Truss has to resign herself, because otherwise she looks like she's a hostage - held in place by Hunt and the party to get their programme through and let her take the blame later.
It really isn't - that leaves big problems funding social care.
And you need to fund social care to keep the NHS going -
lack of social care -> bed blocking -> delayed hospital admissions -> A&E issues -> 6-8 hour wait for ambulances.
It was, however, impossible to reverse the change because it's too late to change things for November 6th.
It doesn't leave any issues funding social care, NI goes into central funding anyway. Just deal with it using central funding, just as it should be.
The idea NI is "ringfenced" is for the birds.
I'm talking about the £5bn or so that the NI increases generated. That money still needs to be found because it's solves a big problem the NHS has in beds being underutilised due to people not being moved into care homes.
No it doesn't the 1p cut to income tax was priced in from 2024 onwards, that has now been scrapped, they should balance each other out because income tax is payable on all income while NI is payable on earned income by people under 67.
It really isn't - that leaves big problems funding social care.
And you need to fund social care to keep the NHS going -
lack of social care -> bed blocking -> delayed hospital admissions -> A&E issues -> 6-8 hour wait for ambulances.
It was, however, impossible to reverse the change because it's too late to change things for November 6th.
Philip doesnt care about that
Labour in a bit of a pickle now as they supported the tax cut what they gonna do now
Yes BJO Starmer and Reeves thoroughly humiliated - not.
Starmer and Reeves were pilloried by Truss/Kwarteng for only offering the energy assistance plan for six months and not two years. How long did Hunt just say that will last?
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 1h Premiership now Sunak’s to lose. The Tories have two choices. Sunak or Wallace, and Wallace doesn't want it. They represent the two sides of the crisis - financial markets + war/energy. In war people who don't like each other work together. Get on with it
Hunt has a nice smile. With twinkling eyes. Imagine the fun he had going to Cheques yesterday with the Treasury list of demands.
Liz Truss = Admiral Donitz.
Jez 4 King. My Sunak lay feels safer after the way he did that. Sunak correctly stated the flaws in trussonomics during hustings but did it in a sort of yappy terrier manner. Hunt is magisterial.
Blowing up her energy thing was brutal.
Ronald Reagan: "Don't just do something, stand there." Liz n Kwart probably wishing they had listened to that advice.
I know you're all hating on Truss but I'll never ever forgive Boris for what he did to the office of PM. I'd take a thousand years of Truss in office and Hunt in power over another Boris term.
Yes. This is a glorious success for Truss. The rest of the mini-budget was expendable all along. She gamed this. Hooray for Truss!
I couldn't give less of a f**k about Truss.
I wanted the NI tax rise reversed. Its been reversed. Good.
Truss can resign tomorrow or lose the next election for all I care. She's delivered what I wanted though.
Truss hasn't delivered anything.
Oh really? Is Sunak's malicious "Health and Social Care Levy" still going ahead?
That Levy would have been ratchetted up in years to come, as increasing the "Health and Social Care levy" sounds nicer than putting up Income Tax. In doing so the burden would further increase on those who work for a living on PAYE and not on pensioners or others who avoid NI.
Its abolition is what Truss promised in the campaign. Its been abolished, or will by in three weeks time. Good riddance!
Yes. This is a glorious success for Truss. The rest of the mini-budget was expendable all along. She gamed this. Hooray for Truss!
I couldn't give less of a f**k about Truss.
I wanted the NI tax rise reversed. Its been reversed. Good.
Truss can resign tomorrow or lose the next election for all I care. She's delivered what I wanted though.
Truss hasn't delivered anything.
Oh really? Is Sunak's malicious "Health and Social Care Levy" still going ahead?
That Levy would have been ratchetted up in years to come, as increasing the "Health and Social Care levy" sounds nicer than putting up Income Tax. In doing so the burden would further increase on those who work for a living on PAYE and not on pensioners or others who avoid NI.
Its abolition is what Truss promised in the campaign. Its been abolished, or will by in three weeks time. Good riddance!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 7m I literally cannot comprehend what I’m watching. How can any Tory MP possibly believe Liz Truss can remain even titular Prime Minister after that. And how can Liz Truss believe it. Doesn’t she have any self-respect.
Bizarre that this statement wasn't made in the House.
Feels very un-British somehow. Unsteady.
Reminds me of Lamont having to announce Sterling dropping out of the ERM in the dark on a random pavement somewhere. The nature of an emergency when the Commons isn't sitting (because everyone is traveling in from there constituencies).
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 7m One Tory party insider says of Hunt's statement:
"It's an utter humiliation of the prime minister. How can she not resign when her entire argument for the future of the country has been totally shredded?"
Yes. This is a glorious success for Truss. The rest of the mini-budget was expendable all along. She gamed this. Hooray for Truss!
I couldn't give less of a f**k about Truss.
I wanted the NI tax rise reversed. Its been reversed. Good.
Truss can resign tomorrow or lose the next election for all I care. She's delivered what I wanted though.
I never saw you as a man of such small ambitions
I said during the leadership campaign I thought Truss would lose the next election, but I didn't care, I wanted the Health and Social Care levy gone.
NI is the worst of all our taxes in my eyes. Increasing it was awful. Increasing it in the guise of "Health and Social Care" which would no doubt inevitably be ratchetted up higher in the future is even worse.
I don't care if Truss doesn't achieve anything else between now and the next election and loses to Starmer. Killing that tax was that important in my eyes. Its dead, good riddance, Truss has delivered what I wanted.
Hunt says he is reversing nearly all the tax cuts in the mini budget
Spoke to my aunt yesterday. She was very concerned about Truss becoming PM in the way that she did, and then ignoring the mandate of the 2019 election (not quite her words but that was the gist). She's also very concerned at Hunt being PM in all but name. She's feeling pretty worried about the democratic deficit at the moment and the more Hunt acts like the PM, the more concerned people like her will become.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Yes. This is a glorious success for Truss. The rest of the mini-budget was expendable all along. She gamed this. Hooray for Truss!
I couldn't give less of a f**k about Truss.
I wanted the NI tax rise reversed. Its been reversed. Good.
Truss can resign tomorrow or lose the next election for all I care. She's delivered what I wanted though.
Truss hasn't delivered anything.
Oh really? Is Sunak's malicious "Health and Social Care Levy" still going ahead?
That Levy would have been ratchetted up in years to come, as increasing the "Health and Social Care levy" sounds nicer than putting up Income Tax. In doing so the burden would further increase on those who work for a living on PAYE and not on pensioners or others who avoid NI.
Its abolition is what Truss promised in the campaign. Its been abolished, or will by in three weeks time. Good riddance!
Truss hasn't been able to deliver anything.
Any delivery is down to Hunt.
I suspect you are getting drawn into another one of Barty's little games. The one to distract from the fact that he backed the most destructive PM over and over again. In his usual way - with thousands of post.
"Our plan is fully costed and revenue neutral over X years, a forthcoming OBR and Treasury report with all of the details will be released in X days, the UK is and has always been a nation that pays it's way, my growth plan is part of that commitment to ensure we can continue this role over the long term"
Announce that the 45p rate will return at 43p at £100k or something as a peace offering and everyone calms down.
I wrote this on September 28th, glad to see the chancellor was paying attention. 😉
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
Upstart Peasant @WebbPwebb13866 · 3m Replying to @garius I think the 1922 Committee know they don't have a mechanism to remove her at the moment, so the plan is to make her life so uncomfortable that she resigns.
Although it doesn't highlight the real problem - which isn't how do you get Liz Truss out - it's how do you get someone else in.
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
I also don't understand how a bunch of well paid employees working 5 days a week for a company becoming "contractors" working 5 days a week for a client now able to claim expenses and not pay employer's NI will generate growth.
CRAZY BETTING POST GIVEN ALL THE CRAZINESS BEAR WITH ME
Cons need someone who is
Smart Pragmatic Human Able to bring differing sides of the party together Media-savvy/friendly
Step forward...Steve Baker.
Surprised on the upside wrt NI (the province not the tax break) and might thereby bring ex-Remainers and Leavers with him.
Needs to get rid of the facial hair and he is well worth a few quid at 60s (bf).
Human, able to bring different sides of the party together, media savvy, friendly. I'm backing John Redwood as the next Tory leader. It would follow the trend of selections so far.
Bizarre that this statement wasn't made in the House.
Feels very un-British somehow. Unsteady.
Reminds me of Lamont having to announce Sterling dropping out of the ERM in the dark on a random pavement somewhere. The nature of an emergency when the Commons isn't sitting (because everyone is traveling in from there constituencies).
It was indeed specifically described as, and agreed by the Speaker as an emergency statement. And Hunt will appear in the Commons late on.
The objectionable thing is that it was necessary at all, not the manner of its delivery.
I’m wondering how I personally feel about this (apart from 'poorer').
I start from the position of being a bit of a small state libertarian. I liked the destination that Liz and Kwazi were trying to get to. But I thought their approach was a) a bit reality-defying (we’re £1 trillion in debt: we can’t just ignore the markets; and while I’m not averse to a bit of cut-taxes to boost growth, those aren’t necessarily the taxes I’d have cut, and you still have to have to acknowledge the need to cover expenditure and have some plan to do so) b) poorly executed (you’re in politics dammit: you need to persuade and convince and take people with you; Britain maybe an imperfect democracy but a democracy it still is, and you need to treat it as such) and c), related to the previous point, done without an electoral mandate. Boris won in 2019 on a pledge of stodgy economic centrism with a visible but almost irrelevant patina of defying metropolitan fashionability. Whatever Liz and Kwazi were proposing, it wasn’t that. Britain’s democracy is a little bit held together with string and wishful thinking; we know that a party can change leaders midstream and frequently does, but ultimately – though the mechanisms which prevent you from doing so, if they even exist, are somewhat Byzantine – as a government you ultimately need to operate with democratic consent. If you are taking over midstream you need present at least the appearance of continuity, or you need a GE. Anything else breaks the spell. The word ‘coup’ is overused. But if it is taken to mean an unelected change of direction – well, yes, there has just been a coup by the stodgy centrists. But this was just a countercoup to the Liz and Kwazi lurch to Singapore. I lament that Liz and Kwazi have given small state libertarianism a bad name by their cack handed approach to the politics of implementing it. I lament, a bit, that the stodgy centrists have won. But in a choice between competent centrism and incompetent libertarianism I probably prefer the former, and it appeared in the end that competent libertarianism wasn’t actually on offer. (And this does give an object demonstration of what happens when you depend on debt but defy your creditors, and perhaps makes a far left government slightly less likely. Only slightly, mind.) I also lament that I think this makes Northern Powerhouse Rail via Bradford slightly less likely. (If we were to ride the Liz n Kwazi crazy train, we might at least have taken it to Bradford.)
Just watched Hunt's statement. He's quite clear that he's only keeping the NI cut/abandonment of the health and social care levy and the stamp duty cut because it's too late to U-turn on them. He's ditched the rest.
Hunt says he is reversing nearly all the tax cuts in the mini budget
Spoke to my aunt yesterday. She was very concerned about Truss becoming PM in the way that she did, and then ignoring the mandate of the 2019 election (not quite her words but that was the gist). She's also very concerned at Hunt being PM in all but name. She's feeling pretty worried about the democratic deficit at the moment and the more Hunt acts like the PM, the more concerned people like her will become.
Your Aunt seems on the ball.
Hah, she really is! While I was typing, I thought it sounded like a fake anecdote. I admit that she surprised me, not because she's politically unaware, she's not, but because I'm not so concerned about it myself. My own view is that all this is fine, albeit unorthodox, under our system but it seems I might have missed the wider picture and how it all might look to the wider country.
Tory rebels vow to bury fracking as they urge Liz Truss to make policy U-turn.
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Damien Green on R4 this morning said he was ok with fracking as long as there was robust and extensive local consultation. Which he said he thought would lead to a vanishingly small amount of fracking…..
BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has taken a wrecking ball to Liz Truss's tax plans.
*Says he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan" *No longer cut dividend tax *Abandon IR35 changes *Won't cut basic rate of income tax, it remains at 20% indefinitely
What a moron - the IR35 changes were one of the easy wins in the whole thing which almost certainly would have generated more growth than they cost.
@MaxPB 's calculation shows that they may have cost way more than was estimated - I would argue that they don't because tax avoidance is now into the oh boy area...
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
While there's a strong argument for doing something, actually thinking about what that might be, and the best way to formulate it, takes time. An emergency fiscal statement probably isn't the best occasion.
Otherwise we just end up with another complicated mess in place for several years.
(Note that those on this blog who actually know much about this - which doesn't include me - don't seem to have reached any consensus on the matter.)
Comments
Until they couldn't.
We still need someone to stroll about in Kyiv don't we ?
* Two-year energy price cap - GONE
* Income tax cut - GONE
* Scrapping 45p rate - GONE
* Freezing corporation tax - GONE
* Freezing alcohol duties - GONE
* VAT free shopping for int tourists - GONE
* Dividend & freelance reforms - GONE
(*final stage)
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1581953937988411392
Starmer and Reeves were pilloried by Truss/Kwarteng for only offering the energy assistance plan for six months and not two years. How long did Hunt just say that will last?
@iainmartin1
·
1h
Premiership now Sunak’s to lose. The Tories have two choices. Sunak or Wallace, and Wallace doesn't want it. They represent the two sides of the crisis - financial markets + war/energy. In war people who don't like each other work together. Get on with it
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1
Blowing up her energy thing was brutal.
Ronald Reagan: "Don't just do something, stand there." Liz n Kwart probably wishing they had listened to that advice.
Enjoy it till Starmer comes in.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1581953973937848320
That Levy would have been ratchetted up in years to come, as increasing the "Health and Social Care levy" sounds nicer than putting up Income Tax. In doing so the burden would further increase on those who work for a living on PAYE and not on pensioners or others who avoid NI.
Its abolition is what Truss promised in the campaign. Its been abolished, or will by in three weeks time. Good riddance!
Probably better to say that prices this winter peaked at ~16 times and are now ~8 times the long run position.
Any delivery is down to Hunt.
Isn't that another thing that might encourage off payroll working. The best bit of the Truss plan to keep?
They've not defenestrated the Prime Minister.
They've just locked all the doors and windows and given her some duplo to keep her busy, while they run the country.
https://twitter.com/garius/status/1581953716177235968
@DPJHodges
·
7m
I literally cannot comprehend what I’m watching. How can any Tory MP possibly believe Liz Truss can remain even titular Prime Minister after that. And how can Liz Truss believe it. Doesn’t she have any self-respect.
@SebastianEPayne
·
7m
One Tory party insider says of Hunt's statement:
"It's an utter humiliation of the prime minister. How can she not resign when her entire argument for the future of the country has been totally shredded?"
NI is the worst of all our taxes in my eyes. Increasing it was awful. Increasing it in the guise of "Health and Social Care" which would no doubt inevitably be ratchetted up higher in the future is even worse.
I don't care if Truss doesn't achieve anything else between now and the next election and loses to Starmer. Killing that tax was that important in my eyes. Its dead, good riddance, Truss has delivered what I wanted.
@GeneralBoles
Now all her policies have been ditched Liz is just left with her quick wit and sparkling oratory
MPs are confident they have the numbers to push back PM's plans to lift moratorium on shale gas exploration
The Whips’ office is understood to be nervous about the number of Conservative backbenchers planning to abstain or even vote with Labour on Wednesday in an opposition day debate on fracking
Full story here 👇
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/16/tory-rebels-vow-bury-fracking-urge-liz-truss-make-policy-u-turn/
Next job is finding a consensus candidate who can work with him to take over from Liz.
Announce that the 45p rate will return at 43p at £100k or something as a peace offering and everyone calms down.
I wrote this on September 28th, glad to see the chancellor was paying attention. 😉
And remember it's not the tax side of IR35 that kills it for people, it's the lack of expenses which make working inside impossible...
Income tax restoration of 20% rate = sensible
Energy scheme review from April 2023 is sensible and government can bring it back 2023/4 winter if needed
👍
Coffeyyyyyyy! I’ve had another whoopsie!!!!!
But then what can she say???
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
Zeleneskyy: "If she rings, I'm out".
Hunt’s emergency budget statement in full:
“CTRL ALT DELETE”
[Younger PBers may need to look it up...]
Upstart Peasant
@WebbPwebb13866
·
3m
Replying to
@garius
I think the 1922 Committee know they don't have a mechanism to remove her at the moment, so the plan is to make her life so uncomfortable that she resigns.
Although it doesn't highlight the real problem - which isn't how do you get Liz Truss out - it's how do you get someone else in.
That’s it; that’s the story.
And Hunt will appear in the Commons late on.
The objectionable thing is that it was necessary at all, not the manner of its delivery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFLpwRMS00g
Clearly bad politics mind
So long!
So long Trusstafari call you
So long!
And now the enemies surround you
Trying to devour you
So long Trusstafari call you
So long!
I start from the position of being a bit of a small state libertarian. I liked the destination that Liz and Kwazi were trying to get to. But I thought their approach was a) a bit reality-defying (we’re £1 trillion in debt: we can’t just ignore the markets; and while I’m not averse to a bit of cut-taxes to boost growth, those aren’t necessarily the taxes I’d have cut, and you still have to have to acknowledge the need to cover expenditure and have some plan to do so) b) poorly executed (you’re in politics dammit: you need to persuade and convince and take people with you; Britain maybe an imperfect democracy but a democracy it still is, and you need to treat it as such) and c), related to the previous point, done without an electoral mandate. Boris won in 2019 on a pledge of stodgy economic centrism with a visible but almost irrelevant patina of defying metropolitan fashionability. Whatever Liz and Kwazi were proposing, it wasn’t that. Britain’s democracy is a little bit held together with string and wishful thinking; we know that a party can change leaders midstream and frequently does, but ultimately – though the mechanisms which prevent you from doing so, if they even exist, are somewhat Byzantine – as a government you ultimately need to operate with democratic consent. If you are taking over midstream you need present at least the appearance of continuity, or you need a GE. Anything else breaks the spell.
The word ‘coup’ is overused. But if it is taken to mean an unelected change of direction – well, yes, there has just been a coup by the stodgy centrists. But this was just a countercoup to the Liz and Kwazi lurch to Singapore.
I lament that Liz and Kwazi have given small state libertarianism a bad name by their cack handed approach to the politics of implementing it. I lament, a bit, that the stodgy centrists have won. But in a choice between competent centrism and incompetent libertarianism I probably prefer the former, and it appeared in the end that competent libertarianism wasn’t actually on offer. (And this does give an object demonstration of what happens when you depend on debt but defy your creditors, and perhaps makes a far left government slightly less likely. Only slightly, mind.)
I also lament that I think this makes Northern Powerhouse Rail via Bradford slightly less likely. (If we were to ride the Liz n Kwazi crazy train, we might at least have taken it to Bradford.)
2. If you want the read to be ditching the minibudget, you can only afford to keep so much.
I can't imagine Johnson or Truss roughing it with the plebs for twelve hours.
As I said we've gone beyond even Rishi's plans for fiscal dryness now. I think the Fed raising as it has done has forced this degree.
Otherwise we just end up with another complicated mess in place for several years.
(Note that those on this blog who actually know much about this - which doesn't include me - don't seem to have reached any consensus on the matter.)
Jeremy Hunt = The Earl of Warwick