Rishi now odds on for the PM job – politicalbetting.com
Rishi now odds on for the PM job – politicalbetting.com
What a day and, as seemed likely overnight, Truss decided to call it a day and now we have another CON leadership contest with it all being sorted this month.
Comments
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Third time lucky?
ETA: For me not being pipped to first. Could also be for Rishi though, if he loses out this time
And, more obviously, third time lucky for the Tory Party perhaps, if they pick someone sensible this time.0 -
First. Like Sunak
Edit: oops - bad omen for Rishi!4 -
FPT:
I have no idea how many Johnson supporters there are on the 1922 committee but if a majority want to block him they are free to interpret the word 'consequently' that way.Richard_Tyndall said:
Much as i would like to agree with you I think this interpretation is wrong. If the idea was they could not stand in future elections I would have thought they would have used the word 'subsequent'. Consequent seems to me to refer only to the immediate election after resignation.Benpointer said:Johnson shouldn't be allowed to stand:
From the Conservative Party Constitution Schedule 2 page 18.
https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
"RULES FOR THE ELECTION OF THE LEADER
1 The Leader shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members.
2 A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent Leadership election."
Definition of 'consequent':
adjective
1. following as a result or effect.
This leadership election follows as a clear effect of Johnson's resignation.
You're welcome.
But fpor the sake of the country I hope you are right in your interpretation.
Schedule 2 para 3.
"Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board."
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Do we know if Graeme Brady is out of committee meeting yet?0
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FPT
Boris? Leader again? Okay.
Well, if Micky Fab thinks it's a good idea, maybe it is.0 -
I fear that it will be Johnson - the second time as an even greater farce than the first.0
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I fear it is Boris 2: This Time it's Personal.1
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Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates1 -
The entertainment would be the damning report on Boris being published immediately - and his lasting less time than Liz Truss....LostPassword said:I fear that it will be Johnson - the second time as an even greater farce than the first.
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Brady was the very first resignation from Cameron's shadow cabinet. Maybe everything goes back to that moment?! #strangedays0
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With a threshold of 100 I don't think Boris gets there. Rishi and Penny in the final 2, then Penny for the win.4
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"5:32pm
'Campaign is go!'
One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/#update-20221020-17320 -
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates1 -
On-line voting??!!!
What could possibly go wrong......?1 -
100 nomination threshold
If you get three candidates, rather than the lowest simply going out, you vote again
Unless the gap is less than 5 MPs, the second candidate is required to drop out.
What? They believe in FPTP, and have used the supplementary vote as well.0 -
- Brady confirms that candidates need support of at least 100 MPs to stand for Tory leader
- Berry confirms there will be online vote of the Conservative membership that wraps up end of next week https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1583134482793893889/photo/10 -
Boris first PM since Churchill under 2 monarchs.0
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I fear Chrishti isn't going to make it in, again7
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It's a terrible bloody idea.Peter_the_Punter said:On-line voting??!!!
Waht could possibly go wrong......?
Fingers crossed this is a lark, and the idea is they are confident it will be a coronation, but can claim that, had MPs not been unified, there would have been a member vote.0 -
I think you'll find that was Liz Truss.Ishmael_Z said:Boris first PM since Churchill under 2 monarchs.
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So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
So does Johnson have 100 MPs to support him?0
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If only one candidate gets over 100 MP votes then they automatically become PM on Monday.1
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ничего такогоPeter_the_Punter said:On-line voting??!!!
What could possibly go wrong......?0 -
Big miss there IshIshmael_Z said:Boris first PM since Churchill under 2 monarchs.
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Boris Johnson received 114 MP votes in the first round of the 2019 leadership election and there are more MPs this time around. I think it's possible.TimS said:With a threshold of 100 I don't think Boris gets there. Rishi and Penny in the final 2, then Penny for the win.
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Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reasonBenpointer said:
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
Apparently Thatcher, Churchill and Disraeli are standing.0
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One big change that could influence things:
Once down to Final 2, there won't be time for an opinion poll of members to be done before most members vote.
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I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reasonBenpointer said:
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
You can probably double count a number of them for their multiple personalitiesBenpointer said:So does Johnson have 100 MPs to support him?
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Liz will lose her password?Peter_the_Punter said:On-line voting??!!!
What could possibly go wrong......?1 -
I don't think I have seen a 5 thread day on PB before.3
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If two do and the runner up drops out the same appliesScott_xP said:If only one candidate gets over 100 MP votes then they automatically become PM on Monday.
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American Twitter is full of takes that Liz’s sudden ouster proves that UK democracy works, unlike America’s.
I think they should wait and see what happens with Boris first.1 -
I think it could be close. How many wanted him all along (given that was most of Truss's pitch, call it 30-50), and how many regret his going, and how many think since they are losing anyway might as well let him own it?Benpointer said:So does Johnson have 100 MPs to support him?
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I was going to say why couldn't they have had an online vote last time. But at least the Queen was spared this at the end of her reign.0
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So last time, the final MP round ended up:
Rishi 137
Liz 113
Penny 105
Presumably Rishi and Penny get the nomimations, how do Liz's backers split? A lot of them were BoRIsWOzRobbED, but enough?1 -
Vote Kwasi.2
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Not a take I would have expected. It does show our MPs retain some power.Gardenwalker said:American Twitter is full of takes that Liz’s sudden ouster proves that UK democracy works, unlike America’s.
I think they should wait and see what happens with Boris first.0 -
Anyhoo, Johnson’s drifted a bit on that1
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Hilarious if no one gets 100, like those Brexit votes where no option passed.4
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🚨SNAP POLL🚨
Five in six say Liz Truss was right to resign today
Right 84%
Wrong 10%
Don't know 6% https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1583136890404102144/photo/11 -
Has anything much happened between times?LostPassword said:
Boris Johnson received 114 MP votes in the first round of the 2019 leadership election and there are more MPs this time around. I think it's possible.TimS said:With a threshold of 100 I don't think Boris gets there. Rishi and Penny in the final 2, then Penny for the win.
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Doubt it. Looks good for Sunak to me. Otherwise Mordaunt. No other realistic outcomes imo.Benpointer said:So does Johnson have 100 MPs to support him?
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https://twitter.com/elenicourea/status/1583134715095420929
Eleni Courea
@elenicourea
·
8m
Graham Brady + Jake Berry joint statement
— Nominations to be Tory leader close 2pm Monday — need 100 nominations
— Tory members get online vote
— Contest concludes next Friday 28th
— There will be one broadcast event so the public can hear from the final two
With members getting a vote - it's going to be Bozo unless less than 100 MPs nominate him.0 -
The “fuck it let’s roll the dice, he does have something” factor.kle4 said:
I think it could be close. How many wanted him all along (given that was most of Truss's pitch, call it 30-50), and how many regret his going, and how many think since they are losing anyway might as well let him own it?Benpointer said:So does Johnson have 100 MPs to support him?
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Liz has to stay on?kle4 said:Hilarious if no one gets 100, like those Brexit votes where no option passed.
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Suella Braverman, Wednesday:
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”3 -
AhBenpointer said:
Big miss there IshIshmael_Z said:Boris first PM since Churchill under 2 monarchs.
What I meant to post was, first since Churchill to have weekly audiences with 2 different monarchs, then I obviously overruled my subconscious which knew why the shortened version didn't work.1 -
Rob Ford @robfordmancs
So in theory could be three candidates come Monday. Who can get to 100 that quickly?
Rishi (definitely)
Penny (maybe)
Party's right wing will have to decide if they want to Bring Back Boris or back someone else (Badenoch? Braverman?) They can't do both.
That is a good point re Boris. The nutjob vote may be split, and I imagine the sane vote will go overwhelmingly to Rishi this time.
Fingers crossed...0 -
The thought of Johnson coming back again, it is truly horrifying. It is like the scene at the end of Fatal Attraction0
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I hate everything about her, but non-point.Scott_xP said:Suella Braverman, Wednesday:
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”0 -
The online vote of the venerables will not take place imo.1
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As I'm sure @HYUFD would tell you if he was around, Johnson won the largest election victory for the Tories since 1987. Given they are 30pp behind right now I could see why that might sway a few people. I imagine loads of party members will be bending their MPs ears over the weekend on why they should bring Boris back too.Benpointer said:
Has anything much happened between times?LostPassword said:
Boris Johnson received 114 MP votes in the first round of the 2019 leadership election and there are more MPs this time around. I think it's possible.TimS said:With a threshold of 100 I don't think Boris gets there. Rishi and Penny in the final 2, then Penny for the win.
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The Tories could ask the whole House of Commons to cast meaningful votes to advise them.kle4 said:Hilarious if no one gets 100, like those Brexit votes where no option passed.
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more like AlienNigel_Foremain said:The thought of Johnson coming back again, it is truly horrifying. It is like the scene at the end of Fatal Attraction
The only safe option is to nuke it from space...0 -
If Suella Braverman is the answer, what is the question?Scott_xP said:Suella Braverman, Wednesday:
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”
Presumably it's "do you want to live in a quasi-fascist, police state?"2 -
She didn't seem to have a problem with The Clown breaking the code eitherScott_xP said:Suella Braverman, Wednesday:
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”1 -
Morduant and Sunak get to 270 between them and agree the one behind drops out at 1.55pm Monday in return for FO2
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Sympathies. Difficult for me to fully comprehend what you're feeling as I of course never make mistakes. ;-)Ishmael_Z said:
AhBenpointer said:
Big miss there IshIshmael_Z said:Boris first PM since Churchill under 2 monarchs.
What I meant to post was, first since Churchill to have weekly audiences with 2 different monarchs, then I obviously overruled my subconscious which knew why the shortened version didn't work.1 -
Grant Shapps will support Boris, so add a dozen to his total.6
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Sunak, then, since that is Brownian.Jonathan said:
So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
Perhaps people who want to spike Boris should encourage Kemi Badenoch to stand.Richard_Nabavi said:
Rob Ford @robfordmancs
So in theory could be three candidates come Monday. Who can get to 100 that quickly?
Rishi (definitely)
Penny (maybe)
Party's right wing will have to decide if they want to Bring Back Boris or back someone else (Badenoch? Braverman?) They can't do both.
That is a good point re Boris. The nutjob vote may be split, and I imagine the sane vote will go overwhelmingly to Rishi this time.
Fingers crossed...0 -
Don't say that. Too many things all at once for @Leon to soil himself over.Scott_xP said:
more like AlienNigel_Foremain said:The thought of Johnson coming back again, it is truly horrifying. It is like the scene at the end of Fatal Attraction
The only safe option is to nuke it from space...1 -
Not being a lefty and being underwhelmed by both of them, I wonder which one Labour fear more. My instinct is they have so much ammunition to use against Sunak that they would prefer him. But is that right?Andy_JS said:"5:32pm
'Campaign is go!'
One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/#update-20221020-17321 -
All Green?Gardenwalker said:Grant Shapps will support Boris, so add a dozen to his total.
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It seems to boil down to whether more than 100 of Truss's 113 backers are certifiably insane. Who knows? But if forced to decide I would guess not.Stuartinromford said:So last time, the final MP round ended up:
Rishi 137
Liz 113
Penny 105
Presumably Rishi and Penny get the nomimations, how do Liz's backers split? A lot of them were BoRIsWOzRobbED, but enough?0 -
Great stat on BBC's PM. The last Cons leadership contest lasted longer than Truss was PM.6
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Yes, that might do it.williamglenn said:
Perhaps people who want to spike Boris should encourage Kemi Badenoch to stand.Richard_Nabavi said:
Rob Ford @robfordmancs
So in theory could be three candidates come Monday. Who can get to 100 that quickly?
Rishi (definitely)
Penny (maybe)
Party's right wing will have to decide if they want to Bring Back Boris or back someone else (Badenoch? Braverman?) They can't do both.
That is a good point re Boris. The nutjob vote may be split, and I imagine the sane vote will go overwhelmingly to Rishi this time.
Fingers crossed...0 -
That racism detector bloke will be along about the slur against Brown chaps.Driver said:
Sunak, then, since that is Brownian.Jonathan said:
So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
Monday afternoon - MPs' hustings and then the MP vote in the evening0
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The part of me that loves to watch the world burn would enjoy the (probably 5-20% probability) scenario of Boris coming back, seeming to trail through the election campaign, but then it being his face at 10pm on the night when the exit poll comes out.
Almost worth it to watch Twitter explode. It would be like 2015 x 100.0 -
I think it is a certainty that he has the credentials to be Boris Johnson's CoEJonathan said:Vote Kwasi.
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Made a joke yesterday that some will claim all this was orchestrated by Sunak.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.
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I tend to agree except in one case. The nightmare/total chaos scenario is Boris scrapes past 100 nominations and gets into second place with Rishi getting 215+ in the final indicative ballot and Boris only just getting over 130. I think Boris would have no problem taking it to the members and beating Rishi.kinabalu said:The online vote of the venerables will not take place imo.
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...and so will end his glorious Cabinet career.Gardenwalker said:Grant Shapps will support Boris, so add a dozen to his total.
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Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.LostPassword said:
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reasonBenpointer said:
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates0 -
The members need to realise that MPs are not there to do their bidding. Selecting a Prime minister who will not command a majority in Parliament isn't going to work. How many Tory MPs have no confidenced Johnson or called for him to resign?2
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What happened to Finland btw?
(The rumour not the country - calm down!)4 -
Well we knew it was not really about the breach. And hasn't she already suffered enough?Scott_xP said:Suella Braverman, Wednesday:
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”1 -
No, he will back Sunak in return for keeping his postGardenwalker said:Grant Shapps will support Boris, so add a dozen to his total.
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Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.LostPassword said:
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.LostPassword said:
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reasonBenpointer said:
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.IanB2 said:Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
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Aw f***. I do hope not. At least the Japanese only tried the Kamikaze once.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it is a certainty that he has the credentials to be Boris Johnson's CoEJonathan said:Vote Kwasi.
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I think the 20 years thing might be about right. Add another 10 to that if the Clown makes a come backkle4 said:Made a joke yesterday that some will claim all this was orchestrated by Sunak.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.0
