Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

1356

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
    It's highly unlikely to shift Ohio into the D column, but this CNN article on JD Vance's campaign is extraordinary: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html
    Neatly plated by the candidate, even as this is happening thanks to Biden’s Chips Act.
    …And the candidate himself has downplayed his connection to Biden, even as the President travels to Ohio next week for the groundbreaking of an Intel microchip processing plant, following the passage of a $52 billion bill to build semiconductors in America.…
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,317
    What do we think about the possibility of an SDP revival? I watched an interview with leader William Clouston and to be honest he was more impressive than Starmer usually is. Of course Starmer has been flirting with the red wall and putting union jacks on display but the Labour party still seems quite vulnerable.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    From RCP - no polls they reference in July / August pre-Trafalgar had Walker in the lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html#polls
    RCP is a terrible polling aggregator.

    From 538


    Of particular note is the Phillips Academy +2 Walker lead is a Registerd Voter poll and almost 100% of the time when you filter that down to Likely Voter it becomes more GOP leaning. For example the Beacon +12 at the bottom is a Registered Voter poll, they also show the Likely Voter filter applied which turns that +12 into a +5, it is a huge shift. As a result that Beacon +4 at the end of July is more like a multipoint Walker lead once the LV screen is applied.

    So Trafalgar is, if anything, rather conservative in only having a 1 point lead for Walker.

    Trafalgar, rather famously, got Georgia badly wrong in the 2018 midterms - giving Brian Kemp a Twelve (12) point lead over Stacey Abrams.
    Back to the original question - is Trafalgar so whacked out when it comes to their New York and Washington polls that they have jumped the shark, or is there something there? You would have to think the former but, if that is the case, it seems an absolutely bizarre decision on their part to publicise something that looks so obviously wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
    It's highly unlikely to shift Ohio into the D column, but this CNN article on JD Vance's campaign is extraordinary: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html
    Dr Oz continues to go to dark places and Fox willingly holds his hand
    https://twitter.com/billybinion/status/1566432474552483843
    I guess he's flying by the seat of his pants, where his brain isn't.
  • DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    Unusual name.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
    Speaking as a an ex-teacher,* this is a self-awareness that eludes rather too many people.

    *Autocorrect made that *pun teacher.* A rare moment of awesomeness from auto-correct.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    H emight be on this too ... https://www.cwgc.org/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    Possibly not for him though, given the reason he was on it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Your regular night time viewing.

    Russian ammunition depot reportedly on fire in Tomyna Balka, Kherson Oblast
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1566508073023377410
  • Interesting that Andrew Bridgen (soon to be ex-)MP says that he won the court case the judge says he lost.

    Very Trumpian of him. Which is certainly NOT a surprise based on his lurid Wiki entry!

    Perhaps he can head to Mar-a-Lardo to give 45 the benefit of his legal perspective?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    Unusual name.
    Not only his name but also, unusually, an explanatory plaque underneath giving brief bios of all the names listed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    Made you sound really judgey.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
    Speaking as a an ex-teacher,* this is a self-awareness that eludes rather too many people.

    *Autocorrect made that *pun teacher.* A rare moment of awesomeness from auto-correct.
    You’re certainly not an ex pun-teacher.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    What do we think about the possibility of an SDP revival? I watched an interview with leader William Clouston and to be honest he was more impressive than Starmer usually is. Of course Starmer has been flirting with the red wall and putting union jacks on display but the Labour party still seems quite vulnerable.

    Highly possible. You need a strong politician to deliver it though. So far as I can see there are very few new politicians around.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    Possibly not for him though, given the reason he was on it.
    Quite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
    Speaking as a an ex-teacher,* this is a self-awareness that eludes rather too many people.

    *Autocorrect made that *pun teacher.* A rare moment of awesomeness from auto-correct.
    You’re certainly not an ex pun-teacher.
    Perhaps I should give up teaching Politics, History, RS and Eng Lit and just concentrate on teaching punning.

    All those comedians who can't pun to save their lives, beating an IP address to my office.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    Durham's not far off that ideal though - on a residential weekend I once stayed in UCD hall of residence which used to be the bishop's palace. Very nice bats in the close of an evening.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    What time is the great Tory leader reveal, by the way?

    12:30 tomorrow afternoon I think.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    What do we think about the possibility of an SDP revival? I watched an interview with leader William Clouston and to be honest he was more impressive than Starmer usually is. Of course Starmer has been flirting with the red wall and putting union jacks on display but the Labour party still seems quite vulnerable.

    More chance of me winning the EuroMillions, marrying the Queen and being abducted by aliens from the Xatron System and taken to their homeworld, all on the same day. You might just as well advocate for a revival of the Whig Party (as someone tried and failed to do a few years ago.)
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
    Speaking as a an ex-teacher,* this is a self-awareness that eludes rather too many people.

    *Autocorrect made that *pun teacher.* A rare moment of awesomeness from auto-correct.
    Ex? When did you throw in the towel?

    I might actually be doing myself a disservice, because I've never been put in the position where I've actually been obliged to try to look after a child - I just fear that the stress and anxiety of it all would be too much and I might expire as a result before having the chance to complete the task. Anyway, the state of the nation would be much improved if a large fraction of the populace had their tubes tied.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Apropos of nothing, I’ve been in York this weekend, and unexpectedly found my great uncle’s name on a war memorial. Which was nice.

    H emight be on this too ... https://www.cwgc.org/
    He is. I knew it was the right chap from those details. It was the Micklegate Trinity Boys’ School war memorial that was moved into Holy Trinity Micklegate church when the school closed. I was poking round the church looking for some inspiration for my masters dissertation that I tentatively propose to do on Reformation Iconoclasm when all of a sudden I came across great uncle Walter.
  • Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    Georgia is going to be very interesting:



    I'm conflicted: I think incumbents tend to outperform polls and Walker is a weak candidate, but Georgia is the most tenuous of the Purple States for the Dems, and this should be a very difficult year for Biden's party. (Not too mention that Dems have tended to be slightly overstated in polls )

    Right now, I'm thinking the Republicans should be narrow favorites to win the Senate seat, but I'd expect Walker to be three to four points behind Kemp.
    There has been talk that Walker has shaken up his election team for the better and that is starting to have an impact. Let's see.

    The other thing, of course, is that last year it was said that the changes to the Georgian electoral rules were an assault on democracy and were an attempt by the Republicans to cheat in GA. Well, if you still believe that view (and I am not saying you do), then the obvious inference is the Republicans should start favourite to win the race.
    It's highly unlikely to shift Ohio into the D column, but this CNN article on JD Vance's campaign is extraordinary: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html
    Dr Oz continues to go to dark places and Fox willingly holds his hand
    https://twitter.com/billybinion/status/1566432474552483843
    Willy Horton in 3rd-millennium dress.

    It's three months AFTER he finally won the Republican primary, and Oz is only now starting to mend intra-party fences, appease the bone fide MAGA-maniacs, and thus consolidate the GOP base behind him.

    During the same period, Democratic nominee Fetterman has (virtually) leapt from his hospital bed to tearing Oz a new one on social media AND television, and raising money by the bushel.

    At the same time, the $$$ has NOT been forthcoming, for Oz and other Republican hopefuls, in part due to cost of living crunch, Trump fatigue/angust AND the incredible ineptitude of Sen. Rick Scott.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Boa tarde from the Costa Vicentina, where I am writing about the Rota Vicentina in the Casa Vicentina, for the Dildo Vicentina, a bi-monthly coastal stone sex toy magazine sent to Lusitanians

    I have had wine

    Glad to see you are having a refreshing break from AI is about to enslave us.
    Portuguese = only people to outdo us in the slave trading AND cod eating dept. Respect.

    There must be a German word for when you think of a really important thing and are amazed there isn't more research on the subject and think perhaps you should write a book about it because nobody else has and then you suddenly come across the utterly superb, makes all the points you've been making Slave Empire: How Slavery Built Modern Britain

    WOKE af, natch.

    That book is so woke that even the LRB gave it a shit review.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
  • So Gardenwalker, don't people (of sufficient income) still commute from to New York City from southeast Connecticut? And other place NOT in NYC MSA but within bounds of NYC CSA.

    As for total area & population of New York City metropolitan areas as defined by US Census Bureau:

    NYC CSA = 12,399.1 sq miles = 22,633,633 = 1,825.4 people per sq mile

    NYC MSA = 6,648.3 sq miles = 19,261,570 = 2,881.6 people per sq mile

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/33000US408-new-york-newark-ny-nj-ct-pa-csa/

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US35620-new-york-newark-jersey-city-ny-nj-pa-metro-area/

    NOTE that in addition to figures quoted, above links have maps showing extent of CSA versus MSA

    Thanks for confirming the number I originally posted.

    The CSA is too big. The MSA contains the classic commuting areas of Connecticut.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    Canterbury Cathedral Lodge, basically a conference centre with rooms within the precincts, is more or less that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    A formal dinner there would have had a slightly more haute cuisine menu
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Saw ET in IMAX yesterday.

    Never seen it before.

    If it wasn't for the blubbering kids in front of me would have been very enjoyable.

    I saw The Wrath of Khan last night at the cinema, it was fantastic.
    I remember going to see that in 1982 when it first came out.

    You've made me feel very old.
    I've loved that film since I was 5/6 around 1983/84 time.

    My father bought a video recorder and it came free with it, my father said in those days VHS films cost £99.99.
    Ah, then you're only marginally less ancient than I am.

    In other news, there's a school leaver about to start work on my team. I don't know his DOB, but I must've been working there now for roughly as long as he has been alive.

    The icy fingers of the Reaper aren't closing round my shoulder yet, but I can definitely hear his breathing.
    You know what really made me feel old the other, like proper old?

    I received an email from my bank telling me it was time I should investing/financial planning for grandchildren.

    I was like you're a bit too early for that, then it dawned on me, legally I could be a grandfather in around 4 years.
    Being homosexual I don't have this issue to confront.

    OTOH I shall be eligible for the Sun Life Guaranteed Over 50 Plan in around 4 years.

    That M&S gift card might come in handy for groceries, mind.
    Homosexual couples can have children too now you know and indeed in due course grandchildren
    Well, yes, I do get that but it's unusual for certain basic biological reasons.

    If you don't understand said reasons then I ain't explaining them. Besides anything else, you'd probably insist I was wrong and argue the toss with me anyway. It's kind of your thing.
    Are we talking sperm donation?
    Certainly not in my case. I've no intention of wanking into a pot and then spending my life savings trying to recruit a surrogate just so I can reproduce.

    I've enough self-awareness to understand that I'd make a hopeless parent.
    Speaking as a an ex-teacher,* this is a self-awareness that eludes rather too many people.

    *Autocorrect made that *pun teacher.* A rare moment of awesomeness from auto-correct.
    You’re certainly not an ex pun-teacher.
    Perhaps I should give up teaching Politics, History, RS and Eng Lit and just concentrate on teaching punning.

    All those comedians who can't pun to save their lives, beating an IP address to my office.
    I get a lot of that. So many of these young Berlin black guys think they've goethe decent line of patter going, but I soon persuade them that I can get them the headline Bild: a better Faust rap.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    538 forecast for Ohio:

    Vance (Rep) 52.3%
    Ryan (Dem) 47.7%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    From RCP - no polls they reference in July / August pre-Trafalgar had Walker in the lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html#polls
    RCP is a terrible polling aggregator.

    From 538


    Of particular note is the Phillips Academy +2 Walker lead is a Registerd Voter poll and almost 100% of the time when you filter that down to Likely Voter it becomes more GOP leaning. For example the Beacon +12 at the bottom is a Registered Voter poll, they also show the Likely Voter filter applied which turns that +12 into a +5, it is a huge shift. As a result that Beacon +4 at the end of July is more like a multipoint Walker lead once the LV screen is applied.

    So Trafalgar is, if anything, rather conservative in only having a 1 point lead for Walker.

    Trafalgar, rather famously, got Georgia badly wrong in the 2018 midterms - giving Brian Kemp a Twelve (12) point lead over Stacey Abrams.
    Back to the original question - is Trafalgar so whacked out when it comes to their New York and Washington polls that they have jumped the shark, or is there something there? You would have to think the former but, if that is the case, it seems an absolutely bizarre decision on their part to publicise something that looks so obviously wrong.
    "They"?

    Trafalgar is literally one bloke.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the US November elections, there is some very interesting polling coming out from Trafalgar (hear me out) in some of the states. For the NY Governorship, Trafalgar has it 48 v 43 for the Ds

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ny/new_york_governor_zeldin_vs_hochul-7749.html

    Meanwhile, in the Washington Senate race, the Democrats have only a +3 lead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

    The obvious reaction will be "It's Trafalgar". However, (1) these polls are not just 3 or 5 points difference from others, they are something like 15-20 points difference and (2) there have been a few other Trafalgar polls in other races (GA Senate / Governorship; PA Governorship / Senate) where the Trafalgar findings have been replicated in later polls.

    Any insights into what is going on? Even if you think Trafalgar is sh1t, that magnitude of discrepancy is massive.

    I don't believe Trafalgar conducts polls. There is no corporate entity. They don't have clients.

    I think they are entirely made up.
    Ok, let's run with that.

    538 rates them at A-. Doesn't mean they are right, 538 could be completely wrong. However, they include Trafalgar in their polls so they clearly don't believe they are fake.

    Let's take another example, the GA Senate race. The polls for July / August had Warnock between +3 to +10. Trafalgar then comes up with Walker +1. One or two days later, Emerson comes up with a +2 Walker lead. So is Trafalgar getting lucky with their guesses? Tapping into other polling companies' data?

    As I said. scepticism is natural but claiming they falsify their data is something else.



    What are you talking about? In July/August there were multiple polls with Waller in the lead. PEM had Walker ahead by 4 a full month ahead of Trafalgar's "poll".
    From RCP - no polls they reference in July / August pre-Trafalgar had Walker in the lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html#polls
    RCP is a terrible polling aggregator.

    From 538


    Of particular note is the Phillips Academy +2 Walker lead is a Registerd Voter poll and almost 100% of the time when you filter that down to Likely Voter it becomes more GOP leaning. For example the Beacon +12 at the bottom is a Registered Voter poll, they also show the Likely Voter filter applied which turns that +12 into a +5, it is a huge shift. As a result that Beacon +4 at the end of July is more like a multipoint Walker lead once the LV screen is applied.

    So Trafalgar is, if anything, rather conservative in only having a 1 point lead for Walker.

    Trafalgar, rather famously, got Georgia badly wrong in the 2018 midterms - giving Brian Kemp a Twelve (12) point lead over Stacey Abrams.
    Back to the original question - is Trafalgar so whacked out when it comes to their New York and Washington polls that they have jumped the shark, or is there something there? You would have to think the former but, if that is the case, it seems an absolutely bizarre decision on their part to publicise something that looks so obviously wrong.
    "They"?

    Trafalgar is literally one bloke.
    But a highly Cape able one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
    Still is given the recent rows over the Dean
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
    Still is given the recent rows over the Dean
    That's a bit of an understatement. Curious management structure, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/feb/04/oxford-college-dean-steps-down-after-settlement-reached-in-three-year-dispute
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Peter Hitchens has placed a bet on Rishi Sunak as next Tory leader at
    12-1
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1566423561585262594?s=20&t=1ZZ_bla8bQQf5RBKZLvSlw
  • nico679 said:

    Walker is a total imbecile and can hardly string a coherent sentence together and is too spineless to debate Warnock.

    The fact Walker is polling this well in Georgia shows the desperate state of US politics.

    Fact that a Yahoo can win plenty of votes in Georgia is NOT a novelty. Indeed, for most of the history of the Peach State, it's been a given. For just one example, see career of Eugene Talmadge:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Talmadge

    What IS novel about the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia, is that the White Yahoos of GA are for a BLACK candidate. AND that BOTH candidates are Black.

    In addition to voting rights for Blacks, the proto-wokery that was the US Civil Rights revolution of the 1960s created the foundation for Hershel Walker's political "career" in a very personal way: by desegregating the University of Georgia, where HW made his mark a as a big-time football star, and which launched his true career in the NFL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Note for @Leon , this is the vibe Biden was going for.
    https://www.starwars.com/databank/snokes-throne-room

    Like TSE, he’s just a Star Wars superfan.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    HYUFD said:

    Peter Hitchens has placed a bet on Rishi Sunak as next Tory leader at
    12-1
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1566423561585262594?s=20&t=1ZZ_bla8bQQf5RBKZLvSlw

    He could have got 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
  • So Gardenwalker, don't people (of sufficient income) still commute from to New York City from southeast Connecticut? And other place NOT in NYC MSA but within bounds of NYC CSA.

    As for total area & population of New York City metropolitan areas as defined by US Census Bureau:

    NYC CSA = 12,399.1 sq miles = 22,633,633 = 1,825.4 people per sq mile

    NYC MSA = 6,648.3 sq miles = 19,261,570 = 2,881.6 people per sq mile

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/33000US408-new-york-newark-ny-nj-ct-pa-csa/

    https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US35620-new-york-newark-jersey-city-ny-nj-pa-metro-area/

    NOTE that in addition to figures quoted, above links have maps showing extent of CSA versus MSA

    Thanks for confirming the number I originally posted.

    The CSA is too big. The MSA contains the classic commuting areas of Connecticut.
    NYC MSA includes ZERO Connecticut turf (as per map).
  • Andy_JS said:

    538 forecast for Ohio:

    Vance (Rep) 52.3%
    Ryan (Dem) 47.7%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate

    Pre-Labor Day forecast, which by definition is more prognostication that prediction.

    Note that Labor Day in USA (and Canada) is tomorrow, September 5.

    Traditional start to US political season, as opposed to the summer "silly season".

    IF a week is a looooong time in politics, nine weeks is even more so.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
    Still is given the recent rows over the Dean
    That's a bit of an understatement. Curious management structure, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/feb/04/oxford-college-dean-steps-down-after-settlement-reached-in-three-year-dispute
    It is not even the most serious scandal involving Christ Church at the moment

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/09/a-scandal-in-oxford-the-curious-case-of-the-stolen-gospel

    Still ongoing, I believe. Obbink is facing multiple lawsuits.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    The drought is so bad here in Alentejo the hotels are forbidden from washing towels too often and all the swimming pools are in peril of being closed

    It does feel a bit “apocalypse everywhere” right now

    Tho the gin and tonics are suitably huge
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
    Still is given the recent rows over the Dean
    That's a bit of an understatement. Curious management structure, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/feb/04/oxford-college-dean-steps-down-after-settlement-reached-in-three-year-dispute
    It is not even the most serious scandal involving Christ Church at the moment

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/09/a-scandal-in-oxford-the-curious-case-of-the-stolen-gospel

    Still ongoing, I believe. Obbink is facing multiple lawsuits.
    Having a rogue professor is (or can be) bad. Having a rogue dean is (almost always) worse.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    That's exactly what Christ Church, Oxford is.
    Wasn't too impressed with the accommodation there either. (A friend of mine went there and I visited. I had lunch in the hall with him - baked beans and overcooked cornish pasty.)
    Weird weird place when I was at Oxford.
    Still is given the recent rows over the Dean
    That's a bit of an understatement. Curious management structure, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/feb/04/oxford-college-dean-steps-down-after-settlement-reached-in-three-year-dispute
    It is not even the most serious scandal involving Christ Church at the moment

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/09/a-scandal-in-oxford-the-curious-case-of-the-stolen-gospel

    Still ongoing, I believe. Obbink is facing multiple lawsuits.
    Having a rogue professor is (or can be) bad. Having a rogue dean is (almost always) worse.
    It is actually unclear to me whether the Dean was "rogue".

    There was a bitter dispute. The Dean was suspended. Then (from the Guardian article):

    "The college hired Sir Andrew Smith, a retired high court judge, to chair a tribunal on the dispute. After a hearing behind closed doors on June 2019, Smith dismissed all 27 complaints against Percy and ordered his reinstatement. However, efforts by the governing body to remove Percy from his post continued.

    Assuming the external investigator did his job properly, it is not the Dean who was at fault.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lol - Binance have put up half a billion dollars of financing for Musk's Twitter deal.

    https://twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1566501766585352197
  • Alistair said:

    Lol - Binance have put up half a billion dollars of financing for Musk's Twitter deal.

    https://twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1566501766585352197

    Correction - would have.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,356
    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Lol - Binance have put up half a billion dollars of financing for Musk's Twitter deal.

    https://twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1566501766585352197

    Correction - would have.
    Binance is in the Current rather than Old column.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    Nigelb said:

    Your regular night time viewing.

    Russian ammunition depot reportedly on fire in Tomyna Balka, Kherson Oblast
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1566508073023377410

    On Ukraine, interesting Perun vid today.

    6 Months of War in Ukraine - Economics, Endurance & the Energy War
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4
  • Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Truss to get a bounce in London and the South relative to Johnson. Her national insurance cut plans for high earners and plans to cut corporation tax and reduce workplace rights and regulation will go down well with them.

    However in the Midlands, the North, Wales and the redwall seats I think the Tories may go backwards compared to where they were under Boris. There her more hardline Thatcherite economics and liberal approach to immigration will go down less well.

    It will therefore be a bit more of a post, middle class party under Truss and less working class than under Boris. Though not too much given her commitment still to a hard Brexit despite being a former Remainer

    Scotland is being abandoned, I see. I'm sure Mr Ross will be delighted with that wholehearted endorsement.
    Scotland I think will see little difference between Truss and Boris, though Truss might get a tiny bounce given Boris was never that popular there and she grew up in Paisley for a period
    Hmm, thanks for covering it. Though having a few years in Paisley doesn't guarantee anything at all.
    I worked in Paisley for 4 years. I’ve just about recovered.
    Stayed there in the worst B&B in the world. I was booked there on business by an admin person - never want to go there again. Which is a shame as it has a nice cathedral, museum, and so on.
    How can it be the worst in the world if it includes all those facilities ?
    Subjective. That B&B was that bad. Small jug of milk, looks as it as it's not big enough for the cornflakes, hesitate, gets snatched away 30 seconds later ...

    Edit. Abbey, not cathedral: sorry. Might pluck up my courage and try a day trip. Museum too, funded by Coats of the thread, not surprisingly.

    https://paisley.is/visit/paisley-abbey/
    https://www.paisley.org.uk/attractions/paisley-museum/
    My bad. I assumed the museum & cathedral were part of the B&B.
    Quite right - correct conclusion from my sloppy language.
    I think a B&B with a cathedral in would be a little close.
    Durham's not far off that ideal though - on a residential weekend I once stayed in UCD hall of residence which used to be the bishop's palace. Very nice bats in the close of an evening.
    I once stayed in a CofE training and conference centre in the Cathedral Close in Salisbury. Nice view, but the bells were loud. If out late at night they closed off the road with big gates and you had to let yourself into the Close with a Yale key.
  • The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Leon said:

    The drought is so bad here in Alentejo the hotels are forbidden from washing towels too often and all the swimming pools are in peril of being closed

    It does feel a bit “apocalypse everywhere” right now

    Tho the gin and tonics are suitably huge

    I thought you were due to stay in a billionaire friend's gaff at an exotic location in North America. Not Portugal.
  • The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Woke and alien invasion quite surprisingly not on the list. Perhaps the polling is done per person rather than per identity.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,356
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
    So a perfect companion for you then, no?!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
    More of this interminable flirting.

    It’s not supposed to be that type of site, my dears.
  • Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
    More of this interminable flirting.

    It’s not supposed to be that type of site, my dears.
    Do you come here often? :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    Andy_JS said:

    538 forecast for Ohio:

    Vance (Rep) 52.3%
    Ryan (Dem) 47.7%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate

    Which, I suspect, is about right.

    But that's a pretty awful performance from Vance in a state that Trump won by eight points, in midterms that should definitely favor him.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
    More of this interminable flirting.

    It’s not supposed to be that type of site, my dears.
    Certainly there is a markedly non-zero creepiness level about all thisl
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Guardian front page, Monday 5 September 2022: Truss will press on with tax cuts despite Tory warnings https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1566531786699689987/photo/1
  • Seattle Times ($) - New polling of WA shows what really divides us - column by Danny Westneat

    Politics these days is all about divides — cultural, racial, urban versus rural. There’s the growing gender gap in voting. But a new post-primary poll of Washington state highlights a different gap, one that now trumps them all (pun intended).

    It’s the diploma divide. . . .

    . . . in the only publicly released poll of the entire state since the Aug. 2 primary, the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates found that President Joe Biden, while of mixed popularity here, would beat former President Donald Trump in a rematch, by 13 points, 54% to 41%.

    The mid-August poll found a tighter race for U.S. Senate this November, with incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading GOP newcomer Tiffany Smiley 49% to 43%.

    These top-line results aren’t what stands out, though. The poll, like a few before it had hinted, highlights how Washington state is fracturing more than ever along an educational fault line.

    Trump leads in the poll among the roughly 55% of the state that lacks a college degree, by about 5 points. But Biden is ahead among the college grads and those with advanced degrees by a blistering 37 points, 66% to 29%. That’s an enormous diploma divide between the two parties of 42 points.

    This is a Republican poll, remember, and yet it shows, buried in the cross tabs, that only 14% of college grads in this state identify with the GOP. It gets more extreme when the gender and diploma gaps are combined. The poll found that only 10% of college-educated women in Washington think of themselves as Republicans, while 55% side with Democrats — a massive 45-point gap.

    An earlier poll by Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, for the local news site Crosscut in July, likewise found that 75% of college-educated voters here now hold negative views of the GOP — most of them deeply so.

    This sorting cuts both ways. An academic “we know best” sense often breezes from Democratic politicians, which may be pushing some working-class voters — including an increasing share of minority voters — into the arms of Republicans. This is new because the GOP was for decades the party of white people, big business and the rich. Call it the Trump realignment. . . .

    All of this is light years away from Barack Obama’s vision of a “purple state” America.

    Of course Obama undermined that with his professorial comments about how the embittered working class “clings to guns and religion.” Then came Trump, who made that a badge of honor. The setup is almost perfectly crafted for more polarization: We are now the Know-Nothings versus the We-Know-Better-Than-Yous.

    Your reaction to all this? It probably depends on whether you, yourself, are out there right now clinging to your electric vehicle and your college degree.

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-PPT-08-17-22.pdf

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-05-17-22-X-Tabs.pdf
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    In the final act of PB, Cyclefree and Leon, luckyguy and sandyrentool, nigellb and Malcolmg all walked off together as couples into the sunset, and kinabalu discovered that Leon was his father.
  • The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Those are astonishing figures. Climate Change third, above Health and Immigration?
  • The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Woke and alien invasion quite surprisingly not on the list. Perhaps the polling is done per person rather than per identity.
    They omitted to interview Vlad, LadyG and Bryonic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    The drought is so bad here in Alentejo the hotels are forbidden from washing towels too often and all the swimming pools are in peril of being closed

    It does feel a bit “apocalypse everywhere” right now

    Tho the gin and tonics are suitably huge

    I thought you were due to stay in a billionaire friend's gaff at an exotic location in North America. Not Portugal.

    Hopefully both
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,059
    FiveThirtyEight is giving the Democrats the edge in the Senate, Sabato's team is calling it even, and Politco is giving the Republicans the edge.

    (I would have to go over the races one by one before I would be willing to make a call -- and I don't plan to do that immediately.)
  • The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Those are astonishing figures. Climate Change third, above Health and Immigration?
    Comes from bathing in a Turd World Country.

    Drought, famine, pestilence. All you need now are four horses.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    538 forecast for Ohio:

    Vance (Rep) 52.3%
    Ryan (Dem) 47.7%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate

    Which, I suspect, is about right.

    But that's a pretty awful performance from Vance in a state that Trump won by eight points, in midterms that should definitely favor him.

    In addition to national landscape AND personal relative merits (Ryan) and demerits (Vance) of candidates, keep in mind these factors over next two months until Election Day:

    > course of the campaign in media and on campaign trail, focused on performance of candidates
    > relative funding/spending of Ryan, Vance AND their party & super-PAC backers
    > degree of enthusiasm gap and thus turnout, between Democrats and Republicans, with evidence of primaries & voter registrations suggesting that Dems have an edge as general election campaign commences.

    Note that Ohio is very diverse and exceptionally regionalized, on a par with Texas and Florida in number of major metropolitan area AND medium-sized cities scattered across the landscape. Unlike Pennsylvania for example, where chief divide is East versus West, further subdivided into urban/suburban versus small town/rural.

    One impact for Buckeye State campaigns, is that proliferation of media markets means major added expense for TV advertising. Another is substantial differences between regions with respect to economic interests and conditions, and also educational levels and ethnic mix, which in turn add to AND subtract from the final political equation.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Those are astonishing figures. Climate Change third, above Health and Immigration?
    I’ve travelled extremely widely this year. For the first time in my quite long life a lot of people are talking about climate change as a matter of fact not speculation, and volunteering opinions

    The droughts seem to be everywhere. In Rome the Tiber is 2 metres lower than it should be
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    FiveThirtyEight is giving the Democrats the edge in the Senate, Sabato's team is calling it even, and Politco is giving the Republicans the edge.

    (I would have to go over the races one by one before I would be willing to make a call -- and I don't plan to do that immediately.)

    I’m calling it zero change senate, and small double digit majority for gop in the house.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say it is feels very good to be doing what i do best: which is drinking and eating loads of fine wine and seafood on someone else’s shilling? In a really nice sunny place?

    It’s not for everyone, I admit, no more than artisanal coal mining or trendy igloo designing or midwifery in Gabon, but something in me just gels with the whole idea of going to gorgeous places for free to be stuffed with booze and lobster. Odd

    I guess it’s a calling. And I answered. Someone has to

    My calling - and it came to me in a flash just after I read your post - is to give up all this legal commentary and expecting integrity and competence from public servants - and be the mischievous, teasing companion of someone going for free to gorgeous places with lovely food and wine and gardens and other beautiful locations. The fun and arguments will fill INCHES of columns and I can indulge my hot-blooded Mediterranean self to my heart's content.

    I am so glad to have discovered this. I shall retrieve my passport, sunglasses and "How To Survive A Cricket Match" guide. A presto!
    Woman, you are shameless

    SHAMELESS
    More of this interminable flirting.

    It’s not supposed to be that type of site, my dears.
    Do you come here often? :lol:
    I’ve been lurking all day, but no one has posted anything worth commenting on.

    My dear gf has been moping after her beloved Arsenil we’re soundly beaten, so to drown her sorrows I have been serving her a new cocktail invention I call the Matheus dos Santos - sprite, sugar, cachaça - it’s essentially caipirinha - but todays cunning difference I added both orange juice and orange chunks for a double Dutch twist 😈

    Meanwhile York are ninth in the fifth tier conceded least number of goals, which is good for fresh promoted side. All good here. Though when I was away more than a month, somebody was looking after a friends dog, now the bedroom and kitchen smells a bit… dog.

    Somebody also left my solar panel out in the rain. But if you love them, you forgive them right?
  • Eco-zealots from Animal Rebellion claim they have 'cut off' milk supply to Midlands and south of England after more than 100 protesters target four major sites - as police at one blockade say they have arrested 23 people

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11179189/Animal-Rebellion-claim-cut-milk-supply-police-say-arrested-23-people.html
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Leon said:

    The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Those are astonishing figures. Climate Change third, above Health and Immigration?
    I’ve travelled extremely widely this year. For the first time in my quite long life a lot of people are talking about climate change as a matter of fact not speculation, and volunteering opinions

    The droughts seem to be everywhere. In Rome the Tiber is 2 metres lower than it should be
    You know all those dystopian future books, where what’s left of mankind battle for survival, after “something” not specific happened, that we all dismissed as fantasy…
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peter Hitchens has placed a bet on Rishi Sunak as next Tory leader at
    12-1
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1566423561585262594?s=20&t=1ZZ_bla8bQQf5RBKZLvSlw

    He could have got 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
    Hitchens wouldn't use such a new fangled thing as a betting exchange.

    I imagine he placed the wager over the counter with a crisp ten guinea note.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peter Hitchens has placed a bet on Rishi Sunak as next Tory leader at
    12-1
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1566423561585262594?s=20&t=1ZZ_bla8bQQf5RBKZLvSlw

    He could have got 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
    Hitchens wouldn't use such a new fangled thing as a betting exchange.

    I imagine he placed the wager over the counter with a crisp ten guinea note.
    He posts more on Twitter than almost anyone else so he's not exactly a digital idiot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976

    In the final act of PB, Cyclefree and Leon, luckyguy and sandyrentool, nigellb and Malcolmg all walked off together as couples into the sunset, and kinabalu discovered that Leon was his father.

    Would be remarkable - he's younger than me.

    I know!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    The cost of living is by far the biggest priority for the new prime minister, according to the public
    Of the following issues, which three do you think should be the top priority for the next prime minister? Please select up to three. %

    Cost of living: 74% say is a top 3 priority
    Economy: 47%
    Climate change: 28%
    Health: 25%
    Immigration: 20%
    Ukraine: 13%

    Brexit 9%

    Education 5%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/03/cost-living-should-be-top-priority-new-prime-minis

    Those are astonishing figures. Climate Change third, above Health and Immigration?
    I’ve travelled extremely widely this year. For the first time in my quite long life a lot of people are talking about climate change as a matter of fact not speculation, and volunteering opinions

    The droughts seem to be everywhere. In Rome the Tiber is 2 metres lower than it should be
    You know all those dystopian future books, where what’s left of mankind battle for survival, after “something” not specific happened, that we all dismissed as fantasy…
    Yes, on occasions it does feel like that

    I’ve spent nearly 4 decades travelling. Usually if you go to one place you get Omg it’s awful but then in the next country Whatever it’s all fine

    For the first time ever an emergency feels universal. And it’s the climate (coming right after the plague)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Eg this may be Europe’s worst drought in 500 years


    https://www.space.com/satellite-photos-europe-drought-worst-in-500-years
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    Seattle Times ($) - New polling of WA shows what really divides us - column by Danny Westneat

    Politics these days is all about divides — cultural, racial, urban versus rural. There’s the growing gender gap in voting. But a new post-primary poll of Washington state highlights a different gap, one that now trumps them all (pun intended).

    It’s the diploma divide. . . .

    . . . in the only publicly released poll of the entire state since the Aug. 2 primary, the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates found that President Joe Biden, while of mixed popularity here, would beat former President Donald Trump in a rematch, by 13 points, 54% to 41%.

    The mid-August poll found a tighter race for U.S. Senate this November, with incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading GOP newcomer Tiffany Smiley 49% to 43%.

    These top-line results aren’t what stands out, though. The poll, like a few before it had hinted, highlights how Washington state is fracturing more than ever along an educational fault line.

    Trump leads in the poll among the roughly 55% of the state that lacks a college degree, by about 5 points. But Biden is ahead among the college grads and those with advanced degrees by a blistering 37 points, 66% to 29%. That’s an enormous diploma divide between the two parties of 42 points.

    This is a Republican poll, remember, and yet it shows, buried in the cross tabs, that only 14% of college grads in this state identify with the GOP. It gets more extreme when the gender and diploma gaps are combined. The poll found that only 10% of college-educated women in Washington think of themselves as Republicans, while 55% side with Democrats — a massive 45-point gap.

    An earlier poll by Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, for the local news site Crosscut in July, likewise found that 75% of college-educated voters here now hold negative views of the GOP — most of them deeply so.

    This sorting cuts both ways. An academic “we know best” sense often breezes from Democratic politicians, which may be pushing some working-class voters — including an increasing share of minority voters — into the arms of Republicans. This is new because the GOP was for decades the party of white people, big business and the rich. Call it the Trump realignment. . . .

    All of this is light years away from Barack Obama’s vision of a “purple state” America.

    Of course Obama undermined that with his professorial comments about how the embittered working class “clings to guns and religion.” Then came Trump, who made that a badge of honor. The setup is almost perfectly crafted for more polarization: We are now the Know-Nothings versus the We-Know-Better-Than-Yous.

    Your reaction to all this? It probably depends on whether you, yourself, are out there right now clinging to your electric vehicle and your college degree.

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-PPT-08-17-22.pdf

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-05-17-22-X-Tabs.pdf

    Only a tiny percentage of people drive electric cars (as far as I know).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peter Hitchens has placed a bet on Rishi Sunak as next Tory leader at
    12-1
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1566423561585262594?s=20&t=1ZZ_bla8bQQf5RBKZLvSlw

    He could have got 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
    Hitchens wouldn't use such a new fangled thing as a betting exchange.

    I imagine he placed the wager over the counter with a crisp ten guinea note.
    He posts more on Twitter than almost anyone else so he's not exactly a digital idiot.
    No that's fair. I wouldn't describe him as a digital idiot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Only sensible option. But what type. Labours was expensive, open ended, a tad too universal for some but that laid off by partially paid for by windfall tax - the freeze pushed by the energy industry itself was even more expensive for the country to pay for. These freeze come in different flavours.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Hopefully it's more proactive than a "pay the price or you freeze" policy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Andy_JS said:
    I think it's great. One of the most iconic covers of all time, alongside Warhol's banana, Sgt peppers and Floyd's prism.

  • dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Yep - and now all those on here and elsewhere who criticised the universality of the Labour plan will have to eat their words.

    The only real difference between the two seems to be the Tories will be using taxpayers’ money to subsidise the energy companies, while Labour proposed levying a windfall tax.

  • dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Yep - and now all those on here and elsewhere who criticised the universality of the Labour plan will have to eat their words.

    The only real difference between the two seems to be the Tories will be using taxpayers’ money to subsidise the energy companies, while Labour proposed levying a windfall tax.

    Price freeze with no signal to reduce demand is not going to end well.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Seattle Times ($) - New polling of WA shows what really divides us - column by Danny Westneat

    Politics these days is all about divides — cultural, racial, urban versus rural. There’s the growing gender gap in voting. But a new post-primary poll of Washington state highlights a different gap, one that now trumps them all (pun intended).

    It’s the diploma divide. . . .

    . . . in the only publicly released poll of the entire state since the Aug. 2 primary, the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates found that President Joe Biden, while of mixed popularity here, would beat former President Donald Trump in a rematch, by 13 points, 54% to 41%.

    The mid-August poll found a tighter race for U.S. Senate this November, with incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading GOP newcomer Tiffany Smiley 49% to 43%.

    These top-line results aren’t what stands out, though. The poll, like a few before it had hinted, highlights how Washington state is fracturing more than ever along an educational fault line.

    Trump leads in the poll among the roughly 55% of the state that lacks a college degree, by about 5 points. But Biden is ahead among the college grads and those with advanced degrees by a blistering 37 points, 66% to 29%. That’s an enormous diploma divide between the two parties of 42 points.

    This is a Republican poll, remember, and yet it shows, buried in the cross tabs, that only 14% of college grads in this state identify with the GOP. It gets more extreme when the gender and diploma gaps are combined. The poll found that only 10% of college-educated women in Washington think of themselves as Republicans, while 55% side with Democrats — a massive 45-point gap.

    An earlier poll by Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, for the local news site Crosscut in July, likewise found that 75% of college-educated voters here now hold negative views of the GOP — most of them deeply so.

    This sorting cuts both ways. An academic “we know best” sense often breezes from Democratic politicians, which may be pushing some working-class voters — including an increasing share of minority voters — into the arms of Republicans. This is new because the GOP was for decades the party of white people, big business and the rich. Call it the Trump realignment. . . .

    All of this is light years away from Barack Obama’s vision of a “purple state” America.

    Of course Obama undermined that with his professorial comments about how the embittered working class “clings to guns and religion.” Then came Trump, who made that a badge of honor. The setup is almost perfectly crafted for more polarization: We are now the Know-Nothings versus the We-Know-Better-Than-Yous.

    Your reaction to all this? It probably depends on whether you, yourself, are out there right now clinging to your electric vehicle and your college degree.

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-PPT-08-17-22.pdf

    https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-05-17-22-X-Tabs.pdf

    Only a tiny percentage of people drive electric cars (as far as I know).
    Big Country News - Washington is the #4 state with the most electric vehicles

    https://www.bigcountrynewsconnection.com/news/state/washington/washington-is-the-4-state-with-the-most-electric-vehicles/collection_8fa1a37a-5fdb-5990-9cf3-ca33e5158b73.html#1

    SSI - but still adds up to a little over 50k statewide, or less than 1% of registered motor vehicles. Though higher in Seattle area.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Only sensible option. But what type. Labours was expensive, open ended, a tad too universal for some but that laid off by partially paid for by windfall tax - the freeze pushed by the energy industry itself was even more expensive for the country to pay for. These freeze come in different flavours.
    Well. The devil will be in the details of course.
    Broadly looks like it's the Labour/LD plan. Or the industry's.
    I may not be the best tipster on the site, but I know where my money is on this one.
  • dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Yep - and now all those on here and elsewhere who criticised the universality of the Labour plan will have to eat their words.

    The only real difference between the two seems to be the Tories will be using taxpayers’ money to subsidise the energy companies, while Labour proposed levying a windfall tax.

    Price freeze with no signal to reduce demand is not going to end well.
    Politically it will do the trick. Should deliver a very tasty bounce for Truss and the Tories.

  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    1.02 both in the last couple of minutes. Is this the leak?

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    34 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    38 Rishi Sunak

    1.01 vs 1.02

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.02 Liz Truss 98%
    42 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    48 Rishi Sunak
    The last of the 1.02 has just been taken.

    Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    46 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,477
    Leon said:

    The drought is so bad here in Alentejo the hotels are forbidden from washing towels too often and all the swimming pools are in peril of being closed

    It does feel a bit “apocalypse everywhere” right now

    Tho the gin and tonics are suitably huge

    I went to Evora out of season last year and was very taken with it. Old and grand and down at heel all at once. Very fine countryside within walking distance, particularly along the old roman viaduct - view from hill below. Realitively little English spoken, except among the students. Get a reservation at the Taberna Tipica Quarta Feira if you can - the only exceptional restaurant in town.



  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Yep - and now all those on here and elsewhere who criticised the universality of the Labour plan will have to eat their words.

    The only real difference between the two seems to be the Tories will be using taxpayers’ money to subsidise the energy companies, while Labour proposed levying a windfall tax.

    Price freeze with no signal to reduce demand is not going to end well.
    Prices and incomes policy.
    We're all 'arold now. Apart from the prostration to Maggie that is.
This discussion has been closed.