I always thought that Penny Mourdant was asked to stand to try and stop Boirs from reaching 100. Now that he appears to have done it he will not back down and will insist on a members vote. He may trail MPs by 200-100 but will probably win the racist OAP (members) vote.
Step forward PM BJ2. For a few months until he is forced to resign and we are all back where we started.
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
Probably won't cut much Senf in the Bundeskanzleramt, but stopping the PB Germanophobes going off on one for the umpteenth time?
I think the actual change in German attitudes that needs to happen most is more fundamental and about dropping the pacifist post-WW2 nonsense - having an outward looking defence capability is a part of that. Same with Japan. It was all 70 years ago and for the sake of their own sense of pride and self esteem both countries need to move on.
No modern German should ever give their role in the Second World War a second thought - I think many still do, sadly.
The real issue here is that a large chunk of Eastern Europe thinks that Germany would let them swing for more washing machine sales.
On reason they are very keen on Ukraine in the EU is that their collective voice will be much louder.
NEW: @ToryReformGroup survey finds 86% of centrist Tory members do NOT want Boris back.
Chair @floetry "We have seen that the party’s centrist members have been ‘quiet quitting’ for years... it's clear the return of Johnson would finally end the relationship for many."
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.
If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.
Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.
Starmer had a 9% lead over Sunak as preferred PM with Yougov yesterday.
On the new boundaries that would be closer to a Cameron 2010 result for Starmer than Blair 1997.
Brown of course elected by Labour MPs by coronation in 2007 much as Sunak would now be elected by Conservative MPs by coronation
O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Nah, Brexit was all about parliamentary sovereignty, if a party campaign on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the single market and they win a majority then that is the will of the people.
Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
His arithmetic and grammar aren't up to much either: "Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, a campaign source tells me ... This is less than the number of publicly declared backers for Johnson, which stand [sic] at 49"
Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.
52/48 is overwhelming isn't it?
Honestly surprised it was as close as that. It did not feel like that watching it, especially in the second half.
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
The Handelsblatt story is slightly more nuanced: the budget for armaments purchases has remained the same, but because of cost of replacement of munitions and inflation, this means that deliveries of new platforms - particularly naval and air force - will need to be slower to fit within allocated costs.
FPT: Some posters were talking about SLAB numbers in the latest Yougov. As far as I can see the latest Scotland-only yougov poll was from 30th September - 4th October.
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.
A reasonably convincing prediction but we are in unstable times. I can convince myself of anything from a big Labour win to a moderate Tory win and hung parliaments in between. Your last point about lack of enthusiasm for Labour is important. A Boris return is a certain disaster for the country and then for the Tories, it even has a a built in markets crisis from day one. If a Sunak government can convince enough electors that Labour would actually be riskier economically then he might win next election.
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Has been had nearly as bad as all the moronic Tory MPs publicly backing Boris.....and then some wally at the BBC has hit the push breaking news notification!
O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
The Americans will adopt an auto loader in a tank the day after Hell freezes.
The Abrams X is a piece of junk - the track damn near vibrates off the rollers in some videos.
The next generation of tanks will probably be incremental until full hybrid power trains are brought into the mix. There’s some interesting work being done on multiple driven wheels per track, rather than a single sprocket wheel.
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.
The Handelsblatt story is slightly more nuanced: the budget for armaments purchases has remained the same, but because of cost of replacement of munitions and inflation, this means that deliveries of new platforms - particularly naval and air force - will need to be slower to fit within allocated costs.
I suspect that the Germans are really having trouble not pulling their hair out about the strength of the Euro and there is more than a hint of a dig about the problems that kit being priced in dollars is causing. They did not build one of the great export sectors on the back of a weak currency. They used a hard currency to bear down on costs and push productivity onwards and upwards. They seem increasingly unhappy to me.
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
Time for Biden to tell the to get fucked tbh. Having the US, France and the UK provide Germany's national defence should entail a cost to the German taxpayer.
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
The funniest thing is that Johnson's campaign thinks some wavering Tory MPs are so naive they can be tipped to Johnson's camp by this.
On the flip side, if Johnson now ends up with 90 nominations how stupid is he going to look?
The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020
You can see there are polls correctly and/or incorrectly omitted from the English version. The English page was locked to edits as a result.
I'm none the wiser. Why don't you just spell out for me what you say is going on - pro-Bolsonaro polls being suppressed or fake polls being added?
Pro-Bolsonaro polls being omitted from the English version, that should be included.
There may be some concerns over methodology, but they still happened. They're also more helpful for tracking the recent change.
For example, Futura have followed up their 0.4% lead for Lula with a poll showing 1% lead for Bolsonaro. One appears in the English language version and the other doesn't.
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.
A reasonably convincing prediction but we are in unstable times. I can convince myself of anything from a big Labour win to a moderate Tory win and hung parliaments in between. Your last point about lack of enthusiasm for Labour is important. A Boris return is a certain disaster for the country and then for the Tories, it even has a a built in markets crisis from day one. If a Sunak government can convince enough electors that Labour would actually be riskier economically then he might win next election.
On the last couple of polls the Tories get Zero seats according to Baxter calculation. Even South Holland where no-one at all ever votes Labour There was one a few days ago which saved South Holland alone, leaving John Hayes looking a little isolated. The village of Algarkirk however is in Boston constituency which fell to the reds a week or two back. This is eastern Europe 1945 time.
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
The funniest thing is that Johnson's campaign thinks some wavering Tory MPs are so naive they can be tipped to Johnson's camp by this.
On the flip side, if Johnson now ends up with 90 nominations how stupid is he going to look?
Should that happen after all this bluster and confidence in flying home I don't think I'd be able to stop laughing until after Rishi has been to see HM The King.
“From skies over Missouri to above the Pacific Ocean, commercial airline pilots have recently captured videos that depict unidentified aerial phenomena across the U.S.
@GadiNBC reports on the possible otherworldly sightings.”
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.
And other outlets tbf.
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.
"Scepticism on real extent of Johnson's support Chris Mason
Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.
"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.
Why?
Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy."
What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
Timing it for the Sunday newspapers perhaps?
Or waiting for the Johnson “move”
If I were Rishi, I’d be tempted to say sod it and say I’m not running if Johnson said he’ll enter. But then no idea what happens then - I guess the party would be left with choice of Penny or coalescing around Boris
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Happening as we speak
According to a Blair Institute poll last week, just 7% of Conservative voters, 37% of Labour voters and 47% of LD voters want to rejoin the full EU.
Even rejoining the single market only gets a majority amongst LD voters of the GB wide parties
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.
And other outlets tbf.
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.
What happens is every journo is so desperate to be the one with the breaking news they go with things they shouldn't without more checking....they blurt it out on twitter & within seconds every other media outlet just repeats the claim because a blue checkmark is the source.
Mrs P. and I having a quiet coffee in the rather deserted Waitrose cafe this morning when we overheard the two 20-something women behind the serving counter discussing politics:
- "...after 12 years of the Conservatives it time they pissed off and let someone else have a go."
- "Yeah, quite agree..."
Never heard politics being discussed in such a situation before. Sea change.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Happening as we speak
According to a Blair Institute poll last week, just 7% of Conservative voters, 37% of Labour voters and 47% of LD voters want to rejoin the full EU.
Even rejoining the single market only gets a majority amongst LD voters of the GB wide parties
What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
Timing it for the Sunday newspapers perhaps?
Or waiting for the Johnson “move”
If I were Rishi, I’d be tempted to say sod it and say I’m not running if Johnson said he’ll enter. But then no idea what happens then - I guess the party would be left with choice of Penny or coalescing around Boris
Of course the media are going to push the Johnson narrative. They love a crisis. They thrive on a crisis. They know Johnson would give them weeks of standing in Downing Street as the next drama plays out.
David Henig 🇺🇦 @DavidHenigUK · 4h Replying to @DavidHenigUK And we're expected to have respect for the people who wanted to keep a liar in office, then switched to supporting a PM so bad she broke records for unpopularity in her short time in office, and now want to go back to the liar?
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.
And other outlets tbf.
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.
Just a minor slip. So long as it doesn't become the norm (as it kind of was with Laura). I also think he's good.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
You’re missing the point
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Nah, Brexit was all about parliamentary sovereignty, if a party campaign on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the single market and they win a majority then that is the will of the people.
Perhaps surprising to some but I would agree with that. Obviously I always wanted us to be in EFTA/EEA anyway. My objection to the EU was and is that it can pass laws over which our Parliament has no say and which can be decided and enforced without our consent. That is not the case for the EFTA members of the EEA where the countries always have a choice on whether to accept new rules without having to undertake the nuclear option of leaving the organisation as a whole.
For that reason it is far more akin to a normal set of trade agreements or membership of NATO. That means it does not have constitutional implications and so I have no issue with a party campaigning for it and receiving a mandate via a GE. Rejoining the EU with QMV and ECJ decisions does have severe constitutional implications and as such would, for me, need another referendum.
Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2 50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2 5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.
The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2 50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2 5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
Comments
Step forward PM BJ2. For a few months until he is forced to resign and we are all back where we started.
UK - the original banana monarchy.
Still amuses me that the most on topic thread in the history of PB was about topology.
On reason they are very keen on Ukraine in the EU is that their collective voice will be much louder.
On the new boundaries that would be closer to a Cameron 2010 result for Starmer than Blair 1997.
Brown of course elected by Labour MPs by coronation in 2007 much as Sunak would now be elected by Conservative MPs by coronation
https://www.tanknology.co.uk/post/tanks-of-2022-old-dogs-new-tricks
Rishi will win
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_eleição_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno
You can see there are polls correctly and/or incorrectly omitted from the English version. The English page was locked to edits as a result.
Nice post but, and I know I'll never change you, it would have had more impact with the 'quote' of my post, just saying.
The Abrams X is a piece of junk - the track damn near vibrates off the rollers in some videos.
The next generation of tanks will probably be incremental until full hybrid power trains are brought into the mix. There’s some interesting work being done on multiple driven wheels per track, rather than a single sprocket wheel.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
@MattChorley
·
1h
% of the public declarations so far:
Sunak 60%
Johnson 28%
Mordaunt 12%
So of the 142 left to declare, Johnson needs 35% of them to back him *just* to get on the ballot
Haaland ends his 1-match goal drought
I reckon it's the prelude to a withdrawal.
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
·
9s
A Johnson claim not worth the paper it's not written on.
His total declarations is 22 higher than the names on Guido' speadsheet.
On the flip side, if Johnson now ends up with 90 nominations how stupid is he going to look?
There may be some concerns over methodology, but they still happened. They're also more helpful for tracking the recent change.
For example, Futura have followed up their 0.4% lead for Lula with a poll showing 1% lead for Bolsonaro. One appears in the English language version and the other doesn't.
It is inconceivable for Johnson to go ahead and lead the party with a huge number of his MPs opposing his leadership.
We've been through all this with Liz Truss.
And he now needs 45 more.
Rishi has today added 20 named MPs.
https://twitter.com/todayshow/status/1583429043785170944?s=46&t=rC_Ya7B1FhoOPB6oGPjBvg
“From skies over Missouri to above the Pacific Ocean, commercial airline pilots have recently captured videos that depict unidentified aerial phenomena across the U.S.
@GadiNBC reports on the possible otherworldly sightings.”
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.
Chris Mason
Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.
"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.
Why?
Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63338261
If I were Rishi, I’d be tempted to say sod it and say I’m not running if Johnson said he’ll enter. But then no idea what happens then - I guess the party would be left with choice of Penny or coalescing around Boris
Even rejoining the single market only gets a majority amongst LD voters of the GB wide parties
https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union
Mrs P. and I having a quiet coffee in the rather deserted Waitrose cafe this morning when we overheard the two 20-something women behind the serving counter discussing politics:
- "...after 12 years of the Conservatives it time they pissed off and let someone else have a go."
- "Yeah, quite agree..."
Never heard politics being discussed in such a situation before. Sea change.
Of duty, I mean, not nature.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022
It is beyond satire that the members are about to ask him to have another go.
Just weeks before the committee meets to effectively decide on impeachment proceedings.
The Tory party is utterly broken as the "natural party of government" this weekend.
So who are your 100 backers?
“You wouldn’t know them, they go to another school”
I have long since given up on UK news media
David Henig 🇺🇦
@DavidHenigUK
·
4h
Replying to
@DavidHenigUK
And we're expected to have respect for the people who wanted to keep a liar in office, then switched to supporting a PM so bad she broke records for unpopularity in her short time in office, and now want to go back to the liar?
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1583757550280794112
For that reason it is far more akin to a normal set of trade agreements or membership of NATO. That means it does not have constitutional implications and so I have no issue with a party campaigning for it and receiving a mandate via a GE. Rejoining the EU with QMV and ECJ decisions does have severe constitutional implications and as such would, for me, need another referendum.
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2
50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2
5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/s6ccng5vvk/Internal_ConMembers_Oct2022_w.pdf
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/plymouth-man-legged-home-after-7726432
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PRufWhh2YAoxPUJEXeVaEOe7rcT1IINOXijeLI6o9Cc/htmlview?pru=AAABhCQ0q-E*W8KUIU5NAPSORuCrQidxDA#
https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1583791486348713984?t=BIpa2FWMXQ3SdCkOwEAx8g&s=19
Election workers quiting in fear of their life.