Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com
Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com
On this first day of the Truss Premiership the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance.
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In Liz We Trusst1
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Rain Stops Truss Speech - Nation Saved ...5
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I hope the pollsters are conducting new polls for the Sunday newspapers.0
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Looks like the rain's stopped!0
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The lecturn is in out, in out, and shaking it all about1
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It looks like the Tory wets are still about ...
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41% too high?0
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“She’s nearly here!” someone says, in the tone of someone declaring “Godot is coming!”.0
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Ooooh - going south of the river to show inclusivenesss. One in the eye for most black cab drivers.0
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Mike, surely there's some double counting in your thinking - if she gets removed before the election it will be because she's looking like not being PM after it anyway.1
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I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
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Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?1
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Why so bland?TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
EDIT: Konstable Savage will be on you like a tramp on chips.0 -
No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?0 -
I am surprised it is as high as that, certainly judging by opinion on hereIanB2 said:41% too high?
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She's the only PM to have tweeted a photo of her feet:TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/9931732871979622460 -
I'd have a great deal more respect if she can do a king Canute on Mama nature.0
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Lots of detours for sightseeing…0
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New broom...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/06/mark-fullbrook-named-chief-of-staff-as-truss-selects-inner-circle
...Fullbrook, who was Truss’s co-campaign director, is entering government after a long-term partnership with Crosby as a political consultant. He struck out on his own this year with a new company, Fullbrook Strategies, which has lobbied the UK government on behalf of Libya’s controversial parliament and a company that won the biggest PPE deal of the pandemic through the VIP fast-track lane.
The company has stopped its commercial activities in the last few days. But prior to that, it acted for Libya’s House of Representatives, which has twice attempted to overthrow the UN-established government of national unity in Tripoli, and Santé Global, formerly Unispace Health, which was awarded a £680m PPE contract in 2020....0 -
Bloody Google Maps…
And they’ve ended up in a cul-de-sac1 -
You'd have thought she'd have a coterie of ball boys, well oiled to pull their waterproof covers over her lectern.0
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So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration1
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Speaking better already.0
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Truss starts with a tribute to Boris and his delivery of Brexit, the Covid vaccine and standing up to Putin. Says history will see him as a very consequential PM.0
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Like me, Liz is a working class Yorkshire person, hurrah for our humble roots.HYUFD said:So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
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Your mistake Big G is you can’t say how much it will raise, it depends how it’s done - Sunak could have taken £15B he chose to take £5B.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am challenging the impression that the windfall tax will raise more than £8 billion one offMoonRabbit said:
With respect, It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government - redistribution is really important as part of the package, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The 29 billion does not come from the windfall taxMoonRabbit said:
I’ll be straight with you Big G.Big_G_NorthWales said:It seems the only response from Labour spokespersons today has been a windfall tax will pay
Will Labour or indeed anyone confirm just how much a windfall tax will raise as I believe it is around £8 billion at most and a one off
If it only costs £29B to cover the October and January jumps and the entire £29B comes from windfall tax, Ed Davey is absolutely right, it’s a freeze not Liz Truss loan.
More likely in my opinion, more than £29B needs to be poured into this, but where you and Truss are wrong, it's a matter of fairness. People are struggling at the moment. These companies have made profit that they never expected to make and therefore that redistribution is really important as part of the package. It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government.
That is where Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong.
With respect that is fake news
In the context of labour's offer it will not
Personally I don’t think £29B can be taken right now, but you need to stop avoiding the question put to you, as it’s clear to everyone you are ducking it, redistribution is really important as part of the package, not just fairness but buy in and the ability to govern, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?0 -
Improvement on yesterday, which isn’t saying a great deal.1
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Liz is going to give me tax cuts, just what we need.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?0 -
Build roads? Get to feck Truss.0
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Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?
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Action this day. neat reference.1
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If I were a Labour supporter I'd be a little worried about the possibility of Truss closing the gender gap, ie. the way Labour has been ahead with women voters since about 2005.0
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Hostages to fortune for everyone….1
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I'd far rather she was building roads than being PM.SandyRentool said:Build roads? Get to feck Truss.
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"High paying jobs"
But we will also oppose every increased wage claim from everyone.1 -
"We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"0
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10% interest rates soon!0
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They are far too bland for me.Nigelb said:
Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?1 -
Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?1
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Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.0
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Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….HYUFD said:So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
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Boris's comparing himself to Cincinnatus really takes some beating for perverse cheap schoolboy nonsense.0
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Economy, energy and NHS?
What were those top 3 issues again?0 -
Code: the NHS is not fit for purpose.
One of her top three priorities.0 -
That was a big improvement0
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That was rather good1
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Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech
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Better than yesterday but that’s a low bar.0
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She means on weekends and feast days.IshmaelZ said:Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.
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So we're not already modern and brilliant?
Who TF's fault is that?0 -
The Tories are back telling us what a wonderful speech that was, super majority for PM Truss!0
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Better out than in.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech
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That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣
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Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.
As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.
Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.
Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings0 -
Shades of MAGA.
Make us modern and brilliant. We already are (or you should think we already are) modern and brilliant. Muppet.0 -
Better than yesterday. But she could hardly be worse1
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Is Miss Trusst PM yet?0
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First pic of Liz arriving at No 10. Not going to let the rain trouble her.
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Good speech and interesting that she referenced building and spades in the ground so much. Perhaps she's planning some genuine free market reforms on planning.0
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She will DELIVER!MoonRabbit said:That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣
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Yet again she didn’t say anything. Other than yet again threaten workers rights.
“Do you have a plan Priminister?”0 -
I thought she hated redistribution?IanB2 said:
Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….HYUFD said:So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
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Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:
“Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838
Brexit...2 -
Superb speech, excellent. PM Truss will be here for the next fifty years, I for one am looking forward to the 150 seat majority she surely brings0
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Disagree.IshmaelZ said:That was rather good
She wants to create jobs - as you yourself noted we have record employment.
She wants to focus on the NHS - which the Cons have been in charge of for 12 yrs.
She wants us to be "modern and brilliant" - what does she think we are now. And why?1 -
Spades in the ground she said.kle4 said:"We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"
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Great question. I assume it’s because governments fear a “failed auction” narrative so much that they’re prepared to accept a slight premium on the interest rate.carnforth said:Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?
Anyone better informed wish to comment? There must be at least one lurker from HMT, or someone with experience in the bond market?0 -
@MoonRabbit from last thread
Thats what im waiting to see. The Truss plan and Starmer plan will probably have similar net effects in freezing but truss AIUI is for 2 years and slightly better protects lower end users whilst punishing higher end a bit more.
The key however is businesses - Davey and Starmers freeze does nothing for them, if Truss does then her plan is superior regardless of raising 4% of the cost via a windfall tax or not.
No point us all staying warm and there being no businesses left to utilise and work for
Edit - no business measures and Truss can do one on day one
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Good news for saverslondonpubman said:10% interest rates soon!
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Busted flat in Baton Rouge, headin' for the trainsIanB2 said:
Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….HYUFD said:So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Bobby thumbed a diesel down just before it rained
Took us all the way to New Orleans
I took my harpoon out of my dirty red bandanna
And was blowin' sad while Bobby sang the blues
With them windshield wipers slappin' time and
Bobby clappin' hands we finally sang up every song
That driver knew...
Written by a Merton man. Bet Liz can't top that.0 -
Quite fitting all the "riding out the storm" references in this weather.0
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Bunch of workshy grifters. Need real workers, like that JRM fellow, who works more inefficiently by making others print things out and bring it to his office, rather than do it himself or be sent it.TOPPING said:Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?
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‘Proposals’ is perhaps a tad over-stated?HYUFD said:Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.
As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.
Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.
Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings2 -
Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)
Keir Starmer 39% (–)
Liz Truss 32% (-3)
Don't Know 29% (+3)
Changes +/- 21 August
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ0 -
I can’t get over how badly she delivers a speech. Her intonation is all over the place and half the time she sounds like one of those computer text readers.0
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You need to get over JohnsonHYUFD said:Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.
As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.
Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.
Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings
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A string of easily forgettable platitudes.1
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I think Liz’s problem is that you can’t simultaneously cut taxes, fend off the energy crisis, deliver more infrastructure investment and manage the deficit.
One or two of those things need to give.0 -
Honestly I think her speechifying is adequate, but it has no personality to it is all - she's obviously trained, worked hard on her diction and delivery, and it comes across like it is super rehearsed.0
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Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)
Keir Starmer 39% (–)
Liz Truss 32% (-3)
Don't Know 29% (+3)
Changes +/- 21 August
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-4-september-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849/photo/10 -
When she said we have huge reserves of energy did she mean physically or with gas? As I have neither.0
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Working has a second meaning.TOPPING said:Get Britain working again?
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Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?Scott_xP said:Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:
“Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838
Brexit...1 -
And all those pesky EU guaranteed days annual leave.Gardenwalker said:
She means on weekends and feast days.IshmaelZ said:Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.
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BBC: First tax cut from Truss is to reverse the rise in NI.
Your regular reminder that I said on here, repeatedly at the time, that the ludicrous jobs tax would either be canned before it was implemented or reversed in short order. It was, I said, the Tory equivalent of Brown's 10p infamous tax.
Various credulous PBers, such as Big G said that it could not be reversed. It has lasted just five months. I was right. The PB Credulants were wrong.
All noted, I hope.2 -
Speech wasn't too bad. She does better when she doesn't have to stop for audience applause. So similar to Theresa I get the feeling she doesn't really "do" people. Which is unfortunate as it's the people that are going to have to vote for her in the end...1
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You need to get over Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You need to get over JohnsonHYUFD said:Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.
As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.
Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.
Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings
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WrongHYUFD said:Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)
Keir Starmer 39% (–)
Liz Truss 32% (-3)
Don't Know 29% (+3)
Changes +/- 21 August
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ
That poll was on the 4th September before the last 24 hours, not at this moment
I do not expect polls to improve before we have heard the announcements0 -
Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.williamglenn said:
Working has a second meaning.TOPPING said:Get Britain working again?
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She didn't say #1, she said holding Britain back.Cookie said:
Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?Scott_xP said:Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:
“Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838
Brexit...
Absofuckinglutely, Brexit is holding Britain back.1 -
Labour lead by 17% in the Red Wall.
Red Wall Voting Intention (4 September):
Labour 48% (+1)
Conservative 31% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (+2)
Green 5% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 21 August0 -
You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and once the eggs are broken, it's better to make the omelette than try to put them back together again.TOPPING said:
Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.williamglenn said:
Working has a second meaning.TOPPING said:Get Britain working again?
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