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Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead – politicalbetting.com
Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead – politicalbetting.com
?NEW POLL?Poll of Conservative Cllrs ahead of the Conservative Leadership election.Liz Truss 31%Rishi Sunak 29%Undecided 32%511 Conservative Cllrs27-29 July pic.twitter.com/n1Cl4EDoCL
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Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):
11%
12%
11%
12%
10%
12%
13%
12%
9%
9%
If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?
From the Telegraph article:
"61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."
and:
"Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1553601379175989254
1.1 Liz Truss 91%
11 Rishi Sunak 9%
Next Conservative leader
1.1 Liz Truss 91%
11 Rishi Sunak 9%
England 2.6
Germany 3.1
Draw 3.3
Heja Europa! 🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🏴
1. The Tory number
2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number
If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.
If anyone out there thinks that Truss is going to crash n burn, you can get 29/1 for Under 40%.
What percentage are councillors of the overall party membership, though?
F1: interesting grid, got some betting ideas. We shall see what's up.
The Conservatives are a bitterly divided party, as their current leadership campaign shows only too well. And it is very hard for them to run a national campaign in the media, when they have to spread different messages in different places - anti Lib Dem as well as anti-Labour. I am sure their highly paid media-manipulators will do their best.
https://archive.ph/1jQrO
Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.
A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.
A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.
A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.
Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.
However, that problem is not unique to the Tories! Just ask the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are often crippled by the daft messaging emanating from their leadership south of the border.
Cameron really was an horrifically poor campaigner.
Not news.
Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.
There is a more recent Savanta ComRes (21 July) - Lab 44, Con 33 - but even that is 10 days old.
There are a whole host of more recent polls from other pollsters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?
Numbers have been going up somewhat slowly, but according to Oryx's figures, Russia has lost 910 tanks and 4,997 vehicles in total.
Real numbers are probably much higher, as many of the losses are now occurring deep behind Russian lines and photographic evidence is probably harder to come by.
Betting PostF1: backed Norris at 4.3 for a podium (hedged at 1.6) and Russell to win at 5.2 (hedged at 2, Smarkets prices).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/hungary-pre-race-2022.html
Labour are the final bastion of the Union. If they give up (and it looks to me that most members down south have indeed given up) then the Union is lost.
The first is an amendment to the Act of Settlement. There are some complications to this approach, notably that other Crown Realms, such as Australia, would also have to pass legislation to modify the succession.
The second is to force Charles to abdicate, which he might choose to do if threatened with the first and offered a payoff.
This is obvious from the opinion poll graph on Wikipedia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
If you assume that Sunak would have majority support in a forced choice of MPs, I think I'd expect councillors to be somewhere in between MPs and the wider membership. So level with councillors is consistent with Sunak being behind with members.
The undermining of the SLab bastions took decades of amazingly hard groundwork. I was there in the gritty trenches myself for many years in the 80s, 90s and early 00s. We on the ground could feel their support getting softer and softer: it was no longer pro-Labour but increasingly anti-Tory. It was just a matter of time before the whole stinking morass of corruption and filth collapsed under the weight of its own illogicality.
The key thing to understand about Scottish politics is that it is just that: the public affairs of the Scottish nation. You cannot win votes by being anti-Scottish.
I know exactly how Unionists could save the Union, and I am 100% confident that they will not choose the only path that will work. Why? Because it would mean being ferociously pro-Scottish, and that would go down like a lead balloon furth of the country.
Morris, for you the key year may seem to be 2015. It wasn’t. 1727, 1780, 1885, 1945, 1950, 1967, 1973, 1979, 1988, 1989, 1999 and 2007 were just as significant, often more so.
The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.
Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.
This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
I love that photo.
Very “brave”.
Some years ago, when I was still in a relationship with my daughter's mother, we visited her aunt. I think something happened with difficulty opening a jar, I forget the details, and my daughter's granny ended up in a physical altercation with my daughter's great-aunt. After it was done there was some fond reminiscing of a fight years previously that had led to a broken finger.
Europeans are family. The English are very fond of them, but this is expressed in a similar sibling fractiousness.
Not sure if it is simply a matter of not getting enough publicity and attention but none of the current lot are coming across as of that calibre to me, and I should be a natural, and in the current political climate, easy win for them.
I haven't read the Cass Report fully, but I suspect the GMC will.
After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1553638461801959426
The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.
If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
A serious degenerative disease before London Bridge is the only circumstance I see it happening. Even large bungs of cash in suitcases won't be enough.
https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672
Music festivals are struggling irrespective of this and a few have been cancelled.
They are not cheap to go to and there are quite a lot of them. High ticket prices are deterring people who don’t have the disposable income.
The cost of living crisis Will devastate the hospitality industry as disposable cash in peoples wallets falls considerably in October just in time for the Xmas party season which the industry relies on.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jun/04/uk-summer-music-festivals-forced-to-close-as-cost-of-living-crisis-hits-home
Corporation’s 50:50 equality project fails to ‘monitor whether a contributor’s gender differs from their sex registered at birth’
What is the alternative? Either you take guests' word for whether they sit down to pee or you make them give a blood sample for DNA testing.
Just because bands still turn up does not mean it is devastating. Lots won't and the UK may stop being the kick off or central location for European tours
"slightlyatsea (Deb) 💙NHS
@slightlyatsea
Anyone feel like the reason we're making some progress here on #TERFIsland is that the fight here *is* led by feminists, not the right?
1:40 PM · Jul 30, 2022"
https://mobile.twitter.com/slightlyatsea/status/1553359819528196096
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1553646395743158274?s=21&t=TUAcC5T28mZa3Wz6ZyZ02Q
Assuming the actual number is somewhere in the middle, that’s around 40% of the entire Russian army’s tanks, lost in only five months of war. We also know that most of what’s left are relics of the 1960s, that have been in what’s euphamisttically termed ‘storage’ for decades. It’s quite likely that, by the end of the summer, they’re going to be struggling to find any serviceable tanks to get to the front lines.
It now looks like the Russians in Kherson have lost all their supply routes apart from the river itself. They’re quickly going to have to either retreat without their equipment, or be starved out with nightly bombardments on their undefended positions.
You get to monitor that you have any trans guests at all for starters.
Surely the point is that such cultural transfers are now more difficult than at any time other outside war-time. There has never been a time when cultural or commercial exchanges with our European neighbours have been discouraged in the way they appear to be being discouraged now!