The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe – politicalbetting.com

mwadams said:

As true today as it was yesterday 🤣

They are just a bunch of clowns, bit like trying to pin the tail on the donkey. Intellect , skills and principles are definitely NOT what gets you up the Tory greasy pole.

kinabalu said:

bondegezou said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Based on the distribution of votes to date, I now expect:

Sunak, 149 nominations
Boris, 114 nominations
Mordaunt, 34 nominations

60 we will not find out.

Johnson drifting out towards 5 this lunchtime.

Yep. Bubble popping now, I think. Double digits soon.

Maybe he seemed a more attractive proposition when he was over the water, but now he’s back in the country, MPs are remembering what he’s like!

Ha, yes. I think it's been largely a hype operation though. Got him back in the news so I suppose he'll be happy enough. The thing I want to see now is the privileges committee doing a proper job and finding him guilty of lying to parliament and hence goodbye. Ok, there'll no doubt be speeches and columns and books but I won't have to partake of any of them. Happy days.

It will be wonderful if the wicked clown can't get to 100.

I suggested this yesterday during peak Boris excitement.

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Poor show when you're the actual shits in shit creek.

Nice one Forest.

dixiedean said:

Nice one Forest.

That is how to get the job done.

Very ordinary innings from Hales. Dropped twice and then caught for no more than a run a ball 19.

ThomasNashe said:

If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

Totally agree. Spot on.

The only thing is that there may be a lot of pressure for an election next year.

DavidL said:

Very ordinary innings from Hales. Dropped twice and then caught for no more than a run a ball 19.

Good job Emgland bat deep ;-)

Two things:

1. FYI, just looking through Guido's list, the one category of MPs who don't seem to have come out much yet - bar
a few exceptions - are the Red Wall MPs. I'm of the view Rishi gives them less of a chance to save their seats than BJ but let's see.

2. Again, looking through the list, there are around 100+ MPs still to come out and voice support, still enough to get at least BJ across the line.

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part). If Rishi was the nailed on person he is supposed to be, yoh probably would have more momentum. It seems like Rishi is getting his advice from Gavin Williamson as to how to play this.

ThomasNashe said:

MarqueeMark said:

What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

Mid-table here we come!

It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.

I know, it was only Liverpool.....

Heathener said:

ThomasNashe said:

If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

Totally agree. Spot on.

The only thing is that there may be a lot of pressure for an election next year.

Given what the next two years look like if he can get things back to low 40s vs high 20s its probably not a dreadful option.

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Sigh…

England know this isn't a test match right?

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.

Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?

EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.

ThomasNashe said:

MarqueeMark said:

What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

Mid-table here we come!

It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.

It's all about the volatility in the bottom half of of the PL. Put together a few wins and draws and you rapidly drag yourself out of the mire. The opposite is also true.

So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?

bondegezou said:

So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?

A bit slow.

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Time for Biden to tell the to get fucked tbh. Having the US, France and the UK provide Germany's national defence should entail a cost to the German taxpayer.

ThomasNashe said:

If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

2024 is a long way away.

It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

It's actually rather high - you'd be surprised.

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

I think that you might be surprised by how many political wonks, in and out of parliament read PB.

I was talking to my MP the other day, mentioned it. She was a bit startled, then almost guilty, said that she scrolled through. Apparently, the dissection of announced policies - as in "talking points against" is really interesting.

mwadams said:

ThomasNashe said:

MarqueeMark said:

What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

Mid-table here we come!

It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.

It's all about the volatility in the bottom half of of the PL. Put together a few wins and draws and you rapidly drag yourself out of the mire. The opposite is also true.

Yep Leeds have gone from easy street mid table season to fodder in a few games

mwadams said:

I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

🤦🏻‍♂️

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Two things:

1. FYI, just looking through Guido's list, the one category of MPs who don't seem to have come out much yet - bar
a few exceptions - are the Red Wall MPs. I'm of the view Rishi gives them less of a chance to save their seats than BJ but let's see.

2. Again, looking through the list, there are around 100+ MPs still to come out and voice support, still enough to get at least BJ across the line.

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part). If Rishi was the nailed on person he is supposed to be, yoh probably would have more momentum. It seems like Rishi is getting his advice from Gavin Williamson as to how to play this.

I struggle with the idea that Boris is key to the Red Wall given how badly he was polling in it before his defenestration.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.

Maybe they’ve made a new assessment of the threat posed by the Russian armed forces and concluded that the Russian tanks would struggle to even reach the German border?

Casino_Royale said:

ThomasNashe said:

If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

2024 is a long way away.

It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.

If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue

Andy_JS said:

Stokes out for 2 is a major coup for Afghanistan.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/60117935

It sounds ridiculous to say it but he has not demonstrated his right to be in this team recently.

Dura_Ace said:

biggles said:

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Sigh…

Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?

Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).

I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dyed, agreed. Leeds had a pretty good start but their form has fallen off a lot.

While Manchester United got a lot of attention for a shit start they've bounced back nicely, whereas Liverpool have been iffy all season.

Marsch is a very poor manager, they probably have the players to stay up if they sort out the defensive mess and buy someone to replace Bamford who is completely shot
Liverpool wont make the CL, Man Utd.... lets see

Theuniondivvie said:

Dura_Ace said:

biggles said:

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING:

Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

Sigh…

Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?

Probably won't cut much Senf in the Bundeskanzleramt, but stopping the PB Germanophobes going off on one for the umpteenth time?

I think the actual change in German attitudes that needs to happen most is more fundamental and about dropping the pacifist post-WW2 nonsense - having an outward looking defence capability is a part of that. Same with Japan. It was all 70 years ago and for the sake of their own sense of pride and self esteem both countries need to move on.

No modern German should ever give their role in the Second World War a second thought - I think many still do, sadly.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

Strugglingtomakehalfwayology surely.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

Come off it. AV ok, Sindy fine, but topology's a bit of a stretch isn't it?

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....

IanB2 said:

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....

I wonder if we'll get a rerun of "And I have concluded that person cannot be me" with obligatory tears from Nads.

biggles said:

Razedabode said:

Casino_Royale said:

ThomasNashe said:

If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

2024 is a long way away.

It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.

If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue

This narrative that the Tories are guaranteed to lose is brave, I think. Long way to go.

True. But looking back at 1992 (which would be a comparable situation) the Tory polling nadir (which was 2 years out) never saw an average below 30% and they had a solid period of competence and the much derided, but real, green shoots of recovery, along with a Labour leadership that was still widely mocked.

Yes, the Tories are starting from a stronger position in terms of number of seats, but all the other fundamentals look worse.

ETA: I should say, comparative competence. I don't want to overstate it.

Most of what people remember is from Black Wednesday onwards, which leads to 1997.

Benpointer said:

Razedabode said:

Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

Not sure if that’s a bluff

'Apparently'

A source would be good, even an unreliable one.

BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.

Hrm - on the BBC live news feed he says :

"Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, meaning he could be on the ballot on Monday if he chooses to be."

But on twitter he says :

"NEW: I’m told Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers and so could be on the ballot if he chooses to be"

Which is slightly different.

Chris Mason

Political editor

Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, meaning he could be on the ballot on Monday if he chooses to be.

The morons are going to do it aren't they.....surely the only way to stop him now is all in on Sunak so he gets 250 nominations.

He's going to say he has the numbers but has chosen not to run.

IanB2 said:

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....

More like Charles Edward Stuart at Glenfinnan (from an island earlier, too: Eriskay).

How about Boris, scenting too many obstacles, comes out in favour of...

kinabalu said:

IanB2 said:

Heathener said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.

Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....

I wonder if we'll get a rerun of "And I have concluded that person cannot be me" with obligatory tears from Nads.

Very likely.

It's a better long term bet for Johnson anyway. If the Privileges Committee does one on him he can resign his seat (rather than face a recall) elevate a safe-seat friend to the Lords (summer resignation honours) and stand for LOtO after the GE24 defeat. If they let him off, same plan really - Uxbridge looks a bit precarious at the next GE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

Even Leicester could thrash the Forest...

And topology? Shape up!

Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.

Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.

Alistair said:

gettingbetter said:

The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.

Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.

It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election