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Rishi now odds on for the PM job – politicalbetting.com

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  • I'm voting for the Tory leadership candidate who will pass a law banning Mike Smithson from going on holiday.

    "OGH has taught you well. You have controlled your fear. Now, release your anger. Only your hatred can destroy me!"
  • Seems to me, basic problem with Rishi Sunak in this contest, is that he is the ONE candidate that was rejected by Tory members (many in more senses than one).

    No other potential candidate has that handicap.

    I know that polling shows considerable buyers remorse from the Pick-Your-Own-Lemon brigade. BUT that was testing Sunak versus Truss rematch - which clearly ain't happening.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I'm resigned to Boris Johnson returning as PM next week.

    Is there a PMQs next week?

    Might need to order a supersized bucket of popcorn.
    Starmer must be exhausted. Every time he preps for PMQs for one of them another one pops up and takes their place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Seems to me, basic problem with Rishi Sunak in this contest, is that he is the ONE candidate that was rejected by Tory members (many in more senses than one).

    No other potential candidate has that handicap.

    I know that polling shows considerable buyers remorse from the Pick-Your-Own-Lemon brigade. BUT that was testing Sunak versus Truss rematch - which clearly ain't happening.

    But the membership chose Truss, so who cares what they thought.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.

    However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
    The country is still running. Taxes being paid and spent. Schools are open. NHS at the point of collapse as usual. Army training UKR soldiers.
    The bigger sin was the endless naval gazing first leadership campaign.

    Edit: typo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    eek said:

    I'm voting for the Tory leadership candidate who will pass a law banning Mike Smithson from going on holiday.

    The fact Mike is going on holiday means maximum entertainment is guaranteed

    Monday Sunak and Bozo get the nominations
    Monday MP vote shows Sunak with 200 votes, Bozo 100-140
    Tuesday membership polling shows Bozo winning
    Friday members vote for Bozo

    Friday / Saturday 40+ Tory MPs cross the floor
    Feck it. WE NEED A GENERAL ELECTION.
  • Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?

    What flaws of Johnson's aren't already exposed?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    There are more than 100 Tory MPs who, to be blunt, are fucking idiots, and thus susceptible to the idea that they should put Johnson on the ballot paper. He will probably also attract a few midwit MPs who reckon they can get jobs out of it - Johnson will stomp whoever goes up against him in the final ballot so it's not that risky a bet.

    The public will be upset that the Conservatives have responded to the multiple serious crises the last PM instigated/worsened by re-electing a deeply unserious man. Johnson is lazy and won't want to actually deal with these crises beyond throwing money at them, so he'll start by sacking Hunt et al which will make things worse. In November, he'll then run into the brick wall of the Standards Committee, which will have multiple televised hours of witnesses talking about how much of a clown Johnson is while the country burns around him.

    It will destroy the party and salt the earth behind it. Extinction.

    So, not all bad then.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926


    There are some principles bigger than electoral appeal. The assessment Tory MPs made (shared with much of the country I may add) was that Boris Johnson was fundamentally unfit to be PM.

    If they bring him back they will effectively be saying “yeah we get that but he’s popular so we don’t care.”

    "He's popular so we don't care" was more or less their rationale the last time they picked him, IIRC...
  • Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?

    Depending on when you start counting, there have been 3 / 6 / 50 years to expose BoJo's flaws. It's obvious what his flaws are.

    The only questions are whether enough relevant people care about them, and what the hell happens next.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?

    I think he is value. Arguably should be favourite.

    Does he want it?Yes. 90%+
    Can he get 100 MPs? Yes. He still had 100 supporters when he went and perhaps has more now. 80%
    Can he win with the membership? Yes. 80%.

    If he still 3/1? I backed him at 5-1 but tempted to buy more.
    3.7 now. I think he is coming in further.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.

    However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
    The country is still running. Taxes being paid and spent. Schools are open. NHS at the point of collapse as usual. Army training UKR soldiers.
    The bigger sun was the endless naval gazing first leadership campaign.
    There are stil decisions that need to be made. Basic government operation is not the only thing that is needed, that's why we need politicians in the first place to make policy decisions, such as on tax and borrowing.

    They aren't doing that if they are constantly bickering even after they pick a leader.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Pro_Rata said:

    And how is the weather in Helsinki this time of year?

    November is 'marraskuu' - the dead month.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    pm215 said:


    There are some principles bigger than electoral appeal. The assessment Tory MPs made (shared with much of the country I may add) was that Boris Johnson was fundamentally unfit to be PM.

    If they bring him back they will effectively be saying “yeah we get that but he’s popular so we don’t care.”

    "He's popular so we don't care" was more or less their rationale the last time they picked him, IIRC...
    It worked then. Now they are seemingly insistent on picking him when it won't work, since not believing he could save them was the main reason they ditched him.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Boris is far from guaranteed to beat Sunak with the members.

    In 2019 Boris beat Hunt 66-34.

    Since then Boris has resigned in disgrace and Sunak is a far stronger candidate than Hunt.

    Add in Sunak winning the indicative MPs vote vs Boris (obviously we have to wait and see on that) and it's entirely possible Boris loses 16/66 of his 2019 vote.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.

    However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
    The country is still running. Taxes being paid and spent. Schools are open. NHS at the point of collapse as usual. Army training UKR soldiers.
    The bigger sun was the endless naval gazing first leadership campaign.
    There are stil decisions that need to be made. Basic government operation is not the only thing that is needed, that's why we need politicians in the first place to make policy decisions, such as on tax and borrowing.

    They aren't doing that if they are constantly bickering even after they pick a leader.
    True, but a GE will be 4-6 weeks longer. At least this time it’s a week.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    I've bailed out for a £200 haircut. Lost in total about £260 with bets over the last few days.

    Still up £1,300 on Truss but I'm not risking a four figure sum on Boris anymore.

    I think enough Tory MPs are dumb enough to do it and the members would seal the deal.

    I simply cannot believe that the 1922 have left the door open for the members to have the final say again.

    I think if 100 MPs + 80,000 members reinstate Johnson then the party disintegrates. The Cabinet will again be stuffed with 3rd rate, incompetent yesmen because I can't see anyone of any stature or integrity agreeing to serve in it. It would be worse than the first time around because he's going to strut back into No 10 knowing he can get away with anything.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Bring it on. Bring it on. Enough. Already.

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    1h
    If reckless/brainless attempt to make egomaniac Johnson PM again succeeds, Tory party is headed for split. May happen anyway. But just spoken to two Tory MPs who would resign the whip. Would surely be more. He wouldn't command a Commons majority. Collapses into election wipeout.

    I wish.
    But in reality, turkeys don’t usually vote for Christmas. I’d expect resignations to be less than 20.
  • I'm resigned to Boris Johnson returning as PM next week.

    Resigned enough to actually vote for him IF he's on the ballot?

    BTW, has Tory Central or whatever they call themselves, done diddly since their last funfair, to make on-line voter more secure and less susceptible to error, fraud and absentee votes from Kaliningrad?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,996

    kle4 said:

    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?


    I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly

    Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.

    Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.

    Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.


    They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
    Yes. It’s hard for many people on here to acknowledge but Sunak is not the unity candidate. It’s very hard to see how he could maintain control, too many enemies. He’s the other side of the same coin to Boris. He should have realised this last time around. That he’s even running again shows how big his ego is.
    It's not hard, it's obvious he's not the unity candidate because Boris and his acolytes despise him, and the members would clearly only have him on sufferance.

    There isn't a unity candidate, 40 (and counting) backers for Boris even now shows the 150+ anti-Borisers are not enough to get to majority.
    Mordaunt could be a unity candidate but the anti-woke brigade have it in for her.

    I don't see who else it can be.
    Mordaunt forming an alliance with Kemi being her home secretary would more than satisfy social conservatives.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2022

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    That's what we were told to expect post Covid. It didn't happen, because he was constantly mired in personal scandals - and that's not about to change, since if he could change that he would have.

    It wasn't policy that brought Boris down, it was his character.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited October 2022

    Bring it on. Bring it on. Enough. Already.

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    1h
    If reckless/brainless attempt to make egomaniac Johnson PM again succeeds, Tory party is headed for split. May happen anyway. But just spoken to two Tory MPs who would resign the whip. Would surely be more. He wouldn't command a Commons majority. Collapses into election wipeout.

    What these people have to remember is that the last time the Tory Party split over Boris and those who weren’t his fans left, he went on to win the ensuing election and replaced them. He could, of course, blame “them” on all the chaos. Just like last time.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    No, as soon as Covid arrived, that was the new era.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.

    However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
    The country is still running. Taxes being paid and spent. Schools are open. NHS at the point of collapse as usual. Army training UKR soldiers.
    The bigger sun was the endless naval gazing first leadership campaign.
    There are stil decisions that need to be made. Basic government operation is not the only thing that is needed, that's why we need politicians in the first place to make policy decisions, such as on tax and borrowing.

    They aren't doing that if they are constantly bickering even after they pick a leader.
    True, but a GE will be 4-6 weeks longer. At least this time it’s a week.
    I think they need to pick someone and stabilise the country, but the argument for not holding on to January 2015 is getting very strong.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,996

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    The Tories cannot be a serious party under Boris. He is the one leadership contender I couldn't vote for.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    More seriously, the bond markets are still watching.

    Hunt has provided reassurance for the last, er, four working days and everything seemed under control.

    Boris will be unable to make politically difficult decisions. He will want to spend more and tax less because he likes being popular.

    It truly would be a disastrous decision for party and country. I'm also now convinced it'll happen.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    The whips were probably Truss backers, so quite likely to gravitate back to Boris.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
  • I'm resigned to Boris Johnson returning as PM next week.

    Is there a PMQs next week?

    Might need to order a supersized bucket of popcorn.
    Starmer must be exhausted. Every time he preps for PMQs for one of them another one pops up and takes their place.
    Actually easier methinks. All LOOL has to do, is dust off the same old questions, that are still unanswered.

    Sorta like a professor who can recycle the same lectures, with a wee bit of modifying, for each new crop of students.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    Can he even form a cabinet? Would not be altogether unamusing if he was elected leader and then had to resign because he couldn't fill all the key roles.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    Not to mention they’ll get an earful from their associations over the weekend.

    And I do think that is what at least one poll will say.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    Seems to me, basic problem with Rishi Sunak in this contest, is that he is the ONE candidate that was rejected by Tory members (many in more senses than one).

    No other potential candidate has that handicap.

    I know that polling shows considerable buyers remorse from the Pick-Your-Own-Lemon brigade. BUT that was testing Sunak versus Truss rematch - which clearly ain't happening.

    But the membership chose Truss, so who cares what they thought.
    The MPs put Truss to the membership.
    The MPs are the ones that should know her, her failings and strengths.
    The MPs are the ones who should know if she is stable, articulate, charasmatic and trustworthy.
    The MPs screwed up by offering a dud as one choice.
    By comparison the membership wrre innocent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?

    What flaws of Johnson's aren't already exposed?
    Google is your friend
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    Can he even form a cabinet? Would not be altogether unamusing if he was elected leader and then had to resign because he couldn't fill all the key roles.
    Well, anyone who served under Truss would continue to be willing to serve under Boris, I'm sure. Others might just be wearily resigned to things and agree - if the party brings him back they are declaring themselves to be the Boris Party, and he can do and say anything and they obviously won't ditch him a second time, so might as well pick up a ministerial salary until the next GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    Can he even form a cabinet? Would not be altogether unamusing if he was elected leader and then had to resign because he couldn't fill all the key roles.
    Well, anyone who served under Truss would continue to be willing to serve under Boris, I'm sure. Others might just be wearily resigned to things and agree - if the party brings him back they are declaring themselves to be the Boris Party, and he can do and say anything and they obviously won't ditch him a second time, so might as well pick up a ministerial salary until the next GE.
    Would he want Zahawi? Or Hunt? Or Shapps? Meanwhile would Truss herself stay on?

    That's four holes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited October 2022
    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
  • novanova Posts: 525

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    Blair to Brown is the only relatively recent example, and that was certainly different. He'd been chancellor for 10 years, through three elections, and it wasn't exactly unexpected that he would take over at some point.

    We're heading for a third leader within months, and the fifth Chancellor so far just three years after the election, plus the ridiculous levels of turnover in other cabinet posts. Hunt is talking as if it's austerity 2.0, following on from Boris's levelling up mandate, and Truss's dash for growth. Who knows what happens next, but it certainly isn't predictably what people voted for.
  • RobD said:

    Seems to me, basic problem with Rishi Sunak in this contest, is that he is the ONE candidate that was rejected by Tory members (many in more senses than one).

    No other potential candidate has that handicap.

    I know that polling shows considerable buyers remorse from the Pick-Your-Own-Lemon brigade. BUT that was testing Sunak versus Truss rematch - which clearly ain't happening.

    But the membership chose Truss, so who cares what they thought.
    Because they are gonna make the choice again IF two candidates make the final.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited October 2022

    There seems to be a conflict between PB experts (OGH, CasinoRoyale) and the media, or perhaps the media’s reporting of Tory views.

    The first dismiss Boris’s chances of making 100. The second think it is inevitable.

    Some biiiiig reputations on the line here.

    There is a lot of ramping going on from Boris fanboys just now but I'm not sure I buy it.

    Having lived through the chaos of the 3 years since the last GE how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for more of the same? If they do, then frankly, the Conservative Party deserve all they get.

    Have those that keep banging on about popular Johnson is forgotten his ratings when he was finally slung out a few months ago? The hatred that voters were expressing due to his lies and lockdown antics? The huge by-election defeats in Honiton and North Shropshire?

    Johnson returns and all that comes flooding back as we move straight into the process that will determine whether he lied to parliament or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    It probably came up, but with all the Liz and Lettuce stuff I'm surprised not to have seen it noted one of Boris's children is called Lettice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2022

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    And even Presidents who are heads of government as well as heads of state with significant policymaking and legislative and foreign affairs power can come in with their party in power without ever winning a national election eg Gerald Ford. LBJ and Truman were also President for a significant period before they won an election.

    Alain Poher was also acting President of France on Pompidou's death until D'Estaing was elected
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    We are heading for it, the only thing that might plausibly stop it is if there is a “what the hell are you doing?! market/media reaction over the weekend which makes them consider their position.
    Ratters said:

    More seriously, the bond markets are still watching.

    Hunt has provided reassurance for the last, er, four working days and everything seemed under control.

    Boris will be unable to make politically difficult decisions. He will want to spend more and tax less because he likes being popular.

    It truly would be a disastrous decision for party and country. I'm also now convinced it'll happen.

    Me too, though I suspect it will result in a collapse of the government majority and an immediate general election, so in some ways it might free us from the wretched death throes of the Tory Party more quickly.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    kle4 said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.

    However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
    The country is still running. Taxes being paid and spent. Schools are open. NHS at the point of collapse as usual. Army training UKR soldiers.
    The bigger sin was the endless naval gazing first leadership campaign.

    Edit: typo
    Naval gazing? "I see no ships"?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    IanB2 said:

    Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?

    What flaws of Johnson's aren't already exposed?
    Google is your friend
    Google is not my friend. Not with its recent push into advertising that beats my ad filter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
    His removal was caused by the revolt of Sunak and Zahawi. Both of them were ardent leavers.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    kle4 said:

    It probably came up, but with all the Liz and Lettuce stuff I'm surprised not to have seen it noted one of Boris's children is called Lettice.

    A product of his salad days no doubt.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    I think you're mixing cause and effect.

    Boris didn't become a divisive lying scumbag in order to get Brexit done.

    He backed Brexit because it was the divisive lying scambaggy thing to do.

    The Truss fiasco is a demonstration that character is destiny. Boris's terrible character has been fixed since he was a teenager.
    Your reply reinforces his point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2022

    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
    And quite a few people who pretend that everyone who dislikes him is doing so for that reason.

    Many are in fact still Brexit supporters, and others have noted he has the ability to be a good PM and even gotten some big calls right, but still think he is simply unfit due to his character. This is like that nonsense about him being brought down by never-Boris opponents, which doesn't explain the swathe of resignations he faced for his very serious poor conduct from loyal people.

    More to the point we have seen post Brexit Boris already, so what are you even on about?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168
    RobD said:

    Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?

    Johnson's flaws need exposing?
    OK, not exposing, but being brought back to the front of people’s thinking.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
    His removal was caused by the revolt of Sunak and Zahawi. Both of them were ardent leavers.
    The febrile political context was because of Brexit.
  • kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    We are heading for it, the only thing that might plausibly stop it is if there is a “what the hell are you doing?! market/media reaction over the weekend which makes them consider their position.
    Ratters said:

    More seriously, the bond markets are still watching.

    Hunt has provided reassurance for the last, er, four working days and everything seemed under control.

    Boris will be unable to make politically difficult decisions. He will want to spend more and tax less because he likes being popular.

    It truly would be a disastrous decision for party and country. I'm also now convinced it'll happen.

    Me too, though I suspect it will result in a collapse of the government majority and an immediate general election, so in some ways it might free us from the wretched death throes of the Tory Party more quickly.
    Yes. I know I wrote earlier that I saw no route to an early GE but now one becomes obvious.

    Boris returns as PM and at least 40 MPs cross the floor. A VONC succeeds and Parliament is dissolved.

    This could happen.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    The 1922 are fxcking clueless to allow any chance of it going to the membership .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    OGH predicts Johnson will struggle to get the 100

    He’s at 39 already (including his fat self).
    He seems to have some momentum at the moment.

    It beggars belief, given the reasons for his
    departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
    Look at the other two (likely) choices:

    - Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6"
    - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not
    particularly impressive in the hustings.

    Not exactly spoilt for choice .

    Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
    He's a banker, chances are Hunt would stay on as CoE and then the Tory Red Wall vote would desert plus some of their Blue Wall support. Sunak guarantees the Tories lose, Johnson...well...

    The Tories will lose whoever leads them now, Sunak might just save some Tory MPs seats, that is all
    Interesting that on Question Time Boris's Sister Rachel favoured Labour and SKS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    OllyT said:

    There seems to be a conflict between PB experts (OGH, CasinoRoyale) and the media, or perhaps the media’s reporting of Tory views.

    The first dismiss Boris’s chances of making 100. The second think it is inevitable.

    Some biiiiig reputations on the line here.

    There is a lot of ramping going on from Boris fanboys just now but I'm not sure I buy it.

    Having lived through the chaos of the 3 years since the last GE how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for more of the same?
    Between 80-120.

    All you say is true, and it is frankly weird that his backers want people to act like he is 2019 Boris, or now, some mythical 2022 Boris totally different to the 2022 Boris of a month ago, but it is't fanboy ramping alone, or fearmongers alone - the names are there and growing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    HYUFD said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    And even Presidents who are heads of government as well as heads of state with significant policymaking and legislative and foreign affairs power can come in with their party in power without ever winning a national election eg Gerald Ford. LBJ and Truman were also President for a significant period before they won an election
    Technically, the Vice President is elected in a joint election with the President.

    Except for Ford, who was nominated later. (As was Rockefeller.)
  • A possible problem is if there are 2/3 candidates over 100, as there might not be such a clear-cut choice that the other has to drop out

    They’re clearly hoping someone will get 200+ and make it obvious/easy…
  • kle4 said:

    It probably came up, but with all the Liz and Lettuce stuff I'm surprised not to have seen it noted one of Boris's children is called Lettice.

    The number of his children is one of those numbers like Graham's number that is finite but cannot be expressed or conceived in mind due to to its hugeness.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    OGH predicts Johnson will struggle to get the 100

    He’s at 39 already (including his fat self).
    He seems to have some momentum at the moment.

    It beggars belief, given the reasons for his
    departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
    Look at the other two (likely) choices:

    - Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6"
    - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not
    particularly impressive in the hustings.

    Not exactly spoilt for choice .

    Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
    He's a banker, chances are Hunt would stay on as CoE and then the Tory Red Wall vote would desert plus some of their Blue Wall support. Sunak guarantees the Tories lose, Johnson...well...

    The Tories will lose whoever leads them now, Sunak might just save some Tory MPs seats, that is all
    Interesting that on Question Time Boris's Sister Rachel favoured Labour and SKS.
    Why is that a surprise? She’s been in favour of parties like the Soubry vanity vehicle since 2017.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    And even Presidents who are heads of government as well as heads of state with significant policymaking and legislative and foreign affairs power can come in with their party in power without ever winning a national election eg Gerald Ford. LBJ and Truman were also President for a significant period before they won an election
    Technically, the Vice President is elected in a joint election with the President.

    Except for Ford, who was nominated later. (As was Rockefeller.)
    Go back to when the runner up in the presidential became vice-president. Hilarity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    And even Presidents who are heads of government as well as heads of state with significant policymaking and legislative and foreign affairs power can come in with their party in power without ever winning a national election eg Gerald Ford. LBJ and Truman were also President for a significant period before they won an election
    Technically, the Vice President is elected in a joint election with the President.

    Except for Ford, who was nominated later. (As was Rockefeller.)
    Yes, Ford was never elected either President or Vice President and as you say Rockeller was never elected VP but they led America for almost 3 years
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Evidence for those ridiculous assertions, there came none.
    I'm afraid WG is spouting any old rubbish to try and build up Johnson, same as Guido.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    A possible problem is if there are 2/3 candidates over 100, as there might not be such a clear-cut choice that the other has to drop out

    They’re clearly hoping someone will get 200+ and make it obvious/easy…

    That doesn’t work if one has 200+ but Bozo has over 100 because Bozo knows that the membership will vote for him
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    We are heading for it, the only thing that might plausibly stop it is if there is a “what the hell are you doing?! market/media reaction over the weekend which makes them consider their position.
    Ratters said:

    More seriously, the bond markets are still watching.

    Hunt has provided reassurance for the last, er, four working days and everything seemed under control.

    Boris will be unable to make politically difficult decisions. He will want to spend more and tax less because he likes being popular.

    It truly would be a disastrous decision for party and country. I'm also now convinced it'll happen.

    Me too, though I suspect it will result in a collapse of the government majority and an immediate general election, so in some ways it might free us from the wretched death throes of the Tory Party more quickly.
    Yes. I know I wrote earlier that I saw no route to an early GE but now one becomes obvious.

    Boris returns as PM and at least 40 MPs cross the floor. A VONC succeeds and Parliament is dissolved.

    This could happen.
    Yep, Alastair Meeks was outlining something similar earlier.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited October 2022
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.

    How many of the bastards are there?

    Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.

    Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
    The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.

    It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
    Can he even form a cabinet? Would not be altogether unamusing if he was elected leader and then had to resign because he couldn't fill all the key roles.
    He's going to be back in Downing Street and he has the capacity to win the next election. Probably not an 80 seat majority but a majority of 20, and every man- jack Conservative MP will be a Johnson acolyte. It is very depressing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
    His removal was caused by the revolt of Sunak and Zahawi. Both of them were ardent leavers.
    The febrile political context was because of Brexit.
    Don't be ludicrous. The febrile political context was caused by:

    1) Paterson
    2) Partygate
    3) Pincher.

    None of those were anything to do with Brexit. One was corruption, one was criminality and the third was dishonesty. Any of them showed Johnson was unfit for high office, but take them all together and he hadn't a prayer of survival. It's only because he has no integrity and no sense that he thought he did.

    I know you're obsessed with the EU but do try to look past that at this thing called 'real life.'
    Brexit is a factor bubbling under a lot of politics, and plenty of people dislike Boris because of it. But it is those things you mention which caused a shift from 'many dislike him' to 'he is getting so toxic his own MPs took him down'.

    It beggars belief that a factor which has been in existence this whole time is claimed to be the reason he saw a dramatic collapse of support Paterson onwards.
  • kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    And even Presidents who are heads of government as well as heads of state with significant policymaking and legislative and foreign affairs power can come in with their party in power without ever winning a national election eg Gerald Ford. LBJ and Truman were also President for a significant period before they won an election
    Technically, the Vice President is elected in a joint election with the President.

    Except for Ford, who was nominated later. (As was Rockefeller.)
    Go back to when the runner up in the presidential became vice-president. Hilarity.
    End of that procedure (after 1800 tie) was start of turning Vice President into glorified stump.

    Which is what VP still is, they only have as much power & influence as POTUS will allow. Which, despite appearances from Eisenhower forward, ain't that much. With Cheney-Bush administration being notable exception.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

    Indeed. Tory members are that batshit crazy.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    @bencsmoke

    flatmate has just asked me whether i think the lettuce voted leaf or romaine in the brexit referendum and im frankly furious at how funny i found it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ping said:

    @bencsmoke

    flatmate has just asked me whether i think the lettuce voted leaf or romaine in the brexit referendum and im frankly furious at how funny i found it

    What a little gem.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

    He could make anything up to suggest support for Johnson . I don’t believe a word coming out of the mouths of the Bozo arse lickers .
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    A possible problem is if there are 2/3 candidates over 100, as there might not be such a clear-cut choice that the other has to drop out

    The most recent US presidential election had 2 candidates over 100.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,261
    No impressive meal photos today. Just a quick press trip picnic stop


  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    A possible problem is if there are 2/3 candidates over 100, as there might not be such a clear-cut choice that the other has to drop out

    The most recent US presidential election had 2 candidates over 100.
    They weren't that old.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    nova said:

    Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.

    Blair to Brown is the only relatively recent example, and that was certainly different. He'd been chancellor for 10 years, through three elections, and it wasn't exactly unexpected that he would take over at some point.

    We're heading for a third leader within months, and the fifth Chancellor so far just three years after the election, plus the ridiculous levels of turnover in other cabinet posts. Hunt is talking as if it's austerity 2.0, following on from Boris's levelling up mandate, and Truss's dash for growth. Who knows what happens next, but it certainly isn't predictably what people voted for.
    I accept all that, but I am annoyed by those seemingly espousing the line that the nation elects a PM. We don’t, and never have. And tbh honest Labour have only been in power for 13 years since 1979 so it’s not surprising there are few examples of recent leadership changes while in office.
  • murali_s said:

    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

    Indeed. Tory members are that batshit crazy.
    You could not have a clearer illustration of why the Party is in such a mess.
  • nico679 said:

    The 1922 are fxcking clueless to allow any chance of it going to the membership .

    Tory Party constitution as written bit of a problem in that respect.

    Sure, they could just junk it, like they did with unwritten British constitution. But a political party MIGHT encounter difficulties that a government can just vote away or ignore at leisure?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

    If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    A possible problem is if there are 2/3 candidates over 100, as there might not be such a clear-cut choice that the other has to drop out

    The most recent US presidential election had 2 candidates over 100.
    Slight exaggeration. Both over 70.

    Although that reminds me of a bumper sticker campaign in 1996. The Republican one was simple. 'Dole in 96' it said. The Democratic one was even simpler. 'Dole IS 96!'
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

    The lunatic moonmen who wanted Truss have proven themselves wanting.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Of course the other possible outcome is that Boris doesn’t stand but sets in place the “he’d have won if he did” narrative. I reckon he will return once the Tories are in opposition, and if he does so will have a decent chance of regrowing a party in his image and returning in 2029. In the meantime he can make a lot of dosh.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    There seems to be a conflict between PB experts (OGH, CasinoRoyale) and the media, or perhaps the media’s reporting of Tory views.

    The first dismiss Boris’s chances of making 100. The second think it is inevitable.

    Some biiiiig reputations on the line here.

    There is a lot of ramping going on from Boris fanboys just now but I'm not sure I buy it.

    Having lived through the chaos of the 3 years since the last GE how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for more of the same?
    Between 80-120.

    All you say is true, and it is frankly weird that his backers want people to act like he is 2019 Boris, or now, some mythical 2022 Boris totally different to the 2022 Boris of a month ago, but it is't fanboy ramping alone, or fearmongers alone - the names are there and growing.
    I'm sure someone correct me if I'm wrong but can't an MP say any old thing to the local members but vote differently in the privacy of the voting booth?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Maybe Johnson thinks he can win. Or maybe he just wants to stop Sunak? Allow Penny to be a unity candidate because like Truss he think she is more likely to crash and burn?

    At least the people campaigning for Boris can make it absolutely clear to everyone who the idiots in the Tory benches are. There's a worrying flaw in this system. You have to get enough support to make it to the final two. So if you promise jobs to enough non-entities who wouldn't stand a chance of promotion under anyone else you might make it to the members. And 75,000 of them should be enough to govern.
  • Leon said:

    No impressive meal photos today. Just a quick press trip picnic stop


    Colorado River down there?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
    Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
    His removal was caused by the revolt of Sunak and Zahawi. Both of them were ardent leavers.
    The febrile political context was because of Brexit.
    Don't be ludicrous. The febrile political context was caused by:

    1) Paterson
    2) Partygate
    3) Pincher.

    None of those were anything to do with Brexit. One was corruption, one was criminality and the third was dishonesty. Any of them showed Johnson was unfit for high office, but take them all together and he hadn't a prayer of survival. It's only because he has no integrity and no sense that he thought he did.

    I know you're obsessed with the EU but do try to look past that at this thing called 'real life.'
    2), while criminal, the bigger sin was hypocrisy. That Tory MPs think he could swan back in, all forgiven, suggests they need the cull that a GE would give (on current polling). Yes a few die hard doughnuts are ringing in R5 saying bring back Boris. But the vast majority of the country sees him for what he is. I’m reluctant to fat shame, especially as I am carrying too much right now, but in his case it really does seem to show his character - lazy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    If Bozo finishes second, then no chance that he will stand aside. He'll take it to the members and those feckwits will put the lying shit back in.

    Hopefully there are enough sane MPs to keep him out of the top two.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Alistair said:

    A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.

    With all due respect that's the shittest theory I have ever read on PB.
    And that's a high bar.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    edited October 2022
    So what happens if the committee finds Johnson misled parliament. Will we have another leadership election ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Iain Dale taking the OGH line
This discussion has been closed.