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Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Secondary energy sanctions on any country still importing Russian crude. And a criminal ban on facilitation of the international trade of Russian crude and refined products, for example shipping services and insurance, letter of credit issuance or confirmation by anyone with a banking subsidiary or branch in the UK.

    The UK’s power in the worlds of finance and insurance mean we could apply this unilaterally and make a major difference to the international trade of Russian crude. The downside is that it would be inflationary.

    I’ve written to my MP four times on this matter without even a reply. He’s in Cabinet and has a usually excellent constituency office. I can only conclude the energy sanctions have been setup as a sham and the government is not interested in them actually working but just for show. Had we applied them as strong as we possibly could have months ago, we’d be that much closer to Russia running out of steam and the war ending.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    If the figures I've seen in several online sources are to be believed, an easy way to reduce energy (and water) usage is to spend less time in the shower. They quote an average shower time of 7.5 minutes. What are they doing in there? We timed ours for a couple of days and are averaging less than half that (yes we do wash our hair). Not sure how much would be saved by a family of 4 cutting total showering time by 4 minutes each per day but if as a nation we need to reduce consumption by 15% this winter this would help.
    It's easy to see the issue - a 10kw shower uses 1kwh or 50p (October pricing) of electricity in 6 minutes....

    so 16 minutes is 2.66kw or £1.33 a day....

    Now some showers will be 7.5kw rather than 10kw but that's still over £1 a day saved.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited September 2022
    Cookie said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Well with gas, it's quite challenging for Russia to deliver gas to anywhere but the west economically. The pipelines don't really go there at present.
    And with oil, it's quite challenging in the long term for Russia to deliver oil economically. People will buy it, but not necessarily, in the long term, at a price which the Russians can afford to sell it at.
    Gas is a secondary consideration for them in terms of revenue, though, which is why restricting its supply is the favoured weapon - as well as the fact that it's far more difficult to alternatively source.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    Get yourself some Sensibo smart controllers (or similar). Total game changer. I’ve just done the UK equivalent with smart radiator valves (Tado).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited September 2022
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    Get yourself some Sensibo smart controllers (or similar). Total game changer. I’ve just done the UK equivalent with smart radiator valves (Tado).
    Likewise - we have the drayton wiser system - my issue is ensuring that I know the days Mrs Eek is working from home.

    And a draft from under the floorboards downstairs but that will be sorted by lifting the floorboards up and installing https://www.superquilt-insulation.co.uk/product/superquilt-multifoil-thermal-insulation-15m2
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    moonshine said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Secondary energy sanctions on any country still importing Russian crude. And a criminal ban on facilitation of the international trade of Russian crude and refined products, for example shipping services and insurance, letter of credit issuance or confirmation by anyone with a banking subsidiary or branch in the UK.

    The UK’s power in the worlds of finance and insurance mean we could apply this unilaterally and make a major difference to the international trade of Russian crude. The downside is that it would be inflationary.

    I’ve written to my MP four times on this matter without even a reply. He’s in Cabinet and has a usually excellent constituency office. I can only conclude the energy sanctions have been setup as a sham and the government is not interested in them actually working but just for show. Had we applied them as strong as we possibly could have months ago, we’d be that much closer to Russia running out of steam and the war ending.
    The G7 moved last week to cap the price members would [ay for Russian oil - which is the immediate cause of Russia cutting off the gas supply.
    I think such measures are far more likely to be effective than trying to halt or sanction purchases. The oil will find its way onto the world market anyway.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,909
    Leon said:

    @Leon - new, rather well timed, Rest Is History episode:

    Portugal: On The Edge Of The World
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Kf8htlqvg

    Obregado


    It is quite blissful here. The Costa Vicentina

    Much cooler than the Algarve coast. And much quieter. I am staring at an olive tree. Vacantly. All I can hear is birdsong and tinkling goat bells and the owner walking his enormous wolfhound around the lily pond. Seabirds wheel in a slant morning light. Coffee is brewed. I can just see the eternally troubled Atlantic across the vineyards. Time for a custard tart
    I’m waiting excitedly for the next instalment of “Leon, actually” where your manuscript blows into said Lilly pond and your attractive housekeeper jumps in to save it leading to you learning Portuguese and travelling back at Christmas to propose.

    Maybe it could be turned into a film.

  • A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137

    Fairly accurate cartoon.
    You are pronouncing nonsense, as ever ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    A stat that even @ydoethur (I think) didn't come up with.

    The person named the new leader of the #Tories later today & #PrimeMinister tomorrow, will be the first ever UK premier to have assumed office during the month of #September.
    https://twitter.com/GeorgianLords/status/1566691771765166081
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    edited September 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    Well I for one intend to make this sacrifice. For Britain. We need to pull together

    It’s not game changing and it’s not epochal and it’s just one citizen doing his bit for the nation. But I’m ready. I’m mentally prepared to fly 9000 miles south and sit out the winter by a sunlit rooftop swimming pool in soi Nana Bangkok, with its excellent papaya salads, so we can really sock it to Putin

  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.


    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver.
    Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Russia is almost completely dependent for gas sales on pipeline gas into Europe. There is a shortage of other customers. It can’t liquefy and ship easily, and it can’t build pipes into China any time soon.

    Even its oil sales are well down. Unfortunately that’s compensated by the high market prices it is earning, albeit lower than other oil benchmarks.
  • If anyone fancies keeping up with inflation for today then Liz Truss is still available at 1/100 with skybet!
  • moonshine said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
    Agree entirely with this. Last week I posted the link to a website that listed household items and how much energy they use. Turn off all the lights you like and any savings you make will be swamped by using the tumble dryer a couple of times a week.

    Basically anything that heats stuff - driers, ovens, immersion heaters, kettles etc are the real power drains. Avoiding using these can make a massive difference to your energy usage (and bills!) even in normal times.
    I thought BoJo told us to get new kettles
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    Well I for one intend to make this sacrifice. For Britain. We need to pull together

    It’s not game changing and it’s not epochal and it’s just one citizen doing his bit for the nation. But I’m ready. I’m mentally prepared to sit out the winter by a sunlit rooftop swimming pool in soi Nana Bangkok, with its excellent papaya salads, so we can really sock it to Putin

    Okay, I’ll join in your sacrifice - I’ll offer to buy a couple of beers, for every PBer that makes it out to the sandpit between October 1st and the Easter holidays. For Queen and country!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    .
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    Well I for one intend to make this sacrifice. For Britain. We need to pull together

    It’s not game changing and it’s not epochal and it’s just one citizen doing his bit for the nation. But I’m ready. I’m mentally prepared to sit out the winter by a sunlit rooftop swimming pool in soi Nana Bangkok, with its excellent papaya salads, so we can really sock it to Putin

    Britain stands with you in your determination to leave.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,206
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    I work as a head chef in a 16th century Peak District pub. We've tried so hard this summer to help people out, and haven't charged a penny for any kids meals. We've just had the utilities quotes, and we think that could be it. The pub could be empty for the 1st time since 1550.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BennyDreadful79/status/1566513173729054720

    I would start by charging for kids meals ! businesses are not charities , thats up to others to be that. There is somewhat of a heritage responsibility also to try and keep such an old business going imo. There are a surprising amount of people running or high up in charging organisations that are squimish about increasing prices
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    It would be a great help to the rest of us, so needs to be encouraged for the public good. I believe @MarqueeMark is leading the way.

    Meanwhile a fair few commentators say "We should reject the price mechanism and have rationing instead." Off to the gulag with them to repeat Econ101 until they can pass a basic economics comprehension test.

  • boulay said:

    Leon said:

    @Leon - new, rather well timed, Rest Is History episode:

    Portugal: On The Edge Of The World
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Kf8htlqvg

    Obregado


    It is quite blissful here. The Costa Vicentina

    Much cooler than the Algarve coast. And much quieter. I am staring at an olive tree. Vacantly. All I can hear is birdsong and tinkling goat bells and the owner walking his enormous wolfhound around the lily pond. Seabirds wheel in a slant morning light. Coffee is brewed. I can just see the eternally troubled Atlantic across the vineyards. Time for a custard tart
    I’m waiting excitedly for the next instalment of “Leon, actually” where your manuscript blows into said Lilly pond and your attractive housekeeper jumps in to save it leading to you learning Portuguese and travelling back at Christmas to propose.

    Maybe it could be turned into a film.

    Even that would be better than Love Actually.
  • .

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    1.01 vs 1.02

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    42 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    48 Rishi Sunak
    The last of the 1.02 has just been taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    46 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    A small amount if 1.02 is back,

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    Taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    65 Rishi Sunak
    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 768
    edited September 2022
    Foxy said:

    Any thoughts on the vote split on the leadership ballot, my instinct is Truss 64%, RS 34% and 1+% spoilt ballots... interested in others thoughts..

    A bit closer, I think. 60-38?
    66/32 for me. Tory leadership contests are never close.
    If the membership is as southern/London orientated as has been suggested I think Sunak will do better than expected.
  • moonshine said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
    Agree entirely with this. Last week I posted the link to a website that listed household items and how much energy they use. Turn off all the lights you like and any savings you make will be swamped by using the tumble dryer a couple of times a week.

    Basically anything that heats stuff - driers, ovens, immersion heaters, kettles etc are the real power drains. Avoiding using these can make a massive difference to your energy usage (and bills!) even in normal times.
    I thought BoJo told us to get new kettles
    That was only because he was fed up with being in hot water all the time :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022

    .

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    1.01 vs 1.02

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    42 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    48 Rishi Sunak
    The last of the 1.02 has just been taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    46 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    A small amount if 1.02 is back,

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    Taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    65 Rishi Sunak
    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    Hope the prod and the probe goes well!

    At some point, that 50 looks like it might be worth a fiver, for anyone who needs to level out their book.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Boris Johnson, the darling of so many Tory conferences, is set to skip next month’s gathering as he keeps a low profile in the first weeks after No10

    Writing + giving lucrative speeches the early focus instead. One ally: he wants to get “hay in the loft”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/04/boris-johnson-skip-tory-party-conference-keep-public-life-bit/

    Hypothetically, is it wise to have a huge bank balance just before a divorce?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    It would be a great help to the rest of us, so needs to be encouraged for the public good. I believe @MarqueeMark is leading the way.

    Meanwhile a fair few commentators say "We should reject the price mechanism and have rationing instead." Off to the gulag with them to repeat Econ101 until they can pass a basic economics comprehension test.

    Great if you want to save a few quid on air conditioning. Not so great if like most households by far your greatest energy cost is home heating and your house is poorly insulated, or you run a restaurant where the energy bill just exceeded the rental payments.

    Rationing is about managing demand by heavy industry during peak periods, as Germany is already planning to do.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    edited September 2022

    moonshine said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
    Agree entirely with this. Last week I posted the link to a website that listed household items and how much energy they use. Turn off all the lights you like and any savings you make will be swamped by using the tumble dryer a couple of times a week.

    Basically anything that heats stuff - driers, ovens, immersion heaters, kettles etc are the real power drains. Avoiding using these can make a massive difference to your energy usage (and bills!) even in normal times.
    I thought BoJo told us to get new kettles
    Actually on that subject we have bought a new kettle that measures 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 cups on the side and we are able to boil only for the amount required which does result in a saving

    It is only one thing, but we have also invested in a good quality air fryer, an airer rather than a spin drier, and reduced the boiler stat

    Lots of little things do have an effect
  • .

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    1.01 vs 1.02

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    42 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    48 Rishi Sunak
    The last of the 1.02 has just been taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    46 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    A small amount if 1.02 is back,

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    Taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    65 Rishi Sunak
    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
    Good luck
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    It would be a great help to the rest of us, so needs to be encouraged for the public good. I believe @MarqueeMark is leading the way.

    Meanwhile a fair few commentators say "We should reject the price mechanism and have rationing instead." Off to the gulag with them to repeat Econ101 until they can pass a basic economics comprehension test.

    Great if you want to save a few quid on air conditioning. Not so great if like most households by far your greatest energy cost is home heating and your house is poorly insulated, or you run a restaurant where the energy bill just exceeded the rental payments.

    Rationing is about managing demand by heavy industry during peak periods, as Germany is already planning to do.

    Because if we don't manage demand - there will be points over the winter where we may run out of supply.... Remember we don't have that much gas stored....
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 768
    And in the Times Geraldine Scott, Oliver Wright and Henry Zeffman report the same. They say:

    "Senior Tories lined up for appointments in Truss’s cabinet have been told “in no uncertain terms” not to scorn the idea that energy bills could be frozen.

    Industry sources said that a price freeze for consumers was “the only conversation that anyone was having with the government”, including discussions involving Kwasi Kwarteng, who is expected to be Truss’s chancellor.

    “The plan is to introduce some kind of artificial price cap for consumers combined with a mechanism for reimbursing suppliers,” one source said. “Plans are reasonably well advanced and involve not just civil servants but also ministers lined up for jobs by Truss.”

    If only consumers are helped then we are in deep trouble. A plan to reduce energy costs for commercial users is required urgently or the economy will shudder to a halt.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    UK Gas back up to £5.50/therm. It topped out at £7, previously.

    https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351153&span=1
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Secondary energy sanctions on any country still importing Russian crude. And a criminal ban on facilitation of the international trade of Russian crude and refined products, for example shipping services and insurance, letter of credit issuance or confirmation by anyone with a banking subsidiary or branch in the UK.

    The UK’s power in the worlds of finance and insurance mean we could apply this unilaterally and make a major difference to the international trade of Russian crude. The downside is that it would be inflationary.

    I’ve written to my MP four times on this matter without even a reply. He’s in Cabinet and has a usually excellent constituency office. I can only conclude the energy sanctions have been setup as a sham and the government is not interested in them actually working but just for show. Had we applied them as strong as we possibly could have months ago, we’d be that much closer to Russia running out of steam and the war ending.
    The G7 moved last week to cap the price members would [ay for Russian oil - which is the immediate cause of Russia cutting off the gas supply.
    I think such measures are far more likely to be effective than trying to halt or sanction purchases. The oil will find its way onto the world market anyway.
    The trouble is that India, China and the Gulf states are not in the G7! These countries import more Urals than they need for domestic demand, refine it into diesel, gasoline, jet etc… and are then sell it to us. It means Putin still gets his money and it puts European refiners at a competitive disadvantage vs those countries. The latter hasn’t mattered yet because of record crack spreads but these are contracting and will likely crash next year. I bet we’ll see some UK/ European refiners go bust because of this policy failure.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    NEW THREAD
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.


    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver.
    Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Russia is almost completely dependent for gas sales on pipeline gas into Europe. There is a shortage of other customers. It can’t liquefy and ship easily, and it can’t build pipes into China any time soon.

    Even its oil sales are well down. Unfortunately that’s compensated by the high market prices it is earning, albeit lower than other oil benchmarks.
    Receipts from gas exports to Europe are basically irrelevant to Russia’s govt finances. It’s a few percent of total exports. The real target should be oil. For a brief moment it looked like we might do it properly but the Greek veto on the shipping ban ruined it.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    The best way to reduce energy consumption in Britain this winter is to closely monitor the median temperature of your shower within the 34-36C range so you quickly think Fuck this and you fuck off to Bangkok til April

    I’ve done this before and you can achieve quite striking reductions in your heating bills. Sometimes up to 100%
    LOL. Ironically, if a couple of million people did just that, disappeared somewhere warm and left their heating on the minimum required to stop pipes bursting, it would indeed make a crucial few % difference to power demand in the winter.
    It would be a great help to the rest of us, so needs to be encouraged for the public good. I believe @MarqueeMark is leading the way.

    Meanwhile a fair few commentators say "We should reject the price mechanism and have rationing instead." Off to the gulag with them to repeat Econ101 until they can pass a basic economics comprehension test.

    Great if you want to save a few quid on air conditioning. Not so great if like most households by far your greatest energy cost is home heating and your house is poorly insulated, or you run a restaurant where the energy bill just exceeded the rental payments.

    Rationing is about managing demand by heavy industry during peak periods, as Germany is already planning to do.

    fyi gas is already physically rationed to heavy energy users on interruptible contracts - without government intervention.
    You appear to completely miss the point that prices are the best rationing mechanism we know of, which fully takes into account demand and supply. Off to the gulag!

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    The Daily Mail are still running with this huge news story no one else seems brave enough to touch.

    The BBC are paying comedians to mock Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. 😡

    It’s allowing us a unique inside into the minds of those who own and write the Daily Mail, what they think is right and wrong in this world today, and what really angers them.

    If the BBC were only to employ the talents that are Lee Hurst and Geoff Norcott the World would be a better place, if considerably less funny.

    Make UK Great Again!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited September 2022
    moved to new thread
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    LOL Nick, the UK was one of the strongest voices and strongest arms to help Ukraine in the first days of this crisis (*) (and before). And as for 'intellectual powers': remember your own words at the start of the crisis? And those of your dear friend?

    I'd rather have this government - flawed as it is - in power at this time than your mate. He would have got Covid utterly wrong, and he would have got Ukraine utterly wrong.

    (*) The energy crisis and the Ukraine crisis are utterly interlinked.
    So what you are saying is that the actions of the British government in Ukraine* have fed the causes of this energy crisis, and they didn't anticipate, plan for, or react to the problem? Sounds about right.

    *for the avoidance of doubt, I strongly support Ukraine and the actions taken to support it.
  • moonshine said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
    Agree entirely with this. Last week I posted the link to a website that listed household items and how much energy they use. Turn off all the lights you like and any savings you make will be swamped by using the tumble dryer a couple of times a week.

    Basically anything that heats stuff - driers, ovens, immersion heaters, kettles etc are the real power drains. Avoiding using these can make a massive difference to your energy usage (and bills!) even in normal times.
    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    .
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Secondary energy sanctions on any country still importing Russian crude. And a criminal ban on facilitation of the international trade of Russian crude and refined products, for example shipping services and insurance, letter of credit issuance or confirmation by anyone with a banking subsidiary or branch in the UK.

    The UK’s power in the worlds of finance and insurance mean we could apply this unilaterally and make a major difference to the international trade of Russian crude. The downside is that it would be inflationary.

    I’ve written to my MP four times on this matter without even a reply. He’s in Cabinet and has a usually excellent constituency office. I can only conclude the energy sanctions have been setup as a sham and the government is not interested in them actually working but just for show. Had we applied them as strong as we possibly could have months ago, we’d be that much closer to Russia running out of steam and the war ending.
    The G7 moved last week to cap the price members would [ay for Russian oil - which is the immediate cause of Russia cutting off the gas supply.
    I think such measures are far more likely to be effective than trying to halt or sanction purchases. The oil will find its way onto the world market anyway.
    The trouble is that India, China and the Gulf states are not in the G7! These countries import more Urals than they need for domestic demand, refine it into diesel, gasoline, jet etc… and are then sell it to us. It means Putin still gets his money and it puts European refiners at a competitive disadvantage vs those countries. The latter hasn’t mattered yet because of record crack spreads but these are contracting and will likely crash next year. I bet we’ll see some UK/ European refiners go bust because of this policy failure.
    Sure.
    But the idea of sanctioning them for buying Russian oil is impractical.
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    LOL Nick, the UK was one of the strongest voices and strongest arms to help Ukraine in the first days of this crisis (*) (and before). And as for 'intellectual powers': remember your own words at the start of the crisis? And those of your dear friend?

    I'd rather have this government - flawed as it is - in power at this time than your mate. He would have got Covid utterly wrong, and he would have got Ukraine utterly wrong.

    (*) The energy crisis and the Ukraine crisis are utterly interlinked.
    So what you are saying is that the actions of the British government in Ukraine* have fed the causes of this energy crisis, and they didn't anticipate, plan for, or react to the problem? Sounds about right.

    *for the avoidance of doubt, I strongly support Ukraine and the actions taken to support it.
    The 'cause' of this energy crisis is Russia withholding gas from other European states (not us directly), because we have the temerity of objecting to their hideous little 'special operation'. Russia could have reacted in many, many different ways.

    (Not that I disagree about our lack of energy security, a long-standing situation going back decades, and which I have wittered on about on here in the past...)
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