That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
@Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic. What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.
Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
Actually gas usage has fallen over the past two decades and coal use has been almost eliminated. So you're wrong, categorically wrong. Gas use is down, not up.
It has fallen over the last two decades, and stayed the same over the last decade. Slice it at different times to get the result you want, but it's still almost exactly what it was 12 years ago.
Because coal took more of the fall in recent years. But coal can't keep falling, so as wind increases now gas falls instead. 🤦♂️
We're going to get a fall in nuclear power between 2024 and 2027 btw
At some point we will be left pretty much with wind, solar, gas and biomass.
Whose stupid idea was it to focus on gas because it was quicker ahead of nuclear and tidal again?
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Hey mate, what was ya tipple.
Was it an obscure craft beer. A dry hopped IPA brewed by a small brewery in the Home Counties or was it a regular beer ?
I’ve paid more than that a pint in the north east but only for obscure craft beers.
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
Johnson was crap.
Liz is worse.
Johnson was depressing.
Truss is worrying.
Worrying because it might work?
Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
On that question, I now think she’s more likely than not to be re-elected. The U.K. economy is robust enough that she can spaff billions up the wall for a few years to help her win and point to (undoubtedly) - bit of a growth boost. It’s just the wrong policy.
I am not sure. The responses from Welsh RedWallers was less than positive this lunchtime.
Are we sure that we will get the promised growth with the backdrop of inflation, mortgage rate hikes, a European War, fluctuating energy prices, a wage- price spiral and an unstable pound?
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Last Sunday I paid £3.20. Mind you, Tiffany and Bryan Adams featured on the jukebox...
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Ah, I see where you're going wrong logically.
This is not about "giving money back", it's about taking less money. To give money to non-taxpayers, you need to beat up the tenth man.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Last Sunday I paid £3.20. Mind you, Tiffany and Bryan Adams featured on the jukebox...
Greetings Mr Rip Van Winkle, boy are you going to have a few surprises!
Nah, the whole front consists of villages swapping back and forward. It is dynamically static.
It looks like Ukraine has given up on eastern Bakhmut and blown the bridge across the river so Russia is still making slowwwww progress there.
However, it does look like further north, Ukraine might be be about to take a whole bunch more Russian kit and POWs in Lyman. Seems the Russian lines have been breached and there is a great encirclement going on by a very large Ukrainian force. Latest drawn together here:
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
Part of the reason for the pound's weakness is today'as PMI data, showing conclusively that Sunak's socialist tax increases have crushed Britain's economy and are sending us into a recession.
Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.
Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
No.
And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale: This is back to the Barber years.
Yeah because the UK economy in 2022 is the same as it was in 1972, complete with vast union dominated coal mining areas, a huge subsidized car industry and a chinless wonder filled pint sized capital markets sector...
FFS, what a joke.
I have no idea what you're trying to say, but TBF that isn't unusual given your longstanding lack of coherence.
Unfunded tax cuts at times of high inflation, in this funny place called the real world that most of us inhabit, tend to be rather unfortunate in their effects.
Particularly when the state has over-geared its balance sheet on unproductive assets, like, say, the banking sector.
And intentionally incentivised a lot of people to using personal service companies in the near future. That is going to cost HMRC way more than the £1.1bn they estimate it to cost next year....
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Last Sunday I paid £3.20. Mind you, Tiffany and Bryan Adams featured on the jukebox...
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Hey mate, what was ya tipple.
Was it an obscure craft beer. A dry hopped IPA brewed by a small brewery in the Home Counties or was it a regular beer ?
I’ve paid more than that a pint in the north east but only for obscure craft beers.
We're all drinking this beer these days aren't we? Packs quite a punch does a can of the old Volodymyr.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Last Sunday I paid £3.20. Mind you, Tiffany and Bryan Adams featured on the jukebox...
Greetings Mr Rip Van Winkle, boy are you going to have a few surprises!
I certainly have - Hearts won 2-0, Sotland won 3-0!
The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.
I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.
If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
I invest primarily in the US markets, they do not grow our economy
Wrong.
If you get dividends from American firms then that brings wealth into this country from abroad and aids out current account deficit.
Our long term deficit on that has led to us making significant payments overseas now when prior to 1997 we got payments into this country.
Foreign dividend income doesn't affect GDP though, which is what he was talking about when he said it wouldn't grow our economy. Also, you are putting a very positive spin on capital flight.
In a statement with many positive enterprise measures this huge tax cut for the very rich at a time of national crisis & real fear & anxiety amongst low income workers & citizens is wrong.
Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.
Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
No.
And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale: This is back to the Barber years.
Yeah because the UK economy in 2022 is the same as it was in 1972, complete with vast union dominated coal mining areas, a huge subsidized car industry and a chinless wonder filled pint sized capital markets sector...
FFS, what a joke.
I have no idea what you're trying to say, but TBF that isn't unusual given your longstanding lack of coherence.
Unfunded tax cuts at times of high inflation, in this funny place called the real world that most of us inhabit, tend to be rather unfortunate in their effects.
Particularly when the state has over-geared its balance sheet on unproductive assets, like, say, the banking sector.
And intentionally incentivised a lot of people to using personal service companies in the near future. That is going to cost HMRC way more than the £1.1bn they estimate it to cost next year....
I registered mine just at the right moment, didn't I?
If I get a part-time job on top of the tutoring, I'm laughing.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Hey mate, what was ya tipple.
Was it an obscure craft beer. A dry hopped IPA brewed by a small brewery in the Home Counties or was it a regular beer ?
I’ve paid more than that a pint in the north east but only for obscure craft beers.
We're all drinking this beer these days aren't we? Packs quite a punch does a can of the old Volodymyr.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Last Sunday I paid £3.20. Mind you, Tiffany and Bryan Adams featured on the jukebox...
Greetings Mr Rip Van Winkle, boy are you going to have a few surprises!
Boris Johnson - you know, the host of Have I Got News For You - has been and gone as Prime Minister.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is still in a senior Government post, however.
And don't worry, you haven't massively overshot. It is just that Tony Blair looks 105....
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
You're not supposed to "pay it off" unless you are very well paid. A student "loan" is not a debt.
So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.
However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall
Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.
It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.
It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.
Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not held first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this needs to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
The red wall is a very diverse area. Plenty of parts where most property is over 125 grand, plenty earning good income, plenty IR35s, plenty paying basic rate income tax, plenty reliant on businesses succeeding. You dont have to be the biggest winner to be a winner.
The red wall are the red wall because for decades they have watched times of growth benefit the south east and not reach them.
The vox popping on budget picking up so much “rich people benefitting, not us” is politically toxic. Maybe the crisis help to households announcement should have been kept apart from the “big handouts to the rich” announcement as some kudos may have been swamped here.
The Great Brexit Betrayal has begun. The Red Wall were seduced with the promise of better services, a better NHS. Levelling Up.
To be fair to Johnson, he understood this and at least paid lip service to it.
That's all gone, hasn't it? The lunatics have taken over the asylum, implementing policies that have zero mandate from the country at large but which get the juices of Tory types flooding down their wizened, atrophied flanks.
It's the cynicism that gets me. Even though I knew it would come sooner or later, it was inevitable, it's the brazen Trumpite shamelessness of the whole endeavour that really galls.
If a new Labour leader had been parachuted in mid-term and was half as radical, can you imagine the howls of outrage from the client press, demanding an election? Screaming about illegitimacy?
The Tories have basically implied the Red Wall is gone already. We must never let them con the North ever again.
Labours problems aren't solved in the "north". What has labour really got to say to the north? The north didn't want Corbyn and his promises of more public spending. It is more like a cultural problem with the 'left behind' that just continues. I would guess that the "red wall" just splits between labour and conservative. It would be a fertile ground for a new populist party.
That's not strictly true. I know an awful lot of red wallers who switched Lab to Con very specifically because they supported more public spending. The charge being Labour hadn't done it, leaving the EU, the oven-ready plan and levelling-up as the solution.
Switch Lab => Con in the hope of more public spending? Not to say I am sceptical but I am sceptical. What was that definition of insanity again?
Brexit I'm all over that for the Red Wall and I get it.
Levelling up was (I say "was" because I presume they have jettisoned it now) the critical Cons policy of its age. It will be a shame (and a disaster electorally) if they don't deliver.
For many red wallers, leaving the EU and then voting Tory was very directly to get direct economic benefits. Labour government hadn't invested enough, Labour since the Danelaw councils didn't have the money or the intelligence to care, and suddenly they're told its all about the EU. Leave and we keep our money, get rid of the migrants, choose to spend our own money etc etc.
Why do you think "levelling up" then became "build back better" and then "freeports" and now "special economic zones". With a few exceptions, the cash promised hasn't arrived. So keep kicking the can down the road with a new name and a new threat that the opposition would scrap LU / BBB / FP / SEZ so keep backing the Tories if you want the shiny shiny.
Wasn't the FLSOJ iteration of the Tory party openly stating that red wall constituencies (among others) that voted Tory would get preferential cashmoney treatment? Now these peoples may be arseholes, but their abiding self interest indicates that they wouldn't say this unless they thought it would have an effect.
He didn't just say it, they have in a few places done it. Very little hard £ has been spent so far. But chunks have been promised. As an example, in my old neck of the woods, levelling up dollah was promised to rich places like Yarm (Stockton South, a 2019 Tory gain) and not to 10 years shorter life-expectancy places like Stockton's Town Centre ward (Stockton North, held by Labour just with thanks to BXP splitting the Tory vote).
Vote Tory get cash was the promise. The problem being that very little cash has appeared. Hence the constant renaming of what is coming. I think people should be very excited by the prospect of becoming a Special Economic Zone - a wholesale privatisation of services, planning and even the law. Like the wild west in America only with less shooting.
Less shooting for the time being, perhaps.
The problem is that in this country things work quietly and calmly because we believe that everything operates on a basis of fairness, honesty, transparency and respect for the rules.
If that belief breaks down -- and the Conservatives are pushing our trust to the limits - then I fear that we may stop being such a decent society. I obey the law, not because it has been made by Parliament with an 80 vote Conservative majority, but because the law is reasonable - or at least because I believe most of my fellow-citizens think that it is.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
You're not supposed to "pay it off" unless you are very well paid. A student "loan" is not a debt.
It is a debt though. You've borrowed money and you have to pay it back. That's a loan, you just don't like calling it that because you don't have an answer.
Much more important than what the markets do today is what they do next week after the analysts have had the weekend to absorb and work through all the detail. If they fall again, then the government is in serious trouble.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
What previous accounts do I have which have been banned, please?
The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.
I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.
If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
I invest primarily in the US markets, they do not grow our economy
Wrong.
If you get dividends from American firms then that brings wealth into this country from abroad and aids out current account deficit.
Our long term deficit on that has led to us making significant payments overseas now when prior to 1997 we got payments into this country.
US companies pay little in the way of dividends and even if they do, if chb is investing surplus money the likelihood is he is buying further shares with them.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
You're not supposed to "pay it off" unless you are very well paid. A student "loan" is not a debt.
It is a debt though. You've borrowed money and you have to pay it back. That's a loan, you just don't like calling it that because you don't have an answer.
No, it isn't. You don't have to pay it back - if you don't earn enough to pay it back it disappears after 25 years.
The amount you pay depends on what you earn, not what you "owe".
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Hey mate, what was ya tipple.
Was it an obscure craft beer. A dry hopped IPA brewed by a small brewery in the Home Counties or was it a regular beer ?
I’ve paid more than that a pint in the north east but only for obscure craft beers.
No it was pint of Stella I think, might have been a slightly nicer lager but it wasn't much. There was one lager, one ale and that was it
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
What previous accounts do I have which have been banned, please?
Summers: “Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
Seeing lots of reports on Twitter etc about scam energy rebate texts imitating HMG.
The government doesn’t give a flying fuck.
Surely most people would consider it a core government/police/security services responsibility to find & punish the fuckers openly defrauding the British public in this way?
Once upon a time you’d be bloody hung for doing this kind of shit.
It’s not that difficult to track them down and/or stop them using our infrastructure.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
You're not supposed to "pay it off" unless you are very well paid. A student "loan" is not a debt.
It is a debt though. You've borrowed money and you have to pay it back. That's a loan, you just don't like calling it that because you don't have an answer.
No, it isn't. You don't have to pay it back - if you don't earn enough to pay it back it disappears after 25 years.
The amount you pay depends on what you earn, not what you "owe".
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
What previous accounts do I have which have been banned, please?
Much more important than what the markets do today is what they do next week after the analysts have had the weekend to absorb and work through all the detail. If they fall again, then the government is in serious trouble.
Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.
Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?
Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
No.
And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale: This is back to the Barber years.
Yeah because the UK economy in 2022 is the same as it was in 1972, complete with vast union dominated coal mining areas, a huge subsidized car industry and a chinless wonder filled pint sized capital markets sector...
FFS, what a joke.
I have no idea what you're trying to say, but TBF that isn't unusual given your longstanding lack of coherence.
Unfunded tax cuts at times of high inflation, in this funny place called the real world that most of us inhabit, tend to be rather unfortunate in their effects.
Particularly when the state has over-geared its balance sheet on unproductive assets, like, say, the banking sector.
And intentionally incentivised a lot of people to using personal service companies in the near future. That is going to cost HMRC way more than the £1.1bn they estimate it to cost next year....
I registered mine just at the right moment, didn't I?
If I get a part-time job on top of the tutoring, I'm laughing.
They already don't have the resources to go after anything other than pure-vanilla cases. With the "we're abolishing this rule in April" I wouldn't be surprised if they now drop whatever things they were looking at and redeploy their minimal resources into other areas.
The taxman can only pursue the taxes government want them to pursue with the resources given by government...
Summers: “Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
If this turns out at badly as many of us expect, what happens to Truss? Surely an election follows quickly, but I’m really feeling confident with current situation
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
What previous accounts do I have which have been banned, please?
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Ah, I see where you're going wrong logically.
This is not about "giving money back", it's about taking less money. To give money to non-taxpayers, you need to beat up the tenth man.
LOL. You don't have to beat up the tenth man. You have to take a slightly higher rate of income tax from the tenth man.
If this turns out at badly as many of us expect, what happens to Truss? Surely an election follows quickly, but I’m really feeling confident with current situation
No election imminent. It'll be 2024. We've got a year and a half of this nonsense to go.
Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys
At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.
Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
This is at least the fifth account you've had, so you're projecting as usual
What previous accounts do I have which have been banned, please?
I wonder if Tom Scholar is sitting at home thinking "Thank fuck I am not in charge right now..."
To reap what he has sown?
His policies led to this. His policies led to recession. His policies led to gargantuan debt.
🤣 "his policies". Public service announcement, Conservative politicians not civil servants, have been in charge of decision making on the economy in this country since 2010.
Summers: “It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current path is maintained…This is simply not a moment for the kind of naïve, wishful thinking, supply-side economics that is being pursued in Britain.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1573324909329129474
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
Johnson was crap.
Liz is worse.
Johnson was depressing.
Truss is worrying.
Worrying because it might work?
Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
On that question, I now think she’s more likely than not to be re-elected. The U.K. economy is robust enough that she can spaff billions up the wall for a few years to help her win and point to (undoubtedly) - bit of a growth boost. It’s just the wrong policy.
I am not sure. The responses from Welsh RedWallers was less than positive this lunchtime.
Are we sure that we will get the promised growth with the backdrop of inflation, mortgage rate hikes, a European War, fluctuating energy prices, a wage- price spiral and an unstable pound?
I think you’ll get a lot of “better than our peers” guff. And it might be, for a while
Btw - remember we haven’t yet loaded a 1/3 defence budget increase into the budget projections, on top of all this… Something big is going to give on spending.
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
Johnson was crap.
Liz is worse.
Johnson was depressing.
Truss is worrying.
Worrying because it might work?
Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
On that question, I now think she’s more likely than not to be re-elected. The U.K. economy is robust enough that she can spaff billions up the wall for a few years to help her win and point to (undoubtedly) - bit of a growth boost. It’s just the wrong policy.
I am not sure. The responses from Welsh RedWallers was less than positive this lunchtime.
Are we sure that we will get the promised growth with the backdrop of inflation, mortgage rate hikes, a European War, fluctuating energy prices, a wage- price spiral and an unstable pound?
I think you’ll get a lot of “better than our peers” guff. And it might be, for a while
Btw - remember we haven’t yet loaded a 1/3 defence budget increase into the budget projections, on top of all this… Something big is going to give on spending.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
It's been a while since I did my physics PhD, but it certainly doesn't look like a genuine paper. A lot of it simply doesn't make sense. Take, for example, the statement, "It is a completely black body that does not emit and absorbs all the radiation falling on it.".
1) How could they know? How could they possibly have measured the emission and absorption of radiation of all wavelengths by this object? 2) A body that absorbs radiation but doesn't emit radiation is thermodynamically impossible. It would attain an infinite temperature. In fact, it is relatively easily provable that the absorption and emission coefficients of a body are the same for a particular wavelength. 3) Indeed a perfectly black body is, by definition, a perfect emitter as well as a perfect absorber. (Note that black bodies in the scientific sense don't have to actually appear black - the sun is pretty close to being a black body.)
This is either a hoax, or the author has lost his marbles.
Very difficult now for ministers to argue that giving doctors, teachers, nurses and police officers a bigger pay rise would be inflationary, while giving those earning £150,000+ a huge income tax cut.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
Simultaneously seeing the same thing through telescopes 200km apart rules out insects. You would hope hundreds of other paired telescopes are being set up to see if results are duplicated.
It is a very short and sweet paper but why would it not be. Fuck me these things exist is a simple but important message.
Summers: “Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
Be afraid. Summers' views carry a lot of weight in the markets. He is probably the most respected commentator in international macro. He's not always right, but he usually is.
Much more important than what the markets do today is what they do next week after the analysts have had the weekend to absorb and work through all the detail. If they fall again, then the government is in serious trouble.
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
Johnson was crap.
Liz is worse.
Johnson was depressing.
Truss is worrying.
Worrying because it might work?
Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
On that question, I now think she’s more likely than not to be re-elected. The U.K. economy is robust enough that she can spaff billions up the wall for a few years to help her win and point to (undoubtedly) - bit of a growth boost. It’s just the wrong policy.
I am not sure. The responses from Welsh RedWallers was less than positive this lunchtime.
Are we sure that we will get the promised growth with the backdrop of inflation, mortgage rate hikes, a European War, fluctuating energy prices, a wage- price spiral and an unstable pound?
I think you’ll get a lot of “better than our peers” guff. And it might be, for a while
Btw - remember we haven’t yet loaded a 1/3 defence budget increase into the budget projections, on top of all this… Something big is going to give on spending.
Thanks, I had momentarily overlooked the defence budget increase.
Enjoy those potholes and your once monthly bin collections.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.
Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.
And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."
Sheer gibberish.
Economics involves uncertainty, anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest.
I believe we are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve and have given my argument as to why.
Do I "know" that for certain? No, its impossible to do so. But we have IMHO very good evidence to demonstrate that.
Nobody here who disagrees can possibly "know" for certain that we aren't to the right of the peak either. All we can do is make an educated guess and hope we're right.
I worked on some 60 fiscal events over 31 years. I can't remember any generating as strong a market reaction as to today's. The £ is currently down over 3% v $, 1.8% v € and 2.5% v ¥. And the cost of borrowing up 40bp at short end and 20bp at long end. #justsayinghttps://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1564621032396292099
Summers: “It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current path is maintained…This is simply not a moment for the kind of naïve, wishful thinking, supply-side economics that is being pursued in Britain.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1573324909329129474
As I have set out at length, I think this policy is silly. However I’m not sure the views of a former Democrat Treasury Secretary are that unbiased when considered a nakedly conservative policy.
He shows his idiocy by thinking Brexit was about macro-economics, for a start.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Yes taxes are too high still on the young and low earners especially, I completely agree with that, but taxes are lower on them with these announcements than they were before hand, and for that I completely applaud today's announcements.
People are still being screwed over, taxes are still too high, and I'd like them to be cut further. But a step in the right direction is still a step in the right direction.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
It's been a while since I did my physics PhD, but it certainly doesn't look like a genuine paper. A lot of it simply doesn't make sense. Take, for example, the statement, "It is a completely black body that does not emit and absorbs all the radiation falling on it.".
1) How could they know? How could they possibly have measured the emission and absorption of radiation of all wavelengths by this object? 2) A body that absorbs radiation but doesn't emit radiation is thermodynamically impossible. It would attain an infinite temperature. In fact, it is relatively easily provable that the absorption and emission coefficients of a body are the same for a particular wavelength. 3) Indeed a perfectly black body is, by definition, a perfect emitter as well as a perfect absorber. (Note that black bodies in the scientific sense don't have to actually appear black - the sun is pretty close to being a black body.)
This is either a hoax, or the author has lost his marbles.
Can something not be blacker than its surroundings? i.e spotting the absence of light in that part of the sky.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.
Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.
And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."
Sheer gibberish.
Economics involves uncertainty, anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest.
I believe we are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve and have given my argument as to why.
Do I "know" that for certain? No, its impossible to do so. But we have IMHO very good evidence to demonstrate that.
Nobody here who disagrees can possibly "know" for certain that we aren't to the right of the peak either. All we can do is make an educated guess and hope we're right.
And neither do you!
You are Arthur Laffer's last flag flyer. It's bollocks!
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
This, like everything George Eaton does, is dubious. He's assuming everyone earning 150k has already paid off their student loan, everyone on 50k hasn't, and calling it tax. Even if you believe modern student loans are effectively a graduate tax, this analysis is childishly simplistic.
I left uni 10 years ago and am nowhere near paying off my original loan.
You're not supposed to "pay it off" unless you are very well paid. A student "loan" is not a debt.
So? It’s still a significant tax on graduate incomes and fiscal drag will make it worse.
Timothy Ash @tashecon · 45m Near universal response from the people in the City I talk to is that this is a pretty disastrous “special fiscal operation” by Kwasi Kwateng. The mood is grim around all things to do with the UK.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
It's been a while since I did my physics PhD, but it certainly doesn't look like a genuine paper. A lot of it simply doesn't make sense. Take, for example, the statement, "It is a completely black body that does not emit and absorbs all the radiation falling on it.".
1) How could they know? How could they possibly have measured the emission and absorption of radiation of all wavelengths by this object? 2) A body that absorbs radiation but doesn't emit radiation is thermodynamically impossible. It would attain an infinite temperature. In fact, it is relatively easily provable that the absorption and emission coefficients of a body are the same for a particular wavelength. 3) Indeed a perfectly black body is, by definition, a perfect emitter as well as a perfect absorber. (Note that black bodies in the scientific sense don't have to actually appear black - the sun is pretty close to being a black body.)
This is either a hoax, or the author has lost his marbles.
Can something not be blacker than its surroundings? i.e spotting the absence of light in that part of the sky.
Isn't that how vision works? If everything was the same brightness we wouldn't be able to differentiate.
I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.
And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.
Hardly stimulating the economy is it?
I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.
You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.
I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.
Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010
(I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.
Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?
Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
Perhaps we could give people at the bottom more than a few pennies by not giving back quite as many bags of pennies to the landed few at the top.
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Yes taxes are too high still on the young and low earners especially, I completely agree with that, but taxes are lower on them with these announcements than they were before hand, and for that I completely applaud today's announcements.
People are still being screwed over, taxes are still too high, and I'd like them to be cut further. But a step in the right direction is still a step in the right direction.
Indeed.
I think those who are predicting public sector spending cuts are probably right though. Not now, maybe, but some time.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
Simultaneously seeing the same thing through telescopes 200km apart rules out insects. You would hope hundreds of other paired telescopes are being set up to see if results are duplicated.
It is a very short and sweet paper but why would it not be. Fuck me these things exist is a simple but important message.
Of course it's a hoax.
Exactly the same bizarre phenomena (it was end-times style visions that were de rigeur back then) were sighted all over the Arab Spring protests. And you can see much the same technology being used to bring Tupac or MJ back in concerts.
This tells us nothing about alien's preoccupations, and everything about the preoccupations of the people putting on the lightshow.
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
I wonder if Tom Scholar is sitting at home thinking "Thank fuck I am not in charge right now..."
To reap what he has sown?
His policies led to this. His policies led to recession. His policies led to gargantuan debt.
🤣 "his policies". Public service announcement, Conservative politicians not civil servants, have been in charge of decision making on the economy in this country since 2010.
There's been a broad mainstream consensus shared by all parties since about 2000. If Truss doesn't get spooked by the reaction to this mini-budget then she could represent a decisive break from that orthodoxy.
LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.
Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.
The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.
I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.
If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
I invest primarily in the US markets, they do not grow our economy
Wrong.
If you get dividends from American firms then that brings wealth into this country from abroad and aids out current account deficit.
Our long term deficit on that has led to us making significant payments overseas now when prior to 1997 we got payments into this country.
US companies pay little in the way of dividends and even if they do, if chb is investing surplus money the likelihood is he is buying further shares with them.
In the long term shares are strongly linked to a risk averse expectation of the time value of money of future dividends, so shares that don't pay many dividends today are expected to in the future. And if surplus money is reinvested then unless CHB goes abroad himself with his capital that means further future dividends into this country when that happens in the future.
Until 1997 we got on aggregate significant net payments into this country as we owned more abroad than abroad owned here. Today that figure is reversed, as "foreign investment" has been trumpeted for years while investing abroad hasn't been, meaning that just to stand still now we are effectively paying rents abroad every single year.
Savings are not a bad thing and are necessary to correct the current account deficit.
The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine
“Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”
What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
Cracking plot twist
The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine
I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?
Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)
I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?
(Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read
I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists
Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH
Much faster than even the fastest ICBM
And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….
We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)
I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.
It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.
I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others
However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible
What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
I know, but I just wanted to scotch the idea these professors do not exist. They do, and this is a legitimate paper
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
It's been a while since I did my physics PhD, but it certainly doesn't look like a genuine paper. A lot of it simply doesn't make sense. Take, for example, the statement, "It is a completely black body that does not emit and absorbs all the radiation falling on it.".
1) How could they know? How could they possibly have measured the emission and absorption of radiation of all wavelengths by this object? 2) A body that absorbs radiation but doesn't emit radiation is thermodynamically impossible. It would attain an infinite temperature. In fact, it is relatively easily provable that the absorption and emission coefficients of a body are the same for a particular wavelength. 3) Indeed a perfectly black body is, by definition, a perfect emitter as well as a perfect absorber. (Note that black bodies in the scientific sense don't have to actually appear black - the sun is pretty close to being a black body.)
This is either a hoax, or the author has lost his marbles.
Or is looking for gullible internet folk to have a laugh with.
I genuinely struggle to see how, even Tory-friendly press, will spin this. The narrative has already run away from them. Tentative prediction: instead of a 'Truss bounce', within a week, she will bottom out below where Johnson was in the polls. ~AA
Much more important than what the markets do today is what they do next week after the analysts have had the weekend to absorb and work through all the detail. If they fall again, then the government is in serious trouble.
Comments
Whose stupid idea was it to focus on gas because it was quicker ahead of nuclear and tidal again?
Like when I'm asked if I prefer real ale, and I say 'I don't know, I've never tried a fake one.'
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=12H
Was it an obscure craft beer. A dry hopped IPA brewed by a small brewery in the Home Counties or was it a regular beer ?
I’ve paid more than that a pint in the north east but only for obscure craft beers.
Are we sure that we will get the promised growth with the backdrop of inflation, mortgage rate hikes, a European War, fluctuating energy prices, a wage- price spiral and an unstable pound?
You have been a champion for people fucked by marginal tax rates - something I applaud you for. Yet here you are applauding a budget which does brutal marginal tax rates to people on very modest incomes https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1573249403795939328
Wonderful 🫣
You buy a glass and some tickets and exchange them for different beers round the room
This is not about "giving money back", it's about taking less money. To give money to non-taxpayers, you need to beat up the tenth man.
https://twitter.com/RDuke4120/status/1573315541456293888
1.69 to 1.67 AUD
1.1 to 1.075 Swiss francs
91 to 89 Indian rupees.
69 to 62 Russian rubles...
It's not a USD story today.
Sunak did that, not Truss.
GBP in the shitter.
I’m reconsidering my opinions on a US trade deal. Maybe we could all get jobs working from home, for US companies paid in USD?
http://www.upfrontbrewing.com/shop/volodymyr-100-abv
https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1573319566872150020
https://twitter.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1573307710023647232
If I get a part-time job on top of the tutoring, I'm laughing.
It seems unlikely they would be fooled by insects. So either they are seeing something genuinely mysterious, or this is a very elaborate hoax by Ukrainian scientists - or the war has sent them mad, likesay
2 year 🔼38 basis points
5 year 🔼47 basis points
10 year 🔼20 basis points
30 year 🔼23 basis points
Be in no doubt - there's are LARGE daily moves by historic standards #riskpremium
Jacob Rees-Mogg is still in a senior Government post, however.
And don't worry, you haven't massively overshot. It is just that Tony Blair looks 105....
The problem is that in this country things work quietly and calmly because we believe that everything operates on a basis of fairness, honesty, transparency and respect for the rules.
If that belief breaks down -- and the Conservatives are pushing our trust to the limits - then I fear that we may stop being such a decent society. I obey the law, not because it has been made by Parliament with an 80 vote Conservative majority, but because the law is reasonable - or at least because I believe most of my fellow-citizens think that it is.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/reactions/CorrectHorseBattery - banned
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/reactions/CorrectHorseBattery2 - banned
I'm pretty sure you have made this claim before and been unable to answer it when challenged.
The amount you pay depends on what you earn, not what you "owe".
It's a capped graduate tax.
Summers: “Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
The government doesn’t give a flying fuck.
Surely most people would consider it a core government/police/security services responsibility to find & punish the fuckers openly defrauding the British public in this way?
Once upon a time you’d be bloody hung for doing this kind of shit.
It’s not that difficult to track them down and/or stop them using our infrastructure.
The government’s given up governing.
Seriously, I have no idea.
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1573324426476933120
The taxman can only pursue the taxes government want them to pursue with the resources given by government...
^ A tweet with 4 graphs of the markets' reactions to today's (non)budget
His policies led to this. His policies led to recession. His policies led to gargantuan debt.
You can also go back and buy more vouchers too.
Durham have theirs in August.
I’ve been a few times.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1573324909329129474
Btw - remember we haven’t yet loaded a 1/3 defence budget increase into the budget projections, on top of all this… Something big is going to give on spending.
https://twitter.com/juliansmithuk/status/1573319566872150020?s=21&t=MKhX4_r3lljbyxoKR81vhQ
1) How could they know? How could they possibly have measured the emission and absorption of radiation of all wavelengths by this object?
2) A body that absorbs radiation but doesn't emit radiation is thermodynamically impossible. It would attain an infinite temperature. In fact, it is relatively easily provable that the absorption and emission coefficients of a body are the same for a particular wavelength.
3) Indeed a perfectly black body is, by definition, a perfect emitter as well as a perfect absorber. (Note that black bodies in the scientific sense don't have to actually appear black - the sun is pretty close to being a black body.)
This is either a hoax, or the author has lost his marbles.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1573242354382807040
The same applies, of course, to pumping the housing market full of rocket fuel by cutting stamp duty.
You don't get to whine about inflationary this and inflationary that when you play these kinds of games, full stop.
Oh, and look at this:
Worth repeating. Take all the tax changes coming in over next few years and:
If your income is < £155k, you lose
If your income is > £155k you win
If your income > £1m you gain more than £40,000
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573307710023647232
Why am I not surprised?
It is a very short and sweet paper but why would it not be. Fuck me these things exist is a simple but important message.
That’s a more than 3% fall today.
And still dropping.
This is… unnerving. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573323911319650305/photo/1
Enjoy those potholes and your once monthly bin collections.
I believe we are to the right of the peak of the Laffer Curve and have given my argument as to why.
Do I "know" that for certain? No, its impossible to do so. But we have IMHO very good evidence to demonstrate that.
Nobody here who disagrees can possibly "know" for certain that we aren't to the right of the peak either. All we can do is make an educated guess and hope we're right.
He shows his idiocy by thinking Brexit was about macro-economics, for a start.
People are still being screwed over, taxes are still too high, and I'd like them to be cut further. But a step in the right direction is still a step in the right direction.
You are Arthur Laffer's last flag flyer. It's bollocks!
@tashecon
·
45m
Near universal response from the people in the City I talk to is that this is a pretty disastrous “special fiscal operation” by Kwasi Kwateng. The mood is grim around all things to do with the UK.
https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1573316623422951424
Indeed.
I think those who are predicting public sector spending cuts are probably right though. Not now, maybe, but some time.
Exactly the same bizarre phenomena (it was end-times style visions that were de rigeur back then) were sighted all over the Arab Spring protests. And you can see much the same technology being used to bring Tupac or MJ back in concerts.
This tells us nothing about alien's preoccupations, and everything about the preoccupations of the people putting on the lightshow.
You’ve revived it.
Adding to the list.
Until 1997 we got on aggregate significant net payments into this country as we owned more abroad than abroad owned here. Today that figure is reversed, as "foreign investment" has been trumpeted for years while investing abroad hasn't been, meaning that just to stand still now we are effectively paying rents abroad every single year.
Savings are not a bad thing and are necessary to correct the current account deficit.
I genuinely struggle to see how, even Tory-friendly press, will spin this. The narrative has already run away from them. Tentative prediction: instead of a 'Truss bounce', within a week, she will bottom out below where Johnson was in the polls. ~AA
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1573254511237496832
Before 0930, the UK arguably had one extremely difficult problem; inflation.
After *that* “fiscal event” it now has two. A complete collapse in confidence.
That is what is at the heart of the phenomenal sell-off of the £ and UK gilts (govt debt you can buy).
https://twitter.com/VFritzNews/status/1573271773965320192