Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
That maybe the case but he didn’t have to come on tv and say this . His comments re Johnson is what will really hurt and I would be shocked if they don’t influence other MPs .
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
Massive development it seems to me.
It’s all looking like a Monday coronation.
Johnson running has probably helped ensure that. Its made Sunak the stop-Johnson candidate, instead of allowing Penny to flourish as the stop-Sunak candidate. 😟
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
He did breach a rule, and that's a mark against him. But on a scale from that to persistent breaches and long long history of a lack of care for facts, rules or basic personal standards, well, beggars can't be choosers.
At the least there is the possibility at least he will try to avoid further such issues. Boris will be emboldened to not care about rules or standards if MPs nominate him, since it would demonstrate they will have to defend him no matter what if he wins.
I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.
My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.
Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).
He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.
And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.
The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
How does he overcome the Parliamentary suspension and the recall?
He only wins the next GE if some third party quirk of history allows him to claim a world stage victory. The fall of Putin springs to mind, but presumably by then he's already been turfed out again as a result of the Privileges Committee's sanctions.
Looks like we're getting Rishi on Monday. Johnson won't get a job - won't want to be bound by collective cabinet responsibility and wants ££££>
So why fly back from his hols? As others have noted he could be given DPM or Chairman, spare time to earn the money and its only 2 years because he won't want to do oppo. It means he ultimately leaves govt on his own terms.
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked. I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
I think it was gone. A Johnson that hadnt allowed parties to happen, and had more sense over Pincher et al might have rode out the economic storms. But that’s not Johnson. He is, at heart, a shit, out for himself. You meet him, and if your interests and hopes align, you might think him your best friend and ally. But when those interests diverge, you are of no more use to him. I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it must be Boris'
Fuck. It should be misconduct in public office to give people like that as say in government.
I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.
My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.
Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).
He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.
And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.
The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
How does he overcome the Parliamentary suspension and the recall?
He only wins the next GE if some third party quirk of history allows him to claim a world stage victory. The fall of Putin springs to mind, but presumably by then he's already been turfed out again as a result of the Privileges Committee's sanctions.
He might not get as big a sanction as expected. Wilful misleading is hard to prove if your brazen enough to deny reality, and if 'mere' misleading is the charge, which is very easy to prove, how much sanction is applied for that?
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
The FS and CoE might not be impressed at being bumped from Chevening/Dorneywood. Wasn't there a spat a few years back about having to time share?
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it's got to be Boris'
Hmm, one of 180,000, and one selected by the media (?) for some reason? Can you see the issue? #selectionbias #cherrypicking
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked. I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
I think it was gone. A Johnson that hadnt allowed parties to happen, and had more sense over Pincher et al might have rode out the economic storms. But that’s not Johnson. He is, at heart, a shit, out for himself. You meet him, and if your interests and hopes align, you might think him your best friend and ally. But when those interests diverge, you are of no more use to him. I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
...except of course the economy is going to be anything but fine.
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
That maybe the case but he didn’t have to come on tv and say this . His comments re Johnson is what will really hurt and I would be shocked if they don’t influence other MPs .
It's weird, as none should really be influenced by others at this point. They all know what Boris is, and either they're ok with that, as the Rees-Moggs and Wallaces are, or they're not. No one pointing to his past electoral success or his lack of integrity is bringing up a fresh point for MPs.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
Very good point. Deputy PM and Minister for Ukraine. But there is the issues of the standards committee and him needing beer vouchers.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it must be Boris'
Fuck. It should be misconduct in public office to give people like that as say in government.
Just tell his local association he described Thatcher as a failed experiment and he'll be expelled faster than you can say 'Truss out.'
Small thread on the Tory leadership contest, and a few polling / non polling observations. The @IpsosUK leader ratings data is some of the best data out there. The difference between the PM and LOTO ratings has correctly predicted the direction of every election since 1979.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
I question whether extrapolating like this makes any sense. People who declare their support early are different to the people yet to declare. The latter will not necessarily split like the former.
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked. I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
I think it was gone. A Johnson that hadnt allowed parties to happen, and had more sense over Pincher et al might have rode out the economic storms. But that’s not Johnson. He is, at heart, a shit, out for himself. You meet him, and if your interests and hopes align, you might think him your best friend and ally. But when those interests diverge, you are of no more use to him. I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
...except of course the economy is going to be anything but fine.
Good point. I suspect in five years it will be ok, but two is a stretch!
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Is there any reason at all to doubt that those who are sufficiently committed to nominate, will have declared their position by now? Even if this mysterious principle of anonymity, that allows people to declare their true intention to Guido and no one else, would allow them to nominate by tomorrow?
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
Agreed. But I think he is completely unelectable due to the points in your first paragraph. I had already determined to not vote Tory during Boris's tenure, and Liz did nothing to change my mind, it will take a lot to move me back to Tory. Sometimes a party needs to be in opposition for a while.
So was Johnson. That didn't stop him winning an election.
My personal view is the Tories are going to lose the next election anyway due to factors that are largely outside their control. High energy prices due to the war in Ukraine, a sluggish economy due to China's ongoing chaos, an unsettled and fractious electorate due to COVID. They have mostly, in fact, managed these as well as could be expected.
They deserve to lose the next election for their other mistakes. The chaos in education caused by Gove's reforms. The structural weaknesses in the NHS caused by Lansley. Both of these exacerbated by chronic underfunding which leaves the systems acutely understaffed and the building stock in a very bad way. The attempt to borrow to cut taxes, of which enough said. Eat Out To Help Out (which was Sunak's idea, after all) rather than a serious attempt to upgrade our digital infrastructure to guard against the return of COVID. The constant cuts to capital investment which means our gas, communications (virtual and physical) water and power grids are years behind where they need to be.
Will Labour be better? Quite possibly not. After all, lack of investment in infrastructure and the grotesque mismanagement of what investment there was was a feature of the Blair/Brown years. But they will be different. And reminding politicians that power is not God-given but has to be earned is in itself part of ensuring governance is never intolerable.
An excellent post, which gets to the nub of Conservative woes.
Incumbency during hard times does not help to garner votes, and perhaps something that some of us are inclined to forget, Conservative mismanagement did not begin with Kwarteng's budget.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it's got to be Boris'
Hmm, one of 180,000, and one selected by the media (?) for some reason? Can you see the issue? #selectionbias #cherrypicking
Vox pops are not to be trusted.
#nothingisevidenceexceptspreadsheetsfallacy
Statistics and confidence limits. One from 180,000 doesn’t really give you much in the way of confidence of your conclusion.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Surely Johnson would not want any other job than PM. Having held the post it would be a humiliation to have to answer to someone else and, crucially, it would also significantly reduce his capacity to earn money. For a grifter like him, what role other than PM is worth the cash sacrifice?
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
Dont do a deal and Boris and his cronies will constantly undermine Sunak. Do a deal and Boris and his cronies will still constantly undermine Sunak, whilst disingenuously claiming not to, and preventing the public even having a chance to see this as turning a corner.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
I question whether extrapolating like this makes any sense. People who declare their support early are different to the people yet to declare. The latter will not necessarily split like the former.
Agree. Plus, a lot of the late declarations look like payroll vote? On the one has that makes them disproportionately Truss but on the other it gives them a stake in wanting to have the best shot at power.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Actually, I'm OK with the payoff, but I would link it to them not taking any non-charitable role. If they chose to earn megabucks on the international lecture circuit, or as non-exec directors of Goldman Sachs, fair enough, but as you say they don't need our money.
If they choose to use their contacts to try and raise funds to build schools in Malawi and get pharmaceutical companies to donate anti-retrovirals or make them at cost for people earning less than a dollar a day, paying themselves peanuts, then making sure they can do that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Most wouldn't, of course. There are more Johnsons than Carters in the world.
Surely Johnson would not want any other job than PM. Having held the post it would be a humiliation to have to answer to someone else and, crucially, it would also significantly reduce his capacity to earn money. For a grifter like him, what role other than PM is worth the cash sacrifice?
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
Dont do a deal and Boris and his cronies will constantly undermine Sunak. Do a deal and Boris and his cronies will still constantly undermine Sunak, whilst disingenuously claiming not to, and preventing the public even having a chance to see this as turning a corner.
Yup. Boris is toxic. Undermining Tory leaders is what he has done for over 10 years. He can’t help himself.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Thanks Ben.
Even if the 111 is right Boris still loses. I appreciate Roger's point that the Conservative Party Members are bigger nobs than Momentum but even they won't foist an unwanted Leader on their Parliamentary Party again.
Game just about over, I think, and the Tory Party lives on, I think. Must admit I would have gained some ghoulish satisfaction from watching its death throes under Boris, but we do need a proper Opposition and I am not sure Ian Blackwood and his kilted crowd could really provide that.
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked. I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
I think it was gone. A Johnson that hadnt allowed parties to happen, and had more sense over Pincher et al might have rode out the economic storms. But that’s not Johnson. He is, at heart, a shit, out for himself. You meet him, and if your interests and hopes align, you might think him your best friend and ally. But when those interests diverge, you are of no more use to him. I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
...except of course the economy is going to be anything but fine.
Good point. I suspect in five years it will be ok, but two is a stretch!
Short term we are in for a it of pain and it is coming quickly. Longer term will be okay.
Where I work were already planning for the downturn. Our order book is fine until second quarter next year where it is down by 15% compared to where it was this time last year.
We’re running down inventory, releasing temps and I expect redundancies next year.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
I agree. I'm thinking, a buy position on the £ first thing Monday morning in anticipation that the Tories sort themselves out for once. On condition it looks like the clown won't blow everything up.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Surely Johnson would not want any other job than PM. Having held the post it would be a humiliation to have to answer to someone else and, crucially, it would also significantly reduce his capacity to earn money. For a grifter like him, what role other than PM is worth the cash sacrifice?
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
Dont do a deal and Boris and his cronies will constantly undermine Sunak. Do a deal and Boris and his cronies will still constantly undermine Sunak, whilst disingenuously claiming not to, and preventing the public even having a chance to see this as turning a corner.
Yup. Boris is toxic. Undermining Tory leaders is what he has done for over 10 years. He can’t help himself.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
It works for someone who sees themself on the way up; for someone on their way down, not so much.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"
Boris Johnson backer Chris Heaton-Harris says: “We do have the numbers - the Rishi camp knows we have the numbers, the Penny camp knows we have the numbers.”
But asked if Johnson will definitely run, he says: “Yeah … I think so.”
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
I question whether extrapolating like this makes any sense. People who declare their support early are different to the people yet to declare. The latter will not necessarily split like the former.
I suppose we could break down how the ratio of declarations has shifted overtime.
Still wouldn't address that thise keeping schtum could be thinking anything.
I prefer looking at the percentage Boris needs of those who haven't gone public yet. I think it's something like 25%.
1 in 4 seems very doable. Into the 30s and I think he falls short. But it looks tight.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
That being said, given so many of the decisions these people make turn out to be wrong I'm not sure it's quite the disaster you frame it as.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Means test the pay off. If an outgoing PM would fall into penury then they get it.
Surely Johnson would not want any other job than PM. Having held the post it would be a humiliation to have to answer to someone else and, crucially, it would also significantly reduce his capacity to earn money. For a grifter like him, what role other than PM is worth the cash sacrifice?
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
Dont do a deal and Boris and his cronies will constantly undermine Sunak. Do a deal and Boris and his cronies will still constantly undermine Sunak, whilst disingenuously claiming not to, and preventing the public even having a chance to see this as turning a corner.
Yup. Boris is toxic. Undermining Tory leaders is what he has done for over 10 years. He can’t help himself.
He hates the Tory Party. Honestly.
He’s done more damage to it than Labour ever managed.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
Need a law that says if a PM resigns, MPs must find a suitable successor to recommend to the King within 7 days. If none can be found a GE is triggered
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Is there any reason at all to doubt that those who are sufficiently committed to nominate, will have declared their position by now? Even if this mysterious principle of anonymity, that allows people to declare their true intention to Guido and no one else, would allow them to nominate by tomorrow?
What I would say Chris is that last time round, the total increased - even during the voting rounds.
Now of course those MPs had previously backed a candidate - we just didn't know.
I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.
My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.
Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).
He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.
And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.
The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
There is still a route through for Penny Mordaunt, if you squint hard enough. It involves Boris throwing in the towel early enough for his supporters to regroup and nominate Mordaunt as the only remaining not-Rishi candidate. The deadline for nominations is tomorrow afternoon, so some time today should do it.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
You'd think the only job he'd be interested in is Foreign Secretary.
Yep @TSE is right. The Mail on Sunday should know better. Their journalists probably do. But they publish it with sensational headlines anyway. Why? Because objective reporting is of no interest to them.
They bear a significant part of the blame for this country's descent into chaos.
Given you have to be a brainless moron to read the mail , says a lot about England at present.
Surely Johnson would not want any other job than PM. Having held the post it would be a humiliation to have to answer to someone else and, crucially, it would also significantly reduce his capacity to earn money. For a grifter like him, what role other than PM is worth the cash sacrifice?
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
Dont do a deal and Boris and his cronies will constantly undermine Sunak. Do a deal and Boris and his cronies will still constantly undermine Sunak, whilst disingenuously claiming not to, and preventing the public even having a chance to see this as turning a corner.
Yup. Boris is toxic. Undermining Tory leaders is what he has done for over 10 years. He can’t help himself.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
Need a law that says if a PM resigns, MPs must find a suitable successor to recommend to the King within 7 days. If none can be found a GE is triggered
A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Very much this.
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
“has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked. I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
I think it was gone. A Johnson that hadnt allowed parties to happen, and had more sense over Pincher et al might have rode out the economic storms. But that’s not Johnson. He is, at heart, a shit, out for himself. You meet him, and if your interests and hopes align, you might think him your best friend and ally. But when those interests diverge, you are of no more use to him. I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
...except of course the economy is going to be anything but fine.
Good point. I suspect in five years it will be ok, but two is a stretch!
Depends on a lot of things including how well it is managed.
I'd expect Sunak/Hunt to do a decent job, and Starmer in due course too.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
She's only there as a backstop, and will settle for a job in the top team. There's an overwhelming desire to coalesce around one candidate; just a shame that Mordaunt probably has better personal qualities - and campaigning ability when the election comes - than Sunak
No, hypothetical polling was right in summer 2019 that Boris could win against Corbyn by winning back Conservative voters lost to the Brexit Party with 69% saying Johnson could get Brexit done, was right in 2005 that Cameron would get 36% of the vote at the next election and was right in 1990 that Major or Heseltine would lead Labour.
It was also right in 1994 that Blair could win the next election for Labour. A hypothetical Brexit outcome poll is not a named leader poll so it is misleading to pretend it was. Boris was absolutely committed to getting Brexit done and that won him the 2019 election.
Whilst everyone understands that the last few months have been absolutely disastrous for the UK, i don't think many appreciate how much of a role the complete absence of any govt decision making has been in that. From the moment Johnson resigned, the Govt (with the possible exception of the MoD) basically stopped taking decisions. This is at a time when a whole host of decisions have been needed, whether it be plans to tackle energy/inflation, the wider economy, health, education, decisions on spending in local govt (there are big decisions needed on social rents for example), public sector pay... list goes on and on. And this has obviously then been exacerbated by an extra couple of wasted months with Truss (inc. the Queens death when inexplicably everything just stopped).
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
Need a law that says if a PM resigns, MPs must find a suitable successor to recommend to the King within 7 days. If none can be found a GE is triggered
Simple and fair.
Problem with that is that it can easily be got round if the PM doesn't resign/announce formally their intention to resign until they know their successor.
By the way, can anyone with any influence reading this blog please get Starmer to start using the Wilson/Blair “x years of Tory misrule” line please? For old time’s sake.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
Could you find a bigger bunch of rogues if you tried David. Incompetent , grifting bunch of lying cheating losers. If they are the answer we are truly fcuked.
Last time against Truss and now against Boris, Sunak always seems to be the one reacting to things, slow to respond, with his opponents setting the stage. Oddly passive.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
There is still a route through for Penny Mordaunt, if you squint hard enough. It involves Boris throwing in the towel early enough for his supporters to regroup and nominate Mordaunt as the only remaining not-Rishi candidate. The deadline for nominations is tomorrow afternoon, so some time today should do it.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
But the MPs really don't want a contest, nor to go anywhere near the members. So it'll be sorted tomorrow if humanly possible.
Last time against Truss and now against Boris, Sunak always seems to be the one reacting to things, slow to respond, with his opponents setting the stage. Oddly passive.
No, hypothetical polling was right in summer 2019 than Boris could win against Corbyn, was right in 2005 that Cameron would get 36% of the vote at the next election and was right in 1990 that Major or Heseltine would lead Labour.
It was also right in 1994 that Blair could win the next election for Labour. A hypothetical Brexit outcome poll is not a named leader poll so it is misleading to pretend it was. Boris was absolutely committed to getting Brexit done and that won him the 2019 election.
There is therefore no reason to suspect polls showing Johnson and Sunak slashing the Labour poll lead to be wrong
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
Could you find a bigger bunch of rogues if you tried David. Incompetent , grifting bunch of lying cheating losers. If they are the answer we are truly fcuked.
Well, you could look at Holyrood, Malcolm. They make this shower look good.
I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Pretty sure all ex MPs make lots of money from speaking events, even May etc.
If the Tories annoint Rishi tomorrow after giving Boris a derisory number of votes their rehabillitation will be well underway. The public have short memories and self interest often wins the day. I don't say they'll win the next election but if he turns out to be as competent and honest as he appears and the Party cleanses itself of all traces of Johnson then at least they'll be in the race
Not one of the poshos out yesterday (and there were many) could believe how anyone "with half a brain" could vote for Boris.
This completes my anecdotal evidence that it is the Hyacinth Bouquets of this world that are the Boris supporters. Or those indeed with half a brain. How many of those are there I wonder. Not enough I'm guessing. Even if there is a contest.
No, hypothetical polling was right in summer 2019 than Boris could win against Corbyn, was right in 2005 that Cameron would get 36% of the vote at the next election and was right in 1990 that Major or Heseltine would lead Labour.
It was also right in 1994 that Blair could win the next election for Labour. A hypothetical Brexit outcome poll is not a named leader poll so it is misleading to pretend it was. Boris was absolutely committed to getting Brexit done and that won him the 2019 election.
There is therefore no reason to suspect polls showing Johnson and Sunak slashing the Labour poll lead to be wrong
Last time against Truss and now against Boris, Sunak always seems to be the one reacting to things, slow to respond, with his opponents setting the stage. Oddly passive.
It was probably a mistake for him to agree to meet Boris and entertain the idea of a deal. Staying aloof and trying to wrap it up was working for him.
The Tory party on the rebound fromTruss nearly jumped into bed with their dodgy ex Boris and is now considering smooth talking Rishi.
Penny Mordaunt is clearly too nice and not exciting enough for a serious relationship.
She is a fake, pretends she has been in the navy , wears submariner badges etc and yet did 27 days behind a desk pretending, just another average lying Tory waster.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
You’ve made some great posts this year. But calling Sunak “hard right” somewhat spoils your record. And I say that as someone who hopes he fails.
In the context of the Conservatives, he is indeed a moderate. When compared to the country... not so much. So from the point of view of pitching to the electorate, and indeed objectively on several policies he backs, I stand by the phrase.
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
Boris Johnson backer Chris Heaton-Harris says: “We do have the numbers - the Rishi camp knows we have the numbers, the Penny camp knows we have the numbers.”
But asked if Johnson will definitely run, he says: “Yeah … I think so.”
So Sunak has the clear support of well over half Tory MPs. Truss was a lame duck from day one in part because she didn't have any substantial support from MPs (for herself, or her policies) and MPs didn't see her as somebody they had collectively agreed upon and felt free to oppose her.
And Johnson (who has already demonstrated as PM a failure to retain the confidence of MPs and ability to maintain a functioning government and with more scandals to come) and his supporters are wandering about saying "100MPs are enough".... They should, and i mean this LITERALLY, be locked up.
I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
It works for someone who sees themself on the way up; for someone on their way down, not so much.
Has any former Deputy Prime Minister gone on to greater things?
Boris Johnson really is a stinking turd. But at least this way the tory party has a chance to flush it away.
Sunak needs to go all out to win and win big with the MPs, which I believe he will. Then the party grandees need to exert maximum pressure on the membership not to behave like dodos signing their own extinction.
I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.
My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.
Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).
He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.
And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.
The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
Interesting predictions.
interesting, but he'll have to do alot better than that if he is to supplant Leondamus.
Comments
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1584084654092492800
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
At the least there is the possibility at least he will try to avoid further such issues. Boris will be emboldened to not care about rules or standards if MPs nominate him, since it would demonstrate they will have to defend him no matter what if he wins.
He only wins the next GE if some third party quirk of history allows him to claim a world stage victory. The fall of Putin springs to mind, but presumably by then he's already been turfed out again as a result of the Privileges Committee's sanctions.
I had a colleague at work like this. Could be charming. A friend got sucked in, thinking the charmer was on his side. I told him to be careful, and sure enough the scales soon fell from the eyes.
The economy in 1997 was fine. The damage had been done already. Same again for the next election.
Using the current named totals:
Sunak 219
Johnson 97
Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals:
Sunak 204
Johnson 111
Mordaunt 40
That's a big endorsement for Rishi. And much stronger language than I thought he'd use.
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
Penny Mordaunt is clearly too nice and not exciting enough for a serious relationship.
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1584089510564225024
It's become very liquid, and now the big money is oscillating around Rishi.
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Incumbency during hard times does not help to garner votes, and perhaps something that some of us are inclined to forget, Conservative mismanagement did not begin with Kwarteng's budget.
If they choose to use their contacts to try and raise funds to build schools in Malawi and get pharmaceutical companies to donate anti-retrovirals or make them at cost for people earning less than a dollar a day, paying themselves peanuts, then making sure they can do that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Most wouldn't, of course. There are more Johnsons than Carters in the world.
Even if the 111 is right Boris still loses. I appreciate Roger's point that the Conservative Party Members are bigger nobs than Momentum but even they won't foist an unwanted Leader on their Parliamentary Party again.
Game just about over, I think, and the Tory Party lives on, I think. Must admit I would have gained some ghoulish satisfaction from watching its death throes under Boris, but we do need a proper Opposition and I am not sure Ian Blackwood and his kilted crowd could really provide that.
Where I work were already planning for the downturn. Our order book is fine until second quarter next year where it is down by 15% compared to where it was this time last year.
We’re running down inventory, releasing temps and I expect redundancies next year.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1583873605842063362?s=61&t=PXhtL2N0yK8MZ25jowrheg
Has Cambridge abandoned debate?
From the way one college has treated me, it certainly seems like it
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-cambridge-abandoned-debate-
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
The usual guff has been put out about "parliament not sitting, conference season etc" as if somehow Govt decision making (including preparatory work for big Govt decisions) normally stops during those periods - when it absolutely doesn't.
And all the problems mounting up this winter (including possibly Covid!) are going to be so much worse as a result of this.
Never again must a party be allowed to be so self indulgent in Government and effectively hijack and/or paralyse the country whilst dealing with its own internal problems. And this needs to be firmly understood by all parties. They can do what they want when in Opposition (although even a lack of a functioning opposition for long periods is dangerous) but not in Government.
I don't particularly hold out much hope of that though...
But asked if Johnson will definitely run, he says: “Yeah … I think so.”
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1584091534378823680
Still wouldn't address that thise keeping schtum could be thinking anything.
I prefer looking at the percentage Boris needs of those who haven't gone public yet. I think it's something like 25%.
1 in 4 seems very doable. Into the 30s and I think he falls short. But it looks tight.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1584092511013945344
What has happened to that age group?
Now of course those MPs had previously backed a candidate - we just didn't know.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1584095120571260928?s=61&t=PXhtL2N0yK8MZ25jowrheg
I'd expect Sunak/Hunt to do a decent job, and Starmer in due course too.
Let's hope Baker is a sign of how things are really moving with MPs.
It was also right in 1994 that Blair could win the next election for Labour. A hypothetical Brexit outcome poll is not a named leader poll so it is misleading to pretend it was. Boris was absolutely committed to getting Brexit done and that won him the 2019 election.
There is therefore no reason to suspect polls showing Johnson and Sunak slashing the Labour poll lead to be wrong
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/13/johnson-leads-hunt-by-two-to-one-in-tory-leader-race-poll
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-11-26-mn-3989-story.html
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/conservative-party-leadership-poll
The last four Sunak backers all backed Truss last time:
Justin Tomlinson
Andrew Lewer
Chris Loder
Steve Baker
Boris has to stop the rot.
Thats assuming he has not already lived up 100.
https://twitter.com/generalstaffua/status/1584071973633921024
I suspect that's right during a honeymoon period. But then... it's the economy stupid.
Not one of the poshos out yesterday (and there were many) could believe how anyone "with half a brain" could vote for Boris.
This completes my anecdotal evidence that it is the Hyacinth Bouquets of this world that are the Boris supporters. Or those indeed with half a brain. How many of those are there I wonder. Not enough I'm guessing. Even if there is a contest.
Lula 1.88
Bolsonaro 2.18
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180434883
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back
Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi
They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long.
Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
And Johnson (who has already demonstrated as PM a failure to retain the confidence of MPs and ability to maintain a functioning government and with more scandals to come) and his supporters are wandering about saying "100MPs are enough".... They should, and i mean this LITERALLY, be locked up.
Boris Johnson really is a stinking turd. But at least this way the tory party has a chance to flush it away.
Sunak needs to go all out to win and win big with the MPs, which I believe he will. Then the party grandees need to exert maximum pressure on the membership not to behave like dodos signing their own extinction.
Modalmais/Futura - B+1 (L+0.4)
Brasmarket - B+4.7 (N/A)
Paraná Pesquisas - L+2.4 (L+3.5)
Ideia - L+4 (N/A)
Datafolha - L+4 (L+5)
All to play for. If it were tomorrow, I would say L+2 (!) based on recent polls