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Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageWhy I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com

Looking back to the last time a PM was replaced between elections, 2007, I often wonder whether the course of British political history would have been different if Gordon Brown had called an immediate general election after taking over Tony Blair in the June of that year.

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Comments

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,696
    First and no she will not go early.imho
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 4
    There should be an election, not because of Truss's chances but because it'd be more democratic. The new PM wouldn't be chosen just by a small coterie, half of whom still support the old one anyway.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    In the Blair/Brown documentary they stated that a new PM has their best polling three months after taking over. For Truss that would be December.

    I think she would be mad to risk an 80-seat majority two years early. Sometimes though it's the mad moves that have most chance of success.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    edited August 2
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.22 Liz Truss 82%
    5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.22 Liz Truss 82%
    5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%

    As noted previously, some bookmakers have bigger prices against Rishi.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    Can’t see it. The economy is going to be a nightmare over the autumn and winter.

    2024 IMHO, when there’s hopefully not a war going on in Europe, and the aftermath of the pandemic has tailed off.

    With a lot of praying that China doesn’t invade Taiwan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    She'll go only if there are large leads for her. Spring 2023 is a possibility, assuming Ukraine and CoL abates and she can engineer a mini-boom.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    She won't. Because the scenario says she gets a September bounce then calls an election late October. I can only imagine how gruesome the energy bills crisis will look by then. Remember that the Trusster is likely to retain many of the Tory party's dumbest ministers who neither know or care about energy bills and their impact on people.

    So think what that campaign would look like. Another "fucking hell" energy story, denial then "we're already fixed this" then sneering from ministers.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539
    Silly season
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Even if an early election would be good for the Conservative Party, it is hard to see Liz Truss taking the risk for fear of becoming Britain's shortest-serving prime minister ever (George Canning served four months). The memory of Theresa May's evaporating opinion poll lead is too recent.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,967
    No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796
    edited August 2
    Rocketlab about to launch:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU

    Or not. Scrubbed for the day due to high winds. :(
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294

    Rocketlab about to launch:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU

    Or not. Scrubbed for the day due to high winds. :(

    Tuned in just as the broadcast finished!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Jacob Rees-Mogg on LBC talking about cutting the civil service.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOQEkqFsALs
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    Good morning all!
    On topic Liz Truss was on BBC news last night. Not directly looking at the camera, not being interviewed, just walking along. Actually looked dreadful; wooden, only slightly tidier than Boris; I wonder if the stress of the campaign is getting to her and whether as a result she'll find actually being prime minister too stressful?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,948
    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    Good morning all!
    On topic Liz Truss was on BBC news last night. Not directly looking at the camera, not being interviewed, just walking along. Actually looked dreadful; wooden, only slightly tidier than Boris; I wonder if the stress of the campaign is getting to her and whether as a result she'll find actually being prime minister too stressful?

    Liz Truss might be getting tired but in any case she has always appeared wooden. That is why her much-improved performance at the hustings was surprising.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,082

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    If they really wanted to save money on the civil service, move the whole bloody lot out of London, flog the real estate and abolish London weighting.

    Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171
    She's gonna be El Gord in a dress methinks... Clinging on to the last possible moment - January 2025!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,948

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    The main people it will rile are people who already hate the Tories. And there is definitely a big chunk of people who enjoy a bit of faux outrage at stuff like this. Not much damage, imo, mainly cos the attention-seeker line is quite cutting (grain of truth).

    Though it would have been much better executed if she'd said "we spend too much time worrying about Sturgeon - I want to send that time boosting the Yorkshire/NE/West Country economy"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    As a betting proposition, laying 2024 is less of a gamble, if with quite not so much reward
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,082

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    In the Scottish matter gormless Liz’s main sin is not the attitude (which frankly is one held by the Tory party proper in any case, see the rapturous applause after her remarks), but saying it out loud. HYUFD Falangism seems to have gone mainstream.

    At least 2 SCon unionists holding their heads in their hands.






  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Eabhal said:

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    The main people it will rile are people who already hate the Tories. And there is definitely a big chunk of people who enjoy a bit of faux outrage at stuff like this. Not much damage, imo, mainly cos the attention-seeker line is quite cutting (grain of truth).

    Though it would have been much better executed if she'd said "we spend too much time worrying about Sturgeon - I want to send that time boosting the Yorkshire/NE/West Country economy"
    That is not a lot better because it still privileges England over Scotland (other parts of the United Kingdom are available on request).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    If they really wanted to save money on the civil service, move the whole bloody lot out of London, flog the real estate and abolish London weighting.

    Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
    That’s what she’s getting at I think. Moving people out of London, and abolishing national pay scales (and thus national pay negotiations with CS unions).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    Phew! At least Sir Boris/Lord Johnson won't be the one to go down in the history books as the PM who lost the Union. Pasty Liz takes that prize.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    Eabhal said:

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    The main people it will rile are people who already hate the Tories. And there is definitely a big chunk of people who enjoy a bit of faux outrage at stuff like this. Not much damage, imo, mainly cos the attention-seeker line is quite cutting (grain of truth).

    Though it would have been much better executed if she'd said "we spend too much time worrying about Sturgeon - I want to send that time boosting the Yorkshire/NE/West Country economy"
    That is not a lot better because it still privileges England over Scotland (other parts of the United Kingdom are available on request).
    "We are right, we can ignore everyone else as they are wrong" is what HY has been saying on here for ages. It does seem to be the current EngNat party ethos.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Is that the worst you can find to say about him?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Royale, I've heard people use the term 'wireless'.

    But then, it's not out of the realms of possibility to hear someone say "Thou art a bloody fool" (obviously, not to me :p ).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    If they really wanted to save money on the civil service, move the whole bloody lot out of London, flog the real estate and abolish London weighting.

    Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
    That’s what she’s getting at I think. Moving people out of London, and abolishing national pay scales (and thus national pay negotiations with CS unions).
    Sort of, although since the new regional pay scales would apply only to new civil servants, not existing ones, the mooted £9 billion savings will take time to accrue.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742
    Sturgeon has more right to lead Scotland than Truss has to be PM . The utter contempt shown by Truss will only help the SNP . The biggest danger to the Union isn’t Sturgeon but the Tories .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105
    An extremely risky strategy as May discovered in 2017
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Is that the worst you can find to say about him?
    He also got into trouble with his expenses?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    edited August 2

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Foreshadowing the events of the decade that was to come when most "radio" was broadcast online. And thus ceases to be radio...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105
    nico679 said:

    Sturgeon has more right to lead Scotland than Truss has to be PM . The utter contempt shown by Truss will only help the SNP . The biggest danger to the Union isn’t Sturgeon but the Tories .

    No, the biggest danger to the union is constantly giving in to the SNP by giving them indyrefs until they get the result they want
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Wireless has changed from noun (as in radio) to adjective (as in wireless headphones) which is presumably where it came from in the first place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,948

    Eabhal said:

    Off topic but I only saw it this morning. Truss saying "just ignore" Sturgeon, immediately doubled down with a patronising "we have to explain to Scotland and NI and Wales all the good we are doing to them".

    I expect the support for Yes to increase...

    I am very angry about this (stifles snigger)

    How dare she? (fails to prevent smirk)

    IT’S A DISGRACE! (breaks into triumphant laughter)
    lol - if someone wanted to write the justification for a new vote, 60 seconds of Truss would do it:
    "The leader of the Scottish Government should be ignored" [democratic mandate...?]
    "She is an attention-seeker" [says the cosplay queen with taxpayer-funded photographer
    "We have to explain all the good we do for Scotland" [because they are too stupid to notice]
    "I got rid of their whisky tariffs" [months after everyone else in the EU - another Brexit dividend]

    And it isn't just Scotland. Tone deaf patronising stupidity is what the modern Tories do all the time. Dorries and Coffey photo themselves at Wembley celebrating. Having voted against rights for women in a team with 7 LGBT players.
    The main people it will rile are people who already hate the Tories. And there is definitely a big chunk of people who enjoy a bit of faux outrage at stuff like this. Not much damage, imo, mainly cos the attention-seeker line is quite cutting (grain of truth).

    Though it would have been much better executed if she'd said "we spend too much time worrying about Sturgeon - I want to send that time boosting the Yorkshire/NE/West Country economy"
    That is not a lot better because it still privileges England over Scotland (other parts of the United Kingdom are available on request).
    I was thinking from a strictly "win Tory election contest" perspective.

    Could have spoken about a new Barnett settlement for the red wall or something.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    I think I posted similar comments the other day - how the power of the British Passport has diminished post-Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1554361551397715968
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796
    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127

    Jacob Rees-Mogg on LBC talking about cutting the civil service.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOQEkqFsALs

    They won't need to cut the civil service. Their pay policies mean they won't be able to recruit anyone so it will shrink of its own accord.
    In all seriousness though, how will they be able to recruit and retain staff if they offer a fraction of the pay for equivalent private sector jobs? As an example: if I took even a fairly senior civil service economist job I would have to take a pay cut of around 75%.
    It's all very well taking a politics of envy position on civil service pay, but if you are not even close to competitive with the private sector you won't be able to get anyone good to work for the government. And in the end it will cost more as you will have to buy in consultancy time instead or get ripped off on contracts or make costly mistakes and bad decisions.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    edited August 2
    Is the Trusster proposing to actively cut nurses (and other public services) pay outside the south east? Its in the Independent and now all over Twitter.

    Thats "brave" if true.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,478
    At 18/1 I like the bet. It will have to be quite a big bounce to convince the Tories to go for it though - they are a fair way behind in the polls.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,478

    Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.

    So 18/1 on the Tory membership selecting an idiot? Where else can you get odds like that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Sturgeon has more right to lead Scotland than Truss has to be PM . The utter contempt shown by Truss will only help the SNP . The biggest danger to the Union isn’t Sturgeon but the Tories .

    No, the biggest danger to the union is constantly giving in to the SNP by giving them indyrefs until they get the result they want
    Is the right answer, but needs to be expressed in more diplomatic language. There needs to be a single form of words that everyone in the government uses to answer the question.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Sturgeon has more right to lead Scotland than Truss has to be PM . The utter contempt shown by Truss will only help the SNP . The biggest danger to the Union isn’t Sturgeon but the Tories .

    No, the biggest danger to the union is constantly giving in to the SNP by giving them indyrefs until they get the result they want
    There is a difference between saying "we respect the people of Scotland and your democratic mandate as the leader of the Scottish government. We just don't agree now is the right time" and "we should just ignore her. She's an attention seeker. The people of Scotland need to be educated about all the good we do as they are too stupid to notice"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Pioneers, whether accurate or not, if Truss seeking to cut pay outside of the south east gets much coverage it will dent her chances.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Is that the worst you can find to say about him?
    I could talk about his dire polling whilst leader?

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    He was an extremely popular constituency MP for NE Fife.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    Mr. Pioneers, whether accurate or not, if Truss seeking to cut pay outside of the south east gets much coverage it will dent her chances.

    With the report of the contest being a lot narrower than some of us believed, is there a path to victory for Rishi?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Foreshadowing the events of the decade that was to come when most "radio" was broadcast online. And thus ceases to be radio...
    I love the way Lib Dem supporters feel the need to defend it.

    Next up: why a Tesla really is a horseless carriage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    edited August 2

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
    I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697

    Wireless has changed from noun (as in radio) to adjective (as in wireless headphones) which is presumably where it came from in the first place.

    I think it was originally an adjective, wireless being a contraction of wireless receiver.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Pioneers, Sunak is not out of this yet, though still clearly with a mountain to climb.

    But if the Truss pay story gets legs quickly then members will have it front and centre as they decide how to vote.

    I'm hoping his odds decline a bit, but we shall see. Currently 5.7/5.8.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Is that the worst you can find to say about him?
    I could talk about his dire polling whilst leader?

    As I recall he did quite well in the Commons until that crack by Eric Forth (?). About pensions.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215
    I had slightly (very slightly) warmed to Liz T over the last week or so.

    Then we’re seen a weird scattering of right wing policies, particularly the usual “cut the civil service” stuff, pay by region (how’s that for levelling up?) and this strange pitch toward Scotland

    Must be over confidence.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    Is the Trusster proposing to actively cut nurses (and other public services) pay outside the south east? Its in the Independent and now all over Twitter.

    Thats "brave" if true.

    Aiui Truss (and JRM today) are talking about the new regional pay scales applying only to new workers, so the existing workforce will stay on their current (national) scale. Of course, this means having workers side-by-side on different salaries but I suppose that is not unknown in parts of the private sector.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215

    Mr. Pioneers, whether accurate or not, if Truss seeking to cut pay outside of the south east gets much coverage it will dent her chances.

    The line is bizarre. Vote for me - I’ll pay you less than the south east and London for the same job?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    I'm impressed that she's chosen to differentiate herself from Boris so early on.

    Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited August 2

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Is that the worst you can find to say about him?
    I could talk about his dire polling whilst leader?

    As I recall he did quite well in the Commons until that crack by Eric Forth (?). About pensions.
    His very first PMQs as acting leader he asked Tony Blair why one in five schools had no permanent headteacher.

    Blair, with his usually urbanity, replied, 'as he is aware, it is often difficult to find somebody to take over an organisation at short notice, particularly if it's a failing organisation.'

    Nick Robinson referred to 'walking wide eyed into an elephant' and Campbell himself said he'd 'had one of those days.'

    He never quite recovered from the embarrassment. The Forth quip just fed into the idea he wasn't in command of his performances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
    I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.
    The graduate engineers who joined the initial Next Gen Space Telescope programme at its inception in 1996, should just about see the fruits of their work before they retire!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Foreshadowing the events of the decade that was to come when most "radio" was broadcast online. And thus ceases to be radio...
    I love the way Lib Dem supporters feel the need to defend it.

    Next up: why a Tesla really is a horseless carriage.
    Defend it? I was taking the piss out of it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598

    Is the Trusster proposing to actively cut nurses (and other public services) pay outside the south east? Its in the Independent and now all over Twitter.

    Thats "brave" if true.

    Simplest answer is that she doesn't understand the proposal she is proposing.

    If so, I blame her teachers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Abode, it also won't contrast well with Sunak's (also daft) offering "Less pay with Liz, less tax with Rishi."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.

    If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    I had slightly (very slightly) warmed to Liz T over the last week or so.

    Then we’re seen a weird scattering of right wing policies, particularly the usual “cut the civil service” stuff, pay by region (how’s that for levelling up?) and this strange pitch toward Scotland

    Must be over confidence.

    Overconfidence or perhaps a sign of the debasement of politics in recent decades, where policies are replaced by slogans, judged by the number of headlines they generate.

    For instance, anyone who had given any thought to levelling up, which is government policy, will have seen that lower regional pay is inimical to it. Likewise anyone who had given any thought to strengthening the union would not have advocated ignoring Scotland's First Minister. But modern politicians are neither asked nor expected to think, simply to tow the party line, and so they can hold any number of contradictory positions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    Is the Trusster proposing to actively cut nurses (and other public services) pay outside the south east? Its in the Independent and now all over Twitter.

    Thats "brave" if true.

    Yes.
    As noted on the previous thread, the total civil service payroll is around £9bn.
    The 'savings' she's claiming means levelling down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    ydoethur said:

    If Gordon Brown had gone in 2007-8, he would almost certainly have lost, but possibly less badly than in 2010.

    The issue with Brown would have been the one with May - he was a terrible campaigner. Ponderous, unable to think on his feet and not really a match for Cameron and Clegg. Moreover, he was totally out of policy ideas. The one advantage he might have had is he would have been facing Campbell rather than Clegg.

    Will that bother Truss? Probably not as all PMs are arrogant enough to believe they know better (or they wouldn't be PM). But I don't think she will want to risk a large majority in the middle of the current shitstorm, before the boundary review takes effect. Even in the best case scenario, she'd end up with a majority of 20 and have a much harder time with the PCP.

    She's clearly one stick short of a bundle, but I don't think she's altogether a fool. No bet for me. Or rather, the attractive bet would be SKS to become PM in 2022, as the odds would be tastier and the fundamentals do not favour the governing party.

    Ming Campbell was deeply odd. A LD version of JRM.

    Why on earth was he still using the word 'wireless' to describe a radio in 2007?
    Foreshadowing the events of the decade that was to come when most "radio" was broadcast online. And thus ceases to be radio...
    I love the way Lib Dem supporters feel the need to defend it.

    Next up: why a Tesla really is a horseless carriage.
    A traditionalist like yourself ought to approve.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749

    Mr. Pioneers, Sunak is not out of this yet, though still clearly with a mountain to climb.

    But if the Truss pay story gets legs quickly then members will have it front and centre as they decide how to vote.

    I'm hoping his odds decline a bit, but we shall see. Currently 5.7/5.8.

    They’ll have it front and centre when they vote… and they’ll vote Truss because Conservative party members love the thought of cutting pay?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    If they really wanted to save money on the civil service, move the whole bloody lot out of London, flog the real estate and abolish London weighting.

    Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
    That’s what she’s getting at I think. Moving people out of London, and abolishing national pay scales (and thus national pay negotiations with CS unions).
    Complete chaos in the CS as people jockey for jobs and redundancy packages doesn't sound much of a recipe for delivering anything. Maybe she wants that excuse.

    As FCDO Sec she reacted to the proposed cuts in CS by arguing for an increase in FCDO staff!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    Is the Trusster proposing to actively cut nurses (and other public services) pay outside the south east? Its in the Independent and now all over Twitter.

    Thats "brave" if true.

    Simplest answer is that she doesn't understand the proposal she is proposing.

    If so, I blame her teachers.
    Indeed. As apparently does she as the reports are that she wants to cut their pay...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105

    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.

    So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.

    While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    Truss is clear she will ignore the FM of Scotland and ignore the majority of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to tear up the Protocol. What has she got in store for Wales?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215

    Mr. Abode, it also won't contrast well with Sunak's (also daft) offering "Less pay with Liz, less tax with Rishi."

    Yup. We’re in for an utter sh*tshow. I’d be surprised if she evens posts a lead in the polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Sturgeon has more right to lead Scotland than Truss has to be PM . The utter contempt shown by Truss will only help the SNP . The biggest danger to the Union isn’t Sturgeon but the Tories .

    No, the biggest danger to the union is constantly giving in to the SNP by giving them indyrefs until they get the result they want
    Is the right answer, but needs to be expressed in more diplomatic language. There needs to be a single form of words that everyone in the government uses to answer the question.
    There is 'NO!!!!'
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215

    Mr. Pioneers, Sunak is not out of this yet, though still clearly with a mountain to climb.

    But if the Truss pay story gets legs quickly then members will have it front and centre as they decide how to vote.

    I'm hoping his odds decline a bit, but we shall see. Currently 5.7/5.8.

    They’ll have it front and centre when they vote… and they’ll vote Truss because Conservative party members love the thought of cutting pay?
    Great context as well. Not like there’s anything like a cost of living crisis. Phew
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539
    The Forth quip for those with shorter memory spans:

    Sir Menzies Campbell rose to ask a question of the Prime Minister on the subject of state pensions. Eric yelled out, “Declare an interest!” and the entire chamber dissolved in laughter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105

    Truss is clear she will ignore the FM of Scotland and ignore the majority of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to tear up the Protocol. What has she got in store for Wales?

    Continuing to deliver the Brexit the residents of Wales voted for
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    HYUFD said:

    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.

    So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.

    While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
    No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,082
    Hey Unionists, if only this guy had been in charge at some point.

    ‘There has to be some sort of federalist offer’



    https://twitter.com/robdunsmore/status/1554199501933613057?s=21&t=Hdy_f6q-ORp0GDNCkNPm3A
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105
    geoffw said:

    The Forth quip for those with shorter memory spans:

    Sir Menzies Campbell rose to ask a question of the Prime Minister on the subject of state pensions. Eric yelled out, “Declare an interest!” and the entire chamber dissolved in laughter.

    Though Sir Ming is still going long after Eric passed away
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    HYUFD said:

    Continuing to deliver the Brexit the residents of Wales voted for

    This is not the Brexit they voted for.

    Nigel Fucking Farage says so...

    Brexit: an update (with Anna Ford) https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1554357886368858112/video/1
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,478
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    If they really wanted to save money on the civil service, move the whole bloody lot out of London, flog the real estate and abolish London weighting.

    Put them all in Stoke and save a fortune.
    That’s what she’s getting at I think. Moving people out of London, and abolishing national pay scales (and thus national pay negotiations with CS unions).
    I can say from experience that this just won't work unless you actually go and move Parliament to another city, along with everything associated with the running of the state. Otherwise you will just end up with masses of civil servants taking peak time trains up and down the country for in person meetings in London, at the insistence of Ministers.

    A particular problem at the moment is the civil service pay is rubbish in London. Its not so much that regional pay needs to come down, it is that pay needs to increase in London.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    The Forth quip for those with shorter memory spans:

    Sir Menzies Campbell rose to ask a question of the Prime Minister on the subject of state pensions. Eric yelled out, “Declare an interest!” and the entire chamber dissolved in laughter.

    Though Sir Ming is still going long after Eric passed away
    Even though he was a sprinter, not a long-distance runner.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,709
    edited August 2
    The idea, or the straw that some of us are clutching, is after Truss has finished pandering to her crackpot base, she will turn out to be a competent prime minister. To test this idea, has Truss suggested anything sensible that might be retained once all the red meat has been consumed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,105
    edited August 2

    HYUFD said:

    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.

    So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.

    While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
    No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.

    Not necessarily, especially if the next general election gives the Tories a majority in England but Labour and the SNP most seats in the UK overall. Very possible under PM Truss.

    In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    The Forth quip for those with shorter memory spans:

    Sir Menzies Campbell rose to ask a question of the Prime Minister on the subject of state pensions. Eric yelled out, “Declare an interest!” and the entire chamber dissolved in laughter.

    Though Sir Ming is still going long after Eric passed away
    So is collecting a pension!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    "Imagine being scared of Nancy Pelosi."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554347053030973440
    #China has launched exercises near #Taiwan ahead of Nancy #Pelosi's supposed visit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is clear she will ignore the FM of Scotland and ignore the majority of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to tear up the Protocol. What has she got in store for Wales?

    Continuing to deliver the Brexit the residents of Wales voted for
    They asked for something this crappy ?
    Really ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    Jonathan said:

    Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.

    If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.

    I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.

    Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
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