Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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On topic I suspect any 2022 general election would be a black swan kind of event. 18 to 1 doesn't seem massive value.2
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We’ve already seen signs that Truss is going to have problems.
She’s announced a policy which doesn’t make any sense and will involve cutting the pay of basically everyone and she thinks two internets can operate in parallel.0 -
It's the first tweet in a reasonably long thread, where she goes into some of the nuances later. Sweeping generalisations are about all you can fit into the character limit of a single tweet. It's a facile criticism to make of a tweet.Nigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.0 -
This leadership campaign is turning into a carnival of terrible policies
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1554370557809942534
https://twitter.com/BenZaranko/status/15542196928642785312 -
Surely it's unlevelling down?Nigelb said:
I'm impressed that she's chosen to differentiate herself from Boris so early on.Eabhal said:Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?
I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).
Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.2 -
Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.LostPassword said:
I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.Jonathan said:Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.
If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.
Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.0 -
So, Truss’s claimed savings are fantastical and her campaign has already had to admit they got their sums wrong in places. She’s going to be worse than Johnson, isn’t she?2
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Indeed the RedfieldWilton poll going Truss 37% and Starmer 36% as preferred PM would give the Tories a majority in England if matched by voting intention with 303 seats. Labour would have 260 seats after the boundary changes.HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, especially if the next general election gives the Tories a majority in England but Labour and the SNP most seats in the UK overall. Very possible under PM Truss.SouthamObserver said:
No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.HYUFD said:
So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.SouthamObserver said:Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.
While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway
However Labour and the SNP combined would be more than the Tories with 312
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=36&LIB=12&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=24&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=46.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
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Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
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I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.Cookie said:No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.
So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.0 -
It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this caseNigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.0 -
Jarring moment at Exeter hustings was when Sunak said Truss’s Australia free trade deal was bad for GB farmers but he wouldn’t renegotiate because it would be wrong to rip up an international treaty. Hello! Paging Mr Sunak! NI Protocol Bill is holding for you on the other line
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1554198526246125573?t=9Yfo854lQKrtcML8wv3iPw&s=191 -
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise
The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.
“The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.
This isn't going to end well, is it?0 -
In 2016, most people in NI voted to Remain (56%).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, especially if the next general election gives the Tories a majority in England but Labour and the SNP most seats in the UK overall. Very possible under PM Truss.SouthamObserver said:
No need for an English Parliament when you control the UK one. As you say, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish can do nothing about it.HYUFD said:
So what, they can't do anything about it as the future of the Union is reserved to the UK government and Westminster.SouthamObserver said:Truss has merely confirmed that the Tories are a populist English nationalist party who view the Union entirely through a right-wing, English prism. It’s been pretty obvious for a while. Now it’s undeniable. Of course, this is a gift to Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. They will all absolutely love it.
While Truss has not even proposed an English Parliament to match the Parliaments Wales, Scotland and NI have which really would be English nationalism
In 2017 the party the largest number in NI voted for backed the Tories anyway0 -
Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?0
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I couldn't think of any other theoretical policy, related to the cost of living crisis, that she might lose a Commons vote on.Sandpit said:
Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.LostPassword said:
I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.Jonathan said:Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.
If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.
Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.0 -
Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!4 -
It it's going to end at all, it would be somethingtlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise
The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.
“The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.
This isn't going to end well, is it?4 -
Sure. Becoming a republic, voting Libdem amongst others.FF43 said:The idea, or the straw that some of us are clutching, is after Truss has finished pandering to her crackpot base, she will turn out to be a competent prime minister. To test this idea, has Truss suggested anything sensible that might be retained once all the red meat has been consumed?
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This week! Announcement on Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates1 -
Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?
1 -
People with existing houses bought a while back will be fine as the nominal value will just dip a bit from the currently overinflated number but it's probably a very bad time to buy tbh.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise
The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.
“The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.
This isn't going to end well, is it?0 -
Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.TheScreamingEagles said:Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.
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Perhaps, but it seems a counterproductive argument to dismiss perhaps half of your potential allies.LostPassword said:
It's the first tweet in a reasonably long thread, where she goes into some of the nuances later. Sweeping generalisations are about all you can fit into the character limit of a single tweet. It's a facile criticism to make of a tweet.Nigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
Most people don't read whole threads.
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Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?Selebian said:
I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.Cookie said:No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.
So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.2 -
Oh that is going to cost the Tory party a few Redwall seats at the next election - whether it's implemented or not.Cyclefree said:
Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.TheScreamingEagles said:Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.
1 -
The BoE yet again shifted risks back onto the taxpayer yesterday to boost asset values for pensioners at the expense of those working with the removal of stress tests for mortgages. What is the point of having stress tests when rates are stable and then remove them when things get volatile! Bonkers, unless there was never any intent to have responsible lending without the state being a backstop to protect the market.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise
The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.
“The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.
This isn't going to end well, is it?
Virtually no publicity about this, and what there is frames it as a boost for house buyers - all it means is they will pay more!2 -
In fairness to Sturgeon - and that's not something I ever want to write again - I don't know many politicians who are exactly shrinking violet types.CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!0 -
Though that policy strangely quiet in the news at the moment. Unless Lab also staying quiet as they think Liz best opponent to go up againstCyclefree said:
Not to mention her stupid "let's cut pay for everyone outside London, level down and exacerbate shortages" policy announcement.TheScreamingEagles said:Only an idiot would call a general election with the way energy bills the way they are and are trending.
0 -
"The boost to consumer sentiment created by the stunning victory of the England team in the recent European Association Football tournament means that we now judge the economy can withstand the 100 basis point increase in Bank of England policy rates that we are announcing today..."Sandpit said:
This week! Announcement on Thursday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, when does the Bank of England next fail to increase interest rates sufficiently?
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates3 -
It is indeed one of few things on which she could lose a vote.LostPassword said:
I couldn't think of any other theoretical policy, related to the cost of living crisis, that she might lose a Commons vote on.Sandpit said:
Nationalising the O&G supply is a real prisoners’ dilemma. It’s great for the UK if the UK does it - but if Biden does the same ahead of the November mid-terms, the whole of Europe is screwed this winter.LostPassword said:
I think that's a hard case to make when she has a Commons majority of around 80. The only scenario she could make it work would be where she had lost a Commons vote on doing something to fix the cost of living crisis - say nationalising BP & Shell with zero compensation in order to sell oil and gas to British consumers at pre-crisis prices - which she could then take to the electorate.Jonathan said:Truss’ best hope is going before the economic and political crisis are solved , having somehow demonstrated that she has what it takes to fix them and (unfairly) painting Labour as a risk to recovery.
If she goes too soon before establishing her credentials or too late having either failed or succeeded in resolving the crisis she is done for.
Otherwise it will be - why aren't you doing stuff to help with the cost of living instead of wasting time with an election? You have a large majority, you can pretty much do whatever you (or we) want.
Everyone needs to agree it’s a really stupid thing to do, and work together on keeping the lights on as they are in arming the Ukranians.
The real worry is that there is serious discussion in the States about export bans, to “Protect American consumers and businesses this winter”. Any sniff of anyone else doing the same, will simply add to the calls Stateside. It’s going to require careful diplomacy to avoid economic nationalism.0 -
Yes, and particularly given the increasing batshitosity of American politics.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
Silicon Valley leaders are generally fairly liberal, Thiel and Musk aside. Silicon Valley engineers certainly are.
It's not hard to see how a country which elected Trump, nearly had an armed overthrow of the Capitol, and overturned Roe vs Wade now looks less appealing to an affluent, educated Silicon Valley engineer.0 -
I can't believe I'm arguing on the same side as Dan Hodges about an opinion poll.0
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That was on Sky News yesterday morning, but it hasn't received anywhere near as much attention as it deserves.noneoftheabove said:
The BoE yet again shifted risks back onto the taxpayer yesterday to boost asset values for pensioners at the expense of those working with the removal of stress tests for mortgages. What is the point of having stress tests when rates are stable and then remove them when things get volatile! Bonkers, unless there was never any intent to have responsible lending without the state being a backstop to protect the market.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise
The UK housing market remained buoyant in July with price growth accelerating to an annual rate of 11%, according to the country’s biggest building society.
“The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows,” the Nationwide chief economist, Robert Gardner, said.
This isn't going to end well, is it?
Virtually no publicity about this, and what there is frames it as a boost for house buyers - all it means is they will pay more!0 -
It is a question of which hat Nicola Sturgeon is wearing.CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
Insulting the head of the SNP is one thing. Saying the First Minister of Scotland can and should be ignored is something else, and damn stupid if you are trying to strengthen the union.2 -
Exactly. And moving your HQ to Texas or Florida now looks much less appealing after the Roe v Wade overturn. Will your many female staff members want to live in these places? I doubt itEl_Capitano said:
Yes, and particularly given the increasing batshitosity of American politics.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
Silicon Valley leaders are generally fairly liberal, Thiel and Musk aside. Silicon Valley engineers certainly are.
It's not hard to see how a country which elected Trump, nearly had an armed overthrow of the Capitol, and overturned Roe vs Wade now looks less appealing to an affluent, educated Silicon Valley engineer.
So London will benefit. And your holidays will be so much more interesting - the Med rather than Mexico. Paris rather than Montreal2 -
Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.Leon said:
It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this caseNigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.
Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.
Meanwhile, in the US
Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.
He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/15540958146114437120 -
When Sturgeon is trying to break up the Union as her priority number 1 it certainly isn'tDecrepiterJohnL said:
It is a question of which hat Nicola Sturgeon is wearing.CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
Insulting the head of the SNP is one thing. Saying the First Minister of Scotland can and should be ignored is something else, and damn stupid if you are trying to strengthen the union.0 -
Rishi dips below 4/1 to be next prime minister but is nearly 9/2 for next party leader. Remember to check both markets (and the bookmakers) before playing.DecrepiterJohnL said:Betfair next prime minister
1.22 Liz Truss 82%
5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%
Next Conservative leader
1.22 Liz Truss 82%
5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%
As noted previously, some bookmakers have bigger prices against Rishi.
Betfair next prime minister
1.24 Liz Truss 81%
4.8 Rishi Sunak 21%
Next Conservative leader
1.23 Liz Truss 81%
5.4 Rishi Sunak 19%0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
You can accuse Nicola Sturgeon of several things. "Attention-seeker" isn't one. Liz Truss on the other hand ...CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
That abject lack of awareness can also be seen when Truss insults Keir Starmer as a "plastic patriot"0 -
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.1 -
That you nickname for Liz ?CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!0 -
The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg0 -
Aside from the Shuttle.... (yes, the bit about on end)Pulpstar said:
I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.JosiasJessop said:
Not the first time I've done that...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Now look what you've done. They've called it off.JosiasJessop said:Rocketlab about to launch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
* On it's end
@JosiasJessop - https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1553431057374003201 - Tory Bruno now has engines.....
https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron is the project to watch, at the moment. I think they have a very good shot at building it and making it work.0 -
The populist nationalists beloved of Matthew Goodwin, Leon etc. are almost everywhere in the first rank of Putinistas. With the exception of Meloni.Nigelb said:
Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.Leon said:
It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this caseNigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.
Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.
Meanwhile, in the US
Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.
He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/15540958146114437121 -
You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.kjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.2 -
The Nancy Pelosi weapon system is a serious, strategic system - probably equivalent in throw weight to 0.08 Duke of EdinburghsNigelb said:"Imagine being scared of Nancy Pelosi."
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554347053030973440
#China has launched exercises near #Taiwan ahead of Nancy #Pelosi's supposed visit.0 -
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.
2 -
I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.Simon_Peach said:The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg
@Leon must condemn them immediately.0 -
Special pleading and all that but Truss is being disingenuous about her Civil Service cuts programme. The number of civil servants in Whitehall is tiny and even if you scoop up those who can properly be called Civil Servants in the regions the entire annual pay bill is less than the amount she expects to save. What she really means is public sector cuts but she can’t say that because it includes nurses, teachers and police officers. I wonder how cutting two holiday days from NHS workers will go down.4
-
To be scrupulously fair Narcisisstic Lizzy prefers to be photgraphed by others (usually in the employ of the government) rather than selfies. Actually, that's a point, will she be taking a scythe to the government publicity operation?Nigelb said:
That you nickname for Liz ?CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!
0 -
Yeah, Tory's been doing much more of BO's PR than BO.Malmesbury said:
Aside from the Shuttle.... (yes, the bit about on end)Pulpstar said:
I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.JosiasJessop said:
Not the first time I've done that...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Now look what you've done. They've called it off.JosiasJessop said:Rocketlab about to launch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
* On it's end
@JosiasJessop - https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1553431057374003201 - Tory Bruno now has engines.....
https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron is the project to watch, at the moment. I think they have a very good shot at building it and making it work.
Neutron is one to watch, but they've got a mountain to climb IMO. Their launch and market experience will be invaluable, though.0 -
I am more shocked that people still read a paper owned by the BarclayNigelb said:
I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.Simon_Peach said:The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg
@Leon must condemn them immediately.
Brother and likewise people still read the hateful Dail Mail.1 -
You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..SouthamObserver said:
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.1 -
That’s as much disengenuous tosh as the Guardian version from yesterday. The Henley rankings have nothing to do with the colour of passports, the stamps in them, or whether you can use e-gates.Simon_Peach said:The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg
The Henley ranking is purely derived by the requirement, or otherwise, for a visa-in-advance. UK has dropped from 190 countries, to 187 countries, where citizens can visit with either no visa or one on arrival. None of the changes involve anything to do with the EU.
A much better piece on the Henley Index https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/3 -
Oh I just noticed @hyufd posted this on the last thread in reply to me:
kjh said:
Re being a maths genius, sadly I am not and there are several here who I'm sure would run circles around me, although I can appreciate why you might think so having shown daily your complete inability to understand the most basic elements of logic and statistics.
@hyufd said:
And a patronising final paragraph to match from the grammar school educated kjh, who got to Manchester University from that grammar school
OK
a) It might be patronising, but you started it by being very rude to me which was uncalled for. I was not rude to you. You deserved it. So much for you always being polite. I have no idea what got into you to make such an uncalled for rude comment.
b) I got to University on my own merits, not the schools. I changed schools because I had to. The Secondary Modern did not do A levels. I was already at the standard required, hence being fast streamed and taking A levels after 1 year of 6th form. So you final statement was, as usual, completely inaccurate.0 -
Weekly deaths update:
https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77
COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.
Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average
01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 9350 -
@HYUFD assertion that good comprehensives are de facto Secondary Modern schools illustrates his woeful ignorance of the education system… one hopes that he has no responsibility for children's services in his council role…kjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.3 -
Whatevskjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.2 -
The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following thingsPulpstar said:
I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.JosiasJessop said:
Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper...Pulpstar said:
I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.JosiasJessop said:
Not the first time I've done that...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Now look what you've done. They've called it off.JosiasJessop said:Rocketlab about to launch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
* On it's end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
1) Big projects going to the right companies
2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
4) National prestige
...
1021) Spaceflight
Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..
So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.1 -
African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output
Oh good.0 -
The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.eek said:
You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..SouthamObserver said:
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.
0 -
Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
1 -
The argument is liberal democracy vs the authoritarians.EPG said:
The populist nationalists beloved of Matthew Goodwin, Leon etc. are almost everywhere in the first rank of Putinistas. With the exception of Meloni.Nigelb said:
Though the parliamentary left in this country are foursquare behind Ukraine.Leon said:
It’s more the British, German, Italian left than the left in America, in this caseNigelb said:
It's also wrong.LostPassword said:This is quite a damning, heartfelt thread about the reaction of the Western Left to the war in Ukraine.
Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦
@rynkrynk
Back when I was a sociology student at Kyiv-Mohyla, I was stupidly, shamelessly enamoured with the collective western Left. I dreamed of a day when Ukrainian academia would have widespread and popular discussions about colonialism, privilege, and all of the -isms. I read essays
7:56 PM · Aug 1, 2022
...
https://twitter.com/rynkrynk/status/1554179197618331648
There's no such thing as 'the collective western Left' when it comes to the invasion.
They are as divided as is the western right - some of whom are pretty well active supporters of Putin.
And as noted above, the German and Italian right are just as, if not more likely to be Putin enablers.
Turning an argument about democracy, and the right of independent nations to exist unmolested, into a left/right issue is stupid, IMO.
Meanwhile, in the US
Sen. Hawley announces he’ll oppose adding Finland & Sweden to NATO, citing the need to prioritize Asia/China over Europe/Russia.
He might be the only senator to oppose the treaty, depending what Mike Lee does. Rand Paul has said he’ll vote “present.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1554095814611443712
It cuts across the left/right divide; I'm happy to credit those from either side who support Ukraine.1 -
I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.SouthamObserver said:
The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.eek said:
You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..SouthamObserver said:
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.
You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...0 -
It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/4o/fg4p0053n03d.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/v9/v9wz0y1fuogr.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/9bwkv2ahy60e.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pl/4dymdjrw27pr.jpeg" alt="" />
https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ <— actually useful article on the Henley Index.1 -
Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
2 -
Because there is nothing people dislike more than abandoning long held and deeply cherished prejudices.squareroot2 said:
I am more shocked that people still read a paper owned by the BarclayNigelb said:
I'm shocked that the Telegraph is picking up Guardian scare stories.Simon_Peach said:The Telegraph reporting that the “strength” of the U.K. passport has fallen from 1st to 13th in the Henley rankings, which isn’t what a couple of posters were suggesting yesterday. No idea who is right…
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1554332496258555904?s=21&t=kd0NLu57wcUFbVqs5AGAHg
@Leon must condemn them immediately.
Brother and likewise people still read the hateful Dail Mail.
Farage and similar grievance mongers will always find a market.1 -
You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..Leon said:
Whatevskjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.1 -
also known as "tripping up".....IanB2 said:
Surely it's unlevelling down?Nigelb said:
I'm impressed that she's chosen to differentiate herself from Boris so early on.Eabhal said:Isn't the public sector pay policy announced by Truss going to overheat London even more, while depressing investment elsewhere?
I'd have thought the "levelling up" agenda would suggest the opposite. It depends whether public sector professionals on decent pay can stimulate a local economy (Treasury to Darlington, for example).
Going for levelling down in place of levelling up is perhaps not optimal, though.0 -
"Nick Trend" seems to be a rather appropriate name, all he does is nick trends off Twitter without understanding them.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
2 -
Pork barrel politics isn't confined to NASA projects in Congress - or even to the US.Malmesbury said:
The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following thingsPulpstar said:
I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.JosiasJessop said:
Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper...Pulpstar said:
I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.JosiasJessop said:
Not the first time I've done that...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Now look what you've done. They've called it off.JosiasJessop said:Rocketlab about to launch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
* On it's end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
1) Big projects going to the right companies
2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
4) National prestige
...
1021) Spaceflight
Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..
So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.0 -
I think two things are true at the same time - Nicola Sturgeon is an attention seeker, and plays whatever games she can. Her daily covid briefings, always before the UK government, were n example, as was her leaking of privileged information about the covid situation ahead of UK government. And yet she should also not be ignored as the she is the elected leader of the Scottish Parliament.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Overconfidence or perhaps a sign of the debasement of politics in recent decades, where policies are replaced by slogans, judged by the number of headlines they generate.Razedabode said:I had slightly (very slightly) warmed to Liz T over the last week or so.
Then we’re seen a weird scattering of right wing policies, particularly the usual “cut the civil service” stuff, pay by region (how’s that for levelling up?) and this strange pitch toward Scotland
Must be over confidence.
For instance, anyone who had given any thought to levelling up, which is government policy, will have seen that lower regional pay is inimical to it. Likewise anyone who had given any thought to strengthening the union would not have advocated ignoring Scotland's First Minister. But modern politicians are neither asked nor expected to think, simply to tow the party line, and so they can hold any number of contradictory positions.
Once again, the English majority are ill served by the devolution settlement.1 -
2
-
The article you've linked to contradicts itself:Sandpit said:
It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/4o/fg4p0053n03d.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/v9/v9wz0y1fuogr.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/9bwkv2ahy60e.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pl/4dymdjrw27pr.jpeg" alt="" />
https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
"Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth
and
"The 10 most powerful passports are below.
Japan, 192 destinations
Singapore, 192
Germany, 190
South Korea, 190
Finland, 189
Italy, 189
Luxembourg, 189
Spain, 189
Austria, 188
Denmark, 188"
0 -
Dan Hodges is very angry about a poll, not that kind of poll0
-
But NASA projects are the undoubted Gold Standard of Pork Barrel politics.Keystone said:
Pork barrel politics isn't confined to NASA projects in Congress - or even to the US.Malmesbury said:
The problem for NASA is that the coalition of politicians that give them their budget are very very keen on the following thingsPulpstar said:
I'm shocked NASA are going to be launching anything. Mind you James Webb is up at it's lagrange point now and that felt like it was never going to happen.JosiasJessop said:
Orbital rocket, please. Some of us remember the DC-X Clipper...Pulpstar said:
I know it's not cool any more but https://www.spacex.com/launches/ 171 total launches, 133 landings & 109 reflights. Noone else has even landed or reflown a rocket once*.JosiasJessop said:
Not the first time I've done that...DecrepiterJohnL said:
Now look what you've done. They've called it off.JosiasJessop said:Rocketlab about to launch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6PxSE29hQU
Still, at least I'm interested in more than just whatever SpaceX is doing.
Incidentally, the SLS may well fly later this month - perhaps as early as the 29th. That will be amazing to see, especially if it launches before SpaceX's SS/SH combo.
* On it's end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls
1) Big projects going to the right companies
2) These big companies, in turn, give the actual work to to a pyramid of smaller companies below them.
3) Under the FAR contracts, various special interest groups get preferential treatment in awarding contracts. So the politicians get to reward their favourite constituents.
4) National prestige
...
1021) Spaceflight
Under FAR contracting rules, profits are capped. Per level of outsourcing. So, if you can only make 20% on the contract, you make it as big as possible. So if the guy below you in the food chain of out sourcing makes his bit more expensive, you can make more profit - since the overall size of the project has gone up. For extra points, you have a web of ownership, where you own companies (or part own them) at various levels in the pyramid..
So the perfect contract never ends, gets bigger and bigger and doesn't actually produce any of the dangerous, difficult spaceflight stuff.
The SLS (Senate Launch System) was designed and produced across every single one of the 48 contiguous States, and not by accident.0 -
Yep, good point. Even if there is the desire, time is tight for 2022.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?Selebian said:
I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.Cookie said:No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.
So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.1 -
I'd prefer a case for greatly increased overseas aid for financing renewables in Africa.IshmaelZ said:African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output
Oh good.
If developed nations are serious about addressing climate change, that it essential.
And would (probably, if done right) be of great benefit to the entire world economy.2 -
Look down to the full table, they don't understand how to use ordinal numbers where there are ties.Benpointer said:
The article you've linked to contradicts itself:Sandpit said:
It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/4o/fg4p0053n03d.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/v9/v9wz0y1fuogr.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/9bwkv2ahy60e.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pl/4dymdjrw27pr.jpeg" alt="" />
https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
"Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth
and
"The 10 most powerful passports are below.
Japan, 192 destinations
Singapore, 192
Germany, 190
South Korea, 190
Finland, 189
Italy, 189
Luxembourg, 189
Spain, 189
Austria, 188
Denmark, 188"2 -
Sometimes it is best to let previous threads die. Otherwise we end up with ongoing feuds, and it is not as if there is much more to say about grammar schools, and even if there is, the subject will recur organically in due course.kjh said:
You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..Leon said:
Whatevskjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.2 -
Just to put those Week 29 figures in perspective, here are the number of deaths in Week 29 going back to 2010:tlg86 said:Weekly deaths update:
https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77
COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.
Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average
01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935
Week ended | All deaths
23-Jul-10 | 8,261
22-Jul-11 | 8,500
20-Jul-12 | 8,684
19-Jul-13 | 8,790
18-Jul-14 | 9,119
17-Jul-15 | 8,802
22-Jul-16 | 9,350
21-Jul-17 | 9,113
20-Jul-18 | 9,127
19-Jul-19 | 9,080
17-Jul-20 | 8,823
23-Jul-21 | 9,744
22-Jul-22 | 10,978
That figure of 10,978 deaths (745 COVID deaths) in the week ending 22 July 2022 is more than 1,000 more than last year (327 COVID deaths) and over 1,628 more than any other year (2016).0 -
That made me laugh and for those not on the thread yesterday that was the term @hyufd used re the benefit of his private education.OnlyLivingBoy said:
You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.kjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.
I do wonder if there is more to it. By making himself known on PB he can be looked up on the council web site as an elected councillor. Is there an element of envy from a privileged public school boy of 40 living in a one bedroom flat, doing an average job, waiting for his rightly deserved inheritance, being outdone by an upstart from a Secondary School.0 -
One weird anomaly of the Henley ranking is the way they treat equals. So Japan and Singapore are #1, Germany and SK are #2, the next three are all #3 etc.Benpointer said:
The article you've linked to contradicts itself:Sandpit said:
It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/4o/fg4p0053n03d.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/v9/v9wz0y1fuogr.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/9bwkv2ahy60e.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pl/4dymdjrw27pr.jpeg" alt="" />
https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
"Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth
and
"The 10 most powerful passports are below.
Japan, 192 destinations
Singapore, 192
Germany, 190
South Korea, 190
Finland, 189
Italy, 189
Luxembourg, 189
Spain, 189
Austria, 188
Denmark, 188"1 -
As that FT article point out, talented staff in London are also an awful lot cheaper than in the USA, if you can find themeek said:
I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.SouthamObserver said:
The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.eek said:
You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..SouthamObserver said:
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.
You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...
On the same theme, London is quietly building a super impressive IT hub in King’s Cross. I knew that Google were opening a huge new HQ there, but I didn’t realise Meta have just unveiled their own quite dazzling King’s X HQ (their biggest outside the USA)
This is where the Instagram boss is going
https://www.dezeen.com/2022/03/31/meta-kings-cross-office-bennetts-associates/
King’s X will soon be an amazing place to be. Google, Meta, St Martin’s College, UCL, the Wellcome, the Francis Crick Institute, the British library, the Guardian, Deepmind, Expedia, Samsung, the Alan Turing Institute, and dozens of others. A glorious collision of talents and skills. I rather envy young people who get to work and play there
2 -
Alternatively, you can ascribe much of that increase to people following the Conservative Party leadership election and losing the will to live.tlg86 said:
Just to put those Week 29 figures in perspective, here are the number of deaths in Week 29 going back to 2010:tlg86 said:Weekly deaths update:
https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77
COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.
Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average
01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935
Week ended | All deaths
23-Jul-10 | 8,261
22-Jul-11 | 8,500
20-Jul-12 | 8,684
19-Jul-13 | 8,790
18-Jul-14 | 9,119
17-Jul-15 | 8,802
22-Jul-16 | 9,350
21-Jul-17 | 9,113
20-Jul-18 | 9,127
19-Jul-19 | 9,080
17-Jul-20 | 8,823
23-Jul-21 | 9,744
22-Jul-22 | 10,978
That figure of 10,978 deaths (745 COVID deaths) in the week ending 22 July 2022 is more than 1,000 more than last year (327 COVID deaths) and over 1,628 more than any other year (2016).5 -
Point taken. Please note my subsequent comment was made before I saw your post. My anger was not so much about the Grammar school debate, but hyufd's completely unnecessary rudeness on the last thread which made me respond.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Sometimes it is best to let previous threads die. Otherwise we end up with ongoing feuds, and it is not as if there is much more to say about grammar schools, and even if there is, the subject will recur organically in due course.kjh said:
You really do set yourself up sometimes @Leon don't you? Remember what you said to me the other day when I replied to a post you made to @kinabalu - You said I'm not talking to you. Well actually you said a lot more than that. Pot and kettle? Of course being an open forum I welcome all responses but a few more words might be useful..Leon said:
Whatevskjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.1 -
Ah right, and yes, weird. Henley ranking is clearly collated by an innumerate team. Probably all Oxbridge arts graduates.Sandpit said:
One weird anomaly of the Henley ranking is the way they treat equals. So Japan and Singapore are #1, Germany and SK are #2, the next three are all #3 etc.Benpointer said:
The article you've linked to contradicts itself:Sandpit said:
It’s still disengenuous tosh, whether it’s the Guardian or the Telegraph publishing it.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/4o/fg4p0053n03d.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/v9/v9wz0y1fuogr.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/9bwkv2ahy60e.jpeg" alt="" />
img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pl/4dymdjrw27pr.jpeg" alt="" />
https://www.atlasandboots.com/travel-blog/most-powerful-passports/ — actually useful article on the Henley Index.
"Japan and Singapore have the world’s most powerful passports with the UK and US in joint-sixth
and
"The 10 most powerful passports are below.
Japan, 192 destinations
Singapore, 192
Germany, 190
South Korea, 190
Finland, 189
Italy, 189
Luxembourg, 189
Spain, 189
Austria, 188
Denmark, 188"
Edit: I think you meant to say "the next four are all #3 etc" ;-)1 -
That’s LiztagramNigelb said:
That you nickname for Liz ?CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss says Nicola Sturgeon is an attention-seeker. Of course, a PM can't ignore a First Minister, even saying won't be a referendum (and there won't, the Scots don't want one) involves some form of engagement. But will now be an extremely sanctimonious row in Scotland...
It will be said Truss has insulted Scotland. She has done no such thing. The SNP is not the same thing as Scotland. More than half Scotland doesn't like the SNP. An attack on Boris Johnson isn't an attack on England. He isn't the figurehead...
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1554377955949830145
Elsie McSelfie an attention seeker? Never!1 -
This is a terrible bet. She would become the shortest serving PM in history, beating Canning's 119 days (ignoring joke candidates Bath and Waldegrave) and have to resign as party leader, or look ridiculous. She would have to be 10 points ahead to even think about it.Selebian said:
Yep, good point. Even if there is the desire, time is tight for 2022.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Consider the practicalities of calling an election this year. The new Prime Minister takes office on 6th September (after the result is announced the day before). Now, assume you do not want a Christmas Eve election, so you need to get it out of the way by mid-December. Even a short campaign, say six weeks, means dissolving parliament in October, only a month or so after taking office. Is a month enough time for a honeymoon to be reflected in the opinion polls and establish some resilience?Selebian said:
I tend to agree that it might be a value loser. But obfind those very hard to assess. It's unlikely. Is it more or less than 10% chance? Not sure. If it's anywhere near 10% then a value bet. But for me it could just as easily be 5% and no value.Cookie said:No, she very probably won't, but 18/1 seems like value.
So, I'll sit this one out, as I tend to do with long odds unlikely things unless I see potential for trading value (i.e. I don't know if it will happen, bit do think the odds will come in). Maybe there's trading value here, there will be speculation if there's a polling boost.
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The second to last paragraph of this thread header is very misleading and OGH should know better than to promote such myths. Democratic legitimacy has always derived from the election of MPs not from who they choose to be Prime Minister. If they are not happy with her then they can vote her down and choose someone else. No General Election is necessary.
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Always think that this trend means Legal and General shares are a good buy given they take a lot of wholesale risk on pension liabilities taking on the risk of other big pension schemes as a core of their business. Also any plc with a big defined pension scheme (all other things being equal)tlg86 said:
Just to put those Week 29 figures in perspective, here are the number of deaths in Week 29 going back to 2010:tlg86 said:Weekly deaths update:
https://tinyurl.com/2p96kv77
COVID deaths up to 745, which is the highest they've been since April. Non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average also up to 935, which may suggest a bit of an impact from the hot weather on 18 and 19 July.
Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average
01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
01-Jul-22 | 9,229 | 332 | 10,025 | 796
08-Jul-22 | 9,304 | 423 | 9,809 | 505
15-Jul-22 | 9,402 | 585 | 9,930 | 528
22-Jul-22 | 9,298 | 745 | 10,233 | 935
Week ended | All deaths
23-Jul-10 | 8,261
22-Jul-11 | 8,500
20-Jul-12 | 8,684
19-Jul-13 | 8,790
18-Jul-14 | 9,119
17-Jul-15 | 8,802
22-Jul-16 | 9,350
21-Jul-17 | 9,113
20-Jul-18 | 9,127
19-Jul-19 | 9,080
17-Jul-20 | 8,823
23-Jul-21 | 9,744
22-Jul-22 | 10,978
That figure of 10,978 deaths (745 COVID deaths) in the week ending 22 July 2022 is more than 1,000 more than last year (327 COVID deaths) and over 1,628 more than any other year (2016).0 -
You would rarely need to. I am not in anyway defending the politics of places like Texas, but there is a strong local talent pool at all levels. And where there isn't, money usually solves the problem.eek said:
I wasn't talking about the talent pool - I'm talking about the management.SouthamObserver said:
The point is that there is little requirement for people to relocate as there is a strong local talent pool.eek said:
You might well have done - but I'm hearing a lot of stories where US firms are switching future expansion plans away from Texas / Florida as people are no longer willing to relocate there..SouthamObserver said:
The digital economy is one area in which London can definitely prosper outside of the EU - as long as we ensure the UK retains data adequacy and has a good supply of IT talent on tap.Leon said:Because Brexit part 297
Instagram are moving their functional HQ to London
“Instagram head Adam Mosseri to relocate to London”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f240367-b199-425b-adc3-0526744e3677
(££)
The article hints that this is part of the drive to combat TikTok, and that the NYC and SF offices will be downgraded as a result
Intriguingly, another reason given is the personal desire of the boss to “live in London”
I’ve wondered recently if this might become a thing. Prolonged instability and rising crime in big American cities will drive rich Americans (and their companies) to other cities. It’s always presumed these will be Miami and Austin etc
But if you want an enormous world city that speaks English and has lots of culture you wouldn’t choose Miami or Austin. You’d choose london. And you’re an hour or two from anywhere in Europe
FWIW, we just opened an office in Austin having acquired a business there. A lot of tech companies are opening up in and around the city, and the university is very well thought of. We can learn a lot of lessons from the US about how to create tech hubs around universities. They can be a major tool for levelling up in the UK given that we have very good ones in just about every region of the country. But it will take concerted, long-term investment - and far better infrastructure than we have now.
You try and convince a 30 year old wife to move to Texas or a 40 year old mother with girls...
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No, as I also said I passed the 11+ and you didn't even if you got into a grammar at 16.kjh said:
That made me laugh and for those not on the thread yesterday that was the term @hyufd used re the benefit of his private education.OnlyLivingBoy said:
You lack his "social cachet". You should be grateful that he deigns to grace you with his condescension.kjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.
I do wonder if there is more to it. By making himself known on PB he can be looked up on the council web site as an elected councillor. Is there an element of envy from a privileged public school boy of 40 living in a one bedroom flat, doing an average job, waiting for his rightly deserved inheritance, being outdone by an upstart from a Secondary School.
However I generally don't play personal games as I come here for the
politics not personal issues. I couldn't care less if you are a billionaire or on universal credit as far as discussing politics goes. In say case I have sold my flat and my wife and I are buying a house together not that it makes the slightest difference to anyone on here2 -
The PB-er who is scared of going abroad because he is “too frightened to drive on the right” is worried about the usefulness of his passportOnlyLivingBoy said:
Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
Mate, you don’t need a passport to get your coach to Hove0 -
Fucksake, how long does it take to send BTC to the Darknet0
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Comprehensives that are not outstanding are little different to Secondary moderns yesSimon_Peach said:
@HYUFD assertion that good comprehensives are de facto Secondary Modern schools illustrates his woeful ignorance of the education system… one hopes that he has no responsibility for children's services in his council role…kjh said:
FPT (as usual I have been posting to an old thread when a new one is up and running)
@Mexicanpete said in response to @hyufd:
'Your last paragraph is not my experience. Nonetheless, let's assume you are right and I am wrong and a handful of council house kids hit the jackpot. Robert has made the excellent point that the 80% who fail the 11 plus could be subsequently lumbered with a sub standard education. That doesn't seem like value for money on anyone's metric.'
I made the same point in an earlier post and @hyufd's reply was that he didn't care. Those 75% of kids whether they go to a Comp or Secondary will end up in the same (presumably dead end) jobs. Very harsh. I also agree with you that it is not my experience that under-privileged kids get through to Grammars in any numbers anyway.
He also takes my success of getting to Uni as proof that Secondary schools work. He doesn't understand that I succeeded despite of it not because of it and there will always be these cases.
Also note the snide comments at the end of his comment to me. 'ego of self professed maths genius to match'. Completely uncalled for in a civilised discussion because I was showing how the 11 plus failed people. I had not been rude to him. It is as if he does not like the fact that someone from a status below him has been successful. @Richard_Tyndall made a comment sometime ago along the lines of him being in awe of power and dismissive of those without it. This certainly rings true. Knock back Catalans and Scots but give way to the IRA; admiration for dictators; admiration for the landed gentry, lawyers and doctors and Oxbridge and Russell Group Unis; dismissive of Secondary school kids and Comprehensives, but admire Grammar schools. The list goes on.
I guess we shouldn't try and aspire to get above our station. Does he really care for those poor kids who he says get into Grammar schools or is it just a cover to keep the plebs down.0 -
Ha ha I wondered when that would come up again. You really are a card, Leon.Leon said:
The PB-er who is scared of going abroad because he is “too frightened to drive on the right” is worried about the usefulness of his passportOnlyLivingBoy said:
Wow, things have got so bad that even the Tory graph has noticed.northern_monkey said:Insufficient belief from that hotbed of bitter Remoanerism, the Telegraph:
Mate, you don’t need a passport to get your coach to Hove0
