Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?
Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope.
Have you failed to back him as next Tory leader?
That truly made me smile! Thanks Alph.
It's surely academic, and an artefact of the separate calculation, but the two surviving on the YouGov Electoral Calculus prediction are the D&G pair of Mundell and Lamont.
Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.” https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115
I honestly can't see any way back for Truss. The narrative of reckless incompetence is embedded so she will get the blame for all mortgage rises even though some rise in rates are absolutely inevitable. She is also a very poor media performer - she can't think on her feet or project empathy and she is also poor at set piece speeches. BoJo was partly good and partly crap (poor attention to detail) but could waffle and fib his way out of a tight corner. Makes one realise how brilliant Blair was on the communication front.
I think the severity of the reaction will force Tory hands so a change in leader is likely which may well close the gap with Labour. If Truss continues or her replacement is a poor choice it gets very interesting - but I would expect a LD revival. There is a lot of anti-Labour sentiment and there must be many millions who are very negative about both main parties.
There may be a lot of anti-labour sentiment but the reality is the anti-Tory sentiment is going to trump that.
My viewpoint is that people vote for the least worst party that has a chance of winning which means that Labour and the Lib Dems probably need to be very clear as to who is going to win the seats the Lib Dems wish to target to avoid confusion..
Because few people are going to vote Tory once they see their monthly mortgage repayment...
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
He looks more unstable than I’ve ever seen
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
1. The removal of Liz Truss after half an hour in the job. There are so many reasons why even contemplating her removal is politically insane - that we are openly discussing how it could happen shows how far into political unreality we have travelled 2. The continuation of the "this is fine" messaging around the "stay the course" economic plan. The -33% poll looks to be an outlier until we then get -20, -21 and even -30 polls to accompany it
Neither impossibility looks set to back down. Truss and her cabal are wedded to their plan and apparently don't care about either the political impact or the market reaction. The market absolutely doesn't accept what they are saying or the "wait til late November timing or the proven lie about the OBR.
And voters? From what I am seeing and hearing the reaction against their plan is visceral and widespread. Whats more after a disastrous media shitshow yesterday, we go into Tory conference. Where the masters of the universe will show just how out of touch with reality they are and how incapable they are of emoting.
However impossible and political insane point 1 is, I can't see how the alternative isn't more impossible. By the end of conference it will clear to anyone outside her cabal that they have to be forcibly removed from the controls.
Fun times ahead for students of politics!
I think every polling firm except for 1 has done a poll over the past few days. And all have the Tories at least 20 points behind Labour....
The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.
Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.
If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
NATO can very rapidly obliterate any ability for Russia to launch battlefield nukes. That would leave him with his strategic nuclear deterrence, to deter any attempt to occupy Russian territory within its internationally recognised borders.
iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.
Bleak times.
I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing
Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign
Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer
And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*
*I don't actually do this, but I might start now
Im seeing lots of rolled eyes in the audience for vlads speech
Heads, surely? Ed
FWIW there is growing sense among people who deal with Russia on a daily basis that if this (frankly laughable) attempt to annex territory they don´t control does not stop the war within a few weeks, then Putin will be put through a window.
Any use of even a "tactical nuke" would speed up his exit to hours or days rather than weeks.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts. 2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it. 3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm. 4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training. 5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation. 6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible. 7. Increase VAT 8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income. 9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation. 10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.
That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.
Feels like a good list. To me only 2 is politically very difficult to do (in general, not talking about this govt, politically they're utterly f***ed).
I wonder what the combined affordability of all this would be, though? I'd add a condition that the combined 10 need to regain the confidence of the markets. Would these? I hope so but unsure.
That's why I had the VAT in there. Deficit reduction is a must or the markets are going to crucify us.
I have a lefty's instinctive aversion to increasing VAT, but given the need to rebalance the economy away from consumption of imported goods it is perhaps a necessary evil.
The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.
Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.
If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
NATO can very rapidly obliterate any ability for Russia to launch battlefield nukes. That would leave him with his strategic nuclear deterrence, to deter any attempt to occupy Russian territory within its internationally recognised borders.
So your idea is NATO should pre-emptively attack Russia? Brilliant. Can’t see any problem with that
There is a precedent for the Tories realising the members have made a howler...
The MPs should never have put Truss to the members - it could so easily have been Mordaunt and Sunak. Or even Badenoch, (although her inexperience probably would have made her risky in different ways).
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
The last two Conservative leaders have got there by being the candidate of the Eurosceptic Right. Neither of them was really of that wing of the party, and they have both been disasters in ways that were obvious beforehand to anyone who was paying attention.
So, why have we not had a full-on ERG candidate winning, and why are they so awful at putting their weight behind someone not obviously terrible?
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
You wrote this, arsehole:
"Why are people pretending that increased interest rates are a surprise? They were actively discussed during her election, even by her own advisers and should have been priced in.
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too."
When Ben Wallace said that Putin had gone "full tonto" he was right. It might not have been diplomatic to say so anywhere that it might get reported, but he was absolutely correct about the scale of Putin's delusion.
Let's hope some US black programme is about to end Putin in a deniable fashion.
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.
Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?
It will be interesting to see if China responds at all. Will they back the call for negotiations, or make more of a point of not recognising the annexations?
Now would be a great time to announce that the first squadron of Ukrainian F-16s were ready to be deployed.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
People do not expect the government to underwrite their mortgages. They do expect the government not to act in such an irresponsible manner that mortgage rates are forced up in response.
A significant problem now is that lenders do not know how to price products. They know there is significant and increasing downside risk from this government but they can't see how much - and the 2 month delay until the next budget event only makes that worse.
I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.
The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet). Are there any more ? I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
Neville Chamberlain.
Maybe Dave Davis can do his (admittedly pretty rubbish) 'In the name of God, go' schtick?
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
He does that sometimes. Just chill and be the better man.
1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts. 2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it. 3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm. 4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training. 5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation. 6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible. 7. Increase VAT 8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income. 9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation. 10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.
That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.
iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.
Bleak times.
I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing
Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign
Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer
And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*
*I don't actually do this, but I might start now
Im seeing lots of rolled eyes in the audience for vlads speech
Heads, surely? Ed
FWIW there is growing sense among people who deal with Russia on a daily basis that if this (frankly laughable) attempt to annex territory they don´t control does not stop the war within a few weeks, then Putin will be put through a window.
Any use of even a "tactical nuke" would speed up his exit to hours or days rather than weeks.
We can only pray that even the expressed intention of using a tactical nuke would be his death sentence.
The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.
Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.
If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
NATO can very rapidly obliterate any ability for Russia to launch battlefield nukes. That would leave him with his strategic nuclear deterrence, to deter any attempt to occupy Russian territory within its internationally recognised borders.
So your idea is NATO should pre-emptively attack Russia? Brilliant. Can’t see any problem with that
It'd be easy. We'd be guaranteed to get every single one of the tactical warheads, and old Vald would be fine with NATO air power sweeping across his borders and obliterating his troops and munitions.
Not sure if anybody's mentioned it, but I do wonder whether the financial chaos may also be exacerbated by a lot of people struggling to meet the monthly payments on the cars they're buying, and defaulting on their loans/contracts.
I'm surveying the local streets in the expectation (hope) of a downturn in the visibility of Chelsea tractors.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Putin openly saying they are fighting for "great historic Russia". This is why the West cannot give into nuclear blackmail. If we accept it with Ukraine, he will do the same with Belarus, with Kazakhstan, with the Baltics, with Poland. He must lose and be seen to lose.
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts. 2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it. 3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm. 4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training. 5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation. 6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible. 7. Increase VAT 8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income. 9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation. 10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.
That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.
Feels like a good list. To me only 2 is politically very difficult to do (in general, not talking about this govt, politically they're utterly f***ed).
I wonder what the combined affordability of all this would be, though? I'd add a condition that the combined 10 need to regain the confidence of the markets. Would these? I hope so but unsure.
That's why I had the VAT in there. Deficit reduction is a must or the markets are going to crucify us.
I have a lefty's instinctive aversion to increasing VAT, but given the need to rebalance the economy away from consumption of imported goods it is perhaps a necessary evil.
I think that we should look to zero rate things to reduce the regression. Fule certainly. Maybe hot food?
Bad News! Manchester United report that Harry Maguire has come back from international duties with an injury which will keep him out of action against Citeh on Sunday.
How awful! He was such an integral part of our defence, the first pick on the team sheet every game this season...
Even the applause is slow. Look at the faces. Not one of them in the crowd there believes this will work.
Remember that meeting with Putin and the Security Council two days before the invasion? They all looked worried, they knew that the boss has lots his marbles.
iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.
Bleak times.
I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing
Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign
Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer
And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*
*I don't actually do this, but I might start now
Im seeing lots of rolled eyes in the audience for vlads speech
Heads, surely? Ed
FWIW there is growing sense among people who deal with Russia on a daily basis that if this (frankly laughable) attempt to annex territory they don´t control does not stop the war within a few weeks, then Putin will be put through a window.
Any use of even a "tactical nuke" would speed up his exit to hours or days rather than weeks.
We can only pray that even the expressed intention of using a tactical nuke would be his death sentence.
Like everyone i am heartily sick of this war now...even with ukraine winning the cost is enormous
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
The PM managed to create a scenario where base rates that were expected to hit 5% are now going to hit 7%.
The Tories could recover significantly if they do dump Truss . Sunak looks even better after his forecasts came true so the public might think he knows what he’s talking about .
Of course there will be the issue that the Tories have yet another new leader but how much will the public factor that into their vote?
It would make the Tories look utterly dysfunctional but it’s their best chance now of preventing disaster at the next GE (which they will still lose - the question is now the scale).
Better to cut off the arm than risk the contagion spreading. Keeping Liz will just make things worse. She’s been tested and she’s just not up to the job. She’s actively making things more difficult every day.
They could bring back Mrs May - her track record of defying the opinion polls might be just what they need?
Not sure if anybody's mentioned it, but I do wonder whether the financial chaos may also be exacerbated by a lot of people struggling to meet the monthly payments on the cars they're buying, and defaulting on their loans/contracts.
I'm surveying the local streets in the expectation (hope) of a downturn in the visibility of Chelsea tractors.
Last time we had a big financial crisis there was a major threat to the car company finances in the UK. The sheer number of vehicles on PCP deals being handed back which then couldn't easily be sold on was a big problem.
If we start seeing a spike in voluntary terminations on such deals, we know the balloon is going up.
In case you had any doubt what this is really about, Putin hasn't even mentioned Ukraine for about 15 minutes now. This is effectively an official declaration of hostilities against the west.“
Bad News! Manchester United report that Harry Maguire has come back from international duties with an injury which will keep him out of action against Citeh on Sunday.
How awful! He was such an integral part of our defence, the first pick on the team sheet every game this season...
It would be very unfortunate if the injury kept him out until Christmas.
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.
Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.” https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115
I honestly can't see any way back for Truss. The narrative of reckless incompetence is embedded so she will get the blame for all mortgage rises even though some rise in rates are absolutely inevitable. She is also a very poor media performer - she can't think on her feet or project empathy and she is also poor at set piece speeches. BoJo was partly good and partly crap (poor attention to detail) but could waffle and fib his way out of a tight corner. Makes one realise how brilliant Blair was on the communication front.
I think the severity of the reaction will force Tory hands so a change in leader is likely which may well close the gap with Labour. If Truss continues or her replacement is a poor choice it gets very interesting - but I would expect a LD revival. There is a lot of anti-Labour sentiment and there must be many millions who are very negative about both main parties.
There may be a lot of anti-labour sentiment but the reality is the anti-Tory sentiment is going to trump that.
My viewpoint is that people vote for the least worst party that has a chance of winning which means that Labour and the Lib Dems probably need to be very clear as to who is going to win the seats the Lib Dems wish to target to avoid confusion..
Because few people are going to vote Tory once they see their monthly mortgage repayment...
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
He looks more unstable than I’ve ever seen
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
There are videos of her from the election debates calling Sunak's suggestion that increased borrowing would result in rising interest rates 'project fear'.
Ever see the move the stand where there is a vision of a future president stillson going completely mad His final words "The missiles are flying halleluhah"
Bad News! Manchester United report that Harry Maguire has come back from international duties with an injury which will keep him out of action against Citeh on Sunday.
How awful! He was such an integral part of our defence, the first pick on the team sheet every game this season...
It would be very unfortunate if the injury kept him out until Christmas.
Awful! Imagine if he has already played his last game in red?
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
He looks more unstable than I’ve ever seen
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
But who replaces him...might be someone worse
When Putin is replaced, the elite will be desperate to release sanctions. They need it for financial survival and to restore their army. They will appoint someone amenable.
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
He looks more unstable than I’ve ever seen
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
Putin openly saying they are fighting for "great historic Russia". This is why the West cannot give into nuclear blackmail. If we accept it with Ukraine, he will do the same with Belarus, with Kazakhstan, with the Baltics, with Poland. He must lose and be seen to lose.
He is not looking like he is in the ascendancy, in perhaps the way that Hitler was in advance of WW2.
There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.
In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.
Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
Bad News! Manchester United report that Harry Maguire has come back from international duties with an injury which will keep him out of action against Citeh on Sunday.
How awful! He was such an integral part of our defence, the first pick on the team sheet every game this season...
To be honest if I was a centre half nominated to stop Haaland from scoring I just might have an injury too.
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.
This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
Oh come on he hasnt slaughtered 6 million jews for a start
District Council By-election last night in Harborough.
Lib Dems held the seat with a modest increase in vote share of 2.7% (to 45.7%) -Conservatives who came second were down 2.6% (to 30%) Labour went up 8.6% (to 19.6%)
1,270 votes cast (30.7% turnout) of which 637 (50%) were postal votes - most of which were probably posted back to the council before the mourning period for the Queen had ended (so didn't receive much literature) and before last Friday's "Fiscal Misstatement" and the aftermath.
Will be interesting to see council election in the next couple of weeks - I expect that they will help any Conservative MPs make up their minds about what to do next.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Not sure if anybody's mentioned it, but I do wonder whether the financial chaos may also be exacerbated by a lot of people struggling to meet the monthly payments on the cars they're buying, and defaulting on their loans/contracts.
I'm surveying the local streets in the expectation (hope) of a downturn in the visibility of Chelsea tractors.
Last time we had a big financial crisis there was a major threat to the car company finances in the UK. The sheer number of vehicles on PCP deals being handed back which then couldn't easily be sold on was a big problem.
If we start seeing a spike in voluntary terminations on such deals, we know the balloon is going up.
There are 2 issues with PCP - the immediate one of can people continue to pay the monthly rental fees
A secondary one of with interest rates rising what can they get when their 2 year contract ends and they need to renew or replace their current deal...
I'm enjoying the faltering voice-over. I'd love to believe it's mimicking the real speech.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
He looks more unstable than I’ve ever seen
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.
In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.
Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
I wonder if those DKs are more of an inducement to depose Truss than the dire face value figures in the polls? Wouldn't need much of a nudge (ie anyone not Truss leading the Tory party) to get these guys back on board.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
The PM managed to create a scenario where base rates that were expected to hit 5% are now going to hit 7%.
That is something that she will be blamed for
Sure, she's incompetent and economically illiterate. No arguments from me on that one. But people entering long term loans must surely realise that they have no right to base rates staying at 1% indefinitely.
Ever see the move the stand where there is a vision of a future president stillson going completely mad His final words "The missiles are flying halleluhah"
Never mind, you'll be glad to know, as I have jus\t discovered by chance, that aliens didn't build Woolworths:
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
The PM managed to create a scenario where base rates that were expected to hit 5% are now going to hit 7%.
That is something that she will be blamed for
Sure, she's incompetent and economically illiterate. No arguments from me on that one. But people entering long term loans must surely realise that they have no right to base rates staying at 1% indefinitely.
A lot of people don't exactly have much choice but to buy the best property they can with the money they earn...
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
There are videos of her from the election debates calling Sunak's suggestion that increased borrowing would result in rising interest rates 'project fear'.
10+ years of base rates of 1% or less will do that to a politican. It was yet another failure of imagination.
Sure, she's incompetent and economically illiterate. No arguments from me on that one. But people entering long term loans must surely realise that they have no right to base rates staying at 1% indefinitely.
That always happens, even despite affordability tests far too many people still stretch their finances to the limit and essentially bet on rates never rising. It is nuts, but people keep doing it.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Comments
Interesting take.
It is a very odd speech mind you. He's just been going on about the Opium Wars as an example of the neoliberal/neocolonial 'project'. And now something about offices, or TV's ... and chemical weapons? And Europe is taking 95% of the recent grain exports from Ukraine, apparently. It's like the rambly haverings of the guy the barman advises you to avoid in the pub.
Awful yes. They know what is probably coming next
One insane man has trapped them all, and now the rest of us
My viewpoint is that people vote for the least worst party that has a chance of winning which means that Labour and the Lib Dems probably need to be very clear as to who is going to win the seats the Lib Dems wish to target to avoid confusion..
Because few people are going to vote Tory once they see their monthly mortgage repayment...
FFS someone push him out the window. It is 2 minutes to midnight
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
Any use of even a "tactical nuke" would speed up his exit to hours or days rather than weeks.
The last two Conservative leaders have got there by being the candidate of the Eurosceptic Right. Neither of them was really of that wing of the party, and they have both been disasters in ways that were obvious beforehand to anyone who was paying attention.
So, why have we not had a full-on ERG candidate winning, and why are they so awful at putting their weight behind someone not obviously terrible?
"Why are people pretending that increased interest rates are a surprise? They were actively discussed during her election, even by her own advisers and should have been priced in.
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too."
Which bit have I misrepresented. Dickhead.
Let's hope some US black programme is about to end Putin in a deniable fashion.
Now would be a great time to announce that the first squadron of Ukrainian F-16s were ready to be deployed.
A significant problem now is that lenders do not know how to price products. They know there is significant and increasing downside risk from this government but they can't see how much - and the 2 month delay until the next budget event only makes that worse.
Even the "shy Tory" polling turnaround under Kinnock wasn't that big.
SNP 56%
SLab 25%
Grn 6%
SLD 5%
SCon 3%
Ref 2%
oth (presumably Alba) 2%
Total pro-independence 64%
Total Unionists 35%
I'm surveying the local streets in the expectation (hope) of a downturn in the visibility of Chelsea tractors.
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1575828398513197061?s=46&t=QJuJi3i2InYi7HVRCxyY9w
Is that good or bad? I’m going with bad. Because this is 2022
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
That. Is. A. etc
It would give George something to laugh about.
Is that Putin in Moscow or an early start to the Tory Conference?
How awful! He was such an integral part of our defence, the first pick on the team sheet every game this season...
Wha….?
That is something that she will be blamed for
If we start seeing a spike in voluntary terminations on such deals, we know the balloon is going up.
If I were a western policymaker wondering if he'd really use nuclear weapons – and he hasn't even got to them yet – I'd be very concerned.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575829807593533441?s=46&t=QJuJi3i2InYi7HVRCxyY9w
In case you had any doubt what this is really about, Putin hasn't even mentioned Ukraine for about 15 minutes now. This is effectively an official declaration of hostilities against the west.“
This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
- no flowers at the funeral;
- and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
I wonder will they try to close ranks, or will they indulge in close-quarters combat?
His final words
"The missiles are flying halleluhah"
Tragic.
The Americans are not right about much but they sure as hell are about free speech.
In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.
Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
Lib Dems held the seat with a modest increase in vote share of 2.7% (to 45.7%) -Conservatives who came second were down 2.6% (to 30%) Labour went up 8.6% (to 19.6%)
1,270 votes cast (30.7% turnout) of which 637 (50%) were postal votes - most of which were probably posted back to the council before the mourning period for the Queen had ended (so didn't receive much literature) and before last Friday's "Fiscal Misstatement" and the aftermath.
Will be interesting to see council election in the next couple of weeks - I expect that they will help any Conservative MPs make up their minds about what to do next.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
A secondary one of with interest rates rising what can they get when their 2 year contract ends and they need to renew or replace their current deal...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/jan/16/ben-goldacre-bad-science-aliens-woolworths
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.