As expected and in line with some of the other polling companies, the final VI poll figures put Labour with a *32pt* lead over the Tories. (Fieldwork 29-30 Sep)
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
Bound to be painful coming off a 15 year trip on cheap money and QE so let's do it as carefully as possible, mitigate the pain, spread it out, try to steer it at those most able to take a hit. Truss is doing the dead opposite of this. Rushed, chaotic, incoherent, the affluent sheltered and everyone else taking the brunt. Wrong on every level.
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Looking at the recent polls, I suspect the fairly poor Lib Dem showing is easy to explain. Previously, some voters fed up with Boris but not enamoured by Labour were going Lib Dem as a sort of half-way house. Now, though, so many are so utterly disenchanted by the Tories that they just want them replaced - and only Labour (who are looking much more respectable recently) can do that.
As others have said, in an actual GE the Lib Dems will get quite a lift from tactical voting in Tory-held seats.
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Looking at the recent polls, I suspect the fairly poor Lib Dem showing is easy to explain. Previously, some voters fed up with Boris but not enamoured by Labour were going Lib Dem as a sort of half-way house. Now, though, so many are so utterly disenchanted by the Tories that they just want them replaced - and only Labour (who are looking much more respectable recently) can do that.
As others have said, in an actual GE the Lib Dems will get quite a lift from tactical voting in Tory-held seats.
If people aren't coming in to sit down for dinner while you're still at your table you can consider it a failure.
I have spent the last penny of my Club Covid Credit, on the last day it was valid
It all feels very Endtimesy
From tomorrow I think I might actually start avoiding the news, for maybe the first time in my life. It is too intense
trick is to limit it...i only watch one news bulletin a day in the early evening...never watch the 10 o clock news even if im at home would rather watch netflix instead....also make sure im off the internet totally many hours each day
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Because non-morons wouldn't touch it with a bargepole.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.
I have finally caught the plague.
Presumably you're fully jabbed?
I was the similar - thought "this is a bad cold, a bit off my food" so took a test and was positive. Worst symptoms over pretty quickly, but felt a bit under the weather for a few weeks.
Lab gain from Con Con hold x2 Lab hold LDm hold x3 PC hold Ind hold
Good week/Bad Week Index
LDm +172 Lab +72 PC +51 Con +13 Grn -2 SNP -18
Adjusted Seat Value
LDm +2.2 Lab +1.2 PC +0.9 Con +0.2 Grn -0.0 SNP -0.3
Why doesn't adjusted seat value sum to zero? Is seat inflation out of control too?
The 'value' of each seat is different for each party, based on their strength on the council, the history in that ward, and the vote share they have got historically.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
Bound to be painful coming off a 15 year trip on cheap money and QE so let's do it as carefully as possible, mitigate the pain, spread it out, try to steer it at those most able to take a hit. Truss is doing the dead opposite of this. Rushed, chaotic, incoherent, the affluent sheltered and everyone else taking the brunt. Wrong on every level.
To take a medical analogy...
Post lockdown, most people needed to become less wobbly. But the way to start that process was with some gentle limbering up wearing looseish clothing. Truss is sending us out in running kit that doesn't really fit any more, to do timed runs, whilst carrying millionaires in Sedan chairs because they need to be cosseted.
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
dont think its hit home to the uk people what the support for ukraine may well cost...its been a battle in a far away place...tonight it will
The FT article -the need for a credible economic plan - includes this glorious line (about the CoE)
"He needs to demonstrate how the NHS can deliver the increase in activity necessary to cut waiting times, without increasing spending further."
Good luck with that one. This modest aim is one of a plethora of immediate demands for massive change at no cost to anyone. But answers on a postcard to this first modest one would be, I am sure, welcome at Number 11.
The pro-annexation concert on Red Square is in full swing. Ivan Okhlobystin, the star of the Russian version of Scrubs, is saying that Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv, and other cities in "Russian Ukraine" are next to be annexed
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Putin also admitting today that the Referendums were fixed.
"The people have voted and made their choice. The only choice."
I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.
I have finally caught the plague.
Presumably you're fully jabbed?
I was the similar - thought "this is a bad cold, a bit off my food" so took a test and was positive. Worst symptoms over pretty quickly, but felt a bit under the weather for a few weeks.
Oh yes - fully jabbed and boosted. I spent the last two days drinking tea and eating toast, but I felt much better today so I made mushroom soup for lunch and an contemplating chicken for dinner.
I guess I shall have to stay away from others for a few more days
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
Great idea. Truss comes on TV. "Very serious situation. We stand with Ukraine who are at war with Russia. Parts of Ukraine have been stolen and we won't stop until Ukraine recovers them.
We can go from people worrying about: "How do I heat my home" to "How do I keep my home" to "How do we stop my home being nuked"
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Putin also admitting today that the Referendums were fixed.
"The people have voted and made their choice. The only choice."
The only choice.
ah my favourite hampstead liberal has finally realised the referendums were fixed...well done sir
Seems highly unlikely that NATO will let Ukraine join NATO overnight.
Nevertheless, Putin’s annexations will receive some kind of response, presumably that is the announcement this evening.
Indeed it might even be some prep for the off ramp. Any negotiation has to have as a precondition Ukraine membership of NATO (I.e if you try this on again in a few years Vlad, you’re not going any further).
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
He does that sometimes. Just chill and be the better man.
You always did strike me as a pushing from the back kind of guy.
Just uncomfortable at you being called a "twat". Not nice to see, however understandable.
Zelensky response: He says Ukraine is de facto part of NATO alliance. “Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure… We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.”
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
Lab gain from Con Con hold x2 Lab hold LDm hold x3 PC hold Ind hold
Good week/Bad Week Index
LDm +172 Lab +72 PC +51 Con +13 Grn -2 SNP -18
Adjusted Seat Value
LDm +2.2 Lab +1.2 PC +0.9 Con +0.2 Grn -0.0 SNP -0.3
Why doesn't adjusted seat value sum to zero? Is seat inflation out of control too?
The 'value' of each seat is different for each party, based on their strength on the council, the history in that ward, and the vote share they have got historically.
Presumably also net losses by independent or others?
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
It's interesting that "Conservatives" who, one might argue, "conservatively" supported the status quo can be characterised as "radicalised", while the section of the party that were until that time regarded as the vocal fringe (variously "lunatics" and "bastards") have become all that remains of it.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
Not so sure - its better to be talking behind the scenes and not give Putin any ammo
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Putin also admitting today that the Referendums were fixed.
"The people have voted and made their choice. The only choice."
The only choice.
ah my favourite hampstead liberal has finally realised the referendums were fixed...well done sir
Well we all knew - but for Putin to admit it? Wow.
It's that gangster hubris again, I suppose. Be the death of him one day.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?
Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
They couldn't reconcile themselves to the earth being flat. The Tory party can't accommodate people who refuse to believe hard enough.
Zelensky: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts." However...
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president." https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
Putin also admitting today that the Referendums were fixed.
"The people have voted and made their choice. The only choice."
The only choice.
ah my favourite hampstead liberal has finally realised the referendums were fixed...well done sir
Well we all knew - but for Putin to admit it? Wow.
It's that gangster hubris again, I suppose. Be the death of him one day.
Haven't read it properly but isn't that simply assuming universal swing since 2020? I'm assuming 538's model takes into account things like opinion polls
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
She had a fair trial.
She was found guilty.
Not quite unanimous though - majority verdict. Bart was on the jury.
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
I feel your last sentence should read "... they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the Earth being flat"
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
Bound to be painful coming off a 15 year trip on cheap money and QE so let's do it as carefully as possible, mitigate the pain, spread it out, try to steer it at those most able to take a hit. Truss is doing the dead opposite of this. Rushed, chaotic, incoherent, the affluent sheltered and everyone else taking the brunt. Wrong on every level.
To take a medical analogy...
Post lockdown, most people needed to become less wobbly. But the way to start that process was with some gentle limbering up wearing looseish clothing. Truss is sending us out in running kit that doesn't really fit any more, to do timed runs, whilst carrying millionaires in Sedan chairs because they need to be cosseted.
It might be OK, but it seems unlikely.
With no mandate.
(I've decided to have this as my standing order ps)
Presumably Hungary under Orban will block Ukraine membership of NATO? Not sure what Turkey will say on it either (although Erdogan has told Russia to get out of Ukraine, so maybe he is not going to block it?)
Don't think so. Too much pressure & "mitigation" from Joe Biden and USA methinks for these fuckers to block.
No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
He does that sometimes. Just chill and be the better man.
You always did strike me as a pushing from the back kind of guy.
Just uncomfortable at you being called a "twat". Not nice to see, however understandable.
No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
They have gone full tonto...
Then it is upto conservative mps to vote it down and demand Truss resignation along with the inept Kwarteng
Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
Brexit, essentially.
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
I feel your last sentence should read "... they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the Earth being flat"
I mean, the decision to leave the EU is a fact, so...
Presumably Hungary under Orban will block Ukraine membership of NATO? Not sure what Turkey will say on it either (although Erdogan has told Russia to get out of Ukraine, so maybe he is not going to block it?)
Don't think so. Too much pressure & "mitigation" from Joe Biden and USA methinks for these fuckers to block.
I saw somewhere that Hungary are in the process of going bust, one more story lost somewhere in the general chaos...
Russian sources claim that Russian 503rd regiment from Kreminna has been dispatched to Torske, presumably to help withdrawing the troops but I have my doubts. A bit late for that. Likely only a (tiny) morale boost to hold the line. #Lyman #Ukraine https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1575851452509040641
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
by that time it wouldnt matter the uk would be an irradiated wasteland and i would be hunting rats for food
"The one with the rifle shoots! The one without follows him! When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots!"
No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
They have gone full tonto...
So the Cabinet may think. They may all be Tories but the majority are not Truss-ed up.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?
Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
Finland and Sweden received security guarantees before they applied to join NATO. If NATO doesn't immediately rebuff Ukraine's application then I'd expect some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine before the end of the day.
Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
Interesting how in just a few days, stout defenders of Liz Truss and her fiscal "strategy" and "tactics" have gone from full-on Kool-Aid guzzling, to . . . not much of anything really . . .
Liz Truss - highly unreliable support for whatever it is you think she's supporting.
Turns out she's way better at CREATING ruptures rather than preventing them.
Haven't read it properly but isn't that simply assuming universal swing since 2020? I'm assuming 538's model takes into account things like opinion polls
There is so little polling at individual Congressional seat level that it makes no difference.
538's model takes into account generic polling and Presidential approval ratings.
I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.
I have finally caught the plague.
You must be kind to yourself and rest
Hope you soon recover
Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself
I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
Why not the booster? Flu jab too at the same time.
Because if you have just had covid they do not give you the booster. I was asked last time I had my booster - you had to have been clear of covid for 6 months
Comments
Con: 23% (-9 from 23-26 Sep)
Lab: 55% (+11)
Lib Dem: 7% (-3)
Green: 5% (0)
Reform UK: 3% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)
#polling
https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1575837270266892290
Because I’m really not sure it is. Putin looks utterly desperate, and hunted. Cornered, and nasty
@Omnisis 30 Sep 32pt Lab lead
@PeoplePolling 29 Sep 30pts
@Survation 29 Sep 21pts
@techneUK 28-29 Sep 20pts
@YouGov 28-29 Sep 33pts
@RedfieldWilton 28-29 Sep 17pts
@DeltapollUK 27-29 Sep 19pts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1575859211195777024/photo/1
More than half of Britons (51%) think that Truss should resign
Includes over a third (36%) of 2019 Conservative voters who also say this
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/09/30/fee3a/1
Bruschetta with stracchino cheese, squash, chestnuts, crispy sage
Vitello tonnato, tuna, capers & anchovies sauce, quail eggs!
And now a superb Wehlener Riesling dessert wine
if I die today I die well fed
Outlier Britain needs a credible economic plan in a hurry https://www.ft.com/content/5f4386ea-b384-46d9-9767-14a2da77d1e5
https://twitter.com/Cellodidas89/status/1575823548144582658
I have finally caught the plague.
"It is obvious this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty is. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president."
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1575852889225953282
As others have said, in an actual GE the Lib Dems will get quite a lift from tactical voting in Tory-held seats.
It all feels very Endtimesy
From tomorrow I think I might actually start avoiding the news, for maybe the first time in my life. It is too intense
The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.
Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
As a result of which, NATO has now expanded to include Finland, Sweden and, er, Ukraine?
How the fuck has he not been pushed out a window yet?
Somehow I don’t think it will feature a skit from Putin with Paddington Bear…
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
I was the similar - thought "this is a bad cold, a bit off my food" so took a test and was positive. Worst symptoms over pretty quickly, but felt a bit under the weather for a few weeks.
Nevertheless, Putin’s annexations will receive some kind of response, presumably that is the announcement this evening.
Post lockdown, most people needed to become less wobbly. But the way to start that process was with some gentle limbering up wearing looseish clothing. Truss is sending us out in running kit that doesn't really fit any more, to do timed runs, whilst carrying millionaires in Sedan chairs because they need to be cosseted.
It might be OK, but it seems unlikely.
"He needs to demonstrate how the NHS can deliver the increase in activity necessary to cut waiting times, without increasing spending further."
Good luck with that one. This modest aim is one of a plethora of immediate demands for massive change at no cost to anyone. But answers on a postcard to this first modest one would be, I am sure, welcome at Number 11.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575863539939823616
"The people have voted and made their choice. The only choice."
The only choice.
I guess I shall have to stay away from others for a few more days
We can go from people worrying about:
"How do I heat my home" to
"How do I keep my home" to
"How do we stop my home being nuked"
Vote Conservative.
Not sure we’re at that stage yet, mind.
(And your original comment implied the borders changed today.)
Hope you soon recover
https://twitter.com/m_kollmorgen/status/1575863974117380096/photo/1
Lots of this would be just what we need. 42.63% of electricity from wind power right now.
Or is that waiting on Switzerland and China applying?
She was found guilty.
I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
Does that count?
It's that gangster hubris again, I suppose. Be the death of him one day.
Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
"We'll conquer everyone, we'll kill everyone, we'll loot whoever we need to, and everything will be just as we like it."
https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1575850093995257856?s=20&t=cs2L1WQI5Ls7s4LUaP_-gA
(I've decided to have this as my standing order ps)
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
They have gone full tonto...
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Putin doesn't intend to travel to the newly annexed territories for the time being
Apparently he has "lots of work" at the moment
interfax.ru/russia/865730
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575867693395480576
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1575851452509040641
Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
Liz Truss - highly unreliable support for whatever it is you think she's supporting.
Turns out she's way better at CREATING ruptures rather than preventing them.
538's model takes into account generic polling and Presidential approval ratings.