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Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    On topic I suspect any 2022 general election would be a black swan kind of event. 18 to 1 doesn't seem massive value.
  • We’ve already seen signs that Truss is going to have problems.

    She’s announced a policy which doesn’t make any sense and will involve cutting the pay of basically everyone and she thinks two internets can operate in parallel.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It's the first tweet in a reasonably long thread, where she goes into some of the nuances later. Sweeping generalisations are about all you can fit into the character limit of a single tweet. It's a facile criticism to make of a tweet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    I'm impressed that she's chosen to differentiate herself from Boris so early on.

    Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.
    Surely it's unlevelling down?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Jonathan said:

    Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.

    If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.

    I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.

    Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
    Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.

    Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    So, Truss’s claimed savings are fantastical and her campaign has already had to admit they got their sums wrong in places. She’s going to be worse than Johnson, isn’t she?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.

    So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.

    While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
    No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.

    Not necessarily, especially if the next general election gives the Tories a majority in England but Labour and the SNP most seats in the UK overall. Very possible under PM Truss.

    In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway
    Indeed the RedfieldWilton poll going Truss 37% and Starmer 36% as preferred PM would give the Tories a majority in England if matched by voting intention with 303 seats. Labour would have 260 seats after the boundary changes.

    However Labour and the SNP combined would be more than the Tories with 312

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=36&LIB=12&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=24&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=46.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Cookie said:

    No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.

    I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.

    So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this case
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    Jarring moment at Exeter hustings was when Sunak said Truss’s Australia free trade deal was bad for GB farmers but he wouldn’t renegotiate because it would be wrong to rip up an international treaty. Hello! Paging Mr Sunak! NI Protocol Bill is holding for you on the other line

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1554198526246125573?t=9Yfo854lQKrtcML8wv3iPw&s=19
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

    The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.

    “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.


    This isn't going to end well, is it?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.

    So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.

    While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
    No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.

    Not necessarily, especially if the next general election gives the Tories a majority in England but Labour and the SNP most seats in the UK overall. Very possible under PM Truss.

    In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway
    In 2016, most people in NI voted to Remain (56%).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.

    If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.

    I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.

    Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
    Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.

    Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.
    I couldn't think of any other theoretical policy, related to the cost of living crisis, that she might lose a Commons vote on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

    The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.

    “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.


    This isn't going to end well, is it?

    It it's going to end at all, it would be something
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    FF43 said:

    The idea, or the straw that some of us are clutching, is after Truss has finished pandering to her crackpot base, she will turn out to be a competent prime minister. To test this idea, has Truss suggested anything sensible that might be retained once all the red meat has been consumed?

    Sure. Becoming a republic, voting Libdem amongst others.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?

    This week! Announcement on Thursday.
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?

    Thursday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

    The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.

    “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.


    This isn't going to end well, is it?

    People with existing houses bought a while back will be fine as the nominal value will just dip a bit from the currently overinflated number but it's probably a very bad time to buy tbh.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.

    Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It's the first tweet in a reasonably long thread, where she goes into some of the nuances later. Sweeping generalisations are about all you can fit into the character limit of a single tweet. It's a facile criticism to make of a tweet.
    Perhaps, but it seems a counterproductive argument to dismiss perhaps half of your potential allies.
    Most people don't read whole threads.

  • Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.

    I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.

    So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.
    Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Cyclefree said:

    Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.

    Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.
    Oh that is going to cost the Tory party a few Redwall seats at the next election - whether it's implemented or not.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

    The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.

    “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.


    This isn't going to end well, is it?

    The BoE yet again shifted risks back onto the taxpayer yesterday to boost asset values for pensioners at the expense of those working with the removal of stress tests for mortgages. What is the point of having stress tests when rates are stable and then remove them when things get volatile! Bonkers, unless there was never any intent to have responsible lending without the state being a backstop to protect the market.

    Virtually no publicity about this, and what there is frames it as a boost for house buyers - all it means is they will pay more!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,037

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    In fairness to Sturgeon - and that's not something I ever want to write again - I don't know many politicians who are exactly shrinking violet types.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Cyclefree said:

    Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.

    Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.
    Though that policy strangely quiet in the news at the moment. Unless Lab also staying quiet as they think Liz best opponent to go up against
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?

    This week! Announcement on Thursday.
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
    "The boost to consumer sentiment created by the stunning victory of the England team in the recent European Association Football tournament means that we now judge the economy can withstand the 100 basis point increase in Bank of England policy rates that we are announcing today..."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.

    If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.

    I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.

    Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
    Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.

    Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.
    I couldn't think of any other theoretical policy, related to the cost of living crisis, that she might lose a Commons vote on.
    It is indeed one of few things on which she could lose a vote.

    The real worry is that there is serious discussion in the States about export bans, to “Protect American consumers and businesses this winter”. Any sniff of anyone else doing the same, will simply add to the calls Stateside. It’s going to require careful diplomacy to avoid economic nationalism.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    Yes, and particularly given the increasing batshitosity of American politics.

    Silicon Valley leaders are generally fairly liberal, Thiel and Musk aside. Silicon Valley engineers certainly are.

    It's not hard to see how a country which elected Trump, nearly had an armed overthrow of the Capitol, and overturned Roe vs Wade now looks less appealing to an affluent, educated Silicon Valley engineer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I can't believe I'm arguing on the same side as Dan Hodges about an opinion poll.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

    The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.

    “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.


    This isn't going to end well, is it?

    The BoE yet again shifted risks back onto the taxpayer yesterday to boost asset values for pensioners at the expense of those working with the removal of stress tests for mortgages. What is the point of having stress tests when rates are stable and then remove them when things get volatile! Bonkers, unless there was never any intent to have responsible lending without the state being a backstop to protect the market.

    Virtually no publicity about this, and what there is frames it as a boost for house buyers - all it means is they will pay more!
    That was on Sky News yesterday morning, but it hasn't received anywhere near as much attention as it deserves.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I'm arguing on the same side as Dan Hodges about an opinion poll.

    Did we work out who they were actually polling?
  • Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    It is a question of which hat Nicola Sturgeon is wearing.

    Insulting the head of the SNP is one thing. Saying the First Minister of Scotland can and should be ignored is something else, and damn stupid if you are trying to strengthen the union.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I'm arguing on the same side as Dan Hodges about an opinion poll.

    Did we work out who they were actually polling?
    They say "members" but the results are identical as for 2019 "supporters"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    Yes, and particularly given the increasing batshitosity of American politics.

    Silicon Valley leaders are generally fairly liberal, Thiel and Musk aside. Silicon Valley engineers certainly are.

    It's not hard to see how a country which elected Trump, nearly had an armed overthrow of the Capitol, and overturned Roe vs Wade now looks less appealing to an affluent, educated Silicon Valley engineer.
    Exactly. And moving your HQ to Texas or Florida now looks much less appealing after the Roe v Wade overturn. Will your many female staff members want to live in these places? I doubt it

    So London will benefit. And your holidays will be so much more interesting - the Med rather than Mexico. Paris rather than Montreal
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this case
    Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.
    And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.

    Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.

    Meanwhile, in the US
    Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.

    He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1554095814611443712
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    It is a question of which hat Nicola Sturgeon is wearing.

    Insulting the head of the SNP is one thing. Saying the First Minister of Scotland can and should be ignored is something else, and damn stupid if you are trying to strengthen the union.
    When Sturgeon is trying to break up the Union as her priority number 1 it certainly isn't
  • Betfair next prime minister
    1.22 Liz Truss 82%
    5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.22 Liz Truss 82%
    5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%

    As noted previously, some bookmakers have bigger prices against Rishi.

    Rishi dips below 4/1 to be next prime minister but is nearly 9/2 for next party leader. Remember to check both markets (and the bookmakers) before playing.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.24 Liz Truss 81%
    4.8 Rishi Sunak 21%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.23 Liz Truss 81%
    5.4 Rishi Sunak 19%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    You can accuse Nicola Sturgeon of several things. "Attention-seeker" isn't one. Liz Truss on the other hand ...

    That abject lack of awareness can also be seen when Truss insults Keir Starmer as a "plastic patriot"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    That you nickname for Liz ?
  • The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Aside from the Shuttle.... (yes, the bit about on end)

    @JosiasJessop - https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1553431057374003201 - Tory Bruno now has engines.....

    https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron is the project to watch, at the moment. I think they have a very good shot at building it and making it work.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this case
    Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.
    And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.

    Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.

    Meanwhile, in the US
    Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.

    He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1554095814611443712
    The populist nationalists beloved of Matthew Goodwin, Leon etc. are almost everywhere in the first rank of Putinistas. With the exception of Meloni.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    "Imagine being scared of Nancy Pelosi."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554347053030973440
    #China has launched exercises near #Taiwan ahead of Nancy #Pelosi's supposed visit.

    The Nancy Pelosi weapon system is a serious, strategic system - probably equivalent in throw weight to 0.08 Duke of Edinburghs
  • Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg

    I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.

    @Leon must condemn them immediately.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 698
    Special pleading and all that but Truss is being disingenuous about her Civil Service cuts programme. The number of civil servants in Whitehall is tiny and even if you scoop up those who can properly be called Civil Servants in the regions the entire annual pay bill is less than the amount she expects to save. What she really means is public sector cuts but she can’t say that because it includes nurses, teachers and police officers. I wonder how cutting two holiday days from NHS workers will go down.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    That you nickname for Liz ?
    To be scrupulously fair Narcisisstic Lizzy prefers to be photgraphed by others (usually in the employ of the government) rather than selfies. Actually, that's a point, will she be taking a scythe to the government publicity operation?


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Aside from the Shuttle.... (yes, the bit about on end)

    @JosiasJessop - https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1553431057374003201 - Tory Bruno now has engines.....

    https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron is the project to watch, at the moment. I think they have a very good shot at building it and making it work.
    Yeah, Tory's been doing much more of BO's PR than BO. ;)

    Neutron is one to watch, but they've got a mountain to climb IMO. Their launch and market experience will be invaluable, though.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Nigelb said:

    The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg

    I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.

    @Leon must condemn them immediately.
    I am more shocked that people still read a paper owned by the Barclay
    Brother and likewise people still read the hateful Dail Mail.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

    You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited August 2022

    The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg

    That’s as much disengenuous tosh as the Guardian version from yesterday. The Henley rankings have nothing to do with the colour of passports, the stamps in them, or whether you can use e-gates.

    The Henley ranking is purely derived by the requirement, or otherwise, for a visa-in-advance. UK has dropped from 190 countries, to 187 countries, where citizens can visit with either no visa or one on arrival. None of the changes involve anything to do with the EU.

    A much better piece on the Henley Index https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Oh I just noticed @hyufd posted this on the last thread in reply to me:

    kjh said:

    Re being a maths genius, sadly I am not and there are several here who I'm sure would run circles around me, although I can appreciate why you might think so having shown daily your complete inability to understand the most basic elements of logic and statistics.

    @hyufd said:

    And a patronising final paragraph to match from the grammar school educated kjh, who got to Manchester University from that grammar school


    OK

    a) It might be patronising, but you started it by being very rude to me which was uncalled for. I was not rude to you. You deserved it. So much for you always being polite. I have no idea what got into you to make such an uncalled for rude comment.

    b) I got to University on my own merits, not the schools. I changed schools because I had to. The Secondary Modern did not do A levels. I was already at the standard required, hence being fast streamed and taking A levels after 1 year of 6th form. So you final statement was, as usual, completely inaccurate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Weekly deaths update:

    https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77

    COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.

    Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average

    01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
    08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
    15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
    22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
    29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
    06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
    13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
    20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
    27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
    03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
    10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
    17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
    24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
    01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
    08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
    15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
    22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935
  • kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    @HYUFD assertion that good comprehensives are de facto Secondary Modern schools illustrates his woeful ignorance of the education system… one hopes that he has no responsibility for children's services in his council role…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    Whatevs
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
    I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.
    The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following things

    1) Big projects going to the right companies
    2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
    3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
    4) National prestige
    ...
    1021) Spaceflight

    Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..

    So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output

    Oh good.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

    You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..

    The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.

  • Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:




  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    EPG said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.

    Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
    @rynkrynk
    Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
    7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
    ...


    https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648

    It's also wrong.
    There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
    They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
    It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this case
    Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.
    And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.

    Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.

    Meanwhile, in the US
    Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.

    He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1554095814611443712
    The populist nationalists beloved of Matthew Goodwin, Leon etc. are almost everywhere in the first rank of Putinistas. With the exception of Meloni.
    The argument is liberal democracy vs the authoritarians.

    It cuts across the left/right divide; I'm happy to credit those from either side who support Ukraine.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

    You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..

    The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.

    I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.

    You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.

    https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ <— actually useful article on the Henley Index.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:




    Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    Nigelb said:

    The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg

    I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.

    @Leon must condemn them immediately.
    I am more shocked that people still read a paper owned by the Barclay
    Brother and likewise people still read the hateful Dail Mail.
    Because there is nothing people dislike more than abandoning long held and deeply cherished prejudices.

    Farage and similar grievance mongers will always find a market.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Leon said:

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    Whatevs
    You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?

    I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).

    I'm impressed that she's chosen to differentiate herself from Boris so early on.

    Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.
    Surely it's unlevelling down?
    also known as "tripping up".....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited August 2022

    Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:

    "Nick Trend" seems to be a rather appropriate name, all he does is nick trends off Twitter without understanding them.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
    I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.
    The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following things

    1) Big projects going to the right companies
    2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
    3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
    4) National prestige
    ...
    1021) Spaceflight

    Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..

    So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.
    Pork barrel politics isn't confined to NASA projects in Congress - or even to the US.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    I had slightly (very slightly) warmed to Liz T over the last week or so.

    Then we’re seen a weird scattering of right wing policies, particularly the usual “cut the civil service” stuff, pay by region (how’s that for levelling up?) and this strange pitch toward Scotland

    Must be over confidence.

    Overconfidence or perhaps a sign of the debasement of politics in recent decades, where policies are replaced by slogans, judged by the number of headlines they generate.

    For instance, anyone who had given any thought to levelling up, which is government policy, will have seen that lower regional pay is inimical to it. Likewise anyone who had given any thought to strengthening the union would not have advocated ignoring Scotland's First Minister. But modern politicians are neither asked nor expected to think, simply to tow the party line, and so they can hold any number of contradictory positions.
    I think two things are true at the same time - Nicola Sturgeon is an attention seeker, and plays whatever games she can. Her daily covid briefings, always before the UK government, were n example, as was her leaking of privileged information about the covid situation ahead of UK government. And yet she should also not be ignored as the she is the elected leader of the Scottish Parliament.

    Once again, the English majority are ill served by the devolution settlement.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Sandpit said:

    It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.

    https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
    The article you've linked to contradicts itself:

    "Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth

    and

    "The 10 most powerful passports are below.

    Japan, 192 destinations
    Singapore, 192
    Germany, 190
    South Korea, 190
    Finland, 189
    Italy, 189
    Luxembourg, 189
    Spain, 189
    Austria, 188
    Denmark, 188"


  • Dan Hodges is very angry about a poll, not that kind of poll
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Keystone said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now look what you've done. They've called it off.
    Not the first time I've done that...

    Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.

    Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
    I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.


    * On it's end ;)
    Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper... ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
    I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.
    The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following things

    1) Big projects going to the right companies
    2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
    3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
    4) National prestige
    ...
    1021) Spaceflight

    Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..

    So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.
    Pork barrel politics isn't confined to NASA projects in Congress - or even to the US.
    But NASA projects are the undoubted Gold Standard of Pork Barrel politics.

    The SLS (Senate Launch System) was designed and produced across every single one of the 48 contiguous States, and not by accident.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.

    I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.

    So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.
    Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?
    Yep, good point. Even if there is the desire, time is tight for 2022.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output

    Oh good.

    I'd prefer a case for greatly increased overseas aid for financing renewables in Africa.
    If developed nations are serious about addressing climate change, that it essential.

    And would (probably, if done right) be of great benefit to the entire world economy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Sandpit said:

    It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.

    https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
    The article you've linked to contradicts itself:

    "Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth

    and

    "The 10 most powerful passports are below.

    Japan, 192 destinations
    Singapore, 192
    Germany, 190
    South Korea, 190
    Finland, 189
    Italy, 189
    Luxembourg, 189
    Spain, 189
    Austria, 188
    Denmark, 188"


    Look down to the full table, they don't understand how to use ordinal numbers where there are ties.
  • kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    Whatevs
    You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..
    Sometimes it is best to let previous threads die. Otherwise we end up with ongoing feuds, and it is not as if there is much more to say about grammar schools, and even if there is, the subject will recur organically in due course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    tlg86 said:

    Weekly deaths update:

    https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77

    COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.

    Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average

    01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
    08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
    15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
    22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
    29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
    06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
    13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
    20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
    27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
    03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
    10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
    17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
    24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
    01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
    08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
    15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
    22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935

    Just to put those Week 29 figures in perspective, here are the number of deaths in Week 29 going back to 2010:

    Week ended | All deaths
    23-Jul-10 | 8,261
    22-Jul-11 | 8,500
    20-Jul-12 | 8,684
    19-Jul-13 | 8,790
    18-Jul-14 | 9,119
    17-Jul-15 | 8,802
    22-Jul-16 | 9,350
    21-Jul-17 | 9,113
    20-Jul-18 | 9,127
    19-Jul-19 | 9,080
    17-Jul-20 | 8,823
    23-Jul-21 | 9,744
    22-Jul-22 | 10,978

    That figure of 10,978 deaths (745 COVID deaths) in the week ending 22 July 2022 is more than 1,000 more than last year (327 COVID deaths) and over 1,628 more than any other year (2016).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.
    That made me laugh and for those not on the thread yesterday that was the term @hyufd used re the benefit of his private education.

    I do wonder if there is more to it. By making himself known on PB he can be looked up on the council web site as an elected councillor. Is there an element of envy from a privileged public school boy of 40 living in a one bedroom flat, doing an average job, waiting for his rightly deserved inheritance, being outdone by an upstart from a Secondary School.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.

    https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
    The article you've linked to contradicts itself:

    "Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth

    and

    "The 10 most powerful passports are below.

    Japan, 192 destinations
    Singapore, 192
    Germany, 190
    South Korea, 190
    Finland, 189
    Italy, 189
    Luxembourg, 189
    Spain, 189
    Austria, 188
    Denmark, 188"


    One weird anomaly of the Henley ranking is the way they treat equals. So Japan and Singapore are #1, Germany and SK are #2, the next three are all #3 etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

    You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..

    The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.

    I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.

    You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...
    As that FT article point out, talented staff in London are also an awful lot cheaper than in the USA, if you can find them


    On the same theme, London is quietly building a super impressive IT hub in King’s Cross. I knew that Google were opening a huge new HQ there, but I didn’t realise Meta have just unveiled their own quite dazzling King’s X HQ (their biggest outside the USA)

    This is where the Instagram boss is going


    https://www.dezeen.com/2022/03/31/meta-kings-cross-office-bennetts-associates/


    King’s X will soon be an amazing place to be. Google, Meta, St Martin’s College, UCL, the Wellcome, the Francis Crick Institute, the British library, the Guardian, Deepmind, Expedia, Samsung, the Alan Turing Institute, and dozens of others. A glorious collision of talents and skills. I rather envy young people who get to work and play there

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited August 2022

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    Whatevs
    You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..
    Sometimes it is best to let previous threads die. Otherwise we end up with ongoing feuds, and it is not as if there is much more to say about grammar schools, and even if there is, the subject will recur organically in due course.
    Point taken. Please note my subsequent comment was made before I saw your post. My anger was not so much about the Grammar school debate, but hyufd's completely unnecessary rudeness on the last thread which made me respond.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited August 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.

    https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
    The article you've linked to contradicts itself:

    "Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth

    and

    "The 10 most powerful passports are below.

    Japan, 192 destinations
    Singapore, 192
    Germany, 190
    South Korea, 190
    Finland, 189
    Italy, 189
    Luxembourg, 189
    Spain, 189
    Austria, 188
    Denmark, 188"


    One weird anomaly of the Henley ranking is the way they treat equals. So Japan and Singapore are #1, Germany and SK are #2, the next three are all #3 etc.
    Ah right, and yes, weird. Henley ranking is clearly collated by an innumerate team. Probably all Oxbridge arts graduates.

    Edit: I think you meant to say "the next four are all #3 etc" ;-)
  • Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...

    It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...


    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145

    Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!

    That you nickname for Liz ?
    That’s Liztagram
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.

    I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.

    So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.
    Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?
    Yep, good point. Even if there is the desire, time is tight for 2022.
    This is a terrible bet. She would become the shortest serving PM in history, beating Canning's 119 days (ignoring joke candidates Bath and Waldegrave) and have to resign as party leader, or look ridiculous. She would have to be 10 points ahead to even think about it.

  • The second to last paragraph of this thread header is very misleading and OGH should know better than to promote such myths. Democratic legitimacy has always derived from the election of MPs not from who they choose to be Prime Minister. If they are not happy with her then they can vote her down and choose someone else. No General Election is necessary.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Weekly deaths update:

    https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77

    COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.

    Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average

    01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
    08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
    15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
    22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
    29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
    06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
    13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
    20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
    27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
    03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
    10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
    17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
    24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
    01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
    08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
    15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
    22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935

    Just to put those Week 29 figures in perspective, here are the number of deaths in Week 29 going back to 2010:

    Week ended | All deaths
    23-Jul-10 | 8,261
    22-Jul-11 | 8,500
    20-Jul-12 | 8,684
    19-Jul-13 | 8,790
    18-Jul-14 | 9,119
    17-Jul-15 | 8,802
    22-Jul-16 | 9,350
    21-Jul-17 | 9,113
    20-Jul-18 | 9,127
    19-Jul-19 | 9,080
    17-Jul-20 | 8,823
    23-Jul-21 | 9,744
    22-Jul-22 | 10,978

    That figure of 10,978 deaths (745 COVID deaths) in the week ending 22 July 2022 is more than 1,000 more than last year (327 COVID deaths) and over 1,628 more than any other year (2016).
    Always think that this trend means Legal and General shares are a good buy given they take a lot of wholesale risk on pension liabilities taking on the risk of other big pension schemes as a core of their business. Also any plc with a big defined pension scheme (all other things being equal)
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Because Brexit part 297


    Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London

    “Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677

    (££)

    The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result

    Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”

    I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc

    But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe

    The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.

    FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.

    You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..

    The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.

    I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.

    You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...

    You would rarely need to. I am not in anyway defending the politics of places like Texas, but there is a strong local talent pool at all levels. And where there isn't, money usually solves the problem.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.
    That made me laugh and for those not on the thread yesterday that was the term @hyufd used re the benefit of his private education.

    I do wonder if there is more to it. By making himself known on PB he can be looked up on the council web site as an elected councillor. Is there an element of envy from a privileged public school boy of 40 living in a one bedroom flat, doing an average job, waiting for his rightly deserved inheritance, being outdone by an upstart from a Secondary School.
    No, as I also said I passed the 11+ and you didn't even if you got into a grammar at 16.

    However I generally don't play personal games as I come here for the
    politics not personal issues. I couldn't care less if you are a billionaire or on universal credit as far as discussing politics goes. In say case I have sold my flat and my wife and I are buying a house together not that it makes the slightest difference to anyone on here
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289

    Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:




    Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.
    The PB-er who is scared of going abroad because he is “too frightened to drive on the right” is worried about the usefulness of his passport

    Mate, you don’t need a passport to get your coach to Hove
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    Fucksake, how long does it take to send BTC to the Darknet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922

    kjh said:


    FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)

    @Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:

    'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'


    I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.

    He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.

    Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.

    I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.

    @HYUFD assertion that good comprehensives are de facto Secondary Modern schools illustrates his woeful ignorance of the education system… one hopes that he has no responsibility for children's services in his council role…
    Comprehensives that are not outstanding are little different to Secondary moderns yes
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Leon said:

    Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:




    Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.
    The PB-er who is scared of going abroad because he is “too frightened to drive on the right” is worried about the usefulness of his passport

    Mate, you don’t need a passport to get your coach to Hove
    Ha ha I wondered when that would come up again. You really are a card, Leon.
This discussion has been closed.