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Why hypothetical polling is bobbins – politicalbetting.com

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  • I thought Shapps was reported yesterday as a Johnson supporter?

    We need someone who can provide stability and proven economic competence in these challenging times, and @RishiSunak is that person. That's why I'm backing him in the Conservative leadership contest

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1584127509997981696

    I thought that too.
    Grant Shapps was part of Team Big Dog in 2019, as official Keeper of the Spreadsheets during Boris's successful leadership campaign. It is possible someone, somewhere on the interwebs, extrapolated from that fact to presume wrongly Shapps's current allegiance.
  • Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Lunchtime endorsements update

    Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today)
    Boris Johnson: 61 (+3)
    Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1)

    231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate.

    Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPHIxWEtUUU23wUrqKemUBfGKxZMWZwHKeyUAATiyd4ohSmtnr0eZ4fdqF_ivzk3kfe7aFsEvuBXVW/pubhtml


    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584147229345869824

    Mordaunt is rather wasting everyone's time here. Surely there is no way she is going to make 100 now.
    But if she pulls out some if her supporters may go to Johnson, and perhaps she doesn't want that to happen.
    Plus, she has a chance if Boris pulls out?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,257

    Hearing James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is likely to endorse Boris Johnson - announcement expected this afternoon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584159535446441984

    Pity, reports were he got off to a good start..

    He will be removed from the FO and in all probability the Cabinet if anyone other than Johnson wins. And he knows it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,257

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Lunchtime endorsements update

    Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today)
    Boris Johnson: 61 (+3)
    Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1)

    231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate.

    Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPHIxWEtUUU23wUrqKemUBfGKxZMWZwHKeyUAATiyd4ohSmtnr0eZ4fdqF_ivzk3kfe7aFsEvuBXVW/pubhtml


    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584147229345869824

    Mordaunt is rather wasting everyone's time here. Surely there is no way she is going to make 100 now.
    But if she pulls out some if her supporters may go to Johnson, and perhaps she doesn't want that to happen.
    Plus, she has a chance if Boris pulls out?
    No woman has ever got lucky expecting Johnson to pull out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    Hearing James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is likely to endorse Boris Johnson - announcement expected this afternoon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584159535446441984

    Pity, reports were he got off to a good start..

    Cleverly by name...
    Only.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,975
    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,252
    So several of the people I listed here early this morning who could have backed Johnson have instead come out for Sunak.

    Interesting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    I thought Shapps was reported yesterday as a Johnson supporter?

    We need someone who can provide stability and proven economic competence in these challenging times, and @RishiSunak is that person. That's why I'm backing him in the Conservative leadership contest

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1584127509997981696

    I thought that too.
    Grant Shapps was part of Team Big Dog in 2019, as official Keeper of the Spreadsheets during Boris's successful leadership campaign. It is possible someone, somewhere on the interwebs, extrapolated from that fact to presume wrongly Shapps's current allegiance.
    Wasn't he spreadsheet guy on Liz too?
    Is he the only Tory who can use Excel? (I wouldn't be overly shocked).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,257
    edited October 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
    you also wonder a bit if all their best mechanics and pilots are in Ukraine and Crimea rather than places like Irkutsk.

    Plus how good are the planes that are not at the front are.

    Also, how many spares they have for anything that goes wrong.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    This was Nadhim Zahawi’s letter of resignation July 7th. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Stratford MP - has today backed his old boss for the leadership. Again. @bbcmtd will have reaction from the former Chancellor’s constituency at 4:35pm BBC1 #PoliticsMidlands https://twitter.com/ElizabethGlinka/status/1584160524475867136/photo/1
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    I thought Shapps was reported yesterday as a Johnson supporter?

    We need someone who can provide stability and proven economic competence in these challenging times, and @RishiSunak is that person. That's why I'm backing him in the Conservative leadership contest

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1584127509997981696

    I thought that too.
    Grant Shapps was part of Team Big Dog in 2019, as official Keeper of the Spreadsheets during Boris's successful leadership campaign. It is possible someone, somewhere on the interwebs, extrapolated from that fact to presume wrongly Shapps's current allegiance.
    I think there was a joke doing the rounds that 3 of Boris's unnamed backers were him because of his previous alter egos. I presumed that meant he had backed him but now I guess the joke was just the second bit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
    However.
    Russia's a bloody big place. With relatively few people. Seems strange they keep malfunctioning in populated areas. A spooky coincidence.
  • Nightmare options being looked at to fill £40bn black hole in public finances:

    1. Freeze defence spending for 5 years, jacking up to 3% towards end of decade

    2. Extend freeze on income tax thresholds - a stealth tax - to 2027-28

    3. Drop pensions triple lock from 2025


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584103710040690691

    Or they could do what Liz Truss said, but did not have a convincing plan for, which is grow the economy. We do not need to fill the gap this week or this year; we do need to look as if we do have that aspiration. In any case, unless my calendar is badly wrong, those are decisions for future governments.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,257
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
    However.
    Russia's a bloody big place. With relatively few people. Seems strange they keep malfunctioning in populated areas. A spooky coincidence.
    perhaps that's where the air fields are?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    At roughly 24 hours to go, the @FT Tory leadership tracker of declared nominations has:
    Sunak 131
    Johnson 51
    Mordaunt 24
    https://www.ft.com/content/0cf99f77-c41c-4fab-a15f-4fef98323704
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    Mr Hunt could seek to reform generous capital gains rules and bring them more into line with general taxation, bringing in around £3.5 billion a year.

    The Chancellor could also revisit the plan to increase stamp duty thresholds, the only other measure to survive from the mini-Budget - finding £2 billion.

    One move, as called for by Labour, would be to abolish non-dom status. That would bring in an extra £3 billion a year to the Exchequer.

    There are also a raft of wealth taxes Mr Hunt may look at, such as a council tax surcharge on properties worth over £2 million that would raise £1.4 billion.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/22/jeremy-hunts-halloween-budget-could-hit-high-earners-20bn-tax/

    We might as well have a Labour government, as we getting Labour policies.

    Presumably keeping the corporation tax rise will bring in an extra £16bn? Extra council tax bands at the top end seems obvious. Windfall tax on energy companies?* Letting the tax thresholds rise below inflation will help too. £25bn. £30bn?

    *Obviously this will be a one year only amount but would help with the overall debt burden and interest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,541

    One move, as called for by Labour, would be to abolish non-dom status. That would bring in an extra £3 billion a year to the Exchequer.

    Does that rather assume that non-Doms say “fair enough, I’ll stay and pay” rather than “Foxtrot Oscar, I’m off”?

    It isn't as if they pay anything of consequence, so good riddance. They can dodge taxes somewhere else.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    3 more for Sunak, taking him to 150, 1 for Mordaunt, 0 for Johnson.

    His outriders keep claiming he's running and definitely has the numbers, sound increasingly shrill, rather than confident.

    Desperate reaching out to Mordaunt now, but much better for her to do a deal w Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1584147482417631232
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,975
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
    However.
    Russia's a bloody big place. With relatively few people. Seems strange they keep malfunctioning in populated areas. A spooky coincidence.
    perhaps that's where the air fields are?
    It’s not hard to conceive that crashes in more remote areas are not being reported.

    It’s worth considering that aircraft safety is a hard win prize. In the 1950s the U.K. lost *hundreds* of Gloucester Meteor fighters in crashes. It took Winston Churchill asking why RAF pilots were dying at a rate that sounded like a war, for something to be done.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    I’m past understanding Johnson backing MPs. They look addicted to poor governance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    ydoethur said:

    Hearing James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is likely to endorse Boris Johnson - announcement expected this afternoon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584159535446441984

    Pity, reports were he got off to a good start..

    He will be removed from the FO and in all probability the Cabinet if anyone other than Johnson wins. And he knows it.
    But it marks him as a self-interested tw*t, nevertheless
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    I’m past understanding Johnson backing MPs. They look addicted to poor governance.

    But it's their own, personal, poor governance. Even idiots think they are good at stuff.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    Mr Hunt could seek to reform generous capital gains rules and bring them more into line with general taxation, bringing in around £3.5 billion a year.

    The Chancellor could also revisit the plan to increase stamp duty thresholds, the only other measure to survive from the mini-Budget - finding £2 billion.

    One move, as called for by Labour, would be to abolish non-dom status. That would bring in an extra £3 billion a year to the Exchequer.

    There are also a raft of wealth taxes Mr Hunt may look at, such as a council tax surcharge on properties worth over £2 million that would raise £1.4 billion.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/22/jeremy-hunts-halloween-budget-could-hit-high-earners-20bn-tax/

    We might as well have a Labour government, as we getting Labour policies.

    Presumably keeping the corporation tax rise will bring in an extra £16bn? Extra council tax bands at the top end seems obvious. Windfall tax on energy companies?* Letting the tax thresholds rise below inflation will help too. £25bn. £30bn?

    *Obviously this will be a one year only amount but would help with the overall debt burden and interest.
    Jezza type budget

    Jeremy Hunt is indeed Jeremy C after all.

    Ohhhh Jeeerrrremy Cuuuuuunnnnt
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584164475568914432

    and that should be that

    Wow , I hate the woman but that really should be game over for the oaf .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Lol even the maddest right winger has gone for Rishi. That's got to be the end of Boris.

    What JRM has swapped to backing Dishy Rishi? ;-)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/rishi-sunak-candidate-fits-bill-prime-minister/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    Mr Hunt could seek to reform generous capital gains rules and bring them more into line with general taxation, bringing in around £3.5 billion a year.

    The Chancellor could also revisit the plan to increase stamp duty thresholds, the only other measure to survive from the mini-Budget - finding £2 billion.

    One move, as called for by Labour, would be to abolish non-dom status. That would bring in an extra £3 billion a year to the Exchequer.

    There are also a raft of wealth taxes Mr Hunt may look at, such as a council tax surcharge on properties worth over £2 million that would raise £1.4 billion.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/22/jeremy-hunts-halloween-budget-could-hit-high-earners-20bn-tax/

    We might as well have a Labour government, as we getting Labour policies.

    Presumably keeping the corporation tax rise will bring in an extra £16bn? Extra council tax bands at the top end seems obvious. Windfall tax on energy companies?* Letting the tax thresholds rise below inflation will help too. £25bn. £30bn?

    *Obviously this will be a one year only amount but would help with the overall debt burden and interest.
    Jezza type budget

    Jeremy Hunt is indeed Jeremy C after all.

    Ohhhh Jeeerrrremy Cuuuuuunnnnt
    Problem for Labour is the Tories are outflanking SKS on the left.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 2022
    Going to be fascinating what BS Team Boris comes out with why he isn't actually running.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Michelle Donelan backs Rishi. Another cabinet minister

    Wow Johnson originally put her in the cabinet .
    For one day. When he was starved for choice as everybody and their dog was quitting.
    She had 'attended Cabinet' for some time, so a bit of a rising figure though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584164475568914432

    and that should be that

    Wow.

    BoJo done.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    Going to be fascinating what BS Team Boris comes out with why he isn't actually running.

    Indeed. Mad Nad is going to be madder
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/rishi-sunak-candidate-fits-bill-prime-minister/

    I suspect she has been seduced by the backing she got in this year's contest to think that at some point in the future she might actually stand a chance, and wants to stick with the mainstream so as not to sour her record.

    Delusional, of course - but then a lot of them might be thinking, if even Truss can make it to the top, why can't I?

    And some of them will already be thinking about the LOTO election coming before too long; what state the party might be in by then and whether they might be in with a chance,
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_xP said:

    3 more for Sunak, taking him to 150, 1 for Mordaunt, 0 for Johnson.

    His outriders keep claiming he's running and definitely has the numbers, sound increasingly shrill, rather than confident.

    Desperate reaching out to Mordaunt now, but much better for her to do a deal w Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1584147482417631232

    Rishi has shortened from around 1.39 to 1.25 in the last hour or so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Lunchtime endorsements update

    Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today)
    Boris Johnson: 61 (+3)
    Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1)

    231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate.

    Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPHIxWEtUUU23wUrqKemUBfGKxZMWZwHKeyUAATiyd4ohSmtnr0eZ4fdqF_ivzk3kfe7aFsEvuBXVW/pubhtml


    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584147229345869824

    Mordaunt is rather wasting everyone's time here. Surely there is no way she is going to make 100 now.
    But if she pulls out some if her supporters may go to Johnson, and perhaps she doesn't want that to happen.
    Hopefully. Once Boris was a prospect she lost her shit.

    Edit: shot that is
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,043
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    At roughly 24 hours to go, the @FT Tory leadership tracker of declared nominations has:
    Sunak 131
    Johnson 51
    Mordaunt 24
    https://www.ft.com/content/0cf99f77-c41c-4fab-a15f-4fef98323704

    Could be an overthink but let's float one:

    Mordaunt will pull out after Johnson does. She's in there as a contingency against him scraping the 100 and announcing he's in.

    Should this occur the "anti Johnsons" will reshuffle and get her on the ballot too. Then they'll calibrate to eliminate Johnson on the MP vote.

    Then she'll pull out (as agreed).

    Point being, the end outcome - Sunak and no Members - is baked in. Plan A is with Johnson not standing. Plan B contingency for if he does.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.

    The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.

    A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.

    So the weirdly capitalised 'Scottish Nationalists' are right then?
    I make no judgement in that comment whether the ScotNats are right (the capitalisation seems fairly standard to me), but I'm playing with the idea of it being a framework with which to think about the political divisions in Britain today.

    Arguably the age division is the source of the divide in Scotland too, just that it has expressed itself slightly differently to England. The latest YouGov had the SNP lead Labour 45-31 overall, but behind 34-36 among over-65s.

    Resolving the age divide across Britain might resolve the question of Scottish independence, one way or another, much more clearly than the current stalemate.
    Nationalist is not a proper noun therefore you are wrong to capitalise it.
    It is part of their party

    name, so it is as correct to capitalise it as it is to capitalise Labour or Conservative, or Labourite,


    etc.
    Nope, it’s the Scottish National Party and you were talking about people who supported independence for Scotland, not the party - at least that was the clear implication from your post

    You wouldn't say "Scottish Nationals" though would you? You say "Scottish Nationalists".

    I don't see why this is such a bone of contention.
    Because it has F all to do with the political party and you made a right tit of yourself by not even knowing the party name , getting it totally wrong and then conflating it with Independence supporters.
    I know perfectly well what the name of the SNP is.
    To be fair, I didn't. I thought it was 'Scottish Nationalist' because that's what everyone calls them, even though it's apparently not their official name.

    I think it's irrelevant though. People call Plaid Cymru 'Nationalists' and that isn't even remotely part of their name (or for the matter of that their policy offering)!
    Stop digging Australia beckons
    You'll roo the day you said that.

    Edit - incidentally, on a point of punctuation, there should be a comma between 'digging' and 'Australia.'
    Possumly
    This punning contest has been croced already.
    Dugong beat me to it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,582
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/rishi-sunak-candidate-fits-bill-prime-minister/

    Wow.

    What has she been offered?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,367

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584164475568914432

    and that should be that

    Wow.

    BoJo done.
    I'm not so sure.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,475
    MaxPB said:

    Lol even the maddest right winger has gone for Rishi. That's got to be the end of Boris.

    Shades of Ken Clarke and John Redwood.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Foxy said:

    One move, as called for by Labour, would be to abolish non-dom status. That would bring in an extra £3 billion a year to the Exchequer.

    Does that rather assume that non-Doms say “fair enough, I’ll stay and pay” rather than “Foxtrot Oscar, I’m off”?

    It isn't as if they pay anything of consequence, so good riddance. They can dodge taxes somewhere else.
    They probably spend a lot via indirect taxation (property, services) which will be lost and the £3bn won’t be realised. But apart from that, great plan.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947

    Going to be fascinating what BS Team Boris comes out with why he isn't actually running.

    I almost want him to do it now

    Let the members pick him, and destroy his party
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/rishi-sunak-candidate-fits-bill-prime-minister/

    I suspect she has been seduced by the backing she got in this year's contest to think that at some point in the future she might actually stand a chance, and wants to stick with the mainstream so as not to sour her record.

    Delusional, of course - but then a lot of them might be thinking, if even Truss can make it to the top, why can't I?
    Wow that has to be a nail in the BBB coffin. Would never have expected to see her endorse Rishi
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    Driver said:

    malcolmg said:

    There's loads of random capitalisation on the thread this morning. Why so touchy about mine?

    The SNP could have called themselves simply the Scotland Pary, or the Scotland Independence Party, or a myriad of other possible names if they didn't want the word "National" to be in their party name and didn't want to be associated with the concept of Nationalism.

    a hundred years ago they wanted to be the Scottish party for the nation, hence "National".
    The fact that unionists try to always misname them and imply they are some nasty "Nationalist" organisation with its connotations is a recent thing since the resurgence of the right wing Imperialism in England.
    If they didn't want to be portrayed as a nasty nationalist organisation they could try not being a nasty nationalist organisation.
    Very witty , well half at least, back under your rock now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,331

    🚨TELEGRAPH EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman endorses Rishi Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584164475568914432

    and that should be that

    Oh no. That could make sensible Sunak backers have second thoughts....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    Heathener said:

    If the rumour is true that Penny Mordaunt is doing a deal with Boris then we really are entering a horrendous situation.

    All sensible people need to pray that Boris doesn't make it to 100.

    Not a rumour I have heard....
    Would be brilliant
  • Scott_xP said:

    3 more for Sunak, taking him to 150, 1 for Mordaunt, 0 for Johnson.

    His outriders keep claiming he's running and definitely has the numbers, sound increasingly shrill, rather than confident.

    Desperate reaching out to Mordaunt now, but much better for her to do a deal w Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1584147482417631232

    I'm doubtful Mordaunt could pass her support to Johnson even if she wanted to. Both Sunak and Mordaunt are "moving on" candidates, and indeed Johnson removed her from the cabinet (albeit she was relatively interim at the fag end of May).

    All her supporters could've gone for Johnson in the last few days if they had an interest in going backwards and, whilst Mordaunt might persuade a handful over, it's unlikely to be the numbers Johnson requires. Plus a hell of a gamble to take against an odds on favourite.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,043
    Suella's certainly shifted the market. 6 handle now.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    Going to be fascinating what BS Team Boris comes out with why he isn't actually running.

    Boris has been in the Caribbean as he felt that was the best way to ensure his successor had a free run and wouldn't have to be concerned about big dog watching over her in parliament. When it became clear Truss would resign he cut short his holiday, rushing back to the UK to endorse Rishi Sunak in person. He felt this was the best way ensure that the party would unite around a new leader and that his supporters wouldn't then cause trouble for Sunak who is now in a position to lead a united party and therefore give Britain the leadership it needs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022

    DavidL said:

    Lunchtime endorsements update

    Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today)
    Boris Johnson: 61 (+3)
    Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1)

    231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate.

    Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPHIxWEtUUU23wUrqKemUBfGKxZMWZwHKeyUAATiyd4ohSmtnr0eZ4fdqF_ivzk3kfe7aFsEvuBXVW/pubhtml


    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584147229345869824

    Mordaunt is rather wasting everyone's time here. Surely there is no way she is going to make 100 now.
    If she stops Johnson getting to 100 she’ll have served her country well.
    He's creepiny closer though, and still 24 hours to go with at least a few with enough shame not to pre announce.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,080
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Lunchtime endorsements update

    Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today)
    Boris Johnson: 61 (+3)
    Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1)

    231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate.

    Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPHIxWEtUUU23wUrqKemUBfGKxZMWZwHKeyUAATiyd4ohSmtnr0eZ4fdqF_ivzk3kfe7aFsEvuBXVW/pubhtml


    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584147229345869824

    Mordaunt is rather wasting everyone's time here. Surely there is no way she is going to make 100 now.
    But if she pulls out some if her supporters may go to Johnson, and perhaps she doesn't want that to happen.
    Fysh looks like a -1 to Boris as a dorect result of Mordaunt running to me
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    Foreign Secretary James Cleverly backs Boris Johnson

    All heating up this afternoon - keep up with everything here

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,947
    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.

    The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.

    A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.

    So the weirdly capitalised 'Scottish Nationalists' are right then?
    I make no judgement in that comment whether the ScotNats are right (the capitalisation seems fairly standard to me), but I'm playing with the idea of it being a framework with which to think about the political divisions in Britain today.

    Arguably the age division is the source of the divide in Scotland too, just that it has expressed itself slightly differently to England. The latest YouGov had the SNP lead Labour 45-31 overall, but behind 34-36 among over-65s.

    Resolving the age divide across Britain might resolve the question of Scottish independence, one way or another, much more clearly than the


    current stalemate.
    Nationalist is not a proper noun therefore you are wrong to capitalise it.

    'The Scottish Nationalist Party' for which it is short *is* a proper noun though.
    Shocking ignorance on a politics site
    Well, we all know your view that they're not nationalists...
    Trying to hide schoolboy errors , not surprising the knowledge on Scotland is still totally lacking on here despite all the Scotch experts.
    I've always thought of you and one or two other Scottish posters (Stuart Dickson) as more whine experts.
    your spelling is shocking as well as your political nous, you added a stray "h" in wine there.
    More of a wisky fan, I'd wager?
    I do like a nice glass of wine , as well as a nice malt even cognac but in moderation mostly nowadays. Have wine with dinner and only occasional spirits so more wine drinker.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    MaxPB said:

    Lol even the maddest right winger has gone for Rishi. That's got to be the end of Boris.

    Shades of Ken Clarke and John Redwood.
    Yeah but here's the peculiar thing. Sunak isn't really Clarke and Johnson isn't Redwood.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.

    The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.

    A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.

    So the weirdly capitalised 'Scottish Nationalists' are right then?
    I make no judgement in that comment whether the ScotNats are right (the capitalisation seems fairly standard to me), but I'm playing with the idea of it being a framework with which to think about the political divisions in Britain today.

    Arguably the age division is the source of the divide in Scotland too, just that it has expressed itself slightly differently to England. The latest YouGov had the SNP lead Labour 45-31 overall, but behind 34-36 among over-65s.

    Resolving the age divide across Britain might resolve the question of Scottish independence, one way or another, much more clearly than the


    current stalemate.
    Nationalist is not a proper noun therefore you are wrong to capitalise it.

    'The Scottish Nationalist Party' for which it is short *is* a proper noun though.
    Shocking ignorance on a politics site
    Well, we all know your view that they're not nationalists...
    Trying to hide schoolboy errors , not surprising the knowledge on Scotland is still totally lacking on here despite all the Scotch experts.
    I've always thought of you and one or two other Scottish posters (Stuart Dickson) as more whine experts.
    your spelling is shocking as well as your political nous, you added a stray "h" in wine there.
    More of a wisky fan, I'd wager?
    Nice one there
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    THIS THREAD HAS FAILED TO GET 100 NOMINATIONS.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "A Russian military plane crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, the region's governor said, the second such crash in less than a week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/ukraine-news-russia-war-kherson-latest-dnipro-kyiv/

    Russian aircraft maintenance (civil and military) was a special feature of the USSR. The civil stuff improved after 89, due to requirement from foreign manufacturers of aircraft and needing permission to enter operate abroad.

    I rather think that sanctions will have caused things to go backwards.
    However.
    Russia's a bloody big place. With relatively few people. Seems strange they keep malfunctioning in populated areas. A spooky coincidence.
    If a jet crashes in a forest and nobody is around to tweet it...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.

    The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.

    A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.

    So the weirdly capitalised 'Scottish Nationalists' are right then?
    I make no judgement in that comment whether the ScotNats are right (the capitalisation seems fairly standard to me), but I'm playing with the idea of it being a framework with which to think about the political divisions in Britain today.

    Arguably the age division is the source of the divide in Scotland too, just that it has expressed itself slightly differently to England. The latest YouGov had the SNP lead Labour 45-31 overall, but behind 34-36 among over-65s.

    Resolving the age divide across Britain might resolve the question of Scottish independence, one way or another, much more clearly than the


    current stalemate.
    Nationalist is not a proper noun therefore you are wrong to capitalise it.

    'The Scottish Nationalist Party' for which it is short *is* a proper noun though.
    Shocking ignorance on a politics site
    A proper question then. How did Alba respond to Sturgeons big announcement on what Independence actually looks like, and the transition. It was quite a big declaration of things unfortunately lost beneath all these other shenanigans.

    Did Alba pretty much agree with it all, or do they actually have a different vision and path to achieving it?
    Well it was utter bollocks , wishy washy rubbish as she has no intention of upsetting the apple cart. A mismash rubbished by anyone who knows about finances.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

    Excellent, keep me sharp - I'll have no problem getting royally pissed off about all that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    The Scottish Nationalists like to make a lot of the voting intention differences between England and Scotland to argue that Scotland is politically distinct from England, that therefore there isn't a unified political demos, and so Scotland needs to be independent.

    The issue with the age-divide in voting intention is that this divide is so large, that those aged 65+ are clearly inhabiting a different political world to the rest of the country. Even after all that has happened over the last year, they would still vote for a Tory government over a Labour one. It suggests that Britain (or England & Wales if you prefer), is deeply divided among itself, arguably we no longer have a unified political demos, and this internal division will make tackling our problems much more difficult. Most likely the country is not even united over what the problems are.

    A certain amount of division and dissent is healthy, and too much consensus is a bad thing, but there has to be some common ground to make progress. Until this divide is reduced I think it is going to act as a barrier to reform, whether from the left or the right.

    So the weirdly capitalised 'Scottish Nationalists' are right then?
    I make no judgement in that comment whether the ScotNats are right (the capitalisation seems fairly standard to me), but I'm playing with the idea of it being a framework with which to think about the political divisions in Britain today.

    Arguably the age division is the source of the divide in Scotland too, just that it has expressed itself slightly differently to England. The latest YouGov had the SNP lead Labour 45-31 overall, but behind 34-36 among over-65s.

    Resolving the age divide across Britain might resolve the question of Scottish independence, one way or another, much more clearly than the current stalemate.
    Nationalist is not a proper noun therefore you are wrong to capitalise it.
    It is part of their party

    name, so it is as correct to capitalise it as it is to capitalise Labour or Conservative, or Labourite,


    etc.
    Nope, it’s the Scottish National Party and you were talking about people who supported independence for Scotland, not the party - at least that was the clear implication from your post

    You wouldn't say "Scottish Nationals" though would you? You say "Scottish Nationalists".

    I don't see why this is such a bone of contention.
    Because it has F all to do with the political party and you made a right tit of yourself by not even knowing the party name , getting it totally wrong and then conflating it with Independence supporters.
    I know perfectly well what the name of the SNP is.
    To be fair, I didn't. I thought it was 'Scottish Nationalist' because that's what everyone calls them, even though it's apparently not their official name.

    I think it's irrelevant though. People call Plaid Cymru 'Nationalists' and that isn't even remotely part of their name (or for the matter of that their policy offering)!
    Stop digging Australia beckons
    You'll roo the day you said that.

    Edit - incidentally, on a point of punctuation, there should be a comma between 'digging' and 'Australia.'
    Possumly
    Too many wallaby punners here....
    Wordplay is often used by spies to hide their messages.

    So if you're good enough at puns and treacherous enough, there are opportunities in the Russian Secret Service.

    That's right. You can GRU.
    GNU me
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Some rather tortured “logic” from Andrew Lilico:

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1584165065972146179

    TL:dr “They’re f*cked, but they’ll be less f*cked and sooner under Johnson.

    Not sure that’s as persuasive (to MPs) as he thinks it is.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,388
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

    Afternoon all;
    That does assume that Rishi is going to take any notice of her views!
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Sunak 1/5
    Johnson 6/1
    Mordaunt 40s
    Starmer 300s
    Hunt 750s
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    Freggles said:

    Forecasts for the half of my mortgage that is up for renewal in December? 😬

    7%
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,475

    MaxPB said:

    Lol even the maddest right winger has gone for Rishi. That's got to be the end of Boris.

    Shades of Ken Clarke and John Redwood.
    Yeah but here's the peculiar thing. Sunak isn't really Clarke and Johnson isn't Redwood.
    In the analogy Braverman is Redwood.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

    Well, he's not exactly a fluffy centrist. He just is more competent.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019


    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Nadhim Zahawi
    @nadhimzahawi
    ·
    6m
    I’m backing Boris. He got the big calls right, whether it was ordering more vaccines ahead of more waves of covid, arming 🇺🇦 early against the advice of some, or stepping down for the sake of unity. But now, Britain needs him back. We need to unite to deliver on our manifesto 1/2
    Nadhim Zahawi
    @nadhimzahawi
    When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better.
    With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity 2/2

    Zahawi?

    Krishnan Guru-Murthy applies.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,913
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

    What a child she is.
  • New thread.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,329

    Stocky said:

    If Johnson, Sunak and Mordaunt all reach 100 then there is a vote of Tory MPs to establish the final two AIUI.

    How is that vote conducted? Is it secret? Do they just vote for their choice or do they give a second choice?

    If Boris just crawls over the 100 line, then as I have said repeatedly, if he has enough to lend to Penny, Rishi should indeed lend enough to put Penny over the line. Easier to manipulate that vote to exclude Boris from the final 2 than to risk a straight Rishi v Boris members vote that Rishi may well lose.

    Obs, the deal is then that Penny drops out for a immediate Rishi coronation.
    Why the fuck should she do that? Hardly her problem if Sunak wants to game the system (again) because he's about as popular as a bucket of cold sick.
This discussion has been closed.