Boris Johnson backer Chris Heaton-Harris says: “We do have the numbers - the Rishi camp knows we have the numbers, the Penny camp knows we have the numbers.”
But asked if Johnson will definitely run, he says: “Yeah … I think so.”
So Sunak has the clear support of well over half Tory MPs. Truss was a lame duck from day one in part because she didn't have any substantial support from MPs (for herself, or her policies) and MPs didn't see her as somebody they had collectively agreed upon and felt free to oppose her.
And Johnson (who has already demonstrated as PM a failure to retain the confidence of MPs and ability to maintain a functioning government and with more scandals to come) and his supporters are wandering about saying "100MPs are enough".... They should, and i mean this LITERALLY, be locked up.
If Johnson wins, the big question is: GE 2022 or GE Q1 2023?
Not one of the poshos out yesterday (and there were many) could believe how anyone "with half a brain" could vote for Boris.
This completes my anecdotal evidence that it is the Hyacinth Bouquets of this world that are the Boris supporters. Or those indeed with half a brain. How many of those are there I wonder. Not enough I'm guessing. Even if there is a contest.
There is a decent-sized "Bring back Boris" chunk in the electorate to be sure. Safe to say they are low-information voters. Lots round me - but I'm in the Midlands so my anecdotal evidence may not be representative.
I see Guido has put up a lengthy and pissy defence of using anonymous names in his spreadsheet.
To my mind it misses the point. It may well be the case those numbers are real, I can believe it.
But if the point is not to publicly influence the contest due to being a whip etc, then emailing guido does that even if your name is withheld. Given the numbers it does give a high degree of confidence in which one is going which way, and is designed to sway the contest.
So its poor from them more than Guido. They could nominate without anyone knowing.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
Need a law that says if a PM resigns, MPs must find a suitable successor to recommend to the King within 7 days. If none can be found a GE is triggered
That’s unenforceable because a PM could make clear they are going to resign, and a party have a long leadership contest, before the outgoing PM officially resigns.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Pretty sure all ex MPs make lots of money from speaking events, even May etc.
They do, including May. I used to hire speakers for business conferences I organised. I couldn't afford a tenth of the fees they command and my audiences didn't want them either (I know because I asked). I struggle to see the attraction, certainly for the type of conferences I organised, yet the demand is there. I had some actually great speakers at a fraction of the price.
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
Given either Sunak or Johnson increase the Tory voteshare by at least 10%+ in that JL Partners poll last night I doubt that is true but it still looks like only Sunak will get over the 100 MP backing threshold
Last time against Truss and now against Boris, Sunak always seems to be the one reacting to things, slow to respond, with his opponents setting the stage. Oddly passive.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Yeah, referendum campaigns generally seem to be able to work this kind of stuff out though.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Not one of the poshos out yesterday (and there were many) could believe how anyone "with half a brain" could vote for Boris.
This completes my anecdotal evidence that it is the Hyacinth Bouquets of this world that are the Boris supporters. Or those indeed with half a brain. How many of those are there I wonder. Not enough I'm guessing. Even if there is a contest.
There is a decent-sized "Bring back Boris" chunk in the electorate to be sure. Safe to say they are low-information voters. Lots round me - but I'm in the Midlands so my anecdotal evidence may not be representative.
I would say the Midlands is extremely representative.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
You’ve made some great posts this year. But calling Sunak “hard right” somewhat spoils your record. And I say that as someone who hopes he fails.
In the context of the Conservatives, he is indeed a moderate. When compared to the country... not so much. So from the point of view of pitching to the electorate, and indeed objectively on several policies he backs, I stand by the phrase.
Hard right is not correct. It’s the fallacy of bbc bias. Just because people who don’t agree with you complain from both extremes, doesn’t mean you are in the middle. The country as a whole is pretty much split centre left and centre right, arguably tending centre left. Sunak is to the right of that position, but hard right usually implies elements of nationalism, racism and low taxes.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
There is still a route through for Penny Mordaunt, if you squint hard enough. It involves Boris throwing in the towel early enough for his supporters to regroup and nominate Mordaunt as the only remaining not-Rishi candidate. The deadline for nominations is tomorrow afternoon, so some time today should do it.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
But the MPs really don't want a contest, nor to go anywhere near the members. So it'll be sorted tomorrow if humanly possible.
The rot wouldn't stop. If Boris is lying about already having 100 and falls short his backers will be apoplectic. Theyll provide endless fodder for the opposition about lack of mandate if the members even are cut out
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
Rishi whilst not Johnson is not a good egg. Another hyper privileged politician serving himself and a narrow group of self. interests. Boris is not the problem, he’s a symptom. Sunak is another symptom.
The only one with half a foot in the real world is Mordaunt, but she is too junior to control the factions.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
There is still a route through for Penny Mordaunt, if you squint hard enough. It involves Boris throwing in the towel early enough for his supporters to regroup and nominate Mordaunt as the only remaining not-Rishi candidate. The deadline for nominations is tomorrow afternoon, so some time today should do it.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
But the MPs really don't want a contest, nor to go anywhere near the members. So it'll be sorted tomorrow if humanly possible.
The rot wouldn't stop. If Boris is lying about already having 100 and falls short his backers will be apoplectic. Theyll provide endless fodder for the opposition about lack of mandate if the members even are cut out
They are permanently apopletic.
You deal with them exactly the same way you would a two-year-old throwing a tantrum.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Yeah, referendum campaigns generally seem to be able to work this kind of stuff out though.
Not so sure. Consider even the Brexit referendum. I reckon the actual Vote Leave would have done better without having to constantly say “we don’t agree with Farage”. Also the Scottish referendum where all Tories had to hide away and pretend Labour was in power.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
It works for someone who sees themself on the way up; for someone on their way down, not so much.
Has any former Deputy Prime Minister gone on to greater things?
No, because it's a bauble for people who probably once dreamed of becoming PM but are never going to make it. My point is that it has no value for someone who has already made it to the top job.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
He called for Boris to go after getting a promotion from him. What an utter snake.
And the idea Boris is contrite when he has been pretty clear he was ousted due to traitors and the standards stuff is baloney is certifiable.
The Tory party on the rebound fromTruss nearly jumped into bed with their dodgy ex Boris and is now considering smooth talking Rishi.
Penny Mordaunt is clearly too nice and not exciting enough for a serious relationship.
She is a fake, pretends she has been in the navy , wears submariner badges etc and yet did 27 days behind a desk pretending, just another average lying Tory waster.
I think that's a bit harsh Malc but I do broadly agree with you. She has disappointed me greatly. She has wavered and changed her previously stated views and she was underwhelming in the tv debates.
The doubts raised about her previously now seem pertinent. She helicoptered to the Hay-on-Wye festival and left people scratching their heads as to whether she was really connected with reality sufficient to be leader. Then there were the briefings about her role in the trade dep't. Lord Frost was withering about her, saying she didn't have a grasp on detail. Others described her as lazy and 'part-time Penny.'
I don't think she's the answer the party needs right now.
It has to be Rishi Sunak for common sense. They will still lose the next election but he will staunch the flow. More importantly for me and the vast majority of the country, he will stabilise the economy. And he has shown a compassionate understanding of need with his measures to help people.
If Boris Johnson pursues his usual egocentricity, and the membership get a say, then the party and the country are in deep, deep, trouble. Possibly to outdo the chaos of Liz Truss' tenure.
I wouldn't put it past the tory party right now to contrive to do the unthinkable.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Pretty sure all ex MPs make lots of money from speaking events, even May etc.
They do, including May. I used to hire speakers for business conferences I organised. I couldn't afford a tenth of the fees they command and my audiences didn't want them either (I know because I asked). I struggle to see the attraction, certainly for the type of conferences I organised, yet the demand is there. I had some actually great speakers at a fraction of the price.
PS pretty sure @turbotubbs meant PMs not MPs and I agreed with him on the basis of that assumption.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Lol what a shill. The sooner we get hacks like Zahawi away from the front benches the better
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
Rishi whilst not Johnson is not a good egg. Another hyper privileged politician serving himself and a narrow group of self. interests. Boris is not the problem, he’s a symptom. Sunak is another symptom.
The only one with half a foot in the real world is Mordaunt, but she is too junior to control the factions.
Yup. A Sunak Govenrment will soon look like what it is. A group of rich kids governing in the interests of their mates and with little understanding of the less fortunate in society. Cameron/Osborne redux but with less empathy than Cameron could channel.
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
Rishi whilst not Johnson is not a good egg. Another hyper privileged politician serving himself and a narrow group of self. interests. Boris is not the problem, he’s a symptom. Sunak is another symptom.
The only one with half a foot in the real world is Mordaunt, but she is too junior to control the factions.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that is deranged. I don't personally rate Sunak particularly highly, but no fair-minded observer would say he serves himself and a narrow group.
I see Guido has put up a lengthy and pissy defence of using anonymous names in his spreadsheet.
To my mind it misses the point. It may well be the case those numbers are real, I can believe it.
But if the point is not to publicly influence the contest due to being a whip etc, then emailing guido does that even if your name is withheld. Given the numbers it does give a high degree of confidence in which one is going which way, and is designed to sway the contest.
So its poor from them more than Guido. They could nominate without anyone knowing.
And both his potential bias and certain commercial interest in the outcome are pretty obvious.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Is this a joke? "When i was Chancellor i saw a preview of Boris 2.0???".
Zahawi became Chancellor on, checks notes, 5th July 2022. On, checks notes, 7th July 2022 he said Johnson should resign. Later that day Johnson announced intention to resign, and to all intents and purposes ceased taking decisions as Prime minister.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Boris 2.0 what nonsense . Contrite and honest !
And wasn't it about 2 days after he was appointed Chancellor that he was telling Boris to resign? Zahawi deserved a lot of credit for the vaccine roll out but he made a complete arse of himself in both taking the job of Chancellor and the little he did whilst he had it.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
TLDR: 'I made such a tit of myself last time that he's the only one who will offer me anything'
The catch is that Johnson bears grudges and probably won't keep whatever promise he's made, anyway
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
You've managed to be both boring and correct there, Roger.
I reckon Boris's own poor behaviour has contributed to his lack of progress in this race. He has just returned from a luxury holiday. While parliament was sitting. While there was a national crisis. While he should have been doing his job as an MP, at least. And it's hardly the first time. Of course he's entitled to holidays, but it's not as if there aren't enough days when Parliament is in recess. He's taking the piss, and even his fans can see that.
If I were a Tory MP, or a voter in Uxbridge, even if I liked Boris, I'd be telling the lazy, entitled sod to fuck right off. Caribbean holiday while I'm working my socks off and struggling to pay the bills? Nah.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Oh I agree with that too. One sniff of power and Labour will find reasons to oppose PR.
PR was always going to help a nationalist right-wing party to get 10% of seats in the Commons. It was/is silly of the liberal-left to believe that they would be the only beneficiaries of the introduction of proportional representation.
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
Rishi whilst not Johnson is not a good egg. Another hyper privileged politician serving himself and a narrow group of self. interests. Boris is not the problem, he’s a symptom. Sunak is another symptom.
The only one with half a foot in the real world is Mordaunt, but she is too junior to control the factions.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that is deranged. I don't personally rate Sunak particularly highly, but no fair-minded observer would say he serves himself and a narrow group.
Nah. For example, I guess Richard Sharp became bbc chair on talent and knowledge of the media alone.
If you look at Sunak, he is no man of the people. He is the centre of big money.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
Some 13 of the 53 MPS backing Boris Johnson in the Tory leadership contest welcomed his resignation in July. Two even stepped down from government roles in protest at the then-Prime Minister's leadership.
The Tory party on the rebound fromTruss nearly jumped into bed with their dodgy ex Boris and is now considering smooth talking Rishi.
Penny Mordaunt is clearly too nice and not exciting enough for a serious relationship.
She is a fake, pretends she has been in the navy , wears submariner badges etc and yet did 27 days behind a desk pretending, just another average lying Tory waster.
I think that's a bit harsh Malc but I do broadly agree with you. She has disappointed me greatly. She has wavered and changed her previously stated views and she was underwhelming in the tv debates.
The doubts raised about her previously now seem pertinent. She helicoptered to the Hay-on-Wye festival and left people scratching their heads as to whether she was really connected with reality sufficient to be leader. Then there were the briefings about her role in the trade dep't. Lord Frost was withering about her, saying she didn't have a grasp on detail. Others described her as lazy and 'part-time Penny.'
I don't think she's the answer the party needs right now.
It has to be Rishi Sunak for common sense. They will still lose the next election but he will staunch the flow. More importantly for me and the vast majority of the country, he will stabilise the economy. And he has shown a compassionate understanding of need with his measures to help people.
If Boris Johnson pursues his usual egocentricity, and the membership get a say, then the party and the country are in deep, deep, trouble. Possibly to outdo the chaos of Liz Truss' tenure.
I wouldn't put it past the tory party right now to contrive to do the unthinkable.
Me too.
The Spectre of Trump looms large in Johnson's character. I fear, as the economy crashes and the poor die of hunger and hypothermia Johnson makes his grip on power stronger through various nefarious means, and the bulk of the almost 80 majority (including independent - thrown out of the party Tories and the DUP) would allow him enough scope to do what the hell he wants. And of course he is a lucky General, and some external factor, out of his control, could accidentally bolster his Churchillian claims.
I remain very scared until such time he is out of the race.
Some of those backing Johnson seem to be living in la la land .
Seemingly ignoring the privileges committee and the possibility that the Tories will need to find another leader next year .
Some?
Any MP who has seen the turmoil in the markets and the wider country in recent months and yet is still prepared to risk another PM being booted out on his arse by the Committee of Privileges in maybe weeks is a complete and utter twat.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
PR was always going to help a nationalist right-wing party to get 10% of seats in the Commons. It was/is silly of the liberal-left to believe that they would be the only beneficiaries of the introduction of proportional representation.
That would definitely be a silly thing to believe, I'm not sure who you're thinking of who believed it though?
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
Some of those backing Johnson seem to be living in la la land .
Seemingly ignoring the privileges committee and the possibility that the Tories will need to find another leader next year .
Some?
Any MP who has seen the turmoil in the markets and the wider country in recent months and yet is still prepared to risk another PM being booted out on his arse by the Committee of Privileges in maybe weeks is a complete and utter twat.
But we already knew that many Conservative MPs were complete and utter twats.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Fail. Johnson is incapable of uniting the country.
I reckon Boris's own poor behaviour has contributed to his lack of progress in this race. He has just returned from a luxury holiday. While parliament was sitting. While there was a national crisis. While he should have been doing his job as an MP, at least. And it's hardly the first time. Of course he's entitled to holidays, but it's not as if there aren't enough days when Parliament is in recess. He's taking the piss, and even his fans can see that.
If I were a Tory MP, or a voter in Uxbridge, even if I liked Boris, I'd be telling the lazy, entitled sod to fuck right off. Caribbean holiday while I'm working my socks off and struggling to pay the bills? Nah.
This accords with his political style though, he is usurping the conventional notions of what a 'good' politician is, because they have become absurd. He has demonstrated that he can be popular despite of all this, if he gets certain decisions correct. You may not like it at all, but that is just how he is, and why he is an interesting politician.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Sadly true, but morally wrong. Anyone could use the same argument as to why a dictator shouldn't allow elections.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Pretty sure all ex MPs make lots of money from speaking events, even May etc.
They do, including May. I used to hire speakers for business conferences I organised. I couldn't afford a tenth of the fees they command and my audiences didn't want them either (I know because I asked). I struggle to see the attraction, certainly for the type of conferences I organised, yet the demand is there. I had some actually great speakers at a fraction of the price.
PS pretty sure @turbotubbs meant PMs not MPs and I agreed with him on the basis of that assumption.
Yes slip of the finger - I initially said PMs and meant PMs second time too.
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
And some at least of the membership will be conscious that having got it wrong last time....
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
It does tell us one thing. The Triple Lock is safe this side of a Labour Government.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
Some of those backing Johnson seem to be living in la la land .
Seemingly ignoring the privileges committee and the possibility that the Tories will need to find another leader next year .
Some?
Any MP who has seen the turmoil in the markets and the wider country in recent months and yet is still prepared to risk another PM being booted out on his arse by the Committee of Privileges in maybe weeks is a complete and utter twat.
But we already knew that many Conservative MPs were complete and utter twats.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
It does tell us one thing. The Triple Lock is safe this side of a Labour Government.
You think the next Manifestoes won't pledge to keep it?
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
The Tory party on the rebound fromTruss nearly jumped into bed with their dodgy ex Boris and is now considering smooth talking Rishi.
Penny Mordaunt is clearly too nice and not exciting enough for a serious relationship.
She is a fake, pretends she has been in the navy , wears submariner badges etc and yet did 27 days behind a desk pretending, just another average lying Tory waster.
I think that's a bit harsh Malc but I do broadly agree with you. She has disappointed me greatly. She has wavered and changed her previously stated views and she was underwhelming in the tv debates.
The doubts raised about her previously now seem pertinent. She helicoptered to the Hay-on-Wye festival and left people scratching their heads as to whether she was really connected with reality sufficient to be leader. Then there were the briefings about her role in the trade dep't. Lord Frost was withering about her, saying she didn't have a grasp on detail. Others described her as lazy and 'part-time Penny.'
I don't think she's the answer the party needs right now.
It has to be Rishi Sunak for common sense. They will still lose the next election but he will staunch the flow. More importantly for me and the vast majority of the country, he will stabilise the economy. And he has shown a compassionate understanding of need with his measures to help people.
If Boris Johnson pursues his usual egocentricity, and the membership get a say, then the party and the country are in deep, deep, trouble. Possibly to outdo the chaos of Liz Truss' tenure.
I wouldn't put it past the tory party right now to contrive to do the unthinkable.
It is a choice of two chancers for sure, neither will do anything for the country, their vested interests will flourish though.
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
And some at least of the membership will be conscious that having got it wrong last time....
I think there is an error in this type of thinking, because last time Boris was not on the ballot. The suggestion is that Boris is popular with the membership in a way that Truss and Sunak were not.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
Over 65s have voted mostly Conservative at every general election in the last 50 years except 1997.
They are now as Conservative as under 30s are Labour
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
He got 43% against Truss. Johnson isn’t Truss.
And the "Johnson has a mandate" argument may persuade many.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
Over 65s have voted mostly Conservative at every general election in the last 50 years except 1997.
They are now as Conservative as under 30s are Labour
One recent poll had 6% of the under 50s voting conservative.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
He has not exactly made a compelling case to be kept in the next Cabinet, has he?
Is this Boris Johnson's ultimate revenge on MPs for kicking him out?
I have an awful sense of dread that it may be. He gets to 100, insists on standing, and then we really are in deep doggy-do.
It's unthinkable that he could command The House whilst a significant majority of his parliamentary party oppose him leading them. I'm guessing he knows this and doesn't care.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
He has not exactly made a compelling case to be kept in the next Cabinet, has he?
For a while I thought he was smarter than this.
For a while.
Are you still backing Penny? Does she still have a chance?
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Rishi will be bricking it and give Boris all of what he wants to ensure he does not have a contest where he is likely to come 2nd again. He is desperate to take the merde sandwich on offer.
Comments
Was Liz Truss a cat’s paw for a Boris Johnson comeback?
https://twitter.com/maureendowd/status/1583870444930678784
To my mind it misses the point. It may well be the case those numbers are real, I can believe it.
But if the point is not to publicly influence the contest due to being a whip etc, then emailing guido does that even if your name is withheld. Given the numbers it does give a high degree of confidence in which one is going which way, and is designed to sway the contest.
So its poor from them more than Guido. They could nominate without anyone knowing.
Oh well, that rainforest was pretty while it lasted.
See new Tweets
Conversation
Nadhim Zahawi
@nadhimzahawi
·
6m
I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2
Nadhim Zahawi
@nadhimzahawi
When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better.
With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
even are cut out
They will need a new leader by Spring yet again.
The only one with half a foot in the real world is Mordaunt, but she is too junior to control the factions.
You deal with them exactly the same way you would a two-year-old throwing a tantrum.
I am just a decade away, and I already find myself agreeing with Steve Baker, so maybe 70 is too late.
And the idea Boris is contrite when he has been pretty clear he was ousted due to traitors and the standards stuff is baloney is certifiable.
The doubts raised about her previously now seem pertinent. She helicoptered to the Hay-on-Wye festival and left people scratching their heads as to whether she was really connected with reality sufficient to be leader. Then there were the briefings about her role in the trade dep't. Lord Frost was withering about her, saying she didn't have a grasp on detail. Others described her as lazy and 'part-time Penny.'
I don't think she's the answer the party needs right now.
It has to be Rishi Sunak for common sense. They will still lose the next election but he will staunch the flow. More importantly for me and the vast majority of the country, he will stabilise the economy. And he has shown a compassionate understanding of need with his measures to help people.
If Boris Johnson pursues his usual egocentricity, and the membership get a say, then the party and the country are in deep, deep, trouble. Possibly to outdo the chaos of Liz Truss' tenure.
I wouldn't put it past the tory party right now to contrive to do the unthinkable.
Zahawi became Chancellor on, checks notes, 5th July 2022. On, checks notes, 7th July 2022 he said Johnson should resign. Later that day Johnson announced intention to resign, and to all intents and purposes ceased taking decisions as Prime minister.
This is a good (and rather heartbreaking ) video by Vice News of the Russian 'mobilisation'.
https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1584099350048694273?s=20&t=ctmbDp2Fkii7m-hkzqvuig
The catch is that Johnson bears grudges and probably won't keep whatever promise he's made, anyway
Is that a first?
If I were a Tory MP, or a voter in Uxbridge, even if I liked Boris, I'd be telling the lazy, entitled sod to fuck right off. Caribbean holiday while I'm working my socks off and struggling to pay the bills? Nah.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs
2 Farage and RefUK
3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour
2 The SNP
3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
"Any man who must say 'I am the king' is no true king"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sJY7BTIuPY
If you look at Sunak, he is no man of the people. He is the centre of big money.
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mps-backing-boris-johnson-25329652
The Spectre of Trump looms large in Johnson's character. I fear, as the economy crashes and the poor die of hunger and hypothermia Johnson makes his grip on power stronger through various nefarious means, and the bulk of the almost 80 majority (including independent - thrown out of the party Tories and the DUP) would allow him enough scope to do what the hell he wants. And of course he is a lucky General, and some external factor, out of his control, could accidentally bolster his Churchillian claims.
I remain very scared until such time he is out of the race.
Any MP who has seen the turmoil in the markets and the wider country in recent months and yet is still prepared to risk another PM being booted out on his arse by the Committee of Privileges in maybe weeks is a complete and utter twat.
He would be "a guaranteed disaster ... bound to implode, taking down the whole government with him".
Baker has backed Rishi.
https://news.sky.com/story/sunak-backer-labels-johnson-a-guaranteed-disaster-as-ally-for-ex-pm-claims-we-have-the-numbers-12728055
Polling outside of the six weeks before a General Election (or other major voting event) is bobbins.
The Conservatives won't get 15% in the next General Election.
They wouldn't have got that even if Truss has fought on.
Everyone in Bootle hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
https://news.sky.com/story/sunak-backer-labels-johnson-a-guaranteed-disaster-as-ally-for-ex-pm-claims-we-have-the-numbers-12728055
The pensioners of today we're the young voters of 1975, and they were notably more Eurosceptic than their parents and grandparents;
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/
Not as Eurosceptic as they became, but notably more so than their parents.
PS Whoops just seen you have answered that. Did I miss it (blind as a bat) or did you edit your post?
Members, I'll grant you.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
If the Tories do, Labour will.
They are now as Conservative as under 30s are Labour
For a while I thought he was smarter than this.
For a while.
I have an awful sense of dread that it may be. He gets to 100, insists on standing, and then we really are in deep doggy-do.
It's unthinkable that he could command The House whilst a significant majority of his parliamentary party oppose him leading them. I'm guessing he knows this and doesn't care.