIP win Rochester , the whole of North Kent opens up to them at the General ElectionIOS said:Cold hard reality of the ground campaign coming up here.
Reckless is going to win as well. The UKIP boost from this will be enough to push him through
Diane James putting Greg Hands and Dugher in their place. Good to have a by-election special on tonight - it most certainly deserves it!0 -
Speedy
UKIP targetting Labour seats is kinda good for Labour. Makes lazy Labour seats work harder and destroys our opponents even more. If you are anti Labour in the north its now UKIP or nothing.0 -
@fitalass - we're talking about 200k as opposed to >16Mfitalass said:What on earth possessed you to bet on the Clacton turn out being higher than the GE when its nothing more than a UKIP stunt?! Normally its very rare to see turn out for a by-election get within touching distance of GE turnout? And as it happens, we have a GE coming up in just a few months, I suspect that the voters of Clacton will turn out in far greater numbers to make their views known at that election.
@JohnO, well said.AndyJS said:Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.
JohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
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Labour's majority was also 10% in Heywood in 1983, a Tory landslide year
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Labour majority under 1000 in Heywood... Sky0
