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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,357
    Another interesting point... I think this budget is going to shore up Truss' credentials with Tories vs. Boris Johnson.
    Yes the fiscally dry Tories won't like it... but they can hardly look at Boris Johnson and think he's the answer surely?
    Boris Johnson has been outflanked here.
  • Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    Define 'work'.
    It will make some rich people appreciatively richer.
    It will hit the pound.
    It will lead to an increase in inflation.
    It will leave us with the social care problem unresolved.
    Maybe the IR35 changes will encourage small enterprises.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,884
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    "It might work" in the same way that a stopped clock tells the correct time twice a day.
    If this is one of those times, she'll still get the credit.
    If the ratio of success is a few seconds twice in 24 hours- no.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,040

    TOPPING said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not held first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this needs to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    The red wall is a very diverse area. Plenty of parts where most property is over 125 grand, plenty earning good income, plenty IR35s, plenty paying basic rate income tax, plenty reliant on businesses succeeding.
    You dont have to be the biggest winner to be a winner.
    The red wall are the red wall because for decades they have watched times of growth benefit the south east and not reach them.

    The vox popping on budget picking up so much “rich people benefitting, not us” is politically toxic. Maybe the crisis help to households announcement should have been kept apart from the “big handouts to the rich” announcement as some kudos may have been swamped here.
    The Great Brexit Betrayal has begun. The Red Wall were seduced with the promise of better services, a better NHS. Levelling Up.

    To be fair to Johnson, he understood this and at least paid lip service to it.

    That's all gone, hasn't it? The lunatics have taken over the asylum, implementing policies that have zero mandate from the country at large but which get the juices of Tory types flooding down their wizened, atrophied flanks.

    It's the cynicism that gets me. Even though I knew it would come sooner or later, it was inevitable, it's the brazen Trumpite shamelessness of the whole endeavour that really galls.

    If a new Labour leader had been parachuted in mid-term and was half as radical, can you imagine the howls of outrage from the client press, demanding an election? Screaming about illegitimacy?
    The Tories have basically implied the Red Wall is gone already. We must never let them con the North ever again.
    Labours problems aren't solved in the "north". What has labour really got to say to the north? The north didn't want Corbyn and his promises of more public spending. It is more like a cultural problem with the 'left behind' that just continues. I would guess that the "red wall" just splits between labour and conservative. It would be a fertile ground for a new populist party.

    That's not strictly true. I know an awful lot of red wallers who switched Lab to Con very specifically because they supported more public spending. The charge being Labour hadn't done it, leaving the EU, the oven-ready plan and levelling-up as the solution.
    Switch Lab => Con in the hope of more public spending? Not to say I am sceptical but I am sceptical. What was that definition of insanity again?

    Brexit I'm all over that for the Red Wall and I get it.

    Levelling up was (I say "was" because I presume they have jettisoned it now) the critical Cons policy of its age. It will be a shame (and a disaster electorally) if they don't deliver.
    For many red wallers, leaving the EU and then voting Tory was very directly to get direct economic benefits. Labour government hadn't invested enough, Labour since the Danelaw councils didn't have the money or the intelligence to care, and suddenly they're told its all about the EU. Leave and we keep our money, get rid of the migrants, choose to spend our own money etc etc.

    Why do you think "levelling up" then became "build back better" and then "freeports" and now "special economic zones". With a few exceptions, the cash promised hasn't arrived. So keep kicking the can down the road with a new name and a new threat that the opposition would scrap LU / BBB / FP / SEZ so keep backing the Tories if you want the shiny shiny.
    Oh they certainly voted Cons (and Brexit) to get direct economic benefits. But I don't think they see that as "more public spending".
  • Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    I just consider voting Tory an act of charity for my grandparents at this point. Not like Labour would be any better for me anyway.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,068

    IshmaelZ said:

    MISTY said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Nail. Head.
    Dim witted triumphalism seems the order of the day on the right today. I hate to pry or speculate about the triumphalists but none of them give off a 45% top rate vibe, so perhaps the shafting of the poor rather than enrichment of the rich is being celebrated.

    This is a fucking disaster.
    How does cutting the tax of the poor by 2.25% so they keep more of their own income "shaft" them?
    What's the logic behind the removal of the 45% band?

    Do you think 45% taxpayers are sitting there saying to themselves "well I could do more to grow the economy but what's the point if I am taxed at 45%... but if I only pay 40% on the extra I'll earn, I'm in"?
    There is no economic or political logic to it.

    If you wanted to bump growth through aggregate-demand boosting tax cuts you would focus them on those who might do something with that extra wiggle room rather than just squirrel it away. You'd also probably think a lot about supply-side reforms when the Bank of England is actively trying to protect the £.

    So it's the same as the fracking argument. If you cared about the energy market, you would spend zero *energy* worrying about fracking in the UK and start seriously thinking about the important stuff.

    So why fracking or headline tax cuts for the wealthy? Because it gets the likes of Barty quite excited and those are the types of people who elected Miss Truss. Long-term politics though? Well it's just dreadfully stupid.


    Well on Benpointer's point - yes. For a significant proportion of high earners, the amount they earn is discretionary. If you remive a disincentuve to earn more, more will be earned.
    Even at my level this holds true. I work 4 and a half days a week. I'm not going to go up to five days a week because doing so would push me into the 40% tax bracket.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Leon said:

    The Ukrainian UFO paper takes me back to the infamous UFO footage filmed in Beaver, Utah


    https://971zht.iheart.com/content/2019-01-25-recently-released-ufo-footage-filmed-near-beaver-utah-video/

    If this footage legit shows a UFO then it’s been estimated the “craft” is flying at 12,000 mph. Extremely fast

    But the Ukrainian astronomers are seeing craft flying at 33,000 mph

    Looks like an insect really close to the camera.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,575
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
    If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.

    By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
    Well you're wrong. I want government to work whoever is in power, and if it does I'd have no particular concerns about her being reelected.

    Worrying over whether it will be effective is not confined to Truss haters. Other than her adoration of Rees-Mogg I'm unfussed by Truss.
  • Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
    Positive cases are certainly desirable, but not essential. Many governments get elected that way.
    Really? When was the last one? Certainly Blair in 1997 had a positive case. I don't remember 1979.
    I am not convinced that 'Things can only get better' is a rousingly positive case. It may be factually true and it may have chimed with the electorate so job done but not what I would call inspiring.
  • Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukrainian UFO paper takes me back to the infamous UFO footage filmed in Beaver, Utah


    https://971zht.iheart.com/content/2019-01-25-recently-released-ufo-footage-filmed-near-beaver-utah-video/

    If this footage legit shows a UFO then it’s been estimated the “craft” is flying at 12,000 mph. Extremely fast

    But the Ukrainian astronomers are seeing craft flying at 33,000 mph

    Even if you could do that inside an atmosphere (which I doubt, because you cannae change the laws of physics, no matter how advanced your technology) why would you want to? You wouldn’t see anything down here. For transit you’d go high and orbital.
    The craft observed in Ukraine are supposedly flying a few miles above the earth

    Are you hoping Klaatu will intevene at 2 seconds to annihilatory midnight?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I don't hate Liz Truss. She is not a venal, grifting, fraud like Boris Johnson. However, I just do not see how borrowing billions and billions of pounds to make rich people richer at a time when there is no slack in the economy, interest rates are going up and inflation is biting hard will make this a better a country in which to live. All I see this ending up with are massive, unprecedented cuts in the public services that most people in the UK rely on. I really hope I am wrong.

    You are probably right. Will anybody notice? Services are already sh*te.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    Nah gonna buy crypto, guaranteed get rich quick scheme
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403
    edited September 2022
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MISTY said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Nail. Head.
    Dim witted triumphalism seems the order of the day on the right today. I hate to pry or speculate about the triumphalists but none of them give off a 45% top rate vibe, so perhaps the shafting of the poor rather than enrichment of the rich is being celebrated.

    This is a fucking disaster.
    How does cutting the tax of the poor by 2.25% so they keep more of their own income "shaft" them?
    What's the logic behind the removal of the 45% band?

    Do you think 45% taxpayers are sitting there saying to themselves "well I could do more to grow the economy but what's the point if I am taxed at 45%... but if I only pay 40% on the extra I'll earn, I'm in"?
    There is no economic or political logic to it.

    If you wanted to bump growth through aggregate-demand boosting tax cuts you would focus them on those who might do something with that extra wiggle room rather than just squirrel it away. You'd also probably think a lot about supply-side reforms when the Bank of England is actively trying to protect the £.

    So it's the same as the fracking argument. If you cared about the energy market, you would spend zero *energy* worrying about fracking in the UK and start seriously thinking about the important stuff.

    So why fracking or headline tax cuts for the wealthy? Because it gets the likes of Barty quite excited and those are the types of people who elected Miss Truss. Long-term politics though? Well it's just dreadfully stupid.


    Well on Benpointer's point - yes. For a significant proportion of high earners, the amount they earn is discretionary. If you remive a disincentuve to earn more, more will be earned.
    Even at my level this holds true. I work 4 and a half days a week. I'm not going to go up to five days a week because doing so would push me into the 40% tax bracket.
    You know it's only a 10% tax rise on the bit over 52k? as your NI drops ?
  • CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 2,757
    edited September 2022

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970

    IshmaelZ said:

    MISTY said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Nail. Head.
    Dim witted triumphalism seems the order of the day on the right today. I hate to pry or speculate about the triumphalists but none of them give off a 45% top rate vibe, so perhaps the shafting of the poor rather than enrichment of the rich is being celebrated.

    This is a fucking disaster.
    Indeed. The general majority of PB has never seemed to look less interested in, or actually particularly to care about, the broad majority, or average, of the country.
    Having seen in close up the nasty underbelly of this country after the Brexit vote no one should worry about the sensibilities of the 'Red Wallers'. Their nasty prejudices have caused irreparable damage to all of us and if the cost to them is to watch this crap Tory government give them a life of penury it'll be well deserved

  • ping said:

    £/$ just touched 1.0995

    Ouch. Pity the poor economic forecaster. At this rate Cable will hit my Q4 forecast by the end of Q3. 🤣
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    If you're wages are going up by inflation, and your tax rate is lower, then you're better off not worse off.

    Having your tax rate go up and inflation up OTOH as Sunak wanted is a horrible double whammy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    Today's budget was a giant "fuck you" to the Red Wall, who voted this lot in. They're being rewarded with tax cuts for the rich.

    And coming soon, austerity 2.0.

    It is time to get the Tories out.

    Still no positive case for Labour, then?
    Positive cases are certainly desirable, but not essential. Many governments get elected that way.
    Really? When was the last one? Certainly Blair in 1997 had a positive case. I don't remember 1979.
    I am not convinced that 'Things can only get better' is a rousingly positive case. It may be factually true and it may have chimed with the electorate so job done but not what I would call inspiring.
    Granted, but there were positive policy proposals which were worth supporting. It wasn't all "the Tories are shit".
  • Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    The correct response to the spiraling price of beer is to restrict brewing and give the wealthiest drinkers a lot more money to spend on booze. Cf. the housing crisis
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    Nah gonna buy crypto, guaranteed get rich quick scheme
    It's really not.
  • ping said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    They’re almost certainly network engineers.

    Every single network engineer I’ve ever met (3) has been a middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    The sample size is enough for me to make firm assumptions about every middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    Network engineer. Almost certainly.
    Possibly software engineer too
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,236
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
    If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.

    By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
    Fair enough. You mean Truss can give tax breaks for long enough to win the next election. Not that the policy makes fiscal sense.

    Maybe you're right. I'm not a Truss hater. I just think she's dangerously incompetent, but we have different reference points.

    Hugo Chavez was elected president of Venezuela four times, somewhat democratically. Just saying.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Telegraph website looking quite funereal https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1573314377406681089/photo/1
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    Nah gonna buy crypto, guaranteed get rich quick scheme
    It's really not.
    It was a joke dude
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,967

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    I just paid £12.50 for a pint, in the bar next to my office.

    Sandpit is going to be an expensive tourist destination for Brits and Europeans this winter.
  • Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
    Cracking plot twist

    The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine

    I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?

    Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)

    I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
    Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?

    (Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
    It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read

    I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists

    Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH

    Much faster than even the fastest ICBM

    And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….

    We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)

    I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.

    It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.

    I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,630
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
    If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.

    By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
    Which is the play imo. The election. They aren't thinking 5 seconds beyond that.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
  • Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    The correct response to the spiraling price of beer is to restrict brewing and give the wealthiest drinkers a lot more money to spend on booze. Cf. the housing crisis
    The Scandinavia is crap cos of the price of a pint index is looking a bit shakey.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    According to IFS, the only group benefiting from the tax changes are those whose income is above £155k a year https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573307710023647232
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
  • MISTY said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
    No I won't.

    I'm going to drink the beer that's array in the house.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    MISTY said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
    Tory economic argument...

    If I borrow a lot of money and go and spend it, I am a lot richer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,884

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
  • carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Onshore wind is as much a solution as fracking. It would take several years to actually getting some output. So no help in the current situation (this winter)

    If you want more wind power, Dogger Bank etc is barely touched. On a timescale of years, increasing offshore wind is pretty much equal in difficulty to onshore. And the latest, most efficient turbines can’t be installed on land. Too big.
    Dogger Bank is the site of the current construction of the world's largest wind farm to date.
    Which was part of my point - it is the largest wind farm. But takes up a tiny, tiny percentage of the available resource - shallow water, with a really nice empty space around it for a long fetch for the wind.

    How many can you pile in before Dogger Bank is vaguely full?

    We can't do anything to change the generating capacity for a coupe of years - minus setup time for anything. At that distance in time, onshore and offshore are pretty much equal.
    Worth bearing in mind that the Dogger Bank is far more than just a bit of shallow water in the middle of the North Sea. It is also one of the most important spawning grounds for many of our North Sea fish species.
    The evidence from the North Sea Oil platforms (and others around the world) is that structures in the sea create an oasis for sea life, if they aren't spewing toxic chemicals.

    The actual physical footprint of the turbines is a tiny proportion of the area of the array.

    Though the fishermen might be uspet about not being able to bottom trawl through the area.
    Nope it doesn't work that way. Spawning grounds for many of the North Sea species affected need open areas of undisturbed sand or gravel. Building wind farms on them destroys the grounds as we have found to our cost in the past.

    Part of my job in the past has been organising and running site surveys for putting rigs in place including the extensive environmental assessments needed so I can, if necessary, quote you chapter and verse on this.

  • The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,106

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    If you're wages are going up by inflation, and your tax rate is lower, then you're better off not worse off.

    Having your tax rate go up and inflation up OTOH as Sunak wanted is a horrible double whammy.
    Did Kwarteng increase the tax bands in line with CPI? If not then fiscal drag will increase people's real tax rates. We have that double whammy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    ping said:

    Every single network engineer I’ve ever met (3) has been a middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    The sample size is enough for me to make firm assumptions about every middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    Network engineer. Almost certainly.

    Hmmmm

    In my team, some are white, some are middle aged, some are pot bellied, some are men, one has a pony tail.

    None of them meet all of your criteria
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969
    kinabalu said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
    If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.

    By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
    Which is the play imo. The election. They aren't thinking 5 seconds beyond that.
    Most politicians don't. But if this gets her popular enough to win the election it's not likely to collapse immediately thereafter - if it's going to fail it will fail quickly.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,630
    Scott_xP said:

    "Mr Kwarteng is not just gambling on a new strategy, he is betting the house.”

    This, from @PJTheEconomist at the IFS, is utterly brutal.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1573310225209253888/photo/1

    Using OPM to make the bet and knowing OPM will be used to settle when it loses.

    Big and ballsy, just like a City trader.

    MY ARSE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,069
    ping said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    They’re almost certainly network engineers.

    Every single network engineer I’ve ever met (3) has been a middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    The sample size is enough for me to make firm assumptions about every middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    Network engineer. Almost certainly.
    That captures the essence of PB brilliantly.
  • Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    If you're wages are going up by inflation, and your tax rate is lower, then you're better off not worse off.

    Having your tax rate go up and inflation up OTOH as Sunak wanted is a horrible double whammy.
    Did Kwarteng increase the tax bands in line with CPI? If not then fiscal drag will increase people's real tax rates. We have that double whammy.
    He should do that at the next actual Budget I completely agree.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
    False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    It's quite subtle, saying we need emergency measures to stimulate an economy in the toilet makes confidence go down, not up.

    The conclusion from today is that tough times lie ahead, so we had better batten down the hatches.
  • Scott_xP said:

    According to IFS, the only group benefiting from the tax changes are those whose income is above £155k a year https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573307710023647232

    Appreciate the IFS might have done some analysis looking at the differential impacts of the budget across the income distribution. But Barty has also run the budget through his 'tax-cutting = good' heuristic and has given it the thumbs up. Who should we believe?
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,470

    Leon said:

    The Ukrainian UFO paper takes me back to the infamous UFO footage filmed in Beaver, Utah


    https://971zht.iheart.com/content/2019-01-25-recently-released-ufo-footage-filmed-near-beaver-utah-video/

    If this footage legit shows a UFO then it’s been estimated the “craft” is flying at 12,000 mph. Extremely fast

    But the Ukrainian astronomers are seeing craft flying at 33,000 mph

    Looks like an insect really close to the camera.

    It’s been analysed over and over. Go check

    No one can conclusively say what it is. A lens glitch, a gyrfalcon, a strange craft flying at 12,000mph
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlistairM said:

    One of the few Russian attacking areas may have been turned.

    Very interesting. The Bakhmut area was one of the few areas where the Russians had been constantly trying to advance over the past weeks. If the Ukrainians are now pushing back there…
    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1573298480226893826

    Nah, the whole front consists of villages swapping back and forward. It is dynamically static.

    It looks like Ukraine has given up on eastern Bakhmut and blown the bridge across the river so Russia is still making slowwwww progress there.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969

    Scott_xP said:

    According to IFS, the only group benefiting from the tax changes are those whose income is above £155k a year https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573307710023647232

    Appreciate the IFS might have done some analysis looking at the differential impacts of the budget across the income distribution. But Barty has also run the budget through his 'tax-cutting = good' heuristic and has given it the thumbs up. Who should we believe?
    We'll find out in a year or two. Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,513

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    You're in the 45% bracket but can't afford a house ?!
    I didn't say I was in the 45% bracket
    Your paper gains are going to be eaten up by inflation then.
    If you're wages are going up by inflation, and your tax rate is lower, then you're better off not worse off.

    Having your tax rate go up and inflation up OTOH as Sunak wanted is a horrible double whammy.
    People’s wages are going up by inflation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
    No.

    And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale:

    This is back to the Barber years.
  • The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited September 2022

    The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    I would politely suggest that in that case you are unusual. Whilst there will be those who follow your course (and very sensible too) many, probably the majority will not, particularly if they have previously been having to cut back because of a tightening financial situation. As Robert Smithson was often bemoaning, the savings ratio in the UK is pretty poor compared to other countries around the world and I see no sign that that will have changed much.

    This should not be viewed as any form of endorsement of this budget, but I think your claims that most people will save or invest any extra money is a long way from reality.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
    No.

    And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale:

    This is back to the Barber years.
    Barber makes cuts.
  • TOPPING said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not held first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this needs to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    The red wall is a very diverse area. Plenty of parts where most property is over 125 grand, plenty earning good income, plenty IR35s, plenty paying basic rate income tax, plenty reliant on businesses succeeding.
    You dont have to be the biggest winner to be a winner.
    The red wall are the red wall because for decades they have watched times of growth benefit the south east and not reach them.

    The vox popping on budget picking up so much “rich people benefitting, not us” is politically toxic. Maybe the crisis help to households announcement should have been kept apart from the “big handouts to the rich” announcement as some kudos may have been swamped here.
    The Great Brexit Betrayal has begun. The Red Wall were seduced with the promise of better services, a better NHS. Levelling Up.

    To be fair to Johnson, he understood this and at least paid lip service to it.

    That's all gone, hasn't it? The lunatics have taken over the asylum, implementing policies that have zero mandate from the country at large but which get the juices of Tory types flooding down their wizened, atrophied flanks.

    It's the cynicism that gets me. Even though I knew it would come sooner or later, it was inevitable, it's the brazen Trumpite shamelessness of the whole endeavour that really galls.

    If a new Labour leader had been parachuted in mid-term and was half as radical, can you imagine the howls of outrage from the client press, demanding an election? Screaming about illegitimacy?
    The Tories have basically implied the Red Wall is gone already. We must never let them con the North ever again.
    Labours problems aren't solved in the "north". What has labour really got to say to the north? The north didn't want Corbyn and his promises of more public spending. It is more like a cultural problem with the 'left behind' that just continues. I would guess that the "red wall" just splits between labour and conservative. It would be a fertile ground for a new populist party.

    That's not strictly true. I know an awful lot of red wallers who switched Lab to Con very specifically because they supported more public spending. The charge being Labour hadn't done it, leaving the EU, the oven-ready plan and levelling-up as the solution.
    Switch Lab => Con in the hope of more public spending? Not to say I am sceptical but I am sceptical. What was that definition of insanity again?

    Brexit I'm all over that for the Red Wall and I get it.

    Levelling up was (I say "was" because I presume they have jettisoned it now) the critical Cons policy of its age. It will be a shame (and a disaster electorally) if they don't deliver.
    For many red wallers, leaving the EU and then voting Tory was very directly to get direct economic benefits. Labour government hadn't invested enough, Labour since the Danelaw councils didn't have the money or the intelligence to care, and suddenly they're told its all about the EU. Leave and we keep our money, get rid of the migrants, choose to spend our own money etc etc.

    Why do you think "levelling up" then became "build back better" and then "freeports" and now "special economic zones". With a few exceptions, the cash promised hasn't arrived. So keep kicking the can down the road with a new name and a new threat that the opposition would scrap LU / BBB / FP / SEZ so keep backing the Tories if you want the shiny shiny.
    Wasn't the FLSOJ iteration of the Tory party openly stating that red wall constituencies (among others) that voted Tory would get preferential cashmoney treatment? Now these peoples may be arseholes, but their abiding self interest indicates that they wouldn't say this unless they thought it would have an effect.
    He didn't just say it, they have in a few places done it. Very little hard £ has been spent so far. But chunks have been promised. As an example, in my old neck of the woods, levelling up dollah was promised to rich places like Yarm (Stockton South, a 2019 Tory gain) and not to 10 years shorter life-expectancy places like Stockton's Town Centre ward (Stockton North, held by Labour just with thanks to BXP splitting the Tory vote).

    Vote Tory get cash was the promise. The problem being that very little cash has appeared. Hence the constant renaming of what is coming. I think people should be very excited by the prospect of becoming a Special Economic Zone - a wholesale privatisation of services, planning and even the law. Like the wild west in America only with less shooting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,029

    The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    You make it sound like investing money, rather than hoarding it in a bank account, is a bad thing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukrainian UFO paper takes me back to the infamous UFO footage filmed in Beaver, Utah


    https://971zht.iheart.com/content/2019-01-25-recently-released-ufo-footage-filmed-near-beaver-utah-video/

    If this footage legit shows a UFO then it’s been estimated the “craft” is flying at 12,000 mph. Extremely fast

    But the Ukrainian astronomers are seeing craft flying at 33,000 mph

    Looks like an insect really close to the camera.

    It’s been analysed over and over. Go check

    No one can conclusively say what it is. A lens glitch, a gyrfalcon, a strange craft flying at 12,000mph
    I'd bet heavily against the last one...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    STERLING LATEST: In the time it took me to drive from our Westminster studio to our HQ in W London the pound has lost another half cent against the dollar.
    Now almost bang on $1.10.
    Down 2.25% in a single day.
    And the day’s not yet over.
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573316120500633600/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
    No.

    And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale:

    This is back to the Barber years.
    Barber makes cuts.
    Well, at least he knows how to dress a hair shirt.
  • ping said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    They’re almost certainly network engineers.

    Every single network engineer I’ve ever met (3) has been a middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    The sample size is enough for me to make firm assumptions about every middle aged white man with a pot belly and a pony tail.

    Network engineer. Almost certainly.
    Possibly software engineer too
    Via eavesdropping I've concluded the group next to me works in cybersecurity, which must be why they're bunking off at 3pm.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,470

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
    Cracking plot twist

    The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine

    I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?

    Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)

    I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
    Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?

    (Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
    It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read

    I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists

    Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH

    Much faster than even the fastest ICBM

    And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….

    We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)

    I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.

    It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.

    I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
    The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others

    However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403
    edited September 2022
    MISTY said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
    I'd have thought you'd get the most economic activity boost from reducing taxes for lower and middle earners. The 45% rate rounded cost seems to be 2.2 billion, reducing the basic rate to 18.75% would have had the same cost yet been more advantageous for the economy.
    Boosting benefits would probably work even better....
  • ping said:

    £/$ just touched 1.0995

    Today's trendline makes for sobering viewing.
    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12H
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,884
    Foxy said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Can you please explain this with your workings out.

    If today's developments generate growth it would turn everything I learned in A level economics on it's head. There is nothing to say economic and political circumstances won't become more favourable for La Truss, but not on the back of this package it won't.
    I think it fairly certain to create short term growth. It is a massive injection of state funded debt into the economy. Likely to collapse into inflation and high interest rates like the Barber boom, but a short term sugar rush of growth (or at least attenuated recession) until the crash.
    I am not even sure that is true. Perhaps it partially protects us from some of the more problematic issues surrounding inflation and mortgage rate hikes, but not enough. I don't see a Barber Boom, perhaps a whimper before the roof crashes in.
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
    No.

    And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale:

    This is back to the Barber years.

    Yeah because the UK economy in 2022 is the same as it was in 1972, complete with vast union dominated coal mining areas, a huge subsidized car industry and a chinless wonder filled puny capital markets sector...

    FFS, what a joke.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
    Cracking plot twist

    The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine

    I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?

    Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)

    I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
    Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?

    (Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
    It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read

    I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists

    Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH

    Much faster than even the fastest ICBM

    And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….

    We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)

    I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.

    It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.

    I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
    The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others

    However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible

    What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the top rate of income tax slashed, caps on bankers bonuses ended and an end to Sunak's NI rise and a cut ro corporation tax. This was an ultra capitalist, classical liberal budget from Truss and Kwarteng.

    However the biggest beneficiaries will be the rich and high earners, despite the cut in the basic rate of income tax and stamp duty cut. Rules around universal credit tightened too. I suspect it will go down better in West London and the Home counties than the redwall

    Not in this corner of West London, or a lot of other parts of London either, I suspect. London will stay Labour, even if the richer often living in London will often benefit. It's much as London and Manchester were still often centres of social conscience as well as being key engines of Victorian capitalism.

    It might save Cities of London and Westminster and some seats in Surrey though. The social democrat intellectual conscience of London is North London, West London has always been the home of London's richest and wealthiest.

    It was not a budget to save Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Stoke, West Bromwich or Burnley from going red however
    Yeah theres no ambition in those places. Everyone has a whippet and eats the dust from their flying ducks on the wall
    Of course there is ambition in the redwall but how many people in the redwall earn over £100k? How many FTSE 100 corporation HQs are based in the redwall? As they were the biggest winners from this budget.

    Even the stamp duty threshold rise does not held first time buyers in the redwall much as most didn't pay it anyway. Plus we need to hope this needs to a surge in growth and revenue not the deficit
    The red wall is a very diverse area. Plenty of parts where most property is over 125 grand, plenty earning good income, plenty IR35s, plenty paying basic rate income tax, plenty reliant on businesses succeeding.
    You dont have to be the biggest winner to be a winner.
    The red wall are the red wall because for decades they have watched times of growth benefit the south east and not reach them.

    The vox popping on budget picking up so much “rich people benefitting, not us” is politically toxic. Maybe the crisis help to households announcement should have been kept apart from the “big handouts to the rich” announcement as some kudos may have been swamped here.
    The Great Brexit Betrayal has begun. The Red Wall were seduced with the promise of better services, a better NHS. Levelling Up.

    To be fair to Johnson, he understood this and at least paid lip service to it.

    That's all gone, hasn't it? The lunatics have taken over the asylum, implementing policies that have zero mandate from the country at large but which get the juices of Tory types flooding down their wizened, atrophied flanks.

    It's the cynicism that gets me. Even though I knew it would come sooner or later, it was inevitable, it's the brazen Trumpite shamelessness of the whole endeavour that really galls.

    If a new Labour leader had been parachuted in mid-term and was half as radical, can you imagine the howls of outrage from the client press, demanding an election? Screaming about illegitimacy?
    The Tories have basically implied the Red Wall is gone already. We must never let them con the North ever again.
    Labours problems aren't solved in the "north". What has labour really got to say to the north? The north didn't want Corbyn and his promises of more public spending. It is more like a cultural problem with the 'left behind' that just continues. I would guess that the "red wall" just splits between labour and conservative. It would be a fertile ground for a new populist party.

    That's not strictly true. I know an awful lot of red wallers who switched Lab to Con very specifically because they supported more public spending. The charge being Labour hadn't done it, leaving the EU, the oven-ready plan and levelling-up as the solution.
    Switch Lab => Con in the hope of more public spending? Not to say I am sceptical but I am sceptical. What was that definition of insanity again?

    Brexit I'm all over that for the Red Wall and I get it.

    Levelling up was (I say "was" because I presume they have jettisoned it now) the critical Cons policy of its age. It will be a shame (and a disaster electorally) if they don't deliver.
    For many red wallers, leaving the EU and then voting Tory was very directly to get direct economic benefits. Labour government hadn't invested enough, Labour since the Danelaw councils didn't have the money or the intelligence to care, and suddenly they're told its all about the EU. Leave and we keep our money, get rid of the migrants, choose to spend our own money etc etc.

    Why do you think "levelling up" then became "build back better" and then "freeports" and now "special economic zones". With a few exceptions, the cash promised hasn't arrived. So keep kicking the can down the road with a new name and a new threat that the opposition would scrap LU / BBB / FP / SEZ so keep backing the Tories if you want the shiny shiny.
    Oh they certainly voted Cons (and Brexit) to get direct economic benefits. But I don't think they see that as "more public spending".
    Huh? Why do you think the bus had such an impact? Remember that the lower down the socio-economic scale you sit, the more reliant you are on public services. And contrary to the "isn't she marvellous" support of the happy few on here, out there in skid row everything is shit, and has been shit for as long as people remember.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    High borrowing to fund tax cuts never worked.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    cant believe you stumped up that much for a pint.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MISTY said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
    I'd have thought you'd get the most economic activity boost from reducing taxes for lower and middle earners. The 45% rate rounded cost seems to be 2.2 billion, reducing the basic rate to 18.75% would have had the same cost yet been more advantageous for the economy.
    Since basic rate is being used being reduced to 19% how much more special would a further 0.25% reduction be? Or did you not mean that?

    And have to taken into account in the "cost" of the tax fhang the impact if we get more immigration of well paid jobs into this country?
  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
    Spits coffee.

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    Actually gas usage has fallen over the past two decades and coal use has been almost eliminated. So you're wrong, categorically wrong. Gas use is down, not up.
    It has fallen over the last two decades, and stayed the same over the last decade. Slice it at different times to get the result you want, but it's still almost exactly what it was 12 years ago.
  • The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
    I invest primarily in the US markets, they do not grow our economy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,693

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Surrey have got to get some income to pay their enormous signing on fees! Where I was a student beer was 1/9d a pint! And even cheaper in some places.
  • Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    cant believe you stumped up that much for a pint.
    The tickets were cheap and the cricket was decent
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Utterly astonishing from Marr and every other brainless idiot in the media with the memory of a goldfish. Suddenly a return to business as usual is an enormous gamble.

    Lockdown wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Furlough wasn't a massive ideological gamble?

    Net zero by 2050 isn't a massive ideological gamble?
    No.

    And if you think this is 'business as usual,' I invite offers for this rather nice item I have for sale:

    This is back to the Barber years.

    Yeah because the UK economy in 2022 is the same as it was in 1972, complete with vast union dominated coal mining areas, a huge subsidized car industry and a chinless wonder filled pint sized capital markets sector...

    FFS, what a joke.
    I have no idea what you're trying to say, but TBF that isn't unusual given your longstanding lack of coherence.

    Unfunded tax cuts at times of high inflation, in this funny place called the real world that most of us inhabit, tend to be rather unfortunate in their effects.

    Particularly when the state has over-geared its balance sheet on unproductive assets, like, say, the banking sector.
  • Anyone here use Safari?

    I am very unpopular in my line of work for saying it's my favourite browser
  • I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    It's just demographics. If you want to cut taxes, then cut pensions and tell the elderly to pay their own health costs. To be fair to you, you advocate this, because you are properly bonkers, but it absolutely won't happen so cutting taxes means either total slash and burn for things like schools and roads or it means a debt crisis.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,776

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.

    And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."

    Sheer gibberish.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    LOL at the left wingers who are now saying that perhaps Boris wasn't so bad afterall, now that a PM doing Brownite tax and spend policies has been replaced by a tax cutting Conservative.

    Almost as amusing as all the Remainers who objected to Theresa May's Brexit deal that effectively kept us in both the Single Market and Customs Union via the backstop being appalled at that being replaced by Boris's deal.

    Johnson was crap.

    Liz is worse.
    Johnson was depressing.

    Truss is worrying.
    Worrying because it might work?
    Why do you think it might work in the UK when it didn't in Venezuela? Surely you need some reference points for your assertions?
    I think the Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.
    I repeat the question. What makes you think "it might work" ? And what do you actually mean by work?
    If you repeat the question, I'll repeat the answer: Truss-haters are worried it might work because they are in hysterics, making ridiculous comparisons like Venezuela.

    By "work" I mean "be popular enough to get her re-elected".
    On that question, I now think she’s more likely than not to be re-elected. The U.K. economy is robust enough that she can spaff billions up the wall for a few years to help her win and point to (undoubtedly) - bit of a growth boost. It’s just the wrong policy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    cant believe you stumped up that much for a pint.
    Well, he'll be Surrey for it later.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,884
    Driver said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
    False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
    Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    It also doesn't lead to higher tax revenues necessarily, as the last few months have shown us.


  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
    Spits coffee.

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    Actually gas usage has fallen over the past two decades and coal use has been almost eliminated. So you're wrong, categorically wrong. Gas use is down, not up.
    It has fallen over the last two decades, and stayed the same over the last decade. Slice it at different times to get the result you want, but it's still almost exactly what it was 12 years ago.
    Because coal took more of the fall in recent years. But coal can't keep falling, so as wind increases now gas falls instead. 🤦‍♂️
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,693

    Anyone here use Safari?

    I am very unpopular in my line of work for saying it's my favourite browser

    I do. But only because it comes standard with Macs.
  • Driver said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
    False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
    Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
    You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,699

    Anyone here use Safari?

    I am very unpopular in my line of work for saying it's my favourite browser

    I do. But only because it comes standard with Macs.
    It rains supreme on them.
  • Anyone here use Safari?

    I am very unpopular in my line of work for saying it's my favourite browser

    I do. But only because it comes standard with Macs.
    Didn't know you were a Mac fan OKC. I love my Mac.

    Hope you are keeping well friend
  • The idea I am going to go out more because I'm getting a tax cut is for the birds.

    I am going to invest it and keep as much of it as possible, it won't be spent in the local community because that's not how reality works.

    If you invest it then investments grow the economy too. Savings are critical to economic growth too.
    I invest primarily in the US markets, they do not grow our economy
    Wrong.

    If you get dividends from American firms then that brings wealth into this country from abroad and aids out current account deficit.

    Our long term deficit on that has led to us making significant payments overseas now when prior to 1997 we got payments into this country.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Chris said:

    I am going to get a nice windfall from this budget.

    And I am going to invest it in the stock market to inflate my own wealth further.

    Hardly stimulating the economy is it?

    I am absolutely delighted the Tories have been able to fix the transport, housing and tuition fee issues that were holding you back to the point you can now talk about your own wealth instead.

    You must be delighted. I'm happy for you. Well done you.
    Unlike some, I actually care about those around me.

    I do better under the Tories, society does not. And young people don't in general either.
    Don't feel so down on yourself, society is made up of people like you. You doing better and others who work hard doing better makes society better. Its a virtuous circle.

    Pruning back the taxes that hold everyone, even those on Minimum Wage, back allows everyone who works for a living to be better off. Just like you.
    Is this the new CCHQ script? I am not voting Tory until the current lot are gone. Bring Cameron and co back and I'll consider it like I did in 2005/2010

    (I know Cameron wasn't the leader in 2005 at the GE)
    No script. I have no connection to CCHQ which is why I'm frequently critical on Tory policy when I disagree with it, like when Sunak was in charge.

    Personally I think it's fantastic that anyone working for a living, from those on Minimum Wage onwards, can now keep more of their money?

    Do you agree with that? Or would you like to tax even those on Minimum Wage by even more?
    We all rely on public services. They have to be paid for. Those on lowest incomes rely on government spending more than most. So yes, those on the minimum wage should also contribute to funding those services. Of course if the government wanted to help those people it could have raised the personal allowance but instead it targeted its giveaway at people on £150k+. Who are least likely to spend it, and who don't need the help right now.
    Taxes have been ratchetted higher and higher for twenty years. And the result is the highest tax rates for 74 years and just as Laffer predicts we have seen growth stall to anemic levels as a result.

    Putting up taxes doesn't lead to growth. The high tax experiment has failed, it's time to return to what works.
    From someone who has already admitted he doesn't know where on the so-called Laffer curve we are.

    And now claiming that we have to make a dramatic change on the basis of an assumption about what he doesn't know. And characterises that as a a "return to what works."

    Sheer gibberish.
    Do you honestly think that what we have now is working?

    Look at Sunak's utter failure to generate the wealth he expected from his high taxes. Look at the economy pitching into recession. Look at rampant inflation from BoE money printing.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    By election alert!


    Dundee Utd are also proud to announce the appointment of A. Werrity to the position of "Ball Boy".
    Respect. Never thought Werrity had it in him.
    Spits coffee.

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    Onshore wind back on too. Not in the speech, but in the notes:

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573242291992821760?s=46&t=ZzyA5syq1AyEsi-b0vYLVA

    That's fantastic news. Legalise fracking to distract the Neanderthals on the Tory backbenches, and then allow onshore wind to go ahead to rapidly reduce the amount of gas we need to burn.
    Personally I'm not a fan of onshore wind on farmland or countryside; we already have substantial reductions in gas usage to generate electricity by offshore wind.
    It's also quite funny that people think that increasing the amount of wind capacity reduces gas usage, as opposed to hard wiring it into the system.
    Except that over time as the usage of wind has gone up, the usage of gas has gone down, not the other way around.
    @Luckyguy1983 is confusing reliance on gas backup with the volume of gas usage. Which is pretty basic.
    What increasing wind capacity will do is increase the marginal cost of gas backup - but that will also increase incentives for developing storage backup, and/or additional cross border HVDC interconnects.

    Sooner or later we have to wean ourselves off gas, if only from the POV of energy security. Much more wind capacity is part of the solution, not the problem.
    I have not confused anything. Hardwiring gas into the future is a symptom of the necessity of using it to back up wind. Doubting that there will be a significant decline in gas usage is simply based on the past. Despite all the renewables we've added, UK natural gas consumption has been fairly static for around a decade.
    Actually gas usage has fallen over the past two decades and coal use has been almost eliminated. So you're wrong, categorically wrong. Gas use is down, not up.
    It has fallen over the last two decades, and stayed the same over the last decade. Slice it at different times to get the result you want, but it's still almost exactly what it was 12 years ago.
    Because coal took more of the fall in recent years. But coal can't keep falling, so as wind increases now gas falls instead. 🤦‍♂️
    We're going to get a fall in nuclear power between 2024 and 2027 btw
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969

    Driver said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
    False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
    Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
    Dunno who you're talking about, I'm still more likely to vote Labour than Tory at the next election, although less so than a month ago.
  • MISTY said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Yes, and you will do that more with the extra money you have from cutting taxes. That spending will help businesses to generate more profit, income and investment - and taxes more for schools and hospitals.

    See how this works?
    What extra money? The lower down the socio-economic scale you are, the more you are reliant on spending £ locally. But the tax cuts benefit the people at the top end of the scale. Who tend to hoard money rather than spend it.

    Meanwhile, Mr Inflation reduces everyone's spending power which reduces the amount being spend on disposable income outlets. Less money circulating at the bottom, fewer jobs.

    See how this works in reality?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,470
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    The craziest story out there, which has gone almost completely unnoticed, is the scientists who wrote a detailed paper about all the UFOs recently seen over Ukraine

    “Astronomers in Ukraine are observing UFOs "everywhere" and classifying them as Cosmics or Phantoms based on brightness. They estimate their size to be about 3 to 12 meters with speeds over 33,000 mph. For context, planes fly at 500-600 mph.”


    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1570780417049120774?s=46&t=ZtaccptfIVLDh6sIA_Jvqw


    Here is their paper. It is so mind boggling some claim it is a hoax

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

    What was that tv show about aliens who helped humanity unify after a global conflict, only it turned out the aliens had been around and helped start it secretly.
    Cracking plot twist

    The theory is the aliens are intrigued/concerned at our apparent desire to destroy ourselves, hence their interest in military sites, esp nukes. Makes sense they’d be all over Ukraine

    I also love the way that scientific paper calmly solves the problem: Where are all the good photos of UFOs now that we all have cameras?

    Our cameras can’t capture them. They fly too fast to be registered by normal cameras (or the human eye)

    I mean, if this is true (and not a hoax) this is the biggest story in human history. Just calmly sitting out there. Buried under the news of Her Majesty’s demise
    Are you fingering aliens for HM's demise?

    (Interesting preprint btw, I've only given it a very quick skim, but I'll look in more detail later.)
    It’s properly fascinating. I don’t believe it’s a hoax. Do read

    I remember when I first started ranting about UFOs on here (prompted by @moonshine) someone said: Yeah, whatever, I’ll only be interested when there are actual scientific papers about UFOs, by proper scientists

    Well, here you go. Here’s a proper scientific paper by actual boffins. Observing multiple unknown craft flying at 55,000 KPH

    Much faster than even the fastest ICBM

    And they are clustering over a war zone with a potential to go nuclear….

    We are getting quite close to Full Disclosure (unless this is a truly elaborate hoax)

    I've not read it but skimmed the document. It's just a pdf with some pretty graphics. There must be about 500 words in it, tops. Two references. Sorry but it looks Mickey Mouse. Anyone could have made it, then uploaded it.

    It hasn't been published and it's not clear where the authors are affiliated.

    I would place about 1% weighting on the credibility of that source, with current information.
    The authors are genuine Ukrainian scientists, so we can dismiss the idea the whole thing is faked by others

    However the Ukrainian scientists themselves could be faking the data, tho then we must ask why. Perhaps the war has sent them mad? Not impossible

    What is a fake Ukrainian scientist? One that's imported by the Russians?
    Here’s one of the boffins. Not fake


    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Boris-Zhilyaev
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,969
    edited September 2022

    Driver said:

    Just paid £6.95 for a pint in a zero waste pizzeria in Hackney. Clientele appears to be mostly middle aged white people with ponytails. No recession for these guys

    At the Oval I paid £8 for a pint. £8.
    Horse, I remember my first (slightly underage) pub bought pint cost me 35p for a pint of M&B Brew XI (I know, what was wrong with the water?) in 1979. That's only 13 beer inflationary years under Labour, the rest is the work of the Conservatives.

    Lucky they have reduced beer duty for us all to drown our sorrows.
    False comparison, though. Foor and drink prices at sports stadiums have always been higher than elsewhere for the same reason that fuel at motorway service stations is more expensive than elsewhere.
    Maybe it was a sports bar of the future rather than a seedy Midlands pub. Either way I didn't expect my anecdote to be taken seriously by some earnest and touchy Tory.
    You're talking to a poorly optimised AI bot Pete
    And yet you're in your third incarnation because the first two were banned.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,693

    Anyone here use Safari?

    I am very unpopular in my line of work for saying it's my favourite browser

    I do. But only because it comes standard with Macs.
    Didn't know you were a Mac fan OKC. I love my Mac.

    Hope you are keeping well friend
    I'm okay from the neck up. Cervical stenosis is giving me a lot of problems.
This discussion has been closed.