I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
CRAZY BETTING POST GIVEN ALL THE CRAZINESS BEAR WITH ME
Cons need someone who is
Smart Pragmatic Human Able to bring differing sides of the party together Media-savvy/friendly
Step forward...Steve Baker.
Surprised on the upside wrt NI (the province not the tax break) and might thereby bring ex-Remainers and Leavers with him.
Needs to get rid of the facial hair and he is well worth a few quid at 60s (bf).
Human, able to bring different sides of the party together, media savvy, friendly. I'm backing John Redwood as the next Tory leader. It would follow the trend of selections so far.
Redwood? hasbeen. Step forward Christopher Chope, your time has come.
Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.
If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.
I want the Tory party destroyed, so now that the immediate threat to the economy has been removed, I have no problem with their MPs gathering round the skip fire that is Truss, warming their hands and saying "this is fine".
Leave her in office as long as you want! But - and its a big but - its in their best interests to remove her. Because "lets all rally behind her" doesn't work when Every Single Time she opens her mouth she drags the party closer to the ELE scenario.
I agree. I am just thinking back to the Boris situation and what should have been a cut and dry quick defenestration took weeks and months.
There will be a big “it is our duty to stabilise the markets, now isn’t the time to discuss the leadership” push this week.
At some point the ludicrous situation will catch up with them because they can’t have a PM in office who has no control over government policy, is held to ransom by her chancellor and is about as popular with the GBP as a fart in a lift, but it might take longer than it should for them to get their act together.
I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
Like all former pms she will be paid 100 grand a time for boring dull speeches
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
“James C***” would have been fantastic nominative determinism.
Having read the same post from HY about 150 times over the course of the weekend, I think I can summarise his position:
The only way for the Conservative Party to survive is to pick a leader he does not support, to enact policies he does not approve of. But they will still have his 100% support.
When gracious Charles replaced our Queen the Church of England's glory Another face of things was seen and H became a Tory. Occasional conformists base; He blamed their moderation; And thought the State in danger was from such prevarication.
The Illustrious House of Wallace Uncontested succession To him I lustily will swear While he can keep possession For in my faith and loyalty I never once will faulter But Ben my lawful king shall be, Unless the party should alter.
I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
On the last point I am sure you are wrong. Time is a great healer and I think if she chose to, she could earn a good deal from books and talks on her meteoric rise and fall.
Hope, who has spent years cheerleading for Johnson, months trying to excuse Johnson, and weeks pushing a silly petition to allow Johnson into the leadership race, believes - you may want to sit down for this - that bringing back Johnson is the answer. ~AA
Interesting analysis of drug & alcohol related deaths. Scotland we knew about, but what’s happening on the Isle of Wight?
Or a bivariate map showing how alcohol and drug deaths relate to each other. Notable that Northern Ireland has caught Scotland up in terms of alcohol deaths, but has much lower rates of drug-related mortality.
Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.
If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.
I want the Tory party destroyed
Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
They won't be unchallenged. The Tories will remove the lunatics and refound themselves. Its what Labour have had to go through to remove Corbyn and all his supporters. You can't do that in government. And you won't do that unless you get absolutely smashed in an election.
CRAZY BETTING POST GIVEN ALL THE CRAZINESS BEAR WITH ME
Cons need someone who is
Smart Pragmatic Human Able to bring differing sides of the party together Media-savvy/friendly
Step forward...Steve Baker.
Surprised on the upside wrt NI (the province not the tax break) and might thereby bring ex-Remainers and Leavers with him.
Needs to get rid of the facial hair and he is well worth a few quid at 60s (bf).
Human, able to bring different sides of the party together, media savvy, friendly. I'm backing John Redwood as the next Tory leader. It would follow the trend of selections so far.
Redwood? hasbeen. Step forward Christopher Chope, your time has come.
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?
She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
Short memory? You have to go way back to July to find the last Motion of Confidence
I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
If they were smart (yes, I know) the IEA would employ her to sit in every meeting and say "No" to every single idea they come up with...
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..
Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?
If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.
If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.
What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
What is the upside to Liz Truss in not calling one?
Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.
If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.
I want the Tory party destroyed
Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
They won't be unchallenged. The Tories will remove the lunatics and refound themselves. Its what Labour have had to go through to remove Corbyn and all his supporters. You can't do that in government. And you won't do that unless you get absolutely smashed in an election.
If you've been destroyed, you don't have a party left to rebuild...
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.
If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.
I want the Tory party destroyed
Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
If the Tory party disappears, who challenges Labour? For months we've been told that we can lump all the other parties' opinion poll scores together because Labour, Lib Dems and Greens are all the same...
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?
She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
Short memory? You have to go way back to July to find the last Motion of Confidence
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..
Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?
If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.
If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.
What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
None. I was running with a hypothetical asked by BenPointer. Truss won't call a GE this month. It won't happen. I don't bet (ever) but I'd feel safe putting my house on her not calling a GE because that isn't a bet.
A GE *might* be engineered however, but Truss won't call one this month.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
Ha! I don’t disagree but my point is more to illustrate how there is a total dearth of “elder statesperson” type candidates in the commons who could fulfil the role, if we’re honest Wallace isn’t that figure either but the most well placed of what is available.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
Penny would have been a great choice, if she hadn’t been caught lying about getting Stonewall to write legislation on equalities. Disqualifying.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
It’s too late for that now. They should have thought of that three months ago. Now it’s a simple case of who is the last one standing capable of being grudgingly crowned by a party that’s at war with itself. If there’s no one who can or is willing to do that, then Truss will survive.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
I have not seen anyone mention that Truss will resign as both PM and an MP. Surely she will go?
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
On the last point I am sure you are wrong. Time is a great healer and I think if she chose to, she could earn a good deal from books and talks on her meteoric rise and fall.
She will always have the cachet of 'ex-PM'.
The narrative arc of hubris to nemesis to redemption is well trodden.
Something like a penitential walk to the four corners of the Kingdom to raise money for charity would be a way of showing that anyone can dust themselves down and pick themselves up from failure - however dramatic and complete - and do some good.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). No clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). Likewise no clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
If they’re this basic it’s a surprise so many found their target. Presumably a high powered assault could take one down
Now Dartford Bridge is shut, because of a couple of morons climbing the structure.
The policing of these protestors, could be about to become a story that blows up in the government’s face.
The new MET commissioner did not inspire confidence this morning on that front.
It's not exactly easy to remove someone when they have intentionally picked a place that makes removing them impossible.
Hose the clowns with ice cold water , they will not be up there long.
Leave them up there and remember to bill them for the bridge closure. Arrest them when they finally come down.
Being declared bankrupt and getting a conviction will soon make their life hard enough that anyone contemplating it might well think twice. No mortgages, no bank account, other countries refusing you entry...
It might also be worth pointing out the extra pollution they are causing and fuel being burnt to bypass the bridge. Everything they are doing is totally counterproductive to their message. Keep hammering that home on the news and watch them try to explain it away.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Damien Green backs Truss - not time for another leadership change.
If the rebels don’t get their act together this week she might have bought at least a few more weeks.
I want the Tory party destroyed
Because an unchallenged Labour Party would be just brilliant for the country?
Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
If the Tory party disappears, who challenges Labour? For months we've been told that we can lump all the other parties' opinion poll scores together because Labour, Lib Dems and Greens are all the same...
The LDs would for sure. And the Tories would fragment in to a One-nation centre-right, pro-business, possibly pro-Europe party, and a BluKip populist party.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.
Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.
No. I am sticking behind my prediction, one backed up with a large chunk of the equity on my house, that there will be a Tory lead before the end of October. This will almost certainly be it.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
The advantage of Hague (or someone else) from the Lords is that such a PM wouldn't be in the job for the long haul, so they wouldn't stymie the ambitions of any of the other contenders. But it would get Truss out of the way and then they would have some time to come up with a new way to choose a leader and then have that contest.
Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary measures.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.
The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.
It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.
Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.
That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.
If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
This @EdConwaySky important: a 🚨 problem in one corner of the pensions system which is going to take a couple of days to fix, but this firm could collapse if UK gilts / borrowing costs rise b4 then
Is this the actual issue Jeremy Hunt is trying to fix at 11am.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.
The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
In all these scenarios however, there seems to be one big elephant in the room..
Why, erm, would Liz Truss call a GE?
If it’s the threat of calling one to get rebels to back off, that will go down like a cup of cold sick and will divide the Tory Party even further and make it even more ungovernable.
If she calls a GE she loses it horrifically and is forever persona non grata to the Tory Party.
What is the upside to Liz Truss in all of this?
Back to the Lib Dems?
And a belated good morning to one and all. Trying to do too many things at once in the Cole household today; it wouldn't of been so bad if we hadn't slept in!
Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.
I had expected that Hunts appointment might have given the Tories a bounce even if Truss’s own approval remains in the toilet . Anyway all will be revealed later !
Question for the PB constitutional experts: is there anything to stop Truss going to KC and asking him to dissolve Parliament for a General Election?
Crazy, yes, but if she's had enough and is going to be kicked out by her party anyway, why not?
Brady would advise she no longer commands a majority in the party.
So what? Brady would not be consulted and even if he were the fact that she cannot command a majority of a party is irrelevant.
No, he'd make the call to KC. 178 MPs vote to oust her as leader within an hour and within another a new PM is installed without consulting party members.
I don't agree. If Truss took the nuclear option and tried to call a GE, Brady would need more than 178 MPs. He'd need 326. Anything else and the government collapses anyway.
Truss would simply call a VoNC in her own government. Sure, 200 Conservatives 'oppose' her VoNC, but Labour won't and it'll sail through. GE.
Can you actually call a VONC in your own government? I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can do that?
She could of course propose a money bill, which would have the same effect in practice.
@Scott_xP beat me too it but this morning's announcement may be connected to this issue...
BREAKING I’m told UK regulators have identified one LDI fund at an asset manager which would face a series of “knockouts” & potential collapse if gilt yields had risen markedly this morning. They believe the rest of the system is safe. Important background to HMT statement today.
The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
Apparently the Gepard anti-aircraft guns are good for this. Their targeting is quite sophisticated, but the ammunition is pretty cheap.
Anti-aircraft guns lost favour because they are not so good against fast missiles and aircraft, but they seem like the cheapest way to counter large numbers of cheap drones.
What is needed is a PM who is a good communicator, who can shamelessly spin a line which totally contradicts yesterday's line, who is free of any ideology, who isn't associated with any particular wing of the party, and who has no interest in policy so won't interfere with Jeremy Hunt's running of the country. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present... Grant Shapps.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
How much do these drones cost and is there any indication of the monthly production capacity?
Just $20K each apparently (sorry, have no link). No clue on production capacity. They are basically a bomb attached to a large and slow moving wing. Fairly easy to shoot down. They are a terror weapon as can be seen by the targeting of residential areas in cities.
I wonder where they got the idea from? Are they powered by a pulse engine?
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
The downside is that unless they're shot down by small arms fire, the missiles to knock them down cost more than the drones. They are intended to swamp air defences through sheer weight of numbers as much as anything. Fortunately Russia doesn't yet appear to have very large numbers of them.
What is needed is a PM who is a good communicator, who can shamelessly spin a line which totally contradicts yesterday's line, who is free of any ideology, who isn't associated with any particular wing of the party, and who has no interest in policy so won't interfere with Jeremy Hunt's running of the country. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present... Grant Shapps.
No.
Look - they are doomed. This is way worse than the ERM debacle or the GFC. No political party has ever survived this kind of mess. So we can do without another talentless clown.
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
Perhaps she was a sleeper agent after all? She seemed to be off-target, helping Starmer toward a large majority, but supposing the real target is Brexit itself.....
Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040
Explains why Israel may now be forced to pick a side.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
The downside is that unless they're shot down by small arms fire, the missiles to knock them down cost more than the drones. They are intended to swamp air defences through sheer weight of numbers as much as anything. Fortunately Russia doesn't yet appear to have very large numbers of them.
The latest Perun video I linked to below goes into this in great detail. Basically: AA guns are going to come back in western thinking, but as part of a combined system with missiles. (I think he said this is current Soviet/Russian thinking, which is why they have gun systems?)
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.
The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.
It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.
Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.
That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.
If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
The Tories need to find someone without charisma. This is a hugely overrated trait, typically associated with an overactive bullshit gland. The reason for Starmer's current popularity is his refreshing lack of sparkle.
What is needed is a PM who is a good communicator, who can shamelessly spin a line which totally contradicts yesterday's line, who is free of any ideology, who isn't associated with any particular wing of the party, and who has no interest in policy so won't interfere with Jeremy Hunt's running of the country. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present... Grant Shapps.
Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040
Or to put it another way, a Lib Dem Remainer blows up her own government inside a month
Perhaps she was a sleeper agent after all? She seemed to be off-target, helping Starmer toward a large majority, but supposing the real target is Brexit itself.....
I'd suggest The Manchurian Candidate as the template here rather than a straightforward sleeper agent.
Statement from Hunt to try to calm the market, but the Truss administration in free fall, with the feel of governing hour-to-hour. Told that "substantial number of letters" expected to be going into Brady, back from Greece today. View that this is not politically recoverable https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040
The Turkey are going to vote to cancel Christmas.
They have no choice. They have to limit the damage. With some notable exceptions almost anyone else they pick will be better. Their biggest challenge is to agree on someone.
They should run the leadership election from the Summer but skip the have an additional round to see the level of support amongst MPs. The final 2 in theory should go to the members but they get the candidates to agree that whoever gets the least votes then dropped out. Very similar to what happened with May vs. Leadsom in 2016. Could be done in 5 days.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I think the key thing in all of this is what role the next leader is going to perform.
The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.
It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.
Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.
That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.
If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
The Tories need to find someone without charisma. This is a hugely overrated trait, typically associated with an overactive bullshit gland. The reason for Starmer's current popularity is his refreshing lack of sparkle.
The reason for Starmer's current popularity is that he is the alternative.
That will be enough to get him elected, but it'll start running him into trouble pretty quickly in government unless he starts the hard work of getting support for his policies now.
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
It would help their survival chances if they could get someone who has at least a little bit of charisma. Penny Mordaunt would be my choice.
Penny would have been a great choice, if she hadn’t been caught lying about getting Stonewall to write legislation on equalities. Disqualifying.
Surely the bar for lies is far lower than this following BJ's multi-year cavalcade of falsehood?
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
LOL “but my energy price guarantee!”
Liz is done for. Her whole attack line at PMQs last week was whether Labour would commit to a 2 year guarantee. Literally nothing she has proposed or advocated for has survived.
We need Spartacus Mills to sum this up in a word - no, a sound...
Question - of current Cabinet Ministers how many would have a seat round the table in a real competent administration. Never mind on policies just on raw ability to do the job of running a Department. Two?, three?, four if I'm really generous.
The next PM is to be judged very quickly. If the rubbish isn't put out the door on day one then I've no time for them. It's not just Mogg and Braverman and Coffey. Its also Badenoch, Cleverly, Brandon Lewis, Zahawi, Berry, Chloe Smith, Jayawardene, Trevelyan and Donelan. None of them are anywhere near being up to the job.
Who's left? If you were in the Cabinet through this sh*t-show then your judgement is under serious question. You took the Truss shilling and then didn't resign when they tanked the economy apparently without consulting you. When would you resign?
But OK - Wallace, Mordaunt and Sharma could stay on probation. But that's the three 'dodgy' seats filled. Now you need to fill a Cabinet with reliable talented people. Any idea where we can find them?
Step forward Grant Shapps? It is insulting to the British people to continue this farce any longer.
Appoint Peter Bone as PM so we can at least have a laugh as we slide into Third World status.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
They have to be pretty careful. They could hit the middle classes with a double whammy of mortgage rates and energy costs.
The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
I believe one of the lesser-known "facts" about the war was that we were able to interfere with the control system of German guided missiles, thereby ensuring that they fell on less populated areas. However we didn't wish to advertise our ability to interfere with the system too much, so just diverted the missiles some 10 or 15 miles south of their intended targets. So Kent and part of Surrey got quite a lot of missiles that Hitler and his team had intended for London!
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.
Excdept it wasn't, I have got through life using the word hunt quite a lot, for reasons we will pass over, and never come within 10 miles of accidentally saying c when I meant h. ditto front, grunt, punt etc.
It’s remarkably childish how presenters have this “problem” with J Hunt, politician, when it never seemed to be an issue with the late racing driver. I’m hardly a Tory but there are enough sticks to beat what passes for a “Government” here without prurient swipes at someone’s surname, rhyming slang or no.
Also never seems to have been an issue with Tristram Hunt, who really *is* a c...
I wonder whether Corbyn is (as usual? ) partly to blame. Did the Jeremy C*** lines pre-date Corbyn's leadership? Journalists were, afterall, in the Corbyn era very used to following Jeremy with a word beginning with C. Alos, mouthing it, the C sound follows much more easily after Jeremy for the than it does after James or Tristram - and alos more easily than H. The y to H transition is a bit of an effort, y to C much easier.
Yes. Long predated it. It was in December 2010 in a slip by James Naughtie.
Excdept it wasn't, I have got through life using the word hunt quite a lot, for reasons we will pass over, and never come within 10 miles of accidentally saying c when I meant h. ditto front, grunt, punt etc.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
To spell it out, for there to be a coronation, there needs to be a candidate who is unopposed. There seems no world in which either Mordaunt or Sunak would be unopposed. Sunak needs to accept this if he hasn’t already.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
I was with you for a while but "Hague from the Lords" is moonshine @Moonshine.
The advantage of Hague (or someone else) from the Lords is that such a PM wouldn't be in the job for the long haul, so they wouldn't stymie the ambitions of any of the other contenders. But it would get Truss out of the way and then they would have some time to come up with a new way to choose a leader and then have that contest.
Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary measures.
Next but one tory PM is just starting school this term, so there isn't much incentive for other contenders to play the long game. It's PM 2022-5, or not at all.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
They have to be pretty careful. They could hit the middle classes with a double whammy of mortgage rates and energy costs.
Aye - Gilt yields should improve but this will hardly help their polling. I don't think it matters if Truss is replaced or not the Conservatives are out of power for a long time at the next GE.
The Iranian drones are basic and easy to shoot down. But the anti air missile will cost far far more than the flying kamikaze washing machine
The solution is probably some form of very cheap drone tasked with launching and intercepting. Like a V1 used to be able to be taken out by "wing tipping" then something similar would probably work on these.
There used to be a map on the wall in most Kent Shepherd Neame pubs, taken from a feature in the Kent Messenger I believe, that had a black dot for every V1 and V2 that fell in the county. There were…a lot.
I believe one of the lesser-known "facts" about the war was that we were able to interfere with the control system of German guided missiles, thereby ensuring that they fell on less populated areas. However we didn't wish to advertise our ability to interfere with the system too much, so just diverted the missiles some 10 or 15 miles south of their intended targets. So Kent and part of Surrey got quite a lot of missiles that Hitler and his team had intended for London!
We also reported that those missiles HAD actually hit London, so the Germans weren't aware.
Comments
If her govt fears losing an election, what hope would she have in one? Also would you stay surrounded by people who, after a month in the job, told you that you were so useless and incompetent that you had to go?
I do not know what she will do now. I cannot see anyone ever employing her for anything, certainly not in the UK.
There will be a big “it is our duty to stabilise the markets, now isn’t the time to discuss the leadership” push this week.
At some point the ludicrous situation will catch up with them because they can’t have a PM in office who has no control over government policy, is held to ransom by her chancellor and is about as popular with the GBP as a fart in a lift, but it might take longer than it should for them to get their act together.
Uncontested succession
To him I lustily will swear
While he can keep possession
For in my faith and loyalty
I never once will faulter
But Ben my lawful king shall be,
Unless the party should alter.
She will always have the cachet of 'ex-PM'.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/seen-whatsapp-message-setting-future-tory-leadership-brutality
Or a bivariate map showing how alcohol and drug deaths relate to each other. Notable that Northern Ireland has caught Scotland up in terms of alcohol deaths, but has much lower rates of drug-related mortality.
https://twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1581933656536645632
Labour wouldn't be unchallenged of course but the Tories should be consigned to history for the damage they have done to this country.
Hunt might be in the driving seat but he has the problem that a) he ran last time and got the fewest Mp votes, b) he ran the time before and got smashed in the members vote. Which doesn’t indicate he is especially likely as a unifying candidate for MPs.
It’s quite hard to get beyond Wallace because he’s the only one in play that has the necessary public profile and the fewest enemies. Perhaps people have other ideas but none of Johnson, May, Gove, Javid etc… tick this box. Hague from the Lords is a plausible left field choice for bettors if Wallace doesn’t want it but he’s not even listed on betfair!
As others have said, it would be indulgent indeed to replace chancellor again, so Hunt stays. Sunak and Mordaunt need to be on the ticket, some combo of FS, Home or Defence. And the Boris wing needs to coalesce around a figure head who would take a senior job in this unity cabinet. Dunno who.
Do all that and the goal from the Tory party perspective is still only to save sufficient seats to force Starmer into a soft or formal coalition with the SNP.
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1581934551483285504
A GE *might* be engineered however, but Truss won't call one this month.
Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581878818260029440
Reports are though that only a fraction of the drones launched hit their targets.
So, 28 Shahed-136s tried to attack Kyiv this morning, and only nearly 5 of them hit the city
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581937666672979968
Something like a penitential walk to the four corners of the Kingdom to raise money for charity would be a way of showing that anyone can dust themselves down and pick themselves up from failure - however dramatic and complete - and do some good.
Poll at 5PM getting hyped. Means we should finally get some post latest debacle, pre-next debacle polling. Surely going to be a new record lead for Labour.
Being declared bankrupt and getting a conviction will soon make their life hard enough that anyone contemplating it might well think twice. No mortgages, no bank account, other countries refusing you entry...
It might also be worth pointing out the extra pollution they are causing and fuel being burnt to bypass the bridge. Everything they are doing is totally counterproductive to their message. Keep hammering that home on the news and watch them try to explain it away.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1581939689384120322
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/17/hundreds-of-met-police-officers-not-sacked-for-serious-offences-finds-review
Whether the new person is any good I don't know, but for sure it feels like getting rid of Cressida Dick was the right call. Well done Sadiq Khan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary measures.
The Tories essentially have two options - a strong central leader who pulls them all into shape and tells them what they have to do. Or a first among equals leader who essentially governs by consensus among a collective of senior representatives of the different wings of the party.
It will not be the former because the state of the Party is such that it will be impossible not to cause civil war. And there is no leader who is strong enough to have that fight at a time of uncertainty.
Which means we’re into option 2. And that means that the quality that person needs to have is to be conciliatory, to stay on message and to be presentable to the public.
That, to me, is more of a Mordaunt-May-Wallace character than a Sunak character.
If I was advising the Tories I’d suggest that they need a presentable “front man” and they then need a core war cabinet of people like May, Mordaunt, Rishi, Gove, Hunt, IDS, Braverman (unfortunately) to essentially be the key decision makers, with only one goal: to run a tight ship for the next period of governing, focus on key priorities, and decide on policy for the next GE. I have no idea if the Tories have the will to be that unified, but that surely has to be the goal.
Is this the actual issue Jeremy Hunt is trying to fix at 11am.
Shock & awe https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1581925920994009088
Ah, well. Maybe it really is just because Jeremy's a bit of a c*** then?
And a belated good morning to one and all. Trying to do too many things at once in the Cole household today; it wouldn't of been so bad if we hadn't slept in!
BREAKING
I’m told UK regulators have identified one LDI fund at an asset manager which would face a series of “knockouts” & potential collapse if gilt yields had risen markedly this morning.
They believe the rest of the system is safe.
Important background to HMT statement today.
Anti-aircraft guns lost favour because they are not so good against fast missiles and aircraft, but they seem like the cheapest way to counter large numbers of cheap drones.
They are intended to swamp air defences through sheer weight of numbers as much as anything. Fortunately Russia doesn't yet appear to have very large numbers of them.
Look - they are doomed. This is way worse than the ERM debacle or the GFC. No political party has ever survived this kind of mess. So we can do without another talentless clown.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1581944121887191040
"To ask the monkey how to grind the organ..."
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
They have no choice. They have to limit the damage. With some notable exceptions almost anyone else they pick will be better. Their biggest challenge is to agree on someone.
They should run the leadership election from the Summer but skip the have an additional round to see the level of support amongst MPs. The final 2 in theory should go to the members but they get the candidates to agree that whoever gets the least votes then dropped out. Very similar to what happened with May vs. Leadsom in 2016. Could be done in 5 days.
That will be enough to get him elected, but it'll start running him into trouble pretty quickly in government unless he starts the hard work of getting support for his policies now.
#BREAKING Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev says "It appears Israel is preparing to supply arms to Ukraine. It would destroy Israeli-Russian diplomatic ties."
https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1581945650056691714
Liz is done for. Her whole attack line at PMQs last week was whether Labour would commit to a 2 year guarantee. Literally nothing she has proposed or advocated for has survived.
Chortle.
Question - of current Cabinet Ministers how many would have a seat round the table in a real competent administration. Never mind on policies just on raw ability to do the job of running a Department. Two?, three?, four if I'm really generous.
The next PM is to be judged very quickly. If the rubbish isn't put out the door on day one then I've no time for them. It's not just Mogg and Braverman and Coffey. Its also Badenoch, Cleverly, Brandon Lewis, Zahawi, Berry, Chloe Smith, Jayawardene, Trevelyan and Donelan. None of them are anywhere near being up to the job.
Who's left? If you were in the Cabinet through this sh*t-show then your judgement is under serious question. You took the Truss shilling and then didn't resign when they tanked the economy apparently without consulting you. When would you resign?
But OK - Wallace, Mordaunt and Sharma could stay on probation. But that's the three 'dodgy' seats filled. Now you need to fill a Cabinet with reliable talented people. Any idea where we can find them?
Step forward Grant Shapps? It is insulting to the British people to continue this farce any longer.
Appoint Peter Bone as PM so we can at least have a laugh as we slide into Third World status.
They may as well take this never-to-be-repeated chance to ditch the triple lock.....