Categories
Why hypothetical polling is bobbins – politicalbetting.com
Why hypothetical polling is bobbins – politicalbetting.com
I'm sure the Tory position would improve somewhat under a new leader but I am always very sceptical of hypothetical polling. https://t.co/DnnZuwZhcs
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I see three possibilities...
1 A deal has been done
...eg BoJo is Foreign Secretary to Rishi's PM
2 BoJo gets 100 and stays to fight
...in which case it's 50-50 with the members
3 BoJo doesn't get 100 but Mordaunt does (from stop-Rishi MPs)
...in which case Mordaunt is 60-40 with the members
I rate the chances of those as being 60%, 20% and 20%
...which gives Rishi a 78% chance, BoJo 10% and Mordaunt 12%...
...so Mordaunt's the value bet.
Happy to be shot down!!
A question: for what percentage of MPs is Mordaunt their second choice?
I reckon it's up in the 70s...
They bear a significant part of the blame for this country's descent into chaos.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11344021/Boris-Rishi-meet-TONIGHT-hash-deal-govern-together.html
MoS poll has just been released. I think the JL Partners poll was a few days ago.
Conclusion: it's not going well for him. I think he needs the air of inevitability to get the noms, hence why his team keep ramping that it's a done deal - so undecided MPs fall in line for the jobs.
He might have another 25+ MPs come out for him today, and do I expect some, but I think it's a stretch now.
If it was 80, Boris would almost certainly be nominated.
If it was 120, Boris would almost certainly not be nominated.
Whereas in fact it's 100 and could go either way.
Which begs the question, for me, as to why Rishi bothered to meet with him? I see from here very little upside for Sunak and a lot of negativity going forward. A so-called dream ticket could introduce a lot of unnecessary toxicity for Rishi and it begs a nagging question I, and others, have had about him:
Does he lack the killer instinct for the top job? He could have taken down Boris way back before Putin's invasion, when Sunak's star was riding high, but he dithered back then too.
I think he's the best of the bad bunch but my old doubts about him are returning.
F1: the betting markets aren't fully up on Ladbrokes so I might wait a bit before betting.
It doesn’t look like Mordaunt will get the 100, but if she does she will be quick to do a deal and withdraw - they can all see that coming from behind with the MPs isn’t going to wash again, and that the contest should be kept away from members.
So it is hard to see any result other than Sunak, which remains value given that payday is probably tomorrow.
Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Michael Gove, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Therese Coffey, Jake Berry, Chloe Smith, Ranil Jayawardena, Michelle Donelan, Vicky Ford, Jackie Doyle-Price, Nus Ghani, Kit Malthouse, Julia Lopez, Alister Jack, Mims Davies, Neil O'Brien... Liz Truss.
That's about a sixth of those left. Two things: (1) a quick scan of the names suggests up to 10 of those will go Boris (2) they might never declare, as they argue they are sitting ministers, so would have to back him (anonymously) by 2pm Monday, which could happen at the last minute.
My point: don't assume if Boris hasn't hit 100 by the end of today that he definitely won't.
Rishi and Boris prices pretty static.
My view? Not this time. But I might be wrong.
Even if that does happen, I think he loses said members vote.
One other possibility is that Johnson is doing his spoilt child act and threatening to blow up the party to stop Sunak getting the job. That would make for a long meeting, and is a bluff that would probably need to be called.
If it were taken seriously, they’d need a compromise candidate - Mordaunt being the obvious choice, since dropping someone in out of the blue isn’t going to look credible. But Sunak would then want Chancellor yet Hunt is exceptionally difficult to move - the only other top team being Sunak as FS. And it still leaves them with Mordaunt who appears to have only minority backing within the MPs - the problem they are desperately trying to resolve.
Incidentally, the rumours around Braverman are that she was relying on her colleague MP outside cabinet - he was named but I can’t remember - for advice on how to do her job, and met him regularly. The same MP she sent the confidential immigration policy papers to using her private email. As most of us have spotted, she isn’t up to the (former) job and I don’t buy that they would ever make her leader.
The only reason I can think of for people waiting until the last minute is that they are negotiating a quid pro quo. Looking at many of those names, we can only hope they don't get one - from either candidate.
Cameron never believed it. Mrs May had to pretend, after she became PM. Johnson was pretending from before the referendum, for career reasons, and Truss was pretending from after the referendum, for career reasons. Over at ConHome, they should be pleased to finally get one of their own.
If that is who Braverman is getting advice from then she it just adds to the impression she's not one destined to be one of the great parliamentary thinkers of our time.
He needs 28%+ of the party to stand and, so far on those stats, he's got about 21%.
He needs 21% of the remaining 126 MPs to make it. So if Guido is right, and his support is disproportionately held back, he makes it by a handful - if not, he does not.
From the MPs’ perspective I sense that they really want to gather around Sunak as the unity candidate from the off, their problem being the large bunch of recalcitrant nutters who have been the party’s problem since the 1990s.
The article below suggests Johnson’s campaign is well organised and financed (and was very ready!) with the object of getting him into an early and commanding position.
If so, it would appear that it hasn’t worked?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/the-last-days-of-truss-were-an-utter-shambles-then-the-real-chaos-began
Steve Baker will be interesting to watch, if he declares.
They will probably endorse Johnson, so that's the point at which he could tip across.
As soon as he does I think his price collapses down in the betting to near evens, so I'm keeping some money back to lay him then.
Although there is still a cadre of right wingers and nutters who could bring the temple down, and it is not yet a done deal, nevertheless Kemi Badenoch coming out for Sunak is important.
In the end I think Sunak will get his coronation and with a massive sigh of relief the Tory party will rally round. I do not think they can avoid defeat at the next general election, and probably a 1997 pasting, but the defeat may not be an extinction level event if Sunak can stabilize the situation.
There are still huge risks: the economic policies now needed to repair the economic damage will be extremely unpopular and if the Tories cannot even fake a facade of unity then things could return to the current chaos within a matter of weeks.
However, I think Tory MPs are tired and scared and Sunak is now the only game in town. A pretty callous, hard right, continuity Brexit, game that will annoy the voters to be sure, but at least the voters will be being annoyed in a conventional way, not the disastrous annoyance of the last year.
Johnson should just offer Farage whatever he wants. Peerage plus High Commissioner to Australia would do it I think.
I agree and it is a misrepresentation of Sunak
He was not a good PM, he did not get all the big calls right, he is a liar, a dilettante, a mountebank and if he did come back his term would end in scandal and recrimination. Again.
Rishi's answer is of course "the members wanted Truss" ...
Sunak is offering Austerity 2.0 delivered by a multi-millionaire with 17 homes and a contempt for anywhere less leafy than Tunbridge Wells.
His selling points are “not hopelessly incompetent” and “has some respect for the rule of law”. Compared to the last two PMs this is an evident improvement, and it looks like Tory MPs have belatedly been convinced of this. But it’s a desperately low bar to clear.
Just check if there is flaw in what is being asked or something that is clearly wrong in the results implying a flaw in the methodology.
Barring something outlandish happening it does seem the ERG could tip Johnson over the 100 votes. Some of the ERG though have already backed Sunak and I would be shocked if Steve Baker supported Johnson given his past comments .
The challenge then for Rishi is to bring the party together and that means a fairly diverse cabinet. It is not impossible that Boris will be in it, I am not bothered one way or another but a lot of the dead wood brought in by Truss has to go, including Braverman. Hunt obviously remains Chancellor, Wallace Defence, but after that there are lots of jobs up for grabs. Mordaunt is due a largish department which will be a chance to prove herself. Badenoch too should be up for a big promotion and I would like to see Gove back.
Sam Freedman's tweets are a masterpiece of the Bleeding Obvious.
He's obviously improved a lot, as when he was at the DfE he was incapable of seeing the Bleeding Obvious even when it was repeatedly pointed out to him.
"If talks had collapsed in acrimony we would know by now"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers
Yesterday it was Sunak 11, Johnson 8, Mordaunt 3 (2 + Mordaunt herself)
Smart move is to say he's ineligible while the investigation is ongoing, and he will be brought in as party chairman if he's cleared. Since he's most unlikely to be cleared, he can then be removed from Parliament and go off earning his megabucks elsewhere.
So I'd conclude that the ERG are not going to save Johnson.
Overnight he was around 5. Now available at 6.
I completely failed to understand how anybody can be seriously considered for high office when they are under investigation for a variety of forms of malpractice.
I must admit based upon my view I can't understand why either Boris or Rishi are then in talks, so that is evidence against my view.
My personal view is the Tories are going to lose the next election anyway due to factors that are largely outside their control. High energy prices due to the war in Ukraine, a sluggish economy due to China's ongoing chaos, an unsettled and fractious electorate due to COVID. They have mostly, in fact, managed these as well as could be expected.
They deserve to lose the next election for their other mistakes. The chaos in education caused by Gove's reforms. The structural weaknesses in the NHS caused by Lansley. Both of these exacerbated by chronic underfunding which leaves the systems acutely understaffed and the building stock in a very bad way. The attempt to borrow to cut taxes, of which enough said. Eat Out To Help Out (which was Sunak's idea, after all) rather than a serious attempt to upgrade our digital infrastructure to guard against the return of COVID. The constant cuts to capital investment which means our gas, communications (virtual and physical) water and power grids are years behind where they need to be.
Will Labour be better? Quite possibly not. After all, lack of investment in infrastructure and the grotesque mismanagement of what investment there was was a feature of the Blair/Brown years. But they will be different. And reminding politicians that power is not God-given but has to be earned is in itself part of ensuring governance is never intolerable.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1584086326692847617
Boris Johnson would be a disaster.
‘He’s a guaranteed nailed-on failure’
-Steve Baker
Nobody tell Leon, but I think the apocalypse is today...
I’ve not heard of parties he was at, he wasn’t in the garden for the infamous photos.
I sense that the public believes Johnson was partying when he shouldn’t have (although I think the reality is far, far tamer than the image that presents). I don’t think they have that impression of Sunak. Sunak, if anything, was the one behind furlough, and business support.
I think the next election is lost for the Tories. Partygate plus the economy did that. It’s not Starmer, who is the classic blank slate that people are projecting hopes onto. It’s not a refreshed Labour Party bristling with ideas and competent ministers in waiting. But the Tories can choose defeat and a chance to rebuild again, as always needs to happen vs anhilation. Johnson is the latter.
Then he'll resign and seek and safer seat.
Nothing to prevent him being elected at the next GE or at a by-election created by his resignation honours list.
It’s extraordinarily feudal. America is so weird
Fucking great margaritas tho
Weather clearing through, so dog may yet have a dry walk later.
Yes - just logged on to see that. Has something happened?
They're losing either way, why spend the time that is left massaging Boris Johnson's taint?
He'll win the membership election over Sunak. We all know this in our hearts.
And sadly, I suspect he will win the Conservative party a narrow but solid majority at a new GE, which he may bring forward to Spring 2024.
The cost of this will be a Corn Laws/Peron type split in the Conservative party.
Had the Opposition not done that, things may have played out very differently.
Full marks to Baker
Vox pops are not to be trusted.
The opposition to Sunak should be going to PM4PM not Johnson.
As for Sunak, doing a deal would be giving special treatment to a bone idle waster who would make no positive contribution, and a strong signal of weakness.
The Tories need to lance the Johnson boil. Any indulgence of him would be total madness that could only end badly.
He was one of the earliest to call for his resignation - back in January:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/steve-baker-boris-johnson-downing-street-prime-minister-theresa-may-b1997427.html
Seemingly ignoring the privileges committee and the possibility that the Tories will need to find another leader next year .