Made a joke yesterday that some will claim all this was orchestrated by Sunak.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.
I think the 20 years thing might be about right. Add another 10 to that if the Clown makes a come back
"5:32pm 'Campaign is go!' One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
Not being a lefty and being underwhelmed by both of them, I wonder which one Labour fear more. My instinct is they have so much ammunition to use against Sunak that they would prefer him. But is that right?
Labour surely has more ammunition against Boris, but with polls as they are, I doubt they'll be sweating either way.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
I think it could be close. How many wanted him all along (given that was most of Truss's pitch, call it 30-50), and how many regret his going, and how many think since they are losing anyway might as well let him own it?
The “fuck it let’s roll the dice, he does have something” factor.
Quite.
I thought my wife was joking when she told me Boris was under consideration. Starmer will be praying it's him.
If it's Mordaunt or Sunak, the Tories won't win the next GE but they won't become extinct either. The former would still be true under Boris, but extinction becomes a definite possibilty.
The part of me that loves to watch the world burn would enjoy the (probably 5-20% probability) scenario of Boris coming back, seeming to trail through the election campaign, but then it being his face at 10pm on the night when the exit poll comes out.
Almost worth it to watch Twitter explode. It would be like 2015 x 100.
The BBC exit poll predicts....... an increased majority for Boris Johnson. Wtaf?! Is this right? Jesus.
Am I the only one who has no idea what this refers to?
@Cicero reported a rumour doing the rounds in Finland that could bring down the British government. It was so incendiary that no details could be given.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Am I the only one who has no idea what this refers to?
Something to do with sex. But disappointingly the PBers who claim to know are about as titillating as a 1950s film about a striptease artist with an U rating.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Seriously scuppers Johnson's chances if true.
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
It is clear that Mrs Brady doesn't want the members to have a say. It is "if". So we get nominations by 2pm Monday and straight into reductive voting until it is the final 2.
If it is Sunak and Mordaunt I hope that a deal can be done where she stands aside and he takes over that night.
But will MPs accept this? The ERG / mouth-foaming right will be incandescent at the "remainer stitch up" requiring 100 nominations. Will they pledge fealty to a Sunak government of Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt etc etc?
But will members accept this? They voted for Truss, not Sunak. And not these remoaners. So Sunak faces a right old mess.
The party will be taking a hell of a risk if it goes for Penny Mordaunt. She's still very inexperienced, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the previous campaign. Admittedly she comes across well, but this is a time when what is needed is a grip on the complex nitty-gritty of government.
Am I the only one who has no idea what this refers to?
@Cicero reported a rumour doing the rounds in Finland that could bring down the British government. It was so incendiary that no details could be given.
As it happened the British government proved perfectly capable of bringing itself down with no help required from Finland, thank you.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Seriously scuppers Johnson's chances if true.
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
No one's successfully talked Boris into pulling out before.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Seriously scuppers Johnson's chances if true.
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
No one's successfully talked Boris into pulling out before.
It is clear that Mrs Brady doesn't want the members to have a say. It is "if". So we get nominations by 2pm Monday and straight into reductive voting until it is the final 2.
If it is Sunak and Mordaunt I hope that a deal can be done where she stands aside and he takes over that night.
But will MPs accept this? The ERG / mouth-foaming right will be incandescent at the "remainer stitch up" requiring 100 nominations. Will they pledge fealty to a Sunak government of Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt etc etc?
But will members accept this? They voted for Truss, not Sunak. And not these remoaners. So Sunak faces a right old mess.
It is clear that Mrs Brady doesn't want the members to have a say. It is "if". So we get nominations by 2pm Monday and straight into reductive voting until it is the final 2.
If it is Sunak and Mordaunt I hope that a deal can be done where she stands aside and he takes over that night.
But will MPs accept this? The ERG / mouth-foaming right will be incandescent at the "remainer stitch up" requiring 100 nominations. Will they pledge fealty to a Sunak government of Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt etc etc?
But will members accept this? They voted for Truss, not Sunak. And not these remoaners. So Sunak faces a right old mess.
I strongly suspect that Sunak/Mordaunt would quite like to provoke the ERG into splitting off so they can lead a united party into a GE and opposition
Am I the only one who has no idea what this refers to?
@Cicero reported a rumour doing the rounds in Finland that could bring down the British government. It was so incendiary that no details could be given.
There was a wealth management fund in Finland that realised that the Uk defined benefits pension sector was sitting on a bed of nitroglycerin called LDI. And that as global yields climbed it was going to destruct the pensions sector and take the uk govt with it.
The party will be taking a hell of a risk if it goes for Penny Mordaunt. She's still very inexperienced, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the previous campaign. Admittedly she comes across well, but this is a time when what is needed is a grip on the complex nitty-gritty of government.
I am not sure that Rishi Sunak is exactly in a strong position there. Whoever becomes PM will need to lean in heavily on the expertise of Hunt. Unless The Clown wins, in which case Hunt will resign.
The party will be taking a hell of a risk if it goes for Penny Mordaunt. She's still very inexperienced, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the previous campaign. Admittedly she comes across well, but this is a time when what is needed is a grip on the complex nitty-gritty of government.
I think you’re right. They need someone with heft and gravitas and even then, that person needs a senior team behind them to back them up. Mourdaunt is a bit weak on both fronts. Who is her Willie?
Am I the only one who has no idea what this refers to?
Something to do with sex. But disappointingly the PBers who claim to know are about as titillating as a 1950s film about a striptease artist with an U rating.
I don't believe it, given the stuff about Truss which is common currency.
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
The party will be taking a hell of a risk if it goes for Penny Mordaunt. She's still very inexperienced, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the previous campaign. Admittedly she comes across well, but this is a time when what is needed is a grip on the complex nitty-gritty of government.
Following that logic, I laid her at 4/1, the other day. She comes across, to me, as a complete lightweight.
I think it’s either Boris or Sunak. They’re known quantities.
Then again, maybe being the projection candidate helps her?
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
In the interests of getting my vote again they should limit it thus all the time.
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
Fair and reasonable.
And no one ask what the point of being a member is then and force me to put the party membership chart back up.
The party will be taking a hell of a risk if it goes for Penny Mordaunt. She's still very inexperienced, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the previous campaign. Admittedly she comes across well, but this is a time when what is needed is a grip on the complex nitty-gritty of government.
I think you’re right. They need someone with heft and gravitas and even then, that person needs a senior team behind them to back them up. Mourdaunt is a bit weak on both fronts. Who is her Willie?
Hunt could actually run the government, I suppose, but I have a feeling that Penny Mordaunt would want to actually be a proper PM and take some decisions herself, which wouldn't end well.
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
In the interests of getting my vote again they should limit it thus all the time.
Tbf, if a party's members elect a leader while they are in opposition then at least the electorate get a chance to reject said leader (and party). Compare and contrast J Corbyn and L Truss.
So, once her successor is elected, will Truss stay on in the Commons? A by-election to come in South West Norfolk?
3 former PMs in the Commons? Fun stuff.
Her career is finished, her legacy that of a punchline, she might as well stick out the parliamentary term and pick up the paycheck - she won't be getting the big bucks May and Boris get on the speaking circuit.
It is clear that Mrs Brady doesn't want the members to have a say. It is "if". So we get nominations by 2pm Monday and straight into reductive voting until it is the final 2.
If it is Sunak and Mordaunt I hope that a deal can be done where she stands aside and he takes over that night.
But will MPs accept this? The ERG / mouth-foaming right will be incandescent at the "remainer stitch up" requiring 100 nominations. Will they pledge fealty to a Sunak government of Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt etc etc?
But will members accept this? They voted for Truss, not Sunak. And not these remoaners. So Sunak faces a right old mess.
Sunak is obviously the right choice but if the Party is completely dysfunctional it doesn't matter who they choose. They're not going to get out of this mess any time soon, if ever. I just heard one of their Party Members say on Radio 4 that they wanted Boris back. She seemed oblivious that, amongst other things, he is due to hear the judgement of the Parliamentary Standards Committee soon. So if they do choose him they could very soon find they have to replace him.
With Party Members like that, what hope is there for the Conservatives?
Btw, I was in Waitrose when the news broke and got into an amicable if cautious discussion of it with the two checkout ladies. A few minutes later the carpark attendant gave me, unsolicited, his less ambiguous views.
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”
If Suella Braverman is the answer, what is the question?
Presumably it's "do you want to live in a quasi-fascist, police state?"
There were some good comments about Braverman earlier. She is flying high on this deeply unfounded self confidence, in apparent ignorance of the fact that she was originally appointed to a ministerial role to be a useful idiot who will sacrifice her credibility as a lawyer to justify indefensible political decisions. She had a brief chance to prove herself as a serious politician as Home Secretary, but blew it by ignoring cabinet responsibility, freelancing on policy, doing GB News presenters style monologues in parliament and finally doing an absurd staged resignation. She seems to embody everything that is wrong with the type of people who have developed political careers under the reign of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
Rees Mogg is worth watching (figuratively). Given his comments on a Boris comeback i can only see him declaring for Boz if he thinks its possible/probable
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
In the interests of getting my vote again they should limit it thus all the time.
Tbf, if a party's members elect a leader while they are in opposition then at least the electorate get a chance to reject said leader (and party). Compare and contrast J Corbyn and L Truss.
Labour in theory could elect a Corbyn in power too. Once candidates are nominated by Labour MPs then Labour members, registered supporters and affiliated supporters get the final say. Labour MPs don't even get to pick the last 2.
If the idea is the membership only chooses the leader in opposition and MPs alone choose the leader in power it needs to apply to both parties.
In 2007 John McDonnell in theory could have become PM. He wanted to stand and it was only Brownites bullying Labour MPs not to nominate him and crown their man that stopped that
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
In the interests of getting my vote again they should limit it thus all the time.
Tbf, if a party's members elect a leader while they are in opposition then at least the electorate get a chance to reject said leader (and party). Compare and contrast J Corbyn and L Truss.
Labour in theory could elect a Corbyn in power too. Once candidates are nominated by Labour MPs then Labour members, registered supporters and affiliated supporters get the final say. Labour MPs don't even get to pick the last 2.
If the idea is the membership only chooses the leader in opposition and MPs alone choose the leader in power it needs to apply to both parties.
In 2007 John McConnell in theory could have become PM. He wanted to stand and it was only Brownites bullying Labour MPs not to nominate him and crown their man that stopped that
It was how Ken Livingstone got power in the GLC....
Mordaunt’s not up to it. I’m not even sure she’s up to a Great Office. Let’s get serious.
I don’t much like Rishi. In fact, I don’t like him at all. But I think he can do the job.
I think she can do the job.
Keep Hunt as CoE.
If Rishi can be persuaded to chip in, even better.
Then she’s there to steady the ship and make collective decisions with the other two until the inevitable 2023 election when she gets a chance to run a campaign (which she like any Tory leader will lose).
She won’t have any flexibility to make significant policy changes.
That said I think if it gets down to Rishi vs Penny it’s likely he wins - the “I told you so” vote will be strong.
But I want Penny to do well because we need a candidate to keep The Clown out of the final 2.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Seriously scuppers Johnson's chances if true.
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
My latest Britain After #Brexit newsletter, in which I argue that — for all the lumps and bumps to come — it’s the beginning of the end for the flat-earther Brexit brigade.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Seriously scuppers Johnson's chances if true.
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
Boris has never been one to pull out in the past.
Sorry I couldn’t leave the feeder line hanging.
Fortunately he does have form for pulling out in politics at least, as in 2016. So perhaps we will be lucky.
I think Sunak gets about 140+ nominations so the question is what happens with the other 215 or so. Three basic scenarios:
(1) They split three or more ways and can't reconcile over the weekend and so he's coronated.
(2) They split evenly between Penny and Boris then there are three contenders. Say, Rishi 142, Penny 113 and Boris 104. Then I think Rishi lends Penny votes to knock Boris out. But he struggles with her in the members vote. Probably narrowly loses to her.
(3) Boris gets 122 nominations and knocks Penny out (who only gets 95) and its just Rishi v. Boris - then i think Boris comes second with the MPs in the final round and then wins with the members.
Safest course for Rishi in all scenarios is to ensure no second candidate gets the nominations. So his strategy will presumably be to try and "bag" 170-180 MPs and then farm 30-40 of them out.
From a Labour point of view. I don't think we really care whether it's Sunak, Mordaunt or Johnson - much of a muchness, even though they're all quite different characters. Each of the three have strengths and weaknesses, and all are beatable. If you could be so good as to go for Braverman or JRM, though, I'd be even more confident.
They've just run a clip of Matthew Parris talking about what Truss would be like as PM before she was chosen. He got her absolutely spot on. He said she was tin eared and wouldn't listen to any advice.
Comments
You FUCKWIT MPs!!!
Sunak 250 MP votes
Members will still vote for the clown
To whom?
I thought my wife was joking when she told me Boris was under consideration. Starmer will be praying it's him.
If it's Mordaunt or Sunak, the Tories won't win the next GE but they won't become extinct either. The former would still be true under Boris, but extinction becomes a definite possibilty.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4181508#Comment_4181508
Mordaunt I think would cause most problems for Labour and she has great hair !
Say he scrapes enough to come second in round 1. In round 2 he gets 120 or so and Sunak gets double that -Johnson's going to have to pull out.
If it is Sunak and Mordaunt I hope that a deal can be done where she stands aside and he takes over that night.
But will MPs accept this? The ERG / mouth-foaming right will be incandescent at the "remainer stitch up" requiring 100 nominations. Will they pledge fealty to a Sunak government of Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt etc etc?
But will members accept this? They voted for Truss, not Sunak. And not these remoaners. So Sunak faces a right old mess.
But if it’s something like 200 Rishi 151 Johnson, they will go with Johnson.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July–September_2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)#Results
Are there only 351 Tory MPs with the whip (or who can vote?)
Presumably.
He cannot hope to lead the PCP through the coming economic turmoil if he doesn't have the support of at least a majority of them.
And the electorate then told him, not you, mate.
So expect Gove to go for her again
If either of them drops out and backs the other, pile on Boris, I’m afraid…
I think it’s either Boris or Sunak. They’re known quantities.
Then again, maybe being the projection candidate helps her?
And no one ask what the point of being a member is then and force me to put the party membership chart back up.
The question is rather what recovery, if any, is possible.
I’m not even sure she’s up to a Great Office.
Let’s get serious.
I don’t much like Rishi.
In fact, I don’t like him at all.
But I think he can do the job.
Her career is finished, her legacy that of a punchline, she might as well stick out the parliamentary term and pick up the paycheck - she won't be getting the big bucks May and Boris get on the speaking circuit.
With Party Members like that, what hope is there for the Conservatives?
Btw, I was in Waitrose when the news broke and got into an amicable if cautious discussion of it with the two checkout ladies. A few minutes later the carpark attendant gave me, unsolicited, his less ambiguous views.
I think they call that 'cut-through'?
He might have a high floor but a low ceiling. I'd say about 80 MPs.
If the idea is the membership only chooses the leader in opposition and MPs alone choose the leader in power it needs to apply to both parties.
In 2007 John McDonnell in theory could have become PM. He wanted to stand and it was only Brownites bullying Labour MPs not to nominate him and crown their man that stopped that
Keep Hunt as CoE.
If Rishi can be persuaded to chip in, even better.
Then she’s there to steady the ship and make collective decisions with the other two until the inevitable 2023 election when she gets a chance to run a campaign (which she like any Tory leader will lose).
She won’t have any flexibility to make significant policy changes.
That said I think if it gets down to Rishi vs Penny it’s likely he wins - the “I told you so” vote will be strong.
But I want Penny to do well because we need a candidate to keep The Clown out of the final 2.
Sorry I couldn’t leave the feeder line hanging.
My latest Britain After #Brexit newsletter, in which I argue that — for all the lumps and bumps to come — it’s the beginning of the end for the flat-earther Brexit brigade.
https://on.ft.com/3CNI58k https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1583144861330350081/photo/1
Twerps.
Leaves fall on pavements.
Next weekend we change the clocks
And the government.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63327999
That wouldn't really soothe the markets.
The SS currently gives Boris 23 vs Sunak 18 & Penny 6
Boris includes 2x “A whip” and 1x “1992 member” (?!)
So we lose a useless PM to replace that with a pathological liar !
(1) They split three or more ways and can't reconcile over the weekend and so he's coronated.
(2) They split evenly between Penny and Boris then there are three contenders. Say, Rishi 142, Penny 113 and Boris 104. Then I think Rishi lends Penny votes to knock Boris out. But he struggles with her in the members vote. Probably narrowly loses to her.
(3) Boris gets 122 nominations and knocks Penny out (who only gets 95) and its just Rishi v. Boris - then i think Boris comes second with the MPs in the final round and then wins with the members.
Safest course for Rishi in all scenarios is to ensure no second candidate gets the nominations. So his strategy will presumably be to try and "bag" 170-180 MPs and then farm 30-40 of them out.
Brady said: MPs WILL VOTE ON THE FINAL 2 - so the members will know who the MPs prefer.
That is surely key.
Yet another crisis
Entertains the world