I’d forgotten Brown did this, but as the times reports “[LizTruss] is entitled to issue a resignation honours list, which means allies could be given peerages and knighthoods. Gordon Brown, who served for two years and 318 days, declined to issue such a list.”
As with the lifetime allowance this should be limited to PMs who have formed a government after a GE.
The current system is not right, but that is too far surely. What if there is a plane crash the we after the GE? PM dead, new leader has nearly 5 years…
Easier solution:
Get rid of the Lords. Then it isn't important.
Agree with that. The pay off is wrong too. If a failure like Johnson gets what he is rumoured to be getting for speeches, then outgoing PMs are going to be just fine, thanks.
Disagree with that. Having a publicly paid “office of the former PM” and some security feel fair for those who were around for a while, and mostly for those that won an election (though I think Brown deserves it).
Making mega-bucks from speaking and writing is open to Boris because he speaks and writes well and was the centre of a lot of controversy with global interest. That isn’t true for them all.
Pretty sure all ex MPs make lots of money from speaking events, even May etc.
They do, including May. I used to hire speakers for business conferences I organised. I couldn't afford a tenth of the fees they command and my audiences didn't want them either (I know because I asked). I struggle to see the attraction, certainly for the type of conferences I organised, yet the demand is there. I had some actually great speakers at a fraction of the price.
PS pretty sure @turbotubbs meant PMs not MPs and I agreed with him on the basis of that assumption.
Yes slip of the finger - I initially said PMs and meant PMs second time too.
Yep had me in a panic there. My brain was going 'l agree' and then going 'what have I said, no I don't ' and then 'no he didn't mean that did he?'.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Sadly true, but morally wrong. Anyone could use the same argument as to why a dictator shouldn't allow elections.
Except we are not discussing whether or not we should have democracy, just what form that democracy should take. And plenty of us believe that PR - at least as far as most of the pro-parties would want it - is generally less democratic than what we have now.
Some 13 of the 53 MPS backing Boris Johnson in the Tory leadership contest welcomed his resignation in July. Two even stepped down from government roles in protest at the then-Prime Minister's leadership.
Boris is value at 5 in my opinion. He will scrape over the line to get into the members ballot and then from there it's a bit of a lottery.
You can probably make some money buying when he goes long and then selling when he goes short. I think he is going to fight it out and speculation will move the markets in a disproportionate way. Ideally you want to buy at 6 and sell at 3.
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
He could only manage 43% against a total duffer, he will do any deal Boris wants to avoid another gubbing.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
Kinnock won under 25s 39% to 37% for Thatcher's Tories even in 1987.
You have to go back to 1983 for the last time under 25s voted Conservative
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
More like an unpricipled , no morals, greedy grasping nasty piece of work who would sell his granny for a profit
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
Zahawi either believes that Johnson will win - and so is the person to butter up for a job in the next Cabinet - or he has been rebuffed by Sunak, who has not promised him a place at Cabinet in return for his support.
I'd like to think it was the latter, but I fear it is the former.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce from Labour.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
HYUFD, I know you treat hypothetical polls like the gospel, and you may even be right that they (at the very least) reflect the default position if they came to pass. But your error has always been in thinking that things can't change.
The decision is only a close one if the polls were suggesting that Johnson would have a much higher starting point. EVERY OTHER consideration of who should become leader is against him. Imposed by the membership against the will of the MPs. His track record of leaving scandal and division in his wake (and the KNOWN scandals built in to disrupt any govt over the next few months). The chaos he creates. The high likelihood he won't even be able to form a viable Cabinet/Government.
You're in la la land.
That's even before you start demonstrating that you have any consideration for the good of the country (as opposed to the Conservative Party) in your thoughts.
The irony is that i think the last leadership election was the exception to this where you took strongly against Truss for some reason, even though she didn't do noticeably worse in the polls.
Who will truss and Kwarteng back? Two votes up for grabs, which will unlikely be public. I doubt May will declare, but who will she back out of sushi or Penny?
Some 13 of the 53 MPS backing Boris Johnson in the Tory leadership contest welcomed his resignation in July. Two even stepped down from government roles in protest at the then-Prime Minister's leadership.
Some 13 of the 53 MPS backing Boris Johnson in the Tory leadership contest welcomed his resignation in July. Two even stepped down from government roles in protest at the then-Prime Minister's leadership.
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
Over 65s have voted mostly Conservative at every general election in the last 50 years except 1997.
They are now as Conservative as under 30s are Labour
One recent poll had 6% of the under 50s voting conservative.
No it didn't, only under 25s.
Boris actually won over 39 year olds in 2019. Cameron won over 25s in 2010
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Sadly true, but morally wrong. Anyone could use the same argument as to why a dictator shouldn't allow elections.
Except we are not discussing whether or not we should have democracy, just what form that democracy should take. And plenty of us believe that PR - at least as far as most of the pro-parties would want it - is generally less democratic than what we have now.
Agree with your point. I am just pointing out the logical extrapolation of many. It is no coincidence as to why many who support PR do so because it benefits them and many oppose it for the same reasons. Others however like you and me are pro or anti for logical unbiased reason.
Re the specifics on pro or anti I am strongly opposed to lists even if PR. How do you feel about STV?
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
People keep saying that - and it is certainly true that there has always been a gradient from younger to old on Tory preference over Labour - but for some reason, glossing over the magnitude of the recent shift and huge steepening of the gradient.
Con lead over Lab per age group, vice Mori, since 1987 (earliest election with consistently comparable age groups):
Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"(Again)
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
Is this Boris Johnson's ultimate revenge on MPs for kicking him out?
I have an awful sense of dread that it may be. He gets to 100, insists on standing, and then we really are in deep doggy-do.
It's unthinkable that he could command The House whilst a significant majority of his parliamentary party oppose him leading them. I'm guessing he knows this and doesn't care.
Yes, MPs can govern without member support, but PMs cannot without MPs. He knows it and doesbt care, he just wants to prove he can still win. Which he can.
Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
Extrapolating from Guido's figures up to 357 MPs (rounding brings the total down by 1 or 2):
Using the current named totals: Sunak 219 Johnson 97 Mordaunt 40
Using the named + anonymous totals: Sunak 204 Johnson 111 Mordaunt 40
Surprising that Mordaunt's support seems largely to have evaporated?
Probably that MPs see the need for a coronation and stopping Johnson ahead of supporting Mordaunt again?
Though I understand that some of her supporters from last time are pissed off because she rowed-in behind Truss.
There is still a route through for Penny Mordaunt, if you squint hard enough. It involves Boris throwing in the towel early enough for his supporters to regroup and nominate Mordaunt as the only remaining not-Rishi candidate. The deadline for nominations is tomorrow afternoon, so some time today should do it.
This reasoning would also compel Rishi to buy Mordaunt off before this can happen.
But the MPs really don't want a contest, nor to go anywhere near the members. So it'll be sorted tomorrow if humanly possible.
True but I am nowhere near as convinced as I was that Johnson would now win the membership ballot though it's a risk I would rather not take
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
People keep saying that - and it is certainly true that there has always been a gradient from younger to old on Tory preference over Labour - but for some reason, glossing over the magnitude of the recent shift and huge steepening of the gradient.
Con lead over Lab per age group, vice Mori, since 1987 (earliest election with consistently comparable age groups):
Should not be forgotten Blair won over 65s in 1997
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
All to play for. If it were tomorrow, I would say L+2 (!) based on recent polls
Oh poop! I had assumed based on the long term polling earlier in the year that Bolsonaro was a goner and switched off….
Oh well, that rainforest was pretty while it lasted.
Lula was a really terrible candidate to put up against him. c.40 percent of Brazilians would never support Lula because of the unprecedented levels of corruption associated with his previous governments. A bit like a Johnson of the left.
There is no great enthusiasm for Bolsonaro, and he would surely have lost to a clean skin from the centre left.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
Johnson supporters seem to be assuming that if it goes to the members he wins. I'm not sure. Sunak got 43% last time so doesn't need much of a swing to be elected.
And some at least of the membership will be conscious that having got it wrong last time....
Peter, a significant number of members aren't even "conscious".
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
Before 2010-15 this difference was present but it was much, much smaller than it is now.
For example, in 1997, the Ipsos-MORI "How Britain Voted" survey had a Labour lead 44-31 overall (i.e. +13) and a Labour lead 41-36 in the 65+ age group (i.e. +5). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories was +8 compared to the electorate as a whole.
The latest YouGov has a Labour lead of 56-19 (+37), but a Labour deficit among 65+ of 36-40 (-4). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories is +41 compared to the electorate as a whole (and the 65+ age group is a larger proportion of the whole now, so all things being equal we'd expect this bias to have reduced).
That's a huge difference. It's way beyond young people have always preferred Labour over the Tories. I don't think the triple lock explains it either. Labour were not reluctant in giving handouts to the 65+ age group when they were in office.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
He has not exactly made a compelling case to be kept in the next Cabinet, has he?
For a while I thought he was smarter than this.
For a while.
Zahawi is a bit of a puzzle. Sometimes he seems very sensible, and he was excellent in the vaccine job, but sometimes he seems to be a Grade A twerp.
Labour have gained 20,000 new members since the party conference, I think you have to hand it to Starmer, just by being Starmer, he is regularly polling ahead of the Tories, and now the Labour membership is on the rise again, also the party are now receiving money from high profile donors, that stopped in Corbyns tenure, labour stood on the brink at their last leadership election, a win for Rebecca Long Bailey would surely have been the end for them, whatever happens here on in, the Labour Party owe a debt of gratitude to starmer
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
Unproven. And probably incorrect. It's a hypothetical poll not a regular opinion poll question.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce from Labour.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
HYUFD, I know you treat hypothetical polls like the gospel, and you may even be right that they (at the very least) reflect the default position if they came to pass. But your error has always been in thinking that things can't change.
The decision is only a close one if the polls were suggesting that Johnson would have a much higher starting point. EVERY OTHER consideration of who should become leader is against him. Imposed by the membership against the will of the MPs. His track record of leaving scandal and division in his wake (and the KNOWN scandals built in to disrupt any govt over the next few months). The chaos he creates. The high likelihood he won't even be able to form a viable Cabinet/Government.
You're in la la land.
That's even before you start demonstrating that you have any consideration for the good of the country (as opposed to the Conservative Party) in your thoughts.
The irony is that i think the last leadership election was the exception to this where you took strongly against Truss for some reason, even though she didn't do noticeably worse in the polls.
My gut now is Boris will increase the Conservative party voteshare slightly more than Rishi as he can win redwall voters and stop leakage to Farage Rishi can't.
However I also think the Labour vote would be higher under Boris than Rishi (as would the LD vote in LD target seats) as there would be more tactical voting to keep Boris out than the less marmite Rishi would get.
You are right, my gut that Liz would be a crap leader was more accurate than the polls, though even the hypothetical polls in the summer pre mini budget were not that great for Liz
Interesting to see that in many European countries older voters tend to prefer moderate/mainstream parties and it's young people voting for the more extreme parties on both left and right. The UK is a bit of an outlier.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Well they gave Truss enough support, and look where that got them.
I wonder what their opinion of Labour putting Corbyn into the members vote is...
If Johnson wins then I think we’re in a general election within weeks. He may even decide to trigger one himself during his new leader bounce.
Question whether Labour would want that. Probably a comfortable victory, but they then get stuck with the shit to come in 2023. 2 years of non-disastrous governance under Sunak and Tories getting full blame for the coming squeeze on living standards, then an election win in 2025 as things start to improve.
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
WTF is this continual “stabbed in the back” nonsense ?
Interesting to see that in many European countries older voters tend to prefer moderate/mainstream parties and it's young people voting for the more extreme parties on both left and right. The UK is a bit of an outlier.
Yes, in France it was pensioners that re elected Macron in May.
Young voters voted for Melenchon, as young voters voted for Corbyn here and middle aged voters voted for Le Pen.
However in 2017 French pensioners voted for Fillon, so they are still Conservatives really like their British counterparts just they prefer Macron to a far left or far right leader
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
Given either Sunak or Johnson increase the Tory voteshare by at least 10%+ in that JL Partners poll last night I doubt that is true but it still looks like only Sunak will get over the 100 MP backing threshold
I can believe the immediate post-Truss bounce. I do not believe it would last. With Johnson you enter the inevitable succession of scandles, blatant lies and failures. Outside the Con 'bubble' people have had enough and most feel the central cause of the current failure of government is one Alexander Johnson. Just watch that post-Truss bounce leak away. With Sunak the Cons have an outside chance. At best Johnson gets you to a clear defeat - and that's only if he cleans up his act. Which he will not.
Amongst over 65's who are white, live in what they still call the Ridings, suffer from mild angina, play golf once a week, and who drive Range Rovers (badly), Boris Johnson polled 100%.
Therefore he will win the next General Election by a landslide.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes…
Zahawi is clearly a fool or a liar, then. Possibly both.
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
WTF is this continual “stabbed in the back” nonsense ?
The latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 19%, still sees them with a lead in the 65+ age group.
What has happened to that age group?
you make it sound like they are WRONG - its a bit arrogant - there is no right or wrong way to vote
The thing is, the Tories are a chaotic mess, a mess of unprecedented proportions in British political history. They've lost the confidence of the markets, and they are nearly 40 points behind with the country as a whole - so why does that age group still think the Tories are best-placed to run the country?
This is not a small difference. It demands an explanation.
The explanation is that young people have almost always preferred Labour to the Tories and elderly voters have almost always preferred the Tories to Labour, and that hasn't changed. 1987 was an exception when young people preferred the Conservatives.
Before 2010-15 this difference was present but it was much, much smaller than it is now.
For example, in 1997, the Ipsos-MORI "How Britain Voted" survey had a Labour lead 44-31 overall (i.e. +13) and a Labour lead 41-36 in the 65+ age group (i.e. +5). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories was +8 compared to the electorate as a whole.
The latest YouGov has a Labour lead of 56-19 (+37), but a Labour deficit among 65+ of 36-40 (-4). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories is +41 compared to the electorate as a whole (and the 65+ age group is a larger proportion of the whole now, so all things being equal we'd expect this bias to have reduced).
That's a huge difference. It's way beyond young people have always preferred Labour over the Tories. I don't think the triple lock explains it either. Labour were not reluctant in giving handouts to the 65+ age group when they were in office.
It’s fascinating. Not just a UK thing either. The younger generation is blaming the elderly for the state of the economy and the old think the young are lazy good for nothings and yearn after the good old days. In France the young are more into Le Pen than the oldies, because the old establishment is liberal/left. In Russia the old are far more supportive of Putin. In Ukraine I understand almost all residual pro-Russian sentiment is among the very old.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
You truly are an idiot if you think that was worth typing out.
Labour have gained 20,000 new members since the party conference, I think you have to hand it to Starmer, just by being Starmer, he is regularly polling ahead of the Tories, and now the Labour membership is on the rise again, also the party are now receiving money from high profile donors, that stopped in Corbyns tenure, labour stood on the brink at their last leadership election, a win for Rebecca Long Bailey would surely have been the end for them, whatever happens here on in, the Labour Party owe a debt of gratitude to starmer
People like winners and Starmer / Labour is seen as a winner at the moment. There are probably a few in there who may be thinking about their future political careers at whatever level and realise now is the time to join up (not that I would like to accuse them of being March Violets or anything).
If Johnson wins then I think we’re in a general election within weeks. He may even decide to trigger one himself during his new leader bounce.
Question whether Labour would want that. Probably a comfortable victory, but they then get stuck with the shit to come in 2023. 2 years of non-disastrous governance under Sunak and Tories getting full blame for the coming squeeze on living standards, then an election win in 2025 as things start to improve.
Very likely. At least 40 Tory MPs will refuse to support him, starting with Roger Gale who's already said he would resign the whip.
Labour have gained 20,000 new members since the party conference, I think you have to hand it to Starmer, just by being Starmer, he is regularly polling ahead of the Tories, and now the Labour membership is on the rise again, also the party are now receiving money from high profile donors, that stopped in Corbyns tenure, labour stood on the brink at their last leadership election, a win for Rebecca Long Bailey would surely have been the end for them, whatever happens here on in, the Labour Party owe a debt of gratitude to starmer
He may not be electoral dynamite, but Starmer has consistently improved over time and his achievement in neutralising the far left has been impressive.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Conclusion: Zahawi is an idiot.
He has not exactly made a compelling case to be kept in the next Cabinet, has he?
For a while I thought he was smarter than this.
For a while.
Are you still backing Penny? Does she still have a chance?
Her only remote chance is if Boris does not run but endorses her. Still not sure that would be enough to bring her back in the game.
I'll be happy to see her in a big job where (hopefully) she can shine and be a part of the sales pitch for a new "quietly getting on with job" pragmatic government under Rishi.
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
Did you read the thread header?
Yes and my earlier post showed it was rubbish, hypothetical polls are pretty accurate for named leaders, from Major in 1990 to Blair in 1994 to Cameron in 2005 to Boris winning back voters from Farage in 2019
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Not necessarily. Still a scenario where he gets the 100 but the members back Rishi IMHO.
The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.
The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.
A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
Major issue for the LibDems and other PR supporters if Farage wants to get out in front and be the face of it. Doesn’t make for a happy referendum campaign if you spend half the time disowning one of its supporters.
Also why we likely never have a PR referendum.
People who most want PR and would win more seats with PR
1 The LDs 2 Farage and RefUK 3 The Greens
People who would lose most seats under PR at present
1 Labour 2 The SNP 3 The Conservatives (assuming they get back to 30%+ with Boris or Rishi)
Very true. PR for the Commons is highly unlikely. PR is much more likely to come in for local government and the reformed Upper House
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
WTF is this continual “stabbed in the back” nonsense ?
1918 Germany anyone?
Sure, it’s distasteful. But in this case it’s utter mince. Sunak warned of the consequences of Truss’s policies before she won. Both he and his supporters were almost entirely excluded from her administration, which then experienced the predicted disaster. Whether he owed any loyalty to her is questionable; even if he did, to suggest any kind if ‘betrayal’ plums the depths of absurdity.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
The membership vote isn't a "contest". It's supposed to happen in two days. The 1922 committee has designed the rules in a way that they are hoping it doesn't happen. Because it would be an absolute farce.
The longer version promising "integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of government" amongst other things makes it a good initial pitch
Looks like we're getting Rishi on Monday. Johnson won't get a job - won't want to be bound by collective cabinet responsibility and wants ££££>
'Eastern European Envoy' and a peerage would do it. He still wants the PM job but this would mean he could romantically set aside his title to rescue the Tory party.
See new Tweets Conversation Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi · 6m I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2 Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better. With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2
Boris 2.0 what nonsense . Contrite and honest !
Sounds like someone auditioning for the part of Toad of Toad Hall, not someone who's been sacked from every job he's had for being a lying cheat trying to become prime minister (again!).
As soon as sentence is passed on Johnson he'll say:
"All of you! All the whole lot of you! All fat-faces! I am Toad, the Terror of the Highway, Toad, the traffic-queller, the Lord of the Lone Trail, before whom all must vie way or be smitten into nothingness and everlasting night. I am the Toad, the handsome, the popular, the successful Toad. And what are you? Just fat-faces."
Penny Mordaunt having a car crash on @bbclaurak right now. Refusing to answer straightforward questions on what she stands for and won’t even repeat her call from 2 weeks ago that benefits should rise with inflation.
Looks like we're getting Rishi on Monday. Johnson won't get a job - won't want to be bound by collective cabinet responsibility and wants ££££>
'Eastern European Envoy' and a peerage would do it. He still wants the PM job but this would mean he could romantically set aside his title to rescue the Tory party.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Not necessarily. Still a scenario where he gets the 100 but the members back Rishi IMHO.
A scenario.
But the members are an ornery bunch who have rejected Rishi for Liz Truss (Liz Truss!!!! Remember her?) and will likely reject him again for Boris.
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Not necessarily. Still a scenario where he gets the 100 but the members back Rishi IMHO.
A scenario.
But the members are an ornery bunch who have rejected Rishi for Liz Truss (Liz Truss!!!! Remember her?) and will likely reject him again for Boris.
I am not so sure. He will have overwhelming backing from the MPs and there will be a desire to cause less chaos.
It will be a close run thing IMHO. Rishi’s “toxicity” with the membership is oft overplayed.
Ms Truss was a disaster, but she was not an accident. Something has gone fundamentally wrong with a party when it hands the premiership to someone so manifestly wrong for the job. And that’s twice in a row, remembering that she was preceded by Mr Johnson. And it will be a hat-trick of wilfully diabolical decisions if the Tories are so deranged that they re-crown the clown prince.
.. the foolish Mr Cameron...set the pattern for the Tory premierships of this period when he self-immolated by putting Brexit to a referendum he glibly believed he could not lose. Poor old Mrs May [then] spent three years trying to find an answer to what was a trick question.
Parliamentary paralysis led to the Tories’ desperate pact with the electoral devil when they put Mr Johnson in Number 10. That looked like a cunning ruse when he won his party a chunky majority in 2019. It does not look so clever less than three years later when the polls suggest the Tories will be disembowelled by the voters when they get their hands on them in polling stations. The devil will demand his price.
The toxic twins of Brexit and Borisology turned the Tories into a party prey to delusions. Competence and commonsense, qualities that Conservatives once regarded as the hallmarks of their party, were displaced by cakeism and cultism.
No one acquainted with this baleful history would assume that the Conservative party will now come to its senses. A Conservative party with any sense of self-preservation would not even be flirting with the thought of a Johnson redux, which could be the trigger for the final implosion of the party.
They will not be able to forever avoid a verdict from the voters. And their opponents have already been furnished with the question to put to the country: what was the point of all these wasted years of Conservative misrule – except to make most Britons poorer and turn our country into an object of ridicule and pity abroad?
The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.
The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.
A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.
Why? Under 25s even voted Labour in 1987, 2010 and 2019 too.
The fact over 65s almost always vote Conservative, only time they didn't in recent decades was 1997 and under 25s almost always vote Labour, last time they didn't was 1983, just shows they are the Conservative and Labour base respectively.
It does not mean the country is irreparably divided as it is still 30 to 65 year olds who are the swing voters who decide elections, not the oldest or youngest voters.
The longer version promising "integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of government" amongst other things makes it a good initial pitch
Although I’d have put “deliver for our country” ahead of “unite our party” in his 3 part list.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Not necessarily. Still a scenario where he gets the 100 but the members back Rishi IMHO.
A scenario.
But the members are an ornery bunch who have rejected Rishi for Liz Truss (Liz Truss!!!! Remember her?) and will likely reject him again for Boris.
Rishi’s “toxicity” with the membership is oft overplayed.
Do you have evidence to back that? Not an antagonistic question, I'm genuinely interested to know on what solid factual grounds you can state it?
Meanwhile on Russia's state-funded RT, director of broadcasting Anton Krasovsky suggests drowning or burning Ukrainian children, makes hideous comments about the rapes by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, says Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians who resist Russia should be shot. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
The fear is palpable in the latest posts from Stuart Dickson.
There is definitely concern in the SNP, see the analysis of their conference speechs.
OTOH, any losses to Labour would be more than offset by gains from the Tories in Moray, Aberdeenshire and the borders. And I don't think the SNP are that bothered by actually losing seats - it's whether they get over that magic 50% in votes mark (SNP + Greens). They can then claim they have a rock solid case for Indyref2
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
i always assumed that Rishi really was 'ambushed by cake' whereas Johnson was the central cause and inspiration of the law-breaking culture at No 10. That along with the corruption, the lying and the shielding of sexual offenders don't incline me to be generous to Johnson.
Talking to local Cons I find -
They want Johnson back Many will not vote for a Con Party led by Rishi They don't understand that any Johnson come-back would be mired in allegations from Day One and probably wouldn't last too long. Several thought Truss was treated very unfairly and was stabbed in the back by Rishi.
Purely anecdotal but the Cons had better get on their knees and pray that Johnson doesn't get to 100. If he does the clock may well be ticking on the whole party
WTF is this continual “stabbed in the back” nonsense ?
1918 Germany anyone?
Sure, it’s distasteful. But in this case it’s utter mince. Sunak warned of the consequences of Truss’s policies before she won. Both he and his supporters were almost entirely excluded from her administration, which then experienced the predicted disaster. Whether he owed any loyalty to her is questionable; even if he did, to suggest any kind if ‘betrayal’ plums the depths of absurdity.
These people are just mad.
That the stabbing was justified, due to Sunak and his supporters being 'excluded from the administration' is debatable. Professing confusion that anyone is alleging stabbing at all is amnesia.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
Where do think the Tories would be if they took the risk of making Boris PM again and in a matter of a few weeks he has to resign due to the Committee of Privileges report? 15%? 10%? Less?
Is it worth the risk for a "fractionally better than the Rishi bounce" that can be locked in, risk free?
If Johnson wins then I think we’re in a general election within weeks. He may even decide to trigger one himself during his new leader bounce.
Question whether Labour would want that. Probably a comfortable victory, but they then get stuck with the shit to come in 2023. 2 years of non-disastrous governance under Sunak and Tories getting full blame for the coming squeeze on living standards, then an election win in 2025 as things start to improve.
Agreed that this is the conventional wisdom. However I think the UK is going to have to get used to several completely different circumstances over the coming years, and that "things start to improve" will not come in the scale of cycles we have known up until now. I don´t generally agree with Peter Zeihan´s ideas, which are more eye-catching than accurate, but he does have one critical thing right: the change in demographics will radically alter the global business cycle that we have know and that we are not prepared for what that means.
Globalization in the past thirty years was built on the back of cheap Chinese production and that has now disappeared and the CCP congress is the final nail in the coffin of China as a viable part of the global supply chain. The US can bring production back from Asia, but UK/Europe cannot. A massive increase in investment, especially in automation, is required, just at the point where the price of capital is now going to increase sharply. So for several years, outside of the US, inflation is going to be very high and living standards will fall sharply. The UK is particularly vulnerable with a high current account deficit being used to bolster short term living standards, but not fixing the long term problem, as David McWilliams enjoys telling us in the Irish Times.https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/10/22/david-mcwilliams-it-is-tragic-how-far-the-uk-has-fallen/
The point is that unless there is a radical overhaul of economic policy and indeed of policy formation, the UK is in worse trouble than its EU competitors, who themselves are in serious trouble. So we cannot depend on the business cycle to help restore our financial position.
In short the policies that have managed the long term decline of the UK have now run out of road. The Tories don´t know what to do and Labour don´t really know that there is a problem. Our political system cannot solve the crisis unless some radical changes are made. Although the Tories are responsible for the immediate disaster in the financial markets, and should indeed pay the price, Labour cannot bank on any improvement within the normal electoral cycle.
A leader who can convey critical home truths to the British people is much needed. Its not Sunak, definitely not Johnson and unfortunately I see no vital signs from SKS.
So the crisis could last decades, until we recognize that good days have gone forever and we need to change dramatically to offer the next generation any hope at all.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Not necessarily. Still a scenario where he gets the 100 but the members back Rishi IMHO.
A scenario.
But the members are an ornery bunch who have rejected Rishi for Liz Truss (Liz Truss!!!! Remember her?) and will likely reject him again for Boris.
Rishi’s “toxicity” with the membership is oft overplayed.
Do you have evidence to back that? Not an antagonistic question, I'm genuinely interested to know on what solid factual grounds you can state it?
What is becoming patently obvious is that Boris Johnson has NOT carried all of the Right. A significant number of big guns (real ones HYUFD) are opposed to Boris returning.
Maybe but as the JL Partners poll shows it doesn't matter whether Boris or Rishi succeed Truss, both get a 10%+ poll bounce from Labour.
On balance personally I fractionally now favour Rishi as he has more Tory MPs support than Boris and we need a fresh face I think but I would be happy with either as PM
HYUFD, I know you treat hypothetical polls like the gospel, and you may even be right that they (at the very least) reflect the default position if they came to pass. But your error has always been in thinking that things can't change.
The decision is only a close one if the polls were suggesting that Johnson would have a much higher starting point. EVERY OTHER consideration of who should become leader is against him. Imposed by the membership against the will of the MPs. His track record of leaving scandal and division in his wake (and the KNOWN scandals built in to disrupt any govt over the next few months). The chaos he creates. The high likelihood he won't even be able to form a viable Cabinet/Government.
You're in la la land.
That's even before you start demonstrating that you have any consideration for the good of the country (as opposed to the Conservative Party) in your thoughts.
The irony is that i think the last leadership election was the exception to this where you took strongly against Truss for some reason, even though she didn't do noticeably worse in the polls.
My gut now is Boris will increase the Conservative party voteshare slightly more than Rishi as he can win redwall voters and stop leakage to Farage Rishi can't.
However I also think the Labour vote would be higher under Boris than Rishi (as would the LD vote in LD target seats) as there would be more tactical voting to keep Boris out than the less marmite Rishi would get.
You are right, my gut that Liz would be a crap leader was more accurate than the polls, though even the hypothetical polls in the summer pre mini budget were not that great for Liz
I think you are correct about Tory and Labour votes being higher if Johnson leads you into the next GE.
He is marmite - idolised by a third of voters and loathed by two-thirds. Sunak and Starmer don't elicit such strong emotions either way.
What Johnson rappers fail to understand or acknowledge is the other side of the equation.
Meanwhile on Russia's state-funded RT, director of broadcasting Anton Krasovsky suggests drowning or burning Ukrainian children, makes hideous comments about the rapes by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, says Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians who resist Russia should be shot. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
I think as we get closer to the deadline more and more Boris supporters will start begging for votes from colleagues and we'll get editorials insisting that members be allowed to have their say and what an outrage it would be if MPs acted in a manner contrary to that by not giving Boris enough votes.
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
Rishi needs a coronation. His entire behaviour shows that he does not want to get into a contest. Hence why his supporters are calling for BJ's camp to publish the list of his claimed supporters - he needs to know where he stands and how credible is BJ's chance. If Sunak's camp was as confident as many on here that BJ hasn't the numbers, he would have declared already and let the momentum push him to a coronation as fence sitters swing to his side. His behaviour - and of his supporters - is the clearest indication he thinks BJ could do this.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
Awkward timing!
Timing is everything
However, even his announcement suggests someone who knows he couldn't wait much longer. As I said, Rishi's behaviour so far hasn't suggested that he thinks BJ has little chance of reaching the threshold.
It looks as though Boris Johnson intends to go for this. The only hope left for this once great party, and in the short term for the country as well, is that he fails to make it to 100.
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Boris takes the Conservatives back to 36% from their current 25% on that JL Partners poll.
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
Where do think the Tories would be if they took the risk of making Boris PM again and in a matter of a few weeks he has to resign due to the Committee of Privileges report? 15%? 10%? Less?
Is it worth the risk for a "fractionally better than the Rishi bounce" that can be locked in, risk free?
It is utterly unforgivable and I hope his backers are thrown out at the next GE
Comments
You have to go back to 1983 for the last time under 25s voted Conservative
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974
I'd like to think it was the latter, but I fear it is the former.
The decision is only a close one if the polls were suggesting that Johnson would have a much higher starting point. EVERY OTHER consideration of who should become leader is against him. Imposed by the membership against the will of the MPs. His track record of leaving scandal and division in his wake (and the KNOWN scandals built in to disrupt any govt over the next few months). The chaos he creates. The high likelihood he won't even be able to form a viable Cabinet/Government.
You're in la la land.
That's even before you start demonstrating that you have any consideration for the good of the country (as opposed to the Conservative Party) in your thoughts.
The irony is that i think the last leadership election was the exception to this where you took strongly against Truss for some reason, even though she didn't do noticeably worse in the polls.
Boris actually won over 39 year olds in 2019. Cameron won over 25s in 2010
If he does cross the threshold then I'm afraid that all hell is about to break loose.
Re the specifics on pro or anti I am strongly opposed to lists even if PR. How do you feel about STV?
Con lead over Lab per age group, vice Mori, since 1987 (earliest election with consistently comparable age groups):
In topic today's hypothetical poll is very good for Boris.
No wonder Rishi fans want to write them off as bobbins
So a more than 10% bounce and even fractionally better than the Rishi bounce which gets the Tories to 35%
The Times tracker has Boris on 55, he's been stuck around that number since Friday evening. If the needle doesn't move today I fully expect JRM and Nadine to have pieces tomorrow morning calling the 100 threshold a fix for Rishi and lashing out at MPs for not giving Boris enough support.
There is no great enthusiasm for Bolsonaro, and he would surely have lost to a clean skin from the centre left.
The last thing the SNP wants is a Labour government at Westminster
https://twitter.com/Paul1Singh/status/1584110392673898496
For example, in 1997, the Ipsos-MORI "How Britain Voted" survey had a Labour lead 44-31 overall (i.e. +13) and a Labour lead 41-36 in the 65+ age group (i.e. +5). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories was +8 compared to the electorate as a whole.
The latest YouGov has a Labour lead of 56-19 (+37), but a Labour deficit among 65+ of 36-40 (-4). So the bias for the oldies to support the Tories is +41 compared to the electorate as a whole (and the 65+ age group is a larger proportion of the whole now, so all things being equal we'd expect this bias to have reduced).
That's a huge difference. It's way beyond young people have always preferred Labour over the Tories. I don't think the triple lock explains it either. Labour were not reluctant in giving handouts to the 65+ age group when they were in office.
Today is one of the latter cases.
You won't listen because you never do.
However I also think the Labour vote would be higher under Boris than Rishi (as would the LD vote in LD target seats) as there would be more tactical voting to keep Boris out than the less marmite Rishi would get.
You are right, my gut that Liz would be a crap leader was more accurate than the polls, though even the hypothetical polls in the summer pre mini budget were not that great for Liz
I wonder what their opinion of Labour putting Corbyn into the members vote is...
Question whether Labour would want that. Probably a comfortable victory, but they then get stuck with the shit to come in 2023. 2 years of non-disastrous governance under Sunak and Tories getting full blame for the coming squeeze on living standards, then an election win in 2025 as things start to improve.
Young voters voted for Melenchon, as young voters voted for Corbyn here and middle aged voters voted for Le Pen.
However in 2017 French pensioners voted for Fillon, so they are still Conservatives really like their British counterparts just they prefer Macron to a far left or far right leader
Amongst over 65's who are white, live in what they still call the Ridings, suffer from mild angina, play golf once a week, and who drive Range Rovers (badly), Boris Johnson polled 100%.
Therefore he will win the next General Election by a landslide.
Presented without comment
I'll be happy to see her in a big job where (hopefully) she can shine and be a part of the sales pitch for a new "quietly getting on with job" pragmatic government under Rishi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0tMvxV-GC4
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/boris-johnson-busy-post-resignation-schedule-of-luxury-holidays?CMP=share_btn_tw
The United Kingdom is a great country but we face a profound economic crisis.
That’s why I am standing to be Leader of the Conservative Party and your next Prime Minister.
I want to fix our economy, unite our Party and deliver for our country.
https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1584114970723512321
The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.
A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.
I mentioned on here yesterday that there is a downside for MPs coming out to support Johnson whereas for Sunak and Mordaunt there isn't. It is entirely possible he has a latent support amongst MPs that isn't being picked up by the the official announcements. Many of the more high-profile Red Wallers have not stated who they are backing but, given generally the ones that have (ex-a certain Aaron Bell) have gone with Johnson, it's entirely possible his support amongst the undeclared MPs is a higher percentage than the ones who have declared so far.
But in this case it’s utter mince. Sunak warned of the consequences of Truss’s policies before she won. Both he and his supporters were almost entirely excluded from her administration, which then experienced the predicted disaster.
Whether he owed any loyalty to her is questionable; even if he did, to suggest any kind if ‘betrayal’ plums the depths of absurdity.
These people are just mad.
As soon as sentence is passed on Johnson he'll say:
"All of you! All the whole lot of you! All fat-faces! I am Toad, the Terror of the Highway, Toad, the traffic-queller, the Lord of the Lone Trail, before whom all must vie way or be smitten into nothingness and everlasting night. I am the Toad, the handsome, the popular, the successful Toad. And what are you? Just fat-faces."
Penny Mordaunt having a car crash on @bbclaurak right now. Refusing to answer straightforward questions on what she stands for and won’t even repeat her call from 2 weeks ago that benefits should rise with inflation.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1584096765548298241
But the members are an ornery bunch who have rejected Rishi for Liz Truss (Liz Truss!!!! Remember her?) and will likely reject him again for Boris.
It will be a close run thing IMHO. Rishi’s “toxicity” with the membership is oft overplayed.
Ms Truss was a disaster, but she was not an accident. Something has gone fundamentally wrong with a party when it hands the premiership to someone so manifestly wrong for the job. And that’s twice in a row, remembering that she was preceded by Mr Johnson. And it will be a hat-trick of wilfully diabolical decisions if the Tories are so deranged that they re-crown the clown prince.
.. the foolish Mr Cameron...set the pattern for the Tory premierships of this period when he self-immolated by putting Brexit to a referendum he glibly believed he could not lose. Poor old Mrs May [then] spent three years trying to find an answer to what was a trick question.
Parliamentary paralysis led to the Tories’ desperate pact with the electoral devil when they put Mr Johnson in Number 10. That looked like a cunning ruse when he won his party a chunky majority in 2019. It does not look so clever less than three years later when the polls suggest the Tories will be disembowelled by the voters when they get their hands on them in polling stations. The devil will demand his price.
The toxic twins of Brexit and Borisology turned the Tories into a party prey to delusions. Competence and commonsense, qualities that Conservatives once regarded as the hallmarks of their party, were displaced by cakeism and cultism.
No one acquainted with this baleful history would assume that the Conservative party will now come to its senses. A Conservative party with any sense of self-preservation would not even be flirting with the thought of a Johnson redux, which could be the trigger for the final implosion of the party.
They will not be able to forever avoid a verdict from the voters. And their opponents have already been furnished with the question to put to the country: what was the point of all these wasted years of Conservative misrule – except to make most Britons poorer and turn our country into an object of ridicule and pity abroad?
The fact over 65s almost always vote Conservative, only time they didn't in recent decades was 1997 and under 25s almost always vote Labour, last time they didn't was 1983, just shows they are the Conservative and Labour base respectively.
It does not mean the country is irreparably divided as it is still 30 to 65 year olds who are the swing voters who decide elections, not the oldest or youngest voters.
Steve Baker
Jesse Norman
Geoffrey Cox
Theresa Villiers
Since yesterday - two Truss and two Sunak - to Sunak's tally helps him.
My current forecast is:
Sunak 160 (+5)
Boris 104 (-6)
Mordaunt 30 (n/c)
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
OTOH, any losses to Labour would be more than offset by gains from the Tories in Moray, Aberdeenshire and the borders. And I don't think the SNP are that bothered by actually losing seats - it's whether they get over that magic 50% in votes mark (SNP + Greens). They can then claim they have a rock solid case for Indyref2
Is it worth the risk for a "fractionally better than the Rishi bounce" that can be locked in, risk free?
Globalization in the past thirty years was built on the back of cheap Chinese production and that has now disappeared and the CCP congress is the final nail in the coffin of China as a viable part of the global supply chain. The US can bring production back from Asia, but UK/Europe cannot. A massive increase in investment, especially in automation, is required, just at the point where the price of capital is now going to increase sharply. So for several years, outside of the US, inflation is going to be very high and living standards will fall sharply. The UK is particularly vulnerable with a high current account deficit being used to bolster short term living standards, but not fixing the long term problem, as David McWilliams enjoys telling us in the Irish Times.https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/10/22/david-mcwilliams-it-is-tragic-how-far-the-uk-has-fallen/
The point is that unless there is a radical overhaul of economic policy and indeed of policy formation, the UK is in worse trouble than its EU competitors, who themselves are in serious trouble. So we cannot depend on the business cycle to help restore our financial position.
In short the policies that have managed the long term decline of the UK have now run out of road. The Tories don´t know what to do and Labour don´t really know that there is a problem. Our political system cannot solve the crisis unless some radical changes are made. Although the Tories are responsible for the immediate disaster in the financial markets, and should indeed pay the price, Labour cannot bank on any improvement within the normal electoral cycle.
A leader who can convey critical home truths to the British people is much needed. Its not Sunak, definitely not Johnson and unfortunately I see no vital signs from SKS.
So the crisis could last decades, until we recognize that good days have gone forever and we need to change dramatically to offer the next generation any hope at all.
He is marmite - idolised by a third of voters and loathed by two-thirds. Sunak and Starmer don't elicit such strong emotions either way.
What Johnson rappers fail to understand or acknowledge is the other side of the equation.
However, even his announcement suggests someone who knows he couldn't wait much longer. As I said, Rishi's behaviour so far hasn't suggested that he thinks BJ has little chance of reaching the threshold.