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Is this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageIs this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com

What an awful set of front pages this morning for the Prime Minister with even the most loyal newspapers not being supportive.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,313
    first.... Like Rishi
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,484
    Second in line like Starmer
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 17
    Thank you Mike. These are extraordinary times. Until the weekend I wasn't entirely convinced that Truss would go.

    I think the tory brand is trashed. I guess the hope is that they replace her with some stabilising and sensible person to limit their now inevitable losses at the election. If they can survive with say 100-150 MPs intact from here they will have done well. 200 would be dreamland. As things currently stand they face a Canada-style wipeout. And be in doubt, there's enough anger out there to deliver just that.

    There's talk today of heading for an election. Although it is what the country needs to clear the air with a fresh start, I can't see how that can come about. Or are there enough tory MPs prepared to do the decent thing and effectively sign their own death warrants? Might one faction or another throw their toys out the pram and vote down the Government?
  • ThePoliticalPartyThePoliticalParty Posts: 428
    edited October 17
    4th like today’s u-turn
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    She will last the week.

    But she should not.

    Neither should this government. The country needs a GE.

    (Though I would be open to a GE being delayed slightly, if the prospect of a GE would further spook the markets.)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    From the BBC:

    "The chancellor Jeremy Hunt will make a statement later today where he is expected to set out how the government will pay for the plans set out in the mini-budget.

    He will bring forward "measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan", in a statement in the House of Commons.

    The chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss have been speaking over the weekend following her announcement of a U-turn on corporation tax on Friday. It also follows the sacking of Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng on the same day.

    The full details of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan are due to be released on 31 October."

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    It may look as if Hunt is in charge, and he is certainly going to come over as incredibly powerful, Liz Truss is well used to U-turns so from her point of view this is just another flip-flop day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Looks more like a completely disorganised civil war rather than the MPs singing with one voice against Truss to me
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks more like a completely disorganised civil war rather than the MPs singing with one voice against Truss to me

    It’s quite possible this stalemate situation persists for some time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks more like a completely disorganised civil war rather than the MPs singing with one voice against Truss to me

    It’s quite possible this stalemate situation persists for some time.
    Yes
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 17
    £ is up almost 1%

    The key question is - is that because traders like what Hunt is saying? Because they’re pricing in an imminent Truss departure, or because they anticipate higher interest rates after Baileys comments?

    If the latter, bond yields may well rise further, which is probably terminal for Truss.

    If it’s the first explanation, she may well be value to lay a 2022 departure, as bond yields should stabilise/fall.

    I think.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,300
    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks more like a completely disorganised civil war rather than the MPs singing with one voice against Truss to me

    It’s quite possible this stalemate situation persists for some time.
    Perfect time for a VONC.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 17
    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Truss should resign as soon as possible and we should probably have an early election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    Ironic that Liz Truss's will she, won't she coincides with Safer Gambling Week, 17-23 October.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Good morning, everyone.

    What time is the Prime Chancellor giving his statement?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 17
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
    I see it's reported that she has swapped out prescription meds to her friends.

    It's great, isn't it? A chain-smoking Health Secretary who passes around prescription drugs.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    What time is the Prime Chancellor giving his statement?

    Good morning

    The telegraph is reporting 11.00am
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    The King would ask Ms Truss:

    "Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Obviously a lot of focus on Tory MPs, and whether they will put the interests of the nation first. But that now applies even more to Liz Truss. Is she really going to sit in the Commons at 3.00 pm and pretend she retains the confidence of her party, the markets and the country.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581888199311626241
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Says a lot about the state of things that the government felt it had to announce that more mini Budget measures are being abandoned before the markets had even opened

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1581889180913000448

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Starmer could be PM within weeks.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    The King would ask Ms Truss:

    "Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
    99% you're correct.

    In my naivety I'd like to think Charles would in fact say to her,

    'Do you think, Ms Truss, that it might be time for a General Election?'
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer could be PM within weeks.

    How?

    I love the idea, obvs, but how?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer could be PM within weeks.

    I'm surprised some Conservative MPs have not crossed the floor. Or perhaps they have tried, and been rebuffed...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Nothing projects stability and calm quite like: https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1581888651264331777
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    The King would ask Ms Truss:

    "Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
    And she would reply:

    "Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Commons sitting due to start at 2.30.

    Rumours of announcement at 11.00

    So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    The King would ask Ms Truss:

    "Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
    And she would reply:

    "Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."
    :smiley:

    Although between his question and her reply there would be a 10 second pause.

    And after she left the room he'd be muttering something stronger than, 'oh dear, oh dear'
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
    Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Truss won’t go today because the statement will absorb all government time/energy.

    Later this week feels like a possibility though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Truss won’t go today because the statement will absorb all government time/energy.

    Later this week feels like a possibility though.

    PMQs will be a complete farce
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
    Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.
    I dont think they are. I think they’re making them up on the fly and briefing them to the press. The Tory Party and government’s discipline is simply falling apart.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
    Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.
    Suella Braverman has also gone all Colonel Kurtz.

    I thought the Remainer Parliament was the most unreal political time of my life but this might well now be eclipsing it.

    It is absolutely stark raving bonkers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    edited October 17
    The funny thing is that if Truss and Kwarteng had done and said almost nothing over the last 6 weeks they probably wouldn't have faced any problems, above and beyond what the Johnson administration had already caused/experienced.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer could be PM within weeks.

    I'm surprised some Conservative MPs have not crossed the floor. Or perhaps they have tried, and been rebuffed...
    Why would they with what it means to be Conservative so in flux? The Conservative Party next month could be a very different thing, with different policies, under Sunak or Hunt or Mordaunt. With Truss on the way out, there’s no need for MPs to leave.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Truss 'out' to 1.7 to go this year (Betfair). Was 1.5 on Smarkets yesterday.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    Commons sitting due to start at 2.30.

    Rumours of announcement at 11.00

    So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.


    So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.

    Not so sure about that. He needs to stabilise the markets pronto. On rare occasions that takes precedence.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Jeremy Hunt decides that "salami slicing" the mini-Budget is disastrously failing to calm the markets: big new tax rise and spending cut package now being brought forward to *this morning*. Statement expected at 11am, Commons statement 3.30pm

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1581883782436569089
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Andy_JS said:

    The funny thing is that if Truss and Kwarteng had done and said almost nothing over the last 6 weeks they probably wouldn't have faced any problems, above and beyond what the Johnson administration had already caused/experienced.

    Yes.

    Grievously self inflicted wounds.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Markets now running the country: the peril of losing your credibility. When I saw @KwasiKwarteng on the day of his mini-Budget, making the sums add up almost an afterthought. Said he would bring forward the debt-cutting plan "in the new year". Then Nov 23, then Oct 31, then now

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1581884793645453312
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    So, Johnson's decision to promote the fundamentalist authors of Britannia Unchained not working out well so far?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    The King would ask Ms Truss:

    "Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
    And she would reply:

    "Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."
    No, surely she’d tell him all about the energy price guarantee?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    I mean Truss changes to ir35 obviously
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Feels like the Government is trying to buy more time this morning.

    1. To try and stabilise the markets by showing how the books will balanced

    2. To try and stabilise the situation in Parliament and talk down mutinous Conservative MPs

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63278993 https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1581877124243558400
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    edited October 17
    Heathener said:

    Commons sitting due to start at 2.30.

    Rumours of announcement at 11.00

    So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.


    So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.

    Not so sure about that. He needs to stabilise the markets pronto. On rare occasions that takes precedence.
    If the cause of the turmoil was outwith the governments control then I’d have some sympathy for that argument. As it’s entirely self inflicted I don’t. If Hunt has any sense he’ll start with an apology to the House.

    I guess they want to get it out before the US opens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    O/T

    Crispin Blunt becomes the first Tory MP to call for Iain Duncan Smith to resign as leader in 2003.

    At 5 mins 40 secs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNf-_i8jWMU
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 17

    Markets now running the country:

    They're not. They're reacting to an eye-watering level of Government borrowing being used to fund tax cuts on the basis of wished-for growth further down the line. All concealed from the OBR and at a time of an already parlous economy.

    They were kissing the ball and praying for good luck before spinning it onto the roulette wheel. Gambling with the nation's finances. These are our mortgages, pensions, prices, savings, being gambled with by a Government with little or no fiscal experience.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    Pulpstar said:

    I mean Truss changes to ir35 obviously

    I'm not sure IR35 changes were what spooked the markets.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 17
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TVC:GB10Y

    Earliest of early signs of a small movement down in bond yields.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Certainly giving the Opposition ammunition:

    I can’t think of a single instance in history when changes to taxes or duties have been “announced” outside Parliament. In one instance when it was leaked, it led to the Chancellor’s immediate resignation. This is a sign of further panic, not greater stability.

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581893260452450305
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    I wonder if Hunt has told her over the weekend that we cannot afford her blank cheque for fuel subsidies and that is what has spooked the market so he needs to announce that the package will be much more limited, costed and focused like, err, the one that Rishi was proposing. That would surely be the ultimate humiliation since that is the only thing that poor Truss has been hanging on to.

    I really do not see how you produce a credible MTFS with a great big £200bn hole in the middle of it. If he doesn't do this the risk is that we have far sharper cuts in services and a much bigger increase in taxes to pay for it than might ultimately be necessary, depending on the future price of gas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    EXCL: Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet are receiving training sessions in how to be ministers

    Just two of them have been Secretaries of State before

    More than 20, including Starmer, have only served in the Commons during Labour’s opposition years

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe8ee1a-4d77-11ed-af60-3f894fe60060?shareToken=9aebd62674e1a69fd4adae2fa3c42722


    Maybe team Truss should have done this...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927

    Pulpstar said:

    I mean Truss changes to ir35 obviously

    I'm not sure IR35 changes were what spooked the markets.
    True - but the last thing we need with a huge deficit is to open the door to lots of people avoiding tax.

    So Hunt is absolutely right not to proceed with Truss's proposed changes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Maybe Charles will be going to the climate summit after all. After all, it was Truss who said he couldn't go.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,361
    Pulpstar said:

    Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.

    There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.

    I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss won’t go today because the statement will absorb all government time/energy.

    Later this week feels like a possibility though.

    PMQs will be a complete farce
    I wouldn’t be surprised if she is going to try and cling on with this desperate “look I stabilised the market” crap. If she went to the Johnson school of outstaying her welcome it could get messy.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Looks like today will be another busy day for me on the tax policy front. I thought I might get a week to focus on the day job.

    The mess and the damage to our international reputation is completely self inflicted. What a joke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

    Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

    For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
    Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.
    I dont think they are. I think they’re making them up on the fly and briefing them to the press. The Tory Party and government’s discipline is simply falling apart.
    Yes, it suggests that no one has any authority. It won't change until Truss goes. She is ultimately responsible for the situation. Hunt can only do so much in the position he is in.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    MikeL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I mean Truss changes to ir35 obviously

    I'm not sure IR35 changes were what spooked the markets.
    True - but the last thing we need with a huge deficit is to open the door to lots of people avoiding tax.

    So Hunt is absolutely right not to proceed with Truss's proposed changes.
    How is it I know several people who work for single employers but still get paid through a self owned company rather than PAYE? All are varying distances through their plan of moving to a zero capital gains tax country for 5 years to crystallise the gains.

    The chancellor should announce that with immediate effect, you must be a foreign tax resident for 25 years rather than only 5 to avoid uk capital gains tax.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Andy_JS said:

    Truss should resign as soon as possible and we should probably have an early election.

    Even if the Tories were to decide to lose power a year or two earlier than necessary, and hold a general election, they would surely wait until they had a different leader to Truss to campaign for them in that election.

    This makes me suspect that the appointment of Hunt has bought Truss some time. Tories now have the luxury of taking some time to have a really good internal struggle over who should come next, because Hunt should prevent imminent total economic collapse. The pressure to agree a unity candidate to replace Truss is much reduced.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    I don't think Hunt will change the fuel subsidy because it's a one-off - ie doesn't last indefinitely into the future.

    One-off costs don't really matter in the long run - if something only lasts one or two years then it has no impact at all on whether debt falls as a % of GDP in year 3.

    The point about IT, CT, NIC changes is they are assumed to be indefinite.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Pulpstar said:

    Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.

    Firm that only exists because of the way ir35 currently works says ir35 won’t change after all.

    With the 25% level of corporation tax - I think the calculations would make returning ir35 to the old approach won’t cost anything like even the September estimates.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    Hong Kong protester dragged into Manchester Chinese consulate grounds and beaten up
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63280519

    That will give the Home and Foreign Secretaries a headache this morning. Suella Braverman & James Cleverly, at time of writing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    Heathener said:

    Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

    I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

    One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

    No it didn't, the polls were just as bad for the Major Tories in 1994 as 1997 if not worse. They just ensured 3 extra years in government
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    Jeremy Hunt decides that "salami slicing" the mini-Budget is disastrously failing to calm the markets: big new tax rise and spending cut package now being brought forward to *this morning*. Statement expected at 11am, Commons statement 3.30pm

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1581883782436569089

    Will it come with OBR analysis of how it adds up?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,361
    Truss is going nowhere unless she resigns. The current Conservative Party uniting round a single candidate? Or alternatively putting it back to the members? Do me a favour.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    DougSeal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.

    There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.

    I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
    I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    Heathener said:

    Thank you Mike. These are extraordinary times. Until the weekend I wasn't entirely convinced that Truss would go.

    I think the tory brand is trashed. I guess the hope is that they replace her with some stabilising and sensible person to limit their now inevitable losses at the election. If they can survive with say 100-150 MPs intact from here they will have done well. 200 would be dreamland. As things currently stand they face a Canada-style wipeout. And be in doubt, there's enough anger out there to deliver just that.

    There's talk today of heading for an election. Although it is what the country needs to clear the air with a fresh start, I can't see how that can come about. Or are there enough tory MPs prepared to do the decent thing and effectively sign their own death warrants? Might one faction or another throw their toys out the pram and vote down the Government?

    No, a Canada style wipeout would be the Tories not only losing by a landslide but even falling behind a populist Farage led party as the main party of the right on seats as well as votes. That is what happened to their Canadian cousins in 1993 when the Canadian Tories got just 2 seats on 16% of the vote compared to 52 seats for the populist right Reform party with the Liberals winning by a landslide with 41% and 177 seats
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    edited October 17
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Truss 2022 Exit drifting but Truss to be leader at GE also drifting - now 9.2.

    So market more confident Truss will go pre GE but just maybe not quite as soon as expected.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer could be PM within weeks.

    How?

    I love the idea, obvs, but how?
    It only needs 40 Tory MPs to decide an election is better than having yet another PM "without a mandate".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    edited October 17
    As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.

    Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

    Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
    He's completely untested at the very top of government i.e. not one big offices of state and without a leadership campaign we can't see how he will perform in the spotlight.

    Looks like strong potential for another mistake to me.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet are receiving training sessions in how to be ministers

    Just two of them have been Secretaries of State before

    More than 20, including Starmer, have only served in the Commons during Labour’s opposition years

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe8ee1a-4d77-11ed-af60-3f894fe60060?shareToken=9aebd62674e1a69fd4adae2fa3c42722


    Maybe team Truss should have done this...

    Essentially the same issue that Labour faced in 1997.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Which is why Sunak and Hunt are clear lays.

    If there is such a candidate it could be someone no-one has thought of yet.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 468
    That Truss policy platform in full:

    A u-turn a day keeps the IMF away.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
    He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    There is one thing I am absolutely confident about and that is that there will be no imminent general election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
    You assume the Truss backers do not have buyer's remorse. If Truss goes now, party and country need an experienced replacement which means Rishi, Theresa May or even Boris. If Truss hangs on for another six months, you could add Jeremy Hunt to the list but if Truss can hang on till summer, why would she need to resign then?

    Ben Wallace has now said he is willing to be considered. Ironically, if he still hankers after the Nato job, then Theresa May returning to Downing Street would remove his main domestic rival.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    So, somehow, the Tories are conspiring to make things worse, it’s mind boggling. Do they like the drama and want to stay in the headlines?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    DougSeal said:

    Truss is going nowhere unless she resigns. The current Conservative Party uniting round a single candidate? Or alternatively putting it back to the members? Do me a favour.

    Here's the thing: everyone faces extinction if she stays.

    So, she won't be allowed to fight a GE and, therefore, Keir Starmer won't be the *next* Prime Minister.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    TOPPING said:

    As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.

    Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

    Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.

    The membership can go hang.

    They've brought this economic mess on the country and should be allowed nowhere the next leadership decision.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    I think most members would accept Rishi.

    He got 43% last time and would almost certainly poll more in any new vote given what's happened in the last few weeks.

    And the key point is that most Conservative members see it as a social organisation and are not very ideological.

    Of course there are plenty of hardcore nutters but they are in the minority.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

    Does Wallace actually want the job?
    He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the
    Translated: I like Ben Wallace therefore he is the only candidate
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.

    Some tweets on this today:

    AFP photographer @YasuyoshiChiba captured the moment a kamikaze drone dived on its target this morning in Kyiv.
    https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1581898167129296896

    Remains of an Iranian kamikaze drone that was shot down in #Kyiv
    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1581899069630205954

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    TOPPING said:

    Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

    Fuck 'em

    They got us into this mess.

    Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    This is a particularly good open-source summary of why negotiated peace in Ukraine is likely not viable

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

    Fuck 'em

    They got us into this mess.

    Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
    Who's going to deliver the leaflets?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Tory MP Vicky Atkins asked if Truss should lead into the next election "er, she is the prime minister at the moment" #r4today
    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1581901772544581633
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    edited October 17
    I did actually close out my Truss out in 2022 position. Things drag on for longer than we would wish, no PM ever has voluntarily left because they believed themselves not up to the job, and the 22 as it stands needs to wait a year and even if the letters go in them what next?

    As Portillo said it would have to be an acclamation but who? The only person with the credibility and moral authority to lead is loathed by the membership.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    TOPPING said:

    As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.

    Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

    Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.

    You assume the Truss-voting membership have not read the papers and realised they've been sold a pup.
This discussion has been closed.