politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elect
Just got back from an enjoyable holiday near Malaga to find my copy of the Politicos Guide to GE2015 waiting for me. Like its predecessor on the 2010 election I’ve contributed a chapter on by-elections in this parliament the text of which was finalised before Douglas Carswell made his dramatic switch and resigned forcing today’s by-election.
Comments
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Turbulent times.0
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UKIP will fail against Labour. Again.
Vote silly. Get Milli.0 -
A terrrrible night for the conservatives.0
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Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …0 -
Peter Kellner: Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.-1
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britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Liberal Democrats fighting for their deposit at H&M count. More likely than not that they've lost it.0 -
QT isn't much fun for the Kippers so far.0
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World's 3 biggest economies for last 2,000 years.
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21623758-chinas-back?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/chinasback0 -
Manchester Evening News says UKIP source hoping for a 30-35% score in Heywood and Middleton0
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Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.0 -
Second against Labour just isn't good enough. Hoovering up anti Labour voters in "safe" Labour areas is certainly not that big.0
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"Turnout 50% in Clacton" - knife edge for bets.0
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supposedly 50% turnout in Clacton: via Dimbleby on QT0
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How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.0 -
Socrates
Debt not matter then? Looking forward to Cameron's right wing dash panic0 -
Sleep well Mike! I'm driving across our United Kingdom tonight as a three-week anniversary celebration of its survival. Kinda. Will be listening to the result come in on the World Service - if I'm not napping at the time.0
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It has to be funded either by cutting public services, or stopping / slowing down debt reduction.Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.0 -
Peter
KIP now 94/1 to take Heywood.
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By not spending as much. That's good enough for me.Hugh said:
It has to be funded either by cutting public services, or stopping / slowing down debt reduction.Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
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Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
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Harriet refuses to apologise for Mid Staffs on QT.0
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They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
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Hugh
He can't help it. He is like a gambler doubling down. He thinks he's just one more hand away from winning.0 -
I hope everyone has Blue Nun on standby.0
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Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my sourceHugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.0 -
Reducing the benefits cap to £23k.___Bobajob___ said:
Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
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What are you going on about?___Bobajob___ said:
Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.0 -
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …0 -
Cameron is ready to destroy the right wing.
Split
Split
Split0 -
They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
They are surging one day, then putting their assets in Swiss bank accounts the next.0 -
Well, the obvious answer is that it's an outlier, we need to wait for Sunday's YouGov. There has been a 2% or so LibDem conference bounce (that's not insignificant - it means their likely vote has gone up by about 30%) and UKIP is a couple of percent higher than it has been with YouGov. Others are high as well, at 11%. I guess we need to wait for the conference season to unwind, although that will be further complicated by UKIP's publicity from today's by-elections.___Bobajob___ said:
Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my sourceHugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
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UKIP now expecting its highest ever by-election score in a Labour seat - Britain Elects0
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You have to wonder whether the Libs will ever be in a better position - cut and run for an autumn poll would be my adviceJohnLilburne said:
Well, the obvious answer is that it's an outlier, we need to wait for Sunday's YouGov. There has been a 2% or so LibDem conference bounce (that's not insignificant - it means their likely vote has gone up by about 30%) and UKIP is a couple of percent higher than it has been with YouGov. Others are high as well, at 11%. I guess we need to wait for the conference season to unwind, although that will be further complicated by UKIP's publicity from today's by-elections.___Bobajob___ said:
Apparently you have to go back more than a year - to last Christmas to find a lower Tory YouGov score. Not sure that is right - Twitter is my sourceHugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
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UKIP are now 1.3 in Rochester with Betfair:
UKIP 1.3
Con 3.5
Lab 29
Oth 550
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/nav?navNodeId=EVENT_TYPE:2378961#/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=23789610 -
Neither has been evident in the posts of any Conservative supporters on PB. You make things up the whole time. For example you said on the previous thread:___Bobajob___ said:
They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.
We were assured on here that the Tory lead was sticky.
No you weren't. Almost everyone has been saying we should wait and see how things settle in the weeks after the conference season is over.0 -
Blackpool Waterloo Is a Con hold
Con 406 UKIP 372 Lab 347 LD 34 BNP 170 -
Richard
Posters on here have been saying the Tory lead is preordained let alone sticky!0 -
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.0 -
Hi everyone,
Labour and Ukip both 1.01 on the Irish one for reference...0 -
HYUFD
Is it worth a seat?0 -
I was referring to HYUFD's posts (although I am sure I could find others)Richard_Nabavi said:
Neither has been evident in the posts of any Conservative supporters on PB. You make things up the whole time. For example you said on the previous thread:___Bobajob___ said:
They say Tories have but two states of mind, complacency and panic.
We were assured on here that the Tory lead was sticky.
No you weren't. Almost everyone has been saying we should wait and see how things settle in the weeks after the conference season is over.
I have already pulled his leg about it, he seemed to take it well enough.0 -
1.3 Aaaaaaaaarrrrhhh - I would have taken that. Maybe.0
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Oh that's Rochester. My apologies.0
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UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known0
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Looks like I've lost my bet on turnout in Clacton being higher than the general election if the 50% reports are correct.0
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Don't Think We Need The URLs for Rochester, AndyJS0
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It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win and would mean we would never get a say on EU membership. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
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Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?Socrates said:
It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!!Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.0 -
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.0 -
IOS Worth a big cut in Labour majority0
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Yes indeed!IOS said:Richard
Posters on here have been saying the Tory lead is preordained let alone sticky!0 -
That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?Socrates said:
It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.0 -
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
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Bacon butty strategy (copyright Briskin) - don't write it off.Socrates said:
That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?Socrates said:
It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
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Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now0
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The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
HYUFD
And you get nothing for a cut majority in this game.0 -
The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.MarkSenior said:UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known
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No it won't be Ed. It will be Cameron. He is entirely responsible for the mess he has led his party into and if Labour win in May the only person to blame for that will be Cameron.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, put it this way: it's not Ed who might put Ed into No 10, is it?Socrates said:
It is hilarious seeing Tories convince themselves of an ever more extreme position in their group think. It started off with UKIP surge potentially help Labour a bit. Then it became UKIP dangerously not caring about the side effect of strongly helping Labour. Then it was them being reckless in continuing as a party because their existence definitely would be solely responsible for a Labour win. Now Farage has a deliberate purposeful aim of putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 and actively oppose an EU referendum!!Richard_Nabavi said:
They will lay out detailed plans, in the Autumn Statement.Hugh said:The Tories haven't told us how it would be funded.
Of course no-one expects Labour to say anything about anything. Labour supporters have a very, very nasty shock in store if, God forbid, Farage does succeed in his aim of putting Ed into No 10. Those panic spending cuts will be vicious, and the sense of betrayal will be massive.
It's amazing what people can convince themselves of when they don't want to examine other factors at play.
As for the referendum, that is undeniable. Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is voting in a way which makes a referendum in the next parliament less likely. That is simple fact.0 -
What are you smoking? Farage boasts about it. It's part of the fantasy UKIP spin about destroying the Conservative Party and regrouping the right. It's bonkers, of course, but that's what they say they are hoping to do.Socrates said:That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.
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I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".RodCrosby said:
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down0 -
Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the postJohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
Full result UKIP 662 Con 312 Lab 196 LD 130JohnLilburne said:
The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.MarkSenior said:UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known
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Richard T
Well said. About time Tories like Nabavi took responsibility for their party failing. It's surely so non right wing to not take responsibility for outcomes.0 -
Oh well, I suppose that's (marginally) better than your throwing a strop and flouncing off in self righteous indignation.___Bobajob___ said:
Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the postJohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
I don't disagree. The Labour score at 35% is miserable, as I said below.HYUFD said:Bobajob I remember on the night after Cameron's speech many were sceptical when I said there would be a Tory lead after, there was, overturning a significant Labour lead. That Labour is on 35%, still 3% down on where they were on that Wednesday evening, shows that something has still changed, even if the initial bounce has declined for now
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36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton0
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But surely you couldn't be an MP of a dissolved parliament?RodCrosby said:
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.0 -
And despite ed's approval ratings it appears kippers do not care about that outcome. Not enough to not destroy Cameron at any rate. It's looking pretty dire for the Tories if contests in the ge play out even slightly similar to today, even if it is hardly a ringing endorsement for ed.GIN1138 said:UKIP will fail against Labour. Again.
Vote silly. Get Milli.
Night all
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Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.AndreaParma_82 said:36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton
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Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?
http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/0 -
Richard
Surely all our vote is postal votes? I get confused with these Tory theories.0 -
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.JohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
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You might say their flame continues to burn brightly in Rushmoor JohnJohnLilburne said:
The previous councillor resigned after being convicted of arson - not quite how it sounds, it seems it was more of a domestic dispute where he set fire to some of his ex-partner's clothes. Seems the electorate didn't hold it against UKIP - they have gained a reputation of doing lots of grass roots councilloring.MarkSenior said:UKIP have held Rushmoor West Heath they polled 662 votes remainder of votes not yet known
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IOS Nothing but the satisfaction of ensuring no Labour gloating over Clacton0
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TGOHF
I would like Cameron lovers like Nabavi and co to take responsibility for splitting the right and halving Tory membership.0 -
Indeed, sir, one of the Elect, and a most discerning and discriminating poster. Doors to manual.RobD said:
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.JohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
He expects people to be impressed with everything.AndyJS said:Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?
http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/0 -
YawnJohnO said:
Oh well, I suppose that's (marginally) better than your throwing a strop and flouncing off in self righteous indignation.___Bobajob___ said:
Laughable on so many levels. I started laughing at "relatively few" and was in stitches by the end of the postJohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???
0 -
When David Taylor MP died on Boxing Day 2009 it was decided that no by-election would take place even though the general election was four and a half months away. So it looks like any defections from December onwards wouldn't require a by-election.TGOHF said:
I think the Kippers are hoping to claim that because a GE is close they don't want to have a bye election - aka the "chicken strategy".RodCrosby said:
I doubt if voting in the by-election had commenced it would be declared void.corporeal said:
Would that only be the case if the dissolution went through after close of poll?RodCrosby said:
Strictly-speaking, the date of the dissolution...___Bobajob___ said:
When is the latest a byelection can be held, prior to the GE?TGOHF said:Local democracy didn't last long..
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse 8m8 minutes ago
New Ukip stategy: Tory MPs urged to defect at Christmas and campaign til May as Ukip http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11152627/Ukip-urges-MPs-to-defect-en-masse-without-by-elections.html …
Any later and the poll would be countermanded, which last occurred in 1924.
I guess they could also tempt Con MPs standing down0 -
Please link me to Farage boasting that his aim is Ed Miliband as PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
What are you smoking? Farage boasts about it. It's part of the fantasy UKIP spin about destroying the Conservative Party and regrouping the right. It's bonkers, of course, but that's what they say they are hoping to do.Socrates said:That you think that fact - that Ed Miliband could be very lucky due to a series of events - means that Nigel Farage has a deliberate aim of putting him in power shows how silly your thinking has gotten.
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Labour have gained Crawley Southgate from UKIP ( elected as Con ) No figures yet0
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TGOHF
The Tories cannot win a majority in Britain. The party is screwed.0 -
They'll still get home safely I'm sure.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not a good omen for Labour. That suggests they haven't got their vote out.AndreaParma_82 said:36.02% turnout in Heywood and Middleton
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Nostradamus strikes backAndyJS said:Is Guido expecting people to be impressed by his forecast of the winner in each seat?
http://order-order.com/2014/10/09/by-election-results/0 -
I doff my cap to the (who must be) peer-in-waiting JohnO.JohnO said:
Indeed, sir, one of the Elect, and a most discerning and discriminating poster. Doors to manual.RobD said:
I'm a PB Tory.. out and proud.JohnO said:
The relatively few openly declared Tory supporters through thick and thin have indeed been consistently unfazed one way or another, so yes, you are making things up.___Bobajob___ said:Richard - you are saying neither complacency nor panic have ever been evident among PB Tory supporters.
And you are accusing me of making things up???0 -
"@Joe_Oliver UKIP campaign manager says 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified' #HeywoodAndMiddleton"
https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_oliver0 -
UKIP campaign manager in Heywood and Middleton: 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified'0
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Turnout 36.02% in Heywood & Middleton.0
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Would they put us back into deficit? Do you have a source for that?___Bobajob___ said:
Because they would put us back into deficit - either that or slash services (which would reduce aggregate demand).Socrates said:
How are the taxes unfunded if they happen after we're in surplus?Hugh said:Disastrous night for the Tories.
Their last big gamble, Cameron's Conference unfunded tax cuts and pitch to the Right, is crumbling into dust in the polls.
And they're about to lose their 86th safest seat. By a landslide.
Taxi for Cameron.
At least ten senior Tories have been asked how they are going to fund them. Not a single one has been able to give a straight answer.
Reducing aggregate demand need not happen once you're off the zero-bound interest rates, as we surely will be come 2018.0 -
Bobajob Indeed, we must look tonight to see what the UKIP momentum is from these by-elections0
