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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited September 2022
    Heh. I see we have a new age of Consignia "down the plughole" corporate logos coming. Step forward, Oxford University Press.



    Have a good day all - I need to go and be useful.
  • As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.
  • MattW said:

    Heh. I see we have a new age of Consignia "down the plughole" corporate logos coming. Step forward, Oxford University Press.



    Have a good day all - I need to go and be useful.

    Surprised they haven't been sued by Bond tbh
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    MISTY said:

    Sandpit said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Well this was certainly a bigger fiscal event than I'd expected.

    Thinking it through and absorbing it, it seems across the board that everyone working for a living is going to be better off. That's extremely significant.

    We've got the biggest tax rates in over 70 years and we're still short of money and not growing, so this is absolutely the right thing to do in my eyes. Plus as I've noted before, we went into this recession with a fairly balanced budget and debt to GDP going down instead of a ballooning deficit and debt to GDP going up as we did pre-2008.

    Hopefully the new tax rates attract more immigration of high paid jobs which results in more taxes and more growth too.

    Work should pay more for everyone now. Anyone who's not working, time to get a job. :)

    Everyone working for a living is not going to be better off because of inflation, which is increased by government borrowing.
    Inflation has ballooned under Rishi Sunak's policies and not Liz Truss's.
    There hasn't been very long under Truss's policies... but we've already seen the £ fall to historic lows, which means inflation up.
    Most major currencies are plunging against the US dollar, as you well know.
    $1.1026 a few minutes ago :open_mouth:

    Euro below 97¢

    That 75bps Fed rise is killing pretty much every other currency this week.
    Also the rhetoric from the Fed I think. I still think, in the long run, this is a bigger problem for the euro than sterling, because the ECB is more limited in what it can do, but we'll see.

    The yen, too, is vulnerable.
    So what has happened to the £/€ rate today ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975
    The question is which is the worse tory shit? This trickledown magic money tree economics tory shit? Or the culture 'war on woke' tory shit? Hmm, a toughie.
  • As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.

    It's fantastic for me - but I don't need the help.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already probably have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    Offshore wind is the best long term solution for the country, but onshore wind helps loads in the short to medium term.
  • As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.

    It's fantastic for me - but I don't need the help.
    Yet you keep complaining about tuition fees and housing being unaffordable? If you're getting more money from your work, then you can afford housing, rather than all the money going to landlords when Sunak was jacking up your taxes.

    So what's the problem?
  • ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Hmm. I'm not sure how to react to all this.

    Rachel Reeves has more satire than content.

    This is very much froth from KK imo. Lots of badda-badda-bam, but little subtlety.

    The extent of the low business tax zones is interesting - "West Midlands", "Norfolk". But raising Business Rates to their appropriate level by updating property values resulted in a huge squealing in the SE like stuck pigs, so perhaps cutting them for the others is an alternative.

    Driving the demand side of housing again by a crude reduction of Stamp Duty seems Krazy, compared to attempting to create a less distorted market.

    That list of prioritised projects bears some examination.

    Northern Powerhouse Rail is an actual impossibility at the moment, because it won't work without HS2 tracks being built to Leeds. So either they're not doing it, or they're doing something different and calling it NPR.

    If it is what was announced in the IRP, then they are complicit in misleading the House because that is infeasible. Literally, it cannot be done.
    I'm not convinced that's correct. Even in the rather messy recent NPR proposals, there are a fair few upgrades that could be done before HS2 reaches the north. e.g. electrifying Leeds to Hull. True, HS2 is needed to get the most of it, but there's still lots of other work that is probably not dependent on that project.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    I think the BoE need to call an emergency meeting as a consequence of this budget.

    It has profound monetary consequences.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.
  • As mentioned, the social context of this will become much clearer after the next price rise.

    Since there's been absolutely nothing on Universal Credit announced, by the end of the year even the friendliest media will not be able to avoid the increasingly obvious hardship and poverty, just as Truss and Kwarteng's flagship masters-of-the-universe policies roll into public view.

    In 1990 the Tory party was still sufficiently diverse in intellectual outlook to understand the need for a change of course. There's no sign of that now. The government will eventually be punished for this at the polls, as it would have been in 1992.

    And it will be richly deserved and just.

    Income Tax and National Insurance have been cut for the poorest, so anyone poor who wants more money can work and keep more of their own income they work for. 👍
    The poorest don't pay income tax.
    Everyone working full time on even the Minimum Wage pays Income Tax.

    Anyone who's not working full time, can get a job.
    Awesome, hopefully your post count on here will dramatically fall as a consequence.
  • As mentioned, the social context of this will become much clearer after the next price rise.

    Since there's been absolutely nothing on Universal Credit announced, by the end of the year even the friendliest media will not be able to avoid the increasingly obvious hardship and poverty, just as Truss and Kwarteng's flagship masters-of-the-universe policies roll into public view.

    In 1990 the Tory party was still sufficiently diverse in intellectual outlook to understand the need for a change of course. There's no sign of that now. The government will eventually be punished for this at the polls, as it would have been in 1992.

    And it will be richly deserved and just.

    Income Tax and National Insurance have been cut for the poorest, so anyone poor who wants more money can work and keep more of their own income they work for. 👍
    The poorest don't pay income tax.
    Everyone working full time on even the Minimum Wage pays Income Tax.

    Anyone who's not working full time, can get a job.
    Awesome, hopefully your post count on here will dramatically fall as a consequence.
    New favourite poster
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    Nigelb said:

    MISTY said:

    Sandpit said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Well this was certainly a bigger fiscal event than I'd expected.

    Thinking it through and absorbing it, it seems across the board that everyone working for a living is going to be better off. That's extremely significant.

    We've got the biggest tax rates in over 70 years and we're still short of money and not growing, so this is absolutely the right thing to do in my eyes. Plus as I've noted before, we went into this recession with a fairly balanced budget and debt to GDP going down instead of a ballooning deficit and debt to GDP going up as we did pre-2008.

    Hopefully the new tax rates attract more immigration of high paid jobs which results in more taxes and more growth too.

    Work should pay more for everyone now. Anyone who's not working, time to get a job. :)

    Everyone working for a living is not going to be better off because of inflation, which is increased by government borrowing.
    Inflation has ballooned under Rishi Sunak's policies and not Liz Truss's.
    There hasn't been very long under Truss's policies... but we've already seen the £ fall to historic lows, which means inflation up.
    Most major currencies are plunging against the US dollar, as you well know.
    $1.1026 a few minutes ago :open_mouth:

    Euro below 97¢

    That 75bps Fed rise is killing pretty much every other currency this week.
    Also the rhetoric from the Fed I think. I still think, in the long run, this is a bigger problem for the euro than sterling, because the ECB is more limited in what it can do, but we'll see.

    The yen, too, is vulnerable.
    So what has happened to the £/€ rate today ?
    Down to $1.10 - I am glad my trip is in its closing stretch!
  • At the very very least, we are due a killer tourism year in 2023. If the pound remains low, taking into account the new VAT laws, and then the coronation being a massive set-piece advertisement.

    Wales should push for William to have an investiture for the same reason.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Hmm. I'm not sure how to react to all this.

    Rachel Reeves has more satire than content.

    This is very much froth from KK imo. Lots of badda-badda-bam, but little subtlety.

    The extent of the low business tax zones is interesting - "West Midlands", "Norfolk". But raising Business Rates to their appropriate level by updating property values resulted in a huge squealing in the SE like stuck pigs, so perhaps cutting them for the others is an alternative.

    Driving the demand side of housing again by a crude reduction of Stamp Duty seems Krazy, compared to attempting to create a less distorted market.

    That list of prioritised projects bears some examination.

    Northern Powerhouse Rail is an actual impossibility at the moment, because it won't work without HS2 tracks being built to Leeds. So either they're not doing it, or they're doing something different and calling it NPR.

    If it is what was announced in the IRP, then they are complicit in misleading the House because that is infeasible. Literally, it cannot be done.
    I'm not convinced that's correct. Even in the rather messy recent NPR proposals, there are a fair few upgrades that could be done before HS2 reaches the north. e.g. electrifying Leeds to Hull. True, HS2 is needed to get the most of it, but there's still lots of other work that is probably not dependent on that project.
    Yes, like, for example, MML electrification to Yorkshire.

    But they're not 'Northern Powerhouse Rail.' They are not a new high-speed line linking the East and West coast via the major conurbations across the Pennines.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    edited September 2022
    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    Really hard to overstate the degree to which the Kwarteng Budget has just wrecked the Gilt market.

    Chart shows 20 day change in 5yr fixed rate yields since 1993. Market completely spooked.


    https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1573251529771188224
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,876
    edited September 2022
    ..
    kinabalu said:

    The question is which is the worse tory shit? This trickledown magic money tree economics tory shit? Or the culture 'war on woke' tory shit? Hmm, a toughie.

    Since we're getting both, it's a kind of a punch in the head or a punch in the stomach dilemma. They'll get round to a (insert another kind of tory shit) kick in the bollocks at some point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something that occurs to me is that if it does all go tits up and we call in the IMF under Labour, they will be charged with making eyewatering cuts to the state in return for IMF help and raising taxes. It will be Keir Starmer cutting the NHS and begging to the IMF, not the Tories.

    That's Labour's historic role, Max - to clear up the economic mess and impose painful measures that would be unacceptable from a Conservative Government.
    It could be a once in a generation opportunity for Labour to address the balance of tax take from working people to non-working people and asset owning classes.
    Indeed you've posed the question and provided the answer. In such a scenario (it all goes tits up and we have to call in the IMF) Labour would be more than just ivied in squeezing the rich (including you and me) to fix the mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Impressive presidential rating.

    Yoon's approval rating falls below 30%: poll
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2022/09/356_336601.html
    ...According to the pollster, many respondents cited the government's scrapping of a plan to build a new state guest house late last week and Yoon's handling of summit diplomacy, such as the cancellation of book-signing before the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, as reasons for disapproval....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    Tories don't care about young people.

    Housing - not solved
    Transport - not solved
    Tuition fees - not solved

    VOTE.

    The only solution you are interested in for tuition fees is yours to be cancelled. If the country wants around 50% of its 18 to 23 year olds to go to University, it needs paying for. Back in the last century there was a time when only 5% went to Uni. Much easier to finance.

    Teaching costs money. You need staff, buildings and for sciences in particular labs. Its not cheap.

    You could argue for a graduate tax - but tuition fees are a capped graduate tax. I'd rather the current system, than a flat graduate tax, but others may not agree.

    On housing - we have huge issues. I'm not sure what the answers are. Simply building more may help as our population keeps getting bigger and we also have a lot more single occupancy houses (divorces etc).

    Transport - what do you want to see? The Elizabeth line has opened in London. I don't think they have cancelled the big new shiny train set to the North?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    edited September 2022
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    Really hard to overstate the degree to which the Kwarteng Budget has just wrecked the Gilt market.

    Chart shows 20 day change in 5yr fixed rate yields since 1993. Market completely spooked.


    https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1573251529771188224
    Barty will be along soon to tell us the gilt markets are being driven by innumerate idiots and they've got it all wrong.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,813
    edited September 2022
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    2023 is booked up - I'm currently in training to do 52 marathons next year, to celebrate my 50th birthday! At least that's my intent...

    My vague plan is to not run between the weekly marathons, and instead swim and cycle to give my back and knee muscles a different workout. So I'll use 2023 to train for the triathlon. I'll try and do one in April/May 2024 as a backup, and then the St Neots triathlon in September. If I decide to do it. The swim's the frightening one for me - I've never been a good swimmer.

    As ever, plans depend on external events. I missed two months of running this summer due to my old ankle injury flaring up and having to do childcare. I put on nearly ten kilos. I've shed half that in three weeks of dieting and exercise.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.

    It's fantastic for me - but I don't need the help.
    What about the house buying? Will this not help that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Hmm. I'm not sure how to react to all this.

    Rachel Reeves has more satire than content.

    This is very much froth from KK imo. Lots of badda-badda-bam, but little subtlety.

    The extent of the low business tax zones is interesting - "West Midlands", "Norfolk". But raising Business Rates to their appropriate level by updating property values resulted in a huge squealing in the SE like stuck pigs, so perhaps cutting them for the others is an alternative.

    Driving the demand side of housing again by a crude reduction of Stamp Duty seems Krazy, compared to attempting to create a less distorted market.

    That list of prioritised projects bears some examination.

    Northern Powerhouse Rail is an actual impossibility at the moment, because it won't work without HS2 tracks being built to Leeds. So either they're not doing it, or they're doing something different and calling it NPR.

    If it is what was announced in the IRP, then they are complicit in misleading the House because that is infeasible. Literally, it cannot be done.
    I'm not convinced that's correct. Even in the rather messy recent NPR proposals, there are a fair few upgrades that could be done before HS2 reaches the north. e.g. electrifying Leeds to Hull. True, HS2 is needed to get the most of it, but there's still lots of other work that is probably not dependent on that project.
    Yes, like, for example, MML electrification to Yorkshire.

    But they're not 'Northern Powerhouse Rail.' They are not a new high-speed line linking the East and West coast via the major conurbations across the Pennines.
    Have you not yet got used to Tory bait and switch ?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022

    MISTY said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Kwarteng has said: "Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services.
    Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services."

    How much growth is needed to make up for the £45 billion reduction in tax revenue? OK, this is my attempt at a back of an envelope calculation. Please do correct me! Let's say tax revenue is 30% of GDP, so to make up for £45 billion, you need the economy to grow by £45B/0.3 = £250 billion. UK GDP is £2.7 trillion, so growth of £250 billion would be 9¼%.

    The highest growth ever achieved since 1949 was 7.5% last year, with post-COVID bounce back. 6.5% was achieved in 1973 following Barber's dash for growth, which was followed by one of our worst recessions.

    We are not going to achieve 9¼% growth. These tax cuts will not pay for themselves. Public spending will have to be slashed.

    I think UK GDP is actually nearer £2.2trn, 2.7trn may be in dollars. But the bigger flaw is that you are imposing a time scale of a year on this. If the changes resulted in the UK growing 2% faster over 5 or more years then the costs of the package will gradually be offset and then the shortfall can be recovered. Its a risk, no question, but as Simon Clarke put it this morning doing nothing is a risk too. In fact, its not so much a risk as a certainty: the current level of public spending and services cannot be sustained on the current economy with low growth.
    You are right! 2.7trn was $. Thanks.

    OK, so £2.2trn. £250 billion growth would be 11.4% growth. Even less likely.

    But, yes, you're right, growth is cumulative. So, to achieve 11.4% growth over 5 years, we need the 5th root of 1.114. That means 2.2% extra growth per year. That's more feasible, but if you amortise over 5 years, you've got this large additional debt that's built up while you wait for additional growth to catch up (plus the interest to be paid). I would also suggest 2.2% extra growth is still difficult to achieve. It certainly won't be achieved with discredited trickle down economics.

    Clarke is right that doing nothing is a risk too. However, as ever, just because something needs to be done doesn't mean this something is the answer. There are clearly many, many alternatives. As per the CBI, what about investing in education and training, in encouraging R&D? What about a focus on productivity? Or what about investing in and reforming social care?
    Politicians' logic:

    We must do something.

    This is something.

    Therefore, we must do this.

    Alternatively:

    All cats have four legs

    My dog has four legs

    Therefore, my dog is a cat.
    At least this "something" is something different than what's been tried in the recent past.
    Mad right-wing, Lafferian tax cuts have been tried plenty in the recent past in other parts of the world and they never worked.
    As far as I'm concerned they've worked when they've been consistently tried across the board, from extremely high bases.

    What doesn't work is jacking up taxes on some, to pay for tax cuts for others, or abolishing taxes that were already low. That hasn't happened here, this is consistent tax cuts for all
    Also there is demonstrable evidence that Sunak's policies are failing. His tax increases are fetching nowhere near what was expected of them, whilst the economy tanks and inflation soars.

    The Laffer curve may or may not work, but high taxes certainly do not.
    Exactly, I am curious from those who are so critical how much of a compound growth differential they're expecting from this? Literally no growth differential at all, despite everyone working for a living having more money in their pockets relative to this not happening? Or 1% per annum? 2%?

    People are acting like it will have zero change at all, which is not realistic.
    I’ll give you realism. Growth comes only from investment in people, upskilling, infrastructure, not from tax cuts - you can’t guarantee how much tax cuts trickle down to the type of investment needed for growth.

    So how much you saying is going to be reinvested to create growth? And how much you saying is going to be banked or invested in yachts and property - zero as you asked us?

    More importantly if there is growth, do all parts of the UK and society benefit fairly, or has it always been grossly uneven, centred around south east of UK?

    There’s huge flaws in this policy and rhetoric an aware 15yr old pre sixth form can take apart. You think we are all so gullible these days not to spot what is really going on behind talk of trickle down economics.
  • MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127

    As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.

    It's fantastic for me - but I don't need the help.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Hmm. I'm not sure how to react to all this.

    Rachel Reeves has more satire than content.

    This is very much froth from KK imo. Lots of badda-badda-bam, but little subtlety.

    The extent of the low business tax zones is interesting - "West Midlands", "Norfolk". But raising Business Rates to their appropriate level by updating property values resulted in a huge squealing in the SE like stuck pigs, so perhaps cutting them for the others is an alternative.

    Driving the demand side of housing again by a crude reduction of Stamp Duty seems Krazy, compared to attempting to create a less distorted market.

    That list of prioritised projects bears some examination.

    Northern Powerhouse Rail is an actual impossibility at the moment, because it won't work without HS2 tracks being built to Leeds. So either they're not doing it, or they're doing something different and calling it NPR.

    If it is what was announced in the IRP, then they are complicit in misleading the House because that is infeasible. Literally, it cannot be done.
    I'm not convinced that's correct. Even in the rather messy recent NPR proposals, there are a fair few upgrades that could be done before HS2 reaches the north. e.g. electrifying Leeds to Hull. True, HS2 is needed to get the most of it, but there's still lots of other work that is probably not dependent on that project.
    Yes, like, for example, MML electrification to Yorkshire.

    But they're not 'Northern Powerhouse Rail.' They are not a new high-speed line linking the East and West coast via the major conurbations across the Pennines.
    I think your definition is incorrect. You are talking about what was HS3: I believe NPR has always been a series of upgrades and enhancements of existing routes, along with potential new ones. Unless your new lines are a spaghetti monster, it's the only way of connecting all the towns and cities.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    Really hard to overstate the degree to which the Kwarteng Budget has just wrecked the Gilt market.

    Chart shows 20 day change in 5yr fixed rate yields since 1993. Market completely spooked.


    https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1573251529771188224

    Government bonds are selling off everywhere....also, the bank of England is starting to unwind its enormous balance sheet, the one that Sunak racked up spending GBP400bn paying people to do nothing.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    I’m going to have to turn to Labour to sort the economy

    Not something I thought I’d ever say
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    So the political strategy of the Tories is to borrow a lot of money to enable a few headline announcements in the hope that they somehow we make us all forget that they've been in power for 12 years. One hell of a gamble.
  • Did he change the timezone?
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    Really hard to overstate the degree to which the Kwarteng Budget has just wrecked the Gilt market.

    Chart shows 20 day change in 5yr fixed rate yields since 1993. Market completely spooked.


    https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1573251529771188224
    Barty will be along soon to tell us the gilt markets are being driven by innumerate idiots and they've got it all wrong.
    It’s a market, not a jury.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,023
    Berlusconi (soon probably back in government along with fellow Putin fanboy Salvini) really is an arsehole.
  • AlistairM said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    If you do make sure your training involves doing all 3 together. The first triathlon I did one I had done swimming, cycling and running training but always on their own. The transition from cycling to running was a killer and my thigh muscles just above the knees turned to jelly.
    Thanks, that's good advice. The swimming is the thing that I'm not looking forward to: I know I can run the distance with ease (normally...), and can easily cycle 20k on my heavy bike. I could even confidently attempt a biathlon. It's the swimming that'll be the challenge.

    And yes, I think I'll have to join the nutters who go swimming in the Ouse. Now, where's my old diving wetsuit?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,452
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Kwarteng has said: "Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services.
    Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services."

    How much growth is needed to make up for the £45 billion reduction in tax revenue? OK, this is my attempt at a back of an envelope calculation. Please do correct me! Let's say tax revenue is 30% of GDP, so to make up for £45 billion, you need the economy to grow by £45B/0.3 = £250 billion. UK GDP is £2.7 trillion, so growth of £250 billion would be 9¼%.

    The highest growth ever achieved since 1949 was 7.5% last year, with post-COVID bounce back. 6.5% was achieved in 1973 following Barber's dash for growth, which was followed by one of our worst recessions.

    We are not going to achieve 9¼% growth. These tax cuts will not pay for themselves. Public spending will have to be slashed.

    I think UK GDP is actually nearer £2.2trn, 2.7trn may be in dollars. But the bigger flaw is that you are imposing a time scale of a year on this. If the changes resulted in the UK growing 2% faster over 5 or more years then the costs of the package will gradually be offset and then the shortfall can be recovered. Its a risk, no question, but as Simon Clarke put it this morning doing nothing is a risk too. In fact, its not so much a risk as a certainty: the current level of public spending and services cannot be sustained on the current economy with low growth.
    Yes. I see the “budget” this way

    We are stuck in a horrible traffic jam and it’s getting cold and dark. We might not be home tonight. The kids are fractious, hungry. Petrol is running low. There are rumours of people violently robbing the stationary cars

    Kwarteng has pulled out of the jam, crossed the white lines, and we are now roaring along at 140mph, on the wrong but empty side of the road. Incredibly risky. Might work. But we might hit oncoming traffic and die. The kids stare out of the car window, bewildered

    We've bet the house on black at the roulette table. It's a hugely risky strategy, yet if the UK economy does see significant growth over the next two years, say 3-5% per year then it will have paid off. The alternative feels like an IMF bail out.
    You think there is a 47.4% chance of this working??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    kamski said:

    Berlusconi (soon probably back in government along with fellow Putin fanboy Salvini) really is an arsehole.

    Some context ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    2023 is booked up - I'm currently in training to do 52 marathons next year, to celebrate my 50th birthday! At least that's my intent...

    My vague plan is to not run between the weekly marathons, and instead swim and cycle to give my back and knee muscles a different workout. So I'll use 2023 to train for the triathlon. I'll try and do one in April/May 2024 as a backup, and then the St Neots triathlon in September. If I decide to do it. The swim's the frightening one for me - I've never been a good swimmer.

    As ever, plans depend on external events. I missed two months of running this summer due to my old ankle injury flaring up and having to do childcare. I put on nearly ten kilos. I've shed half that in three weeks of dieting and exercise.
    Why, in the name of sweet Holy fuck-Moses would anyone run 52 marathons in a year?!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    The stock market has taken a dive.

    Any chance we can get Boris back?

    By most accounts KK's a nutter
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    kinabalu said:

    The question is which is the worse tory shit? This trickledown magic money tree economics tory shit? Or the culture 'war on woke' tory shit? Hmm, a toughie.

    The worst manure is that the number of people who are clearly so physically unable to work that even the Atos-style regime can't pass them, is steadily increasing, because NHS waiting times both for essential appointments and surgery, both in-patient and out-patient, are also steadily increasing.

    Meanwhile inflation continues unabated, hitting the bottom end hardest, and another huge price rise is about to hit.

    Some of these people will be facing malnutrition, homelessness, or possibly even starvation , by the end of the year, because of ever-more stretched foodbank resources, as my Trussell Trust friends say, but in the comfortable world of PB this has yet to register any major interest.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    Interesting. I’m tracking the only publicly listed UK residential REIT, PRS.

    Its share price is down ~20% in the last couple of weeks, now well below its NAV.

    A month or so, ago, I was thinking of buying in to a) gain real estate exposure in my isa - and b ) as a left-field hedge against very high domestic energy prices in case the government didn’t step in. They rent out new, highly energy efficient family homes and have a lot of scope to up the rents in an environment of sustained very-high energy prices.

    Looks like I made the right call, holding off on buying their shares. I suspect the fall in value is explained by a) investor nervousness that the NAV of their portfolio will reduce if/when house prices fall - and b ) investors who bought in, seeking ~4% dividends, now having viable alternative options, for the first time in a long time.

    EG, You can now get a 4.1% 3 year, fscs protected bond from a retail building society.

    Why bother with the risk associated with a REIT?

    Anyway, the PRS share price is a good way to track real-time investor sentiment in UK residential property. Eg, It hasn’t ticked up in reaction to the stamp duty cut.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,023
    Pulpstar said:

    kamski said:

    Berlusconi (soon probably back in government along with fellow Putin fanboy Salvini) really is an arsehole.

    Some context ?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63005402
  • Tories don't care about young people.

    Housing - not solved
    Transport - not solved
    Tuition fees - not solved

    VOTE.

    The only solution you are interested in for tuition fees is yours to be cancelled. If the country wants around 50% of its 18 to 23 year olds to go to University, it needs paying for. Back in the last century there was a time when only 5% went to Uni. Much easier to finance.

    Teaching costs money. You need staff, buildings and for sciences in particular labs. Its not cheap.

    You could argue for a graduate tax - but tuition fees are a capped graduate tax. I'd rather the current system, than a flat graduate tax, but others may not agree.

    On housing - we have huge issues. I'm not sure what the answers are. Simply building more may help as our population keeps getting bigger and we also have a lot more single occupancy houses (divorces etc).

    Transport - what do you want to see? The Elizabeth line has opened in London. I don't think they have cancelled the big new shiny train set to the North?
    I’ve told you many times my solution for tuition fees.

    Cut the number of degrees in half and then make the remainder free.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,023
    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/23/liverpool-fans-1700-legal-action-uefa-paris-champions-league-final

    Clients have reported anxiety, PTSD, nightmares, never wanting to go to a European football match or even France again.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,452
    AlistairM said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower-league football clubs already planning on 13:00 kickoffs through the winter, to save the cost of the floodlights.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/09/22/Mansfield-town-early-kick-off-floodlights-cost/

    Good, sensible measure. Actions like these multiplied up across the country in many areas will mean a noticeable reduction in energy usage.
    So they lose the Sky subscribers watching Premiership matches at 12:00/12:30?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    Tories don't care about young people.

    Housing - not solved
    Transport - not solved
    Tuition fees - not solved

    VOTE.

    The only solution you are interested in for tuition fees is yours to be cancelled. If the country wants around 50% of its 18 to 23 year olds to go to University, it needs paying for. Back in the last century there was a time when only 5% went to Uni. Much easier to finance.

    Teaching costs money. You need staff, buildings and for sciences in particular labs. Its not cheap.

    You could argue for a graduate tax - but tuition fees are a capped graduate tax. I'd rather the current system, than a flat graduate tax, but others may not agree.

    On housing - we have huge issues. I'm not sure what the answers are. Simply building more may help as our population keeps getting bigger and we also have a lot more single occupancy houses (divorces etc).

    Transport - what do you want to see? The Elizabeth line has opened in London. I don't think they have cancelled the big new shiny train set to the North?
    I’ve told you many times my solution for tuition fees.

    Cut the number of degrees in half and then make the remainder free.
    Making the poorest in society pay for rich bankers to have gone to university. Very equitable.
  • LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    As someone who works for a bank and is a bit of a property developer on the side this is a perfect budget for me.

    As a senior hospital doctor with a 4 acre greenfield, it is good for me too. I shall miss the sheep.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    I’m going to have to turn to Labour to sort the economy

    Not something I thought I’d ever say

    20th century was the Tory century, their dominance in office founded upon Fiscal Conservatism, the main fear of Labour getting in was borrowing too much on a push for growth and wrecking the economy. It cost Labour election after election not neutralising this fear.

    Boris Johnson gave speeches on economics, promising all sorts of nice things in big brush strokes, after a while you wondered if he actually had any idea how to deliver what he was promising.

    But having removed Boris, the Tory’s have not gone back to what made them great and electable in the first place, balancing the books - instead they have borrowed money tree borrowing from Corbyn’s Labour, and using it to carpetbag for their own tribe and voters, not invest the borrowing properly in infrastructure and skills to provide growth.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,145

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Onshore wind is as much a solution as fracking. It would take several years to actually getting some output. So no help in the current situation (this winter)

    If you want more wind power, Dogger Bank etc is barely touched. On a timescale of years, increasing offshore wind is pretty much equal in difficulty to onshore. And the latest, most efficient turbines can’t be installed on land. Too big.
    Dogger Bank is the site of the current construction of the world's largest wind farm to date.
    Which was part of my point - it is the largest wind farm. But takes up a tiny, tiny percentage of the available resource - shallow water, with a really nice empty space around it for a long fetch for the wind.

    How many can you pile in before Dogger Bank is vaguely full?

    We can't do anything to change the generating capacity for a coupe of years - minus setup time for anything. At that distance in time, onshore and offshore are pretty much equal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    edited September 2022
    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office as Chancellor with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    edited September 2022
    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    A different view. This budget is merely very bad, not catastrophic.

    UK market reaction today doesn't screams panic, but equally all telling the same story - this is an unforced policy error that will be paid for with higher borrowing -> higher rates -> ultimately higher taxes over medium term.

    https://twitter.com/tomashirstecon/status/1573268598105473024
  • Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/23/liverpool-fans-1700-legal-action-uefa-paris-champions-league-final

    Clients have reported anxiety, PTSD, nightmares, never wanting to go to a European football match or even France again.

    Some would pay good money for a medical diagnosis that effectively prevents them from ever having to go to France again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932

    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
    George Osborne inherited a AAA rating. Reeves will inherit a far harder task.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656

    By election alert!


    Is Adam Werrity his assistant?
  • Did he change the timezone?

    They're going to change the timezone for the top 1% first. That's the most effective way of changing it for everyone apparently.
    It'll trickle down to the rest of us, one microsecond at a time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,593
    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office as Chancellor with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    Makes a change from it being the Tories cleaning up Labour's mess. If this budget does go to shit and Labour get into power then at least there will be some amusement seeing them wrestle with the dilemmas it imposes!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Good spot, carnforth. Good news indeed.
  • Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/23/liverpool-fans-1700-legal-action-uefa-paris-champions-league-final

    Clients have reported anxiety, PTSD, nightmares, never wanting to go to a European football match or even France again.

    Some would pay good money for a medical diagnosis that effectively prevents them from ever having to go to France again.
    Hello!

    You don’t need to pay good money for that when I’m here.
  • Jonathan said:

    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?

    This liberal is back supporting the Conservatives again after today. 👍

    Sunak lost my vote by increasing NI, Truss has won it back by reversing that mistake.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    FTSE100 below 7000?
  • 4 very different governments, one referendum, one pandemic, one war.

    When circumstances change you change your response.

    I am not saying I agree with any of those responses but criticising 4 different PMs for having different ideas of how to deal with rapidly changing circumstances is not really a sustainable argument.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    This is Greek fiscal policy. It didn't work for them. Nor will it for us. We won't even have the Germans to bail us out(!)

    Sooner or later the brakes will be slammed. Sooner if the current tanking of the gilt market is any guide.

    Really hard to overstate the degree to which the Kwarteng Budget has just wrecked the Gilt market.

    Chart shows 20 day change in 5yr fixed rate yields since 1993. Market completely spooked.


    https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1573251529771188224
    Barty will be along soon to tell us the gilt markets are being driven by innumerate idiots and they've got it all wrong.
    It’s a market, not a jury.
    As far as the government's ability to finance borrowing is concerned, that's much the same thing in the end.
  • biggles said:

    By election alert!


    Is Adam Werrity his assistant?
    That's a blast from the past!
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
    George Osborne inherited a AAA rating. Reeves will inherit a far harder task.
    What larks.. if she does inherit.. there is no money left....
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    Is there any indication that Truss is going to do anything to cut public spending?
    Otherwise it isn't really correct that this is a 'right wing' government. They seem more like a continuation of the previous 'populist fantasy' government, but with the added bonus of tax cuts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682

    4 very different governments, one referendum, one pandemic, one war.

    When circumstances change you change your response.

    I am not saying I agree with any of those responses but criticising 4 different PMs for having different ideas of how to deal with rapidly changing circumstances is not really a sustainable argument.
    It all adds up to 12 years of Tory mismanagement.
  • 4 very different governments, one referendum, one pandemic, one war.

    When circumstances change you change your response.

    I am not saying I agree with any of those responses but criticising 4 different PMs for having different ideas of how to deal with rapidly changing circumstances is not really a sustainable argument.
    If we just believe hard enough!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Jonathan said:

    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?

    This liberal is back supporting the Conservatives again after today. 👍

    Sunak lost my vote by increasing NI, Truss has won it back by reversing that mistake.
    If ever there was a PB post to unnerve Conservatives…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,874
    Roger said:

    The stock market has taken a dive.

    Any chance we can get Boris back?

    By most accounts KK's a nutter

    The FTSE is down slightly less than the European average today but, hey, whatever.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,593
    Farage is on side.

    Today was the best Conservative budget since 1986.
    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1573278502790791168
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Thought experiment. If $1 > £1 does Truss resign?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
    George Osborne inherited a AAA rating. Reeves will inherit a far harder task.
    What larks.. if she does inherit.. there is no money left....
    “Turns out there was some money left, but we spent it all”.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594
    Leon said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    2023 is booked up - I'm currently in training to do 52 marathons next year, to celebrate my 50th birthday! At least that's my intent...

    My vague plan is to not run between the weekly marathons, and instead swim and cycle to give my back and knee muscles a different workout. So I'll use 2023 to train for the triathlon. I'll try and do one in April/May 2024 as a backup, and then the St Neots triathlon in September. If I decide to do it. The swim's the frightening one for me - I've never been a good swimmer.

    As ever, plans depend on external events. I missed two months of running this summer due to my old ankle injury flaring up and having to do childcare. I put on nearly ten kilos. I've shed half that in three weeks of dieting and exercise.
    Why, in the name of sweet Holy fuck-Moses would anyone run 52 marathons in a year?!
    Eddie Izzard did one a day for a month.

    That’s not bad for a middle aged woman is it ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,874
    It's difficult, no doubt about it. But governments are right to try. And try again.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment. If $1 > £1 does Truss resign?

    Not unless the Tory MPs VONC her....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?

    This liberal is back supporting the Conservatives again after today. 👍

    Sunak lost my vote by increasing NI, Truss has won it back by reversing that mistake.
    You're not a fan of sound money. Borrowing for tax cuts is such a no-no it beggars belief that anyone with half a brain cell could go for that. Tax cuts focussed on folks earning over £150k, well that's just taking the piss.
    Tax cuts for everyone inevitably leads to most of the benefit going to those who pay most tax. Unless you beat up the tenth man.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?

    This liberal is back supporting the Conservatives again after today. 👍

    Sunak lost my vote by increasing NI, Truss has won it back by reversing that mistake.
    You're not a fan of sound money. Borrowing for tax cuts is such a no-no it beggars belief that anyone with half a brain cell could go for that. Tax cuts focussed on folks earning over £150k, well that's just taking the piss.
    When taxes are at record highs and are strangling economic growth as a result, and when borrowing was cyclically low pre-recession, and when you're in a recession caused by an exogenous shock . . . that's precisely the right time to borrow if required and cutting tax rates raises more tax revenues over the longer term, paying for that borrowing in full.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
    George Osborne inherited a AAA rating. Reeves will inherit a far harder task.
    What larks.. if she does inherit.. there is no money left....
    Like 1974.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Leon said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    2023 is booked up - I'm currently in training to do 52 marathons next year, to celebrate my 50th birthday! At least that's my intent...

    My vague plan is to not run between the weekly marathons, and instead swim and cycle to give my back and knee muscles a different workout. So I'll use 2023 to train for the triathlon. I'll try and do one in April/May 2024 as a backup, and then the St Neots triathlon in September. If I decide to do it. The swim's the frightening one for me - I've never been a good swimmer.

    As ever, plans depend on external events. I missed two months of running this summer due to my old ankle injury flaring up and having to do childcare. I put on nearly ten kilos. I've shed half that in three weeks of dieting and exercise.
    Why, in the name of sweet Holy fuck-Moses would anyone run 52 marathons in a year?!
    All relative, in my experience. I find any run below a half marathon a bit unfulfilling now.

    I'm always amazed that people don't get put off by the injuries though - I have a recurring problem in my hip/groin area that stops me getting to the 75km a week I'd like to do.
  • carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Onshore wind is as much a solution as fracking. It would take several years to actually getting some output. So no help in the current situation (this winter)

    If you want more wind power, Dogger Bank etc is barely touched. On a timescale of years, increasing offshore wind is pretty much equal in difficulty to onshore. And the latest, most efficient turbines can’t be installed on land. Too big.
    Dogger Bank is the site of the current construction of the world's largest wind farm to date.
    Which was part of my point - it is the largest wind farm. But takes up a tiny, tiny percentage of the available resource - shallow water, with a really nice empty space around it for a long fetch for the wind.

    How many can you pile in before Dogger Bank is vaguely full?

    We can't do anything to change the generating capacity for a coupe of years - minus setup time for anything. At that distance in time, onshore and offshore are pretty much equal.
    Worth bearing in mind that the Dogger Bank is far more than just a bit of shallow water in the middle of the North Sea. It is also one of the most important spawning grounds for many of our North Sea fish species.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    This one has to be a first:

    Qatar will be shutting its borders for two months starting Novermber 1st, to all tourists except for World Cup ticket-holders.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/transport/2022/09/22/qatar-shuts-its-borders-to-non-world-cup-ticket-holders-from-november-1/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    edited September 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment. If $1 > £1 does Truss resign?

    Why on earth would that be a resignation matter?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment. If $1 > £1 does Truss resign?

    Dunno, but if the dollar is overheating by that much then Biden might have issues.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You have to feel sorry for Rachel Reeves today. She is going to take office with an almighty mess to clear up. It's an incredibly difficult job.

    How much sympathy did you show to George Osborne for that?
    George Osborne inherited a AAA rating. Reeves will inherit a far harder task.
    What larks.. if she does inherit.. there is no money left....
    Like 1974.
    Or 2010
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Are there any conservatives left in the Conservative party? Or are they all Kwasi-conservatives now?

    This liberal is back supporting the Conservatives again after today. 👍

    Sunak lost my vote by increasing NI, Truss has won it back by reversing that mistake.
    You're not a fan of sound money. Borrowing for tax cuts is such a no-no it beggars belief that anyone with half a brain cell could go for that. Tax cuts focussed on folks earning over £150k, well that's just taking the piss.
    When taxes are at record highs and are strangling economic growth as a result, and when borrowing was cyclically low pre-recession, and when you're in a recession caused by an exogenous shock . . . that's precisely the right time to borrow if required and cutting tax rates raises more tax revenues over the longer term, paying for that borrowing in full.
    Tory Economic Policy


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    edited September 2022

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Onshore wind is as much a solution as fracking. It would take several years to actually getting some output. So no help in the current situation (this winter)

    If you want more wind power, Dogger Bank etc is barely touched. On a timescale of years, increasing offshore wind is pretty much equal in difficulty to onshore. And the latest, most efficient turbines can’t be installed on land. Too big.
    Dogger Bank is the site of the current construction of the world's largest wind farm to date.
    Which was part of my point - it is the largest wind farm. But takes up a tiny, tiny percentage of the available resource - shallow water, with a really nice empty space around it for a long fetch for the wind.

    How many can you pile in before Dogger Bank is vaguely full?

    We can't do anything to change the generating capacity for a coupe of years - minus setup time for anything. At that distance in time, onshore and offshore are pretty much equal.
    The three dogger bank projects take up 1674 km2 and are plated at 1.2 GW each.

    Dogger bank has 17600 km2 so you could squeeze about 37 GW of plated generation out of it which at a capacity factor of 45% is ~ 17GW. Bigger turbines for future parts might be able to improve the plated number.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,876

    4 very different governments, one referendum, one pandemic, one war.

    When circumstances change you change your response.

    I am not saying I agree with any of those responses but criticising 4 different PMs for having different ideas of how to deal with rapidly changing circumstances is not really a sustainable argument.
    It is an utterly stupid argument made only by people who are morons. The circumstances in 2022 are so different that if the government wasn't taking some sort of drastic action I'd be really worried. Are they doing the right thing? Nobody knows, but you can be absolutely certain that sailing on as though nothing has changed would lead to disaster.

    If there's one thing I'd like to elminate from politics forever it's people bleating on about "U-turns", changing your mind and plans when circumstances change, or your previous plan didn't work, is a good thing. We ought to praise such decisions not criticise them.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited September 2022
    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut to corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall
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