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Why hypothetical polling is bobbins – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
Why hypothetical polling is bobbins – politicalbetting.com

I'm sure the Tory position would improve somewhat under a new leader but I am always very sceptical of hypothetical polling. https://t.co/DnnZuwZhcs

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Comments

  • Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    4 Rishi says he wouldn’t serve under Boris, Boris says he wouldn’t serve under Rishi. So they split up Chancellor and Foreign Sec and Penny acts as the unifier at the helm.
  • And just to get second as well...

    A question: for what percentage of MPs is Mordaunt their second choice?
    I reckon it's up in the 70s...
  • moonshine said:

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    4 Rishi says he wouldn’t serve under Boris, Boris says he wouldn’t serve under Rishi. So they split up Chancellor and Foreign Sec and Penny acts as the unifier at the helm.
    Surely both are too ambitious for that? Especially if one or other thinks they can win anyway...?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    The hypothetical polls in the header shows no difference between Rishi and Boris, so in this case, it does not really matter whether they are valid or not.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930

    moonshine said:

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    4 Rishi says he wouldn’t serve under Boris, Boris says he wouldn’t serve under Rishi. So they split up Chancellor and Foreign Sec and Penny acts as the unifier at the helm.
    Surely both are too ambitious for that? Especially if one or other thinks they can win anyway...?
    The summit was surely not about winning the war but winning the peace.
  • moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    4 Rishi says he wouldn’t serve under Boris, Boris says he wouldn’t serve under Rishi. So they split up Chancellor and Foreign Sec and Penny acts as the unifier at the helm.
    Surely both are too ambitious for that? Especially if one or other thinks they can win anyway...?
    The summit was surely not about winning the war but winning the peace.
    It would be nice to think so. But we're talking big-beast politicians here, where ambition may well exceed any sense of duty
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Yep @TSE is right. The Mail on Sunday should know better. Their journalists probably do. But they publish it with sensational headlines anyway. Why? Because objective reporting is of no interest to them.

    They bear a significant part of the blame for this country's descent into chaos.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 23

    The hypothetical polls in the header shows no difference between Rishi and Boris, so in this case, it does not really matter whether they are valid or not.

    The figures repeated from "Will Lloyd" on twitter in the thread are not the same as those published in the Mail on Sunday. The Conservative share is wrong above. Not sure what's happened there but in the MoS Johnson trails by 10% and Sunak by 17%.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11344021/Boris-Rishi-meet-TONIGHT-hash-deal-govern-together.html
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 23
    I'm not convinced Penny is anything like so popular amongst her own MPs as some of you are making out. The idea that votes will simply switch to her is, imho, slightly lazy thinking.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    edited October 23
    Heathener said:

    The hypothetical polls in the header shows no difference between Rishi and Boris, so in this case, it does not really matter whether they are valid or not.

    The figures repeated from "Will Lloyd" on twitter in the thread are not the same as those published in the Mail on Sunday. The Conservative share is wrong above. Not sure what's happened there but in the MoS Johnson trails by 10% and Sunak by 17%.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11344021/Boris-Rishi-meet-TONIGHT-hash-deal-govern-together.html
    The Mail on Sunday poll (Deltapoll) is a completely different poll to the one in the thread header (JL Partners).

    MoS poll has just been released. I think the JL Partners poll was a few days ago.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    There's also (4) that they unite around A.N. Other. It's more of a flex for Boris to elevate some other random person, and the party will breathe a sign of relief if they can unite around any non-insane person.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    MikeL said:

    Heathener said:

    The hypothetical polls in the header shows no difference between Rishi and Boris, so in this case, it does not really matter whether they are valid or not.

    The figures repeated from "Will Lloyd" on twitter in the thread are not the same as those published in the Mail on Sunday. The Conservative share is wrong above. Not sure what's happened there but in the MoS Johnson trails by 10% and Sunak by 17%.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11344021/Boris-Rishi-meet-TONIGHT-hash-deal-govern-together.html
    The Mail on Sunday poll (Deltapoll) is a completely different poll to the one in the thread header (JL Partners).

    MoS poll has just been released. I think the JL Partners poll was a few days ago.
    Ah okay. Thanks for the clarification.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Boris still isn't close to 100 noms, despite what his campaign team says, Boris met Rishi last night - which he'd have no interest in doing if it was going well for him, and Boris looks tired and pissed off in his photos.

    Conclusion: it's not going well for him. I think he needs the air of inevitability to get the noms, hence why his team keep ramping that it's a done deal - so undecided MPs fall in line for the jobs.

    He might have another 25+ MPs come out for him today, and do I expect some, but I think it's a stretch now.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Worth reflecting that the nominations threshold (which is an arbitrary figure chosen by 1922 Committee) could very well decide the result.

    If it was 80, Boris would almost certainly be nominated.

    If it was 120, Boris would almost certainly not be nominated.

    Whereas in fact it's 100 and could go either way.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 23

    Boris looks tired and pissed off in his photos.

    Agree with that. I thought the same: strained.

    Which begs the question, for me, as to why Rishi bothered to meet with him? I see from here very little upside for Sunak and a lot of negativity going forward. A so-called dream ticket could introduce a lot of unnecessary toxicity for Rishi and it begs a nagging question I, and others, have had about him:

    Does he lack the killer instinct for the top job? He could have taken down Boris way back before Putin's invasion, when Sunak's star was riding high, but he dithered back then too.

    I think he's the best of the bad bunch but my old doubts about him are returning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: the betting markets aren't fully up on Ladbrokes so I might wait a bit before betting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    It remains my view as per Friday that Johnson won’t run. He’s probably just trying to make Sunak’s life as unpleasant and difficult as possible, and maybe after some concession such as promise of a move to a safe seat. Whether he actually has the 100 still isn’t clear, but I’d assume he’s close.

    It doesn’t look like Mordaunt will get the 100, but if she does she will be quick to do a deal and withdraw - they can all see that coming from behind with the MPs isn’t going to wash again, and that the contest should be kept away from members.

    So it is hard to see any result other than Sunak, which remains value given that payday is probably tomorrow.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467
    MikeL said:

    Worth reflecting that the nominations threshold (which is an arbitrary figure chosen by 1922 Committee) could very well decide the result.

    If it was 80, Boris would almost certainly be nominated.

    If it was 120, Boris would almost certainly not be nominated.

    Whereas in fact it's 100 and could go either way.

    If he couldn't scrape 100 then you'd think the other >257 would have been able to organize 100 votes for another candidate to keep him away from the membership.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Heathener said:

    Boris looks tired and pissed off in his photos.

    Agree with that. I thought the same: strained.

    Which begs the question, for me, as to why Rishi bothered to meet with him? I see from here very little upside for Sunak and a lot of negativity going forward. A so-called dream ticket could introduce a lot of unnecessary toxicity for Rishi and it begs a nagging question I, and others, have had about him:

    Does he lack the killer instinct for the top job? He could have taken down Boris way back before Putin's invasion, when Sunak's star was riding high, but he dithered back then too.

    I think he's the best of the bad bunch but my old doubts about him are returning.
    I think it's in Rishi's interests to try and get Boris to withdraw before Monday because (a) that makes his path as firm as it can be and (b) helps to reconcile the party to his leadership after.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Penny out to 25 on next PM market.

    Rishi and Boris prices pretty static.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.

    My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.

    Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    edited October 23

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    Especially with the rumour that a batch of Johnson supporters are hanging back until the last minute to keep Sunak under pressure - the same rumour could of course also be cover for Johnson’s so far flaccid performance.

    One other possibility is that Johnson is doing his spoilt child act and threatening to blow up the party to stop Sunak getting the job. That would make for a long meeting, and is a bluff that would probably need to be called.

    If it were taken seriously, they’d need a compromise candidate - Mordaunt being the obvious choice, since dropping someone in out of the blue isn’t going to look credible. But Sunak would then want Chancellor yet Hunt is exceptionally difficult to move - the only other top team being Sunak as FS. And it still leaves them with Mordaunt who appears to have only minority backing within the MPs - the problem they are desperately trying to resolve.

    Incidentally, the rumours around Braverman are that she was relying on her colleague MP outside cabinet - he was named but I can’t remember - for advice on how to do her job, and met him regularly. The same MP she sent the confidential immigration policy papers to using her private email. As most of us have spotted, she isn’t up to the (former) job and I don’t buy that they would ever make her leader.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    The BBC still has him on 53 publicly declared supporters, which is only about 10 more in the last 24 hours.

    The only reason I can think of for people waiting until the last minute is that they are negotiating a quid pro quo. Looking at many of those names, we can only hope they don't get one - from either candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    edited October 23
    Incidentally, despite our relief around being about to finally (hopefully!) get rid of loony leaders, it is noteworthy that six years after the referendum and only now is a conviction Brexiter (whether Sunak or Mordaunt) getting the top job.

    Cameron never believed it. Mrs May had to pretend, after she became PM. Johnson was pretending from before the referendum, for career reasons, and Truss was pretending from after the referendum, for career reasons. Over at ConHome, they should be pleased to finally get one of their own.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.

    My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.

    Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.

    Johnson will be desperate for the story to be that he pulled out, to save the day, and not that he failed to rise to the occasion.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,362
    IanB2 said:

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    Incidentally, the rumours around Braverman are that she was relying on her colleague MP outside cabinet - he was named but I can’t remember - for advice on how to do her job, and met him regularly. The same MP she sent the confidential immigration policy papers to using her private email. As most of us have spotted, she isn’t up to the (former) job and I don’t buy that they would ever make her leader.
    Was named as John Hayes in one of the pieces I read yesterday. That can't be right surely? My partner met him at some parliamentary event and said he was a complete mansplaining whopper.
    If that is who Braverman is getting advice from then she it just adds to the impression she's not one destined to be one of the great parliamentary thinkers of our time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Chris said:


    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    The BBC still has him on 53 publicly declared supporters, which is only about 10 more in the last 24 hours.

    The only reason I can think of for people waiting until the last minute is that they are negotiating a quid pro quo. Looking at many of those names, we can only hope they don't get one - from either candidate.
    I am, for now, taking Guido's total of 74 as read for Boris in analysing how he gets to 100.

    He needs 28%+ of the party to stand and, so far on those stats, he's got about 21%.

    He needs 21% of the remaining 126 MPs to make it. So if Guido is right, and his support is disproportionately held back, he makes it by a handful - if not, he does not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    How many of those would retain a cabinet seat under Sunak? Very few I think. That might indicate how they go.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    MikeL said:

    Worth reflecting that the nominations threshold (which is an arbitrary figure chosen by 1922 Committee) could very well decide the result.

    If it was 80, Boris would almost certainly be nominated.

    If it was 120, Boris would almost certainly not be nominated.

    Whereas in fact it's 100 and could go either way.

    If he couldn't scrape 100 then you'd think the other >257 would have been able to organize 100 votes for another candidate to keep him away from the membership.
    If Johnson really is threatening to throw his toys, that strategy is Sunak’s last resort, getting a third person into the contest and then manoeuvring Johnson into last place. But it’s high risk, in a secret ballot - and carries the weakness that Sunak doesn’t go into the contest with a commanding nominations lead.

    From the MPs’ perspective I sense that they really want to gather around Sunak as the unity candidate from the off, their problem being the large bunch of recalcitrant nutters who have been the party’s problem since the 1990s.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    Observer: The last days of Truss were an utter shambles. Then the real chaos began

    The article below suggests Johnson’s campaign is well organised and financed (and was very ready!) with the object of getting him into an early and commanding position.

    If so, it would appear that it hasn’t worked?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/the-last-days-of-truss-were-an-utter-shambles-then-the-real-chaos-began

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    IanB2 said:

    Observer: The last days of Truss were an utter shambles. Then the real chaos began

    The article below suggests Johnson’s campaign is well organised and financed (and was very ready!) with the object of getting him into an early and commanding position.

    If so, it would appear that it hasn’t worked?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/the-last-days-of-truss-were-an-utter-shambles-then-the-real-chaos-began

    Ultimately, you cannot polish a turd.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Foxy said:

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    How many of those would retain a cabinet seat under Sunak? Very few I think. That might indicate how they go.
    Very few, I agree, but I think Lopez, Gove, O'Brien, Malthouse might and they all go Sunak. Nadhim Zahawi if he's sensible too.

    Steve Baker will be interesting to watch, if he declares.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Foxy said:

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    How many of those would retain a cabinet seat under Sunak? Very few I think. That might indicate how they go.
    Also, the meeting of the ERG is on Monday morning to discuss the leadership.

    They will probably endorse Johnson, so that's the point at which he could tip across.

    As soon as he does I think his price collapses down in the betting to near evens, so I'm keeping some money back to lay him then.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    Sure Farage is the big endorsement that counts. He can stampede the herd of tory MPs in whatever direction he wants by threatening to set up another party. He's already described Brexit as incomplete; according to some sibylline and protean definition accessible only to his godhead.

    Johnson should just offer Farage whatever he wants. Peerage plus High Commissioner to Australia would do it I think.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    Cicero said:

    Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.

    Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.

    In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.

    There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.

    However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last
    year.

    You’ve made some great posts this year. But calling Sunak “hard right” somewhat spoils your record. And I say that as someone who hopes he fails.

  • moonshine said:

    Cicero said:

    Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.

    Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.

    In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.

    There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.

    However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last
    year.

    You’ve made some great posts this year. But calling Sunak “hard right” somewhat spoils your record. And I say that as someone who hopes he fails.

    Good morning

    I agree and it is a misrepresentation of Sunak
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    BoZo only argument for a triumphant return is "the members want him"

    He was not a good PM, he did not get all the big calls right, he is a liar, a dilettante, a mountebank and if he did come back his term would end in scandal and recrimination. Again.

    Rishi's answer is of course "the members wanted Truss" ...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,918
    edited October 23
    Excellent article @TheScreamingEagles . Can we please remind HYUFD of this every single time he argues a point based upon on of these polls which he constantly does. Hypothetical polls although statistical accurate of what people think at the point of time are next to useless for the reasons given and logic needs to be applied to see if there is a potential flaw. I tried to argue this point with hyufd re IQs of different nationalities. A look at results and applying logic or common sense showed it was flawed. More or Less covered this issue with a poll on the use of depression medication by.young people also.

    Just check if there is flaw in what is being asked or something that is clearly wrong in the results implying a flaw in the methodology.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    No one knows what was discussed at the meeting last night so events could still throw up a major surprise today .

    Barring something outlandish happening it does seem the ERG could tip Johnson over the 100 votes. Some of the ERG though have already backed Sunak and I would be shocked if Steve Baker supported Johnson given his past comments .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 23
    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    On topic:

    Sam Freedman's tweets are a masterpiece of the Bleeding Obvious.

    He's obviously improved a lot, as when he was at the DfE he was incapable of seeing the Bleeding Obvious even when it was repeatedly pointed out to him.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Shipman: "THINKS some constructive development from talks"

    "If talks had collapsed in acrimony we would know by now"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 23
    nico679 said:

    No one knows what was discussed at the meeting last night so events could still throw up a major surprise today .

    Barring something outlandish happening it does seem the ERG could tip Johnson over the 100 votes. Some of the ERG though have already backed Sunak and I would be shocked if Steve Baker supported Johnson given his past comments .

    I crossed-checked which ERG members had already expressed support yesterday and am happy to update it today. Does anyone have a better list of ERG members than this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers

    Yesterday it was Sunak 11, Johnson 8, Mordaunt 3 (2 + Mordaunt herself)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Observer: The last days of Truss were an utter shambles. Then the real chaos began

    The article below suggests Johnson’s campaign is well organised and financed (and was very ready!) with the object of getting him into an early and commanding position.

    If so, it would appear that it hasn’t worked?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/the-last-days-of-truss-were-an-utter-shambles-then-the-real-chaos-began

    Ultimately, you cannot polish a turd.
    In Johnson's case they are attempting to return one from whence it came, which is both messy and it really should be impossible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,778

    Cicero said:

    A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Very much this.

    Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.

    His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
    Agreed. But I think he is completely unelectable due to the points in your first paragraph. I had already determined to not vote Tory during Boris's tenure, and Liz did nothing to change my mind, it will take a lot to move me back to Tory. Sometimes a party needs to be in opposition for a while.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
    I was assuming he would want a cabinet post. If he does he should get it to assuage the group that still feels aggrieved he had to resign the first time. If he subsequently has to resign because of the inquiry, well, them's the breaks. Party unity is in my view more important at this point than Boris's multiple failings.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    nico679 said:

    No one knows what was discussed at the meeting last night so events could still throw up a major surprise today .

    Barring something outlandish happening it does seem the ERG could tip Johnson over the 100 votes. Some of the ERG though have already backed Sunak and I would be shocked if Steve Baker supported Johnson given his past comments .

    I crossed-checked which ERG members had already expressed support yesterday and am happy to update it today. Does anyone have a better list of ERG members than this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers

    Yesterday it was Sunak 11, Johnson 8, Mordaunt 3 (2 + Mordaunt herself)
    Ok based on the wiki ERG list (53 ERG subscribers) and Guido's named supporters the ERG are currently supporting Sunak 11, Johnson 8, Mordaunt 3 with 29 undeclared.

    So I'd conclude that the ERG are not going to save Johnson.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Boris out a whole point this morning.

    Overnight he was around 5. Now available at 6.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Yes hypothetical polling often has limited use. But it can influence people a lot.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    MikeL said:

    Shipman: "THINKS some constructive development from talks"

    "If talks had collapsed in acrimony we would know by now"

    = Shipman: has no feckin' idea but feels the need to tweet something.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    edited October 23
    Good morning everybody. Although whether a rainy one can be described as good I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Cicero said:

    A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Very much this.

    Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.

    His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
    “has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    The hypothetical polls in the header shows no difference between Rishi and Boris, so in this case, it does not really matter whether they are valid or not.

    It does matter is someone is leaning to Boris but was worried he would do poorly, and this have them a reason to follow through on their lean.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Good morning everybody. Although weather and rainy one can be described as gold I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.

    'Tis the modern way OKC, see also Trump.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,918
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
    I was assuming he would want a cabinet post. If he does he should get it to assuage the group that still feels aggrieved he had to resign the first time. If he subsequently has to resign because of the inquiry, well, them's the breaks. Party unity is in my view more important at this point than Boris's multiple failings.
    I could be spectacularly wrong, but I find it difficult to understand why Boris would want any other job than PM so it feels to me to be all or nothing for him.

    I must admit based upon my view I can't understand why either Boris or Rishi are then in talks, so that is evidence against my view.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Cicero said:

    A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Very much this.

    Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.

    His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
    Agreed. But I think he is completely unelectable due to the points in your first paragraph. I had already determined to not vote Tory during Boris's tenure, and Liz did nothing to change my mind, it will take a lot to move me back to Tory. Sometimes a party needs to be in opposition for a while.
    So was Johnson. That didn't stop him winning an election.

    My personal view is the Tories are going to lose the next election anyway due to factors that are largely outside their control. High energy prices due to the war in Ukraine, a sluggish economy due to China's ongoing chaos, an unsettled and fractious electorate due to COVID. They have mostly, in fact, managed these as well as could be expected.

    They deserve to lose the next election for their other mistakes. The chaos in education caused by Gove's reforms. The structural weaknesses in the NHS caused by Lansley. Both of these exacerbated by chronic underfunding which leaves the systems acutely understaffed and the building stock in a very bad way. The attempt to borrow to cut taxes, of which enough said. Eat Out To Help Out (which was Sunak's idea, after all) rather than a serious attempt to upgrade our digital infrastructure to guard against the return of COVID. The constant cuts to capital investment which means our gas, communications (virtual and physical) water and power grids are years behind where they need to be.

    Will Labour be better? Quite possibly not. After all, lack of investment in infrastructure and the grotesque mismanagement of what investment there was was a feature of the Blair/Brown years. But they will be different. And reminding politicians that power is not God-given but has to be earned is in itself part of ensuring governance is never intolerable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    Yes, I think we have to assume all three candidates will get higher than the announced (named) figure, given how many MPs are left, even if not all nominate someone. That's why him getting near would make for a very nervous wait.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Shocked to be first again.

    I see three possibilities...

    1 A deal has been done
    ...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM

    2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
    ...in which case it's 50-50 with the members

    3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
    ...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members

    I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%

    ...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...

    ...so Mordaunt's the value bet.

    Happy to be shot down!!

    I’d suggest their probabilities are 15%, 50% and 5%, the remainder going to no deal and Sunak is the only nominee. And if Johnson is nominated, I’d give him more than 50/50 with the members.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Good morning everybody. Although weather and rainy one can be described as gold I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.

    'Tis the modern way OKC, see also Trump.
    And Berlusconi. And Netanyahu.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Ouch

    Boris Johnson would be a disaster.
    ‘He’s a guaranteed nailed-on failure’
    -Steve Baker
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"(Again)

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Just correcting what Baker said.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Scott_xP said:

    Ouch

    Boris Johnson would be a disaster.
    ‘He’s a guaranteed nailed-on failure’
    -Steve Baker

    So both Steve Baker and Sam Freedman have said something vaguely sane?

    Nobody tell Leon, but I think the apocalypse is today...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Cicero said:

    A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Very much this.

    Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.

    His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
    “has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
    Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked.
    I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.

    I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.

    I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
    I'm suspecting Johnson will sit on the backbenches until the Privileges Committee suspend him and he faces a recall.

    Then he'll resign and seek and safer seat.

    Nothing to prevent him being elected at the next GE or at a by-election created by his resignation honours list.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
    I’m staying on a lordly ranch in south east Arizona. Owners are white people who have been here generations - who have Latino servants who have served them for generations. Plus everyone has guns

    It’s extraordinarily feudal. America is so weird

    Fucking great margaritas tho
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Good morning everybody. Although whether a rainy one can be described as good I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.

    Woke to a thunderstorm so went down and watched the women thrash SA at the WC. Like the good old days seeing a side tire and ship points in the last 20 minutes.
    Weather clearing through, so dog may yet have a dry walk later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    MikeL said:

    Boris out a whole point this morning.

    Overnight he was around 5. Now available at 6.

    Morning all,

    Yes - just logged on to see that. Has something happened?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    Scott_xP said:

    Ouch

    Boris Johnson would be a disaster.
    ‘He’s a guaranteed nailed-on failure’
    -Steve Baker

    He's right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Baker backs Rishi
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Huge development.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    So that's ERG splitting Sunak 13, Johnson 8, Mordaunt 3 so far.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Boris still isn't close to 100 noms, despite what his campaign team says, Boris met Rishi last night - which he'd have no interest in doing if it was going well for him, and Boris looks tired and pissed off in his photos.

    Conclusion: it's not going well for him. I think he needs the air of inevitability to get the noms, hence why his team keep ramping that it's a done deal - so undecided MPs fall in line for the jobs.

    He might have another 25+ MPs come out for him today, and do I expect some, but I think it's a stretch now.

    Maybe he’s just jetlagged?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    nico679 said:

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
    Massive development it seems to me.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 23
    Cicero said:

    Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.

    Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.

    In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.

    There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.

    However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it must be Boris'
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Huge development.

    I thought Baker had already declared for Rishi yesterday.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,362

    Good morning everybody. Although weather and rainy one can be described as gold I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.

    'Tis the modern way OKC, see also Trump.
    And Berlusconi. And Netanyahu.

    Our institutions rely on people playing by the rules and that they will be punished if they don't. Remember when New Labour would routinely sack someone if they were in the headlines for more than 3 days in a row? Now right wingers have worked out that they can just tough it out and their buddies in the media will look the other way and repeat any spurious bullshit about their opponents.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    This really is the key point dozens of MPs are wilfully forgetting. Boris is sleazy and will constantly demand MPs embarrass themselves defending him rather than at least thinking about the country.

    They're losing either way, why spend the time that is left massaging Boris Johnson's taint?
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 90

    I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.

    My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.

    Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.

    He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).

    He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.

    And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.

    The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
  • While I totally agree hypothetical polling is garbage, the Article 50 example is a terrible one since the way it played out the opposition (both literal and Grieve etc) took full responsibility for A50 being extended, not the Government, which united the Tory and BXP votes.

    Had the Opposition not done that, things may have played out very differently.
  • nico679 said:

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
    Massive development it seems to me.

    It is and the language used is damning

    Full marks to Baker
  • Tres said:

    IanB2 said:

    Also, of the names yet to declare there are several big ones - some in Government and some backbenchers:

    Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.

    That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.

    My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.

    Incidentally, the rumours around Braverman are that she was relying on her colleague MP outside cabinet - he was named but I can’t remember - for advice on how to do her job, and met him regularly. The same MP she sent the confidential immigration policy papers to using her private email. As most of us have spotted, she isn’t up to the (former) job and I don’t buy that they would ever make her leader.
    Was named as John Hayes in one of the pieces I read yesterday. That can't be right surely? My partner met him at some parliamentary event and said he was a complete mansplaining whopper.
    If that is who Braverman is getting advice from then she it just adds to the impression she's not one destined to be one of the great parliamentary thinkers of our time.
    Hayes is the Conservative MP with the largest majority, and coincidentally the smallest brain.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    Reading through the Sundays today, it seems most likely that Sunak emerges from this fiasco as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson has not got the needed momentum and Mordaunt reminds too many people, however unfairly, of Liz Truss.

    Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.

    In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.

    There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.

    However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Now there's just the small job of giving their 180,000 members the boot. If you thought Momentum were a load of knobs this lot are worse. I saw one of these self appointed octogenarian king makers on TV yesterday saying 'the expefriment of choosing a woman has been shown not to work. So it can't be Penny it's got to be Boris'
    Hmm, one of 180,000, and one selected by the media (?) for some reason? Can you see the issue? #selectionbias #cherrypicking

    Vox pops are not to be trusted.
  • Looks like we're getting Rishi on Monday. Johnson won't get a job - won't want to be bound by collective cabinet responsibility and wants ££££>
  • nico679 said:

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
    Massive development it seems to me.

    It is and the language used is damning

    Full marks to Baker
    Absolutely.

    The opposition to Sunak should be going to PM4PM not Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Cicero said:

    A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.

    Very much this.

    Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.

    His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
    “has some respect for the rule of law” Although he broke it of course.
    Do you really believe that? Of all the fines we know about, surely Sunak was the most ridiculous. He turned up for a meeting which others hijacked.
    I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.

    I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.

    I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
    Party gate and the economy made winning the next GE more of a challenge. Truss and Boris made it impossible.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    IanB2 said:

    I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.

    My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.

    Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.

    Johnson will be desperate for the story to be that he pulled out, to save the day, and not that he failed to rise to the occasion.
    Johnson has often risen to the occasion and failed to pull out… Hopefully the Tory party are on the Pill.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    Tres said:

    Good morning everybody. Although weather and rainy one can be described as gold I'm not sure!

    I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.

    'Tis the modern way OKC, see also Trump.
    And Berlusconi. And Netanyahu.

    Our institutions rely on people playing by the rules and that they will be punished if they don't. Remember when New Labour would routinely sack someone if they were in the headlines for more than 3 days in a row? Now right wingers have worked out that they can just tough it out and their buddies in the media will look the other way and repeat any spurious bullshit about their opponents.
    Yes, and then they would come back around. #Mandelson #Blunkett
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,631

    nico679 said:

    Influential right-wing Brexiteer Steve Baker backs Rishi Sunak -and says "I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson". Warning of the Privileges Committee time bomb he says: "When that vote comes, and it will, his premiership will implode"

    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617

    Not a surprise but still that’s a big endorsement and what he adds re integrity and the privileges committee will surely resonate .
    Massive development it seems to me.

    It is and the language used is damning

    Full marks to Baker
    Steve Baker was never going to support Johnson.

    He was one of the earliest to call for his resignation - back in January:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/steve-baker-boris-johnson-downing-street-prime-minister-theresa-may-b1997427.html
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    Keystone said:

    I think Boris gets to 90-95 MPs...somehow. The question is whether others can be convinced at the last minute to push him over the line to force a vote, and then a members vote.

    My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.

    Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.

    He'll get over 100 MP nominations. (If you're a Red Wall MP, he is your only hope).

    He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.

    And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.

    The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
    I think you are wrong on all counts.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    Some of those backing Johnson seem to be living in la la land .

    Seemingly ignoring the privileges committee and the possibility that the Tories will need to find another leader next year .
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
    I'm suspecting Johnson will sit on the backbenches until the Privileges Committee suspend him and he faces a recall.

    Then he'll resign and seek and safer seat.

    Nothing to prevent him being elected at the next GE or at a by-election created by his resignation honours list.
    I agree. However I think he’ll want some distance between the resignation and return, and to want to be seen as having been midwife to the new unity PM (hence the discussions). Far easier to slide into a safe seat at the next election than at a by-election where he’s the media circus.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that we are very likely to find that Rishi is the only candidate that gets to the 100 (and he will be nearer 200) on Monday and it will then be all over.

    The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.

    The problem with Johnson being in the cabinet is (a) he wants to be elsewhere earning loadsa dosh and (b) if he is expelled from Parliament while in the cabinet that's going to be very hard for the new leader to explain away. That's even before we get to all the issues around his personality, you know, the lying, the laziness, rudeness, arrogance, incoherence etc. or his incorrigible tendency to plot against everyone for his own benefit.

    Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
    Surely Boris is what the title Deputy Prime Minister was created for. Lots of prestige; no work; no responsibility. If Rishi can sort him out a big house in the country, all the better.
This discussion has been closed.