Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,731
edited September 2022 in General
imagePunters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

On this first day of the Truss Premiership the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance.

Read the full story here

«13456714

Comments

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    In Liz We Trusst
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    I hope the pollsters are conducting new polls for the Sunday newspapers.
  • Options
    Looks like the rain's stopped!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    The lecturn is in out, in out, and shaking it all about
  • Options
    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    It looks like the Tory wets are still about ... :smile:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    JACK_W said:

    Rain Stops Truss Speech - Nation Saved ...

    No, back on, the lectern has been moved back outside
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    41% too high?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    “She’s nearly here!” someone says, in the tone of someone declaring “Godot is coming!”.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    Ooooh - going south of the river to show inclusivenesss. One in the eye for most black cab drivers.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588
    Mike, surely there's some double counting in your thinking - if she gets removed before the election it will be because she's looking like not being PM after it anyway.
  • Options
    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,272
    Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,919
    edited September 2022

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Why so bland?

    EDIT: Konstable Savage will be on you like a tramp on chips.
  • Options

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    41% too high?

    I am surprised it is as high as that, certainly judging by opinion on here
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    I'd give her 55% chance
    Sandpit said:

    What a weird route they’re taking!

    Frantic rewriting.
  • Options
    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    HYUFD said:

    JACK_W said:

    Rain Stops Truss Speech - Nation Saved ...

    No, back on, the lectern has been moved back outside
    Truss Speech On - Nation Buggered
  • Options

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?
    She's the only PM to have tweeted a photo of her feet:

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/993173287197962246
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I'd have a great deal more respect if she can do a king Canute on Mama nature.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Lots of detours for sightseeing…
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
    New broom...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/06/mark-fullbrook-named-chief-of-staff-as-truss-selects-inner-circle
    ...Fullbrook, who was Truss’s co-campaign director, is entering government after a long-term partnership with Crosby as a political consultant. He struck out on his own this year with a new company, Fullbrook Strategies, which has lobbied the UK government on behalf of Libya’s controversial parliament and a company that won the biggest PPE deal of the pandemic through the VIP fast-track lane.

    The company has stopped its commercial activities in the last few days. But prior to that, it acted for Libya’s House of Representatives, which has twice attempted to overthrow the UN-established government of national unity in Tripoli, and Santé Global, formerly Unispace Health, which was awarded a £680m PPE contract in 2020....
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    41% too high?

    Lay that rather than back Starmer imo.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited September 2022
    Bloody Google Maps…

    And they’ve ended up in a cul-de-sac
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877
    You'd have thought she'd have a coterie of ball boys, well oiled to pull their waterproof covers over her lectern.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    Speaking better already.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    Truss starts with a tribute to Boris and his delivery of Brexit, the Covid vaccine and standing up to Putin. Says history will see him as a very consequential PM.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Like me, Liz is a working class Yorkshire person, hurrah for our humble roots.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689

    It seems the only response from Labour spokespersons today has been a windfall tax will pay

    Will Labour or indeed anyone confirm just how much a windfall tax will raise as I believe it is around £8 billion at most and a one off

    I’ll be straight with you Big G.

    If it only costs £29B to cover the October and January jumps and the entire £29B comes from windfall tax, Ed Davey is absolutely right, it’s a freeze not Liz Truss loan.

    More likely in my opinion, more than £29B needs to be poured into this, but where you and Truss are wrong, it's a matter of fairness. People are struggling at the moment. These companies have made profit that they never expected to make and therefore that redistribution is really important as part of the package. It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government.

    That is where Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong.
    The 29 billion does not come from the windfall tax

    With respect that is fake news
    With respect, It is "unfair" for working-class people to bear the brunt of any energy company loan scheme that is being brought in by Liz Truss's incoming government - redistribution is really important as part of the package, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?
    I am challenging the impression that the windfall tax will raise more than £8 billion one off

    In the context of labour's offer it will not
    Your mistake Big G is you can’t say how much it will raise, it depends how it’s done - Sunak could have taken £15B he chose to take £5B.
    Personally I don’t think £29B can be taken right now, but you need to stop avoiding the question put to you, as it’s clear to everyone you are ducking it, redistribution is really important as part of the package, not just fairness but buy in and the ability to govern, otherwise you have to admit Truss and the Tory’s have got this spectacularly wrong, don’t you?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,452
    Improvement on yesterday, which isn’t saying a great deal.
  • Options

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    No CoL crisis in Chez TSE!
    Liz is going to give me tax cuts, just what we need.
  • Options
    Build roads? Get to feck Truss.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,452
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    How do you feel about her now ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.
    How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Action this day. neat reference.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    edited September 2022
    If I were a Labour supporter I'd be a little worried about the possibility of Truss closing the gender gap, ie. the way Labour has been ahead with women voters since about 2005.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Hostages to fortune for everyone….
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611

    Build roads? Get to feck Truss.

    I'd far rather she was building roads than being PM.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    "High paying jobs"

    But we will also oppose every increased wage claim from everyone.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    edited September 2022
    "We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"
  • Options
    10% interest rates soon!
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    I think I may spend some of winnings on these shoes, do you think Liz Truss would approve?


    Those look like something a primary school kid with no sense of fashion might wear.
    How in god's name can anyone be foolish enough to pay that for them ?
    They are far too bland for me.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Boris's comparing himself to Cincinnatus really takes some beating for perverse cheap schoolboy nonsense.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    Economy, energy and NHS?
    What were those top 3 issues again?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    Code: the NHS is not fit for purpose.

    One of her top three priorities.
  • Options
    That was a big improvement
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    That was rather good
  • Options
    Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech :lol:
  • Options
    Better than yesterday but that’s a low bar.
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.

    She means on weekends and feast days.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    So we're not already modern and brilliant?

    Who TF's fault is that?
  • Options
    The Tories are back telling us what a wonderful speech that was, super majority for PM Truss!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    Shit! Just went to the loo and missed the speech :lol:

    Better out than in.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    Shades of MAGA.

    Make us modern and brilliant. We already are (or you should think we already are) modern and brilliant. Muppet.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    Better than yesterday. But she could hardly be worse
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    Is Miss Trusst PM yet?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Better jobs?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,150
    First pic of Liz arriving at No 10. Not going to let the rain trouble her.


  • Options
    Good speech and interesting that she referenced building and spades in the ground so much. Perhaps she's planning some genuine free market reforms on planning.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271

    That was a speech that could be from a student Union election. 🫣

    She will DELIVER!
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    edited September 2022
    Yet again she didn’t say anything. Other than yet again threaten workers rights.

    “Do you have a plan Priminister?”
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
    I thought she hated redistribution?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...
  • Options
    Superb speech, excellent. PM Truss will be here for the next fifty years, I for one am looking forward to the 150 seat majority she surely brings
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    IshmaelZ said:

    That was rather good

    Disagree.

    She wants to create jobs - as you yourself noted we have record employment.
    She wants to focus on the NHS - which the Cons have been in charge of for 12 yrs.
    She wants us to be "modern and brilliant" - what does she think we are now. And why?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    "We need to build faster (ignore what i pitched to Tory members about giving locals more say)"

    Spades in the ground she said.

  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,734
    edited September 2022
    carnforth said:

    Forgive the naive question, but if we can sell 3.5 billion of debt at 2.6 times cover, why doesn't the auction process reduce the interest rate until the cover is 1.0?

    Great question. I assume it’s because governments fear a “failed auction” narrative so much that they’re prepared to accept a slight premium on the interest rate.

    Anyone better informed wish to comment? There must be at least one lurker from HMT, or someone with experience in the bond market?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954

    10% interest rates soon!

    Good news for savers :D
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,567
    edited September 2022
    @MoonRabbit from last thread
    Thats what im waiting to see. The Truss plan and Starmer plan will probably have similar net effects in freezing but truss AIUI is for 2 years and slightly better protects lower end users whilst punishing higher end a bit more.
    The key however is businesses - Davey and Starmers freeze does nothing for them, if Truss does then her plan is superior regardless of raising 4% of the cost via a windfall tax or not.
    No point us all staying warm and there being no businesses left to utilise and work for
    Edit - no business measures and Truss can do one on day one
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our first PM fully educated at a comprehensive school and Merton college's first PM arrives to speak outside No 10 for the first time. What a huge change we are witnessing today from the previous administration

    Real achievement for diversity, giving another Oxford College a go….
    Busted flat in Baton Rouge, headin' for the trains
    Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
    Bobby thumbed a diesel down just before it rained
    Took us all the way to New Orleans

    I took my harpoon out of my dirty red bandanna
    And was blowin' sad while Bobby sang the blues
    With them windshield wipers slappin' time and
    Bobby clappin' hands we finally sang up every song
    That driver knew...

    Written by a Merton man. Bet Liz can't top that.
  • Options
    Quite fitting all the "riding out the storm" references in this weather.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Bunch of workshy grifters. Need real workers, like that JRM fellow, who works more inefficiently by making others print things out and bring it to his office, rather than do it himself or be sent it.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    ‘Proposals’ is perhaps a tad over-stated?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ
  • Options
    I can’t get over how badly she delivers a speech. Her intonation is all over the place and half the time she sounds like one of those computer text readers.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    You need to get over Johnson
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again? Jobs isn't the problem, unemployment at a periodic low what's she talking about?

    Better jobs?
    Then say better jobs but say it in a way that doesn't disrespec' shelf stackers.

    Which of course she can't.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    A string of easily forgettable platitudes.
  • Options
    I think Liz’s problem is that you can’t simultaneously cut taxes, fend off the energy crisis, deliver more infrastructure investment and manage the deficit.

    One or two of those things need to give.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Honestly I think her speechifying is adequate, but it has no personality to it is all - she's obviously trained, worked hard on her diction and delivery, and it comes across like it is super rehearsed.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-4-september-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849/photo/1
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    When she said we have huge reserves of energy did she mean physically or with gas? As I have neither.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588
    Scott_xP said:

    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...

    Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Get Britain working again is odd at time of record employment. Unless you think british workers are workshy slackers.

    She means on weekends and feast days.
    And all those pesky EU guaranteed days annual leave.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    edited September 2022
    BBC: First tax cut from Truss is to reverse the rise in NI.

    Your regular reminder that I said on here, repeatedly at the time, that the ludicrous jobs tax would either be canned before it was implemented or reversed in short order. It was, I said, the Tory equivalent of Brown's 10p infamous tax.

    Various credulous PBers, such as Big G said that it could not be reversed. It has lasted just five months. I was right. The PB Credulants were wrong.

    All noted, I hope.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Speech wasn't too bad. She does better when she doesn't have to stop for audience applause. So similar to Theresa I get the feeling she doesn't really "do" people. Which is unfortunate as it's the people that are going to have to vote for her in the end...
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited September 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Some good proposals from Truss on new infrastructure etc and ensuring security abroad as well as at home.

    As promised she proposes tax cuts and reform. She blames the energy crisis on Putin but says she will secure our future energy supply.

    Opportunity and prosperity for all she promises. Now first shot with her husband outside No 10.

    Dull delivery though again, certainly in contrast to Boris' oratorical flourishes this morning. However let us see how she gets on and what the new Cabinet brings

    You need to get over Johnson
    You need to get over Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer leads Truss by 7% in the Red Wall.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (4 September)

    Keir Starmer 39% (–)
    Liz Truss 32% (-3)
    Don't Know 29% (+3)

    Changes +/- 21 August
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1567183409318862849?s=20&t=_ROrMQd0ibYn062W7OZMPQ

    Wrong

    That poll was on the 4th September before the last 24 hours, not at this moment

    I do not expect polls to improve before we have heard the announcements
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
    Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime minister Liz Truss in her first speech outside No.10:

    “Now is the time to tackle the issues that are holding Britain back.”

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1567183127134584838


    Brexit...

    Really? Still? To you, Brexit is still Britain's #1 issue?
    She didn't say #1, she said holding Britain back.

    Absofuckinglutely, Brexit is holding Britain back.
  • Options
    Labour lead by 17% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (4 September):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    Reform UK 7% (+2)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 21 August
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Get Britain working again?

    Working has a second meaning.
    Oh, you mean Boris broke it? I didn't think that was your new way of thinking.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and once the eggs are broken, it's better to make the omelette than try to put them back together again.
This discussion has been closed.