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Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com
Looking back to the last time a PM was replaced between elections, 2007, I often wonder whether the course of British political history would have been different if Gordon Brown had called an immediate general election after taking over Tony Blair in the June of that year.
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I think she would be mad to risk an 80-seat majority two years early. Sometimes though it's the mad moves that have most chance of success.
1.22 Liz Truss 82%
5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%
Next Conservative leader
1.22 Liz Truss 82%
5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%
As noted previously, some bookmakers have bigger prices against Rishi.
2024 IMHO, when there’s hopefully not a war going on in Europe, and the aftermath of the pandemic has tailed off.
With a lot of praying that China doesn’t invade Taiwan.
So think what that campaign would look like. Another "fucking hell" energy story, denial then "we're already fixed this" then sneering from ministers.
I expect the support for Yes to increase...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Or not. Scrubbed for the day due to high winds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOQEkqFsALs
On topic Liz Truss was on BBC news last night. Not directly looking at the camera, not being interviewed, just walking along. Actually looked dreadful; wooden, only slightly tidier than Boris; I wonder if the stress of the campaign is getting to her and whether as a result she'll find actually being prime minister too stressful?
I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)
IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
"The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
"She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
"We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
"I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]
And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.
Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.
She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.
Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
Though it would have been much better executed if she'd said "we spend too much time worrying about Sturgeon - I want to send that time boosting the Yorkshire/NE/West Country economy"
At least 2 SCon unionists holding their heads in their hands.
Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
But then, it's not out of the realms of possibility to hear someone say "Thou art a bloody fool" (obviously, not to me
* On it's end
Could have spoken about a new Barnett settlement for the red wall or something.
https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1554361551397715968
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
In all seriousness though, how will they be able to recruit and retain staff if they offer a fraction of the pay for equivalent private sector jobs? As an example: if I took even a fairly senior civil service economist job I would have to take a pay cut of around 75%.
It's all very well taking a politics of envy position on civil service pay, but if you are not even close to competitive with the private sector you won't be able to get anyone good to work for the government. And in the end it will cost more as you will have to buy in consultancy time instead or get ripped off on contracts or make costly mistakes and bad decisions.
Thats "brave" if true.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
Next up: why a Tesla really is a horseless carriage.
But if the Truss pay story gets legs quickly then members will have it front and centre as they decide how to vote.
I'm hoping his odds decline a bit, but we shall see. Currently 5.7/5.8.
Then we’re seen a weird scattering of right wing policies, particularly the usual “cut the civil service” stuff, pay by region (how’s that for levelling up?) and this strange pitch toward Scotland
Must be over confidence.
Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.
Blair, with his usually urbanity, replied, 'as he is aware, it is often difficult to find somebody to take over an organisation at short notice, particularly if it's a failing organisation.'
Nick Robinson referred to 'walking wide eyed into an elephant' and Campbell himself said he'd 'had one of those days.'
He never quite recovered from the embarrassment. The Forth quip just fed into the idea he wasn't in command of his performances.
If so, I blame her teachers.
If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.
For instance, anyone who had given any thought to levelling up, which is government policy, will have seen that lower regional pay is inimical to it. Likewise anyone who had given any thought to strengthening the union would not have advocated ignoring Scotland's First Minister. But modern politicians are neither asked nor expected to think, simply to tow the party line, and so they can hold any number of contradictory positions.
As noted on the previous thread, the total civil service payroll is around £9bn.
The 'savings' she's claiming means levelling down.
As FCDO Sec she reacted to the proposed cuts in CS by arguing for an increase in FCDO staff!
While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
Sir Menzies Campbell rose to ask a question of the Prime Minister on the subject of state pensions. Eric yelled out, “Declare an interest!” and the entire chamber dissolved in laughter.
‘There has to be some sort of federalist offer’
https://twitter.com/robdunsmore/status/1554199501933613057?s=21&t=Hdy_f6q-ORp0GDNCkNPm3A
Nigel Fucking Farage says so...
Brexit: an update (with Anna Ford) https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1554357886368858112/video/1
A particular problem at the moment is the civil service pay is rubbish in London. Its not so much that regional pay needs to come down, it is that pay needs to increase in London.
In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554347053030973440
#China has launched exercises near #Taiwan ahead of Nancy #Pelosi's supposed visit.
Really ?
Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.