Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

Although it is less than 3-weeks since Liz Truss became the leader of the Conservative Party and was made Prime Minister the betting markets are still far from convinced that she will lead the party to victory in the general election.

Read the full story here

Fishing

"Next week’s round of polling could be very telling."

Mid-term polling is never very telling. I know it's difficult for politics nerds, but most people don't focus on politics until a few months before the next election, unless there's a massive and urgent crisis on.

squareroot2

It will be very telling for those who want to believe it.

state_go_away

Not much support for Martin Lewis

HYUFD

The odds still favour Starmer as PM but with most seats, not a majority. A reverse of 2010

BartholomewRoberts

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

RochdalePioneers

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

BartholomewRoberts

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

No, the Government haven't doubled their energy bills, the Russians etc have caused prices to go up.

But you know that don't you? You're being partisan for the sake of it.

Sandpit

FPT:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

RochdalePioneers

This is an unusual special economic exercise. Budgets and Spring/Autumn statements usually heard in relative calm. This one is being openly laughed at.

Probably doesn't help that next to Kwarteng is Simon Clarke. Who this morning was talking about a new government making new decisions. Instead of their mistakes in raising taxes to boost income they will cut taxes to boost income.

So whoever was responsible for these terrible decisions, it wasn't him. He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury, what does it have to do with him?

Icarus

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

Unfortunately for Liz Truss many typical Conservative voters in big detached houses will be paying £5,000. In fact as many as are paying less than £2,500 will be paying more and the £400 payment runs out next March.

TheScreamingEagles

Big shout out to the people who successfully laid Martin Lewis as next PM.

LostPassword

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

No, the Government haven't doubled their energy bills, the Russians etc have caused prices to go up.

But you know that don't you? You're being partisan for the sake of it.

I agree with Pioneers on this one. If people's bills are still higher this winter, to a fairly shocking extent, then the government messaging is all wrong. They shouldn't be congratulating themselves on how much good they've done, as it will be discordant with people's personal experience. It will probably lead people to assume that "other people" have benefited more than they have and the government have picked on them personally.

Pulpstar

Sherbourne result is very poor for Labour.

I reckon the Tories might gain Cov NW against the general tide next GE...

BartholomewRoberts

Abolishing stupid EU rules like the bankers bonus cap, attracting more taxes to be paid in the UK rather than abroad. 👏👏👏

Liberalising planning rules in areas - better follow through on that. 👏👏👏

RochdalePioneers

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

No, the Government haven't doubled their energy bills, the Russians etc have caused prices to go up.

But you know that don't you? You're being partisan for the sake of it.

What you and I think doesn't matter much. Its what the *voters* think that matters. And from what we see and hear they think a lot more like me on this one than you.

This lot have been in office for 12 years and we have a serious shortage of generating capacity. The shortages we now face have been predicted for years before Putin went into Ukraine. Blaming this government for the clear and widely understood failings of this government - and the same for previous governments when they fail - is something voters are very savvy about.

Sandpit

state_go_away said:

Not much support for Martin Lewis

It’s easy to identify problems, and more difficult to identify solutions.

Every solution to the energy problem this winter, needs to work on the basis that supply is 15-20% down in last year. Therefore, demand MUST drop by that amount, irrespective of how that happens.

Razedabode

Get those horrible universal credit people into jobs - or we will cut it. Hmm

TheScreamingEagles

Kwarteng has made a huge error with his special fiscal operation.

Describing the £2,500 energy price cap as a saving is a huge faux, still means a lot of people will be paying a lot more than last year.

BartholomewRoberts

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big shout out to the people who successfully laid Martin Lewis as next PM.

Big shout out to the people who successfully gave money to Smarkets traders at return less than inflation or interest rates.

MattW

Dethreaded. Gah.

FPT:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

He's applying normal political argument standards.

Comparing what has happened with a modelled projection, and calling it a real difference.

(Is the bloke a Remainer ?)

Whether it is perceived as a real saving will be interesting. My take is that the issue is significantly neutralised in the short to shortish term, but that there is a UXB attached, with an indeterminate time fuse. And that the lumpen media are going to have to find something else with which to scare their readers.

I note that La Truss's 2 year freeze extends to within 3 months of the latest possible date for the next election.

On which basis I forecast the 2024 election to be September 2024 or earlier.

TheScreamingEagles

BartholomewRoberts said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big shout out to the people who successfully laid Martin Lewis as next PM.

Big shout out to the people who successfully gave money to Smarkets traders at return less than inflation or interest rates.

Nah, the smugness of laying X at huge odds is priceless.

RochdalePioneers

Its a whistle-stop tour isn't it!
SLAM: we're cutting the bankers bonus cap to bring more of them to London
SLAM: we're creating special local piracy zones where locals have no say
SLAM: we're cutting taxes for the well off

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big shout out to the people who successfully laid Martin Lewis as next PM.

I dunno, at 1/1000 the value of money in two years’ time will have eaten the profits.

Hell, a 1/10 certainty for this time next year, could be profitably invested elsewhere.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kwarteng has made a huge error with his special fiscal operation.

Describing the £2,500 energy price cap as a saving is a huge faux, still means a lot of people will be paying a lot more than last year.

That will be fine, Bart and JRM will explain to them that it could have all been much much worse. And everyone will be grateful.

After all, once you're explaining, you're winning, aren't you?

AlistairM

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

That's why we need to have campaigns around how people can reduce their energy use. There will be very few cases where it will not be possible to find some reductions.

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kwarteng has made a huge error with his special fiscal operation.

Describing the £2,500 energy price cap as a saving is a huge faux, still means a lot of people will be paying a lot more than last year.

Its only double. Who are you to complain, a Putin apologist?

RochdalePioneers

Excellent news! They are repealing IR35!

I'm voting Tory...

ThePoliticalParty

Why should foreigner get away with not paying UK VAT in the UK

Tories hate the indigenous British IIRC

ExiledInScotland

RochdalePioneers said:

Excellent news! They are repealing IR35!

I'm voting Tory...

It might actually increase the tax take....

FeersumEnjineeya

Sandpit said:

state_go_away said:

Not much support for Martin Lewis

It’s easy to identify problems, and more difficult to identify solutions.

Every solution to the energy problem this winter, needs to work on the basis that supply is 15-20% down in last year. Therefore, demand MUST drop by that amount, irrespective of how that happens.

Globally, yes. Here in the UK, not necessarily. We could, for example, pay so much for gas that we outbid many other countries and keep gas use in the UK the same as last year. That would of course be a pretty daft idea, but you see what I mean.

rkrkrk

Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

RochdalePioneers

"I have another measure Mr Speaker"
SLAM
SLAM
SLAM

Have never seen a special economic activity like this. Nor one received so badly in the house.

Roger

Of all the Prime Ministers I remember Truss is uniquely unimpressive. There have been party leaders who could have given her a run for her money-IDS being the most obvious-but for a PM she is peerless.

Big_G_NorthWales

19% tax from April 23

Abolition of 45% tax rate

ExiledInScotland

Additional tax rate abolished. Wasn't expecting that

Razedabode

Blimey.. that is a brave statement

RochdalePioneers

Wowsers. He's abolishing the additional rate of tax. And cutting income tax. And cutting NI. And removing the planned revenues from higher Corporation Tax. And and and.

But spending on stuff will continue at the same speed.

Bonkers. Gloriously bonkers! Politics is such fun.

FeersumEnjineeya

rkrkrk said:

Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

AFAIK, no government has ever targeted lower economic growth, so I suppose the question we should be asking is what the government is targeting less in order to target economic growth more, and is that a good idea?

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

19% tax from April 23

Abolition of 45% tax rate

Just burning through as much debt as they can raise from the markets for the next two years and then leave the ensuing mess for Starmer and Reeves to clear up.

It is like Bullingdon Club economics.

Smash the restaurant and then get someone else to clean up.

ping

The children will pay for this insanity.

Pulpstar

Well thank fuck most of our big orders are in Euro.

Sandpit

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

RochdalePioneers

Who is Skeletor on the Labour front bench next to Reeves?

Big_G_NorthWales

Razedabode said:

Blimey.. that is a brave statement

That was very dramatic and revolutionary

It will be interesting just how this is received in the coming days

Stuartinromford

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RochdalePioneers said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.

Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.

Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?

That's why we need to have campaigns around how people can reduce their energy use. There will be very few cases where it will not be possible to find some reductions.

Absolutlely. The incentives are one thing, but people also need to know the sensible responses to those incentives. Otherwise you get people doing things like this;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-61478106

Truro Food Bank manager Simon Fann said: "[We have had] reports of children having upset stomachs, or, in worst cases, food poisoning because some parents are turning their fridges and freezers off overnight."

Now, it's to my professional shame that there are people out there who don't know the best things to do, because my colleages and I really did our best. But as with Covid (it's a germ, do the things we do to stop germs spreading), it's naive to think that public information is unnecessary.

Basically- heat is the thing. Turn the thermostat down, only heat rooms you are using, put on a jumper on.

SouthamObserver

Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?

londonpubman

Is the pound down to 1.00 v USD yet?!!!!

Razedabode

I really don’t think tearing up the last 12 years is politically savvy…bizarre.

AlistairM

ping said:

The children will pay for this insanity.

It is certainly different. So far the biggest changes in my working lifetime. It could go either way. Massive risk but potentially massive rewards. We shall see. We should all hope they've made the right call.

LostPassword

There are going to have to be some brutal spending cuts to balance the books. I'd be nervous if I was in charge of a local government budget.

Pulpstar

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

eek

AlistairM said:

ping said:

The children will pay for this insanity.

It is certainly different. So far the biggest changes in my working lifetime. It could go either way. Massive risk but potentially massive rewards. We shall see. We should all hope they've made the right call.

Can't see any potential rewards here - just a grade A mess...

It says something when I regard Bozo as sane...

TOPPING

LostPassword said:

There are going to have to be some brutal spending cuts to balance the books. I'd be nervous if I was in charge of a local government budget.

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/council-looking-make-ferocious-cuts-7605831

rottenborough

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
6m
Top rate of tax gone. Good.

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
5m
Will be massively controversial. Paired with a cut in the basic rate, which may get some headlines too. (I disapprove of the latter.)

Scott_xP

Awful economics. Awful politics.

Kwarteng has opened the door for Labour to reverse everything he's just done - and pin the blame on the Tories.

Showering money on the London rich and making goods 20% more expensive for Brits than foreigners will be a tough sell in Don Valley.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1573237333490651137

LostPassword

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

19% tax from April 23

Abolition of 45% tax rate

Just burning through as much debt as they can raise from the markets for the next two years and then leave the ensuing mess for Starmer and Reeves to clear up.

It is like Bullingdon Club economics.

Smash the restaurant and then get someone else to clean up.

This has been the Republican approach in the US, but the US can get away with it because people will lend to them while the GOP are wrecking the budget. Will the world carry on lending to the UK?

eek

In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

Big_G_NorthWales

RochdalePioneers said:

Who is Skeletor on the Labour front bench next to Reeves?

Pat McFadden ?

Starmer does not look too happy

bigjohnowls

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Who is Skeletor on the Labour front bench next to Reeves?

Pat McFadden ?

Starmer does not look too happy

SKS

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

Presumably, just as tax free shopping in the UK works now. The ability to purchase and take away, tax free, was removed a while back. What they offer now, is purchase inshore and get delivered to your address abroad

https://www.selfridges.com/GB/en/features/info/tax-free-shopping-explained/ etc

EDIT: or do they mean re-introducing over the counter tax free? If so, back to the days of show the ticket....

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

Looking forward to cashiers/salesfolk multiplying everything by .833333333333 for foreign visitors.

eek

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

It will have to be claimed back later after or as you depart - there is no other approach that could work....

Scott_xP

Another blimey:
Cost of these tax cuts alone will come to £45bn in a few years. Enormous. And this is before you take into account the energy price guarantee, which will be roughly £60bn EVERY SIX MONTHS… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573237876510396417/photo/1

MaxPB

Did he really cut the additional rate? What about allowance withdrawal at £100k?

Not going to lie, this statement has made me personally much better off, which doesn't sit right when we see what's happening in the country.

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Who is Skeletor on the Labour front bench next to Reeves?

Pat McFadden ?

Starmer does not look too happy

Fadden is very good. Will make an excellent cabinet minister in 2024/5.

Big_G_NorthWales

Razedabode said:

I really don’t think tearing up the last 12 years is politically savvy…bizarre.

Johnson who ?

OnlyLivingBoy

The government has just given me over ten grand, paid for by borrowing. I won't be spending any of it! Absolute insanity. Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

williamglenn

SouthamObserver said:

Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

Phil

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

Don’t overseas visitors already have VAT free shopping? I’m sure I used to see signs about it in the high-end shops round here.

Sandpit

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?

My suggestion would be Part I of the response, simply a demonstration of NATO firepower, all done inside 48 hours of a small tactical nuke from the Russians in Ukraine.

If Putin wants to escalate things from there, that will be up to him. It can escalate very quickly indeed, if that’s what he wants. Maybe on Day 3, we nuke Murmansk.

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

Awful economics. Awful politics.

Kwarteng has opened the door for Labour to reverse everything he's just done - and pin the blame on the Tories.

Showering money on the London rich and making goods 20% more expensive for Brits than foreigners will be a tough sell in Don Valley.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1573237333490651137

Surely this duel tax rate for VAT will be an absolute pay in the arse for small businesses and they will all have to do it? Or have I missed something?

RochdalePioneers

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

He said something about an electronic system.

TBH I think VAT-free shopping makes sense. The UK is a huge tourism destination, and with the pound tanking against the dollar it makes us very attractive to Americans. Whilst they are here why not have them spend even more on stuff to take home? Any tourism destination wants to fleece the maximum possible from tourists.

CarlottaVance

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

The old system was paper based - he mentioned the new system will be electronic - which will beat queuing behind the Chinese tourists at Heathrow.

Malmesbury

Phil said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

Don’t overseas visitors already have VAT free shopping? I’m sure I used to see signs about it in the high-end shops round here.

Yup - I think they mean returning to over-the-counter tax free shopping. Which was only abolished a couple of years ago, IIRC. At the moment, the store has to send the purchase to an address abroad.

MaxPB

I think the VAT free stuff is a reversal of something Rishi announced in 2020.

Sandpit

Phil said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

Don’t overseas visitors already have VAT free shopping? I’m sure I used to see signs about it in the high-end shops round here.

Rishi scrapped it a couple of years ago, fearing that EU visitors would cost the Treasury too much.

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/09/14/retailers-criticise-treasury-over-move-to-scrap-vat-free-shoppin/

Big_G_NorthWales

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The government has just given me over ten grand, paid for by borrowing. I won't be spending any of it! Absolute insanity. Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

You can donate it to the treasury

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Who is Skeletor on the Labour front bench next to Reeves?

Pat McFadden ?

Starmer does not look too happy

Shot his fox?.

No one was expecting an income tax cut for all. Kwartang has smashed this out of the park.

This really is a fantastic tax cutting Government. Right, where are the corresponding cuts to services coming from?

Nigelb

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?

It wouldn't cement that idea, were the consequences sufficiently unpleasant.
I would presume the US will be talking with China, India etc regarding possible responses. Putin is indulging in extraordinarily reckless threats; it's extremely unlikely that any other country is happy about that.

RochdalePioneers

Scott_xP said:

Awful economics. Awful politics.

Kwarteng has opened the door for Labour to reverse everything he's just done - and pin the blame on the Tories.

Showering money on the London rich and making goods 20% more expensive for Brits than foreigners will be a tough sell in Don Valley.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1573237333490651137

David is bob on with regards to the politics of this. I can understand why they are showing their patrons with as much cash as they can whilst they can. But it will only accelerate both their decline and the period they are likely to spend in opposition.

williamglenn

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The government has just given me over ten grand, paid for by borrowing. I won't be spending any of it! Absolute insanity. Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government

AlistairM

MaxPB said:

Did he really cut the additional rate? What about allowance withdrawal at £100k?

Not going to lie, this statement has made me personally much better off, which doesn't sit right when we see what's happening in the country.

Better make sure you spend your windfall!

SouthamObserver

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

Did he really cut the additional rate? What about allowance withdrawal at £100k?

Not going to lie, this statement has made me personally much better off, which doesn't sit right when we see what's happening in the country.

Yep same here. It's extraordinary. If people realised what was happening for those better off it might be an Aux Barricades moment.

bigjohnowls

IR35 FFS

Why bother paying tax at all

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?

My suggestion would be Part I of the response, simply a demonstration of NATO firepower, all done inside 48 hours of a small tactical nuke from the Russians in Ukraine.

If Putin wants to escalate things from there, that will be up to him. It can escalate very quickly indeed, if that’s what he wants. Maybe on Day 3, we nuke Murmansk.

Sigh.. I never did get to see Polyarny Inlet. Had an offer of a place on a tanker going that way, long ago. But was young, stupid and busy.....

Dura_Ace

Malmesbury said:

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.

Razedabode

I think this is an utter fuck up. Tories know they’ll lose the next election and just spaffing whatever random policy to shore up the base

RochdalePioneers

Sandpit said:

Phil said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

Don’t overseas visitors already have VAT free shopping? I’m sure I used to see signs about it in the high-end shops round here.

Rishi scrapped it a couple of years ago, fearing that EU visitors would cost the Treasury too much.

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/09/14/retailers-criticise-treasury-over-move-to-scrap-vat-free-shoppin/

It won't. People intending to buy things like expensive watches have a choice where to buy them if they also travel. May as well take their dollah rather than somewhere else.

Pulpstar

Hmm we've seen what happens when people feel they're earning enough to be comfy with the GPs. Lifetime pension allowance hit early, more part time working, early retirement.

Driver

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

Awful economics. Awful politics.

Kwarteng has opened the door for Labour to reverse everything he's just done - and pin the blame on the Tories.

Showering money on the London rich and making goods 20% more expensive for Brits than foreigners will be a tough sell in Don Valley.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1573237333490651137

David is bob on with regards to the politics of this. I can understand why they are showing their patrons with as much cash as they can whilst they can. But it will only accelerate both their decline and the period they are likely to spend in opposition.

I think they'll be happy with accelerating the period they spend in opposition.

Mexicanpete

Beer prices cut. Phew, the RedWall back on board.

pm215

eek said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

How does this work ?

Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?

It will have to be claimed back later after or as you depart - there is no other approach that could work....

In Japan's similar scheme, approved large shops have a setup where you show your passport and they confirm that it has a suitably dated entry stamp for a short-term visa, and then you pay the without-tax price at point of purchase.

OnlyLivingBoy

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The government has just given me over ten grand, paid for by borrowing. I won't be spending any of it! Absolute insanity. Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government

Nah they'll just spend it on introducing imperial measurements, more tax cuts for the donor class or taking photos of JRM.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

LostPassword said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good

He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

And there is more to come.

Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning

FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.

One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.

Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?

Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.

Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.

Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.

The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?

It wouldn't cement that idea, were the consequences sufficiently unpleasant.
I would presume the US will be talking with China, India etc regarding possible responses. Putin is indulging in extraordinarily reckless threats; it's extremely unlikely that any other country is happy about that.

Xi and Modi were both quite clear with Putin last week. He’ll be getting the Kim Jong-Un treatment, if he’s stupid enough to risk global armageddon.

RochdalePioneers

Oh dear oh dear. Tory Chair of the Treasury Select Committee tears Kwarteng a new one because he hasn't run any of these numbers through the OBR.

EDIT - no, the OBR have actually done the work. And he is refusing to release it.

williamglenn

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

Endillion

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The government has just given me over ten grand, paid for by borrowing. I won't be spending any of it! Absolute insanity. Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government

Nah they'll just spend it on introducing imperial measurements, more tax cuts for the donor class or taking photos of JRM.

Commissioning oil paintings, please.

Driver

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

Excellent - a shift from the State to the third sector.