Rishi now odds on for the PM job – politicalbetting.com
What a day and, as seemed likely overnight, Truss decided to call it a day and now we have another CON leadership contest with it all being sorted this month.
"RULES FOR THE ELECTION OF THE LEADER 1 The Leader shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members. 2 A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent Leadership election."
Definition of 'consequent': adjective 1. following as a result or effect.
This leadership election follows as a clear effect of Johnson's resignation.
You're welcome.
Much as i would like to agree with you I think this interpretation is wrong. If the idea was they could not stand in future elections I would have thought they would have used the word 'subsequent'. Consequent seems to me to refer only to the immediate election after resignation.
But fpor the sake of the country I hope you are right in your interpretation.
I have no idea how many Johnson supporters there are on the 1922 committee but if a majority want to block him they are free to interpret the word 'consequently' that way.
Schedule 2 para 3. "Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board."
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
"5:32pm 'Campaign is go!' One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
100 nomination threshold If you get three candidates, rather than the lowest simply going out, you vote again Unless the gap is less than 5 MPs, the second candidate is required to drop out.
What? They believe in FPTP, and have used the supplementary vote as well.
Fingers crossed this is a lark, and the idea is they are confident it will be a coronation, but can claim that, had MPs not been unified, there would have been a member vote.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
I think it could be close. How many wanted him all along (given that was most of Truss's pitch, call it 30-50), and how many regret his going, and how many think since they are losing anyway might as well let him own it?
I think it could be close. How many wanted him all along (given that was most of Truss's pitch, call it 30-50), and how many regret his going, and how many think since they are losing anyway might as well let him own it?
The “fuck it let’s roll the dice, he does have something” factor.
What I meant to post was, first since Churchill to have weekly audiences with 2 different monarchs, then I obviously overruled my subconscious which knew why the shortened version didn't work.
With a threshold of 100 I don't think Boris gets there. Rishi and Penny in the final 2, then Penny for the win.
Boris Johnson received 114 MP votes in the first round of the 2019 leadership election and there are more MPs this time around. I think it's possible.
Has anything much happened between times?
As I'm sure @HYUFD would tell you if he was around, Johnson won the largest election victory for the Tories since 1987. Given they are 30pp behind right now I could see why that might sway a few people. I imagine loads of party members will be bending their MPs ears over the weekend on why they should bring Boris back too.
What I meant to post was, first since Churchill to have weekly audiences with 2 different monarchs, then I obviously overruled my subconscious which knew why the shortened version didn't work.
Sympathies. Difficult for me to fully comprehend what you're feeling as I of course never make mistakes. ;-)
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.
"5:32pm 'Campaign is go!' One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
Not being a lefty and being underwhelmed by both of them, I wonder which one Labour fear more. My instinct is they have so much ammunition to use against Sunak that they would prefer him. But is that right?
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
So Mourdaunt or Sunak need to conspire to ensure one of them gets nearly 300 nominations. Doable.
Sunak, then, since that is Brownian.
That racism detector bloke will be along about the slur against Brown chaps.
The part of me that loves to watch the world burn would enjoy the (probably 5-20% probability) scenario of Boris coming back, seeming to trail through the election campaign, but then it being his face at 10pm on the night when the exit poll comes out.
Almost worth it to watch Twitter explode. It would be like 2015 x 100.
Made a joke yesterday that some will claim all this was orchestrated by Sunak.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.
The online vote of the venerables will not take place imo.
I tend to agree except in one case. The nightmare/total chaos scenario is Boris scrapes past 100 nominations and gets into second place with Rishi getting 215+ in the final indicative ballot and Boris only just getting over 130. I think Boris would have no problem taking it to the members and beating Rishi.
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
The members need to realise that MPs are not there to do their bidding. Selecting a Prime minister who will not command a majority in Parliament isn't going to work. How many Tory MPs have no confidenced Johnson or called for him to resign?
Nom threshold will be 100 - so three candidates max
Concludes Fri 28 Nov Noms close 2pm Monday MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?) Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
If the threshold is 100 there will not be any 'MP stages', just one vote by MPs - or no MP votes if only two candidates reach 100.
Indeed. Brady said "all the MP stages", for some reason
I think he said that they would have an MPs vote between the final two candidates. Not sure.
Yes, Guardian live blog have confirmed that there will be an indicative MPs ballot between the final two candidates, before it goes to the members.
Ah. So there won’t be an online vote. The runner up of that will almost certainly be persuaded to pull out.
Made a joke yesterday that some will claim all this was orchestrated by Sunak.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.
I think the 20 years thing might be about right. Add another 10 to that if the Clown makes a come back
Comments
ETA: For me not being pipped to first. Could also be for Rishi though, if he loses out this time
And, more obviously, third time lucky for the Tory Party perhaps, if they pick someone sensible this time.
Edit: oops - bad omen for Rishi!
Schedule 2 para 3.
"Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board."
Boris? Leader again? Okay.
Well, if Micky Fab thinks it's a good idea, maybe it is.
Concludes Fri 28 Nov
Noms close 2pm Monday
MPs narrow down to two candidates - all MP stages on the Monday (?)
Then member stages - quick binding online vote if there are two candidates
'Campaign is go!'
One supporter of Boris Johnson says his campaign to return to run the Tory party is now up and running, writes Christopher Hope."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/#update-20221020-1732
What could possibly go wrong......?
If you get three candidates, rather than the lowest simply going out, you vote again
Unless the gap is less than 5 MPs, the second candidate is required to drop out.
What? They believe in FPTP, and have used the supplementary vote as well.
- Berry confirms there will be online vote of the Conservative membership that wraps up end of next week https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1583134482793893889/photo/1
Fingers crossed this is a lark, and the idea is they are confident it will be a coronation, but can claim that, had MPs not been unified, there would have been a member vote.
Edit: Beaten to it, but screw it, I'm leaving it up.
Once down to Final 2, there won't be time for an opinion poll of members to be done before most members vote.
I think they should wait and see what happens with Boris first.
Rishi 137
Liz 113
Penny 105
Presumably Rishi and Penny get the nomimations, how do Liz's backers split? A lot of them were BoRIsWOzRobbED, but enough?
Five in six say Liz Truss was right to resign today
Right 84%
Wrong 10%
Don't know 6% https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1583136890404102144/photo/1
Eleni Courea
@elenicourea
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8m
Graham Brady + Jake Berry joint statement
— Nominations to be Tory leader close 2pm Monday — need 100 nominations
— Tory members get online vote
— Contest concludes next Friday 28th
— There will be one broadcast event so the public can hear from the final two
With members getting a vote - it's going to be Bozo unless less than 100 MPs nominate him.
“I have breached the ministerial code, and I believe in taking responsibility for my mistakes. Therefore I have no option but to resign.”
Suella Braverman, Thursday:
“You should definitely make me Prime Minister.”
What I meant to post was, first since Churchill to have weekly audiences with 2 different monarchs, then I obviously overruled my subconscious which knew why the shortened version didn't work.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs
So in theory could be three candidates come Monday. Who can get to 100 that quickly?
Rishi (definitely)
Penny (maybe)
Party's right wing will have to decide if they want to Bring Back Boris or back someone else (Badenoch? Braverman?) They can't do both.
That is a good point re Boris. The nutjob vote may be split, and I imagine the sane vote will go overwhelmingly to Rishi this time.
Fingers crossed...
The only safe option is to nuke it from space...
Presumably it's "do you want to live in a quasi-fascist, police state?"
Almost worth it to watch Twitter explode. It would be like 2015 x 100.
That is genuinely the take of by (I swear real) Boris fan relative (whose first vote, ever, at 59, was the Brexit vote). Other highlights that the whole world is in crisis, they cannot stand Starmer (surprisingly strong on that one I felt), and Truss did what people wanted and the MPs stabbed her in the back (I'd say it was the front), and the Tories will be out of power for 20 years.
I should contact my Corbynite relatives, they're probably equally annoyed, for different reasons.
Yes, I can do that.
Because of fraud.
(The rumour not the country - calm down!)