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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut to corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    The one thing this has done is to make Johnson even more of yesterday's man, thankfully
    Nope. People fed up with Boris lies, but will much prefer Johnson’s government economic approach than this. This makes Boris more likely to come back, not less.

    You need to listen to HY more, he pretty well nailed it in this post.
    Nonsense
    After today's effort from Kwartang I long for those heady days of stability from Johnson and Sunak.

    I wanted Johnson out. Always be wary for what you wish for!

    Could we tempt Johnson back with a moratorium on elections for twenty years, £10 million a year and gift him the Royal Yacht Britannia and Chequers? It is surely worth a try.
    He would need covid 19 party cover as well
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080

    Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    It will probably be Gordon Brown's fault.
    Quite a few things were the fault of the Great Plonking Fist.

    One has been euthanised today - IR35, subject to further measures to sort out the basic issue more effectively without a planet of paperwork.
  • Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    For someone who now accepts Brexit has happened, moans about BDS and likes to join in the spurts of EUrophobia so common on here, you sure like to link UK bad shit to EU bad shit. When oh when will the UK have its own independently bad shit?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MattW said:

    Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    It will probably be Gordon Brown's fault.
    Quite a few things were the fault of the Great Plonking Fist.

    One has been euthanised today - IR35, subject to further measures to sort out the basic issue more effectively without a planet of paperwork.
    Indeed. Today is a good starting point for getting rid of some of the massive complexity in the tax system, that’s built up over several decades under governments of all stripes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    The Sun has a good Kwarteng name pun

    'Kwasi mojo'

  • Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,993
    Dynamo said:
    Finland has seen an increase in traffic from Russia, though limited. The main reason for that is you need a visa to get into Finland. Those fleeing Putin's tyrannical announcement that ever more young Russian men will be thrown into his meat grinder are instead fleeing south, where visas are not needed. Or, if you are rich enough, getting a flight to the Middle East.
  • Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    For someone who now accepts Brexit has happened, moans about BDS and likes to join in the spurts of EUrophobia so common on here, you sure like to link UK bad shit to EU bad shit. When oh when will the UK have its own independently bad shit?
    Actually we are likely to do better than parts of Europe and I do hope a closer relationship can evolve but I am opposed to rejoining
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited September 2022
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Pretty obvious from the charts here that we burn less gas on windy days, and therefore that if we have more wind turbines we will burn less gas too.

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    Fine - until you have a high pressure system sitting over the country in a cold snap.

    Then your wind turbines are generating diddly squat - just when you need them most.
    There has to be a point at which more investment in wind is pointless in the grand scheme of things, until there’s reliable storage available for windy days, that can balance those calm days in winter when demand is at the peak.
    Strike price wind: £37.35
    https://renews.biz/78997/update-owic-hails-record-low-offshore-wind-strike-price/
    Strike price nuclear £106.12 https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfds/hinkley-point-c

    So building wind up to 284% of grid capacity on the windiest day seems optimal to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.

    Abolishing higher rate tax altogether will deliver some humongous pay rises to the already wealthy; I expect the journos are working up some examples as we speak. Whether this will be popular remains to be seen…
    I’ll tell you two people who immediately benefit. The PM and the Chancellor…
    A government minister is on the £150k threshold of the additional 45p rate, it doesn’t affect them personally.
    The PM is on £164k and almost certainly has some bits of rental income. She’ll directly benefit.
    Fair enough, that checks out and is £10k higher than I thought it was. She’ll be £700 better off from the income tax changes.
  • Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    For someone who now accepts Brexit has happened, moans about BDS and likes to join in the spurts of EUrophobia so common on here, you sure like to link UK bad shit to EU bad shit. When oh when will the UK have its own independently bad shit?
    Prior to today, having taxes at a 74 year high, choking growth. That was independently bad shut.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Picking up on what Bart said about inflation turning upside down, Brent crude getting slotted today under $87....

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.

    Abolishing higher rate tax altogether will deliver some humongous pay rises to the already wealthy; I expect the journos are working up some examples as we speak. Whether this will be popular remains to be seen…
    I’ll tell you two people who immediately benefit. The PM and the Chancellor…
    A government minister is on the £150k threshold of the additional 45p rate, it doesn’t affect them personally.
    The PM is on £164k and almost certainly has some bits of rental income. She’ll directly benefit.
    Fair enough, that checks out and is £10k higher than I thought it was. She’ll be £700 better off from the income tax changes.
    That £700 could transform someone's life at the bottom of the income scale.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,606
    MattW said:

    Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    It will probably be Gordon Brown's fault.
    Quite a few things were the fault of the Great Plonking Fist.

    One has been euthanised today - IR35, subject to further measures to sort out the basic issue more effectively without a planet of paperwork.
    PFI - the home of the £150 lightbulb change... the gift that will give for so, so long.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited September 2022
    As has been pointed out by others - and I have pointed out before, our fiscal politics has now fully realigned along the classic pre-Biden GOP/Democrat axis.

    Labour are the Clintonite party of fiscal responsibility.

    The tories are fiscally reckless - they claim to care about the debt/deficit in opposition but ditch all their “principles” when in government.

    The tories are whacking a gigantic debt onto the credit card of all our children and grandchildren, in order to bung cash into the child trust funds of the country’s wealthiest citizens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    edited September 2022

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    And nothing else changed in the generating mix in that time, of course ?

  • MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Pretty obvious from the charts here that we burn less gas on windy days, and therefore that if we have more wind turbines we will burn less gas too.

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    Fine - until you have a high pressure system sitting over the country in a cold snap.

    Then your wind turbines are generating diddly squat - just when you need them most.
    Sure, we need more than wind turbines alone, but that doesn't mean wind turbines don't reduce the amount of gas we have to burn to generate electricity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,823
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.

    Abolishing higher rate tax altogether will deliver some humongous pay rises to the already wealthy; I expect the journos are working up some examples as we speak. Whether this will be popular remains to be seen…
    I’ll tell you two people who immediately benefit. The PM and the Chancellor…
    A government minister is on the £150k threshold of the additional 45p rate, it doesn’t affect them personally.
    The PM is on £164k and almost certainly has some bits of rental income. She’ll directly benefit.
    Fair enough, that checks out and is £10k higher than I thought it was. She’ll be £700 better off from the income tax changes.
    That £700 could transform someone's life at the bottom of the income scale.
    We could confiscate all wealth and dole it out equally.
  • Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    Actually gas usage has fallen over the past two decades and coal use has been almost eliminated. So you're wrong, categorically wrong. Gas use is down, not up.
  • Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Pretty obvious from the charts here that we burn less gas on windy days, and therefore that if we have more wind turbines we will burn less gas too.

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    Fine - until you have a high pressure system sitting over the country in a cold snap.

    Then your wind turbines are generating diddly squat - just when you need them most.
    There has to be a point at which more investment in wind is pointless in the grand scheme of things, until there’s reliable storage available for windy days, that can balance those calm days in winter when demand is at the peak.
    It's the other way round. We won't get the storage until there's the excess wind capacity to put into the storage.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,210
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.

    Abolishing higher rate tax altogether will deliver some humongous pay rises to the already wealthy; I expect the journos are working up some examples as we speak. Whether this will be popular remains to be seen…
    I’ll tell you two people who immediately benefit. The PM and the Chancellor…
    A government minister is on the £150k threshold of the additional 45p rate, it doesn’t affect them personally.
    The PM is on £164k and almost certainly has some bits of rental income. She’ll directly benefit.
    Fair enough, that checks out and is £10k higher than I thought it was. She’ll be £700 better off from the income tax changes.
    That £700 could transform someone's life at the bottom of the income scale.
    We could confiscate all wealth and dole it out equally.
    You seem to be happy that people who already having everything they need several times over having even more. That's a weird priority call when so many cannot afford the basics.
  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
    Ha ha. I used to know Adam Werrity.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,270

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    @HYUFD has this weird view that only his hero Johnson can win red wall seats and as he has gone they are all going to labour as some form of revenge over deposing Johnson

    Today is so dramatic that it is simply impossible to predict but at least business is welcoming todays measures and as a conservative it is good to see Truss binning Johnson 's f_ _ _ business attitudes
    Quite. Im not sure what to make of it yet. It might shank us horribly but it might equally turbo charge us. The hyperventilating does suggest at least a fear in the establishment and opposition of the latter and a rewritten orthodoxy.
    I can see why you might say that of the Opposition but why would 'the establishment' fear the economy being turbocharged?

    The establishment will remain comfortable whatever but they have slightly more to fear from a Labour government that seeks to tax wealth and reduce privilege than from a Truss government.

    The establishment will be hoping this gamble pays off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,606
    On how to not grow industry....

    André-Hubert Roussel, CEO, Ariane Group is complaining that start up launch companies in Europe, were duplicating what was already being done in launch and that in supporting these companies Europe was encouraging competition that brought "nothing" in terms of innovation to the table. Oh and the dirty barstewards are taking investment cash that should be his, by right.
  • LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited September 2022

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Pretty obvious from the charts here that we burn less gas on windy days, and therefore that if we have more wind turbines we will burn less gas too.

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    Fine - until you have a high pressure system sitting over the country in a cold snap.

    Then your wind turbines are generating diddly squat - just when you need them most.
    There has to be a point at which more investment in wind is pointless in the grand scheme of things, until there’s reliable storage available for windy days, that can balance those calm days in winter when demand is at the peak.
    It's the other way round. We won't get the storage until there's the excess wind capacity to put into the storage.
    Even when you hit that point you're better off simply spending the potential storage cash on..... more wind.
    Overbuilding wind is correct economically so far as I can work out.

    It makes your gas go further...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,823
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.

    Abolishing higher rate tax altogether will deliver some humongous pay rises to the already wealthy; I expect the journos are working up some examples as we speak. Whether this will be popular remains to be seen…
    I’ll tell you two people who immediately benefit. The PM and the Chancellor…
    A government minister is on the £150k threshold of the additional 45p rate, it doesn’t affect them personally.
    The PM is on £164k and almost certainly has some bits of rental income. She’ll directly benefit.
    Fair enough, that checks out and is £10k higher than I thought it was. She’ll be £700 better off from the income tax changes.
    That £700 could transform someone's life at the bottom of the income scale.
    We could confiscate all wealth and dole it out equally.
    You seem to be happy that people who already having everything they need several times over having even more. That's a weird priority call when so many cannot afford the basics.
    1% cut in basic rate, energy price cap, over a grand in direct support to the worst off
    The idea that top rates must never be changed because 'nnnnnnng poor people' is for the birds, what happens overall is the key here, otherwise you might as well confiscate all wealth.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    I think there is space for both you and Ben (if I may) in the literary canon. It's a horses for courses thing. He writes what you wish you could write but there is certainly an audience for your work as well, so no need for the insecurity.

    We love you and your writings here on PB for example.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,606
    edited September 2022

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    Hmmm... Something has disappeared. Can anyone tell me what that is?

    image
  • I thought Reeves did rather well.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,252

    MattW said:

    Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    It will probably be Gordon Brown's fault.
    Quite a few things were the fault of the Great Plonking Fist.

    One has been euthanised today - IR35, subject to further measures to sort out the basic issue more effectively without a planet of paperwork.
    PFI - the home of the £150 lightbulb change... the gift that will give for so, so long.
    Probably key to driving energy efficiencies, that. £150 will make people think whether they really need that light!

    (I'm assuming a broken CFL or FL or LED fitting doesn't drawer current, as a broken incandescent would not have done, but wondering whether in fact that's true - can they fail in ways that doesn't beak the circuit but fails to emit light? heat instead e.g.)
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    I agree absolutely on the reducing of taxes, not sure about the 'reducing the state' bit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    Borrowing to fund tax cuts is not remotely conservative. How was the state cut? The Tories are borrowing billions?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    DA says optimum is 92-96rpm for him - how do we know what our own optimum is and isn't it likely that we are all roughly the same in this regard anyway?
    You work it out by instrumenting yourself and your bike then riding a lot at various intensity levels. You then plot power vs cadence and can see the peak of the power curve. There are loads of software for this. I use Training Peaks. You could probably do it with the raw data and Excel if you're sufficiently nerdy.
  • Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,823

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    @HYUFD has this weird view that only his hero Johnson can win red wall seats and as he has gone they are all going to labour as some form of revenge over deposing Johnson

    Today is so dramatic that it is simply impossible to predict but at least business is welcoming todays measures and as a conservative it is good to see Truss binning Johnson 's f_ _ _ business attitudes
    Quite. Im not sure what to make of it yet. It might shank us horribly but it might equally turbo charge us. The hyperventilating does suggest at least a fear in the establishment and opposition of the latter and a rewritten orthodoxy.
    I can see why you might say that of the Opposition but why would 'the establishment' fear the economy being turbocharged?

    The establishment will remain comfortable whatever but they have slightly more to fear from a Labour government that seeks to tax wealth and reduce privilege than from a Truss government.

    The establishment will be hoping this gamble pays off.
    I disagree. Although we might have differing opinions on who and what constututes the establishment
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not held first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this needs to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    The red wall is a very diverse area. Plenty of parts where most property is over 125 grand, plenty earning good income, plenty IR35s, plenty paying basic rate income tax, plenty reliant on businesses succeeding.
    You dont have to be the biggest winner to be a winner.
    The red wall are the red wall because for decades they have watched times of growth benefit the south east and not reach them.

    The vox popping on budget picking up so much “rich people benefitting, not us” is politically toxic. Maybe the crisis help to households announcement should have been kept apart from the “big handouts to the rich” announcement as some kudos may have been swamped here.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Personally, I'm torn. I hate debt but in favour or low taxes and a small state. With Rishi there was debt and high taxes. Now there is more debt but lower taxes. I'm oscillating between thinking it is great and terrible depending on which aspect I'm considering.

    It's a huge gamble. We need to all hope it pays off.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    It was not. Cutting taxes, or cutting spending, but in a balanced costed budget - that would be a classic Tory budget. Instead we have an inflationary borrow to pay for tax cuts. About as far away from Thatcherism as you can get.
  • Let's be totally and honestly blunt about this.

    If Labour was in power right now and the Pound was tanking as it is, there would be no "it's the world economy", it would be Labour's crisis, Labour's mess and Labour's problem.

    Let us be honest with ourselves, 12 years of economic failure has got us to this point. The Tories are arsonists, it is time to get rid of them.

    Everything was wonderful in 2009?
  • Let's be totally and honestly blunt about this.

    If Labour was in power right now and the Pound was tanking as it is, there would be no "it's the world economy", it would be Labour's crisis, Labour's mess and Labour's problem.

    Let us be honest with ourselves, 12 years of economic failure has got us to this point. The Tories are arsonists, it is time to get rid of them.

    Everything was wonderful in 2009?
    Under the last Labour Government we had a social fabric, we actually cared about each other. There was a society.

    That has gone and this is now going to the end. Society is crumbling.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Off topic. It is the beginning of the end for the TV satellite dish. The TV aerial can't be far behind.

    https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/09/sky-uk-reportedly-plan-to-end-satellite-tv-dish-installs-in-2023.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    As @MaxPB has pointed out, it is a big eff off roll of the dice. It could work, no one really knows: cutting taxes to improve the tax take, for example, has been a (Tory) mantra for some time. We are about to find out whether it actually works.

    If you want to stimulate the economy, putting ££s back in peoples' pockets is not the very worst way of doing it.

    But it is a fill or kill situation.

    I've never been part of such an interesting large-scale economics trial before. Buckle up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,270
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    Borrowing to fund tax cuts is not remotely conservative. How was the state cut? The Tories are borrowing billions?
    If the tax cuts lead to private sector led economic growth then even if the public sector stays the same size so services aren't reduced then relatively speaking the tax burden and public sector as a proportion is cut but without worsening public services.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,210
    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,732
    Wondering how the effect of the #MiniBudget on post-tax incomes stacks up against the effects of rising costs across the income distribution?

    Look no further. @NEF's brilliant @Sam_Tims has crunched the numbers.

    The results are grim. https://twitter.com/alfie_stirling/status/1573292418807762944/photo/1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I've not had a chance to follow things, but any idea just how high growth will need to be, and how immediate, to pay for everything without massive borrowing? 2x current growth, 3x etc?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I thought Reeves did rather well.

    Reeves far too shrill, and poor sound bytes, and surprisingly quiet behind her in supporting her.

    Kwarteng was unintelligible at times speaking too fast. Nothing about his demeanour sold the new approach. It was a “sod you I’m doing it anyway” vibe, not a confident one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    @HYUFD has this weird view that only his hero Johnson can win red wall seats and as he has gone they are all going to labour as some form of revenge over deposing Johnson

    Today is so dramatic that it is simply impossible to predict but at least business is welcoming todays measures and as a conservative it is good to see Truss binning Johnson 's f_ _ _ business attitudes
    Quite. Im not sure what to make of it yet. It might shank us horribly but it might equally turbo charge us. The hyperventilating does suggest at least a fear in the establishment and opposition of the latter and a rewritten orthodoxy.
    I can see why you might say that of the Opposition but why would 'the establishment' fear the economy being turbocharged?

    The establishment will remain comfortable whatever but they have slightly more to fear from a Labour government that seeks to tax wealth and reduce privilege than from a Truss government.

    The establishment will be hoping this gamble pays off.
    Gamble is what it is.

    Say you have total financial assets of £1000. The best thing to do with it is not to put it on a single number at roulette, unless you know for certain that a loan shark is going to murder you unless you pay him £35000 in the next two hours. Then it is. GE 2024 is Liz n Kwasis loan shark.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
    Oh god you've just set him off on another google.
  • AlistairM said:

    Off topic. It is the beginning of the end for the TV satellite dish. The TV aerial can't be far behind.

    https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/09/sky-uk-reportedly-plan-to-end-satellite-tv-dish-installs-in-2023.html

    And what about in all the locations where the broadband speed is shit?
  • I will give this to Truss and co.

    They have an ideological base. I think it's nuts but they have an ideology they are following.

    It's time to comprehensively defeat it, however.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    There is nothing in this approach that appeals anyone under the super rich tax bracket.

    What an utter joke. I’m ashamed to have ever supported such a bunch of reckless idiots
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Good afternoon everyone.

    I've been reading everything carefully, and I've looked at my investments, and of course the effect on my sundry pension incomes.
    Looks to me as if, at the moment anyway, my investments are down, but my income will be slightly up next year. That is of course without taking into account extra fuel costs, which for pensioner households are significant.
    As far as my family is concerned, I think one son will be somewhat better off, the other, as a result of the fall of the value of the £, somewhat worse off. My grandchildren will be rather worse off.

    So overall I think it's a bad deal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,210
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
    Oh god you've just set him off on another google.
    No, I’m done with reprising your humiliation,
    for now

    Also, in terms of perspective, that painting is: Close, but no cigar
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?


    My issue with Marr's analysis is his presumption that Kwarteng's budget is likely to lead to any meaningful growth at all. Whether prioritising the rich over the poor is unfair, is moot in that case.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    my laptop taskbar has for 2.5 years helpfully told me the weather. today, for the first time, it decided i should know that sterling was tanking against the dollar.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Let's be totally and honestly blunt about this.

    If Labour was in power right now and the Pound was tanking as it is, there would be no "it's the world economy", it would be Labour's crisis, Labour's mess and Labour's problem.

    Let us be honest with ourselves, 12 years of economic failure has got us to this point. The Tories are arsonists, it is time to get rid of them.

    Everything was wonderful in 2009?
    Under the last Labour Government we had a social fabric, we actually cared about each other. There was a society.

    That has gone and this is now going to the end. Society is crumbling.
    And as it was turned into The Big Society, it’s crumbling in a bigly way?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
  • There is nothing in this approach that appeals anyone under the super rich tax bracket.

    What an utter joke. I’m ashamed to have ever supported such a bunch of reckless idiots

    We must defeat them and the Tories can then go back to being a party I'll vote for when Labour get tired
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
    Oh god you've just set him off on another google.
    No, I’m done with reprising your humiliation,
    for now

    Also, in terms of perspective, that painting is: Close, but no cigar
    Google is for sure fantastic. And you are on safer ground with painting and google than you are with literature and your relative ability vs B*n *kr*.
  • Let's be totally and honestly blunt about this.

    If Labour was in power right now and the Pound was tanking as it is, there would be no "it's the world economy", it would be Labour's crisis, Labour's mess and Labour's problem.

    Let us be honest with ourselves, 12 years of economic failure has got us to this point. The Tories are arsonists, it is time to get rid of them.

    Everything was wonderful in 2009?
    Under the last Labour Government we had a social fabric, we actually cared about each other. There was a society.

    That has gone and this is now going to the end. Society is crumbling.
    And as it was turned into The Big Society, it’s crumbling in a bigly way?
    How are you Moon, hope you are keeping well friend.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    @HYUFD has this weird view that only his hero Johnson can win red wall seats and as he has gone they are all going to labour as some form of revenge over deposing Johnson

    Today is so dramatic that it is simply impossible to predict but at least business is welcoming todays measures and as a conservative it is good to see Truss binning Johnson 's f_ _ _ business attitudes
    Quite. Im not sure what to make of it yet. It might shank us horribly but it might equally turbo charge us. The hyperventilating does suggest at least a fear in the establishment and opposition of the latter and a rewritten orthodoxy.
    I can see why you might say that of the Opposition but why would 'the establishment' fear the economy being turbocharged?

    The establishment will remain comfortable whatever but they have slightly more to fear from a Labour government that seeks to tax wealth and reduce privilege than from a Truss government.

    The establishment will be hoping this gamble pays off.
    Gamble is what it is.

    Say you have total financial assets of £1000. The best thing to do with it is not to put it on a single number at roulette, unless you know for certain that a loan shark is going to murder you unless you pay him £35000 in the next two hours. Then it is. GE 2024 is Liz n Kwasis loan shark.
    Is the most relevant point that the next GE is the loan shark for the Conservatives, or is it that ratings agency downgrade and debt spiral is the loan shark for the UK people as a whole?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    AlistairM said:

    Off topic. It is the beginning of the end for the TV satellite dish. The TV aerial can't be far behind.

    https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/09/sky-uk-reportedly-plan-to-end-satellite-tv-dish-installs-in-2023.html

    And what about in all the locations where the broadband speed is shit?
    The terrestrial commercial channels need to pipe their live channels over IPTV. I don't have an aerial or satelite dish and tbh the BBC iplayer is the only service that works properly out of the "terrestrial" suite.
  • novanova Posts: 525
    TOPPING said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    As @MaxPB has pointed out, it is a big eff off roll of the dice. It could work, no one really knows: cutting taxes to improve the tax take, for example, has been a (Tory) mantra for some time. We are about to find out whether it actually works.

    If you want to stimulate the economy, putting ££s back in peoples' pockets is not the very worst way of doing it.

    But it is a fill or kill situation.

    I've never been part of such an interesting large-scale economics trial before. Buckle up.
    Are we about to find out though?

    With the war in Ukraine coming so soon after things were recovering post-Covid, and now the BoE saying we're in a recession, aren't things likely to improve at some point? Certainly, unless there are any more major shocks, there's a good chance that there would be an improvement in the economy by the time of the next election whatever happened.

    Untangling any benefits or losses from low taxes would be incredibly difficult.

    George Osborne would no doubt argue that his measures were the reason for growth, while plenty would argue we could have had earlier, and higher growth without his input.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,732
    Ironic that the first set of increased bankers bonuses will be paid out to those who shorted the pound.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1573270935993569281
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    Indeed. Labour are tax and spend. Conservatives since the UKIP takeover are just spend. Your children will pick up the bill.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    One of the few Russian attacking areas may have been turned.

    Very interesting. The Bakhmut area was one of the few areas where the Russians had been constantly trying to advance over the past weeks. If the Ukrainians are now pushing back there…
    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1573298480226893826
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,210
    edited September 2022
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
    Cracking plot twist

    The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine

    I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?

    Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)

    I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Driver said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
    Positive cases are certainly desirable, but not essential. Many governments get elected that way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,270
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
    Oh god you've just set him off on another google.
    No, I’m done with reprising your humiliation,
    for now

    Also, in terms of perspective, that painting is: Close, but no cigar
    In terms of perspective that painting is... nearly 80 years before Masaccio's
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    nova said:

    TOPPING said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    As @MaxPB has pointed out, it is a big eff off roll of the dice. It could work, no one really knows: cutting taxes to improve the tax take, for example, has been a (Tory) mantra for some time. We are about to find out whether it actually works.

    If you want to stimulate the economy, putting ££s back in peoples' pockets is not the very worst way of doing it.

    But it is a fill or kill situation.

    I've never been part of such an interesting large-scale economics trial before. Buckle up.
    Are we about to find out though?

    With the war in Ukraine coming so soon after things were recovering post-Covid, and now the BoE saying we're in a recession, aren't things likely to improve at some point? Certainly, unless there are any more major shocks, there's a good chance that there would be an improvement in the economy by the time of the next election whatever happened.

    Untangling any benefits or losses from low taxes would be incredibly difficult.

    George Osborne would no doubt argue that his measures were the reason for growth, while plenty would argue we could have had earlier, and higher growth without his input.
    Yes ceteris is never paribus. And yes also if we are in recession now and trundling along the bottom any rebound will be claimed by all sides.

    To me the two big indicators are the tax take (obviously) and, the corollary, the savings rate.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited September 2022
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
    Positive cases are certainly desirable, but not essential. Many governments get elected that way.
    Really? When was the last one? Certainly Blair in 1997 had a positive case. I don't remember 1979.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MattW said:

    Chris said:

    ... business is welcoming todays measures ...

    I suppose the 2.17% fall in the FTSE100 doesn't reflect anything whatsoever to do with business, among the remaining PB Tory loyalists?
    The falls in shares are right across Europe today with the FTSE at -1.83 ( now)

    Germany -2.08
    France - 1.90
    Italy -2.85
    Spain - 2.40

    Try to isolate it to UK is not going to wash and yes business welcomes todays measures
    You've said that twice now, and I can see that they are broadly welcoming the specific bits of policy. But we both know that they won't welcome the longer and deeper recession to follow...
    Any recession will not be because of todays measures but the effects of war in Ukraine and will be Europe wide and felt further
    It will probably be Gordon Brown's fault.
    Quite a few things were the fault of the Great Plonking Fist.

    One has been euthanised today - IR35, subject to further measures to sort out the basic issue more effectively without a planet of paperwork.
    PFI - the home of the £150 lightbulb change... the gift that will give for so, so long.
    Except PFI is Tory idea and introduction. Roundly and regularly attacked by Labour and Brown when in opposition, then continued by them when they came to power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    On how to not grow industry....

    André-Hubert Roussel, CEO, Ariane Group is complaining that start up launch companies in Europe, were duplicating what was already being done in launch and that in supporting these companies Europe was encouraging competition that brought "nothing" in terms of innovation to the table. Oh and the dirty barstewards are taking investment cash that should be his, by right.

    That’s a lot of words, to say that the real problem is SpaceX and other innovative startups eating his lunch, because how dare they have actual competition and innovation in rocket science!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,210

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is also the time to find out how literate the public is.

    I sincerely hope they will mourn Hilary Mantel because she was a tremendous writer. I mentioned her the other day in the same breath as Proust and I stick to that for the world she created and trapped you happily and rewardingly inside.

    The other thing people will have to read up on is Riccardian Equivalance because if people suspect that all might not be well with the UK in the months and years to come, it will once again show its relevance.

    The savings rate is the key indicator here.

    You also said Ben Okri is as good as James Joyce, and you failed to identify Masaccio’s The Holy Trinity, so your judgement is, to say the least, rather questionable
    Ouch again. What a zinger. You really have a thing about Ben Okri.

    *Google*

    AHHHHHHHHH

    Ben Okri/Age: 63 years

    If professional jealousy gets your creative juices flowing then keep at it.
    Masaccio

    The Holy Trinity

    The very first use of linear perspective in pictorial art

    1425?

    What about Lorenzetti's Presentation at the Temple 1342?

    image
    Oh god you've just set him off on another google.
    No, I’m done with reprising your humiliation,
    for now

    Also, in terms of perspective, that painting is: Close, but no cigar
    In terms of perspective that painting is... nearly 80 years before Masaccio's
    Of course. I’m merely noting that it doesn’t *quite* nail perspective, tho it is impressively close, and obviously part of the process that got there
  • Sandpit said:

    On how to not grow industry....

    André-Hubert Roussel, CEO, Ariane Group is complaining that start up launch companies in Europe, were duplicating what was already being done in launch and that in supporting these companies Europe was encouraging competition that brought "nothing" in terms of innovation to the table. Oh and the dirty barstewards are taking investment cash that should be his, by right.

    That’s a lot of words, to say that the real problem is SpaceX and other innovative startups eating his lunch, because how dare they have actual competition and innovation in rocket science!
    Ariane and SLS are the past, not the future.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
    Positive cases are certainly desirable, but not essential. Many governments get elected that way.
    You wouldn't have written that two years ago!!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not help first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this leads to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    Farage says best conservative budget since 1986

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168?t=PWbsZj6pf76O_VidBmcqhQ&s=19
    Blukip rules. RIP Conservatives.
    Today was a conservative budget cutting taxes and reducing the state

    It will be interesting to see how it is received but we now have 2 very different political parties and whoever wins the argument wins power in 2024
    Indeed. Labour are tax and spend. Conservatives since the UKIP takeover are just spend. Your children will pick up the bill.
    I’m not sure you are right at all - the bill is due not so far in the future to be paid for in higher bills and taxes. When do you think it becomes due to be paid?
  • Given the market reaction to today's budget, if you are super-wealthy the first thing you'll want to do with all the extra money the government has borrowed in order to hand over to you is to get it out of the UK asap.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Given the market reaction to today's budget, if you are super-wealthy the first thing you'll want to do with all the extra money the government has borrowed in order to hand over to you is to get it out of the UK asap.


    Where are you going to put it?
  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
    Errm..
  • There is nothing in this approach that appeals anyone under the super rich tax bracket.

    What an utter joke. I’m ashamed to have ever supported such a bunch of reckless idiots

    Oh really? Even Part Timers on Minimum Wage reach the tax thresholds and anyone on basic rate tax is seeing their marginal tax rate cut by 2.25
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Let's be totally and honestly blunt about this.

    If Labour was in power right now and the Pound was tanking as it is, there would be no "it's the world economy", it would be Labour's crisis, Labour's mess and Labour's problem.

    Let us be honest with ourselves, 12 years of economic failure has got us to this point. The Tories are arsonists, it is time to get rid of them.

    Everything was wonderful in 2009?
    Under the last Labour Government we had a social fabric, we actually cared about each other. There was a society.

    That has gone and this is now going to the end. Society is crumbling.
    And as it was turned into The Big Society, it’s crumbling in a bigly way?
    How are you Moon, hope you are keeping well friend.
    I’ve got a cough and dizzy today, so staying in on the sofa.

    Apart from that, all good 🙂
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,606
    AlistairM said:

    One of the few Russian attacking areas may have been turned.

    Very interesting. The Bakhmut area was one of the few areas where the Russians had been constantly trying to advance over the past weeks. If the Ukrainians are now pushing back there…
    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1573298480226893826

    Old story in warfare - emery attacks, you retreat, trying to blunt their attack. Then, when the enemy is tired/used up their resources, you counter attack.

    Attack, parry, riposte.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited September 2022

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    As I pointed out yesterday, UK gas usage is down 25% from peak in 2004. I'll give you that the significant reduction over several decades has been in coal, which is now essentially zero.

    Gas will be next. Unless we increase our renewable / low-carbon estate more slowly than demand will build back up from later this decade.

    I just ran the numbers for you this morning showing that electricity from just offshore wind commissioned between 2020 and 2025 is equivalent to more than 20% of the gas used in UK CCGF power stations to generate electricity.

  • Labour have played this budget to absolute perfection, they have successfully solidified the view that it is for the rich and the rich only.

    Labour under Starmer has got a lot better at strategy - and that is because I have told you all many times, they brought back Mandelson and Blair to help.
This discussion has been closed.