Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
The Tories will seek to blame Truss for all this. But they as a party and a government are responsible. They all did it, not just her.
The Tory Party is guilty of enabling a lot of this lunacy. The fact Liz Truss was even spoken about as a credible PM shows you just how far they have gone off the deep end.
Listen to Hunt’s statement just now and compare and contrast to Liz’s press conference on Friday.
It is like a spell has been broken. We have been governed by people so patently unsuited to governing for so long.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
I also don't understand how a bunch of well paid employees working 5 days a week for a company becoming "contractors" working 5 days a week for a client now able to claim expenses and not pay employer's NI will generate growth.
If you look at @Richard_Tyndall 's post you will see a lot of oil and gas people have gone abroad to work or retired. And in the NHS a lot of locum staff are now working minimum shifts because there is zero incentive to do more.
The fact your bank abused IR35 for years to lower employment costs of technical staff doesn't mean that there isn't a benefit elsewhere in the economy from having flexible staff.
Another astonishing political week and its only 11.40 on Monday morning!
But never mind how and whether Truss can survive this, its whether the Tory Party can survive this. I'm 46 but already feel I'm going to now see out my days under a series of progressive governments of the centre left or worse as the economic liberal alternatives are splintered between the headbanging right and whatever manages to resurrect from the ashes of the official Conservative and Unionist Party. I expect millions of us will feel utterly disenfranchised and left out.
And barely a year ago it looked like we could still have a Boris second full term and maybe another Tory decade ahead of us, at least. Politics, eh?
The bankers bonus cap scrapping looks to have made it through unscathed 🥳
Does that cost the Treasury anything though?
Clearly bad politics mind
It will make a fortune for the treasury, both in increased compensation for existing employees, and in encouraging job relocation from other jurisdictions. The “bonus cap” was an EU initiative designed to hobble the City.
It may be symbolic but if global Britain is ever going to mean anything surely Rishi Sunak, former resident of silicon valley, who's ascent to the premiership would create enormous interest in the most populous country in the world* and was an original Brexiteer, would be the ideal advocate.
*It isn't clear if the Indian population now exceeds China's but it definitely will soon and for the rest of this century.
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations. Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn. HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years. Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts. So the question for markets: are those cuts *politically* deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
The Tories will seek to blame Truss for all this. But they as a party and a government are responsible. They all did it, not just her.
It's just the aftermath of Johnson, who promoted her, was her role model, set the standard for the politics of fantasy, untruth and disregard for experts, lowered our expectations such that Truss became imaginable as PM, and worked behind the scenes to make sure Sunak didn't get the job.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
While there's a strong argument for doing something, actually thinking about what that might be, and the best way to formulate it, takes time. An emergency fiscal statement probably isn't the best occasion.
Otherwise we just end up with another complicated mess in place for several years.
(Note that those on this blog who actually know much about this - which doesn't include me - don't seem to have reached any consensus on the matter.)
The issue is the post 2021 changes simply don't work for multiple reasons - which would take an hour or more to document...
Reverting to the pre-2017 version isn't perfect but it would be way better than it was especially if it was made clear the employers have some say in the working relationship..
What in reality we need is a whole new set of employment and tax employment laws that are relevant to the 21st rather than the 19th centuries. And that really would take time but the current system just isn't working (as demonstrated by a bank, shipping workers up here for 2 days next week because I'm not travelling down and they can't work out how to get me down there at their expense).
The fear was that with the UK out of the EU it would become very expensive. EU residents were not able to apply for it when we were in the EU.
If the visitor VAT-free shopping is ready by Christmas, I will be - well, my wife will be - keeping the UK retail sector alive!
More seriously, the difference between the Sunak and Kwarteng approaches to this one small issue, tells you all you need to know about why Kwarteng was right and Sunak wrong.
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations. Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn. HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years. Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts. So the question for markets: are those cuts *politically* deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
The energy price cap rejigging will probably be worth half of that number leaving just £14bn in cuts and tax rises requires. Some kind of tax rises targeting rentseeking/ers would probably raise half of that number too leaving just £7bn in spending cuts, not exactly earth shattering.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
Fracking was the canary in the mine for the Truss project.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
The Tories will seek to blame Truss for all this. But they as a party and a government are responsible. They all did it, not just her.
It's just the aftermath of Johnson, who promoted her, was her role model, set the standard for the politics of fantasy, untruth and disregard for experts, and worked behind the scenes to make sure Sunak didn't get the job.
Johnson AND Corbyn. Labour also get to share in the blame game. If they had not elected Corbyn then I doubt very much that Johnson would have had his 80 seat majority. He might even have lost from May's precarious position.
Did they previously outline what would happen to the financial sector corporate tax rate, is it still at 28% or will it go up to 34%? I think the latter might be a bit too high and could see established companies shift elsewhere.
If I was on the left of the Labour Party this would all worry me just as much as it worries the Moggs of this world. This is what the “grown ups” would have done to Corbyn, but for much smaller scale “sins”.
We’re now in for at least 10-15 years of very middle of the road policies whoever wins the various elections. Welcome back to soft consensus land.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
Fracking was the canary in the mine for the Truss project.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
Excuse me, TW, there are no morons on this Site. Entry qualifications are tough and strictly applied.
The bankers bonus cap scrapping looks to have made it through unscathed 🥳
Does that cost the Treasury anything though?
Clearly bad politics mind
No, it clearly makes the Treasury money, because it will get taxed at 40/45% income tax rather than 20% corporation tax.
Quite a lot of it will probably get taxed as a marginal rate of 60% or so given we’re keeping the 45p rate (and I assume the personal allowance cliff edge). Smart move.
If I was on the left of the Labour Party this would all worry me just as much as it worries the Moggs of this world. This is what the “grown ups” would have done to Corbyn, but for much smaller scale “sins”.
We’re now in for at least 10-15 years of very middle of the road policies whoever wins the various elections. Welcome back to soft consensus land.
10-15 years of soft consensus land sounds delightful to me.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
While there's a strong argument for doing something, actually thinking about what that might be, and the best way to formulate it, takes time. An emergency fiscal statement probably isn't the best occasion.
Otherwise we just end up with another complicated mess in place for several years.
(Note that those on this blog who actually know much about this - which doesn't include me - don't seem to have reached any consensus on the matter.)
The issue is the post 2021 changes simply don't work for multiple reasons - which would take an hour or more to document...
Reverting to the pre-2017 version isn't perfect but it would be way better than it was especially if it was made clear the employers have some say in the working relationship..
What in reality we need is a whole new set of employment and tax employment laws that are relevant to the 21st rather than the 19th centuries. And that really would take time but the current system just isn't working (as demonstrated by a bank, shipping workers up here for 2 days next week because I'm not travelling down and they can't work out how to get me down there at their expense).
I'm not sure we're disagreeing all that much... or at least I'm not really disagreeing with you. As I said, I'm pretty ignorant of the ins and outs on this, but it's obvious that reform is needed, and the precise nature of what that ought to be is disputed.
Getting tasty in the splinter group stakes. Again. I have no idea why I found out about this.
🚨 Breaking 🚨
Scottish Green Party Conference has just voted pass our motion to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over institutional transphobia.
Did they previously outline what would happen to the financial sector corporate tax rate, is it still at 28% or will it go up to 34%? I think the latter might be a bit too high and could see established companies shift elsewhere.
Where had Rishi set it? As I suspect that's where it now sits
I see Nicola Sturgeon & John Swinney have both welcomed the u-turn, but it does mean £460m less for Holyrood's budget (over three years)...at a point when it's still being hammered by inflation and the cost of public pay deals etc. Should still get £170m due to stamp duty cut...
An unflattering synopsis is that when AI models were only 'replicating' artistic works, developers were generally all for it, or at least not too bothered. But now Microsoft has effectively scraped all their GitHub repositories to feed into their Copilot AI coding tool, they're less happy. It doesn't help that the system seems to be regurgitating whole blocks of code (that is under open source licences) even when told not to.
The future is looking bleak for the low-end developer.
Getting tasty in the splinter group stakes. Again. I have no idea why I found out about this.
🚨 Breaking 🚨
Scottish Green Party Conference has just voted pass our motion to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over institutional transphobia.
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations. Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn. HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years. Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts. So the question for markets: are those cuts *politically* deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
The energy price cap rejigging will probably be worth half of that number leaving just £14bn in cuts and tax rises requires. Some kind of tax rises targeting rentseeking/ers would probably raise half of that number too leaving just £7bn in spending cuts, not exactly earth shattering.
Plus the fact that, if the markets are convinced that we are now back to sane government, they'll probably accept a bit of drift in the timetable, so Hunt might not need to fill the full fiscal hole quite so quickly.
If I was on the left of the Labour Party this would all worry me just as much as it worries the Moggs of this world. This is what the “grown ups” would have done to Corbyn, but for much smaller scale “sins”.
We’re now in for at least 10-15 years of very middle of the road policies whoever wins the various elections. Welcome back to soft consensus land.
10-15 years of soft consensus land sounds delightful to me.
It will for most of us on here, but eventually the bill comes due. Last time it was Brexit. This time, who knows?
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Getting tasty in the splinter group stakes. Again. I have no idea why I found out about this.
🚨 Breaking 🚨
Scottish Green Party Conference has just voted pass our motion to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over institutional transphobia.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
Fracking was the canary in the mine for the Truss project.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
Excuse me, TW, there are no morons on this Site. Entry qualifications are tough and strictly applied.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Wallace as FS with Mordaunt back at defence would be politically more stable.
But even without that it would be a better government than this lot.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
While there's a strong argument for doing something, actually thinking about what that might be, and the best way to formulate it, takes time. An emergency fiscal statement probably isn't the best occasion.
Otherwise we just end up with another complicated mess in place for several years.
(Note that those on this blog who actually know much about this - which doesn't include me - don't seem to have reached any consensus on the matter.)
The issue is the post 2021 changes simply don't work for multiple reasons - which would take an hour or more to document...
Reverting to the pre-2017 version isn't perfect but it would be way better than it was especially if it was made clear the employers have some say in the working relationship..
What in reality we need is a whole new set of employment and tax employment laws that are relevant to the 21st rather than the 19th centuries. And that really would take time but the current system just isn't working (as demonstrated by a bank, shipping workers up here for 2 days next week because I'm not travelling down and they can't work out how to get me down there at their expense).
I'm not sure we're disagreeing all that much... or at least I'm not really disagreeing with you. As I said, I'm pretty ignorant of the ins and outs on this, but it's obvious that reform is needed, and the precise nature of what that ought to be is disputed.
Oh, I don't think we are arguing my point was partly what needs to be fixed and partly the fact it's been known about for 15+ years and yet the Government has ignored multiple reports they have commissioned on the subject.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
Fracking was the canary in the mine for the Truss project.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
Excuse me, TW, there are no morons on this Site. Entry qualifications are tough and strictly applied.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
Fracking is long gone. It will just disappear into the ether of forgotten policies...
It’s part of the (very) lazy thinking “The US does it, we should do it!” completely ignoring details like geology or population density..
Fracking was the canary in the mine for the Truss project.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
These "they laughed then/are not laughing now" claims rarely stand up to scrutiny. Consensus was overwhelmingly that as per the learned @Richard_Tyndall it was just irrelevant bollocks and not going to happen.
Getting tasty in the splinter group stakes. Again. I have no idea why I found out about this.
🚨 Breaking 🚨
Scottish Green Party Conference has just voted pass our motion to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over institutional transphobia.
What will the membership say? They voted for a bonfire of the taxes; Jeremy now scoffs at their wretched little presumptions.
The membership should be put back in their box, they are totally unaccountable and should have no role in choosing a PM. (LOTO is possibly different)
If those that voted for Truss don't like it they can scuttle by to RefUk /UKIP from whence most of them came before they can inflict anymore damage on the country.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
An unflattering synopsis is that when AI models were only 'replicating' artistic works, developers were generally all for it, or at least not too bothered. But now Microsoft has effectively scraped all their GitHub repositories to feed into their Copilot AI coding tool, they're less happy. It doesn't help that the system seems to be regurgitating whole blocks of code (that is under open source licences) even when told not to.
The future is looking bleak for the low-end developer.
This concern (and evidence for it) was raised well over a year ago when Copilot was initially released.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Still not convinced Rishi is going to be able to hold the party together as PM. Also Hunt has just indefinitely stalled the income tax cut he was gunning for in 2024…
But hey, if the Tory Party can get behind him let’s go for it.
I suspect there IS a problem with the Treasury. It goes all the way back to Wilson if not further. I hope the recent shenanigans have not permanently damaged the ability to challenge.
I also think we have to give Andrew Bailey some credit. His reputation isn't exactly stellar and he was criticised for what he said about the pension funds having 72 hours to sort things out. But I respect him for that. It's not for the bank to be offering permanent liquidity to save the government from itself. It shows our institutions are capable of holding power to account.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Still not convinced Rishi is going to be able to hold the party together as PM. Also Hunt has just indefinitely stalled the income tax cut he was gunning for in 2024…
But hey, if the Tory Party can get behind him let’s go for it.
Who would Rishi lose within the party that actually matters - losing the nutters back to whatever party Farage forms is no great loss.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
I think it is clear that this is the Labour strategy. It's all "The Tories" not "Truss".
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Still not convinced Rishi is going to be able to hold the party together as PM. Also Hunt has just indefinitely stalled the income tax cut he was gunning for in 2024…
But hey, if the Tory Party can get behind him let’s go for it.
Who would Rishi lose within the party that actually matters - losing the nutters back to whatever party Farage forms is no great loss.
If the ERG and co don't accept reality, then the Tory party needs to split.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: it’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right. They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from thevopposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
True, but they'll be helped by the fact that Labour is in no position to argue that a party which has recently made a catastrophic choice of leader, but now claims to be reformed, can't be trusted.
An unflattering synopsis is that when AI models were only 'replicating' artistic works, developers were generally all for it, or at least not too bothered. But now Microsoft has effectively scraped all their GitHub repositories to feed into their Copilot AI coding tool, they're less happy. It doesn't help that the system seems to be regurgitating whole blocks of code (that is under open source licences) even when told not to.
The future is looking bleak for the low-end developer.
This concern (and evidence for it) was raised well over a year ago when Copilot was initially released.
Yes; it's good to see it revisited now so it can be contextualised with DallE etc.
What will the membership say? They voted for a bonfire of the taxes; Jeremy now scoffs at their wretched little presumptions.
The membership should be put back in their box, they are totally unaccountable and should have no role in choosing a PM. (LOTO is possibly different)
If those that voted for Truss don't like it they can scuttle by to RefUk /UKIP from whence most of them came before they can inflict anymore damage on the country.
Hunts a class act. Let him now run the govt and have Truss as a figurehead whos wheeled out occasionally
If I was on the left of the Labour Party this would all worry me just as much as it worries the Moggs of this world. This is what the “grown ups” would have done to Corbyn, but for much smaller scale “sins”.
We’re now in for at least 10-15 years of very middle of the road policies whoever wins the various elections. Welcome back to soft consensus land.
10-15 years of soft consensus land sounds delightful to me.
It's very optimistic, if it's the same consensus that led to the problems in the first place.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: it’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right. They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from thevopposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
True, but they'll be helped by the fact that Labour is in no position to argue that a party which has recently made a catastrophic choice of leader, but now claims to be reformed, can't be trusted.
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations. Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn. HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years. Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts. So the question for markets: are those cuts *politically* deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
The energy price cap rejigging will probably be worth half of that number leaving just £14bn in cuts and tax rises requires. Some kind of tax rises targeting rentseeking/ers would probably raise half of that number too leaving just £7bn in spending cuts, not exactly earth shattering.
Plus the fact that, if the markets are convinced that we are now back to sane government, they'll probably accept a bit of drift in the timetable, so Hunt might not need to fill the full fiscal hole quite so quickly.
Or at all. £7Bn is a rounding error when split across all Gvt spending.
The problem for the Tories is that while this is a big step forwards, they won't win back Con -> Lab voters until Truss is gone completely. I certainly won't be voting Tory if she's still there, even if she's got no power.
An unflattering synopsis is that when AI models were only 'replicating' artistic works, developers were generally all for it, or at least not too bothered. But now Microsoft has effectively scraped all their GitHub repositories to feed into their Copilot AI coding tool, they're less happy. It doesn't help that the system seems to be regurgitating whole blocks of code (that is under open source licences) even when told not to.
The future is looking bleak for the low-end developer.
This concern (and evidence for it) was raised well over a year ago when Copilot was initially released.
Yes; it's good to see it revisited now so it can be contextualised with DallE etc.
I think the things that grates people is the Copilot is a paid product, as people have "given away" loads of code on Stack Overflow for free over many years. DallE did as well (and that is being also incorporated into a Microsoft product), but then Stable Diffusion came along that is Open Source.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
If we're going to have Sunak and Hunt we might as well have Sir Keir and Reeves.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
This seems to be the Labour line.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581956165583269889 Truss is now an empty husk. Her party encouraged her economically illiterate irresponsibility. Only weeks ago Hunt wanted to go even further than her on tax cuts. Neither of them have a mandate from the British people. #GeneralElectionNow,/i>
Liz Truss = Henry VI circa 1470-71 Jeremy Hunt = The Earl of Warwick
Pretty grim outlook for the rest of the country, then.
Have we a candidate for Henry Tudor then? Can't think of a candidate in any of the three parties with some Welsh origin, unless it's step forward Stephen Kinnock!
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
Not the whole Conservative Party but a sect within it. Just as Corbyn was a dangerous sect within the Labour Party. As a non-partisan Tory, I'd be happy to vote for a sane Labour party (i.e. Starmer) or a sane Tory party (i.e. Rishi / Hunt).
Our democracy works best when we have two well run parties and voters who vote according to performance. Truss needs to get out and Rishi/Hunt need two years to show what they can do, if they don't Starmer can pick it up.
Comments
Listen to Hunt’s statement just now and compare and contrast to Liz’s press conference on Friday.
It is like a spell has been broken. We have been governed by people so patently unsuited to governing for so long.
Who would he be... Rishi?
And in the NHS a lot of locum staff are now working minimum shifts because there is zero incentive to do more.
The fact your bank abused IR35 for years to lower employment costs of technical staff doesn't mean that there isn't a benefit elsewhere in the economy from having flexible staff.
Get the monetary policy ahead of the game like HJunt has just done with the fiscal stuff.
But never mind how and whether Truss can survive this, its whether the Tory Party can survive this. I'm 46 but already feel I'm going to now see out my days under a series of progressive governments of the centre left or worse as the economic liberal alternatives are splintered between the headbanging right and whatever manages to resurrect from the ashes of the official Conservative and Unionist Party. I expect millions of us will feel utterly disenfranchised and left out.
And barely a year ago it looked like we could still have a Boris second full term and maybe another Tory decade ahead of us, at least. Politics, eh?
Bad day for Wee Willie Hague, Truss and Johnson will have been his most enduring effect on UK politics.
*It isn't clear if the Indian population now exceeds China's but it definitely will soon and for the rest of this century.
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations.
Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn.
HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years.
Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts.
So the question for markets: are those cuts *politically* deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/158195889908289126
Reverting to the pre-2017 version isn't perfect but it would be way better than it was especially if it was made clear the employers have some say in the working relationship..
What in reality we need is a whole new set of employment and tax employment laws that are relevant to the 21st rather than the 19th centuries. And that really would take time but the current system just isn't working (as demonstrated by a bank, shipping workers up here for 2 days next week because I'm not travelling down and they can't work out how to get me down there at their expense).
More seriously, the difference between the Sunak and Kwarteng approaches to this one small issue, tells you all you need to know about why Kwarteng was right and Sunak wrong.
I was ranting away about it on here for a week or so as soon as she got in.
The way Truss / Rees-Mogg came in and overturned policy on Fracking WAS. A. DISGRACE. and foretold what was coming in the next few weeks with the mini-budget. As per, the usual morons on here were dismissive.
Movement of the members....
We’re now in for at least 10-15 years of very middle of the road policies whoever wins the various elections. Welcome back to soft consensus land.
Delusional !
This is not ConHome you know.
As I said, I'm pretty ignorant of the ins and outs on this, but it's obvious that reform is needed, and the precise nature of what that ought to be is disputed.
Getting tasty in the splinter group stakes. Again. I have no idea why I found out about this.
🚨 Breaking 🚨
Scottish Green Party Conference has just voted pass our motion to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over institutional transphobia.
#sgpconf
https://twitter.com/rainbowgreens/status/1581674500050952192
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1581959801034055680
We've now had in effect two in four months.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33226515
An unflattering synopsis is that when AI models were only 'replicating' artistic works, developers were generally all for it, or at least not too bothered. But now Microsoft has effectively scraped all their GitHub repositories to feed into their Copilot AI coding tool, they're less happy. It doesn't help that the system seems to be regurgitating whole blocks of code (that is under open source licences) even when told not to.
The future is looking bleak for the low-end developer.
Perhaps you could summarise for our newer posters. There are quite a few these days.
@TelePolitics
·
9m
Replying to
@TelePolitics
💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Seriously, barely seem her lately.
But even without that it would be a better government than this lot.
Wasn't the farmy farm from around 2007-8? That's a decade and a half ago.
If those that voted for Truss don't like it they can scuttle by to RefUk /UKIP from whence most of them came before they can inflict anymore damage on the country.
very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
But hey, if the Tory Party can get behind him let’s go for it.
I also think we have to give Andrew Bailey some credit. His reputation isn't exactly stellar and he was criticised for what he said about the pension funds having 72 hours to sort things out. But I respect him for that. It's not for the bank to be offering permanent liquidity to save the government from itself. It shows our institutions are capable of holding power to account.
The bought a pig in a poke. But no refund - they fell foul of the Stupidity Clause.
("If you are dumb enough to vote for her....")
"The choices are simple: back Liz, if not bring back Boris or face a GE within weeks."
https://twitter.com/antoniabance/status/1581964401116348418
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581956165583269889
Truss is now an empty husk. Her party encouraged her economically illiterate irresponsibility. Only weeks ago Hunt wanted to go even further than her on tax cuts. Neither of them have a mandate from the British people. #GeneralElectionNow,/i>
Our democracy works best when we have two well run parties and voters who vote according to performance. Truss needs to get out and Rishi/Hunt need two years to show what they can do, if they don't Starmer can pick it up.
1) Small State Libertarianism is dead
2) Trickle Down economics is dead
3) You can't buck the market
4) The magic money tree doesn't exist