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Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com
This weekend we have had the final Opinium poll of the Boris Johnson Premiership and I thought it would to be useful to record how his approval ratings are doing in different parts of the country right to the end. This will be a good pointer to compare with his successor
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FPT: Those are interesting contentions, and I'm not quite sure what the comparison is at the London end.
NY Metropolitan Area is 4700 sq miles and 20-25 million people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
I would naturally think about something like the so called "Travel to Work" area, or "Outer Commuter Belt", going some way beyond the M25. That comes in at a population of 12-15 million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_metropolitan_area#Outer_commuter_belt
For London, 4700 sq miles would be a radius of 35-40 miles, which includes Slough and Luton and Chelmsford and Guildford, but not eg Reading or Milton Keynes. Suspect that would not be far off the population numbers, and density, as a comparison.
Montclair to Times Square is 13 miles as the crow flies, which is the same as Epsom to Marble Arch.
Hmmm.
They see the frankly divine Drakeford then see Boris Johnson and gap in talents is so massive.
Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.
1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?
Betfair next prime minister
1.02 Liz Truss 98%
34 Rishi Sunak
Next Conservative leader
1.02 Liz Truss 98%
38 Rishi Sunak
Police forces are braced for a rise in crime, a breakdown in public order and even corruption in their ranks this winter as they draw up emergency proposals to deal with the cost of living crisis.
Contingency planning among police chiefs is under way to deal with the fallout that could result from millions of households falling into financial difficulties.
A leaked national strategy paper, drawn up by them this summer, has revealed they are increasingly concerned that “economic turmoil and financial instability” has “potential to drive increases in particular crime types”.
These include “acquisitive” offences, such as shoplifting, burglary and vehicle theft, as well as online fraud and blackmail, and crimes that “rely on exploiting financial vulnerability”.
At a regional level, some police forces are preparing for more children to be sucked into county lines drug gangs and women falling victim to sexual exploitation. Priti Patel, the home secretary, is understood to share their concern.
One chief constable has said that their force has already noticed an increase in some offences and has stepped up preparations in response. The higher price cap on household energy bills, £3,549, comes into force on October 1.
Drawn up with input from the National Police Chiefs’ Council, the document goes on to say that “a more complex and unpredictable risk is the chance of greater civil unrest, as a response to prolonged and painful economic pressure”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-fear-hard-winter-surging-crime-civil-unrest-cg56xmrkz
https://twitter.com/UB1UB2/status/1566130856284004355
I’m watch Minions Rise of Gru.
https://twitter.com/GarrettForMI/status/1566087646396424192?s=20&t=F21VHPROGTfoSk2kvHif3g
Euan MacDonald
@Euan_MacDonald
The Kremlin now sending overt signals that it wants to negotiate: The aim is to "freeze" the conflict with the present territorial gains for Russia, so that more territory can be taken once Russia regains military strength. Ukraine understands this, but will the West fall for it?
https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1566454490177347588
Seeing as how I think SP is talking about NYC MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) whereas G's numbers are for NYC CSA (Central Statistical Area).
Note that CSA includes turf (for example in this case Stamford, Connecticut) that is NOT included in MSA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area
But I don’t see that being acceptable to them unless their situation is much more serious than we think.
Twelve letters will be in Brady's postbag by close of business Tuesday, and the remainder on his desk before the New Year, according to the Mirror. Best if Liz leaves the wallpaper hanging.
As I said the CSA seems more of a statistical artefact than a commuting reality.
Sunil has no clue about New York geography, and to be fair I would habe struggled before I moved here.
And would the ‘22 even accept them ?
But I do, and without looking it up. x^n vs n^x.
And it couldn’t be Leaver-Free, either.
However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.
It will therefore be a bit more of a posh, middle class party again under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer
Rue McClanahan (youngest GG) was 51 when the Golden Girls began. Estelle Getty was 62. Betty White & Bea Arthur were 63.
Lisa Kudrow is now 58. Courteney Cox is 57. David Schwimmer & Matt LeBlanc are 54. Jennifer Aniston is 53. Matthew Perry is 52.
As a well paid IT contractor I get compensation for my lack of rights (say 100% or so extra pay) but few people are going to accept less rights for no more money….
Rather presumptuous, that, imo.
It’s a genuine mashup of the original text, with its focus on intra-familial female relationships, and a corporate embezzlement/political corruption/gangster murder thriller.
Demented, but so far, brilliant.
American coffee is both burnt to shit AND pimped up with so much cream and Christ knows what else that it is effectively a pudding.
I and everyone I knew expected a “No” to Brexit and so were very surprised but with Sunak/Truss it’s taken as given based on polls that Truss has won so surely seismic in a different way if Sunak won?
And would be the funniest thing in the world - I would actually sacrifice one of my bollocks to be in a room with JRM and Nads as it was announced for the absolute meltdown that would ensue!
Larry4Leader: No 10’s Larry the cat ‘enters’ race to become next PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/larry4leader-no-10s-larry-the-cat-enters-race-to-become-next-pm
Bloody funny, it would be.
The conservatives lost two byelections in Redditch last Thursday.
https://redditchstandard.co.uk/news/here-are-the-full-results-from-the-redditch-by-election/
Redditch is a typical manufacturing swing seat in the Midlands.
"Yes it's fair the richest benefit the most from my tax cut proposals"
Bring it on!!
Can we have just one overwrought essay about how this framing really hurts the feelings of Biden’s supporters and might even risk radicalizing them?
https://twitter.com/adamdavidson/status/1566491099321044994
Worth reading in full.
https://davidallengreen.com/2022/09/the-not-at-all-devastating-devastating-johnson-opinion-on-contempt-of-parliament/
… This Opinion is, in effect, a PR exercise.
If this Opinion was, in fact, devastating then – in my view – it could have been quietly disclosed to the House of Commons committee of privileges in respect of its inquiry.
The inquiry would then have been devastated.
The content of the Opinion would have been so formidable that the committee would have known the game was up, and they would have terminated the inquiry with immediate effect.
That is what the effect of a “devastating” opinion would have been: devastation.
But this Opinion was not quietly disclosed to the committee.
It was instead placed into the public domain.
On a Friday afternoon.
After it was leaked to a newspaper…
This fluidity bugs me.
"Come the glorious day"
The reality the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary means the Tory Party is putting pineapple on my political pizza.
I said the other day that for the first time in my life I want the Tory party to lose a general election.
I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )
Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
They had a huge laugh as I wandered aimlessly in the area known as Gobbler's Gulch.
Never seen it before.
If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.
Edit. Sorry, wrong conversation.