Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Is this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com

1235711

Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?

    If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?

    I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
  • kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    CRAZY BETTING POST GIVEN ALL THE CRAZINESS BEAR WITH ME

    Cons need someone who is

    Smart
    Pragmatic
    Human
    Able to bring differing sides of the party together
    Media-savvy/friendly

    Step forward...Steve Baker.

    Surprised on the upside wrt NI (the province not the tax break) and might thereby bring ex-Remainers and Leavers with him.

    Needs to get rid of the facial hair and he is well worth a few quid at 60s (bf).

    Human, able to bring different sides of the party together, media savvy, friendly. I'm backing John Redwood as the next Tory leader. It would follow the trend of selections so far.
    Redwood? hasbeen. Step forward Christopher Chope, your time has come.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed, so now that the immediate threat to the economy has been removed, I have no problem with their MPs gathering round the skip fire that is Truss, warming their hands and saying "this is fine".

    Leave her in office as long as you want! But - and its a big but - its in their best interests to remove her. Because "lets all rally behind her" doesn't work when Every Single Time she opens her mouth she drags the party closer to the ELE scenario.
    I agree. I am just thinking back to the Boris situation and what should have been a cut and dry quick defenestration took weeks and months.

    There will be a big “it is our duty to stabilise the markets, now isn’t the time to discuss the leadership” push this week.

    At some point the ludicrous situation will catch up with them because they can’t have a PM in office who has no control over government policy, is held to ransom by her chancellor and is about as popular with the GBP as a fart in a lift, but it might take longer than it should for them to get their act together.

  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?

    If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?

    I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.

    Like all former pms she will be paid 100 grand a time for boring dull speeches
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,503
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    “James C***” would have been fantastic nominative determinism.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 684
    ydoethur said:

    Having read the same post from HY about 150 times over the course of the weekend, I think I can summarise his position:

    The only way for the Conservative Party to survive is to pick a leader he does not support, to enact policies he does not approve of. But they will still have his 100% support.

    When gracious Charles replaced our Queen the Church of England's glory
    Another face of things was seen and H became a Tory.
    Occasional conformists base; He blamed their moderation;
    And thought the State in danger was from such prevarication.
    The Illustrious House of Wallace
    Uncontested succession
    To him I lustily will swear
    While he can keep possession
    For in my faith and loyalty
    I never once will faulter
    But Ben my lawful king shall be,
    Unless the party should alter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    edited October 2022

    I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?

    If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?

    I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.

    On the last point I am sure you are wrong. Time is a great healer and I think if she chose to, she could earn a good deal from books and talks on her meteoric rise and fall.

    She will always have the cachet of 'ex-PM'.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Hope, who has spent years cheerleading for Johnson, months trying to excuse Johnson, and weeks pushing a silly petition to allow Johnson into the leadership race, believes - you may want to sit down for this - that bringing back Johnson is the answer. ~AA

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/seen-whatsapp-message-setting-future-tory-leadership-brutality
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting analysis of drug & alcohol related deaths. Scotland we knew about, but what’s happening on the Isle of Wight?

    Or a bivariate map showing how alcohol and drug deaths relate to each other. Notable that Northern Ireland has caught Scotland up in terms of alcohol deaths, but has much lower rates of drug-related mortality.



    https://twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1581933656536645632
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,271
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    They cannot just put in another useless turkey
  • Driver said:

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed
    Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
    They won't be unchallenged. The Tories will remove the lunatics and refound themselves. Its what Labour have had to go through to remove Corbyn and all his supporters. You can't do that in government. And you won't do that unless you get absolutely smashed in an election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    edited October 2022

    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    CRAZY BETTING POST GIVEN ALL THE CRAZINESS BEAR WITH ME

    Cons need someone who is

    Smart
    Pragmatic
    Human
    Able to bring differing sides of the party together
    Media-savvy/friendly

    Step forward...Steve Baker.

    Surprised on the upside wrt NI (the province not the tax break) and might thereby bring ex-Remainers and Leavers with him.

    Needs to get rid of the facial hair and he is well worth a few quid at 60s (bf).

    Human, able to bring different sides of the party together, media savvy, friendly. I'm backing John Redwood as the next Tory leader. It would follow the trend of selections so far.
    Redwood? hasbeen. Step forward Christopher Chope, your time has come.
    It's 1902 again?
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?

    She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
    Short memory? You have to go way back to July to find the last Motion of Confidence

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_vote_of_confidence_in_the_Johnson_ministry

    You know, I had either forgotten it or just missed it altogether.

    I have of course been trying to blank out the last ghastly days of the Johnson administration which may account for it.
    Chris Hope of telegraph wants Johnson back
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953

    I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?

    If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?

    I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.

    If they were smart (yes, I know) the IEA would employ her to sit in every meeting and say "No" to every single idea they come up with...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..

    Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?

    If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.

    If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.

    What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
    What is the upside to Liz Truss in not calling one?

    There is no upside whatever she does.
    On the latter point we are definitely agreed!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    Driver said:

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed
    Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?

    Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    Driver said:

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed
    Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
    They won't be unchallenged. The Tories will remove the lunatics and refound themselves. Its what Labour have had to go through to remove Corbyn and all his supporters. You can't do that in government. And you won't do that unless you get absolutely smashed in an election.
    If you've been destroyed, you don't have a party left to rebuild...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    Driver said:

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed
    Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?

    Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
    If the Tory party disappears, who challenges Labour? For months we've been told that we can lump all the other parties' opinion poll scores together because Labour, Lib Dems and Greens are all the same...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,262
    ihunt said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?

    She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
    Short memory? You have to go way back to July to find the last Motion of Confidence

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_vote_of_confidence_in_the_Johnson_ministry

    You know, I had either forgotten it or just missed it altogether.

    I have of course been trying to blank out the last ghastly days of the Johnson administration which may account for it.
    Chris Hope of telegraph wants Johnson back
    He can hope all he wants - Johnson isn't an option.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..

    Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?

    If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.

    If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.

    What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
    None. I was running with a hypothetical asked by BenPointer. Truss won't call a GE this month. It won't happen. I don't bet (ever) but I'd feel safe putting my house on her not calling a GE because that isn't a bet.

    A GE *might* be engineered however, but Truss won't call one this month.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.


    I was with you for a while but "Hague from the
    Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
    Ha! I don’t disagree but my point is more to illustrate how there is a total dearth of “elder statesperson” type candidates in the commons who could fulfil the role, if we’re honest Wallace isn’t that figure either but the most well placed of what is available.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,271
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Now Dartford Bridge is shut, because of a couple of morons climbing the structure.

    The policing of these protestors, could be about to become a story that blows up in the government’s face.

    The new MET commissioner did not inspire confidence this morning on that front.
    It's not exactly easy to remove someone when they have intentionally picked a place that makes removing them impossible.
    Hose the clowns with ice cold water , they will not be up there long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,503
    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
    Penny would have been a great choice, if she hadn’t been caught lying about getting Stonewall to write legislation on equalities. Disqualifying.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Now Dartford Bridge is shut, because of a couple of morons climbing the structure.

    The policing of these protestors, could be about to become a story that blows up in the government’s face.

    The new MET commissioner did not inspire confidence this morning on that front.
    It's not exactly easy to remove someone when they have intentionally picked a place that makes removing them impossible.
    Hose the clowns with ice cold water , they will not be up there long.
    Do I detect a certain frostiness in your attitude towards them, Malc?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    It would help their survival chances if they could
    get someone who has at least a little bit of
    charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
    It’s too late for that now. They should have thought of that three months ago. Now it’s a simple case of who is the last one standing capable of being grudgingly crowned by a party that’s at war with itself. If there’s no one who can or is willing to do that, then Truss will survive.

  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,270

    I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?

    If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?

    I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.

    On the last point I am sure you are wrong. Time is a great healer and I think if she chose to, she could earn a good deal from books and talks on her meteoric rise and fall.

    She will always have the cachet of 'ex-PM'.
    The narrative arc of hubris to nemesis to redemption is well trodden.

    Something like a penitential walk to the four corners of the Kingdom to raise money for charity would be a way of showing that anyone can dust themselves down and pick themselves up from failure - however dramatic and complete - and do some good.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581933650698186753

    Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited October 2022
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
    Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). No clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
    Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). Likewise no clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
    If they’re this basic it’s a surprise so many found their target. Presumably a high powered assault could take one down

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2022
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Now Dartford Bridge is shut, because of a couple of morons climbing the structure.

    The policing of these protestors, could be about to become a story that blows up in the government’s face.

    The new MET commissioner did not inspire confidence this morning on that front.
    It's not exactly easy to remove someone when they have intentionally picked a place that makes removing them impossible.
    Hose the clowns with ice cold water , they will not be up there long.
    Leave them up there and remember to bill them for the bridge closure. Arrest them when they finally come down.

    Being declared bankrupt and getting a conviction will soon make their life hard enough that anyone contemplating it might well think twice. No mortgages, no bank account, other countries refusing you entry...

    It might also be worth pointing out the extra pollution they are causing and fuel being burnt to bypass the bridge. Everything they are doing is totally counterproductive to their message. Keep hammering that home on the news and watch them try to explain it away.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Asked by @MattChorley on Times Radio what Liz Truss brings to the table as PM, Andrew Mitchell says “She appointed Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor”
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1581939689384120322
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.

    If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.

    I want the Tory party destroyed
    Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?

    Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
    If the Tory party disappears, who challenges Labour? For months we've been told that we can lump all the other parties' opinion poll scores together because Labour, Lib Dems and Greens are all the same...
    The LDs would for sure. And the Tories would fragment in to a One-nation centre-right, pro-business, possibly pro-Europe party, and a BluKip populist party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    edited October 2022
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
    Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581933650698186753

    Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.

    No. I am sticking behind my prediction, one backed up with a large chunk of the equity on my house, that there will be a Tory lead before the end of October. This will almost certainly be it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,270

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
    The advantage of Hague (or someone else) from the Lords is that such a PM wouldn't be in the job for the long haul, so they wouldn't stymie the ambitions of any of the other contenders. But it would get Truss out of the way and then they would have some time to come up with a new way to choose a leader and then have that contest.

    Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary measures.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.

    The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.

    It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.

    Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.

    That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.

    If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    This @EdConwaySky important: a 🚨 problem in one corner of the pensions system which is going to take a couple of days to fix, but this firm could collapse if UK gilts / borrowing costs rise b4 then

    Is this the actual issue Jeremy Hunt is trying to fix at 11am.

    Shock & awe https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1581925920994009088
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
    Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
    Gawd, I remember that. 2010? :open_mouth: Where does the time go?

    Ah, well. Maybe it really is just because Jeremy's a bit of a c*** then?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,389

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..

    Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?

    If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.

    If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.

    What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
    Back to the Lib Dems?

    And a belated good morning to one and all. Trying to do too many things at once in the Cole household today; it wouldn't of been so bad if we hadn't slept in!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,252
    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    Future of warfare though? We maybe aren't far from a war when it's just drones vs drones? And any civilian population gets annihilated.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581933650698186753

    Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.

    I had expected that Hunts appointment might have given the Tories a bounce even if Truss’s own approval remains in the toilet . Anyway all will be revealed later !
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
    I wondered how long it would be until her lack of Brexit Purity was wheeled out to save "The Project" :D:D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?

    Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?

    Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
    So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
    No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
    I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.

    Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
    Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?

    She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
    The Tories did it not that long back!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,262
    edited October 2022
    @Scott_xP beat me too it but this morning's announcement may be connected to this issue...

    BREAKING
    I’m told UK regulators have identified one LDI fund at an asset manager which would face a series of “knockouts” & potential collapse if gilt yields had risen markedly this morning.
    They believe the rest of the system is safe.
    Important background to HMT statement today.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    AlistairM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
    There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,270
    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    Apparently the Gepard anti-aircraft guns are good for this. Their targeting is quite sophisticated, but the ammunition is pretty cheap.

    Anti-aircraft guns lost favour because they are not so good against fast missiles and aircraft, but they seem like the cheapest way to counter large numbers of cheap drones.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,503
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
    Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
    Gawd, I remember that. 2010? :open_mouth: Where does the time go?

    Ah, well. Maybe it really is just because Jeremy's a bit of a c*** then?
    It says an awful lot more about the BBC, than it does about Mr Hunt.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
    Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). No clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
    I wonder where they got the idea from? Are they powered by a pulse engine?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
    I wondered how long it would be until her lack of Brexit Purity was wheeled out to save "The Project" :D:D
    My comment is no more ridiculous than Martin Wolf’s that the recent financial strike has been caused by having a “Brexit leader”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    edited October 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    The downside is that unless they're shot down by small arms fire, the missiles to knock them down cost more than the drones.
    They are intended to swamp air defences through sheer weight of numbers as much as anything. Fortunately Russia doesn't yet appear to have very large numbers of them.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    What is needed is a PM who is a good communicator, who can shamelessly spin a line which totally contradicts yesterday's line, who is free of any ideology, who isn't associated with any particular wing of the party, and who has no interest in policy so won't interfere with Jeremy Hunt's running of the country. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present... Grant Shapps.

    No.

    Look - they are doomed. This is way worse than the ERM debacle or the GFC. No political party has ever survived this kind of mess. So we can do without another talentless clown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
    Around $20k.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
    Perhaps she was a sleeper agent after all? She seemed to be off-target, helping Starmer toward a large majority, but supposing the real target is Brexit itself.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040
  • Could the Redfield & Wilton poll tonight give labour a 40% lead?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,456
    Nigelb said:

    AlistairM said:

    Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.

    Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440

    Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.

    So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968

    The downside is that unless they're shot down by small arms fire, the missiles to knock them down cost more than the drones.
    They are intended to swamp air defences through sheer weight of numbers as much as anything. Fortunately Russia doesn't yet appear to have very large numbers of them.
    The latest Perun video I linked to below goes into this in great detail. Basically: AA guns are going to come back in western thinking, but as part of a combined system with missiles. (I think he said this is current Soviet/Russian thinking, which is why they have gun systems?)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,900
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
    This is moonshine, I fear, Truss is not a Lib Dem- just a opportunist - and currently a Conservative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to be going under the Dartford Bridge on HS1 in a bit. I’ll see if I can spot a protester.

    "under" the Dartford Bridge? What are you, Ukrainian special forces?
    HS1 threads under the spans on the north bank of the Thames.
    That is not a denial.... 😉
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    PMQs, Wednesday

    "To ask the monkey how to grind the organ..."
  • moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.

    The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.

    It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.

    Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.

    That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.

    If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
    The Tories need to find someone without charisma. This is a hugely overrated trait, typically associated with an overactive bullshit gland. The reason for Starmer's current popularity is his refreshing lack of sparkle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    What is needed is a PM who is a good communicator, who can shamelessly spin a line which totally contradicts yesterday's line, who is free of any ideology, who isn't associated with any particular wing of the party, and who has no interest in policy so won't interfere with Jeremy Hunt's running of the country. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present... Grant Shapps.

    You may not. Not after the IRP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Scott_xP said:

    Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040

    Tht's delicious.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m going to be going under the Dartford Bridge on HS1 in a bit. I’ll see if I can spot a protester.

    "under" the Dartford Bridge? What are you, Ukrainian special forces?
    HS1 threads under the spans on the north bank of the Thames.
    That is not a denial.... 😉
    I thought your Slavic special forces trained dolphins, not seals?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
    Perhaps she was a sleeper agent after all? She seemed to be off-target, helping Starmer toward a large majority, but supposing the real target is Brexit itself.....
    I'd suggest The Manchurian Candidate as the template here rather than a straightforward sleeper agent.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Scott_xP said:

    Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040

    The Turkey are going to vote to cancel Christmas.

    They have no choice. They have to limit the damage. With some notable exceptions almost anyone else they pick will be better. Their biggest challenge is to agree on someone.

    They should run the leadership election from the Summer but skip the have an additional round to see the level of support amongst MPs. The final 2 in theory should go to the members but they get the candidates to agree that whoever gets the least votes then dropped out. Very similar to what happened with May vs. Leadsom in 2016. Could be done in 5 days.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953

    The Tories need to find someone without charisma.

    They just appointed Jeremy Hunt...
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    Sanity of sanities. All is sanity.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.

    The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.

    It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.

    Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.

    That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.

    If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
    The Tories need to find someone without charisma. This is a hugely overrated trait, typically associated with an overactive bullshit gland. The reason for Starmer's current popularity is his refreshing lack of sparkle.
    The reason for Starmer's current popularity is that he is the alternative.

    That will be enough to get him elected, but it'll start running him into trouble pretty quickly in government unless he starts the hard work of getting support for his policies now.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    On my comment about Israel earlier. Not sure what Russia expected by cosying up to Iran.

    #BREAKING Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev says "It appears Israel is preparing to supply arms to Ukraine. It would destroy Israeli-Russian diplomatic ties."
    https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1581945650056691714
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
    Penny would have been a great choice, if she hadn’t been caught lying about getting Stonewall to write legislation on equalities. Disqualifying.
    Surely the bar for lies is far lower than this following BJ's multi-year cavalcade of falsehood?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    LOL “but my energy price guarantee!”

    Liz is done for. Her whole attack line at PMQs last week was whether Labour would commit to a 2 year guarantee. Literally nothing she has proposed or advocated for has survived.

    Chortle.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    edited October 2022
    We need Spartacus Mills to sum this up in a word - no, a sound...

    Question - of current Cabinet Ministers how many would have a seat round the table in a real competent administration. Never mind on policies just on raw ability to do the job of running a Department. Two?, three?, four if I'm really generous.

    The next PM is to be judged very quickly. If the rubbish isn't put out the door on day one then I've no time for them. It's not just Mogg and Braverman and Coffey. Its also Badenoch, Cleverly, Brandon Lewis, Zahawi, Berry, Chloe Smith, Jayawardene, Trevelyan and Donelan. None of them are anywhere near being up to the job.

    Who's left? If you were in the Cabinet through this sh*t-show then your judgement is under serious question. You took the Truss shilling and then didn't resign when they tanked the economy apparently without consulting you. When would you resign?

    But OK - Wallace, Mordaunt and Sharma could stay on probation. But that's the three 'dodgy' seats filled. Now you need to fill a Cabinet with reliable talented people. Any idea where we can find them?

    Step forward Grant Shapps? It is insulting to the British people to continue this farce any longer.

    Appoint Peter Bone as PM so we can at least have a laugh as we slide into Third World status.
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    Grant Shapps is Grant Shapps in a wig.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    They have to be pretty careful. They could hit the middle classes with a double whammy of mortgage rates and energy costs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Grant Shapps is Grant Shapps in a wig.

    Are you all Green on him?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,389
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
    There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
    I believe one of the lesser-known "facts" about the war was that we were able to interfere with the control system of German guided missiles, thereby ensuring that they fell on less populated areas. However we didn't wish to advertise our ability to interfere with the system too much, so just diverted the missiles some 10 or 15 miles south of their intended targets. So Kent and part of Surrey got quite a lot of missiles that Hitler and his team had intended for London!

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    edited October 2022
    BREAKING: Energy Support Guarantee could be cut short in April

    They may as well take this never-to-be-repeated chance to ditch the triple lock.....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
    Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
    Excdept it wasn't, I have got through life using the word hunt quite a lot, for reasons we will pass over, and never come within 10 miles of accidentally saying c when I meant h. ditto front, grunt, punt etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    reporters will need to use the words “cuts” and “Hunt” in the same sentence a lot today. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1581930601334312963

    It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
    Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
    I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? :wink: ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
    Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
    Excdept it wasn't, I have got through life using the word hunt quite a lot, for reasons we will pass over, and never come within 10 miles of accidentally saying c when I meant h. ditto front, grunt, punt etc.
    Perhaps he was thinking of himself?
  • PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    moonshine said:

    To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.

    Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.

    It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!

    As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.

    Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.

    I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
    The advantage of Hague (or someone else) from the Lords is that such a PM wouldn't be in the job for the long haul, so they wouldn't stymie the ambitions of any of the other contenders. But it would get Truss out of the way and then they would have some time to come up with a new way to choose a leader and then have that contest.

    Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary measures.
    Next but one tory PM is just starting school this term, so there isn't much incentive for other contenders to play the long game. It's PM 2022-5, or not at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083

    PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    They have to be pretty careful. They could hit the middle classes with a double whammy of mortgage rates and energy costs.
    Aye - Gilt yields should improve but this will hardly help their polling. I don't think it matters if Truss is replaced or not the Conservatives are out of power for a long time at the next GE.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Nadine Dorries publicly suggesting that Boris Johnson could return as one option. https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1581947841626640384
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476

    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine

    The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
    There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
    I believe one of the lesser-known "facts" about the war was that we were able to interfere with the control system of German guided missiles, thereby ensuring that they fell on less populated areas. However we didn't wish to advertise our ability to interfere with the system too much, so just diverted the missiles some 10 or 15 miles south of their intended targets. So Kent and part of Surrey got quite a lot of missiles that Hitler and his team had intended for London!

    We also reported that those missiles HAD actually hit London, so the Germans weren't aware.
This discussion has been closed.