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Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Andy_JS said:

    New article in the Spectator.

    "I’ve seen the future of AI art – and it’s terrifying
    These images are disturbing, but they show us something important
    Sean Thomas" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-ve-seen-the-future-of-ai-art-and-it-s-terrifying

    They show us that those who knap flint dildos somehow have an insight into the minds of a great writer?
  • rcs1000 said:

    A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch with another 51 Starlink internet satellites at 10:09 p.m. EDT (0209 GMT) tonight. That is 3 minutes from now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7ZNGUOSftI
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NONM-xsKMSs

    SpaceX are so bloody reliable, and manage such an extraordinary cadence that they've made space boring.
    To be fair NASA are predictable even if they aren’t reliable
    That's massively unfair. NASA are massively reliable in most things, even when they do massively complex tasks. The Mars rovers are amazing feats that are mostly unheralded; the Ingenuity helicopter almost unbelievable. Running the ISS is a massive undertaking that is boringly routine.

    The problem with the SLS is not really NASA; it's the way NASA were told to build the rocket. They were not given a task: "Build a rocket to get to the Moon"; instead, they were told "Here's a kit of bits that must be used. Put them together to build a large rocket that can do *something*. We have not decided what that *something* is, but it might be something to do with asteroids."

    If NASA had been given the money back in 2005 (the start of the Constellation program) to build a large rocket capable of getting a lunar lander into lunar orbit, and been given free rein to design it, we would have had it years ago.
  • Any thoughts on the vote split on the leadership ballot, my instinct is Truss 64%, RS 34% and 1+% spoilt ballots... interested in others thoughts..

    52/48 to Fishy i think.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Daily Mail are still running with this huge news story no one else seems brave enough to touch.

    The BBC are paying comedians to mock Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. 😡

    It’s allowing us a unique inside into the minds of those who own and write the Daily Mail, what they think is right and wrong in this world today, and what really angers them.

    To be fair, SKS is such a humorless prick that mocking him is going to be no fun at all.
    Shouldn't be too hard- think the Diary of a Nobody, or Private Eye's John Major. Boring People are pretty easy to mock, or endue with secret strangeness.

    Private Eye's attempts at Johnson (People's Question Time, followed by Cabinet WhatsApp) never quite worked, because BoJo is already a comedic parody.

    Similarly Truss might be hard to reach satirically.
  • Interesting thread here, based on Kwarteng in the FT.

    https://twitter.com/benchu_/status/1566539237834608649?s=21&t=T3I89iya7Tz10vxA2vPEDQ

    We’re gonna tax-cut our way to prosperity, the BoE can worry about inflation, and hang the deficits.

    Austerity is dead.

    But so is levelling up.

    "Reagan proved deficits don't matter" — Dick Cheney.

    Unless there is a Labour government, of course.
    Cheney was wrong, deficits absolutely truly do matter.

    But deficit spending should be cyclical. Its standard to run a deficit during and after a recession, then recovering back to a balanced budget in times of growth before the next recession then restarts the cycle.

    In 2022 we're in the right part of the cycle for a deficit. We're recovering from the twin issues of the pandemic and the energy crisis, but thankfully the deficit had been cut every years for a decade before we went into this period.

    What screwed us royally in 2008 was that the deficit blew up before the crash, which meant that it then blew even further when the crash inevitably came.
    The pre-GFC deficit was small and irrelevant. Throw away your big book of George Osborne quotes.
    That’s bollocks - iirc it was a structural deficit of 7-8% of gdp. Just not sustainable
    You do not recall correctly. Pre GFC the structural deficit was around 3% of GDP.

    https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/brief-guides-and-explainers/public-finances/#:~:text=The 'structural' budget deficit is,level of employment and activity.
  • ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Heading towards parity as the market assesses Trussonomics.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Daily Mail are still running with this huge news story no one else seems brave enough to touch.

    The BBC are paying comedians to mock Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. 😡

    It’s allowing us a unique inside into the minds of those who own and write the Daily Mail, what they think is right and wrong in this world today, and what really angers them.

    To be fair, SKS is such a humorless prick that mocking him is going to be no fun at all.
    Shouldn't be too hard- think the Diary of a Nobody, or Private Eye's John Major. Boring People are pretty easy to mock, or endue with secret strangeness.

    Private Eye's attempts at Johnson (People's Question Time, followed by Cabinet WhatsApp) never quite worked, because BoJo is already a comedic parody.

    Similarly Truss might be hard to reach satirically.
    The Tories have successfully put themselves beyond satire. You have to admire them for that, really.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,909
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Don't freeze the price.

    Give everyone a council tax rebate, an uplift in benefit levels, some tax cuts. Whatever mix. But give people enough money to cover the expected uplift in the cap and then let the energy companies charge as per normal.

    Many people will cut demand and so keep some of the money for other matters.

    The demand cut is what we need for Winter 2022/3.

    Hmm.

    I kindof agree. Depends a lot on the details, but a blanket price cap at £1971/average (presumably also covering business at equivalent per kWh rates) seems like a bad way of doing it.

    As you said, we NEED people (and business, to an extent) to be reducing demand any way we can, without people freezing and businesses going bust - and the policy really should have that goal in mind. Capping at £1.9k/average ain’t going to achieve much demand destruction. Bad policy making.
    Blackouts are a possibility without a serious demand reduction drive.
    Seems wrong to “like” your post, but, eh, what the hell.

    I agree.

    Although. There are different ways of achieving demand reduction without a price signal. Nudging is one. Government and local authority buildings and street lighting, etc. is another. Rationing is a third.
    So if Mogg is energy minister then, you saying the sensible thing for him to do first is issue a work from home this winter edict to the civil service, and not have the heating, and all electrical gadgets, on in the offices?
    The first thing he should do is resign.

    He won't, because he's as unselfaware as he is stupid, but he should.
    I’ve heard from his footman that he’s going to lift the ban on whaling so that the blubber can be burnt by the peasants over the winter to produce heat and light.


  • ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    genuine question - what would sterling be doing if we were still in EU?
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    ping said:
    The way to reduce the market price surely has to be via a continent wide plan for demand management. Consumption has to fall back to meet supply or we are all just beggaring ourselves.

    Some systemic system of rationing is needed.
  • Boris Johnson’s allies have been warned that it would be “suicidal” for the Conservatives to try to force a new vote of confidence in Liz Truss in a campaign to get the outgoing prime minister back into No 10.

    Supporters of Johnson are thought to be plotting to immediately send letters to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, with the aim of forcing a vote before Christmas.

    One supporter said it would soon be realised that the party had lost a “first-rate” leader. Jake Berry, the Tory MP who has been tipped to become party chairman under Truss, the frontrunner throughout the contest, suggested that such an attempt to return to office by Johnson would destroy the party.

    Berry, who was one of Johnson’s first supporters when he ran for leader, told Times Radio that while he was not sure that any plot was “sexist, it’s certainly suicidal”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-alarm-at-suicidal-talk-of-a-boris-johnson-comeback-as-prime-minister-k6kj0j9r8
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    Foxy said:

    ping said:
    The way to reduce the market price surely has to be via a continent wide plan for demand management. Consumption has to fall back to meet supply or we are all just beggaring ourselves.

    Some systemic system of rationing is needed.
    Pretty much.

    The Norwegians and Qataris are laughing.
  • I think if all the winds blow in the right direction Liz Truss could just about win another general election for the Tories, but I am pretty confident she would be the last Tory PM to do that for a very, very long time. Her own policies will ensure it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    genuine question - what would sterling be doing if we were still in EU?
    The answer to that depends on how you weight the variables, which depends on your bias.

    You could take the rate on leaving day of both Euro vs Sterling and both vs Dollar.

    Take the rates today and look at % changes from leaving day and compare. For no good reason you could extrapolate the rate sterling would be if it had retained the same % value of the Euro it had on leaving day.

    Even choosing leaving day (and what time?) is a random selection.
  • ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    genuine question - what would sterling be doing if we were still in EU?
    Impossible to be sure but likely better, though not hugely so.

    I think one would say the same of most Brexit-related economic measures. Basically it hasn't been an economic catastrophe, but it hasn't helped.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


  • ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
  • dixiedean said:

    Looks like it's a price freeze.
    Times and Telegraph both saying so.

    Yep - and now all those on here and elsewhere who criticised the universality of the Labour plan will have to eat their words.

    The only real difference between the two seems to be the Tories will be using taxpayers’ money to subsidise the energy companies, while Labour proposed levying a windfall tax.

    Price freeze with no signal to reduce demand is not going to end well.
    Politically it will do the trick. Should deliver a very tasty bounce for Truss and the Tories.
    It will, in the short term, but it means the incentive to cut demand is reduced.

    At best, this means the UK will bid the price of scarce energy even higher, presenting HMG with a larger than expected bill. At worst, it means there will be interruptions to supply as we fail to meet demand.

    Germany appears to be following a similar approach. Makes me worry.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
    Both currencies have the same problem - only 85% ish of the energy we need this winter is available..

    Nothing is going to resolve the supply issue so demand needs to be sorted out
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    I suspect the general public will discover this issue on Wednesday night as Apple announce the price of the iPhone 14 pro is $1099 or £1199 once VAT is added.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    After the balloon goes up, perhaps Boris will be well placed to become King of Mercia, with "Get the Dykes Done" as his rallying cry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article in the Spectator.

    "I’ve seen the future of AI art – and it’s terrifying
    These images are disturbing, but they show us something important
    Sean Thomas" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-ve-seen-the-future-of-ai-art-and-it-s-terrifying

    They show us that those who knap flint dildos somehow have an insight into the minds of a great writer?
    A pathetic phallusy ?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
    Indeed it’s totally parochial when people calling talking about “a weak pound”. It’s fed induced dollar strength that is causing a global liquidity crisis. To name three, Egypt, Pakistan and Ghana have now more or less run out of foreign currency in their banking systems. And it’s going to spread and get worse as the tightening cycle continues.

    As for the Uk, given our apparently structural trade deficit, we will have to match Fed rate rises point for point (likely more!) just to stand still in inflation target, given a stronger dollar makes everything for which we have a net import requirement more expensive.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    eek said:

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
    Both currencies have the same problem - only 85% ish of the energy we need this winter is available..

    Nothing is going to resolve the supply issue so demand needs to be sorted out
    Europe wide rationing beckons as Russia confirms indefinite energy freeze

    These are very scary times especially for government's facing a war time crisis and it is time we recognised that the west is in a de facto war with Russia

    And in other news our neighbours first grandchild arrived in the early hours of yesterday and our daughter in law has gone into labour this morning with their third child, our 5th grandchild
    May I be the first to say congratulations! Enjoy the day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Foxy said:

    ping said:
    The way to reduce the market price surely has to be via a continent wide plan for demand management. Consumption has to fall back to meet supply or we are all just beggaring ourselves.

    Some systemic system of rationing is needed.
    Demand reduction through nosebleed prices which will fall on only two thirds of households and a semi-random percentage of industry does seem a remarkably inefficient policy.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

  • Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308

    eek said:

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
    Both currencies have the same problem - only 85% ish of the energy we need this winter is available..

    Nothing is going to resolve the supply issue so demand needs to be sorted out
    Europe wide rationing beckons as Russia confirms indefinite energy freeze

    These are very scary times especially for government's facing a war time crisis and it is time we recognised that the west is in a de facto war with Russia

    And in other news our neighbours first grandchild arrived in the early hours of yesterday and our daughter in law has gone into labour this morning with their third child, our 5th grandchild
    May I be the first to say congratulations! Enjoy the day.
    Seconded!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Even without that, we are, thanks to price rises already in the system.
    How much will we be able to rely on the interconnects with Europe (and vice versa) over the winter ?

    How much have we discussed any if this with our European neighbours during the leadership election ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited September 2022
    Deleted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    That is the more certain of the two professions of faith.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall
    of the room.
    LEDs use only about 80 watts. It’s relatively incidental
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    EXC: A minister's husband is facing questions after £24million of government contracts were awarded to a company where he is a non-exec director https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19706682/minister-husband-probed-government-contracts/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    I work as a head chef in a 16th century Peak District pub. We've tried so hard this summer to help people out, and haven't charged a penny for any kids meals. We've just had the utilities quotes, and we think that could be it. The pub could be empty for the 1st time since 1550.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BennyDreadful79/status/1566513173729054720
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    Any thoughts on the vote split on the leadership ballot, my instinct is Truss 64%, RS 34% and 1+% spoilt ballots... interested in others thoughts..

    A bit closer, I think. 60-38?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Is this how the Romans felt, when their toilets stopped working?

    That must have been quite a moment. 600 years of civilisation and ever improving sanitation comes to an abrupt end when the Ostrogoths hack the aqueduct and nothing is flushed. You stare down. Still not flushing. And then the central heating conks out

    You hope it’s a temporary glitch but no. Sorry. Same the next day. And the next. Cue 1200 years of western decline and medieval squalor
  • ping said:

    Foxy said:

    ping said:
    The way to reduce the market price surely has to be via a continent wide plan for demand management. Consumption has to fall back to meet supply or we are all just beggaring ourselves.

    Some systemic system of rationing is needed.
    Pretty much.

    The Norwegians and Qataris are laughing.
    To say nothing of the Aberdonians.
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    LOL Nick, the UK was one of the strongest voices and strongest arms to help Ukraine in the first days of this crisis (*) (and before). And as for 'intellectual powers': remember your own words at the start of the crisis? And those of your dear friend?

    I'd rather have this government - flawed as it is - in power at this time than your mate. He would have got Covid utterly wrong, and he would have got Ukraine utterly wrong.

    (*) The energy crisis and the Ukraine crisis are utterly interlinked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d
    The UK's relationship with Europe has not been settled in 100s of years, long before the EU. There has never been consensus, there likely never will. As such, Brexit will remain controversial, however hard folks try to vindicate it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    If I don’t think our government is up to snuff when it comes to catastrophe I will vote to throw them out and my fellow Britons will do the same

    What could I do about Ursula and Thierry? Nothing. Ever. They just go on and on

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Leon said:

    Is this how the Romans felt, when their toilets stopped working?

    That must have been quite a moment. 600 years of civilisation and ever improving sanitation comes to an abrupt end when the Ostrogoths hack the aqueduct and nothing is flushed. You stare down. Still not flushing. And then the central heating conks out

    You hope it’s a temporary glitch but no. Sorry. Same the next day. And the next. Cue 1200 years of western decline and medieval squalor

    If that does happen, the new right will take much of the credit as they devalued the concept of objective truth and poured petrol on culture wars for short-term personal gain.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    It seems pretty obvious it’s better to address the winter energy crisis on a continent-wide basis rather than with each country going its own way (which would essentially mean German demand determining whether we get to heat our homes this winter). So the Brussels proposal looks like a decent start. The US needs to help Europe too, as much as it is able. In return Europe needs to continue helping Ukraine.

    This is a war, and a pretty foundational one too, and wars require continental alliances.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants leading the country?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit will remain controversial, however hard folks try to vindicate it.

    The people who voted against it, know it's a disaster.

    Many of the people who voted for it, know it's a disaster, and are not shy about saying so.

    Then there's Sean
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    .
    moonshine said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this
    basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    Chris’s comment gives hope that with an effective public education campaign people can save quite a bit of energy without really noticing. It astonishes me with prices going where they are that we still get posters here almost completely ignorant of what they can do.
    It will require either price incentives, or supply restrictions, though.

    On the former, the best idea I've seen for households is a price cap on a limited number of units per month, the price increasing as usage goes above a certain amount.

    That still doesn't address those still on fixed rates at much lower prices.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit will remain controversial, however hard folks try to vindicate it.

    The people who voted against it, know it's a disaster.

    Many of the people who voted for it, know it's a disaster, and are not shy about saying so.

    Then there's Sean
    Sean's having a phase of activity because he's worried about Truss. He can foresee the dying of the light and is raging.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    TimS said:

    It seems pretty obvious it’s better to address the winter energy crisis on a continent-wide basis rather than with each country going its own way (which would essentially mean German demand determining whether we get to heat our homes this winter). So the Brussels proposal looks like a decent start. The US needs to help Europe too, as much as it is able. In return Europe needs to continue helping Ukraine.

    This is a war, and a pretty foundational one too, and wars require continental alliances.

    The polling upthread on “most important issue” seems typically contradictory, where people have not put two and two together that the cost of living / economy problem is unlikely to be satisfactorily resolved until Ukraine wins the war and there is refine change in Moscow.

  • A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137
  • A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137

    Fairly accurate cartoon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    ping said:

    Sterling in the shitter.

    $1.145

    Good morning

    Breaking news v Bloomberg UK - euro slides to lowest in 20 years

    This is not just a sterling problem
    It’s a strong dollar problem* caused primarily by the reluctance of other developed economy central banks to keep pace with the interest rate rises of the Federal Reserve, and secondarily by the flight to the dollar as dollar-denominated commodity prices rise and become unstable.

    (*not a problem for me, I get paid in US$ and have a mortgage in £)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975

    A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137

    The curse of False Equivalence strikes again. World a much better place if it were made illegal.
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    It's already happened abroad, regardless of any new intervention by Brussels. For months European governments have been putting in place comprehensive plans to effect a reduction in energy consumption and ramp up storage in preparation for the winter. Those measures have already had some significant effect. What is striking is to compare and contrast the comprehensive measures in Germany with the inaction here, which long preceded the paralysis of the Conservative leadership contest. Measures to constrain and manage UK demand appear to be totally lacking.

    I don't really care whether further initiatives are led by Brussels or by individual European governments acting on their own initiative. The UK should be capable of being part of that regardless. The reality is that we should be on a wartime footing, firstly because the scale of the crisis warrants that and secondly because this is wartime and the UK is facing the consequences of making the right moral choices.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    edited September 2022

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Congratulations. To be named 'Liz' perhaps on this auspicious day?

    However dark the world may get, the newborn child reminds us that there is hope.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,975
    TimS said:

    It seems pretty obvious it’s better to address the winter energy crisis on a continent-wide basis rather than with each country going its own way (which would essentially mean German demand determining whether we get to heat our homes this winter). So the Brussels proposal looks like a decent start. The US needs to help Europe too, as much as it is able. In return Europe needs to continue helping Ukraine.

    This is a war, and a pretty foundational one too, and wars require continental alliances.

    Exactly. All the big important issues need collectivist not national responses.
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants leading the country?
    This is positively dystopian Nick. Politicians have got us into this; the war and accompanying energy crisis have been of their choosing. Now they want vast powers over businesses and individuals to 'solve' a problem they created?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d


    That's odd, I'm sure someone once told me that predicting the future was a mug's game.

    Also , the "you'll all thank us in the future" is something I've heard my eccentric Brexit aunt say. As if it's a fairly ugly wedding gift that isn't any use or ornament, but can't go down the charity shop because it would cause offence.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d
    Deluded.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the time being are at least as effective as those of the West. What policy can change that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Foxy said:

    ping said:
    The way to reduce the market price surely has to be via a continent wide plan for demand management. Consumption has to fall back to meet supply or we are all just beggaring ourselves.

    Some systemic system of rationing is needed.
    Yes, the only sensible plan is for all the affected European countries to work together on supply and demand for the winter.

    Sadly, the EU bureaucracy see the opportunity for a power grab, they’re the last organisation that should be involved in any discussions.
  • It turns out that Ségolène Royal has some very dodgy views too. She claims that Bucha was propaganda to stop peace negotiations and “the Americans don’t hide it”.

    @visegrad24
    Former pres. candidate of the socialist party & Paris mayor Ségolène Royal says she’s unsure whether Russia commits war crimes in 🇺🇦 as Zelensky “does propaganda through fear”

    She questions the strike on the maternity ward in Mariupol & the Bucha Massacre


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1566470984156299268
  • Jonathan said:

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Congratulations. To be named 'Liz' perhaps on this auspicious day?

    However dark the world may get, the newborn child reminds us that there is hope.
    Thanks Jonathan and there has to be hope even in the darkest hours
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    It seems pretty obvious it’s better to address the winter energy crisis on a continent-wide basis rather than with each country going its own way (which would essentially mean German demand determining whether we get to heat our homes this winter). So the Brussels proposal looks like a decent start. The US needs to help Europe too, as much as it is able. In return Europe needs to continue helping Ukraine.

    This is a war, and a pretty foundational one too, and wars require continental alliances.

    The polling upthread on “most important issue” seems typically contradictory, where people have not put two and two together that the cost of living / economy problem is unlikely to be satisfactorily resolved until Ukraine wins the war and there is refine change in Moscow.

    I think the link will become much clearer this week given the relationship to the Nordstream 1 closure.

    Until recently much of the inflation in the system was still a legacy of supply chain strains as the world emerged from Covid.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Wonderful! Many congratulations - purs so much else into perspective, doesn't it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Congratulations Sir, and best wishes to mother and baby.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Chile says *Fuck off, Wokeness*


    “Chile votes overwhelmingly to reject new, progressive constitution
    With 96% of the ballots counted, the rejection camp has 62% and the approve team accept defeat in bid to replace Pinochet-era settlement”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/05/chile-votes-overwhelmingly-to-reject-new-progressive-constitution
  • Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Wonderful! Many congratulations - purs so much else into perspective, doesn't it?
    Thanks Nick and It really does
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Jonathan said:

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Congratulations. To be named 'Liz' perhaps on this auspicious day?
    What a terrible burden to bestow upon a child.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Leon said:

    Chile says *Fuck off, Wokeness*


    “Chile votes overwhelmingly to reject new, progressive constitution
    With 96% of the ballots counted, the rejection camp has 62% and the approve team accept defeat in bid to replace Pinochet-era settlement”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/05/chile-votes-overwhelmingly-to-reject-new-progressive-constitution

    That’s close to an AV level of rejection!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d


    That's odd, I'm sure someone once told me that predicting the future was a mug's game.

    Also , the "you'll all thank us in the future" is something I've heard my eccentric Brexit aunt say. As if it's a fairly ugly wedding gift that isn't any use or ornament, but can't go down the charity shop because it would cause offence.
    That’s a laughably poor analogy. A 14-year-old’s level of English. I kind of get what you’re laboriously trying to say, but you certainly haven’t said it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d


    That's odd, I'm sure someone once told me that predicting the future was a mug's game.

    Also , the "you'll all thank us in the future" is something I've heard my eccentric Brexit aunt say. As if it's a fairly ugly wedding gift that isn't any use or ornament, but can't go down the charity shop because it would cause offence.
    I vote that best Brexit analogy to date.
    Imperfect though it is.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
  • @Leon - new, rather well timed, Rest Is History episode:

    Portugal: On The Edge Of The World
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Kf8htlqvg
  • Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Baby girl born at 7.50am - our 5th grandchild and we feel so blessed

    Congratulations. To be named 'Liz' perhaps on this auspicious day?
    What a terrible burden to bestow upon a child.
    You are quite pathetic
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    Any thoughts on the vote split on the leadership ballot, my instinct is Truss 64%, RS 34% and 1+% spoilt ballots... interested in others thoughts..

    A bit closer, I think. 60-38?
    66/32 for me. Tory leadership contests are never close.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In time Brexit will be completely vinidicated

    In time, we're all dead, Leon.
    It will likely be vindicated long before I’m dead. Not sure about you, but fingers x’d


    That's odd, I'm sure someone once told me that predicting the future was a mug's game.

    Also , the "you'll all thank us in the future" is something I've heard my eccentric Brexit aunt say. As if it's a fairly ugly wedding gift that isn't any use or ornament, but can't go down the charity shop because it would cause offence.
    That’s a laughably poor analogy. A 14-year-old’s level of English. I kind of get what you’re laboriously trying to say, but you certainly haven’t said it
    Yes, but when it comes to Brexit, we know that you are a Birther.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    edited September 2022

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants leading the country?
    UvdL’s abilities were directly tested against Boris with vaccine procurement. It was no contest.

    This is by the way the same UvdL that served 14 years in Merkel’s Cabinet, with six years as Sec of Defence. During which time the German government deeply embedded their dependency (and by extension all of Europe’s) on Russian gas, despite all the evidence that it was a very stupid thing to do.

    Sometimes it pays to get your head out your arse and admit that a wider world view you hold is flawed, in this case namely that the European body politic has run energy and defence policy anywhere close to competently.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137

    Fairly accurate cartoon.
    There were very similar cartoons doing the rounds in the USA during the early years of WW2. You know, just an imperial proxy war between Britain and Germany.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Hoist, petard...

    Ukrainian Army strikes Russian ammunition depot located in top Kherson collaborator's firm

    Oleshky mayor says that the depot was located in a construction enterprise belonging to top Kherson Gauleiter Volodymyr Saldo

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1566687348192059393
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    @Leon - new, rather well timed, Rest Is History episode:

    Portugal: On The Edge Of The World
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Kf8htlqvg

    Obregado


    It is quite blissful here. The Costa Vicentina

    Much cooler than the Algarve coast. And much quieter. I am staring at an olive tree. Vacantly. All I can hear is birdsong and tinkling goat bells and the owner walking his enormous wolfhound around the lily pond. Seabirds wheel in a slant morning light. Coffee is brewed. I can just see the eternally troubled Atlantic across the vineyards. Time for a custard tart
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    Yes. The UK govt (when we finally have one) will need to do the same thing but at least those powers will be held closer to the demos than if it was EC.

    I do have to wonder if in the uk context we can quite easily cut demand by 10-15%. I get the feeling that most households haven’t ever given a second thought about their energy consumption and are only now devising solutions such as only heating the room you’re in, warm your person not the space, seeking out the non-led bulbs etc… We don’t have tonnes of heavy industry like Germany that uses energy efficiently and can’t cut without cutting production, but we do have high household use that can cut use without harming standard of living.

    Maybe people could really make a sacrifice and go back to TV sets that didn't cover an entire wall of the room.
    Compared to the rest of household energy use, that's negligible.
    Plus, any energy used ends up heating the (living) room, anyway, so it’s not really wasted.

    It’s incredible how few people seem to grasp this basic science, reading forums/Twitter.
    If the figures I've seen in several online sources are to be believed, an easy way to reduce energy (and water) usage is to spend less time in the shower. They quote an average shower time of 7.5 minutes. What are they doing in there? We timed ours for a couple of days and are averaging less than half that (yes we do wash our hair). Not sure how much would be saved by a family of 4 cutting total showering time by 4 minutes each per day but if as a nation we need to reduce consumption by 15% this winter this would help.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants leading the country?
    Mostly those Civil Servants are revising their CVs and jockeying for the jobs that still exist after the 20% cull. Their minds are not on the job.

    The demand management only works to control prices if everyone does it. It is not "Brussels dictating" it is the nations of Europe collaborating on a plan for mutual support.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    TimS said:

    A Ukrainian refugee in Germany found this image in her school textbook on international politics:

    image

    https://twitter.com/alicebota/status/1566517741703643137

    Fairly accurate cartoon.
    There were very similar cartoons doing the rounds in the USA during the early years of WW2. You know, just an imperial proxy war between Britain and Germany.
    Seems quite anti US.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Reasons for Brexit, number 297 in a series

    These proposals would be extremely controversial coming from a democratic government. But from an unelected bureaucracy, that cannot be checked by public opinion?


    If Norway follows the same rules we are in deep do do.
    Possibly. But at least we are democratically in charge of our own response to disaster

    Brussels wants to assume wartime powers over all of European business. Imagine how that would feel is we were still members
    It would feel as though someone was taking the global event of the crisis seriously. Do you feel confident that the Westminster government, on its own and with the limited intellectual powers at its disposal, is able to deal with the issue successfully?
    Come on Nick, civil servants run the country, by and large.
    And frankly you are revealing your Eurocentric bias with that level of snark. I assume you rate UvdL up there on the intellect front?
    UvdL vs Boris? Absolutely. But the point is that the crisis calls for continent-wide measures, not individual countries ineffectively doing their own thing. "Brussels" is shorthand for the 27 Governments working with the Commission. That's what's needed, and we would be part of the effort if we want to influence what actually happens.

    Also, if civil servants run the country, then leon's point that he can't vote UvdL out is
    irreelevant, innit? Can you even name, let
    alone vote out, the (say) British civil servants
    leading the country?
    We are in something close to WW3 (or at least Cold War II) and this winter is the moment Putin has the greatest possible leverage from his energy weapon. As you say, energy security policy needs to be continent-wide. Indeed NATO alliance-wide. And it needs to involve gas rationing.

    Every time a country goes its own way and the market price jumps, Russia gets more cash for ammo to fire at Ukrainian cities.
    It does appear that Putin's sanctions for the
    time being are at least as effective as those of
    the West. What policy can change that?

    In some ways it’s quite simple, just painful. Whatever reduces the amount of money Russia earns from hydrocarbons defeats Russia.

    Short term acute demand reduction, short to medium term alternative suppliers ramping up production, medium to long term maximising renewable output.
    There seem to be no shortage of customers for Russia's hydrocarbons. This is not a policy within the power of the west to deliver. Unless you can think of a way to change that, there will need to be another approach.
    Well with gas, it's quite challenging for Russia to deliver gas to anywhere but the west economically. The pipelines don't really go there at present.
    And with oil, it's quite challenging in the long term for Russia to deliver oil economically. People will buy it, but not necessarily, in the long term, at a price which the Russians can afford to sell it at.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    Some good news, but very anecdotal.

    Wife and I managed to reduce consumption of air conditioning by 12% last month - by simply paying attention to it, not cooling the whole house, switching off when going out, getting rid of the duvet for sheets, and wearing cotton house clothes.

    Lots of small things, adding up to a reasonable difference overall.

    We did it, because the previous month’s bill was £150!
This discussion has been closed.