The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
Would that be before or after the Russians blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam?
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports Zelenskyy, in an address to the European Council, said that the Russian forces have mined the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and calls for an international mission which needs to ensure the demining of the dam.
Can't help but wonder whether all the lurid threats about nuclear weapons are a bit of Overton window shifting so that we accept non-nuclear destruction as not as bad as it could have been.
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
Baldwin was Prime Minister three times, actually.
But yes, they were all removed by elections and remained party leader (except Gladstone, who resigned in a huff in 1874 before returning in a bigger huff in 1878). The only party leader who ever came back for a second go in the twentieth century was Bonar Law in 1922, and he'd resigned for health reasons.
Edit - I'm not including the early Labour leadership system where they didn't have a leader but one member of the party was elected as spokesman for one year. If you do include that MacDonald, Adams, Clynes and Henderson all had second goes.
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament season.
He'll have been out of Downing Street for part of Autumn, and that's it. Ridiculous.
In the interests of parliamentary governance, the rules of all the main parties should limit the leadership electorate to MPs when the party is in power.
In the interests of getting my vote again they should limit it thus all the time.
Tbf, if a party's members elect a leader while they are in opposition then at least the electorate get a chance to reject said leader (and party). Compare and contrast J Corbyn and L Truss.
Labour in theory could elect a Corbyn in power too. Once candidates are nominated by Labour MPs then Labour members, registered supporters and affiliated supporters get the final say. Labour MPs don't even get to pick the last 2.
If the idea is the membership only chooses the leader in opposition and MPs alone choose the leader in power it needs to apply to both parties.
In 2007 John McDonnell in theory could have become PM. He wanted to stand and it was only Brownites bullying Labour MPs not to nominate him and crown their man that stopped that
That might be your opinion, but the election is for party leader and there is no reason why all parties should have the same rules about electing their leaders. It's even worse if you mean "applies to both parties" as only Labour and Conservative, because there is no rule stating the the two largest parliamentary parties have to be Conservative and Labour.
It's a well known strategy - when you're successfully beating off an invader - to detonate a nuclear weapon on your own territory.
Everyone knows this.
Especially when you don't have one. That makes it an even more cunning strategy.
That just makes Ukraine's duplicitousness all the more mischievous. If countries without nukes can create false flags, then everyone's a threat and Russia will have to invade everyone because they're all going to nuke themselves ...
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups 3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
And Johnson will be far more motivated by stopping Sunak than in recovering the poisoned chalice of the top job.
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
He's required as Chancellor because trying to explain away five chancellors in a year to the financial markets would be harder than my former Principal found it explaining his decision to punch that parent in the face.
Whether that will save him if Johnson wins, bearing in mind that would send the markets into a tailspin anyway, I don't know.
From a Labour point of view. I don't think we really care whether it's Sunak, Mordaunt or Johnson - much of a muchness, even though they're all quite different characters. Each of the three have strengths and weaknesses, and all are beatable. If you could be so good as to go for Braverman or JRM, though, I'd be even more confident.
No, Al.
You must apply the Richie Benaud test to this. Ask yourself what the opposing Captain would most like you to do, and do the opposite.
Starmer would least like Sunak and/or Mordaunt. Boris would bring a broad grin to his face.
The others are too ridiculous to contemplate.
Don't agree. Boris would win back many of the white male w/c. Mordaunt is highly risky and could backfire badly. Sunak I'm less sure about.
Anyway, Richie Benaud, as a leg spinner, says - bowl them a googly! JRM.
If I was Starmer I would be laughing all the way to the election if Johnson was re-instated. The Tories would be a laughing stock - forcing one unsuitable PM out, only to replace him with someone incompetent, then immediately change their minds again? Hahaha! And a large chunk of MPs won't support him.
Mordaunt is untested. I'd like to see her run a big department for more than a few months. On the evidence of the first leadership election I don't think she cuts it. Big risk. I don't think I'd worry.
Sunak has shown he has the capability, but again he hasn't been tested in a big spending department. And a (different) large chunk of the party won't support him and will make life difficult for him. Probably the one Starmer would prefer not to have given the choice but even then I don't think he'll lose any sleep.
(Edited - corrected accidentally deleted words on Mordaunt)
Imagine if the Final is Boris v Sunak and Sunak does win with the members.
Just think how strong a position that would put him in - and how much it would instantly improve the reputation of the Conservative Party with the wider public.
Except the ones who voted for Boris rather than the Tories and might have come back in 2024.
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups 3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
Day ine of Sunak premiership 20 Spartans, Boris and Farage hold a press conference launching 'The New Boz Spartan Express Party'
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
He's required as Chancellor because trying to explain away five chancellors in a year to the financial markets would be harder than my former Principal found it explaining his decision to punch that parent in the face.
Whether that will save him if Johnson wins, bearing in mind that would send the markets into a tailspin anyway, I don't know.
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
He's required as Chancellor because trying to explain away five chancellors in a year to the financial markets would be harder than my former Principal found it explaining his decision to punch that parent in the face.
Whether that will save him if Johnson wins, bearing in mind that would send the markets into a tailspin anyway, I don't know.
@JM_Szuba JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
If this does become Rishi vs Boris in parliament then the chaos is about to get a lot worse. Because Boris will refuse to step aside and we would probably end up with a repeat performance:
A leader who doesn't command the confidence of his MPs.
Plus potentially resignations, defections, and the possibility of tory MPs refusing to support the Gov't in a vote of no confidence.
It will be one hell of a mess.
I think the Conservative Parliamentary Party, and the wider membership, long ago pressed self-destruct. I can't see the factions uniting with a sensible plan in the space of one week.
@JM_Szuba JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
If this does become Rishi vs Boris in parliament then the chaos is about to get a lot worse. Because Boris will refuse to step aside and we would probably end up with a repeat performance:
A leader who doesn't command the confidence of his MPs.
Plus potentially resignations, defections, and the possibility of tory MPs refusing to support the Gov't in a vote of no confidence.
It will be one hell of a mess.
I think the Conservative Parliamentary Party, and the wider membership, long ago pressed self-destruct.
I think it would swing the other way. Conservative MPs would have far less scope to be disloyal and with isolated exceptions, would have to swallow any antipathy they have towards Johnson.
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups 3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
The special thing about scenario 2 is that, because the vote is being run online, it probably wouldn't be that hard for the process to be compromised so that there was genuine doubt about the result.
Having the member's vote be online is literally the worst option that could be chosen to run a leadership election. The most acceptable way to avoid that from happening is for one of the candidates to receive 258 nominations, so that they're the only one to reach the 100 MP threshold.
If this does become Rishi vs Boris in parliament then the chaos is about to get a lot worse. Because Boris will refuse to step aside and we would probably end up with a repeat performance:
A leader who doesn't command the confidence of his MPs.
Plus potentially resignations, defections, and the possibility of tory MPs refusing to support the Gov't in a vote of no confidence.
It will be one hell of a mess.
I think the Conservative Parliamentary Party, and the wider membership, long ago pressed self-destruct.
I think it would swing the other way. Conservative MPs would have far less scope to be disloyal and with isolated exceptions, would have to swallow any antipathy they have towards Johnson.
No chance William. Too much history. Too much insider knowledge. It will cause mayhem.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
There has to be a crass joke somewhere about BJs being wonderful… but when you had one five minutes ago, another one is the last thing you want right now.
@JM_Szuba JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
@karlmccartney One of the main reasons for the largest majority I have achieved after various General Elections I have stood in, in Lincoln, is because @BorisJohnson was our Prime Minister & Leader of @Conservatives & promised to deliver Brexit. Many of my constituents want him back. I do too.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Peelite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Peelite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Heretical thought: I don't think Hunt is required as Chancellor unless the winner is in the right-wing camp, which seems to be a beaten docket this time.
He's required as Chancellor because trying to explain away five chancellors in a year to the financial markets would be harder than my former Principal found it explaining his decision to punch that parent in the face.
Whether that will save him if Johnson wins, bearing in mind that would send the markets into a tailspin anyway, I don't know.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Liz Truss - the only British Prime Minister whose tenure occurred wholly within one meteorological season.
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups 3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
Scenario 2 is the only one that gives the Tories a future, but is the least likely, IMO.
@JM_Szuba JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Liz Truss - the only British Prime Minister whose tenure occurred wholly within one meteorological season.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Of above group, think Earl of Bute is closest to being political soulmate to Liz Truss.
Though of course his Lordship famously had a close, personal relationship with KGIII.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Poor George Canning, knocked off his perch. Although his premiership was merely a short epilogue to the rest of his long and illustrious career - if the only thing you know about Canning was that he was, until this year, the shortest-tenured British PM then you really don't know him at all.
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups
3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
Scenario 2 is the only one that gives the Tories a future, but is the least likely, IMO.
My money is on Johnson although not much of it. I can't see him standing aside for a Rishi coronation given how much he loathes him and bears a grudge.
The other consideration is just how much sentiment is turning very quickly against the rich. Andy Burnham was calling today for a wealth supertax and, with the luxury goods companies smashing it (Hermes smashed consensus today), the idea of a rich ex-hedge fund manager taking power is going to go down like a bucket of sick. Farage's comment about the global elites shows where things are heading.
Just reflecting that I was on holiday in early July when finally things came to a head and Boris was forced out. Since then the "government" has been in a constant state of either crisis or stasis and almost no actual governing has been going on, and they aren't finished yet.
It's a good job nothing important has been going on...
@karlmccartney One of the main reasons for the largest majority I have achieved after various General Elections I have stood in, in Lincoln, is because @BorisJohnson was our Prime Minister & Leader of @Conservatives & promised to deliver Brexit. Many of my constituents want him back. I do too.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Poor George Canning, knocked off his perch. Although his premiership was merely a short epilogue to the rest of his long and illustrious career - if the only thing you know about Canning was that he was, until this year, the shortest-tenured British PM then you really don't know him at all.
Lord Canning was insufferably woke. For example, in opposing the Holy Alliance - the nerve!
from his wiki page
Canning was Foreign Secretary (1807–1809) under the Duke of Portland. Canning was the dominant figure in the cabinet and directed the seizure of the Danish fleet in 1807 to assure Britain's naval supremacy over Napoleon. In 1809, he was wounded in a duel with his rival Lord Castlereagh and was shortly thereafter passed over as a successor to the Duke of Portland in favour of Spencer Perceval. He rejected overtures to serve as Foreign Secretary again because of Castlereagh's presence in Perceval's Cabinet, and he remained out of high office until after Perceval was assassinated in 1812.
Canning subsequently served under the new Prime Minister the Earl of Liverpool as British Ambassador to Portugal (1814–1816), President of the Board of Control (1816–1821) and Foreign Secretary and Leader of the House of Commons (1822–1827). King George IV disliked Canning, and there were efforts to frustrate his foreign policies. Canning, however, successfully built wide public support for his policies. The historian Paul Hayes argues that he scored major achievements in diplomatic relations regarding Spain and Portugal, by helping to guarantee the independence of the American colonies of Portugal and Spain. His policies ensured a major trading advantage to British merchants and supported the Americans' Monroe Doctrine. The historian G. M. Trevelyan stated:
For five years England had been guided by the genius of Canning, and seldom have so much brilliancy and so much wisdom combined to produce such happy results. The constitutional medium through which that genius worked was the loyal friendship of the prime minister, Lord Liverpool.[1]
When Lord Liverpool resigned in April 1827, Canning was chosen to succeed him as Prime Minister, ahead of the Duke of Wellington and Sir Robert Peel. Both of them declined to serve under Canning, and the Tories split between Peel and Wellington's Ultra-Tories and the Canningites. Canning then invited several Whigs to join his cabinet. However, his health collapsed, and he died in office in August 1827, after 119 days in office, the second shortest tenure ever of any British Prime Minister to have completed their period in office, as of October 2022.
If this does become Rishi vs Boris in parliament then the chaos is about to get a lot worse. Because Boris will refuse to step aside and we would probably end up with a repeat performance:
A leader who doesn't command the confidence of his MPs.
Plus potentially resignations, defections, and the possibility of tory MPs refusing to support the Gov't in a vote of no confidence.
It will be one hell of a mess.
I think the Conservative Parliamentary Party, and the wider membership, long ago pressed self-destruct. I can't see the factions uniting with a sensible plan in the space of one week.
Agreed. There's now a real risk of the party fragmenting, and even if it manages to row in behind one leader there's the small matter of the budget. Hunt will have to propose tax rises and spending cuts, but he's going to really struggle to find a combination of measures that will narrow the deficit enough and that his own MPs will also vote for. The strop over the triple lock is just the beginning.
If Boris comes back then the Tories deserve everything they get. I used to be a Tory member. I have never voted Labour. This would probably push me to do it!
@JM_Szuba JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
Reportedly, at least one Tory MP (Chope) has now gone so far as to call for a General Election, apparently branding his own party as "ungovernable." All the wheels have now come off the wagon and it's sinking into the mud.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Liz Truss - the only British Prime Minister whose tenure occurred wholly within one meteorological season.
Reportedly, at least one Tory MP (Chope) has now gone so far as to call for a General Election, apparently branding his own party as "ungovernable." All the wheels have now come off the wagon and it's sinking into the mud.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Well Truss' place in history is at least assured.
She will forever be the answer to that tricky pub quiz and Pointless question, who was the shortest serving PM in UK history?
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Well Truss' place in history is at least assured.
She will forever be the answer to that tricky pub quiz and Pointless question, who was the shortest serving PM in UK history?
She might have lost the record by Christmas. It rather depends on whether your party picks a vaguely credible successor or a total nut.
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
Three months ago Johnson was persona non grata, now he is the returning prodigal son.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Liz Truss - the only British Prime Minister whose tenure occurred wholly within one meteorological season.
Exchange rate
Truss 1p Canning 2p Shelburne 5p Grafton 10p Gordon Brown 20p Disraeli 50p Earl of Liverpool £1
If Boris comes back then the Tories deserve everything they get. I used to be a Tory member. I have never voted Labour. This would probably push me to do it!
Don't do it. Your private parts will fall off and you will no longer understand gender.
The odds on Boris are still good. It is this because of this phenomenon where people can't believe it will happen because it is so ridiculous, like Trump and Brexit.
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
Look at the other two (likely) choices:
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6" - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Comments
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@NOELreports
Zelenskyy, in an address to the European Council, said that the Russian forces have mined the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and calls for an international mission which needs to ensure the demining of the dam.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1583153207660142593
Can't help but wonder whether all the lurid threats about nuclear weapons are a bit of Overton window shifting so that we accept non-nuclear destruction as not as bad as it could have been.
Unless the sixth Village Person is the look he is going for.
But yes, they were all removed by elections and remained party leader (except Gladstone, who resigned in a huff in 1874 before returning in a bigger huff in 1878). The only party leader who ever came back for a second go in the twentieth century was Bonar Law in 1922, and he'd resigned for health reasons.
Edit - I'm not including the early Labour leadership system where they didn't have a leader but one member of the party was elected as spokesman for one year. If you do include that MacDonald, Adams, Clynes and Henderson all had second goes.
He'll have been out of Downing Street for part of Autumn, and that's it. Ridiculous.
#PM4PM
#Boris4Bantz
That would be a humiliation he really couldn't explain away.
I will give you some ranges to consider
<20
20-40
40+
Sunak - PM
Mordaunt - Foreign Secretary and Deputy PM
Hunt - Chancellor
Wallace - Defence Sec
I think that should deliver the tories some sort of credibility to go into an election, probably next year.
All the others do. Initially, at least.
1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1
2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups
3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
Chancellor - Hunt
Home Secretary - Gove
Foreign Secretary - Zahawi
Defence - Wallace
Business - Baker
I don't know what 'wing' people like Jayawardena, Donelan or Trevelyan are on.
Whether that will save him if Johnson wins, bearing in mind that would send the markets into a tailspin anyway, I don't know.
(NOT a reference to ANY PBers mom!)
Given his general approach has been vindicated vs Truss, that can only go up.
I think the other candidates will struggle unless the field is very narrow.
JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.
"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
https://twitter.com/JM_Szuba/status/1583152559144910848
A leader who doesn't command the confidence of his MPs.
Plus potentially resignations, defections, and the possibility of tory MPs refusing to support the Gov't in a vote of no confidence.
It will be one hell of a mess.
I think the Conservative Parliamentary Party, and the wider membership, long ago pressed self-destruct. I can't see the factions uniting with a sensible plan in the space of one week.
AND I repeat my suggest for a real (as opposed to "true') Government of All the Muppets.
Lead of course by Kermit - the Grand Old Frog. (Whom I envision wearing a Gladstonian wing collar.)
With Miss Piggy as Deputy PM and also Chief Whip. (She'd make current DPM look like a tobacco-flavored marshmellow.)
Having the member's vote be online is literally the worst option that could be chosen to run a leadership election. The most acceptable way to avoid that from happening is for one of the candidates to receive 258 nominations, so that they're the only one to reach the 100 MP threshold.
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022)
George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827)
Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828)
Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923)
Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757)
Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783)
Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763)
Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964)
Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807)
Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
I’m sorry.
@karlmccartney
One of the main reasons for the largest majority I have achieved after various General Elections I have stood in, in Lincoln, is because @BorisJohnson was our Prime Minister & Leader of @Conservatives & promised to deliver Brexit.
Many of my constituents want him back.
I do too.
https://twitter.com/karlmccartney/status/1583144223670697985
Ok, it's time for my coat.
Though of course his Lordship famously had a close, personal relationship with KGIII.
LT & KCIII? Not so much!
Privileges committee reports.
BoJo resigns in disgrace (again)
The other consideration is just how much sentiment is turning very quickly against the rich. Andy Burnham was calling today for a wealth supertax and, with the luxury goods companies smashing it (Hermes smashed consensus today), the idea of a rich ex-hedge fund manager taking power is going to go down like a bucket of sick. Farage's comment about the global elites shows where things are heading.
It's a good job nothing important has been going on...
7:27pm: Said minister is now in a bar.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1583157716528177153
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1583163081365995520
from his wiki page
Canning was Foreign Secretary (1807–1809) under the Duke of Portland. Canning was the dominant figure in the cabinet and directed the seizure of the Danish fleet in 1807 to assure Britain's naval supremacy over Napoleon. In 1809, he was wounded in a duel with his rival Lord Castlereagh and was shortly thereafter passed over as a successor to the Duke of Portland in favour of Spencer Perceval. He rejected overtures to serve as Foreign Secretary again because of Castlereagh's presence in Perceval's Cabinet, and he remained out of high office until after Perceval was assassinated in 1812.
Canning subsequently served under the new Prime Minister the Earl of Liverpool as British Ambassador to Portugal (1814–1816), President of the Board of Control (1816–1821) and Foreign Secretary and Leader of the House of Commons (1822–1827). King George IV disliked Canning, and there were efforts to frustrate his foreign policies. Canning, however, successfully built wide public support for his policies. The historian Paul Hayes argues that he scored major achievements in diplomatic relations regarding Spain and Portugal, by helping to guarantee the independence of the American colonies of Portugal and Spain. His policies ensured a major trading advantage to British merchants and supported the Americans' Monroe Doctrine. The historian G. M. Trevelyan stated:
For five years England had been guided by the genius of Canning, and seldom have so much brilliancy and so much wisdom combined to produce such happy results. The constitutional medium through which that genius worked was the loyal friendship of the prime minister, Lord Liverpool.[1]
When Lord Liverpool resigned in April 1827, Canning was chosen to succeed him as Prime Minister, ahead of the Duke of Wellington and Sir Robert Peel. Both of them declined to serve under Canning, and the Tories split between Peel and Wellington's Ultra-Tories and the Canningites. Canning then invited several Whigs to join his cabinet. However, his health collapsed, and he died in office in August 1827, after 119 days in office, the second shortest tenure ever of any British Prime Minister to have completed their period in office, as of October 2022.
She will forever be the answer to that tricky pub quiz and Pointless question, who was the shortest serving PM in UK history?
https://twitter.com/WashburneAlex/status/1583145276151189504
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
It's a funny old game Saint.
LAB: 57% (+8)
CON: 22% (-6)
LDM: 7% (-3)
SNP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
RFM: 3% (+1)
Via
@Omnisis
, 20 Oct.
Changes w/ 13-14 Oct.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1583171971944062976
Truss 1p
Canning 2p
Shelburne 5p
Grafton 10p
Gordon Brown 20p
Disraeli 50p
Earl of Liverpool £1
Sunak won't hold your seat, not of you're North of Watford anyway
Jacob Rees-Moog announces his support for new general election in '22.
A re-run of the general election of 1722. Given that the first vote was clearly rigged against the Tories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1722_British_general_election
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6"
- Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Not exactly spoilt for choice .