China announce military drills Aug 4 to 7 after Nancy departs. If they are invading, thats when.
Famous last words but I doubt it.
The question is why this is happening now in terms of the Chinese authorities.
The answer seems to lie in what's happening with the Covid restrictions in China.
I spoke to a company last week who is pulling out of China because their view is that things are never going back to normal. Xi has committed himself so much to a Zero Covid policy that the Chinese have locked themselves into a disastrous situation where they can't exit the policy without raising serious questions about Xi's / the CCP's judgement and actions.
That penny is starting to drop as the Chinese economic data rolls in and it's clear they will miss their 2022 growth targets.
So what to do? Well, sabre rattle is the answer. Biden was actually right in opposing Pelosi going (same with Trump) - there is nothing wrong with going, it's the timing that's the issue. Later in the year, the weather would have been against the Chinese. Now? Perfect time to launch your drills.
My man in China is increasingly of the view that the CCP replaces Xi in November, because without economic growth the party cannot cling to power, and the lockdowns mean no economic growth.
Whether this is achieved without bloodshed is another matter altogether.
Its not really a dictatorship in the sense that we know it, is it?
Xi isn't answerable to his people but he is answerable in some form?
People are going to keep coming. Risking their lives. When they get here they will not be going back.
It is high time we did something positive. Set up a processing centre in Northern France. Process the applications. Those who are approved then bring them over safely and those who are not we leave there and if they come via the boats return them.
We are hardly overrun with refugees and asylum seekers. We should really be a bit more humane in how we treat people in these situatuons
Spot on.
The threat of Rwanda has obviously had a huge impact (not!).
I hear they are replacing it with a new show called “Mock the weak” where each episode they take JRM and put him in stocks in Red Wall seats and provide various rotten foods to throw at him and point and laugh.
And it's really odd that people like Corbyn cannot recognise that. It is exactly the sort of colonialism they pretend to hate.
Just before the invasion, we were discussing China and Russia here. You may recall the pushback that some people had to my point that both China and Russia were (and are) imperial projects. Complete with heavy handed colonialism - smash the natives over the head until they become good little "civilised" people. Or good little dead people. Whichever.
I'm reluctant to keep correcting comments on Corbyn, who is pretty much yesterday's man, but he is vehemently opposed to the invasion for exactly that reason - he sees the invasion as an imperialist project. He's more or less a pacifist, so isn't keen on pouring arms into the conflict, but that doesn't mean he fails to recognise the invasion for the disaster that it is. See e.g. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corbyn-interview-russia-cease-fire/31838717.html
I think we tend to have two-dimensional views of people we disagree with. Left-wing pacifism has a very long tradition and it's got its supporters into trouble on a regular basis, notably in WW1 and in the 30s. It's not something I support - I'm willing to back military force where appropriate. But it's a caricature to see it as support for the other side - Corbyn is no more pro-Russian than Lansbury was pro-German. The right-wing equivalent, I suppose, is isolationism - "let other countries sort themselves out, not our business". That too is not necessarily symptomatic of support for the wrong side.
The thing is Corbyn isn't simply a principled pacifist, because he supports the right of Palestinians to use violence against the Israelis, and he has similarly justified the use of violence by the ANC and IRA.
His position is that British and American imperialism, by virtue of being the strongest imperialisms in the world, are therefore the most evil, and so the most urgent to oppose. Consequently British and American foreign policy is always wrong.
I've often found myself on the same side as Corbyn in opposing British and American military adventures abroad, but he's simply wrong on Ukraine. Ukrainians have as much right to self-defence as Palestinians.
It is very wrong to conflate (no doubt for reasons of national pride) British and American 'imperialism'. Our pre-eminence in world affairs ended with WW1 and was decisively demolished with WW2. We are not responsible for the current shitshow, however many British politicians like to be seen 'standing shoulder to shoulder' (the actual posture is somewhat more recumbent) with the US.
And Ukraine is overrun with American rapists
I have no idea what that comment is even supposed to mean.
You said the current problem was caused by US imperialism
I mocked that by pretending that the murderous rapists currently in Ukraine are US rather than your friends from Russia
The reason I focused on the rape side was because of your continued fuckwittery in believing that all the rape stories were made up by the sacked Ukrainian woman. That level of dangerous idiocy needs to be robustly challenged
I see. Well, firstly, you mistook my meaning, by 'the current shitshow', I meant the state of the world in general, not the Ukraine situation specifically.
'Oleksandra Kvitko (the Human Rights Ombudsman's daughter, who was employed on the hotline) also underwent several interrogations, Ukrainska Pravda reported. According to the outlet, she told prosecutors that over the course of a month and a half, her hotline had received over a thousand calls, 450 of which concerned child rape. Officials, however, were only able to find records of 92 calls.
Kvitko wasn’t able to provide any details, including who called her or what doctors she directed the victims to. There was nothing that would indicate these victims actually existed. She said that she told her mother the stories “over tea.”'
These are the stories that were repeated uncritically by the Western media - far more uncritically it turns out than the Ukrainian media.
You've consistently posted as though you think all the rape is made up. That may have been my insinuation rather than your implication, but you've never posted anything that didn't read like that to my eye.
If you're prepared to say that you think that there might well be a load of rape going on inflicted by these degenerate Russian troops, but you're not convinced that the sacked Ukrainian woman's case is strong, then I might be able to have some respect for your views on the topic
But I've never noticed you do that, nor noticed you condemn your side
China announce military drills Aug 4 to 7 after Nancy departs. If they are invading, thats when.
Famous last words but I doubt it.
The question is why this is happening now in terms of the Chinese authorities.
The answer seems to lie in what's happening with the Covid restrictions in China.
I spoke to a company last week who is pulling out of China because their view is that things are never going back to normal. Xi has committed himself so much to a Zero Covid policy that the Chinese have locked themselves into a disastrous situation where they can't exit the policy without raising serious questions about Xi's / the CCP's judgement and actions.
That penny is starting to drop as the Chinese economic data rolls in and it's clear they will miss their 2022 growth targets.
So what to do? Well, sabre rattle is the answer. Biden was actually right in opposing Pelosi going (same with Trump) - there is nothing wrong with going, it's the timing that's the issue. Later in the year, the weather would have been against the Chinese. Now? Perfect time to launch your drills.
My man in China is increasingly of the view that the CCP replaces Xi in November, because without economic growth the party cannot cling to power, and the lockdowns mean no economic growth.
Whether this is achieved without bloodshed is another matter altogether.
Its not really a dictatorship in the sense that we know it, is it?
Xi isn't answerable to his people but he is answerable in some form?
It's a dictatorship of some institutions, rather than a dictatorship of a single individual, but Xi has come closest, since Mao, of making it the latter rather than the former.
It means that it has some ability to flex in response to public pressure, in the way that a personal dictatorship would find more difficult. So the system in China is more robust than in Russia.
China announce military drills Aug 4 to 7 after Nancy departs. If they are invading, thats when.
Famous last words but I doubt it.
The question is why this is happening now in terms of the Chinese authorities.
The answer seems to lie in what's happening with the Covid restrictions in China.
I spoke to a company last week who is pulling out of China because their view is that things are never going back to normal. Xi has committed himself so much to a Zero Covid policy that the Chinese have locked themselves into a disastrous situation where they can't exit the policy without raising serious questions about Xi's / the CCP's judgement and actions.
That penny is starting to drop as the Chinese economic data rolls in and it's clear they will miss their 2022 growth targets.
So what to do? Well, sabre rattle is the answer. Biden was actually right in opposing Pelosi going (same with Trump) - there is nothing wrong with going, it's the timing that's the issue. Later in the year, the weather would have been against the Chinese. Now? Perfect time to launch your drills.
My man in China is increasingly of the view that the CCP replaces Xi in November, because without economic growth the party cannot cling to power, and the lockdowns mean no economic growth.
Whether this is achieved without bloodshed is another matter altogether.
Its not really a dictatorship in the sense that we know it, is it?
Xi isn't answerable to his people but he is answerable in some form?
Most dictators have stakeholders they need to keep happy. In general the Chinese Communist Party is corporatist. It's run like a big company. Xi Jinping upset that arrangement by taking on dictatorial powers. The CCP used to have an effective succession strategy where a president would be elected for 10 years. His deputy was chosen at the time of his appointment. This ensured stability because the heir apparent always had an incentive to work with the incumbent, as he knew his time would come. It removed a potential locus of dissent. Under Xi there is no such orderly transfer of power.
Joe Saward @joesaward · 3m Alpine confirms Piastri, but there is no quote from Piastri. I smell a rat... A Green Notebook is coming to explain some of this!
That show was never the same after Frankie Boyle left.
Worse, according to a friend who is a producer in BBC Comedy, they replaced Frankie and many other middle-aged white males with lots of unfunny predictables chosen for their gender and skin tone. So the jokes weren't as funny and the audience numbers fell off a cliff.
Tokenism defeating itself, part CCXXVIII.
A shame - at its peak that show was the funniest I'd ever seen.
That show was never the same after Frankie Boyle left.
Worse, according to a friend who is a producer in BBC Comedy, they replaced Frankie and many other middle-aged white males with lots of unfunny predictables chosen for their gender and skin tone. So the jokes weren't as funny and the audience numbers fell off a cliff.
Tokenism defeating itself, part CCXXVIII.
ironic really - because most of the new comedians see it as a right of passage and a way of accessing a larger audience...
It will be tough but I'm increasingly of the view as well some sort of move will be made.
Xi won't back down on this, he can't. However, it's clear others in the CCP realise where this is heading.
I think the sabre rattling may win him time - although there is a risk that Xi feels so much under pressure it tips into something else - but he is running out of options.
China announce military drills Aug 4 to 7 after Nancy departs. If they are invading, thats when.
Famous last words but I doubt it.
The question is why this is happening now in terms of the Chinese authorities.
The answer seems to lie in what's happening with the Covid restrictions in China.
I spoke to a company last week who is pulling out of China because their view is that things are never going back to normal. Xi has committed himself so much to a Zero Covid policy that the Chinese have locked themselves into a disastrous situation where they can't exit the policy without raising serious questions about Xi's / the CCP's judgement and actions.
That penny is starting to drop as the Chinese economic data rolls in and it's clear they will miss their 2022 growth targets.
So what to do? Well, sabre rattle is the answer. Biden was actually right in opposing Pelosi going (same with Trump) - there is nothing wrong with going, it's the timing that's the issue. Later in the year, the weather would have been against the Chinese. Now? Perfect time to launch your drills.
My man in China is increasingly of the view that the CCP replaces Xi in November, because without economic growth the party cannot cling to power, and the lockdowns mean no economic growth.
Whether this is achieved without bloodshed is another matter altogether.
I guess when a massive brouhaha erupts, you have to make a choice to either double down or cut the offending issue off at the knees. This does politically look like the right decision with the fuss it kicked up, Liz will have to prep up a good answer when it inevitably comes up in the debates though. OTOH needling Sturgeon will probably go down very well with the Tory membership.
China announce military drills Aug 4 to 7 after Nancy departs. If they are invading, thats when.
Famous last words but I doubt it.
The question is why this is happening now in terms of the Chinese authorities.
The answer seems to lie in what's happening with the Covid restrictions in China.
I spoke to a company last week who is pulling out of China because their view is that things are never going back to normal. Xi has committed himself so much to a Zero Covid policy that the Chinese have locked themselves into a disastrous situation where they can't exit the policy without raising serious questions about Xi's / the CCP's judgement and actions.
That penny is starting to drop as the Chinese economic data rolls in and it's clear they will miss their 2022 growth targets.
So what to do? Well, sabre rattle is the answer. Biden was actually right in opposing Pelosi going (same with Trump) - there is nothing wrong with going, it's the timing that's the issue. Later in the year, the weather would have been against the Chinese. Now? Perfect time to launch your drills.
My man in China is increasingly of the view that the CCP replaces Xi in November, because without economic growth the party cannot cling to power, and the lockdowns mean no economic growth.
Whether this is achieved without bloodshed is another matter altogether.
Its not really a dictatorship in the sense that we know it, is it?
Xi isn't answerable to his people but he is answerable in some form?
It's still a bog standard dictatorship if it is a party cabal running things. Xi has made strides to returning it to a more cult of personality type, what with the abandonment of term limits for himself and so on, but it was just as much a dictatorial government before Xi's rise, and almost certainly still would be if the party managed to edge him out.
Even tyrants cannot act without any constraints, not forever, just check out the history of any authoritative state, including ours.
People are going to keep coming. Risking their lives. When they get here they will not be going back.
It is high time we did something positive. Set up a processing centre in Northern France. Process the applications. Those who are approved then bring them over safely and those who are not we leave there and if they come via the boats return them.
We are hardly overrun with refugees and asylum seekers. We should really be a bit more humane in how we treat people in these situatuons
The core problem is that international norms on asylum were not designed for a world of 8 billion people facing the global challenges we see today.
At present anyone with a legitimate claim has a de jure right to free movement almost anywhere on the planet. That's only sustainable if it's limited to a few political dissidents, not potentially hundreds of millions of people.
In my own quasi-humble semi-opinion, most important races on today's ballots are primaries for US House in three districts where Republican incumbents voted to impeach Trump after Trump-inspired/led/conspired January 2021 assault on US Capitol in effort to overturn Trump's losing the 2020 presidential election.
> MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.
> WA 3rd CD - Jaime Herrera Beutler is facing 8 opponents in (almost) all-mail Top Two primary, but only two matter, both also Republicans: Joe Kent, former Green Beret endorsed by Trump, and Heidi St John an evangelical religious conservative. Note that pro-JHB super-PAC is running ads attacking Kent as a former Bernie Bro (in 2016) in order to take knock down Kent's red-meat right-wing support. Since it's close to moral certainty that Top Two will be JHB and Kent, goal is to keep down Kent's vote and thus boost Herrera Beutler at the start of the general election campaign, in which Republicans will be spit, Democrats will vote for JHB (if they don't skip race with no D on ballot) and Independents will hold balance.
> WA 4th CD - Dan Newhouse is opposed by one Democrat and 6 other GOPers, including 2020 gubernatorial nominee and small town police chief Loren Culp. In this primary, superPAC backing Newhouse is running ads attacking Culp, with goal of knocking down his vote, to help ensure that Newhouse makes Top Two and possibly to knock Culp into third place and off the Fall ballot.
Personally IF yours truly had a vote in any of these races, I'd cast it for Meijer, Herrera Beutler or Newhouse. Because I'm a Democrat who puts country before party, and want to see ALL of the Republicans who had the courage to do the same at risk of their political positions and future careers.
Fact that the DCCC is trying to defeat Meijer in the primary in order to boost chances of Democrat winning in the general election, is to my way of thinking despicable.
Never have had much use for DCCC, and zero respect. They have now fallen below even THAT super-low standard.
The 'X was misrepresented' line is used so often it presumably works, and therefore we probably are all that thick.
At the least it is a) sometimes the case, though not as much as the whinging party pretends and b) gives a pretext for supporters to claim the issue is closed without admitting they/their darling messed up.
Her first major misstep, given she felt the need to break out this excuse, but she acted quickly to change reality.
People are going to keep coming. Risking their lives. When they get here they will not be going back.
It is high time we did something positive. Set up a processing centre in Northern France. Process the applications. Those who are approved then bring them over safely and those who are not we leave there and if they come via the boats return them.
We are hardly overrun with refugees and asylum seekers. We should really be a bit more humane in how we treat people in these situatuons
The core problem is that international norms on asylum were not designed for a world of 8 billion people facing the global challenges we see today.
At present anyone with a legitimate claim has a de jure right to free movement almost anywhere on the planet. That's only sustainable if it's limited to a few political dissidents, not potentially hundreds of millions of people.
That's probably true, and not helped when some will make an argument about not refusing people on grounds that mean literally anyone could come (eg 'Wouldn't you want to come if you came from Y, to escape poverty etc?), and while I might be in favour of a liberal policy on immigration, it's not unreasonable for nations to decide on limitations, and an argument which means said limit is potentially millions is not going to be well received as a practical measure.
People are going to keep coming. Risking their lives. When they get here they will not be going back.
It is high time we did something positive. Set up a processing centre in Northern France. Process the applications. Those who are approved then bring them over safely and those who are not we leave there and if they come via the boats return them.
We are hardly overrun with refugees and asylum seekers. We should really be a bit more humane in how we treat people in these situatuons
The core problem is that international norms on asylum were not designed for a world of 8 billion people facing the global challenges we see today.
At present anyone with a legitimate claim has a de jure right to free movement almost anywhere on the planet. That's only sustainable if it's limited to a few political dissidents, not potentially hundreds of millions of people.
It's interesting that, when the refugee conventions were written, homosexuality was illegal in Britain and some US States banned interracial marriage. These are now grounds for people to be granted refugee status in the UK and US.
No, Liz Truss has handled it quite well, abandoning the policy after just a few hours, and for half of those hours, people were asleep. Crucially, Truss ditched the policy before many voters would even have known there was a policy to ditch.
Liz Truss's big mistake was adopting the policy in the first place. Presumably it started life as a newspaper polemic from years gone by, like Boris's bendy banana scare stories, warmed over and punted to Liz by one of her more gullible supporters.
As a policy it fell apart almost immediately because the claimed savings imply a much wider scope than was originally spun, and because of the obvious contradictions with other government policies like levelling up. ETA as previously discussed, the rot at the heart of modern politics is the substitution of slogans for policies, so that Truss and her acolytes had considered how to operationalise this one, or indeed levelling up.
But all in all, Liz handled it well.
Nope Liz does detail even less than Bozo does and this is an example where it came back to bite her.
The original proposal seems to have come from a "blue sky thinking" project back in 2018 - where the headline figure would have appeared on page 1 followed by a detailed explanation on page 2-32 saying why it doesn't work.
Truss being Liz "TLDR" Truss just saw the headline figure...
Liz Truss' problem isn't doing detail. Those can be fixed. She doesn't do facts.
It sounds like a poorly written report to me. The key conclusions *should* be summarised in the opening pages. If the more granular detail contradicts the executive summary, it was a shit report.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62392774
Xi isn't answerable to his people but he is answerable in some form?
The threat of Rwanda has obviously had a huge impact (not!).
If you're prepared to say that you think that there might well be a load of rape going on inflicted by these degenerate Russian troops, but you're not convinced that the sacked Ukrainian woman's case is strong, then I might be able to have some respect for your views on the topic
But I've never noticed you do that, nor noticed you condemn your side
It means that it has some ability to flex in response to public pressure, in the way that a personal dictatorship would find more difficult. So the system in China is more robust than in Russia.
We are truly screwed. Get out if you can..
https://twitter.com/joesaward/status/1554502355508420610
Joe Saward
@joesaward
·
3m
Alpine confirms Piastri, but there is no quote from Piastri. I smell a rat... A Green Notebook is coming to explain some of this!
Tokenism defeating itself, part CCXXVIII.
A shame - at its peak that show was the funniest I'd ever seen.
It will be tough but I'm increasingly of the view as well some sort of move will be made.
Xi won't back down on this, he can't. However, it's clear others in the CCP realise where this is heading.
I think the sabre rattling may win him time - although there is a risk that Xi feels so much under pressure it tips into something else - but he is running out of options.
She obviously thinks we are all thick
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1554496664144076804?s=20&t=Z-BkcOOAdSRxiKZA5UV6ew
This does politically look like the right decision with the fuss it kicked up, Liz will have to prep up a good answer when it inevitably comes up in the debates though.
OTOH needling Sturgeon will probably go down very well with the Tory membership.
Even tyrants cannot act without any constraints, not forever, just check out the history of any authoritative state, including ours.
At present anyone with a legitimate claim has a de jure right to free movement almost anywhere on the planet. That's only sustainable if it's limited to a few political dissidents, not potentially hundreds of millions of people.
https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/07/28/first-look-august-2-primaries_1400.html
In my own quasi-humble semi-opinion, most important races on today's ballots are primaries for US House in three districts where Republican incumbents voted to impeach Trump after Trump-inspired/led/conspired January 2021 assault on US Capitol in effort to overturn Trump's losing the 2020 presidential election.
> MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.
> WA 3rd CD - Jaime Herrera Beutler is facing 8 opponents in (almost) all-mail Top Two primary, but only two matter, both also Republicans: Joe Kent, former Green Beret endorsed by Trump, and Heidi St John an evangelical religious conservative. Note that pro-JHB super-PAC is running ads attacking Kent as a former Bernie Bro (in 2016) in order to take knock down Kent's red-meat right-wing support. Since it's close to moral certainty that Top Two will be JHB and Kent, goal is to keep down Kent's vote and thus boost Herrera Beutler at the start of the general election campaign, in which Republicans will be spit, Democrats will vote for JHB (if they don't skip race with no D on ballot) and Independents will hold balance.
> WA 4th CD - Dan Newhouse is opposed by one Democrat and 6 other GOPers, including 2020 gubernatorial nominee and small town police chief Loren Culp. In this primary, superPAC backing Newhouse is running ads attacking Culp, with goal of knocking down his vote, to help ensure that Newhouse makes Top Two and possibly to knock Culp into third place and off the Fall ballot.
Personally IF yours truly had a vote in any of these races, I'd cast it for Meijer, Herrera Beutler or Newhouse. Because I'm a Democrat who puts country before party, and want to see ALL of the Republicans who had the courage to do the same at risk of their political positions and future careers.
Fact that the DCCC is trying to defeat Meijer in the primary in order to boost chances of Democrat winning in the general election, is to my way of thinking despicable.
Never have had much use for DCCC, and zero respect. They have now fallen below even THAT super-low standard.
At the least it is a) sometimes the case, though not as much as the whinging party pretends and b) gives a pretext for supporters to claim the issue is closed without admitting they/their darling messed up.
Her first major misstep, given she felt the need to break out this excuse, but she acted quickly to change reality.
https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1554250246527586308
Not.