The periods that are a long time in politics are getting shorter. To be strictly fair this a report on last Thursday's QT in The Herald's email bulletin for today, so they're about as far behind the curve as one could be.
He looks sixpence short of the full shilling, too.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 9m Replying to @TelePolitics 💬"Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal'"
Still not convinced Rishi is going to be able to hold the party together as PM. Also Hunt has just indefinitely stalled the income tax cut he was gunning for in 2024…
But hey, if the Tory Party can get behind him let’s go for it.
Too many opposed to Rishi (and it's an FU to the members) where Hunt was simply not wanted.
Liz Truss = Henry VI circa 1470-71 Jeremy Hunt = The Earl of Warwick
Pretty grim outlook for the rest of the country, then.
Have we a candidate for Henry Tudor then? Can't think of a candidate in any of the three parties with some Welsh origin, unless it's step forward Stephen Kinnock!
By sheer unliklihood of getting the top job I'm sure someone could match Henry even if not Welsh.
What's really needed is a grand alignment of corp tax, divi tax (raised), employer NI (Binned), income tax so that the "structure above" doesn't affect take home pay.
George Osborne had the chance to fold NI and IC into one and instead kicked into into the long grass. Massive missed opportunity. Should be one tax payment, with a break down of where it goes on your pay slip.
And yes I know I know, pensioners, don't pay NI, but IC. But there has to be a way to mitigate against that.
Oh that's easy - a different tax allowance / different income tax rate at 67 onwards.
This was sent to Tory MPs a few moments ago from No10/11
It
- does not signal contrition - suggests PM and Chancellor here for "long term reforms" - praises the energy price cap policy without noting its been rewritten - blames global factors
The periods that are a long time in politics are getting shorter. To be strictly fair this a report on last Thursday's QT in The Herald's email bulletin for today, so they're about as far behind the curve as one could be.
He looks sixpence short of the full shilling, too.
What's really needed is a grand alignment of corp tax, divi tax (raised), employer NI (Binned), income tax so that the "structure above" doesn't affect take home pay.
George Osborne had the chance to fold NI and IC into one and instead kicked into into the long grass. Massive missed opportunity. Should be one tax payment, with a break down of where it goes on your pay slip.
And yes I know I know, pensioners, don't pay NI, but IC. But there has to be a way to mitigate against that.
Pensioners used to get a higher tax free allowance didn't they? That would be one option.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
This seems to be the Labour line.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581956165583269889 Truss is now an empty husk. Her party encouraged her economically illiterate irresponsibility. Only weeks ago Hunt wanted to go even further than her on tax cuts. Neither of them have a mandate from the British people. #GeneralElectionNow,/i>
Hmm. Ive always been iffy on the mandate point, but if we're mostly returning to ore Truss plans and standard fiscal corrections then Hunt does have a mandate for that.
Wonder if we might see the Gov't fall with enough MPs crossing the floor ?
Has to be tempting for those in the most marginal red wall seats. Wallis will be the first I reckon.
Crossing the floor isn't easy. It's not simply a case of carrying on your old job with another rosette. High Peak's Robert Largan, for example, would probably not feel too out of place in a Starmer-led Labour Party. But the High Peak Labour Party is infested with Corbynites and would make his life unbearable, and do all they could to have him replaced by his Corbynite predecessor.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
I also don't understand how a bunch of well paid employees working 5 days a week for a company becoming "contractors" working 5 days a week for a client now able to claim expenses and not pay employer's NI will generate growth.
That was something that was already covered by the IR35 rules and the main issue was that HMRC were rubbish at enforcing it. So rather than get their own house in order and clamp down on that they decided to put all the burden onto end user employers who then took the easiest route of having no more contractors outside IR35 at all.
In 6 years I had two HMRC IR35 investigations (or rather my accountants did) and passed both by a mile. And yet as soon as the rules on who decided changed, my biggest client simply stuck everyone inside IR35. As have most of my other clients.
The upshot of this is one of three routes generally.
The contractors move overseas - so the Government loses tax revenue and the industry loses much needed expertise The contractors retire - so the Government loses tax revenue and the industry loses much needed expertise The contractors decide to become employees with another company - on much lower wages so again the Government loses revenue.
These are the practical results of blanket decisions which is what is happening because of the 2017/21 changes. As always what the theorists forget is that people will always act in a way that is best for them and their families. They have no interest in what effect that has on Government incomes and will always chose the route best suited to them. That is exactly what has happened in a lot of industries.
Get your NI paid like other employees
Your comment is gibberish.
Yes IR35 is complicated, it isn't just a case of people not wanting to pay National Insurance. In some cases it can work that way, but it is wrong to generalise about it.
IR35 is a mess because multiple people have fiddled with their bit within HMRC / the treasury without thought to the bigger / long term picture
The rules over expenses are a prime example - back in 2015 I explained that changing the rules for umbrella workers would create big problems when the next set of IR35 changes (which were obvious back then) came into place. And that was exactly what occurred in 2017 as whole teams of developers left HMRC / DWP in Newcastle because they couldn't afford to continue their weekly commute.
Within 6 months HMRC fixed the issue by outsourcing the work to Capgem / Equal Experts who then claimed everyone was outside....
This was sent to Tory MPs a few moments ago from No10/11
It
- does not signal contrition - suggests PM and Chancellor here for "long term reforms" - praises the energy price cap policy without noting its been rewritten - blames global factors
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: it’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right. They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from thevopposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
True, but they'll be helped by the fact that Labour is in no position to argue that a party which has recently made a catastrophic choice of leader, but now claims to be reformed, can't be trusted.
The Tories will seek to blame Truss for all this. But they as a party and a government are responsible. They all did it, not just her.
The Tory Party is guilty of enabling a lot of this lunacy. The fact Liz Truss was even spoken about as a credible PM shows you just how far they have gone off the deep end.
Listen to Hunt’s statement just now and compare and contrast to Liz’s press conference on Friday.
It is like a spell has been broken. We have been governed by people so patently unsuited to governing for so long.
Which would be all well and good, No12, if the Conservative Party Membership were on board with all this, but that is anything but the case, as we know from the reports from Hyufd and others here about what the lunatics in the asylum are actually saying.
I agree and another reason why the party needs time in opposition whatever happens to learn the basics again. It needs to encourage new members to come through and renew it. It’s very difficult to do that in government.
Unfortunately I suspect it has an almighty battle ahead of it because, absent a moment of extreme group clarity, I doubt its members will elect a sane LOTO after the party loses power. It will take time and patience (and decent folk staying the course) to steer it back. I have confidence it can do it - if Labour managed it after Corbyn then anyone can.
Well said, mate.
Good luck.
Unfortunately they have probably lost me to fight that battle themselves - I could perhaps drift back in time. Right now I don’t think I can really see any alternative to voting Labour next time.
Fuck Right Off. She said we had no choice. That Every Measure now scrapped was Essential for growth. That those opposing them were the Anti-Growth Coalition.
This is an utter farce now. Imagine her taking PMQs on Wednesday...
We had Boris as a figurehead PM whilst Sunak did the serious stuff for years.
We still need someone to stroll about in Kyiv don't we ?
The difference between the two, like Blair and Brown, is that Johnson really had no firm policies on anything, and therefore just let his Chancellor run the domestic stuff.
Truss didn't want to do that (and she doesn't have to) and installed key allies to drive her domestic agenda as well.
Truss then realised neither the markets nor the British public actually liked the things she said she'd do (even though the membership did) and is now a dead duck. How you can survive such an obvious undermining of your entire main policy is beyond me. It's even worse than May. She tied her mast to her Brexit deal and kept trying to ram it through. Here Truss has appointed someone to junk her flagship policies in the space of twenty minutes.
She's completely without authority and needs to resign.
However, the country can't manage another eight week Conservative navel gazing contest, which in all reality will take us beyond Christmas. So we would've had no effective government from end of June to 2nd January 2023. What a total joke. It might work for Belgium. I'm not sure it'll work for us.
New- Just heard the Speaker has granted Labour an Urgent Question- labour is calling the Pm to come to the House
“Sorry Mr Speaker, Jeremy is busy in appointments until 3:30…. Oh you mean Liz? In that case I’ll just need to check with Jeremy, I’m not sure if it’s her nap time or not. Can you hold?”
Fuck Right Off. She said we had no choice. That Every Measure now scrapped was Essential for growth. That those opposing them were the Anti-Growth Coalition.
This is an utter farce now. Imagine her taking PMQs on Wednesday...
It's peak popcorn time - a PMQs for the ages.
Heck it will be a PMQ for the ages even if Coffey does it instead.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
Right getting very paranoid now. This is Tim Stanley in the telegraph
As for the Tories, Truss will be gone within days – weeks at the most – perhaps replaced by Hunt himself, who has none of Rishi Sunak’s baggage and does a good impression of a safe pair of hands. I am not saying there is a conspiracy afoot. There’s no need. Our system is ancient, sophisticated and surprisingly transparent. We have a way of doing things, old bean, and we make it gently inconceivable to do it any other way. This is the dictatorship of consensus.
Fuck Right Off. She said we had no choice. That Every Measure now scrapped was Essential for growth. That those opposing them were the Anti-Growth Coalition.
This is an utter farce now. Imagine her taking PMQs on Wednesday...
Perhaps Wednesday is one for Rayner. "So, Prime Minister... How's it going? Are you ok?"
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
Seems like Liz Truss isn't the only one that doesn't understand international markets...
The financial future of South African cricket has been perilous for years as its cash reserves didn’t so much dwindle away as gush in a torrent of waste and mismanagement, so perhaps it should be no surprise that the silver bullet solution – the SA20 – isn’t finding things easy.
Details, of which there are many, aren’t the issue for the purposes of explaining the problem. The SA20 cannot succeed unless it is broadcast in India. The deadline for submissions of tender for Indian broadcasters was on Wednesday, October 12. None, apparently, submitted a bid.
Wonder if we might see the Gov't fall with enough MPs crossing the floor ?
Has to be tempting for those in the most marginal red wall seats. Wallis will be the first I reckon.
Crossing the floor isn't easy. It's not simply a case of carrying on your old job with another rosette. High Peak's Robert Largan, for example, would probably not feel too out of place in a Starmer-led Labour Party. But the High Peak Labour Party is infested with Corbynites and would make his life unbearable, and do all they could to have him replaced by his Corbynite predecessor.
I get the feeling Largan is very well respected by his neighbouring Labour MPs as well, he tabled a question a couple of months back at, iirc, PMQs with Rayner leading for Labour and she went out of her way to acknowledge and echo his input.
The Tory strategy from here is very clear: “It’s not our fault, it’s Truss’s, it’ll be tough but you can trust us to put it right.” They’ll be fully aided in creating this narrative by large parts of the media, so from the opposition parties’ perspective it’s vital to get out in front of it. This is a disaster created by the Conservative party, not one woman; and they’ll do it again given half a chance.
This seems to be the Labour line.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581956165583269889 Truss is now an empty husk. Her party encouraged her economically illiterate irresponsibility. Only weeks ago Hunt wanted to go even further than her on tax cuts. Neither of them have a mandate from the British people. #GeneralElectionNow,/i>
Hmm. Ive always been iffy on the mandate point, but if we're mostly returning to ore Truss plans and standard fiscal corrections then Hunt does have a mandate for that.
Labour's strategy must be to quietly go through the motions without distracting the Government from digging its hole. It hasn't stopped yet, though the rate has slowed a little of late. Calling for a GE - which it knows ain't gonna happen - is the right thing to do just now. Substantive policy proposals can follow later once the digging has completely stopped.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
While I disagree with @MoonRabbit that the energy cap has anything to do with the issue Truss finds herself in, the combination of the energy cap and the unchecked tax cuts was too much for the market..
Right getting very paranoid now. This is Tim Stanley in the telegraph
As for the Tories, Truss will be gone within days – weeks at the most – perhaps replaced by Hunt himself, who has none of Rishi Sunak’s baggage and does a good impression of a safe pair of hands. I am not saying there is a conspiracy afoot. There’s no need. Our system is ancient, sophisticated and surprisingly transparent. We have a way of doing things, old bean, and we make it gently inconceivable to do it any other way. This is the dictatorship of consensus.
So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?
Wonder if we might see the Gov't fall with enough MPs crossing the floor ?
Has to be tempting for those in the most marginal red wall seats. Wallis will be the first I reckon.
Crossing the floor isn't easy. It's not simply a case of carrying on your old job with another rosette. High Peak's Robert Largan, for example, would probably not feel too out of place in a Starmer-led Labour Party. But the High Peak Labour Party is infested with Corbynites and would make his life unbearable, and do all they could to have him replaced by his Corbynite predecessor.
This draws attention to another issue, the Labour party are still 'infested with Corbynites'. It gets forgotten and overlooked. People just focus on Starmer. The labour MP's and the party membership are potentially even more dangerous than the people who bought us Liz Truss.
1) Small State Libertarianism is dead 2) Trickle Down economics is dead 3) You can't buck the market 4) The magic money tree doesn't exist
If this becomes political orthodoxy across the main politcal parties that would be a very good thing.
The problem is that everyone is ignoring the underlying issue which is that the current ponzi scheme model of our taxation and benefits system is unsustainable. So whilst I agree with you on some of these, the small state bit is inevitable either by planned reduction or by inevitable collapse. Truss has caused huge damage by trying to force the issue in the way she did so that people believe they have to stick with the current system. They can't, not in the medium to long term.
The model is sustainable if it is done properly. In previous threads I seem to recall you arguing for something like a Victorian welfare system. Now that is something that is *unsustainable*.
One thing going unnoticed, Labour response to the omnishambles budget was reverse a lot of the proposed tax cuts, but immediately spend that money on new things. Anybody like to ask them if that is realistic?
I think if anyone tried to critique the Labour party at the moment to deflect away from the serious mess the Tory government has put us all in, they'd be laughed out of the room.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
People didn't want to lends us money cheaply to fund tax cuts for the rich. Quite why Truss and Kwarteng thought the people who lend us money, mostly based overseas, would be queuing up to do so was pretty weird but backed up by a load of think tanks full of privileged rich youngsters who have never created anything apart from hot air.
The details beyond that show their incompetence but not the core problem with Trussonomics.
The fear was that with the UK out of the EU it would become very expensive. EU residents were not able to apply for it when we were in the EU.
If the visitor VAT-free shopping is ready by Christmas, I will be - well, my wife will be - keeping the UK retail sector alive!
More seriously, the difference between the Sunak and Kwarteng approaches to this one small issue, tells you all you need to know about why Kwarteng was right and Sunak wrong.
How would it have gone with people who are really struggling if the government then allows people to travel in from other countries and buy stuff they can't afford for 20% cheaper?
I imagine It's the political optics not the economics that has caused this to be reversed though I am sure someone will be along to correct t me shortly!
It’s completely the political optics. VAT-free shopping is a big part of what makes the UK such an attractive tourist destination.
Economically it should be a no-brainer for the Chancellor, the VAT lost on consumer goods for export (clothes, jewelery, electronics etc) is offset by both the increase in tourism, and by the revenues from flights, hotels, entertainment and other industries that rely on tourism - doubly so, at a time when that tourism industry needs a massive boost after the pandemic.
Instead, Sunak decided that the UK “couldn’t afford” to open up VAT-free shopping to EU visitors, so we stopped all the American, Asian and Middle Eastern tourists from also taking part, thus making the UK a significantly less desirable place to visit.
Following Hunt's statement (which I support) Truss has to resign today
And if she resigned today, who would be her immediate successor - Coffey?
It is why I am green on Coffey next PM.
An obese, chain-smoking cretin who treats medication like sweeties and makes even Truss seem a tad charismatic? You certainly are covering all the bases!
What's really needed is a grand alignment of corp tax, divi tax (raised), employer NI (Binned), income tax so that the "structure above" doesn't affect take home pay.
George Osborne had the chance to fold NI and IC into one and instead kicked into into the long grass. Massive missed opportunity. Should be one tax payment, with a break down of where it goes on your pay slip.
And yes I know I know, pensioners, don't pay NI, but IC. But there has to be a way to mitigate against that.
Pensioners used to get a higher tax free allowance didn't they? That would be one option.
Also, what about employer NI?
As you've already said, an extra tax free allowance for pensioners will sort that out. NI scrapped (Ers and Ees) Additional allowance of (say) 50% the PA for pensioners (so about £6k more). Income tax to 33%. A pensioner on £18k income will therefore pay NO tax. But a pensioner on £100k will pay quite a bit more. I'm crying, I really am. I'm sure £100k a year with no mortgage isn't enough to live on.......
I suppose if you didn't want to be brave, you could retain Ers NIC, but scrapping it seems the best option in the longer term.
If Truss does go our politics will be getting as ruthless as Australia. No worries about dumping leaders over there.
Will she even qualify for a picture on the Downing Street staircase?
It will be one to explain to future generations, certainly. "May was 2017-2019, Johnson was 2019-2022, Truss was for a few weeks in 2022, then Sunak* was 2022..." "Hold on, what happened to Truss?" "Well she wasn't very good. Anyway, yes, Sunak*..."
*To pluck a name out of thin air for illustrative processes. I still think he'll manage to peak too soon again.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
People didn't want to lends us money cheaply to fund tax cuts for the rich. Quite why Truss and Kwarteng thought the people who lend us money, mostly based overseas, would be queuing up to do so was pretty weird but backed up by a load of think tanks full of privileged rich youngsters who have never created anything apart from hot air.
The details beyond that show their incompetence but not the core problem with Trussonomics.
Right getting very paranoid now. This is Tim Stanley in the telegraph
As for the Tories, Truss will be gone within days – weeks at the most – perhaps replaced by Hunt himself, who has none of Rishi Sunak’s baggage and does a good impression of a safe pair of hands. I am not saying there is a conspiracy afoot. There’s no need. Our system is ancient, sophisticated and surprisingly transparent. We have a way of doing things, old bean, and we make it gently inconceivable to do it any other way. This is the dictatorship of consensus.
So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?
Fun fact between 1993 and 2016 ie 23 years there were only 4 chancellors of the exchequer....we have had as many in the last 4 months
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581979173597630464 As things stand (always subject to change): Liz Truss not keen to come to Commons for Lab UQ. Now battle to get someone in her place. Am told no ministers so far keen but Penny Mordaunt has said she'll do it
Right getting very paranoid now. This is Tim Stanley in the telegraph
As for the Tories, Truss will be gone within days – weeks at the most – perhaps replaced by Hunt himself, who has none of Rishi Sunak’s baggage and does a good impression of a safe pair of hands. I am not saying there is a conspiracy afoot. There’s no need. Our system is ancient, sophisticated and surprisingly transparent. We have a way of doing things, old bean, and we make it gently inconceivable to do it any other way. This is the dictatorship of consensus.
So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?
Maybe Kwasi will be back. He was certainly exciting.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
Any chance of a cabinet resignation ? . That would surely be the end of Truss .
I really think a number of Cabinet resignations is the way this ends.
Aren't they predominantly loyalists? I am comfortable now we have a centre-right one nation Conservative Government, although I would very much like to see the back of Braverman.
On Radio 4, the vox- pop voters are loving this shiny new Government, suggesting Truss should be given a chance.
PARLY @PARLYapp The PM can’t be summoned to the Commons to answer questions by the Speaker or anyone else. The Speaker has the power to grant a UQ but it is up to the government who responds.
It's arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
People didn't want to lends us money cheaply to fund tax cuts for the rich. Quite why Truss and Kwarteng thought the people who lend us money, mostly based overseas, would be queuing up to do so was pretty weird but backed up by a load of think tanks full of privileged rich youngsters who have never created anything apart from hot air.
The details beyond that show their incompetence but not the core problem with Trussonomics.
This take doesn't stand up if you do the maths.
Lending is sentiment based as much as maths based. Most western economies were going to be doing an expensive energy package and the alternative of doing nothing was worse. The UK was unique in wanting to borrow for tax cuts for the rich on top with a bizarre tenuous at best link to growth and promises of far more to come.
Yo all me dudes. Or something equally street. What a farce! I see only two possible outcomes. Truss is gone before PMQs and a coronation takes place with an election to be pre announced for early June giving a few months to stabilise the economy and prepare, i cant see another winter election, but maybe late spring..... Or the Tory party splits apart into Hunt/May/Govites versus Spartans, Borisites etc and teams up with Nigel and we stumble into an election in short order Labour are home and hosed
During the campaign initially her team were offering hope not handouts. They even went on TV, Jake Berry for one, saying as such.
She u turned that before she won the leadership.
Exactly, and that made me think she would be more sensible than I feared. That lasted about two whole days, until we had the half-a-budget with no spending statement.
If Truss does go our politics will be getting as ruthless as Australia. No worries about dumping leaders over there.
Will she even qualify for a picture on the Downing Street staircase?
It will be one to explain to future generations, certainly. "May was 2017-2019, Johnson was 2019-2022, Truss was for a few weeks in 2022, then Sunak* was 2022..." "Hold on, what happened to Truss?" "Well she wasn't very good. Anyway, yes, Sunak*..."
*To pluck a name out of thin air for illustrative processes. I still think he'll manage to peak too soon again.
If we are looking back from 20 or 30 years time, I do think Truss will be remembered. It was during her months that the Queen died and Britain discovered that its true position in the world was far less significant than everyone thought it was
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better. https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581979173597630464 As things stand (always subject to change): Liz Truss not keen to come to Commons for Lab UQ. Now battle to get someone in her place. Am told no ministers so far keen but Penny Mordaunt has said she'll do it
ha!!!! shes toast. Off playing farmy farm.
Penny might as well do it as an audition for the leadership/great office.
1) Small State Libertarianism is dead 2) Trickle Down economics is dead 3) You can't buck the market 4) The magic money tree doesn't exist
If this becomes political orthodoxy across the main politcal parties that would be a very good thing.
The problem is that everyone is ignoring the underlying issue which is that the current ponzi scheme model of our taxation and benefits system is unsustainable. So whilst I agree with you on some of these, the small state bit is inevitable either by planned reduction or by inevitable collapse. Truss has caused huge damage by trying to force the issue in the way she did so that people believe they have to stick with the current system. They can't, not in the medium to long term.
The model is sustainable if it is done properly. In previous threads I seem to recall you arguing for something like a Victorian welfare system. Now that is something that is *unsustainable*.
No it really isn't. It was designed as a safety net but has ballooned far beyond what it was designed for. I have never advocated a Victorian system. What I advocate is what the Atlee government intended it for and nothing more.
The current system simply cannot cope as the tax burden needed to maintain it is unsustainable.
If Truss does go our politics will be getting as ruthless as Australia. No worries about dumping leaders over there.
Will she even qualify for a picture on the Downing Street staircase?
It will be one to explain to future generations, certainly. "May was 2017-2019, Johnson was 2019-2022, Truss was for a few weeks in 2022, then Sunak* was 2022..." "Hold on, what happened to Truss?" "Well she wasn't very good. Anyway, yes, Sunak*..."
*To pluck a name out of thin air for illustrative processes. I still think he'll manage to peak too soon again.
If we are looking back from 20 or 30 years time, I do think Truss will be remembered. It was during her months that the Queen died and Britain discovered that its true position in the world was far less significant than everyone thought it was
Given the circumstances, doesn't that go for any nation relying on credit?
If Truss does go our politics will be getting as ruthless as Australia. No worries about dumping leaders over there.
Will she even qualify for a picture on the Downing Street staircase?
It will be one to explain to future generations, certainly. "May was 2017-2019, Johnson was 2019-2022, Truss was for a few weeks in 2022, then Sunak* was 2022..." "Hold on, what happened to Truss?" "Well she wasn't very good. Anyway, yes, Sunak*..."
*To pluck a name out of thin air for illustrative processes. I still think he'll manage to peak too soon again.
If we are looking back from 20 or 30 years time, I do think Truss will be remembered. It was during her months that the Queen died and Britain discovered that its true position in the world was far less significant than everyone thought it was
The latter point is incorrect i think. We might not be big enough to buck the spivs, speculators and markets but nobody is. The interference from all and sundry shows how important the stability of the UK is to the world. Being shit doesnt equal being irrelevant
Keeping Truss hidden away in the attic isn't going to work. She needs to face reality and do the decent thing.
If the Tory's can't convince her to do that then we should have an election.
Almost every politician will have gone through tough patches on their way up, and the strategy of keeping your head down until the storm passes very often works - provided you don't get caught out having told any lies. So it becomes hard wired as an instinctive response. But it doesn't work at the top as the stakes are high enough that there are always journos digging and public interest even long after. As the clown eventually discovered.
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better. https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
1) Small State Libertarianism is dead 2) Trickle Down economics is dead 3) You can't buck the market 4) The magic money tree doesn't exist
If this becomes political orthodoxy across the main politcal parties that would be a very good thing.
The problem is that everyone is ignoring the underlying issue which is that the current ponzi scheme model of our taxation and benefits system is unsustainable. So whilst I agree with you on some of these, the small state bit is inevitable either by planned reduction or by inevitable collapse. Truss has caused huge damage by trying to force the issue in the way she did so that people believe they have to stick with the current system. They can't, not in the medium to long term.
The model is sustainable if it is done properly. In previous threads I seem to recall you arguing for something like a Victorian welfare system. Now that is something that is *unsustainable*.
No it really isn't. It was designed as a safety net but has ballooned far beyond what it was designed for. I have never advocated a Victorian system. What I advocate is what the Atlee government intended it for and nothing more.
The current system simply cannot cope as the tax burden needed to maintain it is unsustainable.
+1 - working class families where parents are working shouldn't need tax credits to survive. Wages from their work should be enough for them to live on.
1) Small State Libertarianism is dead 2) Trickle Down economics is dead 3) You can't buck the market 4) The magic money tree doesn't exist
If this becomes political orthodoxy across the main politcal parties that would be a very good thing.
The problem is that everyone is ignoring the underlying issue which is that the current ponzi scheme model of our taxation and benefits system is unsustainable. So whilst I agree with you on some of these, the small state bit is inevitable either by planned reduction or by inevitable collapse. Truss has caused huge damage by trying to force the issue in the way she did so that people believe they have to stick with the current system. They can't, not in the medium to long term.
The model is sustainable if it is done properly. In previous threads I seem to recall you arguing for something like a Victorian welfare system. Now that is something that is *unsustainable*.
No it really isn't. It was designed as a safety net but has ballooned far beyond what it was designed for. I have never advocated a Victorian system. What I advocate is what the Atlee government intended it for and nothing more.
The current system simply cannot cope as the tax burden needed to maintain it is unsustainable.
+1 - working class families where parents are working shouldn't need tax credits to survive. Wages from their work should be enough for them to live on.
At one point we got to the ridiculous situation where people on nearly top rate of tax were getting tax credits. Farcical system, taking money off people, then giving it some of it back after filling in a load of extra paperwork.
Gov source: "I don't see how she has the authority to govern. Whips are rendered pointless. But can't poss change leader AGAIN without going to the country. If we go to the country, I genuinely believe my as yet not conceived children will be at uni before we're in power again" https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581982067071496193
The expectation is we get over 150 letters to Sir Graham, and the resignations push it to over the 179 magic figure.
How do they ever expect to get to 150 letters, when Sir Graham is bound to declare when he has received 57(?) letters, and hold a vote of the PCP at the earliest opportunity?
Comments
Has to be tempting for those in the most marginal red wall seats. Wallis will be the first I reckon.
Somebody end this please.
Also, what about employer NI?
Umm. No. Go away. ~AA
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1581970274437648385
It's here.. the IEA response... 🥁
"The government may have abandoned much of the central tax elements of their growth strategy, but that makes it even more important to get on with regulatory reform.” https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1581970274437648385/photo/1
New: The Scottish Government confirms there would be “checks” on goods to and from England and Wales if Scotland was independent
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1581970407141552129
It also fondly imagines that the CTA remains in place…..something not within their gift…..
High Peak's Robert Largan, for example, would probably not feel too out of place in a Starmer-led Labour Party. But the High Peak Labour Party is infested with Corbynites and would make his life unbearable, and do all they could to have him replaced by his Corbynite predecessor.
The rules over expenses are a prime example - back in 2015 I explained that changing the rules for umbrella workers would create big problems when the next set of IR35 changes (which were obvious back then) came into place. And that was exactly what occurred in 2017 as whole teams of developers left HMRC / DWP in Newcastle because they couldn't afford to continue their weekly commute.
Within 6 months HMRC fixed the issue by outsourcing the work to Capgem / Equal Experts who then claimed everyone was outside....
The government in in a hole from which there is no way out.
This is an utter farce now. Imagine her taking PMQs on Wednesday...
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1581975905164853248
Truss didn't want to do that (and she doesn't have to) and installed key allies to drive her domestic agenda as well.
Truss then realised neither the markets nor the British public actually liked the things she said she'd do (even though the membership did) and is now a dead duck.
How you can survive such an obvious undermining of your entire main policy is beyond me. It's even worse than May. She tied her mast to her Brexit deal and kept trying to ram it through. Here Truss has appointed someone to junk her flagship policies in the space of twenty minutes.
She's completely without authority and needs to resign.
However, the country can't manage another eight week Conservative navel gazing contest, which in all reality will take us beyond Christmas. So we would've had no effective government from end of June to 2nd January 2023. What a total joke.
It might work for Belgium. I'm not sure it'll work for us.
Heck it will be a PMQ for the ages even if Coffey does it instead.
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention
5. Yet they still went ahead with the other promises too, and the combination of both seems to be what caused the house of cards to tumble.
PS this is one take on it. I'm not in the inner circles of govt so some is supposition.
https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1581958794778591232
As for the Tories, Truss will be gone within days – weeks at the most – perhaps replaced by Hunt himself, who has none of Rishi Sunak’s baggage and does a good impression of a safe pair of hands. I am not saying there is a conspiracy afoot. There’s no need. Our system is ancient, sophisticated and surprisingly transparent. We have a way of doing things, old bean, and we make it gently inconceivable to do it any other way. This is the dictatorship of consensus.
The financial future of South African cricket has been perilous for years as its cash reserves didn’t so much dwindle away as gush in a torrent of waste and mismanagement, so perhaps it should be no surprise that the silver bullet solution – the SA20 – isn’t finding things easy.
Details, of which there are many, aren’t the issue for the purposes of explaining the problem. The SA20 cannot succeed unless it is broadcast in India. The deadline for submissions of tender for Indian broadcasters was on Wednesday, October 12. None, apparently, submitted a bid.
https://mannersoncricket.substack.com/p/broadcast-bluff?r=7pe49
While I disagree with @MoonRabbit that the energy cap has anything to do with the issue Truss finds herself in, the combination of the energy cap and the unchecked tax cuts was too much for the market..
You could add that the credibility of Brexit is holed below the waterline
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581978257628753921
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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2m
Told we will begin to see cabinet resignations with the next 48 hours.
The details beyond that show their incompetence but not the core problem with Trussonomics.
What you smoking?
Economically it should be a no-brainer for the Chancellor, the VAT lost on consumer goods for export (clothes, jewelery, electronics etc) is offset by both the increase in tourism, and by the revenues from flights, hotels, entertainment and other industries that rely on tourism - doubly so, at a time when that tourism industry needs a massive boost after the pandemic.
Instead, Sunak decided that the UK “couldn’t afford” to open up VAT-free shopping to EU visitors, so we stopped all the American, Asian and Middle Eastern tourists from also taking part, thus making the UK a significantly less desirable place to visit.
NI scrapped (Ers and Ees)
Additional allowance of (say) 50% the PA for pensioners (so about £6k more).
Income tax to 33%.
A pensioner on £18k income will therefore pay NO tax.
But a pensioner on £100k will pay quite a bit more. I'm crying, I really am. I'm sure £100k a year with no mortgage isn't enough to live on.......
I suppose if you didn't want to be brave, you could retain Ers NIC, but scrapping it seems the best option in the longer term.
"Hold on, what happened to Truss?"
"Well she wasn't very good. Anyway, yes, Sunak*..."
*To pluck a name out of thin air for illustrative processes. I still think he'll manage to peak too soon again.
As things stand (always subject to change): Liz Truss not keen to come to Commons for Lab UQ. Now battle to get someone in her place. Am told no ministers so far keen but Penny Mordaunt has said she'll do it
ha!!!! shes toast. Off playing farmy farm.
During the campaign initially her team were offering hope not handouts. They even went on TV, Jake Berry for one, saying as such.
She u turned that before she won the leadership.
I'm hoping for a quiet stint.
On Radio 4, the vox- pop voters are loving this shiny new Government, suggesting Truss should be given a chance.
PARLY
@PARLYapp
The PM can’t be summoned to the Commons to answer questions by the Speaker or anyone else. The Speaker has the power to grant a UQ but it is up to the government who responds.
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1581977382889455617
So even if you don't want Truss answering the question, it's a political nightmare to resolve.
Why do I see a VoNC being request for tomorrow by SKS
The expectation is we get over 150 letters to Sir Graham, and the resignations push it to over the 179 magic figure.
I see only two possible outcomes. Truss is gone before PMQs and a coronation takes place with an election to be pre announced for early June giving a few months to stabilise the economy and prepare, i cant see another winter election, but maybe late spring.....
Or the Tory party splits apart into Hunt/May/Govites versus Spartans, Borisites etc and teams up with Nigel and we stumble into an election in short order
Labour are home and hosed
I have instructed my Financial Adviser to liquidate all my shareholdings Thursday afternoon.
Dig a nuclear bunker and go long on tins.
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
The current system simply cannot cope as the tax burden needed to maintain it is unsustainable.
Being shit doesnt equal being irrelevant
BREAKING: Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, to acquire conservative social media app Parler, the platform has announced.
The move comes a week after the rapper was locked out of his Twitter account and restricted on Instagram for antisemitic posts.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1581962335500935172
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/china-halts-lng-sales-to-foreign-buyers-to-ensure-own-supply
That's suboptimal for Europe (And us) this winter.
Chris Mason: Yep. Pretty much... There's a view she's an empty vessel.
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581982067071496193