🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Ok.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
I always assume that my posts that are not responded to are so devastatingly good there is nothing to add (and that the like button is not working).
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE. To my mind, That seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
If Farage keeps sticking his fascist head up, the media that opposes his nastiness needs to start quoting some of his positions on Putin, the world leader he said he "most admired"
LOL. Look I know you don't like him and neither do I very much. But referring to him as a fascist just makes you look stupid.
Hate to say it but I actually really wouldn’t be surprised if she is being kept away from things deliberately now because it is all too much.
I think she and her team will be spending the next day or so desperately working out how she extracts herself from office. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone deputises for her at PMQs.
I did flag for this several months ago. I think it’s why Wallace refused to run. This was a suicide mission.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Ok.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
I always assume that my posts that are not responded to are so devastatingly good there is nothing to add (and that the like button is not working).
In that case, you won't want me to respond to it or give you a like.
Why are you so concerned by Farage's dipsh*ttery. He is a political opponent of yours. Jeremy Hunt is your man. Farage is your enemy.
Opponent. Not enemy.
Enemy is an appropriate description of Nigel Farage for anyone who believes in fair, centrist democratic politics that align with the best traditions of this country. Farage is a right-wing divisive populist in the mould of Donald Trump, who, like Trump draws the admiration and support of Putin. He is therefore an enemy to the British way of life IMO.
Nah that's rubbish. Just because you don't like someone does not make them an enemy. You don't get to define what the best traditions of this country are any more than I do. And he certainly isn't an enemy to the British way of life - whatever the hell you might think that might be.
It is true that I don't like Farage. I also don't much like Jacob Rees-Mogg, but the latter is almost certainly not a fascist, whereas the former almost certainly is. Rees-Mogg is not also not an apologist for Putin or a close bum-sucker for Donald Trump.
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
If Farage keeps sticking his fascist head up, the media that opposes his nastiness needs to start quoting some of his positions on Putin, the world leader he said he "most admired"
LOL. Look I know you don't like him and neither do I very much. But referring to him as a fascist just makes you look stupid.
He's not ideal. But of course hes not a Tory. Or Starmer/Rayner/Streeting/Dodds/Reeves
Early in 2016, with the approach of the European Union referendum, Boris Johnson was wavering between Leave and Remain, and Wallace advised him strongly to support Remain, as taking the Leave side would mean being allied with "clowns".
Latest @IpsosUK for @standardnews shows Labour with its first lead on best policies for managing the economy for 15 years, as Conservative party image slips further and Labour seen as more ready for Government. (1/6)
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
Yep. This is spot on. I do think there is a danger the right side of politics will fragment badly over the next few years but none of the three you mention really have much chance of taking any advantage of it. Tice would have the best chance because he does not outrage anyone yet. But that is probably only going to help him until he gets more media time and then the lack of a single vision and a political narrative covering all aspects of society and government will do for him.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I really expected some bounce after Hunt got brought in . If the Tories don’t pull the plug on Truss after that then they really are delusional.
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
There is an old proverb that is apt: "Be careful what you wish for. You might get it."
Or, the only thing worse than not having a dream is having your dream come true.
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
No we aren't, if the Tories betray Brexit then that is it for them. Farage's party will replace them, you have no idea of the fury and wrath of the average Leave voting Conservative if a Hunt government restores free movement and rejoins the single market.
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
Nobody is betraying Brexit. Brexit is done! Even Starmer's Labour have embraced that single act of halfwittery.
But what was the definition of Brexit? There was no mention of jettisoning everything until May decided "Brexit means Brexit", without knowing what that meant. And Johnson discovered that demanding the hardest of hard Brexits would allow him to choose some expensive wallpaper.
People are getting more concerned about paying the mortgage than they are about receiving their blue passport. Brexit has been trumped by the fear of poverty.
"Betray Brexit", given that we have left, is one of the more half witted concepts in British politics, which is not exactly short on half witted concepts.
Is Brexit some sort of deity that we have to bow down to forever ? HYUFD already recognises one deity; why does he require another?
You need to add the King, and the Party Leader - though he seems to have been going all disloyal and homoousion/homoioousion on the latter of late.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
Why are you so concerned by Farage's dipsh*ttery. He is a political opponent of yours. Jeremy Hunt is your man. Farage is your enemy.
Opponent. Not enemy.
Enemy is an appropriate description of Nigel Farage for anyone who believes in fair, centrist democratic politics that align with the best traditions of this country. Farage is a right-wing divisive populist in the mould of Donald Trump, who, like Trump draws the admiration and support of Putin. He is therefore an enemy to the British way of life IMO.
Nah that's rubbish. Just because you don't like someone does not make them an enemy. You don't get to define what the best traditions of this country are any more than I do. And he certainly isn't an enemy to the British way of life - whatever the hell you might think that might be.
It is true that I don't like Farage. I also don't much like Jacob Rees-Mogg, but the latter is almost certainly not a fascist, whereas the former almost certainly is. Rees-Mogg is not also not an apologist for Putin or a close bum-sucker for Donald Trump.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
My 86 year old MiL is sitting in her modern house covered in blankets and cold but too scared to put her heating on because of the hysterical nonsense in the media led by Martin Lewis. It was irresponsible.
Correct me where I am mistaken, I think it goes like this. Martin Lewis put an idea out there into a vacuum where no other idea existed. Lib Dems agreed with it, then Labour - I recall a period of headers from TSE boasting how Starmer had shot the Tory fox by pushing this Martin Lewis scheme and benefitting in the polls from that. Meanwhile, throughout the summer, what was Boris government and UK government treasury and two teams of competing politicians locked in election oneupmanship actually working on in the background all that time?
Perhaps the lesson here is exactly why Martin Lewis, who doesn’t have to answer to electorate if something goes wrong, such as paying for it spooks the markets, had so much influence - I think it’s if there is only one plan on the table it becomes, like in galaxy quest “we’ll do that then.” When you would like to think all the great offices of state, a whole class of pushy politicians genuinely caring about the national interest, could have put more work in to being more imaginative and sharper in a fluid situation than how this actually happened?
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I really expected some bounce after Hunt got brought in . If the Tories don’t pull the plug on Truss after that then they really are delusional.
I didn’t. Yes there’s a grownup trying to fix things but if anything it reinforces the fact that there was something to fix. And that will remind voters of the person who broke things.
They have to be rid of Truss to recover anything IMHO.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I really expected some bounce after Hunt got brought in . If the Tories don’t pull the plug on Truss after that then they really are delusional.
Hunt came in on the 14th, the majority of the fieldwork will be before that happened/sunk in, although the Redfield certain people are pleasuring themselves silly over at 5 will have been all yesterday
Amazing to remember that the Conservative Party didn't go for Hunt in 2019.
Interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had the Conservatives gone for Hunt in 2019.
I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
No chance. The Conservative Party, not to mention the country, would be in a massively better place than it is now. As I wrote at the time:
The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.
The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.
If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
23% is an inexplicably high Tory score
dont forget much of their core vote is probably unable to follow whats going on now
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
If Farage keeps sticking his fascist head up, the media that opposes his nastiness needs to start quoting some of his positions on Putin, the world leader he said he "most admired"
LOL. Look I know you don't like him and neither do I very much. But referring to him as a fascist just makes you look stupid.
I leave the accusation of looking stupid to those that were members of his party or voted for him, Richard.
I guess you don't think the insurrection inspiring Donald Trump is in any way a proto-fascist either? Farage looks like a fascist, sounds like a fascist and behaves like one. Just because he doesn't wear Mussolini's uniform does not mean he wouldn't like to if he could. No doubt Putin is a voice of reason too is he? You just keep your head permanently in the sand there dear friend.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
I think she’ll find it’s the EU’s ”preferred”. only plan:
My understanding from ScotGov is the reason Scotland “would not qualify” to adopt the Euro is related to not having a Scottish currency and size of deficit. But FM says joining Euro isn’t her preferred plan anyway.
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
Edith Cresson was French PM for less than a year and was regarded as a disaster but later had a second career as a European Commissioner which also ended in disgrace. Thanks to Brexit, that option isn't there for Liz Truss.
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
23% is an inexplicably high Tory score
dont forget much of their core vote is probably unable to follow whats going on now
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
23% is an inexplicably high Tory score
dont forget much of their core vote is probably unable to follow whats going on now
Or, they’ve watched Liz totally soil herself, and thought, “she’s just like me!”
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
23% is an inexplicably high Tory score
dont forget much of their core vote is probably unable to follow whats going on now
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
Edith Cresson was French PM for less than a year and was regarded as a disaster but later had a second career as a European Commissioner which also ended in disgrace. Thanks to Brexit, that option isn't there for Liz Truss.
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
They’ve buggered Britain for a decade or more.
I think there is a modern form of fascism and Farage personifies it. And I am not talking about Nazism, I am talking about Italian fascism. Trump and Farage are really not that far away from El Duce's right-wing populism, particularly when in the context of the time in between. As you say, I am quite sure a lot of Faragists would be quite happy with the Brown Shirts were they born into a different time
Cracking statistic, which tells us how deep is the stuff we're in.
Overall, taxes as a share of GDP are set to rise to 36% by the end of the parliament – up from 33% at the start. This would bring the UK’s tax take up to it’s highest sustained level since 1950-51. https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1581963775263244289
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
One thing is for certain, that the lib dems will poll more than 7% in a general election, these recent polls are for the birds
Cracking statistic, which tells us how deep is the stuff we're in.
Overall, taxes as a share of GDP are set to rise to 36% by the end of the parliament – up from 33% at the start. This would bring the UK’s tax take up to it’s highest sustained level since 1950-51. https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1581963775263244289
Yes, but it needs to happen. Truss & Kwarteng's idea was to lower this - to which the debt markets said YOU WHAT ?
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
If Farage keeps sticking his fascist head up, the media that opposes his nastiness needs to start quoting some of his positions on Putin, the world leader he said he "most admired"
LOL. Look I know you don't like him and neither do I very much. But referring to him as a fascist just makes you look stupid.
I leave the accusation of looking stupid to those that were members of his party or voted for him, Richard.
I guess you don't think the insurrection inspiring Donald Trump is in any way a proto-fascist either? Farage looks like a fascist, sounds like a fascist and behaves like one. Just because he doesn't wear Mussolini's uniform does not mean he wouldn't like to if he could. No doubt Putin is a voice of reason too is he? You just keep your head permanently in the sand there dear friend.
Not at all. But Farage is neither Putin nor Trump.
Again you just make yourself look rather sad and obsessed.
Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
As she has resigned Chas need not take her advice.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
I heard the words he was using when interviewed and he certainly is NOT feeling chastened. Like the British people he is well aware who is responsible for thie shambles. The 'high ups' are not likely to be so high up for much longer
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Ok.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
I always assume that my posts that are not responded to are so devastatingly good there is nothing to add (and that the like button is not working).
In that case, you won't want me to respond to it or give you a like.
Depends whether your like button is broken or not.
Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
We need a word for all these moonbats who might not be “fascist” in the strictest sense, but would be shouting hoorah for the brown shirts to the rafters were it 1936.
They’ve buggered Britain for a decade or more.
Poujadist?
Falangist
Yes, the Faragistas.
Not just Nigel, Aaron, Tice and Fox. But pretty much the whole ERG, nutters like Patel and Braverman, the dodgy think tanks, twat “businessmen” like Tim Martin and Lord Digby, the media outriders like Harry Cole, SeanT of this parish, the whole gammonati.
You just know that, we’re it 1936, they would be looking longingly at the rule of strong men on the Continent and fondly remembering the time they urinated on a docker during the General Strike.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
One thing is for certain, that the lib dems will poll more than 7% in a general election, these recent polls are for the birds
Agreed.
Tremendous fun, but not remotely related to how actual piles of votes will look.
For one thing, if it still looks like Lab Landslide going into the final week, an awful lot of folk will feel safe voting for their real first choices, especially Green and LD.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-3) Lab 55% (+4) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 15% (+3) Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022 Sample: 1,050 GB adults (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
That's the second poll to put Labour on 55%, and the seventh to give a lead of 30+%
Does today's announcement calm things, or does it simply make Truss look weaker, and the void in Downing Street larger?
Comments
Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 23% (-3)
Lab 55% (+4)
Lib Dem 7% (-2)
Other 15% (+3)
Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022
Sample: 1,050 GB adults
(Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1
Economically (globally) the situation and the commons arithmetic are very very similar
I think it’s why Wallace refused to run.
This was a suicide mission.
I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
Get him in, already!
It's fine.
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1581985836069179395?s=20&t=7lwHz9rg8hAEyS5k0X0wQA
Early in 2016, with the approach of the European Union referendum, Boris Johnson was wavering between Leave and Remain, and Wallace advised him strongly to support Remain, as taking the Leave side would mean being allied with "clowns".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Wallace_(politician)
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/1582012838276894722
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1582013972567715840
https://twitter.com/deltapolluk/status/1582012756974182400
So if Brady turns around and says nominations have to be in in 24 hours or similar I think we know they’ve got an agreed candidate.
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/jacob-rees-mogg-backing-trump-2937454
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/jacob-rees-mogg-held-meeting-with-steve-bannon-in-london
Perhaps the lesson here is exactly why Martin Lewis, who doesn’t have to answer to electorate if something goes wrong, such as paying for it spooks the markets, had so much influence - I think it’s if there is only one plan on the table it becomes, like in galaxy quest “we’ll do that then.” When you would like to think all the great offices of state, a whole class of pushy politicians genuinely caring about the national interest, could have put more work in to being more imaginative and sharper in a fluid situation than how this actually happened?
That’s very poor judgment.
Get rid.
After all, it worked so well for George Osborne. (Performs Ed Balls "flatlining" gesture.)
They have to be rid of Truss to recover anything IMHO.
The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.
The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.
If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
I guess you don't think the insurrection inspiring Donald Trump is in any way a proto-fascist either? Farage looks like a fascist, sounds like a fascist and behaves like one. Just because he doesn't wear Mussolini's uniform does not mean he wouldn't like to if he could. No doubt Putin is a voice of reason too is he? You just keep your head permanently in the sand there dear friend.
I have a suddenly hankering for one Mrs King of Nottinghamshire’s finest.
My understanding from ScotGov is the reason Scotland “would not qualify” to adopt the Euro is related to not having a Scottish currency and size of deficit. But FM says joining Euro isn’t her preferred plan anyway.
https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1581989809924759554
They’ve buggered Britain for a decade or more.
Overseas?
Sectioned?
Here's some more, if you want to thin your wallet:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/epl-and-la-liga-thoughts-17-october.html
(In my defence, the last month or so has seen some tasty bets on Truss/Hunt).
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582016336405766144
Mordaunt - “PM is detained on urgent business”!!
'To ask the Prime Minister to make a statement.'
As for the reply...oh dear oh dear oh dear.
He must be trembling in the foetal position under some rock at this point.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/17/jeremy-hunt-mini-budget-liz-truss-conservatives-labour-tax-uk-politics-live
Edit - and it's only getting more brutal.
Overall, taxes as a share of GDP are set to rise to 36% by the end of the parliament – up from 33% at the start. This would bring the UK’s tax take up to it’s highest sustained level since 1950-51.
https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1581963775263244289
That was quite a good riposte by Mordaunt 'He won't have his 15 minutes as PM.'
Again you just make yourself look rather sad and obsessed.
Penny just smashed Starmer out of the park.
Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.
Not just Nigel, Aaron, Tice and Fox.
But pretty much the whole ERG, nutters like Patel and Braverman, the dodgy think tanks, twat “businessmen” like Tim Martin and Lord Digby, the media outriders like Harry Cole, SeanT of this parish, the whole gammonati.
You just know that, we’re it 1936, they would be looking longingly at the rule of strong men on the Continent and fondly remembering the time they urinated on a docker during the General Strike.
Starmer asked questions about "WTF is going on" and Mordaunt is just trotting out old taunts about Brexit and Corbyn.
Absolutely nothing to do with the question asked. Pitiful.
Tremendous fun, but not remotely related to how actual piles of votes will look.
For one thing, if it still looks like Lab Landslide going into the final week, an awful lot of folk will feel safe voting for their real first choices, especially Green and LD.
Does today's announcement calm things, or does it simply make Truss look weaker, and the void in Downing Street larger?