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Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited September 2022 in General
imagePunters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

On this first day of the Truss Premiership the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    In Liz We Trusst
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    I hope the pollsters are conducting new polls for the Sunday newspapers.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    Looks like the rain's stopped!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    The lecturn is in out, in out, and shaking it all about
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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    It looks like the Tory wets are still about ... :smile:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    JACK_W said:

    Rain Stops Truss Speech - Nation Saved ...

    No, back on, the lectern has been moved back outside
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    41% too high?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,837
    “She’s nearly here!” someone says, in the tone of someone declaring “Godot is coming!”.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Ooooh - going south of the river to show inclusivenesss. One in the eye for most black cab drivers.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,355
    Mike, surely there's some double counting in your thinking - if she gets removed before the election it will be because she's looking like not being PM after it anyway.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,161
    Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    edited September 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Why so bland?

    EDIT: Konstable Savage will be on you like a tramp on chips.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,240
    IanB2 said:

    41% too high?

    I am surprised it is as high as that, certainly judging by opinion on here
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    I'd give her 55% chance
    Sandpit said:

    What a weird route they’re taking!

    Frantic rewriting.
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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    HYUFD said:

    JACK_W said:

    Rain Stops Truss Speech - Nation Saved ...

    No, back on, the lectern has been moved back outside
    Truss Speech On - Nation Buggered
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
    She's the only PM to have tweeted a photo of her feet:

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/993173287197962246
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I'd have a great deal more respect if she can do a king Canute on Mama nature.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Lots of detours for sightseeing…
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    New broom...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/06/mark-fullbrook-named-chief-of-staff-as-truss-selects-inner-circle
    ...Fullbrook, who was Truss’s co-campaign director, is entering government after a long-term partnership with Crosby as a political consultant. He struck out on his own this year with a new company, Fullbrook Strategies, which has lobbied the UK government on behalf of Libya’s controversial parliament and a company that won the biggest PPE deal of the pandemic through the VIP fast-track lane.

    The company has stopped its commercial activities in the last few days. But prior to that, it acted for Libya’s House of Representatives, which has twice attempted to overthrow the UN-established government of national unity in Tripoli, and Santé Global, formerly Unispace Health, which was awarded a £680m PPE contract in 2020....
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    41% too high?

    Lay that rather than back Starmer imo.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    edited September 2022
    Bloody Google Maps…

    And they’ve ended up in a cul-de-sac
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,799
    You'd have thought she'd have a coterie of ball boys, well oiled to pull their waterproof covers over her lectern.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    Speaking better already.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Truss starts with a tribute to Boris and his delivery of Brexit, the Covid vaccine and standing up to Putin. Says history will see him as a very consequential PM.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Like me, Liz is a working class Yorkshire person, hurrah for our humble roots.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    It seems the only response from Labour spokespersons today has been a windfall tax will pay

    Will Labour or indeed anyone confirm just how much a windfall tax will raise as I believe it is around £8 billion at most and a one off

    I’ll be straight with you Big G.

    If it only costs £29B to cover the October and January jumps and the entire £29B comes from windfall tax, Ed Davey is absolutely right, it’s a freeze not Liz Truss loan.

    More likely in my opinion, more than £29B needs to be poured into this, but where you and Truss are wrong, it's a matter of fairness. People are struggling at the moment. These companies have made profit that they never expected to make and therefore that redistribution is really important as part of the package. It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government.

    That is where Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong.
    The 29 billion does not come from the windfall tax

    With respect that is fake news
    With respect, It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government - redistribution is really important as part of the package, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?
    I am challenging the impression that the windfall tax will raise more than £8 billion one off

    In the context of labour's offer it will not
    Your mistake Big G is you can’t say how much it will raise, it depends how it’s done - Sunak could have taken £15B he chose to take £5B.
    Personally I don’t think £29B can be taken right now, but you need to stop avoiding the question put to you, as it’s clear to everyone you are ducking it, redistribution is really important as part of the package, not just fairness but buy in and the ability to govern, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,047
    Improvement on yesterday, which isn’t saying a great deal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!
    Liz is going to give me tax cuts, just what we need.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    Build roads? Get to feck Truss.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,047
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    How do you feel about her now ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.
    How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Action this day. neat reference.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    edited September 2022
    If I were a Labour supporter I'd be a little worried about the possibility of Truss closing the gender gap, ie. the way Labour has been ahead with women voters since about 2005.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Hostages to fortune for everyone….
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    SandyRentool said:

    Build roads? Get to feck Truss.

    I'd far rather she was building roads than being PM.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    "High paying jobs"

    But we will also oppose every increased wage claim from everyone.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    edited September 2022
    "We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    10% interest rates soon!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.
    How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?
    They are far too bland for me.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Boris's comparing himself to Cincinnatus really takes some beating for perverse cheap schoolboy nonsense.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,929
    Economy, energy and NHS?
    What were those top 3 issues again?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Code: the NHS is not fit for purpose.

    One of her top three priorities.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,240
    That was a big improvement
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    That was rather good
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech :lol:
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    Better than yesterday but that’s a low bar.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    IshmaelZ said:

    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.

    She means on weekends and feast days.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    So we're not already modern and brilliant?

    Who TF's fault is that?
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    CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 2,757
    The Tories are back telling us what a wonderful speech that was, super majority for PM Truss!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech :lol:

    Better out than in.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Shades of MAGA.

    Make us modern and brilliant. We already are (or you should think we already are) modern and brilliant. Muppet.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,684
    Better than yesterday. But she could hardly be worse
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,895
    Is Miss Trusst PM yet?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Better jobs?
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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,848
    First pic of Liz arriving at No 10. Not going to let the rain trouble her.


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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    Good speech and interesting that she referenced building and spades in the ground so much. Perhaps she's planning some genuine free market reforms on planning.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,895
    MoonRabbit said:

    That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣

    She will DELIVER!
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited September 2022
    Yet again she didn’t say anything. Other than yet again threaten workers rights.

    “Do you have a plan Priminister?”
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
    I thought she hated redistribution?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,837
    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...
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    CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 2,757
    Superb speech, excellent. PM Truss will be here for the next fifty years, I for one am looking forward to the 150 seat majority she surely brings
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    IshmaelZ said:

    That was rather good

    Disagree.

    She wants to create jobs - as you yourself noted we have record employment.
    She wants to focus on the NHS - which the Cons have been in charge of for 12 yrs.
    She wants us to be "modern and brilliant" - what does she think we are now. And why?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    kle4 said:

    "We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"

    Spades in the ground she said.

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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    carnforth said:

    Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?

    Great question. I assume it’s because governments fear a “failed auction” narrative so much that they’re prepared to accept a slight premium on the interest rate.

    Anyone better informed wish to comment? There must be at least one lurker from HMT, or someone with experience in the bond market?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    londonpubman said:

    10% interest rates soon!

    Good news for savers :D
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited September 2022
    @MoonRabbit from last thread
    Thats what im waiting to see. The Truss plan and Starmer plan will probably have similar net effects in freezing but truss AIUI is for 2 years and slightly better protects lower end users whilst punishing higher end a bit more.
    The key however is businesses - Davey and Starmers freeze does nothing for them, if Truss does then her plan is superior regardless of raising 4% of the cost via a windfall tax or not.
    No point us all staying warm and there being no businesses left to utilise and work for
    Edit - no business measures and Truss can do one on day one
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
    Busted flat in Baton Rouge, headin' for the trains
    Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
    Bobby thumbed a diesel down just before it rained
    Took us all the way to New Orleans

    I took my harpoon out of my dirty red bandanna
    And was blowin' sad while Bobby sang the blues
    With them windshield wipers slappin' time and
    Bobby clappin' hands we finally sang up every song
    That driver knew...

    Written by a Merton man. Bet Liz can't top that.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    Quite fitting all the "riding out the storm" references in this weather.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Bunch of workshy grifters. Need real workers, like that JRM fellow, who works more inefficiently by making others print things out and bring it to his office, rather than do it himself or be sent it.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    ‘Proposals’ is perhaps a tad over-stated?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ
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    StereodogStereodog Posts: 400
    I can’t get over how badly she delivers a speech. Her intonation is all over the place and half the time she sounds like one of those computer text readers.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,240
    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    You need to get over Johnson
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Better jobs?
    Then say better jobs but say it in a way that doesn't disrespec' shelf stackers.

    Which of course she can't.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,929
    A string of easily forgettable platitudes.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    I think Liz’s problem is that you can’t simultaneously cut taxes, fend off the energy crisis, deliver more infrastructure investment and manage the deficit.

    One or two of those things need to give.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Honestly I think her speechifying is adequate, but it has no personality to it is all - she's obviously trained, worked hard on her diction and delivery, and it comes across like it is super rehearsed.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,837
    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-4-september-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849/photo/1
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    When she said we have huge reserves of energy did she mean physically or with gas? As I have neither.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,355
    Scott_xP said:

    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...

    Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Gardenwalker said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.

    She means on weekends and feast days.
    And all those pesky EU guaranteed days annual leave.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,895
    edited September 2022
    BBC: First tax cut from Truss is to reverse the rise in NI.

    Your regular reminder that I said on here, repeatedly at the time, that the ludicrous jobs tax would either be canned before it was implemented or reversed in short order. It was, I said, the Tory equivalent of Brown's 10p infamous tax.

    Various credulous PBers, such as Big G said that it could not be reversed. It has lasted just five months. I was right. The PB Credulants were wrong.

    All noted, I hope.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    Speech wasn't too bad. She does better when she doesn't have to stop for audience applause. So similar to Theresa I get the feeling she doesn't really "do" people. Which is unfortunate as it's the people that are going to have to vote for her in the end...
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited September 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    You need to get over Johnson
    You need to get over Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,240
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ

    Wrong

    That poll was on the 4th September before the last 24 hours, not at this moment

    I do not expect polls to improve before we have heard the announcements
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    williamglenn said:

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
    Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,837
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...

    Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?
    She didn't say #1, she said holding Britain back.

    Absofuckinglutely, Brexit is holding Britain back.
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    CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 2,757
    Labour lead by 17% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (4 September):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    Reform UK 7% (+2)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 21 August
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
    Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and once the eggs are broken, it's better to make the omelette than try to put them back together again.
This discussion has been closed.