Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com
Although it is less than 3-weeks since Liz Truss became the leader of the Conservative Party and was made Prime Minister the betting markets are still far from convinced that she will lead the party to victory in the general election.
Mid-term polling is never very telling. I know it's difficult for politics nerds, but most people don't focus on politics until a few months before the next election, unless there's a massive and urgent crisis on.
Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.
You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?
But you know that don't you? You're being partisan for the sake of it.
For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.
Probably doesn't help that next to Kwarteng is Simon Clarke. Who this morning was talking about a new government making new decisions. Instead of their mistakes in raising taxes to boost income they will cut taxes to boost income.
So whoever was responsible for these terrible decisions, it wasn't him. He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury, what does it have to do with him?
I reckon the Tories might gain Cov NW against the general tide next GE...
Liberalising planning rules in areas - better follow through on that. 👏👏👏
This lot have been in office for 12 years and we have a serious shortage of generating capacity. The shortages we now face have been predicted for years before Putin went into Ukraine. Blaming this government for the clear and widely understood failings of this government - and the same for previous governments when they fail - is something voters are very savvy about.
Every solution to the energy problem this winter, needs to work on the basis that supply is 15-20% down in last year. Therefore, demand MUST drop by that amount, irrespective of how that happens.
Describing the £2,500 energy price cap as a saving is a huge faux, still means a lot of people will be paying a lot more than last year.
FPT: He's applying normal political argument standards.
Comparing what has happened with a modelled projection, and calling it a real difference.
(Is the bloke a Remainer ?)
Whether it is perceived as a real saving will be interesting. My take is that the issue is significantly neutralised in the short to shortish term, but that there is a UXB attached, with an indeterminate time fuse. And that the lumpen media are going to have to find something else with which to scare their readers.
I note that La Truss's 2 year freeze extends to within 3 months of the latest possible date for the next election.
On which basis I forecast the 2024 election to be September 2024 or earlier.
SLAM: we're cutting the bankers bonus cap to bring more of them to London
SLAM: we're creating special local piracy zones where locals have no say
SLAM: we're cutting taxes for the well off
Hell, a 1/10 certainty for this time next year, could be profitably invested elsewhere.
After all, once you're explaining, you're winning, aren't you?
I'm voting Tory...
Tories hate the indigenous British IIRC
I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.
Have never seen a special economic activity like this. Nor one received so badly in the house.
Abolition of 45% tax rate
But spending on stuff will continue at the same speed.
Bonkers. Gloriously bonkers! Politics is such fun.
It is like Bullingdon Club economics.
Smash the restaurant and then get someone else to clean up.
It will be interesting just how this is received in the coming days
Truro Food Bank manager Simon Fann said: "[We have had] reports of children having upset stomachs, or, in worst cases, food poisoning because some parents are turning their fridges and freezers off overnight."
Now, it's to my professional shame that there are people out there who don't know the best things to do, because my colleages and I really did our best. But as with Covid (it's a germ, do the things we do to stop germs spreading), it's naive to think that public information is unnecessary.
Basically- heat is the thing. Turn the thermostat down, only heat rooms you are using, put on a jumper on.
In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?
Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?
It says something when I regard Bozo as sane...
Top rate of tax gone. Good.
Will be massively controversial. Paired with a cut in the basic rate, which may get some headlines too. (I disapprove of the latter.)
Kwarteng has opened the door for Labour to reverse everything he's just done - and pin the blame on the Tories.
Showering money on the London rich and making goods 20% more expensive for Brits than foreigners will be a tough sell in Don Valley.
Starmer does not look too happy
EDIT: or do they mean re-introducing over the counter tax free? If so, back to the days of show the ticket....
Cost of these tax cuts alone will come to £45bn in a few years. Enormous. And this is before you take into account the energy price guarantee, which will be roughly £60bn EVERY SIX MONTHS… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573237876510396417/photo/1
Not going to lie, this statement has made me personally much better off, which doesn't sit right when we see what's happening in the country.
If Putin wants to escalate things from there, that will be up to him. It can escalate very quickly indeed, if that’s what he wants. Maybe on Day 3, we nuke Murmansk.
TBH I think VAT-free shopping makes sense. The UK is a huge tourism destination, and with the pound tanking against the dollar it makes us very attractive to Americans. Whilst they are here why not have them spend even more on stuff to take home? Any tourism destination wants to fleece the maximum possible from tourists.
No one was expecting an income tax cut for all. Kwartang has smashed this out of the park.
This really is a fantastic tax cutting Government. Right, where are the corresponding cuts to services coming from?
I would presume the US will be talking with China, India etc regarding possible responses. Putin is indulging in extraordinarily reckless threats; it's extremely unlikely that any other country is happy about that.
Why bother paying tax at all
EDIT - no, the OBR have actually done the work. And he is refusing to release it.