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Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageJohnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

This weekend we have had the final Opinium poll of the Boris Johnson Premiership and I thought it would to be useful to record how his approval ratings are doing in different parts of the country right to the end. This will be a good pointer to compare with his successor

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Phyrst
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,095
    Loser 2nd
  • Brummies showing once more they are thick, the accent is one heck of a giveaway.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    edited September 4
    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

  • Because Mark Drakeford is so awesome you can understand why Boris Johnson polls the worst in Wales.

    They see the frankly divine Drakeford then see Boris Johnson and gap in talents is so massive.
  • Brummies showing once more they are thick, the accent is one heck of a giveaway.

    Not as bad as the Indo-Pakistani accent :lol:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,281
    edited September 4
    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak
  • Well my firm predicted this a while back.

    Police forces are braced for a rise in crime, a breakdown in public order and even corruption in their ranks this winter as they draw up emergency proposals to deal with the cost of living crisis.

    Contingency planning among police chiefs is under way to deal with the fallout that could result from millions of households falling into financial difficulties.

    A leaked national strategy paper, drawn up by them this summer, has revealed they are increasingly concerned that “economic turmoil and financial instability” has “potential to drive increases in particular crime types”.

    These include “acquisitive” offences, such as shoplifting, burglary and vehicle theft, as well as online fraud and blackmail, and crimes that “rely on exploiting financial vulnerability”.

    At a regional level, some police forces are preparing for more children to be sucked into county lines drug gangs and women falling victim to sexual exploitation. Priti Patel, the home secretary, is understood to share their concern.

    One chief constable has said that their force has already noticed an increase in some offences and has stepped up preparations in response. The higher price cap on household energy bills, £3,549, comes into force on October 1.

    Drawn up with input from the National Police Chiefs’ Council, the document goes on to say that “a more complex and unpredictable risk is the chance of greater civil unrest, as a response to prolonged and painful economic pressure”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-fear-hard-winter-surging-crime-civil-unrest-cg56xmrkz
  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    We Raab for next PM backers I think are realising our bets are likely to prove excellent value losers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531
    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    We Raab for next PM backers I think are realising our bets are likely to prove excellent value losers.
    I stand to pick up £1,600 if Keir Starmer can somehow nip in between now and Tuesday.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,932

    Well my firm predicted this a while back.

    Police forces are braced for a rise in crime, a breakdown in public order and even corruption in their ranks this winter as they draw up emergency proposals to deal with the cost of living crisis.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-fear-hard-winter-surging-crime-civil-unrest-cg56xmrkz

    I don't think you can blame this kind of behaviour on the cost of living:

    https://twitter.com/UB1UB2/status/1566130856284004355
  • MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,279
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Gin and tIt.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,095
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Best enjoyed with some nuts.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

  • MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
    Fine, do the maths yourself.
    I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,279
    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
    Fine, do the maths yourself.
    I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
    Polynomial rise or exponential?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
    Fine, do the maths yourself.
    I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
    Polynomial rise or exponential?
    Dunno, but it’s not a patch on the surprisingly OK “DC League of Superpets”.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,471
    This seems like a pretty solid sign that Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson is making good progress.

    Euan MacDonald
    @Euan_MacDonald
    The Kremlin now sending overt signals that it wants to negotiate: The aim is to "freeze" the conflict with the present territorial gains for Russia, so that more territory can be taken once Russia regains military strength. Ukraine understands this, but will the West fall for it?


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1566454490177347588
  • Sunil_Prasannan and Gardenwalker are talking (Big) Apples and Oranges.

    Seeing as how I think SP is talking about NYC MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) whereas G's numbers are for NYC CSA (Central Statistical Area).

    Note that CSA includes turf (for example in this case Stamford, Connecticut) that is NOT included in MSA.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,613

    This seems like a pretty solid sign that Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson is making good progress.

    Euan MacDonald
    @Euan_MacDonald
    The Kremlin now sending overt signals that it wants to negotiate: The aim is to "freeze" the conflict with the present territorial gains for Russia, so that more territory can be taken once Russia regains military strength. Ukraine understands this, but will the West fall for it?


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1566454490177347588

    A way might be found to freeze the conflict if Russia agreed to withdraw from occupied areas and place them in the care of the UN.

    But I don’t see that being acceptable to them unless their situation is much more serious than we think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,474

    Because Mark Drakeford is so awesome you can understand why Boris Johnson polls the worst in Wales.

    They see the frankly divine Drakeford then see Boris Johnson and gap in talents is so massive.

    Will you not be supporting Johnson in the forthcoming Leadership election?

    Twelve letters will be in Brady's postbag by close of business Tuesday, and the remainder on his desk before the New Year, according to the Mirror. Best if Liz leaves the wallpaper hanging.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531

    Sunil_Prasannan and Gardenwalker are talking (Big) Apples and Oranges.

    Seeing as how I think SP is talking about NYC MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) whereas G's numbers are for NYC CSA (Central Statistical Area).

    Note that CSA includes turf (for example in this case Stamford, Connecticut) that is NOT included in MSA.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

    No, I was using the MSA.

    As I said the CSA seems more of a statistical artefact than a commuting reality.

    Sunil has no clue about New York geography, and to be fair I would habe struggled before I moved here.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    I'm not sure why the Midlands figures are noteworthy. It has always been neck and neck. There are 9 old style counties which have always had predominantly tory seats, and 1 met County with leafy bits in it. It is hardly surprising that the tories always win the area.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    edited September 4

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Gin and tIt.
    Certainly not taken with a dash of Angostura bitters, one presumes. That would be too parlour pinko.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,443
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
    Fine, do the maths yourself.
    I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
    Polynomial rise or exponential?
    What!? I have a slight doubt that you understand these terms.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Gin and tIt.
    Certainly not taken with a dash of Angostura bitters, one presumes. That would be too Woke.
    Gin and bitter
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Gin and tIt.
    Certainly not taken with a dash of Angostura bitters, one presumes. That would be too Woke.
    Gin and bitter
    That too, come to think of it!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910

    Sunil_Prasannan and Gardenwalker are talking (Big) Apples and Oranges.

    Seeing as how I think SP is talking about NYC MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) whereas G's numbers are for NYC CSA (Central Statistical Area).

    Note that CSA includes turf (for example in this case Stamford, Connecticut) that is NOT included in MSA.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

    No, I was using the MSA.

    As I said the CSA seems more of a statistical artefact than a commuting reality.

    Sunil has no clue about New York geography, and to be fair I would habe struggled before I moved here.
    You can't expect it to compare with his understanding of UK geography, particularly the London commuter belt. Not many BR stations in NY state.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    We Raab for next PM backers I think are realising our bets are likely to prove excellent value losers.
    I stand to pick up £1,600 if Keir Starmer can somehow nip in between now and Tuesday.
    I can’t see quite that number of membership write-ins.
    And would the ‘22 even accept them ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited September 4
    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    Forth of the Firth.

    FPT:

    carnforth said:

    A six bedroom, 3650sqft house in Montclair, New Jersey. Built 1927.

    Less than $1m.

    About 14 miles from Wall Street.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/155-Highland-Ave-Montclair-Twp.-NJ-07042-1913/38680798_zpid/

    What does £850k buy you in Epping, Brentwood, Oxted or Epsom?

    Did you scroll past the first two photoshop pictures to see its current state? Needs another $1m of work. It may also have tens or hundreds of thousands of back-taxes due.
    Lol.

    Ok fair enough, I did not.

    But I encourage you to look around other properties in Montclair, New Jersey, which I chose because it’s known as a trendy place to move to when you have kids.

    Anyway my contention is:

    1. London and the SE are not densely populated compared to New York and it’s surrounds.

    2. Somehow, greater New York allows people to aspire to - and live - the middle class dream, which seems thoroughly dead in the South East.

    Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.

    NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

    I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt

    For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.

    Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.

    Hmmm.

    New York MSA is actually 6720 square miles, there’s an error in the Wiki header I think.
    Source?
    You can PM me, as I doubt broader PB cares. The 4700 claim is attributed to Statista who seem to have their own definition that doesn’t match the US statistical agency.

    Translation: "Gardenwalker is just making it up as he goes along!"
    Fine, do the maths yourself.
    I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
    Polynomial rise or exponential?
    What!? I have a slight doubt that you understand these terms.
    weak joke based on rise of gru.

    But I do, and without looking it up. x^n vs n^x.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    Nigelb said:

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    We Raab for next PM backers I think are realising our bets are likely to prove excellent value losers.
    I stand to pick up £1,600 if Keir Starmer can somehow nip in between now and Tuesday.
    I can’t see quite that number of membership write-ins.
    And would the ‘22 even accept them ?
    Why not? It's all so bizarre already I'd believe it if we learnt that the address on each envelope had to be written in the blood of a virgin rabbit sacrificed at the waxing of the moon on the grave of [fill in your favourite Tory saint].
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage has launched a gin. What a complete and utter grif ... wealth creating entrepreneur!

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1566471401153957888?

    "Others' ruin"
    Gin & Moronic
    Gin and tIt.
    Best accompanied by a dash of Grant Schweppes.
    Free market only, surely ?

    And it couldn’t be Leaver-Free, either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    edited September 4
    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,474
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Legend has it that David Bowie used to cut words out of the Daily Mail, throw them in the air and write songs based on how the words landed. Is that how you wrote that post?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531
    From Twitter.

    Rue McClanahan (youngest GG) was 51 when the Golden Girls began. Estelle Getty was 62. Betty White & Bea Arthur were 63.

    Lisa Kudrow is now 58. Courteney Cox is 57. David Schwimmer & Matt LeBlanc are 54. Jennifer Aniston is 53. Matthew Perry is 52.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Who on earth is going to be happy to see their workplace rights reduced?

    As a well paid IT contractor I get compensation for my lack of rights (say 100% or so extra pay) but few people are going to accept less rights for no more money….
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,095

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.

    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Seems to be saying a liking for complex coffee is incompatible with love of god and country.

    Rather presumptuous, that, imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    By way of light relief, Netflix’s new Korean drama series “Little Women” is the most radical re-imagining of Louisa May Alcott’s classic I’ve ever come across.

    It’s a genuine mashup of the original text, with its focus on intra-familial female relationships, and a corporate embezzlement/political corruption/gangster murder thriller.

    Demented, but so far, brilliant.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,531
    edited September 4
    kinabalu said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.

    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Seems to be saying a liking for complex coffee is incompatible with love of god and country.

    Rather presumptuous, that, imo.
    Actually, he’s got a point.
    American coffee is both burnt to shit AND pimped up with so much cream and Christ knows what else that it is effectively a pudding.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    Brummies showing once more they are thick, the accent is one heck of a giveaway.

    Not as bad as the Indo-Pakistani accent :lol:
    I always think that the Indo-Pakistani accent was an indication of an intelligent, erudite, cultured person. Maybe I’m influenced by your posts.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    We Raab for next PM backers I think are realising our bets are likely to prove excellent value losers.
    I stand to pick up £1,600 if Keir Starmer can somehow nip in between now and Tuesday.
    I can’t see quite that number of membership write-ins.
    And would the ‘22 even accept them ?
    Why not? It's all so bizarre already I'd believe it if we learnt that the address on each envelope had to be written in the blood of a virgin rabbit sacrificed at the waxing of the moon on the grave of [fill in your favourite Tory saint].
    Events indicate you might have a point.

    Larry4Leader: No 10’s Larry the cat ‘enters’ race to become next PM
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/larry4leader-no-10s-larry-the-cat-enters-race-to-become-next-pm
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!

    I was more surprised by GE 2017 than ref 2016. I would put a RS win somewhere between the two.

    Bloody funny, it would be.
  • boulay said:

    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!

    Rishi winning would be more of a surprise than Brexit because in this case the result is already known. The votes have been counted and various people told. Not so in a referendum or normal election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    boulay said:

    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!

    Within minutes they would be on TV saying the election result is a "steal" and "crocked" and demanding an inquiry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    what an insult... to mince. It is astonishing how so many dullards reveal their room temperature IQs online.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,932

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    That’s Keir Starmer’s brother you’re talking to.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,485

    boulay said:

    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!

    Within minutes they would be on TV saying the election result is a "steal" and "crocked" and demanding an inquiry.
    And they'd be right. Sunak's best bet for the job is to undermine Truss and hope she loses the next election badly, and he's still relevant. I don't see that happening either, but still.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    boulay said:

    Would Sunak winning be more of a surprise/shock on the day than the “Yes” to Brexit?

    I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?

    And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!

    Within minutes they would be on TV saying the election result is a "steal" and "crocked" and demanding an inquiry.
    me, I would wait for Panners n Lobbers to pronounce on the judicial reviewability of the whole thing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,485

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Nice pattern, I'm sure you cut quite the dash.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,226
    On topic.

    The conservatives lost two byelections in Redditch last Thursday.

    https://redditchstandard.co.uk/news/here-are-the-full-results-from-the-redditch-by-election/

    Redditch is a typical manufacturing swing seat in the Midlands.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555
    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Less worried than you... especially since I used to be considered a pretty good shot. It is after all why firearms were invented..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,999
    Cicero said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    what an insult... to mince. It is astonishing how so many dullards reveal their room temperature IQs online.
    Don’t insult room temperature so much….
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    Far too much redistribution over the last twenty years.

  • "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    “ Former President Donald Trump said the FBI’s search of his Mar-a-Lago estate was a travesty of justice and called President Biden an "enemy of the state"..”

    Can we have just one overwrought essay about how this framing really hurts the feelings of Biden’s supporters and might even risk radicalizing them?
    https://twitter.com/adamdavidson/status/1566491099321044994
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cicero said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Less worried than you... especially since I used to be considered a pretty good shot. It is after all why firearms were invented..
    Does that look to you like a guy who forgoes his 2nd amendment rights? I mean, we can all boast about 1 inch groups with the .303 at dear ole Bisley, but against AR15s?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    Indeed, SKS's employment law and tax policies have my unqualified support.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    Far too much redistribution over the last twenty years.

    Yes Directors pay has only gone up by 38% in the last year and the greedy proles are not happy with their pay freeze. Its a disgrace what do they want a wage driven inflationary spiral!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    A calm and ‘devastating’ takedown of the Pannick opinion.
    Worth reading in full.

    https://davidallengreen.com/2022/09/the-not-at-all-devastating-devastating-johnson-opinion-on-contempt-of-parliament/
    … This Opinion is, in effect, a PR exercise.

    If this Opinion was, in fact, devastating then – in my view – it could have been quietly disclosed to the House of Commons committee of privileges in respect of its inquiry.

    The inquiry would then have been devastated.

    The content of the Opinion would have been so formidable that the committee would have known the game was up, and they would have terminated the inquiry with immediate effect.

    That is what the effect of a “devastating” opinion would have been: devastation.

    But this Opinion was not quietly disclosed to the committee.

    It was instead placed into the public domain.

    On a Friday afternoon.

    After it was leaked to a newspaper…

  • IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    As I said Truss will win back a few posh Remainers like TSE who are otherwise economic Thatcherites but in the redwall she will lose votes relative to Boris
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555
    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    Indeed, SKS's employment law and tax policies have my unqualified support.
    SKS and policies do not belong in the same sentence surely.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    Far too much redistribution over the last twenty years.

    Yes Directors pay has only gone up by 38% in the last year and the greedy proles are not happy with their pay freeze. Its a disgrace what do they want a wage driven inflationary spiral!
    You’re forgetting their dividend entitlements.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    And is she a man?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Less worried than you... especially since I used to be considered a pretty good shot. It is after all why firearms were invented..
    Does that look to you like a guy who forgoes his 2nd amendment rights? I mean, we can all boast about 1 inch groups with the .303 at dear ole Bisley, but against AR15s?
    It's his chopper I'd be worried about.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Good

    "Come the glorious day"
  • "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Less worried than you... especially since I used to be considered a pretty good shot. It is after all why firearms were invented..
    Does that look to you like a guy who forgoes his 2nd amendment rights? I mean, we can all boast about 1 inch groups with the .303 at dear ole Bisley, but against AR15s?
    It's his chopper I'd be worried about.
    ooh, er.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146
    edited September 4
    HYUFD said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    As I said Truss will win back a few posh Remainers like TSE who are otherwise economic Thatcherites but in the redwall she will lose votes relative to Boris
    So, bigger majorities in already safe seats, and losses in northern marginals. Not really what she needs.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    Depends on what Debbie Mghee saw in Paul Daniels I think
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,368
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555
    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,443
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    That sounds like the founding foot of an Oxford college.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    edited September 4

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not
    nothing.

    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    Truss will be our first PM solely educated at a comprehensive school for secondary education but also the first PM from Merton college
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Good

    "Come the glorious day"
    Of, what, red tory on blue tory victory? It almost seems like you are getting behind SK "fuck the workers" S?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,146

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    Depends on what Debbie Mghee saw in Paul Daniels I think
    I suspect his chopper was fairly small.
    Edit. Sorry, wrong conversation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,368
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    I would note that the "polling" organization with no staff, no office, no clients and no website appears to have spoken to more people than any of the established firms, with - you know - revenues and stuff.
  • Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
This discussion has been closed.