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Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited September 2022

    Brummies showing once more they are thick, the accent is one heck of a giveaway.

    Birmingham is pretty much the only area of the West Midlands that didn't vote Conservative at the last election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    It is adjacent to what was, for a time, the best place near the centre of Oxford to snag a vacant parking space.
    That is its only real relevance.

    The rest is moot.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    Yeah but the unredistribution must be tempting.
  • Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    From RCP - no polls they reference in July / August pre-Trafalgar had Walker in the lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html#polls
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
    You haven’t missed much here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Yes, toned hulk or what. Puts even Boris Johnson circa 2020 in the shade.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
  • "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    Is it because she studied at the Sorbonne?

  • "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    Yeah but the unredistribution must be tempting.
    Yup, us higher rate tax payers have been taxed too much, we need some fairness.

    Why should we pay for the plebs?

    Enough is enough.

    But if you want to tax us more, then give us two votes at a general election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    And you never thought that it would happen, that night you ain't forgotten.

    was at the afterparty at the Belladrum festival 15ish years ago. Talking to a bloke playing an acoustic guitar and singing Dylan. Then he said Fuck that, I'll play you one of my own. And sang that.

  • Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    Sep 3
    Increasingly clear that Sunak winning would be one of the funniest things that has ever happened in UK politics.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    Depends on what Debbie Mghee saw in Paul Daniels I think
    I suspect his chopper was fairly small.
    Edit. Sorry, wrong conversation.
    'Not a lot, but you'll like it'
  • pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    A Canada 1993 style wipeout would be very agreeable.

    It won't happen of course. They'll be bailed out by the elderly.
  • HYUFD said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    As I said Truss will win back a few posh Remainers like TSE who are otherwise economic Thatcherites but in the redwall she will lose votes relative to Boris
    So, bigger majorities in already safe seats, and losses in northern marginals. Not really what she needs.
    And, if the stories about her planned cabinet are true, she may struggle to achieve those gains.

    Apart from not having directly lied to us all, Truss has most of BoJo's vices and misses out on some of his virtues.

    This isn't about wanting BoJo back, but it's not obvious that Truss will be an overall improvement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,309
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    I would note that the "polling" organization with no staff, no office, no clients and no website appears to have spoken to more people than any of the established firms, with - you know - revenues and stuff.
    However, Trafalgar is rated highly by 538, at A-.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Mrs BJO is on day 2 of her 2 grand a day private rehabilitation. £18,000 of her compo. spent.
    Meanwhile I am having a night in Cleethorpes at the £39 Premier Inn.
  • "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    Is it because she studied at the Sorbonne?

    No, it's her Trumpian views on legal advice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.

    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    Why do you assume it should be a bad year for the Democrats ?

    That might have been true a few months back, but it’s far from clear now.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    Hmm.

    If there was a comprehensive leak, I’d expect the sub-markets, such as vote %, to show a big movement, as the odds are more generous. If the headline market move is the consequence of a leak, it’s most likely a discreet nod from Graham, or one of the other insiders at the count to someone with a BF account.

    I haven’t traded this market for weeks, on the basis that i’m likely to be trading against ppl with inside info.

    My basic position is ;

    Truss under 60% -££
    60-64.99 +-0
    65-69.99 +£££
    70%+ +£££££££££££££££
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,309

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
    Prepping to watch Kwasi drowning the nation’s books ?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,147
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Translation - I’m thick as mince.
    Yes. I tend not to say that to people's faces, though, when they are 2x round the bicep what I am round the thigh.
    Less worried than you... especially since I used to be considered a pretty good shot. It is after all why firearms were invented..
    Does that look to you like a guy who forgoes his 2nd amendment rights? I mean, we can all boast about 1 inch groups with the .303 at dear ole Bisley, but against AR15s?
    It’s is for such occasions that one’s butler brings out the other Rolls….

    image
  • Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,309
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.

    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    Why do you assume it should be a bad year for the Democrats ?

    That might have been true a few months back, but it’s far from clear now.
    The President has to be polling very well above 50% for his party to avoid losing seats in mid term.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    pigeon said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    A Canada 1993 style wipeout would be very agreeable.

    It won't happen of course. They'll be bailed out by the elderly.
    It would also require a resurgent Farage so they lose votes to their right as well as to Labour and the Liberals
  • rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,309

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Was that when he was "looking for badgers?"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    A Canada 1993 style wipeout would be very agreeable.

    It won't happen of course. They'll be bailed out by the elderly.
    It would also require a resurgent Farage so they lose votes to their right as well as to Labour and the Liberals
    Not happening sadly. He's pivoted to gin.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Was that when he was "looking for badgers?"
    No that was later.

    Shortly before the 2003 assembly elections, The Sun revealed that Davies had been visiting a well known cruising spot near a motorway lay-by. When challenged as to what he had been doing there, Davies initially denied being there, then told reporters that he had been going for a short walk, adding: "I have actually been there when I have been watching badgers". Davies was forced by his local party to stand down as Labour candidate in the election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Davies_(Welsh_politician)#"Moment_of_Madness"_and_resignation
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
  • Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    It is adjacent to what was, for a time, the best place near the centre of Oxford to snag a vacant parking space.
    That is its only real relevance.

    The rest is moot.
    Where was that? Oxford is a mare for car parking.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,309

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Was that when he was "looking for badgers?"
    No that was later.

    Shortly before the 2003 assembly elections, The Sun revealed that Davies had been visiting a well known cruising spot near a motorway lay-by. When challenged as to what he had been doing there, Davies initially denied being there, then told reporters that he had been going for a short walk, adding: "I have actually been there when I have been watching badgers". Davies was forced by his local party to stand down as Labour candidate in the election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Davies_(Welsh_politician)#"Moment_of_Madness"_and_resignation
    I can't understand why so many politicians insist upon blowing up their own political careers (Johnson is another obvious example).
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Question for the PB brains trust. I was thinking about the insulation in my house. The loft has a few inches of insulation in it, but would I add to that by taking old newspapers up there and scrunching them up in to balls and leaving them till its a foot or 2 deep over most of it? or wood I just create a fire hazard?
  • pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BigRich said:

    Question for the PB brains trust. I was thinking about the insulation in my house. The loft has a few inches of insulation in it, but would I add to that by taking old newspapers up there and scrunching them up in to balls and leaving them till its a foot or 2 deep over most of it? or wood I just create a fire hazard?

    And mouse habitat? Really not that expensive to bring it up to recommended spec with proper fireproof stuff. Pays off in 1 or 2 winters I think.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    BigRich said:

    Question for the PB brains trust. I was thinking about the insulation in my house. The loft has a few inches of insulation in it, but would I add to that by taking old newspapers up there and scrunching them up in to balls and leaving them till its a foot or 2 deep over most of it? or wood I just create a fire hazard?

    Sounds time consuming, ineffective and, as you say, probably a fire hazard (unless you treat the newspaper first). Why bother, though?

    Even basic diy-store insulation material is cheap, made for the job, safe and pretty easy to fit.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Was that when he was "looking for badgers?"
    As opposed to Beavers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    It is adjacent to what was, for a time, the best place near the centre of Oxford to snag a vacant parking space.
    That is its only real relevance.

    The rest is moot.
    Where was that? Oxford is a mare for car parking.
    I don’t think it’s the case any more.
    But for quite some time after they closed the High to private cars, very few drivers thought to try Merton Street, and there was usually a space to be found.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
    How did you like the Globe? I went recently for the first time with a friend (we splurged the £2 for cushions) - really enjoyed it even though Julius Caesar with women playing Brutus and Cassius and soldiers with machine-guns took a bit of getting used to. I liked the way the cast infiltrated the audience and get them chanting in support, and the general ambiance was great.
  • ping said:

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    Hmm.

    If there was a comprehensive leak, I’d expect the sub-markets, such as vote %, to show a big movement, as the odds are more generous. If the headline market move is the consequence of a leak, it’s most likely a discreet nod from Graham, or one of the other insiders at the count to someone with a BF account.

    I haven’t traded this market for weeks, on the basis that i’m likely to be trading against ppl with inside info.

    My basic position is ;

    Truss under 60% -££
    60-64.99 +-0
    65-69.99 +£££
    70%+ +£££££££££££££££
    The Betfair vote percentage has no money left in it. Either layers are running scared or someone in the know has had it right off. 70 per cent has £30 at evens left, so good luck.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    What time is the great Tory leader reveal, by the way?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Taz said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Was that when he was "looking for badgers?"
    As opposed to Beavers.
    Ah, that’s Farage’s new tonic.
    Beaver-Free.
  • Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Not intimately..
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    edited September 2022
    So Gardenwalker, don't people (of sufficient income) still commute from to New York City from southeast Connecticut? And other place NOT in NYC MSA but within bounds of NYC CSA.

    As for total area & population of New York City metropolitan areas as defined by US Census Bureau:

    NYC CSA = 12,399.1 sq miles = 22,633,633 = 1,825.4 people per sq mile

    NYC MSA = 6,648.3 sq miles = 19,261,570 = 2,881.6 people per sq mile

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/33000US408-new-york-newark-ny-nj-ct-pa-csa/

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US35620-new-york-newark-jersey-city-ny-nj-pa-metro-area/

    NOTE that in addition to figures quoted, above links have maps showing extent of CSA versus MSA

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    There's a new, pornographic version.

    The Wrath of Khan ends with him getting Dick out.
  • What time is the great Tory leader reveal, by the way?

    I think it's 11:30 - leaks aside.
  • Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    seedy area of South London.
    Many many years ago, when I was a callow student I was meeting a few friends from London, they told me to meet them on Clapham Common.

    They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
    What a strange name. I've no idea how it arose.
    Remember Ron Davies?
    Not intimately..
    Not for a lack off effort I hope?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    Is all she needs to do to convince you, to open a few new stations?
    No.

    The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.

    I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
    A Canada 1993 style wipeout would be very agreeable.

    It won't happen of course. They'll be bailed out by the elderly.
    It would also require a resurgent Farage so they lose votes to their right as well as to Labour and the Liberals
    Or Johnson and Gove splitting and forming their own Party....
  • ohnotnow said:

    What time is the great Tory leader reveal, by the way?

    I think it's 11:30 - leaks aside.
    Truss is now 1.01

    Which is the number for the economics class she needs to retake.

  • Alison Pearson making comments about the large number of excess deaths now happening in this country

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1565794862934401026?s=20&t=3A35RVDi8EGzfI6Sqsm52g
  • ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    There's a new, pornographic version.

    The Wrath of Khan ends with him getting Dick out.
    Obviously you've never see the film Zack and Miri Make A Porno.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Bonfire of workers rights"

    "Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"

    Bring it on!!

    I really am warming to Liz, I might actually campaign for her at the next election.
    And she is a Merton man, which is not nothing.
    Is Merton a house or college?

    This fluidity bugs me.
    It is adjacent to what was, for a time, the best place near the centre of Oxford to snag a vacant parking space.
    That is its only real relevance.

    The rest is moot.
    Where was that? Oxford is a mare for car parking.
    I don’t think it’s the case any more.
    But for quite some time after they closed the High to private cars, very few drivers thought to try Merton Street, and there was usually a space to be found.
    I always liked walking down there and then onto the Meadows, halcyon days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    There's a new, pornographic version.

    The Wrath of Khan ends with him getting Dick out.
    Obviously you've never see the film Zack and Miri Make A Porno.
    There's a podcast, My Dad Wrote a Porno. Any connection?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    There's a new, pornographic version.

    The Wrath of Khan ends with him getting Dick out.
    Obviously you've never see the film Zack and Miri Make A Porno.
    There's a podcast, My Dad Wrote a Porno. Any connection?
    Don't think so.
  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    1.01 vs 1.02

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    42 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    48 Rishi Sunak
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
    Prepping to watch Kwasi drowning the nation’s books ?

    Oddly enough, I rewatched "Prospero's Books" the other night. Quite a remarkable film.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkwo_rqvvkA

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    ohnotnow said:

    What time is the great Tory leader reveal, by the way?

    I think it's 11:30 - leaks aside.
    Truss is now 1.01

    Wake me up when they release version 2.0
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    There's a new, pornographic version.

    The Wrath of Khan ends with him getting Dick out.
    Obviously you've never see the film Zack and Miri Make A Porno.
    There's a podcast, My Dad Wrote a Porno. Any connection?
    Don't think so.
    So if there is a connection, it's a hard one?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
  • Alison Pearson making comments about the large number of excess deaths now happening in this country

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1565794862934401026?s=20&t=3A35RVDi8EGzfI6Sqsm52g

    "There should be fewer deaths after a pandemic not more,"

    Why?

    Maybe there are tens of thousands who got covid and survived and are now weaker as a result of the assault on their immune systems?

    Is there some golden rule that after a viral pandemic there should not be more excess deaths?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    I would note that the "polling" organization with no staff, no office, no clients and no website appears to have spoken to more people than any of the established firms, with - you know - revenues and stuff.
    However, Trafalgar is rated highly by 538, at A-.
    With all due respect, if I set up Smithson Polls and Garden Implements, and tweeted a few "polls", I'm sure I could get A- on 538.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    edited September 2022
    I

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    I’ve been listening to The Video Archives Podcast where Quentin Tarantino and Roger Avary review some of the films they rented out working at that eponymous California video store in the early eighties. Tarantino bought their whole VHS stock when it shut. It ends with how you can see the film (usually for free or for pennies streaming) and how much the VHS tape cost the store way back when (usually about $60-$70).

    Interestingly, while Tarantino picked up the VHS tapes Avery bought all their laser disks. The glue holding all the disks together has started to disintegrate rendering them unplayable.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    I would note that the "polling" organization with no staff, no office, no clients and no website appears to have spoken to more people than any of the established firms, with - you know - revenues and stuff.
    However, Trafalgar is rated highly by 538, at A-.
    With all due respect, if I set up Smithson Polls and Garden Implements, and tweeted a few "polls", I'm sure I could get A- on 538.

    Surely an A at least
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.

    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    Why do you assume it should be a bad year for the Democrats ?

    That might have been true a few months back, but it’s far from clear now.
    The President has to be polling very well above 50% for his party to avoid losing seats in mid term.
    It's almost inevitable that the Dems will lose seats this time around, but I think it likely the losses will be rather more modest than would have been expected three or four months ago.

  • Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Glad to see you are having a refreshing break from AI is about to enslave us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Wow. That's quite a story.

    Mind you, what's most shocking is of course the idea that a Tory MP might be dishonest. That's extraordinary. After all these years of government by people who are models of integrity and frankness, who have set new standards in public life by their conduct, how could anyone think such a thing?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370
    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Another byelection?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
    It's highly unlikely to shift Ohio into the D column, but this CNN article on JD Vance's campaign is extraordinary: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    ClippP said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Another byelection?
    Sounds more like a sell election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Good evening, Mr. @HYUFD. I trust you have had a good day?
    Yes, we saw the Tempest at the Globe
    How did you like the Globe? I went recently for the first time with a friend (we splurged the £2 for cushions) - really enjoyed it even though Julius Caesar with women playing Brutus and Cassius and soldiers with machine-guns took a bit of getting used to. I liked the way the cast infiltrated the audience and get them chanting in support, and the general ambiance was great.
    Yes it is a good atmosphere, we stood and indeed the actors are good at audience interaction and ad lobbing either their surroundings eg a helicopter overhead. Globe productions tend to be modern dress though now certainly with a fee interactions.

    Good to see the site being used as the Elizabethans intended again, centuries after Cromwell's regime demolished the the theatre and replaced it with tenements
  • Thought this was a pisstake at first, still not 100% sure it isn't. Not the slightest muscle Mary vibe coming from God Fearing Garrett, oh no.



    https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g

    Garrett Soldano - the Fighting Chiropractor/COVID denier of the Wolverine State GOP

    > in August 2022 primary received 17.9% of Michigan Republican primary vote for Governor (3rd place)

    > later in the month, Soldano indicated that he would challenge primary winner Tudor Dixon's pick for her Lieutenant Governor running mate, at the state GOP convention; however, he changed his mind AFTER Trump endorsed Dixon's choice.

    https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/soldano-says-he-will-not-be-running-for-lt-governor/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2022

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    From RCP - no polls they reference in July / August pre-Trafalgar had Walker in the lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html#polls
    RCP is a terrible polling aggregator.

    From 538


    Of particular note is the Phillips Academy +2 Walker lead is a Registerd Voter poll and almost 100% of the time when you filter that down to Likely Voter it becomes more GOP leaning. For example the Beacon +12 at the bottom is a Registered Voter poll, they also show the Likely Voter filter applied which turns that +12 into a +5, it is a huge shift. As a result that Beacon +4 at the end of July is more like a multipoint Walker lead once the LV screen is applied.

    So Trafalgar is, if anything, rather conservative in only having a 1 point lead for Walker.

    Trafalgar, rather famously, got Georgia badly wrong in the 2018 midterms - giving Brian Kemp a Twelve (12) point lead over Stacey Abrams.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Wow. That's quite a story.

    Mind you, what's most shocking is of course the idea that a Tory MP might be dishonest. That's extraordinary. After all these years of government by people who are models of integrity and frankness, who have set new standards in public life by their conduct, how could anyone think such a thing?
    'The Sunday Times says that Mr Bridgen accused the firm of forcing him out of a £93,000-a-year second job, which required him to attend a monthly board meeting.

    The judge found that, rather than being bullied out of the job as he alleged, Mr Bridgen resigned in order to reduce the amount he might owe his first wife in divorce proceedings.

    Judge Brian Rawlings also found that Mr Bridgen pressured the police inspector in his parliamentary constituency of North West Leicestershire to launch a costly one-year investigation into vexatious allegations against his estranged younger brother, Paul Bridgen, 55, who runs AB Produce.'

    https://coalville.nub.news/news/local-news/coalville-mp-is-evicted-from-home-by-judge-following-lengthy-legal-dispute-with-family-business-says-report-148881?fbclid=IwAR1zR9aGkNTdg8aNZKgUm-7rpQ7nywRDr6spiGjK1Lp8SOTp7uo5pqsc17U&utm_content=buffer9f44f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    edited September 2022
    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    ClippP said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Another byelection?
    I don’t think so - unless this bankrupts him or he gets convicted of perjury, the latter being highly unlikely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Really, you need only tell us when you have not.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    Mrs BJO is on day 2 of her 2 grand a day private rehabilitation. £18,000 of her compo. spent.
    Meanwhile I am having a night in Cleethorpes at the £39 Premier Inn.

    Quite right! As befits a Derbyshire socialist!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Really, you need only tell us when you have not.
    Surely not? The earth ceasing to spin on its axis would surely be sign enough?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Alison Pearson making comments about the large number of excess deaths now happening in this country

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1565794862934401026?s=20&t=3A35RVDi8EGzfI6Sqsm52g

    Maybe Ms Pearson should look all the way back to the start of 2022, when excess deaths were dramatically below normal levels.

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    ClippP said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Another byelection?
    Or another contender for a seat in the Cabinet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1566483708177170432

    Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP for Leicestershire North West, has been evicted from his home and has been ordered to pay £800,000 in legal costs, and could be ordered to pay £244,000 in rent arrears.

    He has also been described as ‘dishonest’ by a judge.

    Wow. That's quite a story.

    Mind you, what's most shocking is of course the idea that a Tory MP might be dishonest. That's extraordinary. After all these years of government by people who are models of integrity and frankness, who have set new standards in public life by their conduct, how could anyone think such a thing?
    Blimey.
    I guess we can no longer call him “Spud-U-Like”.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,510
    edited September 2022

    Alison Pearson making comments about the large number of excess deaths now happening in this country

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1565794862934401026?s=20&t=3A35RVDi8EGzfI6Sqsm52g

    "There should be fewer deaths after a pandemic not more,"

    Why?

    Maybe there are tens of thousands who got covid and survived and are now weaker as a result of the assault on their immune systems?

    Is there some golden rule that after a viral pandemic there should not be more excess deaths?

    Well, yes, you’re absolutely right. Coupled with the effects of long-term overload of the health service.

    But you’d have to claim the opposite if you wanted to darkly hint at antivaxxer narratives and a widespread conspiracy to conceal these secret deaths. As Pearson does (and Toby Young, and the HART group).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
    It's highly unlikely to shift Ohio into the D column, but this CNN article on JD Vance's campaign is extraordinary: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html
    Dr Oz continues to go to dark places and Fox willingly holds his hand
    https://twitter.com/billybinion/status/1566432474552483843
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Glad to see you are having a refreshing break from AI is about to enslave us.
    Portuguese = only people to outdo us in the slave trading AND cod eating dept. Respect.

    There must be a German word for when you think of a really important thing and are amazed there isn't more research on the subject and think perhaps you should write a book about it because nobody else has and then you suddenly come across the utterly superb, makes all the points you've been making Slave Empire: How Slavery Built Modern Britain

    WOKE af, natch.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    *snf snf tears*

    *slices a shallot*
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,641
    Walker is a total imbecile and can hardly string a coherent sentence together and is too spineless to debate Warnock.

    The fact Walker is polling this well in Georgia shows the desperate state of US politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Glad to see you are having a refreshing break from AI is about to enslave us.
    Portuguese = only people to outdo us in the slave trading AND cod eating dept. Respect.

    There must be a German word for when you think of a really important thing and are amazed there isn't more research on the subject and think perhaps you should write a book about it because nobody else has and then you suddenly come across the utterly superb, makes all the points you've been making Slave Empire: How Slavery Built Modern Britain

    WOKE af, natch.

    Careful. Leon might be reading. Don’t want to spoil his wine time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Is that a come on?
This discussion has been closed.