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The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe – politicalbetting.com

If you added together all the synonyms for shit I get the feeling the word 'SHIT' would be biggest word on the word cloud. https://t.co/0CwMTYY36s

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    As true today as it was yesterday 🤣
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446
    mwadams said:

    As true today as it was yesterday 🤣

    They are just a bunch of clowns, bit like trying to pin the tail on the donkey. Intellect , skills and principles are definitely NOT what gets you up the Tory greasy pole.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 22
    England really need to speed up here. Not to win this game but because of NRR. Huge outfield though. Would have been a lot more boundaries on most grounds.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Based on the distribution of votes to date, I now expect:

    Sunak, 149 nominations
    Boris, 114 nominations
    Mordaunt, 34 nominations

    60 we will not find out.

    Johnson drifting out towards 5 this lunchtime.
    Yep. Bubble popping now, I think. Double digits soon.
    Maybe he seemed a more attractive proposition when he was over the water, but now he’s back in the country, MPs are remembering what he’s like!
    Ha, yes. I think it's been largely a hype operation though. Got him back in the news so I suppose he'll be happy enough. The thing I want to see now is the privileges committee doing a proper job and finding him guilty of lying to parliament and hence goodbye. Ok, there'll no doubt be speeches and columns and books but I won't have to partake of any of them. Happy days.
    It will be wonderful if the wicked clown can't get to 100.

    I suggested this yesterday during peak Boris excitement.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    So looks like Rishi has sealed it. Surely he has to do dull, dull, dull. The Tories' only hope is that everyone forgets about them for a couple of years.
  • The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    So looks like Rishi has sealed it. Surely he has to do dull, dull, dull. The Tories' only hope is that everyone forgets about them for a couple of years.

    It's not going to be dull. There are going to be serious cuts to pay for our gas. Growth will be nonexistent to negative, at least for the first year. And "levelling up" is going to be a distant memory.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    Poor show when you're the actual shits in shit creek.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.

    Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,453
    Nice one Forest.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    So looks like Rishi has sealed it. Surely he has to do dull, dull, dull. The Tories' only hope is that everyone forgets about them for a couple of years.

    A bit of boring government whilst the Labour party does its best to get to under 150 MPs with the drip drip drip
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    dixiedean said:

    Nice one Forest.

    That is how to get the job done.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Very ordinary innings from Hales. Dropped twice and then caught for no more than a run a ball 19.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    dixiedean said:

    Nice one Forest.

    Talking of absolutely shit... Liverpool 22/23 season.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    Totally agree. Spot on.

    The only thing is that there may be a lot of pressure for an election next year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    DavidL said:

    Very ordinary innings from Hales. Dropped twice and then caught for no more than a run a ball 19.

    Good job Emgland bat deep ;-)
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 517
    edited October 22
    So where were we? Ah yes.

    6 July - PM Boris Johnson admits to the Commons Liaison Committee that he met "ex-KGB officer" oligarch banker Alexander Lebedev without any British officials present, when he was foreign secretary

    7 July - PM Boris Johnson announces his resignation

    And now? Well the most amusing paper to read about Johnson's return to Britain in its time of direst need is the London Evening Standard, of course, owned by Alexander's son Evgeny, elevated to the peerage by none other than Johnson.

    It's an open secret that the Tory party is tied up with Russia money. But how exactly that money is being wielded right now is an open question.
  • Two things:

    1. FYI, just looking through Guido's list, the one category of MPs who don't seem to have come out much yet - bar
    a few exceptions - are the Red Wall MPs. I'm of the view Rishi gives them less of a chance to save their seats than BJ but let's see.

    2. Again, looking through the list, there are around 100+ MPs still to come out and voice support, still enough to get at least BJ across the line.

    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part). If Rishi was the nailed on person he is supposed to be, yoh probably would have more momentum. It seems like Rishi is getting his advice from Gavin Williamson as to how to play this.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    When I was a steward, Forest v Liverpool was always the game of the year.

    I've never seen a ground so ridiculously full. People climbing all the way up the floodlights....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.
    I know, it was only Liverpool.....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    Alistair said:

    The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.

    Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
    Tbh, Lula was a terrible candidate, given the endemic corruption of his previous terms. Lula v Bolsonaro is reminiscent of Corbyn against Johnson.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Heathener said:

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    Totally agree. Spot on.

    The only thing is that there may be a lot of pressure for an election next year.
    Given what the next two years look like if he can get things back to low 40s vs high 20s its probably not a dreadful option.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    I'm convinced it is a lack of uncertainty in the back room that is now coming through on the pitch.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Sigh…
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    (And are there a disproportionate number of Forest fans in PB's August number?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    England know this isn't a test match right?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    edited October 22
    DavidL said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
    Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?

    EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    edited October 22

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.
    It's all about the volatility in the bottom half of of the PL. Put together a few wins and draws and you rapidly drag yourself out of the mire. The opposite is also true.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    edited October 22
    mwadams said:

    I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

    In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

    Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

    Not to worry, PB has also settled down to the cricket so that will keep then out of mischief, though not quiet, for anything up to a week.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446
    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

    In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

    Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

    Not to worry, PB has also settled down to the cricket so that will keep then out of mischief, though not quiet, for anything up to a week.
    Bloody rounders , bore you to death
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?

    A bit slow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    If Stokes wasn't bowling so well his place in the team would be under a lot of pressure....he looks totally off the pace with the bat.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Time for Biden to tell the to get fucked tbh. Having the US, France and the UK provide Germany's national defence should entail a cost to the German taxpayer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    edited October 22
    Stokes out for 2 is a major coup for Afghanistan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/60117935
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    2024 is a long way away.

    It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    biggles said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Sigh…
    Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    It's actually rather high - you'd be surprised.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    DavidL said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
    Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?

    EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.
    @Leon, stop hacking into @Malmesbury's account.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    I think that you might be surprised by how many political wonks, in and out of parliament read PB.

    I was talking to my MP the other day, mentioned it. She was a bit startled, then almost guilty, said that she scrolled through. Apparently, the dissection of announced policies - as in "talking points against" is really interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

    In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

    Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

    Not to worry, PB has also settled down to the cricket so that will keep then out of mischief, though not quiet, for anything up to a week.
    It's a question of priorities and what is really important @Carnyx.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    mwadams said:

    What a superb decision of the Forest owners to stand by Steve Cooper.

    Mid-table here we come!

    It’s an excellent result, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.
    It's all about the volatility in the bottom half of of the PL. Put together a few wins and draws and you rapidly drag yourself out of the mire. The opposite is also true.
    Yep Leeds have gone from easy street mid table season to fodder in a few games
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    It feels a tad early for so many to be declaring Sunak’s done it. Johnson would be a disaster, but Tory MPs aren’t known for good decision making. There’s plenty who didn’t like Sunak last time. If he can get to 100, he’s got a very good chance to win with the members.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    mwadams said:

    I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

    In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

    Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

    🤦🏻‍♂️
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    mwadams said:

    I would like to apologize to my friends and colleagues for the accidental use of an emoji on PB.

    In my defence, I had recently been refreshing Twitter to see if NFFC were still beating LFC.

    Having spoken with my family, I will be taking a period away from the site (maybe 5 minutes?) until popular acclaim demands that I come back and get the job done etc.

    We won't change the wallpaper yet then.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Two things:

    1. FYI, just looking through Guido's list, the one category of MPs who don't seem to have come out much yet - bar
    a few exceptions - are the Red Wall MPs. I'm of the view Rishi gives them less of a chance to save their seats than BJ but let's see.

    2. Again, looking through the list, there are around 100+ MPs still to come out and voice support, still enough to get at least BJ across the line.

    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part). If Rishi was the nailed on person he is supposed to be, yoh probably would have more momentum. It seems like Rishi is getting his advice from Gavin Williamson as to how to play this.

    I struggle with the idea that Boris is key to the Red Wall given how badly he was polling in it before his defenestration.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Dyed, agreed. Leeds had a pretty good start but their form has fallen off a lot.

    While Manchester United got a lot of attention for a shit start they've bounced back nicely, whereas Liverpool have been iffy all season.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    DavidL said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
    Maybe they’ve made a new assessment of the threat posed by the Russian armed forces and concluded that the Russian tanks would struggle to even reach the German border?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    DavidL said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
    Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?

    EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.
    @Leon, stop hacking into @Malmesbury's account.
    I just like to follow through ideas.

    For example, the other day, people were all fired up for nationalising the evil natural gas profiteers. I was entirely up for this. Let's nationalise the entire Arabian peninsular again. We would need a company to do the actual oil and gas stuff, though.

    Empire Petroleum?
    UK Petroleum??
    .....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    2024 is a long way away.

    It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.
    If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    DavidL said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
    Maybe they’ve made a new assessment of the threat posed by the Russian armed forces and concluded that the Russian tanks would struggle to even reach the German border?

    And then complain when Eastern Europe makes a deal with the US and UK over defence?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Andy_JS said:

    Stokes out for 2 is a major coup for Afghanistan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/60117935

    It sounds ridiculous to say it but he has not demonstrated his right to be in this team recently.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    Dura_Ace said:

    biggles said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Sigh…
    Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
    Probably won't cut much Senf in the Bundeskanzleramt, but stopping the PB Germanophobes going off on one for the umpteenth time?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    Dura_Ace said:

    biggles said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Sigh…
    Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
    Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    2024 is a long way away.

    It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.
    If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue
    This narrative that the Tories are guaranteed to lose is brave, I think. Long way to go.
  • I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    2024 is a long way away.

    It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.
    If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue
    In recent times, governing parties have always run with the line that they are expecting to be re-elected with a majority, that their private polling tells them that there will be a surprise on the upside, that the few early returns are either too early to show a pattern, or indicate the veracity of these earlier statements until finally at about 4am they are compelled to admit that the jig is up.

    What if there is another way to play it that doesn't make the leadership look like a busted flush just because their hand was on the tiller when the ship sank?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Mr. Dyed, agreed. Leeds had a pretty good start but their form has fallen off a lot.

    While Manchester United got a lot of attention for a shit start they've bounced back nicely, whereas Liverpool have been iffy all season.

    Marsch is a very poor manager, they probably have the players to stay up if they sort out the defensive mess and buy someone to replace Bamford who is completely shot
    Liverpool wont make the CL, Man Utd.... lets see
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 22

    Mr. Dyed, agreed. Leeds had a pretty good start but their form has fallen off a lot.

    While Manchester United got a lot of attention for a shit start they've bounced back nicely, whereas Liverpool have been iffy all season.

    I watch most Man U games and although the results have improved the quality of the football has been moderate to poor. The first time they looked like a team who can boss the game was against Spurs this week. And even then the finishing was disappointing. Rashford really should have had a hat trick.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    edited October 22

    Dura_Ace said:

    biggles said:

    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816

    Sigh…
    Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
    Probably won't cut much Senf in the Bundeskanzleramt, but stopping the PB Germanophobes going off on one for the umpteenth time?
    I think the actual change in German attitudes that needs to happen most is more fundamental and about dropping the pacifist post-WW2 nonsense - having an outward looking defence capability is a part of that. Same with Japan. It was all 70 years ago and for the sake of their own sense of pride and self esteem both countries need to move on.

    No modern German should ever give their role in the Second World War a second thought - I think many still do, sadly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    England making a right jazz of this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,453

    I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

    Strugglingtomakehalfwayology surely.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

    No NFFC fan would ever diss Liverpool. Even in unexpected victory.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

    Come off it. AV ok, Sindy fine, but topology's a bit of a stretch isn't it?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

    Come off it. AV ok, Sindy fine, but topology's a bit of a stretch isn't it?
    TSE just wants an excuse to buy loads of donuts "for use as examples".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
    Napoleon, of course, lasted 100 days and then suffered a catastrophic defeat at Waterloo.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
    I wonder if we'll get a rerun of "And I have concluded that person cannot be me" with obligatory tears from Nads.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    edited October 22
    biggles said:

    If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.

    Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.

    2024 is a long way away.

    It could still be a narrow defeat, with a set up for a swift comeback.
    If it is Sunak and he minimises the damage - obviously still loses - think he could probably build a strong opposition off the back of it if he is allowed to continue
    This narrative that the Tories are guaranteed to lose is brave, I think. Long way to go.
    True. But looking back at 1992 (which would be a comparable situation) the Tory polling nadir (which was 2 years out) never saw an average below 30% and they had a solid period of competence and the much derided, but real, green shoots of recovery, along with a Labour leadership that was still widely mocked.

    Yes, the Tories are starting from a stronger position in terms of number of seats, but all the other fundamentals look worse.

    ETA: I should say, comparative competence. I don't want to overstate it.

    Most of what people remember is from Black Wednesday onwards, which leads to 1997.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    'Apparently'

    A source would be good, even an unreliable one.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 637
    edited October 22

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    'Apparently'

    A source would be good, even an unreliable one.
    BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.

    Hrm - on the BBC live news feed he says :

    "Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, meaning he could be on the ballot on Monday if he chooses to be."

    But on twitter he says :

    "NEW: I’m told Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers and so could be on the ballot if he chooses to be"

    Which is slightly different.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    I agree with Raab.

    The former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab claims Boris Johnson faces a “fundamental hurdle” in his return to frontline politics while the partygate probe by the Privileges Committee looms over him.

    Raab, who is a prominent backer of Rishi Sunak, said the party “cannot go backwards,” adding: “We’d be back in the sort of Groundhog Day of partygate. We must get the country, the government moving forward.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-rishi-sunak-penny-mordaunt-tory-leadership-general-election-follow-live-rvr79nm20

    The party cannot go backwards.

    Therefore I'm backing Rishi Sunak.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited October 22
    Chris Mason

    Political editor

    Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, meaning he could be on the ballot on Monday if he chooses to be.

    The morons are going to do it aren't they.....surely the only way to stop him now is all in on Sunak so he gets 250 nominations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ohnotnow said:

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    'Apparently'

    A source would be good, even an unreliable one.
    BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.
    Thanks. Strange Guido still only has Johnson at 71, including 16 anonymous backers.
  • He's going to say he has the numbers but has chosen not to run.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    ohnotnow said:

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    'Apparently'

    A source would be good, even an unreliable one.
    BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.
    Thanks. Strange Guido still only has Johnson at 71, including 16 anonymous backers.
    Very strange, considering the BBC's tally, updated only three quarters of an hour ago, shows only 49.

    Does Mason mean someone is claiming this, or what?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
    More like Charles Edward Stuart at Glenfinnan (from an island earlier, too: Eriskay).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    Looks to be true. The "100" market says it is.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    How about Boris, scenting too many obstacles, comes out in favour of...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
    It is very, very obvious that the 1922 Committee wanted a quick result, preferably without going to the membership, and (at least once Hunt declined) that was very, very obviously meant to favour Sunak.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:



    3. Related to that, there does seem a coordinated campaign to have a Rishi coronation (and this site is definitely playing its part).

    This is almost in the Casino Royale conspiracy theory.

    Political Betting is a great site but let's not over-egg its influence on a leadership election involving, erm, Conservative MPs and members.

    The number of voting members who follow this site, let alone pay attention to the ramblings of us folk, is likely miniscule. And the number of Conservative MPs who sit up and pay attention to our witterings even fewer.
    Nevertheless there is, I believe a 'plot' to crown Rishi on Monday, as I suggested yesterday, and so far its panning out accordingly - either Johnson doesn't get to the 100 or he gets there but mysteriously doesn't run. If he runs, he blows up the party, and even then I don't think his win is guaranteed given the opposition he will face from the party hierarchy. He thought he'd get off the plane today and be welcomed like Napoleon off the ship from Elba, but it isn't panning out like that at all....
    I wonder if we'll get a rerun of "And I have concluded that person cannot be me" with obligatory tears from Nads.
    Very likely.

    It's a better long term bet for Johnson anyway. If the Privileges Committee does one on him he can resign his seat (rather than face a recall) elevate a safe-seat friend to the Lords (summer resignation honours) and stand for LOtO after the GE24 defeat. If they let him off, same plan really - Uxbridge looks a bit precarious at the next GE.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    Chris said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.

    Not sure if that’s a bluff

    'Apparently'

    A source would be good, even an unreliable one.
    BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.
    Thanks. Strange Guido still only has Johnson at 71, including 16 anonymous backers.
    Very strange, considering the BBC's tally, updated only three quarters of an hour ago, shows only 49.

    Does Mason mean someone is claiming this, or what?
    Ah - attributed to "campaign source". Well ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.

    If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.

    Even Leicester could thrash the Forest...

    And topology? Shape up!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    One nil to the famous club
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.

    Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    A campaign source ! Really . This looks like an attempt to frighten off Sunak .
  • TresTres Posts: 1,362
    Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Alistair said:

    The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.

    Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
    It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    NEW: @ToryReformGroup survey finds 86% of centrist Tory members do NOT want Boris back.

    Chair @floetry "We have seen that the party’s centrist members have been ‘quiet quitting’ for years... it's clear the return of Johnson would finally end the relationship for many."

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1583821403190886402
This discussion has been closed.