The latest polling is giving us widely different numbers – politicalbetting.com

It is very hard to draw any conclusions from the most recent polling seen in the Wikipedia table above. The reason, of course, is the very wide differences the various firms are showing.
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One of the early lessons I learned on PB was from Sir Bob Worcester who told me to watch the share of the vote, not the lead.
1.13 Liz Truss 88%
8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
Next Conservative leader
1.13 Liz Truss 88%
8.2 Rishi Sunak 12%
The simplistic approach for Red states would be to use ballot initiatives to get a direct vote on the issue.
However there is a history of voters backong Dem positions on ballot initiatives but then GOP politicians for Congress/President. The most recent example was the 15 dollar minimum wage referendum in Florida - voted for the wage increase then voted for the Presidential candidate who opposed the wage increase.
I think though both parties have a fairly soft edge to their share hinging on certainty to vote.
And as if to confirm the link, a DDoS takes out Taiwan's presidential website ahead of senior politico's arrival
https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/03/pelosi_taiwan_visit_cyberattacks/
PM Truss needs to push the Tory number to 40. That will mean taking the vast majority of Don't Knows back into the Tory fold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Rich,_1st_Baron_Rich
And *if* the new Conservative leader can attract back a lot of those voters, Starmer's job is suddenly much harder again.
IMO Starmer really needs to set forth a positive vision and policies, and have his shadow cabinet pound out that vision and policies at every interview.
Instead, Labour seems internally consumed by the strikes.
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4054209/fields-shouldnt-solar-panels-truss-vows-crackdown-renewables-development
Surely it's more a question of her seeking support from fossils?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html
Looking back through that data it's notable how wet the month of July was while Brown was PM. 2007 191% of average, 2008 147%, 2009 195%. What a dreary run.
Telegraph
FFS
It is in the South where opposition to abortion is highest. Plus it will be the governor and state legislature who will determine that state's position on abortion now the US SC has ruled there is no constitutional right to an abortion
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiatives_and_referendums_in_the_United_States
One - most working people aren't supporting the strikers. Most working people are not union members and see those who are as a bit entitled. So to go out and openly support them is to stand against most working people and thus Labour voters.
Two - most of the unions are unaffiliated to Labour and openly against Starmer. Why do politically difficult things when the people you would be doing it for oppose you?
Labour is no longer the party of the trade union movement. So many have become unaffiliated, a few are openly hostile, a couple of those remaining in the camp (Unite especially) need to be ejected. If the hard left unionists dislike this reality, why did they all disaffiliate and spin out into bullshit like TUSC?
walk upon England's mountains green?
And was the solar panel pod
on England's pleasant pastures seen?
And did the ghastly wind turbine
shine forth upon our clouded hills?
I've no idea to what extent the cracks pose a risk; but it becomes a trade-off of the risks of a reactor having a serious issue compared to the risks of going short of that much power this winter. I have zero clue on that.
I'm in favour of nuclear power, but let's not muck around with it.
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1554668357131149312?t=HOf8w8CFKkAEUwzaqK0BnA&s=19
So definitely a motivation to vote. In KS only affiliated voters can vote in the Primaries, so a significant number of independents turned out to maintain abortion rights.
The GOP will not ask the people specifically on the issue where it is not part of the state constitution as it was in Kansas
And yesterday's contretemps indicate she still hasn't learned to think before pronouncing.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11074443/Why-useful-idiots-New-York-Times-putting-boot-Brexit-Britain.html
So for another example Donald Trump using his personal account rather than the one set up for a US President to use (obviously if he was re-elected he would be using the US President account this time round).
It might be helpful instead of ignoring the Don't Knows, or redistributing them on the basis of the way they voted last time, to include an actual figure.
AIUI, at the moment, if a polling company holds the thousand voters and only 60% of them express a preference, then we get the preferences of those 60%. It will be interesting to know how many people just don't know!
Spiralling inflation, crops left in the field and travel chaos: 10 reasons Brexit has been disastrous for Britain - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/03/spiralling-inflation-crops-left-in-the-field-and-travel-chaos-10-reasons-brexit-has-been-disastrous-for-britain
I'd love to dig out choice quotes but there's so many, and we 've all heard the arguments many times before, so I won't waste my time. Except for this, which is perhaps becoming the default opinion outside the diehards: 'She sighs, and then echoes something I have heard from just about everyone I have spoken to: a sense of rules, arrangements that make no sense, and are upturning people’s lives. “It’s such a waste of everyone’s time,” she says. “Why do it?”'
The answer, of course, is to allow the Tories the go even further in dividing and wrecking the UK, for the continued enrichment of their super-wealthy donors. A venal truly cosmopolitan elite, proper citizens of nowhere, for whom the UK is nothing but a tempting resource to be plundered.
The question is what it would look like if there was a general election tomorrow and the choice was imminent.
My guess is the Tory vote share would be 36-38%.
When he passed it wasn't public knowledge that he was a paedo, that came out post-mortem. That a politician would say RIP to a celebrity is neither here nor there.
What's far more concerning is those who did know or see the evidence he was a paedo but did nothing about it, or covered it up.
It was October 29th 2011, which was apparently the day he died. What did the papers say the next day?
This is what the Guardian had to say:
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2011/oct/30/jimmy-savile-top-of-pops-dead
And the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15053431
The principle should be simple - people deserve a pay rise. But we can't give everyone a pay rise so instead we go after the driver of the need for such rises and squash the energy bill spike.
If she'd tried to delete it from her tweet history then it would only have drawn attention to it.
Edit: Yes. Yes there is. https://mobile.twitter.com/deletedbymps
It was one of the first Twitter faux-pas, and he had to recant the change and set up a new account (without 250k followers) for his personal campaign use.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/mar/20/boris-johnson-mayoral-twitter-account
Since then, politicians have had to keep one account for their personal use, and institutions keep another for elected officials to use in their role.
Why Does It Always Rain on Me?
Is it because I lied when I was seventeen?
Why Does It Always Rain on Me?
Even when the sun is shining
I can't avoid the lightning
Sums up his Premiership really.
You cannot imagine the frothing rage the Sun, Mail and Express would get themselves into if that tweet had been from Starmer?
And I always thought you had a good imagination... but maybe that was just when it came to sunlit Brexit uplands ;-)
‘When he passed’ is the sort of euphemistic crap imported from the US that must be fought with might and main. The disgusting old paedo DIED.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/03/spiralling-inflation-crops-left-in-the-field-and-travel-chaos-10-reasons-brexit-has-been-disastrous-for-britain
Slush fund; clean slate; bitter end ... etc.
Most people know where copper bottomed originated, but how many would have got the three above without looking them up ?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=when+he+passed&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=3
Usage dipped down until 1980, then increased.
Deserve doesn't come into it.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns
...NIESR said gas price rises and the escalating cost of food would send inflation to 11% before the end of the year while the retail prices index (RPI), which is used to set rail fares and student loans repayments, is expected to hit 17.7%...
But the Guardian considers them bad things when the private sector working class get them.
The weather had to save us from the dissonance of seeing him in the sunshine.
Anyway, he seems happier in retirement. At least, his brooding presence across the Forth from me hasn't brought years of unending rain.
The absence of these, of course, doesn’t make the news.
However competent and hard working the man at the top is they cannot and should not be making all the decisions themselves.
I've a feeling it was So Long and Thanks for All the Fish. The fourth book in the hitchhikers' trilogy.
One of the happiest books ever written. I always think Adams must have been in an unusually good place when he wrote that.
It's not as though anyone's arguing this is disqualificatory. Though it might prompt those who admire her unfiltered nature to think about the potential downside as well.
Seriously though, it will rain again soon. The westerlies will be back driving in the wet weather systems from the west.
I can't think of anything as meaningless as silly season mid-term VI polls when the governing party is between leaders.
Or else there is a particularly low bar for disgrace nowadays.