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Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I think that the best thing Boris has ever done is the way that he's enthused Ukrainians

    He's been Zelensky's most reliable and steadfast ally from the very start, and the Ukrainians love him for it

    His performances "training" the Ukrainian army (like in my pic) will be much mocked by his many opponents here. I expect that if they gave it some more thought, they'd realise the actual value of what he's doing. The morale boost for the troops that got to meet him, and for all those back in Ukraine seeing the footage of it, is a very good thing, whatever you think of Boris's motives

    I hope PM Liz makes him Minister for Ukraine or something similar

    Surely his ability to enthuse the Ukrainian forces should be directed where it will be most immediately effective - right on the front line, wherever the fighting is at its fiercest. Anyone truly committed to the Ukrainian cause wouldn't have it any other way.
    Are you prepared to take the risk of him becoming a new Napoleon and using his inspirational qualities to conquer Europe?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    edited July 2022
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    MISTY said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    A quarter of Tory members want Boris to be on the ballot according to a ConHome survey and 35% would still vote for him to be leader if he was

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1553700545990377472?s=20&t=cJkGEXYSAvu-S_Uikr6u6A

    He may still be popular with the members, but couldn’t command his own Cabinet, which is fatal for a PM.

    Johnson could have realised that the country faced huge and mounting problems and at least started to address them.

    He could have fired Sunak and appointed a tax cutting chancellor. He himself could have brought in Redwood to advise or anybody else he fancied. He could have reshuffled any number of cabinet members and appointed rising stars like Badenoch. He could have adopted some of the fresh ideas that have surfaced since his departure.

    He wasn't interested. He isn't interested. He was and is obsessed with himself and his own power, leadership and legacy. The party needed to at least start to address some of the enormous problems building up in Britain or lose. Johnson either couldn't or wouldn't do that. He thought himself above it all. That's why he was fired.
    Agreed. I was never his biggest fan, despite my many defences of his government on this forum. I mentioned it on the day he was elected. He was elected to do a specific job, which he did two years ago, and since then has been treading water while having to deal with a pandemic.
    He didn't bring in Redwood, that must count in his favour.
    I am interested to hear if you have anything against Redwood's competence as a Minister, his televised failure to sing the Welsh national anthem aside. I was too young to remember it much.
    Redwood presents as a cartoon classic nasty Tory, therefore he must be stupid and malign to a certain section of the politically active public. In reality he is almost certainly none of those things.
    Redwood is certainly not stupid. He has a DPhil and was a fellow of All Souls Oxford. However in the media and often in person, he is graceless and charmless. He is almost the anti Johnson. Even if you agree with him, you still, definitely would *not* want to go for a drink with him. He is personally cold and so fanatical and one eyed in his views, that he is a bore of the first water. He reminds me a great deal of Enoch Powell, another brilliant scholar who was really temprementally unsuited to be a successful politician.
    I have had this discussion before re Enoch Powell and will admit I have been going out on limb because his academic credentials are pretty impressive as is his promotion through the ranks but I would have loved to see how both got on studying Physics or Maths .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,162

    I think that the best thing Boris has ever done is the way that he's enthused Ukrainians

    He's been Zelensky's most reliable and steadfast ally from the very start, and the Ukrainians love him for it

    His performances "training" the Ukrainian army (like in my pic) will be much mocked by his many opponents here. I expect that if they gave it some more thought, they'd realise the actual value of what he's doing. The morale boost for the troops that got to meet him, and for all those back in Ukraine seeing the footage of it, is a very good thing, whatever you think of Boris's motives

    I hope PM Liz makes him Minister for Ukraine or something similar

    Surely his ability to enthuse the Ukrainian forces should be directed where it will be most immediately effective - right on the front line, wherever the fighting is at its fiercest. Anyone truly committed to the Ukrainian cause wouldn't have it any other way.
    Are you prepared to take the risk of him becoming a new Napoleon and using his inspirational qualities to conquer Europe?
    He'd need to take a far more conscientious interest in the details of his job. Look at Buonaparte's approach to logistics.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,806
    I hadn't seen this feature of DALLE-2 before. It's quite slick :

    https://twitter.com/fabianstelzer/status/1545752145273802752

    "DALL-E inpainting is VERY cool

    Let's you quickly create incredible little worlds like this "endlessly" zooming Hieronymus Bosch Futurama Cyberpunk universe"
  • I was checking out the Womad line-up after seeing the chat about it here earlier and noticed one of my favourite artists, Fantastic Negrito (born Xavier Amin Dphrepaulezz, so his new name is easier!)

    He did a really good NPR Tiny Desk concert where I first saw him. I love the way he dresses!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KhU75RkbYQ
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    MISTY said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    A quarter of Tory members want Boris to be on the ballot according to a ConHome survey and 35% would still vote for him to be leader if he was

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1553700545990377472?s=20&t=cJkGEXYSAvu-S_Uikr6u6A

    He may still be popular with the members, but couldn’t command his own Cabinet, which is fatal for a PM.

    Johnson could have realised that the country faced huge and mounting problems and at least started to address them.

    He could have fired Sunak and appointed a tax cutting chancellor. He himself could have brought in Redwood to advise or anybody else he fancied. He could have reshuffled any number of cabinet members and appointed rising stars like Badenoch. He could have adopted some of the fresh ideas that have surfaced since his departure.

    He wasn't interested. He isn't interested. He was and is obsessed with himself and his own power, leadership and legacy. The party needed to at least start to address some of the enormous problems building up in Britain or lose. Johnson either couldn't or wouldn't do that. He thought himself above it all. That's why he was fired.
    Agreed. I was never his biggest fan, despite my many defences of his government on this forum. I mentioned it on the day he was elected. He was elected to do a specific job, which he did two years ago, and since then has been treading water while having to deal with a pandemic.
    He didn't bring in Redwood, that must count in his favour.
    I am interested to hear if you have anything against Redwood's competence as a Minister, his televised failure to sing the Welsh national anthem aside. I was too young to remember it much.
    Redwood presents as a cartoon classic nasty Tory, therefore he must be stupid and malign to a certain section of the politically active public. In reality he is almost certainly none of those things.
    Redwood is certainly not stupid. He has a DPhil and was a fellow of All Souls Oxford. However in the media and often in person, he is graceless and charmless. He is almost the anti Johnson. Even if you agree with him, you still, definitely would *not* want to go for a drink with him. He is personally cold and so fanatical and one eyed in his views, that he is a bore of the first water. He reminds me a great deal of Enoch Powell, another brilliant scholar who was really temprementally unsuited to be a successful politician.
    Redwood is the most cold and charmless politician I have ever met.
    He is not up for the role of PM, therefore I fail to see why the alleged absence of warmth or charm would be a disqualifying factor. These things perhaps explain why his colleagues haven't promoted him, not why we as members of the public should fear his promotion.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    kinabalu said:

    I think that the best thing Boris has ever done is the way that he's enthused Ukrainians

    He's been Zelensky's most reliable and steadfast ally from the very start, and the Ukrainians love him for it

    His performances "training" the Ukrainian army (like in my pic) will be much mocked by his many opponents here. I expect that if they gave it some more thought, they'd realise the actual value of what he's doing. The morale boost for the troops that got to meet him, and for all those back in Ukraine seeing the footage of it, is a very good thing, whatever you think of Boris's motives

    I hope PM Liz makes him Minister for Ukraine or something similar

    Ambassador TO Ukraine would be even better.
    His personality suits him for what his has done in Ukraine. Enthusiastic, motivational speeches (even if they are gibberish). I thought, and said so here at the time, that I thought he was well suited to fronting the pandemic broadcasts with the experts either side of him and if he had kept to chairing those with powerful introductions and winding ups with a mix of motivation and the new stuff that was being implemented, but leaving the detail to the experts that was ideal for him and he didn't do too bad at those bits.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    What's the difference between a good Ferrari strategy and a sane Tory policy?

    We may actually one day see a sane Tory policy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Think the Tory leadership contest is already sewn up by Liz Truss? It’s not. She may be winning the “air war” but Rishi Sunak can still get to No10 via the “ground war” - by me @theipaper https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-rishi-sunak-can-still-beat-liz-truss-by-winning-ground-war-in-whistlestop-tour-of-200-seats-1771367
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    kjh said:

    I thought, and said so here at the time, that I thought he was well suited to fronting the pandemic broadcasts with the experts either side of him

    The problem with that analysis is that he is a liar.

    He was telling lies at the podium, and they eventually caught up with him.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    I thought, and said so here at the time, that I thought he was well suited to fronting the pandemic broadcasts with the experts either side of him

    The problem with that analysis is that he is a liar.

    He was telling lies at the podium, and they eventually caught up with him.
    Yep. Just one of a long list of faults that made him unsuitable for being PM (and come to that a whole list of other jobs e.g. Foreign Secretary). Doesn't make it not true though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2022

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    Good idea. A surefire vote magnet. Also focus on a more equal distribution of wealth. This will improve the living standards of most people (esp those in real need) and is a more realistic ambition for our politics than the fairytale notion of all problems solved and everything paid for by "growing the economy". What that phrase means, from either politician or pundit, is "Let's play pretend".
    I don't think growth in the economy is impossible. If the left simply falls back on income/wealth distribution rather than a clear economic policy they are making a big mistake in my view. The model should be wealthy northern European countries, none of whom so far as I can tell have given up on growth.
    The economy needs to - and will - grow. What I'm talking about is the tendency of politicians to pretend they can implement policies which will make a big difference in short order to how much it grows.

    They can't and they know it. They make such promises because it sounds good and avoids saying unappealing truths which equally cynical opponents will exploit. In truth all they can do on the size of the economy - without the fictitious magic money tree - is impact it on the margins and over the long term, plus avoid doing actively damaging things like Brexit.

    Where they really can have an impact is on the distribution of wealth. They can Level Up the many and Level Down the few, or they can do the opposite. So I'd like to hear more on this from both parties - solid practical proposals from Labour to reduce inequality and from the Tories to increase it - and less undeliverable anodyne win/win indistinguishable bullshit about "growing the economy".

    But I suppose that's too much to ask and I'll just have to whistle.
    I agree that radical changes in economic performance are pretty much impossible. Because they run up against existing interests.

    But you can do some interesting things - what about 110% tax relief on investment in machinery and high quality training?
    Under Sunaks current capital allowances system it is 125%.

    So they are being paid by the government to invest?
    Yes, it is called a super deduction. My mistake, it is 130%:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/super-deduction

    It was part of Sunak's Company tax reforms, so any company can dodge tax by investing in equipment, staff and research.
    This strikes me as mistaken. Companies should be investing out of self interest. They shouldn't need extravagant incentives. Surely it's a sign that the system is broken?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    8 is available for 2023 being year of Starmer's exit.

    I have taken a nibble.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    "I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears."

    You explain why it's probably bullshit, then declare it can't be. ?!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
    That made me laugh. Although I have to admit I never found Jimmy Saville reassuring even before we found out about him and also being dead makes it a bit tricky so I think Boris does just have the edge over JS (only just though, only joking)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    Good idea. A surefire vote magnet. Also focus on a more equal distribution of wealth. This will improve the living standards of most people (esp those in real need) and is a more realistic ambition for our politics than the fairytale notion of all problems solved and everything paid for by "growing the economy". What that phrase means, from either politician or pundit, is "Let's play pretend".
    I don't think growth in the economy is impossible. If the left simply falls back on income/wealth distribution rather than a clear economic policy they are making a big mistake in my view. The model should be wealthy northern European countries, none of whom so far as I can tell have given up on growth.
    The economy needs to - and will - grow. What I'm talking about is the tendency of politicians to pretend they can implement policies which will make a big difference in short order to how much it grows.

    They can't and they know it. They make such promises because it sounds good and avoids saying unappealing truths which equally cynical opponents will exploit. In truth all they can do on the size of the economy - without the fictitious magic money tree - is impact it on the margins and over the long term, plus avoid doing actively damaging things like Brexit.

    Where they really can have an impact is on the distribution of wealth. They can Level Up the many and Level Down the few, or they can do the opposite. So I'd like to hear more on this from both parties - solid practical proposals from Labour to reduce inequality and from the Tories to increase it - and less undeliverable anodyne win/win indistinguishable bullshit about "growing the economy".

    But I suppose that's too much to ask and I'll just have to whistle.
    I agree that radical changes in economic performance are pretty much impossible. Because they run up against existing interests.

    But you can do some interesting things - what about 110% tax relief on investment in machinery and high quality training?
    Under Sunaks current capital allowances system it is 125%.

    So they are being paid by the government to invest?
    Yes, it is called a super deduction. My mistake, it is 130%:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/super-deduction

    It was part of Sunak's Company tax reforms, so any company can dodge tax by investing in equipment, staff and research.
    This strikes me as mistaken. Companies should be investing out of self interest. They shouldn't need extravagant incentives. Surely it's a sign that the system is broken?
    You may well be right. At least Sunak is trying to fix one aspect of this broken system.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think that the best thing Boris has ever done is the way that he's enthused Ukrainians

    He's been Zelensky's most reliable and steadfast ally from the very start, and the Ukrainians love him for it

    His performances "training" the Ukrainian army (like in my pic) will be much mocked by his many opponents here. I expect that if they gave it some more thought, they'd realise the actual value of what he's doing. The morale boost for the troops that got to meet him, and for all those back in Ukraine seeing the footage of it, is a very good thing, whatever you think of Boris's motives

    I hope PM Liz makes him Minister for Ukraine or something similar

    Ambassador TO Ukraine would be even better.
    His personality suits him for what his has done in Ukraine. Enthusiastic, motivational speeches (even if they are gibberish). I thought, and said so here at the time, that I thought he was well suited to fronting the pandemic broadcasts with the experts either side of him and if he had kept to chairing those with powerful introductions and winding ups with a mix of motivation and the new stuff that was being implemented, but leaving the detail to the experts that was ideal for him and he didn't do too bad at those bits.
    Yes, cannot abide but he's had his moments. My top one is the vid he did when he left hozzy after Covid. That was almost the only time I saw grace and sincerity from him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    Good idea. A surefire vote magnet. Also focus on a more equal distribution of wealth. This will improve the living standards of most people (esp those in real need) and is a more realistic ambition for our politics than the fairytale notion of all problems solved and everything paid for by "growing the economy". What that phrase means, from either politician or pundit, is "Let's play pretend".
    I don't think growth in the economy is impossible. If the left simply falls back on income/wealth distribution rather than a clear economic policy they are making a big mistake in my view. The model should be wealthy northern European countries, none of whom so far as I can tell have given up on growth.
    The economy needs to - and will - grow. What I'm talking about is the tendency of politicians to pretend they can implement policies which will make a big difference in short order to how much it grows.

    They can't and they know it. They make such promises because it sounds good and avoids saying unappealing truths which equally cynical opponents will exploit. In truth all they can do on the size of the economy - without the fictitious magic money tree - is impact it on the margins and over the long term, plus avoid doing actively damaging things like Brexit.

    Where they really can have an impact is on the distribution of wealth. They can Level Up the many and Level Down the few, or they can do the opposite. So I'd like to hear more on this from both parties - solid practical proposals from Labour to reduce inequality and from the Tories to increase it - and less undeliverable anodyne win/win indistinguishable bullshit about "growing the economy".

    But I suppose that's too much to ask and I'll just have to whistle.
    I agree that radical changes in economic performance are pretty much impossible. Because they run up against existing interests.

    But you can do some interesting things - what about 110% tax relief on investment in machinery and high quality training?
    Under Sunaks current capital allowances system it is 125%.

    So they are being paid by the government to invest?
    Yes, it is called a super deduction. My mistake, it is 130%:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/super-deduction

    It was part of Sunak's Company tax reforms, so any company can dodge tax by investing in equipment, staff and research.
    This strikes me as mistaken. Companies should be investing out of self interest. They shouldn't need extravagant incentives. Surely it's a sign that the system is broken?
    You may well be right. At least Sunak is trying to fix one aspect of this broken system.
    The system is broken in that it encourages short term band aids, profit taking and sell the company and run.

    Another way to look at it - why do we want to tax investment and training? Too many shiny new factories? Too many over skilled people,?
  • I was checking out the Womad line-up after seeing the chat about it here earlier and noticed one of my favourite artists, Fantastic Negrito (born Xavier Amin Dphrepaulezz, so his new name is easier!)

    He did a really good NPR Tiny Desk concert where I first saw him. I love the way he dresses!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KhU75RkbYQ

    I often find a gem when I listen to a random Tiny Desk concert

    I just discovered Superorganism, a wonderfully eccentric American pop band and their 2018 NPR Tiny Desk show

    This is the description on Youtube from the NPR guy that got them there

    "Bob Boilen -- I went from really loving the music of Superorganism to being a transformed super-fan the moment they sent me an email ahead of their Tiny Desk performance asking, "is it okay if we [bring] inflatable whales when we play?" Now I feel like the kind of fan I was when I wore a yellow radiation suit to a Devo concert in 1978.

    The multinational band of theatrically fun and talented musicians in Superorganism mix melody and mischievous with almost Seussian folly. In addition to the 20-plus inflatable whales they provided, the band requested via email that we provide "7 x Crunchy apples, 7 x cans of Coca Cola (or similar, as long as they are 330mls/12oz cans it doesn't matter)." They added, "PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT A RIDER BUT PART OF THE PERFORMANCE."

    When the seven members of the band arrived and huddled behind my desk, they blew into straws, making percussive noises, used toy cars and radios for sound effects and added lots of handclaps. And in the midst of it all was Orono Noguchi, a small-framed, self-described "average 17-year old Japanese girl living in Maine." (That's from an email she wrote me last year). The band set up a couple of belt pack guitar amps for their Moog and electric guitar, along with a big Anvil road case to beat on for percussion – and then they sang about prawns."

    I hope someone enjoys it as much as I have!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K49QKVR0p0
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I was checking out the Womad line-up after seeing the chat about it here earlier and noticed one of my favourite artists, Fantastic Negrito (born Xavier Amin Dphrepaulezz, so his new name is easier!)

    He did a really good NPR Tiny Desk concert where I first saw him. I love the way he dresses!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KhU75RkbYQ

    I often find a gem when I listen to a random Tiny Desk concert

    I just discovered Superorganism, a wonderfully eccentric American pop band and their 2018 NPR Tiny Desk show

    This is the description on Youtube from the NPR guy that got them there

    "Bob Boilen -- I went from really loving the music of Superorganism to being a transformed super-fan the moment they sent me an email ahead of their Tiny Desk performance asking, "is it okay if we [bring] inflatable whales when we play?" Now I feel like the kind of fan I was when I wore a yellow radiation suit to a Devo concert in 1978.

    The multinational band of theatrically fun and talented musicians in Superorganism mix melody and mischievous with almost Seussian folly. In addition to the 20-plus inflatable whales they provided, the band requested via email that we provide "7 x Crunchy apples, 7 x cans of Coca Cola (or similar, as long as they are 330mls/12oz cans it doesn't matter)." They added, "PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT A RIDER BUT PART OF THE PERFORMANCE."

    When the seven members of the band arrived and huddled behind my desk, they blew into straws, making percussive noises, used toy cars and radios for sound effects and added lots of handclaps. And in the midst of it all was Orono Noguchi, a small-framed, self-described "average 17-year old Japanese girl living in Maine." (That's from an email she wrote me last year). The band set up a couple of belt pack guitar amps for their Moog and electric guitar, along with a big Anvil road case to beat on for percussion – and then they sang about prawns."

    I hope someone enjoys it as much as I have!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K49QKVR0p0
    Bands looks so young these days.

    That opening song (“I’m happy just being a prawn”) is a bit silly, but it reminds me of the Elephant Six Collective stuff, which is a good thing indeed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    Indeed yes.

    You can't alarm a Starmer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shame the rain didn't come a few laps earlier.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    ydoethur said:

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    Indeed yes.

    You can't alarm a Starmer.
    What if you arm a llama?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    On Topic 15-17 Jul fieldwork in the Poll quoted

    Highest lead since Picket Sacking much lower
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    Good idea. A surefire vote magnet. Also focus on a more equal distribution of wealth. This will improve the living standards of most people (esp those in real need) and is a more realistic ambition for our politics than the fairytale notion of all problems solved and everything paid for by "growing the economy". What that phrase means, from either politician or pundit, is "Let's play pretend".
    I don't think growth in the economy is impossible. If the left simply falls back on income/wealth distribution rather than a clear economic policy they are making a big mistake in my view. The model should be wealthy northern European countries, none of whom so far as I can tell have given up on growth.
    The economy needs to - and will - grow. What I'm talking about is the tendency of politicians to pretend they can implement policies which will make a big difference in short order to how much it grows.

    They can't and they know it. They make such promises because it sounds good and avoids saying unappealing truths which equally cynical opponents will exploit. In truth all they can do on the size of the economy - without the fictitious magic money tree - is impact it on the margins and over the long term, plus avoid doing actively damaging things like Brexit.

    Where they really can have an impact is on the distribution of wealth. They can Level Up the many and Level Down the few, or they can do the opposite. So I'd like to hear more on this from both parties - solid practical proposals from Labour to reduce inequality and from the Tories to increase it - and less undeliverable anodyne win/win indistinguishable bullshit about "growing the economy".

    But I suppose that's too much to ask and I'll just have to whistle.
    I agree that radical changes in economic performance are pretty much impossible. Because they run up against existing interests.

    But you can do some interesting things - what about 110% tax relief on investment in machinery and high quality training?
    Under Sunaks current capital allowances system it is 125%.

    So they are being paid by the government to invest?
    Yes, it is called a super deduction. My mistake, it is 130%:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/super-deduction

    It was part of Sunak's Company tax reforms, so any company can dodge tax by investing in equipment, staff and research.
    This strikes me as mistaken. Companies should be investing out of self interest. They shouldn't need extravagant incentives. Surely it's a sign that the system is broken?
    You may well be right. At least Sunak is trying to fix one aspect of this broken system.
    So far as I know the government is actually boosting public investment. It would be nice to know where it is going.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    Indeed yes.

    You can't alarm a Starmer.
    What if you arm a llama?
    I don't know. Surely nobody would be that keir less?
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited July 2022

    I was checking out the Womad line-up after seeing the chat about it here earlier and noticed one of my favourite artists, Fantastic Negrito (born Xavier Amin Dphrepaulezz, so his new name is easier!)

    He did a really good NPR Tiny Desk concert where I first saw him. I love the way he dresses!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KhU75RkbYQ

    I often find a gem when I listen to a random Tiny Desk concert

    I just discovered Superorganism, a wonderfully eccentric American pop band and their 2018 NPR Tiny Desk show

    This is the description on Youtube from the NPR guy that got them there

    "Bob Boilen -- I went from really loving the music of Superorganism to being a transformed super-fan the moment they sent me an email ahead of their Tiny Desk performance asking, "is it okay if we [bring] inflatable whales when we play?" Now I feel like the kind of fan I was when I wore a yellow radiation suit to a Devo concert in 1978.

    The multinational band of theatrically fun and talented musicians in Superorganism mix melody and mischievous with almost Seussian folly. In addition to the 20-plus inflatable whales they provided, the band requested via email that we provide "7 x Crunchy apples, 7 x cans of Coca Cola (or similar, as long as they are 330mls/12oz cans it doesn't matter)." They added, "PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT A RIDER BUT PART OF THE PERFORMANCE."

    When the seven members of the band arrived and huddled behind my desk, they blew into straws, making percussive noises, used toy cars and radios for sound effects and added lots of handclaps. And in the midst of it all was Orono Noguchi, a small-framed, self-described "average 17-year old Japanese girl living in Maine." (That's from an email she wrote me last year). The band set up a couple of belt pack guitar amps for their Moog and electric guitar, along with a big Anvil road case to beat on for percussion – and then they sang about prawns."

    I hope someone enjoys it as much as I have!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K49QKVR0p0
    Thanks. I’ll watch it when I get some time later. There are some really awesome tiny desk concerts on YouTube. A particular favourite is death cab for cutie;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mi6uRT7PxTQ

    Also, cranberries;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxsJvKYyVyg

    I’m half deaf and wear a Bluetooth hearing aid. Unfortunately as a consequence, I tend to find gigs tedious. The live audio is usually terrible and my hearing aid doesn’t help much. Having high quality recorded performances uploaded to YouTube is incredible for me.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    On Topic 15-17 Jul fieldwork in the Poll quoted

    Highest lead since Picket Sacking much lower

    Straight back to Corbyn Winning Here figures if the party had just gone to demos all day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shame the rain didn't come a few laps earlier.

    Leclerc:

    'Screw the rain. Shame that my team are so f***ing stupid.'
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    ydoethur said:

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    Indeed yes.

    You can't alarm a Starmer.
    What if you arm a llama?
    Things are calmer with Starmer. I do wonder if his position is a bit dicey though, he made need to give the grassroots a bit of organic red meat/vegetables.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    England are surely well out of this match. SA with an enormous score.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: less detail than usual, bit off-colour:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html

    Mr. Doethur, aye. It's a bizarre level of incompetence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shame the rain didn't come a few laps earlier.

    Leclerc:

    'Screw the rain. Shame that my team are so f***ing stupid.'
    The hard tyre thing was utterly incomprehensible and cost him a podium at the very least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    F1: less detail than usual, bit off-colour:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html

    Mr. Doethur, aye. It's a bizarre level of incompetence.

    There is an old Irish saying, 'to every judge his error.' Which is, anyone can make a mistake.

    What's impressive about Ferrari at the moment is not the fact they sometimes make mistakes, but the sheer quality, quantity and variety of them.

    It's as though they start each race with the question, 'right, how can we make it as difficult as possible to achieve a good result?'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    Indeed yes.

    You can't alarm a Starmer.
    What if you arm a llama?
    I don't know. Surely nobody would be that keir less?
    Indeed. Most incautious to let an animal pac a rod.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shame the rain didn't come a few laps earlier.

    Leclerc:

    'Screw the rain. Shame that my team are so f***ing stupid.'
    The hard tyre thing was utterly incomprehensible and cost him a podium at the very least.
    It was an opportunity not so much lightly tossed away as hurled with great force.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,705
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
    That made me laugh. Although I have to admit I never found Jimmy Saville reassuring even before we found out about him and also being dead makes it a bit tricky so I think Boris does just have the edge over JS (only just though, only joking)
    "Savile", please. Think "vile". it's a mnemonic that writes itself.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. L, Leclerc should've been top 2 (to be fair, Verstappen was lucky he didn't screw his tyres with that weird spin). Ferrari strategists have cost him a fortune in points this season.

    Mr. Doethur, indeed. A slow stop and traffic can happen to anyone. Ferrari create fascinating new challenges for their drivers to overcome.

    Verstappen and Red Bull, meanwhile, mostly just do the basics right. When they're faster they win on pace, and when they're not then most of the time the Ferrari strategy team save their bacon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
    That made me laugh. Although I have to admit I never found Jimmy Saville reassuring even before we found out about him and also being dead makes it a bit tricky so I think Boris does just have the edge over JS (only just though, only joking)
    "Savile", please. Think "vile". it's a mnemonic that writes itself.
    I have a cousin who has the misfortune to be called James Saville.

    He spends a lot of time explaining it's got two 'l's in it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
    That made me laugh. Although I have to admit I never found Jimmy Saville reassuring even before we found out about him and also being dead makes it a bit tricky so I think Boris does just have the edge over JS (only just though, only joking)
    "Savile", please. Think "vile". it's a mnemonic that writes itself.
    I have a cousin who has the misfortune to be called James Saville.

    He spends a lot of time explaining it's got two 'l's in it.
    Reminds of the ex Secretary Gen of NATO. General Sir Mike Jackson.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    Good idea. A surefire vote magnet. Also focus on a more equal distribution of wealth. This will improve the living standards of most people (esp those in real need) and is a more realistic ambition for our politics than the fairytale notion of all problems solved and everything paid for by "growing the economy". What that phrase means, from either politician or pundit, is "Let's play pretend".
    I don't think growth in the economy is impossible. If the left simply falls back on income/wealth distribution rather than a clear economic policy they are making a big mistake in my view. The model should be wealthy northern European countries, none of whom so far as I can tell have given up on growth.
    The economy needs to - and will - grow. What I'm talking about is the tendency of politicians to pretend they can implement policies which will make a big difference in short order to how much it grows.

    They can't and they know it. They make such promises because it sounds good and avoids saying unappealing truths which equally cynical opponents will exploit. In truth all they can do on the size of the economy - without the fictitious magic money tree - is impact it on the margins and over the long term, plus avoid doing actively damaging things like Brexit.

    Where they really can have an impact is on the distribution of wealth. They can Level Up the many and Level Down the few, or they can do the opposite. So I'd like to hear more on this from both parties - solid practical proposals from Labour to reduce inequality and from the Tories to increase it - and less undeliverable anodyne win/win indistinguishable bullshit about "growing the economy".

    But I suppose that's too much to ask and I'll just have to whistle.
    I agree that radical changes in economic performance are pretty much impossible. Because they run up against existing interests.

    But you can do some interesting things - what about 110% tax relief on investment in machinery and high quality training?
    Under Sunaks current capital allowances system it is 125%.

    So they are being paid by the government to invest?
    Yes, it is called a super deduction. My mistake, it is 130%:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/super-deduction

    It was part of Sunak's Company tax reforms, so any company can dodge tax by investing in equipment, staff and research.
    This strikes me as mistaken. Companies should be investing out of self interest. They shouldn't need extravagant incentives. Surely it's a sign that the system is broken?
    You may well be right. At least Sunak is trying to fix one aspect of this broken system.
    The system is broken in that it encourages short term band aids, profit taking and sell the company and run.

    Another way to look at it - why do we want to tax investment and training? Too many shiny new factories? Too many over skilled people,?
    We didn't tax investment and training: if you spend $100 on training your employees, then your pre-tax profits were $100 lower, and therefore you paid tax only on a lower level of profits.

    What has changed is that now you get a super-deduction: so, instead of your profits (from the tax man's perspective) being reduced by $100, it's now reduced by $130. It is - very simply - a tax break on training.

    But it's also a pretty modest one.

    Effectively, it means you get get a tax credit of $25 rather than $19 on that $100 of training. It's - effectively - a 6% reduction in the cost training.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Scott_xP said:

    Think the Tory leadership contest is already sewn up by Liz Truss? It’s not. She may be winning the “air war” but Rishi Sunak can still get to No10 via the “ground war” - by me @theipaper https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-rishi-sunak-can-still-beat-liz-truss-by-winning-ground-war-in-whistlestop-tour-of-200-seats-1771367

    I wish Jane Merrick was offering odds.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    EPG said:

    On Topic 15-17 Jul fieldwork in the Poll quoted

    Highest lead since Picket Sacking much lower

    Straight back to Corbyn Winning Here figures if the party had just gone to demos all day.
    Rent free
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    Doesn't make it not true though.

    If the argument is that they should have been fronted by a reassuring public figure with no involvement in delivery, then Jimmy Saville would have been just as good
    That made me laugh. Although I have to admit I never found Jimmy Saville reassuring even before we found out about him and also being dead makes it a bit tricky so I think Boris does just have the edge over JS (only just though, only joking)
    "Savile", please. Think "vile". it's a mnemonic that writes itself.
    I have a cousin who has the misfortune to be called James Saville.

    He spends a lot of time explaining it's got two 'l's in it.
    I hope it doesn't lead to arguments. There's only room for one Saville row.
    That joke was just tailor made.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    So who's betting on the final? Germany the value bet for me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    So who's betting on the final? Germany the value bet for me.

    I have £5 on Germany to win overall.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So who's betting on the final? Germany the value bet for me.

    Me Germany at 3.2 ish
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    I am predicting SA by 40 runs, minimum.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Indeed. The reason we’re in this pickle is because the West turned the other cheek after Russia used first radiation weapons and then chemical weapons on British soil. UK politicians continued to cosy up to Putin’s proxies and take their cash, American politicians had press junkets with plastic “reset buttons” and European politicians continued degrading their energy independence and increasing their dependence on Russia.

    It was all very puzzling at the time and with the passage of events looks frankly downright suspicious in the case of a few European and British politicians that I shan’t mention by name. The cheek of these types accusing Trump of being a Trump stooge is mind blowing given their own behaviour.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    but Popp out apparently
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Indeed. The reason we’re in this pickle is because the West turned the other cheek after Russia used first radiation weapons and then chemical weapons on British soil. UK politicians continued to cosy up to Putin’s proxies and take their cash, American politicians had press junkets with plastic “reset buttons” and European politicians continued degrading their energy independence and increasing their dependence on Russia.

    It was all very puzzling at the time and with the passage of events looks frankly downright suspicious in the case of a few European and British politicians that I shan’t mention by name. The cheek of these types accusing Trump of being a Trump stooge is mind blowing given their own behaviour.
    I'm bemused by those (generally on the left) who screech about Nato's eastwards expansion 'causing' the Russian invasion, whilst ignoring Ed Miliband's wizard wheeze over Syria - where he refused to stand up to the use of chemical weapons, and told Russia the west was too split to respond to evil. The next year they grabbed Crimea and started their war in eastern Ukraine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    DavidL said:

    I am predicting SA by 40 runs, minimum.

    I hope that works better than your efforts with Gloucestershire!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    The greatest energy arbitrage of all times: US Gulf coast ➡️ NW Europe. 200mUSD gain or more per trip… which is basically the price of the ship. Insane!

    https://twitter.com/MegaWattXinfo/status/1553358059895914497/photo/1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Has Popp’s hamstring gone pop? Big loss for the Germans.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    IshmaelZ said:

    So who's betting on the final? Germany the value bet for me.

    Me Germany at 3.2 ish
    Lionesses for me. Opposing the patriotic money is past its sell-by date imo.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act
    of war.
    On the contrary. The use of novichok, a WMD, on British soil was an utterly reckless act. We were very lucky indeed to have ended up with only one fatality and no long term exclusion zone in a historic city.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    On the contrary. The use of novichok, a WMD, on British soil was an utterly reckless act. We were very lucky indeed to have

    ended up with only one fatality and no long term exclusion zone in a historic city.
    It angers me that we went to the 2018 World Cup.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    So who's betting on the final? Germany the value bet for me.

    Me Germany at 3.2 ish
    Lionesses for me. Opposing the patriotic money is past its sell-by date imo.
    Popp news not great
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    ping said:

    The greatest energy arbitrage of all times: US Gulf coast ➡️ NW Europe. 200mUSD gain or more per trip… which is basically the price of the ship. Insane!

    https://twitter.com/MegaWattXinfo/status/1553358059895914497/photo/1

    It's easy (well, relatively) to solve the world's energy problems: we just need lots of new LNG vessels.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    The greatest energy arbitrage of all times: US Gulf coast ➡️ NW Europe. 200mUSD gain or more per trip… which is basically the price of the ship. Insane!

    https://twitter.com/MegaWattXinfo/status/1553358059895914497/photo/1

    It's easy (well, relatively) to solve the world's energy problems: we just need lots of new LNG vessels.
    Is it technically unfeasible to build a pipeline from the US>NW Europe?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    Yes.

    But if they have blown up an armaments factory, that's even worse because it's an act of war. Which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    Yes.

    But if they have blown up an armaments factory, that's even worse because it's an act of war. Which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.
    Do you not regard Salisbury as an act of war? I’ve heard a theory that scribal was an incidental target - the point was to do this by Porton Down, to show that they could.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Interesting to wonder how our government would react to another Salisbury style poisoning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Switched to the football. German defence looks very good and quite robust. Going to be less room for the Lionesses than they have been used to.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    These Germans are just as dirty as a mens team.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Beth Mead favourite for SPOTY. Not sure she’d win it even if they win today.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    Are we seeing the first straws in the wind of a Labour leadership challenge next summer?

    How so?
    The way Sir K has handled the railworkers strike and other strikes seems to have so pissed off the unions that they are starting to brief against him and say they may pull funding.

    Meanwhile, Hodges reports that there are discussions in the party as to whether if the Tories can ditch Johnson why can't they ditch Starmer. I know it's the Mail but someone must be whispering in ears.
    Sounds like bollocks.
    Keir is safe; Labour are roughly ten points ahead still.

    Keir’s approach to strikes has not been perfect, but his room for manoeuvre is limited given the Tory press’s hostility to unions.

    Compare with the easy ride some ministers gets for seemingly considering a ban on the right to strike completely.
    The Daily Mail and Team Owen Jones pincer strategy to undo Starmer will get them another five years of Truss
    Governments they both desire.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    Scott_xP said:

    Think the Tory leadership contest is already sewn up by Liz Truss? It’s not. She may be winning the “air war” but Rishi Sunak can still get to No10 via the “ground war” - by me @theipaper https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-rishi-sunak-can-still-beat-liz-truss-by-winning-ground-war-in-whistlestop-tour-of-200-seats-1771367

    Anecdata here. I was kindly invited to look in on my landlady's annual family gathering, and chatted to two party members who'd been at a Sunak event the day before, one of 6 he was doing that day. They had been leaning Truss but have now opted for him, partly as he seemed to have more of a coherent plan, and partly because he was making such an impressive effort. They still like Truss on policy grounds (and because the lady still likes Boris and sees her as the continuity choice) but are wary of her showering them with unfunded promises.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,162

    Scott_xP said:

    Think the Tory leadership contest is already sewn up by Liz Truss? It’s not. She may be winning the “air war” but Rishi Sunak can still get to No10 via the “ground war” - by me @theipaper https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-rishi-sunak-can-still-beat-liz-truss-by-winning-ground-war-in-whistlestop-tour-of-200-seats-1771367

    Anecdata here. I was kindly invited to look in on my landlady's annual family gathering, and chatted to two party members who'd been at a Sunak event the day before, one of 6 he was doing that day. They had been leaning Truss but have now opted for him, partly as he seemed to have more of a coherent plan, and partly because he was making such an impressive effort. They still like Truss on policy grounds (and because the lady still likes Boris and sees her as the continuity choice) but are wary of her showering them with unfunded promises.
    Would be appropriate if he won 52-48, no?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    This has penalties written all over it. And we know how how that ends.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting to wonder how our government would react to another Salisbury style poisoning.

    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    The Litvinenko case was bad as well: afaicr they could follow the 'trace' of radiation along the route the killers had taken. Other non-targeted people could easily have been killed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    tlg86 said:

    This has penalties written all over it. And we know how how that ends.

    This referee will give Germany a penalty soon enough I fear.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting to wonder how our government would react to another Salisbury style poisoning.

    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.
    Who were the many? And "hesitant" doesn't begin to explain Corbyn's Soviet- loving treason.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    Yes.

    But if they have blown up an armaments factory, that's even worse because it's an act of war. Which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.
    Do you not regard Salisbury as an act of war? I’ve heard a theory that scribal was an incidental target - the point was to do this by Porton Down, to show that they could.
    No. It was an act of state sponsored murder. Crude, pointless, utterly reckless and bungled from start to finish, but most states take part in such things.* Israel and the US both spring to mind.

    Blowing up an armaments factory, designed to degrade an enemy's fighting power, on their territory - that's somewhat different.

    Whether NATO will take it differently is of course another question. They've gone to extraordinary lengths and ignored vast provocations to stay out of direct conflict with Russia. There have been similar acts of sabotage in Czechia that have gone unresponded to, for example.

    But each one brings us closer to the moment NATO puts troops into Ukraine. Which would be a very alarming development.

    *Incidentally, has it struck anyone else just how incompetent the Russians are at this sort of thing? They do it all the time and very frequently fail spectacularly. Yuschenko, Skripal, this Bulgarian arms merchant...they did of course succeed with Litvinenko but not it seems in quite the way they intended.

    It's a Good Thing in one way that they're so useless - I hate to think what could happen if they were as well-organised as Mossad - but coupled to their pretty abject performance in Ukraine it does make you wonder exactly how disorganised the country must be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    The Litvinenko case was bad as well: afaicr they could follow the 'trace' of radiation along the route the killers had taken. Other non-targeted people could easily have been killed.
    That was on Labour's watch. Did they do anything about it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with
    a breathtaking lack of care about the
    consequences. They shoved an entire bottle
    of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire
    bottle that could have killed thousands.

    The Litvinenko case was bad as well: afaicr they could follow the 'trace' of radiation along the route the killers had taken. Other non-targeted people could easily have been killed.
    The investigation went via The Emirates as he’d been at an Arsenal game.

    I agree with your assessment of our reaction to Salisbury. But I wish we’d boycotted the World Cup. I jest about two of the last 11 World Cup hosts invading their neighbours four years later, but events like the World Cup can be used to improve the standing of dictators.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549
    These videos of Russians committing serious war crimes against Ukrainian POWs are interesting. (Note I do not add 'allegedly' to this.) What do the Russians hope to gain from such treatment and the release of the videos?

    If they are hoping that it will break the will of the Ukrainian people, I fear it will have exactly the opposite effect. Ukrainians will want to fight the evil, and their fighters will be less likely to surrender. It will make countries slightly less likely to support Russia. It will strengthen the support of Ukraine amongst civilised nations.

    My takeaway from this (and the Russian Embassy in the UK's tweet yesterday) is that Russia don't care. Godwinning myself, they are like Nazi Germany. They believe they have right on their side, and if they are right, they can do anything.

    Which is why they need to lose - however you define 'lose'...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine.

    According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.

    Bulgarian prosecutors have charged three Russian citizens with poisoning Gebrev. He was poisoned by agents of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to Bellingcat. The Czech Republic has also accused Russia of blowing up Czech warehouses owned by Gebrev in 2014.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553763351058161664

    So - if this is true and if Russia was behind it - Russia has now attacked a NATO member?
    Bit like Salisbury then?
    Blowing up a factory is a bit more serious than a bungled poisoning.

    Which is not to say the poisoning wasn't serious.

    One is an act of stupidity and the other is an act of war.
    People I know at Porton Down suggest we were incredibly lucky more people weren’t killed in Salisbury. I get what you are saying, but ffs this was a nerve agent attack with a breathtaking lack of care about the consequences. They shoved an entire bottle of nerve agent in a charity bin. And entire bottle that could have killed thousands.
    The Litvinenko case was bad as well: afaicr they could follow the 'trace' of radiation along the route the killers had taken. Other non-targeted people could easily have been killed.
    That was on Labour's watch. Did they do anything about it?
    To their credit, yes. They gathered the evidence, even if it pointed in troublesome directions, and produced enough for the ECHR (remember them?) to rule Russia responsible.

    It is alleged other countries preferred to cover-up such assassinations by Russia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    These videos of Russians committing serious war crimes against Ukrainian POWs are interesting. (Note I do not add 'allegedly' to this.) What do the Russians hope to gain from such treatment and the release of the videos?

    If they are hoping that it will break the will of the Ukrainian people, I fear it will have exactly the opposite effect. Ukrainians will want to fight the evil, and their fighters will be less likely to surrender. It will make countries slightly less likely to support Russia. It will strengthen the support of Ukraine amongst civilised nations.

    My takeaway from this (and the Russian Embassy in the UK's tweet yesterday) is that Russia don't care. Godwinning myself, they are like Nazi Germany. They believe they have right on their side, and if they are right, they can do anything.

    Which is why they need to lose - however you define 'lose'...

    Not appropriate for a Godwin.

    The Nazis went to enormous lengths to cover up their crimes.

    Goebbels would never have been so dumb as to release these videos. He would have had videos of happy Ukrainians, glad to be freed of their hated overlords, living in model camps where conditions were not luxurious but were comfortable.

    As for the videos, I don't think it's to scare the Ukrainians, I think it's to try and guilt trip the west. 'You made them fight and now look what's happened!'

    Bear in mind,* the Russian government really *is* this stupid. They are third rate drunks, liars, thieves and charlatans who live a live of extraordinary luxury totally divorced from reality, to the extent they don't relate to the world itself any more. They only fear losing their wealth and power, why should they not assume others think the same way?

    *No pun intended, for once.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    These videos of Russians committing serious war crimes against Ukrainian POWs are interesting. (Note I do not add 'allegedly' to this.) What do the Russians hope to gain from such treatment and the release of the videos?

    If they are hoping that it will break the will of the Ukrainian people, I fear it will have exactly the opposite effect. Ukrainians will want to fight the evil, and their fighters will be less likely to surrender. It will make countries slightly less likely to support Russia. It will strengthen the support of Ukraine amongst civilised nations.

    My takeaway from this (and the Russian Embassy in the UK's tweet yesterday) is that Russia don't care. Godwinning myself, they are like Nazi Germany. They believe they have right on their side, and if they are right, they can do anything.

    Which is why they need to lose - however you define 'lose'...

    So they are the baddies?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting to wonder how our government would react to another Salisbury style poisoning.

    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.
    Who were the many? And "hesitant" doesn't begin to explain Corbyn's Soviet- loving treason.
    The 'many' were anyone who backed Corbyn at the time. To their credit, many Labourites did not. Starmer did disagree with Corbyn at the time - though not in parliament. He also did not add his name to the EDM by Labour backbenchers that blamed Russia for the poisoning.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    These videos of Russians committing serious war crimes against Ukrainian POWs are interesting. (Note I do not add 'allegedly' to this.) What do the Russians hope to gain from such treatment and the release of the videos?

    If they are hoping that it will break the will of the Ukrainian people, I fear it will have exactly the opposite effect. Ukrainians will want to fight the evil, and their fighters will be less likely to surrender. It will make countries slightly less likely to support Russia. It will strengthen the support of Ukraine amongst civilised nations.

    My takeaway from this (and the Russian Embassy in the UK's tweet yesterday) is that Russia don't care. Godwinning myself, they are like Nazi Germany. They believe they have right on their side, and if they are right, they can do anything.

    Which is why they need to lose - however you define 'lose'...

    One theory is that they want to provoke similar retaliation from the Ukrainians so they can say to the West: "You see? This is what we're dealing with."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    edited July 2022



    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.

    Who were the many? And "hesitant" doesn't begin to explain Corbyn's Soviet- loving treason.
    To be fair, Corbyn said he wanted to examine the evidence before commenting. He was given a briefing by MI5, said he was convinced, and supported sanctions against Russia in retaliation. One can argue that the case was obvious and he shouldn't have needed convincing, but there's something to be said for a judicious approach, as history is littered with "obvious" cases which proved to be otherwise. Politically it's dangerous, though, as these days you're expected to have an instant view on anything, and caution is taken as hostility (or even, as Mex would have it, treason).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,549



    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.

    Who were the many? And "hesitant" doesn't begin to explain Corbyn's Soviet- loving treason.
    To be fair, Corbyn said he wanted to examine the evidence before commenting. He was given a briefing by MI5, said he was convinced, and supported sanctions against Russia in retaliation. One can argue that the case was obvious and he shouldn't have needed convincing, but there's something to be said for a judicious approach, as history is littered with "obvious" cases which proved to be otherwise. Politically it's dangerous, though, as these days you're expected to have an instant view on anything, and caution is taken as hostility (or even, as Mex would have it, treason).
    He wanted to delay and obfuscate. Just as he did in February. He's so convinced that *we* are the bad guys, he finds it almost impossible to blame others.

    And need I remind you of your 'poke' comment at the beginning of this?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    These videos of Russians committing serious war crimes against Ukrainian POWs are interesting. (Note I do not add 'allegedly' to this.) What do the Russians hope to gain from such treatment and the release of the videos?

    If they are hoping that it will break the will of the Ukrainian people, I fear it will have exactly the opposite effect. Ukrainians will want to fight the evil, and their fighters will be less likely to surrender. It will make countries slightly less likely to support Russia. It will strengthen the support of Ukraine amongst civilised nations.

    My takeaway from this (and the Russian Embassy in the UK's tweet yesterday) is that Russia don't care. Godwinning myself, they are like Nazi Germany. They believe they have right on their side, and if they are right, they can do anything.

    Which is why they need to lose - however you define 'lose'...

    Not appropriate for a Godwin.

    The Nazis went to enormous lengths to cover up their crimes.

    Goebbels would never have been so dumb as to release these videos. He would have had videos of happy Ukrainians, glad to be freed of their hated overlords, living in model camps where conditions were not luxurious but were comfortable.

    As for the videos, I don't think it's to scare the Ukrainians, I think it's to try and guilt trip the west. 'You made them fight and now look what's happened!'

    Bear in mind,* the Russian government really *is* this stupid. They are third rate drunks, liars, thieves and charlatans who live a live of extraordinary luxury totally divorced from reality, to the extent they don't relate to the world itself any more. They only fear losing their wealth and power, why should they not assume others think the same way?

    *No pun intended, for once.
    I am persuaded by the argument this is aimed at the Russian military rank and file, to close off the option of surrender. It is satisfying to claim the government is merely stupid, but you are talking about the people who talked Merkel into reliance on Nord Stream. So they probably aren't.
  • Corbyn was going to condemn Russia in the Commons but he allowed Seumus to overrule him.

    Such a stupid decision that McDonnell and his spin doctor threw objects across a room in disgust, “he’s lost us the fucking election!”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    This has penalties written all over it. And we know how how that ends.

    This referee will give Germany a penalty soon enough I fear.
    Time to end support for Ukraine
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603



    I'd argue we reacted very well to the initial Salisbury event: we gathered evidence, saw where it led, and convinced loads of countries to put sanctions on Russia. You could argue those sanctions could (and should) have been stronger, but there are allegations that Russia has been topping people around the world in similar manners: and we were the only major country to complain about it. And we had to take the rest of the civilised world with us.

    It's a shame that Corbyn and many Labour figures at the time were so (ahem) hesitant to apportion blame.

    Who were the many? And "hesitant" doesn't begin to explain Corbyn's Soviet- loving treason.
    To be fair, Corbyn said he wanted to examine the evidence before commenting. He was given a briefing by MI5, said he was convinced, and supported sanctions against Russia in retaliation. One can argue that the case was obvious and he shouldn't have needed convincing, but there's something to be said for a judicious approach, as history is littered with "obvious" cases which proved to be otherwise. Politically it's dangerous, though, as these days you're expected to have an instant view on anything, and caution is taken as hostility (or even, as Mex would have it, treason).
    Corbyn's sympathetic hearing of Russia was in no small part why he unravelled in GE2019.

    Were Corbyn LOTO at present he would very much struggle to condemn Putin in Ukraine.
This discussion has been closed.