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Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,624
edited August 2022 in General
Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead – politicalbetting.com

?NEW POLL?Poll of Conservative Cllrs ahead of the Conservative Leadership election.Liz Truss 31%Rishi Sunak 29%Undecided 32%511 Conservative Cllrs27-29 July pic.twitter.com/n1Cl4EDoCL

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,503
    13% Labour lead. Conservatives closing in!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022
    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?
  • vikvik Posts: 551
    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Russian state media reporting that the HQ of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been hit by a drone attack, wounding five. Today is Navy Day in Russia, major naval parades planned in St. Petersburg and other cities.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1553601379175989254
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    11 Rishi Sunak 9%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    11 Rishi Sunak 9%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Euro 2022 final; 17:00 tonight; Wembley

    England 2.6
    Germany 3.1
    Draw 3.3

    Heja Europa! 🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    Punters concur: the current FAV in the Liz Truss vote share market is the 60-65% band, at 12/5.

    If anyone out there thinks that Truss is going to crash n burn, you can get 29/1 for Under 40%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Good morning, everyone.

    What percentage are councillors of the overall party membership, though?

    F1: interesting grid, got some betting ideas. We shall see what's up.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,983
    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    No, obviously not. The Lib Dem effort is patchy and in some places will be weak, while elsewhere it is strong. All the talk about the two-pronged challenge to Conservative domination is based on the fact that in some constituencies the main challenger is Labour, and elsewhere it is the Liberal Democrats.

    The Conservatives are a bitterly divided party, as their current leadership campaign shows only too well. And it is very hard for them to run a national campaign in the media, when they have to spread different messages in different places - anti Lib Dem as well as anti-Labour. I am sure their highly paid media-manipulators will do their best.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    For any who missed Badenoch’s article on Tavistock:

    https://archive.ph/1jQrO
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022
    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    CarlottaVance said:

    For any who missed Badenoch’s article on Tavistock:

    https://archive.ph/1jQrO

    Kemi would have fixed it but the nasty civil service blob obstructed her enquiries. Next week: how Kemi would have caught Jack the Ripper.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ClippP said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    No, obviously not. The Lib Dem effort is patchy and in some places will be weak, while elsewhere it is strong. All the talk about the two-pronged challenge to Conservative domination is based on the fact that in some constituencies the main challenger is Labour, and elsewhere it is the Liberal Democrats.

    The Conservatives are a bitterly divided party, as their current leadership campaign shows only too well. And it is very hard for them to run a national campaign in the media, when they have to spread different messages in different places - anti Lib Dem as well as anti-Labour. I am sure their highly paid media-manipulators will do their best.
    You make a very important point regarding different messages to different groups of voters (and 2019 DNVs: a crucial demographic imho).

    However, that problem is not unique to the Tories! Just ask the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are often crippled by the daft messaging emanating from their leadership south of the border.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    Who’d’ve thunk that leaving the world’s most prosperous free trade area would hurt the economy?

    Cameron really was an horrifically poor campaigner.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
    So, Labour have given up on Scotland.

    Not news.

    Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited July 2022
    The Savanta ComRes poll in the thread header is two weeks old - fieldwork 15-17 July.

    There is a more recent Savanta ComRes (21 July) - Lab 44, Con 33 - but even that is 10 days old.

    There are a whole host of more recent polls from other pollsters:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MikeL said:

    The Savanta ComRes poll in the thread header is two weeks old - fieldwork 15-17 July.

    There is a more recent Savanta ComRes (21 July) - Lab 44, Con 33 - but even that is 10 days old.

    There are a whole host of more recent polls from other pollsters:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I was confused by that too. I thought Mike must have access to some poll us mere mortals lack knowledge of.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,522
    Oryx update:

    Numbers have been going up somewhat slowly, but according to Oryx's figures, Russia has lost 910 tanks and 4,997 vehicles in total.

    Real numbers are probably much higher, as many of the losses are now occurring deep behind Russian lines and photographic evidence is probably harder to come by.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
    So, Labour have given up on Scotland.

    Not news.

    Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.

    I want the Tories to lose the next election. That is far more important to me than Labour winning it. My guess - which could be very wrong - is that if the Tories are defeated a lot of the facts on the ground will change quite quickly in a lot of places in the UK in a lot of ways. We'll see. Hopefully.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Norris at 4.3 for a podium (hedged at 1.6) and Russell to win at 5.2 (hedged at 2, Smarkets prices).

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/hungary-pre-race-2022.html
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
    So, Labour have given up on Scotland.

    Not news.

    Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.

    I want the Tories to lose the next election. That is far more important to me than Labour winning it. My guess - which could be very wrong - is that if the Tories are defeated a lot of the facts on the ground will change quite quickly in a lot of places in the UK in a lot of ways. We'll see. Hopefully.

    The more time goes by since the 2007 collapse of the Scottish Labour hegemony, the harder it will be for them to ever recover. Fifteen long years of SLab misery have already ticked by.

    Labour are the final bastion of the Union. If they give up (and it looks to me that most members down south have indeed given up) then the Union is lost.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edmundintokyo said:

    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
    We’ll book Judi’s room now, for the Scone coronation. I assume The Salutation will do?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Mr. Dickson, question: Scotland went from no seat numbers changing to collapse of the Labour Party there. Why the cliff-edge rather than a gradual (or even rapid, but not instant) recession of support?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    edmundintokyo said:

    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
    There are two different mechanisms to skipping a generation.

    The first is an amendment to the Act of Settlement. There are some complications to this approach, notably that other Crown Realms, such as Australia, would also have to pass legislation to modify the succession.

    The second is to force Charles to abdicate, which he might choose to do if threatened with the first and offered a payoff.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,671
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, question: Scotland went from no seat numbers changing to collapse of the Labour Party there. Why the cliff-edge rather than a gradual (or even rapid, but not instant) recession of support?

    ..




  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).
    ...

    They did get a boost after the by-elections, and polled their highest shares for many years, but the boost was from a low base.

    This is obvious from the opinion poll graph on Wikipedia.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
    So, Labour have given up on Scotland.

    Not news.

    Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.

    I want the Tories to lose the next election. That is far more important to me than Labour winning it. My guess - which could be very wrong - is that if the Tories are defeated a lot of the facts on the ground will change quite quickly in a lot of places in the UK in a lot of ways. We'll see. Hopefully.

    The more time goes by since the 2007 collapse of the Scottish Labour hegemony, the harder it will be for them to ever recover. Fifteen long years of SLab misery have already ticked by.

    Labour are the final bastion of the Union. If they give up (and it looks to me that most members down south have indeed given up) then the Union is lost.

    I think you are right that most English Labour members would be fine with the end of the Union. On balance, although I feel far more English than British, I would prefer to keep it as I am generally opposed to creating international borders where they do not currently exist. But should it end it would not break my heart and I would be very keen to build a strong and close relationship with an independent Scotland. However, I suspect that what we'd actually end up with is Brexit on steroids.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    What percentage are councillors of the overall party membership, though?

    F1: interesting grid, got some betting ideas. We shall see what's up.

    Just under 7,000 councillors, which would make them 5% of a 140,000 turnout.

    If you assume that Sunak would have majority support in a forced choice of MPs, I think I'd expect councillors to be somewhere in between MPs and the wider membership. So level with councillors is consistent with Sunak being behind with members.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, question: Scotland went from no seat numbers changing to collapse of the Labour Party there. Why the cliff-edge rather than a gradual (or even rapid, but not instant) recession of support?

    It only looks that way if you gaze at Caledonian affairs from within the Westminster bubble 😉

    The undermining of the SLab bastions took decades of amazingly hard groundwork. I was there in the gritty trenches myself for many years in the 80s, 90s and early 00s. We on the ground could feel their support getting softer and softer: it was no longer pro-Labour but increasingly anti-Tory. It was just a matter of time before the whole stinking morass of corruption and filth collapsed under the weight of its own illogicality.

    The key thing to understand about Scottish politics is that it is just that: the public affairs of the Scottish nation. You cannot win votes by being anti-Scottish.

    I know exactly how Unionists could save the Union, and I am 100% confident that they will not choose the only path that will work. Why? Because it would mean being ferociously pro-Scottish, and that would go down like a lead balloon furth of the country.

    Morris, for you the key year may seem to be 2015. It wasn’t. 1727, 1780, 1885, 1945, 1950, 1967, 1973, 1979, 1988, 1989, 1999 and 2007 were just as significant, often more so.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
    Liz giving sad middle aged men a semi? Sean usually appears later in the day, after his first joint has soothed the raging hangover.

    Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    edited July 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, question: Scotland went from no seat numbers changing to collapse of the Labour Party there. Why the cliff-edge rather than a gradual (or even rapid, but not instant) recession of support?

    ..




    What on earth was Johan Lamont doing? That is on the full frontal lobotomy scale of political madness.

    I love that photo.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    StuartDickson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
    Liz giving sad middle aged men a semi? Sean usually appears later in the day, after his first joint has soothed the raging hangover.

    Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
    The English perhaps find it harder to express positive emotions, so they tend to come out in more negative ways.

    Some years ago, when I was still in a relationship with my daughter's mother, we visited her aunt. I think something happened with difficulty opening a jar, I forget the details, and my daughter's granny ended up in a physical altercation with my daughter's great-aunt. After it was done there was some fond reminiscing of a fight years previously that had led to a broken finger.

    Europeans are family. The English are very fond of them, but this is expressed in a similar sibling fractiousness.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    No, there is hysteresis in economics. The solution will be a different way forward, though I'm not sure exactly how best to achieve it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,807
    StuartDickson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
    Liz giving sad middle aged men a semi? Sean usually appears later in the day, after his first joint has soothed the raging hangover.

    Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
    Equally, do you just love getting into fights on here? You are upfront about your dislike, hatred even, of England and English people yet come onto a board run by them, largely used by them, just to tell them? You’ve personally got some massive projection issues going on here.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).
    ...

    They did get a boost after the by-elections, and polled their highest shares for many years, but the boost was from a low base.

    This is obvious from the opinion poll graph on Wikipedia.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
    When they have been polling regularly 15%+ in the past they have had not just good leaders like Ashdown, Kennedy or Clegg, but those were also backed up by the likes of Williams, Cable, Hughes, Laws, Campbell, Alexander.

    Not sure if it is simply a matter of not getting enough publicity and attention but none of the current lot are coming across as of that calibre to me, and I should be a natural, and in the current political climate, easy win for them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,807
    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    I think it’s poor writing - “take advantage of Brexit” is the first in a list of things Tories think she’ll do best. Crime and the Russian invasion are next on the list rather than being predicated on the first.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,387
    The more I read about the Tavistock, the more surprised I become. Off-label uses for drugs are usually for good reasons with good science behind it. If it turns out, the science is scarce, they could be in trouble with their professional groupings.

    I haven't read the Cass Report fully, but I suspect the GMC will.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    @Leon I was thinking about your request for suggestions of somewhere historical to go with your daughter. One place I took our children for a weekend once when my wife was away for work is Canterbury. There is a lot to do there - we visited the cathedral, the Canterbury Tales experience (kitch, fun) and the excellent town museum on the Sunday. On the Saturday we hired bikes and cycled the Crab and Winkle Way to Whitstable. We ate at Yo Sushi and Pizza Express. The children really enjoyed it all. And it's not too far from London.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,522
    DougSeal said:

    StuartDickson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
    Liz giving sad middle aged men a semi? Sean usually appears later in the day, after his first joint has soothed the raging hangover.

    Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
    Equally, do you just love getting into fights on here? You are upfront about your dislike, hatred even, of England and English people yet come onto a board run by them, largely used by them, just to tell them? You’ve personally got some massive projection issues going on here.
    It's particularly funny when he tells English people off for having no knowledge about Scotland (wrongly, in many cases), and then talks about his hatred of England and love of Scotland from his home in Sweden...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,807
    edited July 2022
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    @Leon I was thinking about your request for suggestions of somewhere historical to go with your daughter. One place I took our children for a weekend once when my wife was away for work is Canterbury. There is a lot to do there - we visited the cathedral, the Canterbury Tales experience (kitch, fun) and the excellent town museum on the Sunday. On the Saturday we hired bikes and cycled the Crab and Winkle Way to Whitstable. We ate at Yo Sushi and Pizza Express. The children really enjoyed it all. And it's not too far from London.

    I’m from Canterbury! You’d have biked past my parents’ house in Blean. It’s ace but sadly the Canterbury Tales has closed…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    “One day we may look back & wonder at how a regressive and controversial worldview – that being a woman is not a scientific fact but variously an inner feeling or conformity to sexist stereotypes – came to exert so much influence” 👏 @soniasodha

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1553638461801959426
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    DougSeal said:

    Is Malc okay?

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    @Leon I was thinking about your request for suggestions of somewhere historical to go with your daughter. One place I took our children for a weekend once when my wife was away for work is Canterbury. There is a lot to do there - we visited the cathedral, the Canterbury Tales experience (kitch, fun) and the excellent town museum on the Sunday. On the Saturday we hired bikes and cycled the Crab and Winkle Way to Whitstable. We ate at Yo Sushi and Pizza Express. The children really enjoyed it all. And it's not too far from London.

    I’m from Canterbury! You’d have biked past my parents’ house in Blean. It’s ace but sadly the Canterbury Tales has closed…
    Oh no! That is really sad news, it was a great attraction. A victim of Covid? Hopefully the Cathedral won't be next!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,342
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Norris at 4.3 for a podium (hedged at 1.6) and Russell to win at 5.2 (hedged at 2, Smarkets prices).

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/hungary-pre-race-2022.html

    The guy on pole position, at a track described as like Monaco without the barriers, is 4/1 to win the race? That’s a total steal.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Loving those Brexit opportunities!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I was a little surprised. The start might make or break it, of course. Though Ferrari often get things wrong or just fail anyway.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    StuartDickson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    vik said:

    The poll is not as bad for Truss as it appears from the headline. I think it's highly unlikely that her vote percentage will be below 55%.

    From the Telegraph article:

    "61 per cent want Boris Johnson’s successor to scrap the health and social care levy introduced in April – a key policy advocated by Liz Truss – while 60 per cent support an income tax cut within months of the new prime minister entering Downing Street."

    and:

    "Overall, Ms Truss is trusted more to take advantage of post-Brexit opportunities, manage the UK’s borders, reduce crime, respond well to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and attract local voters to the Conservative Party, according to the survey ... Mr Sunak was trusted most to manage the economy and NHS."

    So they don't think the benefits of Brexit are likely to be economic.

    "Taking advantage of post-Brexit opportunities" just means getting into fights with the French to give Daily Express readers a semi. This is an area of endeavour in which I would imagine Liz Truss will excell.
    Liz giving sad middle aged men a semi? Sean usually appears later in the day, after his first joint has soothed the raging hangover.

    Why do the English just love getting into fights with the neighbours? Not just the French. The Irish, Dutch, Germans, Scots and Welsh often get an earful too. Most civilised countries have got beyond such childishness, but the English are nothing if not antediluvian.
    just to prove you are wrong, I forgive you and wish you all the best
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,342
    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    noneoftheabove said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    I think it may be beyond a governments control to improve economic living standards over the next decade from here. What we could improve in that timescale is their physical and mental health. Time for a health and well being party!
    That's possible, although I think there is scope to improve living standards by reducing living costs, rather than by increases in wages.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,611
    Mexicanpete said:

    13% Labour lead. Conservatives closing in!

    Crossover approaching.....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,342
    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    He's just not as good at disguising it as Truss is. They are two cheeks of the same plutocratic arse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,611
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,302
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Let's just hope that these issues are fixed so that the many, many EU-based mainstays of the pop music scene are able to grace the multitudes with their talents after all. A summer without Vanessa Paradis and Kraftwerk isn't really a summer.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
    It won't be the big festivals that are affected by these extra frictions and costs. Glastonbury will be able to absorb them easily. It will be the smaller, grassroots events operating on a shoestring that will suffer. But cutting the British population off from Europe culturally is part of the Brexit project, very much a feature not a bug.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,724
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Let's just hope that these issues are fixed so that the many, many EU-based mainstays of the pop music scene are able to grace the multitudes with their talents after all. A summer without Vanessa Paradis and Kraftwerk isn't really a summer.
    The Brexit mindset.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,611
    LostPassword said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
    There are two different mechanisms to skipping a generation.

    The first is an amendment to the Act of Settlement. There are some complications to this approach, notably that other Crown Realms, such as Australia, would also have to pass legislation to modify the succession.

    The second is to force Charles to abdicate, which he might choose to do if threatened with the first and offered a payoff.
    Charles will never abdicate. He has seen his life purpose being (eventually) the Monarch and to serve its people, as his mother has done. Abdication just does not compute.

    A serious degenerative disease before London Bridge is the only circumstance I see it happening. Even large bungs of cash in suitcases won't be enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,503
    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Surprised to see the Liberal Democrat voting intention so low. I expected them to get a boost after their strong by-election performances and reasonably good local election performances (19%, +2).

    Here’s their VI in the last 10 polls (reverse chronological order):

    11%
    12%
    11%
    12%
    10%
    12%
    13%
    12%
    9%
    9%

    If they really are going to do well in the Home Counties and the south west, should they not be polling in the high teens?

    The way I look at it, just two things matter in the opinion polls:

    1. The Tory number

    2. The combined Labour, LibDem and Green number

    If the first is below 35 and the second is above 55, then we are looking at a change of government. If the first is below 40 and the second is between 50 and 55, then we may be looking at a change of government. If the first is above 40, it doesn't matter what the second is, the Tories stay in charge.

    As a Labour member, I’m surprised that you are not interested in Scottish voting intention, because Starmer cannot win a Majority without a very strong SLab recovery.

    Team Sarwar is currently underperforming.

    A modest SLab recovery to 25% (from 18.6% last time) would yield just 2 Gains. Starmer misery.

    A strong SLab recovery to 30% would yield just 14 Gains. Starmer grumpy.

    A very strong SLab recovery to 35% would yield 28 Gains. Starmer victorious.

    Sarwar’s team are currently on approx 22%. Hopelessly poor.

    Labour are very unlikely to win a majority at the next election. The best I can realistically hope for is the Tories losing. Given the damage the Tories have done - and are set to do over the next couple of years - that is also my overwhelming priority.
    So, Labour have given up on Scotland.

    Not news.

    Starmer’s conversion to ‘Muscular Unionism’ was the death knell.

    I want the Tories to lose the next election. That is far more important to me than Labour winning it. My guess - which could be very wrong - is that if the Tories are defeated a lot of the facts on the ground will change quite quickly in a lot of places in the UK in a lot of ways. We'll see. Hopefully.

    The more time goes by since the 2007 collapse of the Scottish Labour hegemony, the harder it will be for them to ever recover. Fifteen long years of SLab misery have already ticked by.

    Labour are the final bastion of the Union. If they give up (and it looks to me that most members down south have indeed given up) then the Union is lost.

    I think you are right that most English Labour members would be fine with the end of the Union. On balance, although I feel far more English than British, I would prefer to keep it as I am generally opposed to creating international borders where they do not currently exist. But should it end it would not break my heart and I would be very keen to build a strong and close relationship with an independent Scotland. However, I suspect that what we'd actually end up with is Brexit on steroids.
    We need PR for England and Wales in that event. Otherwise under FPTP we become a one party state. Well we are more or less a one party state now, but without Scotland, a one party state on steroids.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,836
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
    It won't be the big festivals that are affected by these extra frictions and costs. Glastonbury will be able to absorb them easily. It will be the smaller, grassroots events operating on a shoestring that will suffer. But cutting the British population off from Europe culturally is part of the Brexit project, very much a feature not a bug.
    I see this argument a lot, that somehow voting to leave a political institution means rejection of European culture. It’s complete rot.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,611
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
    It won't be the big festivals that are affected by these extra frictions and costs. Glastonbury will be able to absorb them easily. It will be the smaller, grassroots events operating on a shoestring that will suffer. But cutting the British population off from Europe culturally is part of the Brexit project, very much a feature not a bug.
    Er, bollocks. I run a smaller, grassroots event on a shoestring. We had no EU acts before Brexit. It makes no difference to us. We did, for example, have a fantastic contingent of six bands come down from Southend, and everyone concerned will be delighted for that to happen in 2023.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,272
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Let's just hope that these issues are fixed so that the many, many EU-based mainstays of the pop music scene are able to grace the multitudes with their talents after all. A summer without Vanessa Paradis and Kraftwerk isn't really a summer.

    Music festivals are struggling irrespective of this and a few have been cancelled.

    They are not cheap to go to and there are quite a lot of them. High ticket prices are deterring people who don’t have the disposable income.

    The cost of living crisis Will devastate the hospitality industry as disposable cash in peoples wallets falls considerably in October just in time for the Xmas party season which the industry relies on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jun/04/uk-summer-music-festivals-forced-to-close-as-cost-of-living-crisis-hits-home
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    pensions mainly
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    CarlottaVance said:

    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672

    The headline quoted in the tweet gives more context: BBC ‘disappearing women’ as gender quota filled by trans guests who self-identify
    Corporation’s 50:50 equality project fails to ‘monitor whether a contributor’s gender differs from their sex registered at birth’

    What is the alternative? Either you take guests' word for whether they sit down to pee or you make them give a blood sample for DNA testing.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,891
    state_go_away said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    pensions mainly
    Well companies aren’t going to be rushing to improve productivity so take the short term games because long term the company will be killed by someone who is more efficient
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,031
    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
    Brexit does not mean no bands will turn up, but the carnet issue is devastating and something that was obviously going to be an issue. I was banging on about it here pre brexit as it was an area I had some experience. A friend of mine who had an exhibition business was effectively put out of business overnight because he could no longer compete in Europe for any large event. If you are moving large trailers of equipment back and forth eg exhibitions, bands, F1 the impact is devastating. F1 will survive because it is so dominant here but it's still impacted and I'm sure they will warehouse a lot more in Europe.

    Just because bands still turn up does not mean it is devastating. Lots won't and the UK may stop being the kick off or central location for European tours
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    CarlottaVance said:

    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672

    In the twitter replies is this tweet, which is interesting in the context of some of the discussions yesterday.

    "slightlyatsea (Deb) 💙NHS
    @slightlyatsea
    Anyone feel like the reason we're making some progress here on #TERFIsland is that the fight here *is* led by feminists, not the right?
    1:40 PM · Jul 30, 2022"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/slightlyatsea/status/1553359819528196096
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,503
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    He's just not as good at disguising it as Truss is. They are two cheeks of the same plutocratic arse.
    ... and talking of plutocratic arses, Boris had his hooley at Bamford's gaff yesterday. Boris must be a very nice man with all these friends eager to lavish gifts on him in these difficult times.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,995
    edited July 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Every barrier in the world went up overnight': Some bands are skipping the UK because of Brexit
    After years of cancellations thanks to COVID, this summer sees the return of music festivals to the UK - but after leaving the EU, those involved with British events are facing challenges and calling for support.
    https://news.sky.com/story/every-barrier-in-the-world-went-up-overnight-music-festivals-call-for-help-with-brexit-issues-12658850

    Because Brexit meant no bands came to Glastonbury this year..... uh-huh....
    It won't be the big festivals that are affected by these extra frictions and costs. Glastonbury will be able to absorb them easily. It will be the smaller, grassroots events operating on a shoestring that will suffer. But cutting the British population off from Europe culturally is part of the Brexit project, very much a feature not a bug.
    Er, bollocks. I run a smaller, grassroots event on a shoestring. We had no EU acts before Brexit. It makes no difference to us. We did, for example, have a fantastic contingent of six bands come down from Southend, and everyone concerned will be delighted for that to happen in 2023.
    The article does suffer from the lack of any concrete examples. I.e. a well known US band touring the EU but skipping the UK.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672

    The headline quoted in the tweet gives more context: BBC ‘disappearing women’ as gender quota filled by trans guests who self-identify
    Corporation’s 50:50 equality project fails to ‘monitor whether a contributor’s gender differs from their sex registered at birth’

    What is the alternative? Either you take guests' word for whether they sit down to pee or you make them give a blood sample for DNA testing.
    Can we not just get Nadine to decide based on her legendary common sense? Would keep her away from more important matters (to the rest of us) if nothing else.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,272
    Another senior Tory, on seeing the way the wind is blowing, ‘rushes to the aid of the Victor’

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1553646395743158274?s=21&t=TUAcC5T28mZa3Wz6ZyZ02Q
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,342
    JosiasJessop said:

    Oryx update:

    Numbers have been going up somewhat slowly, but according to Oryx's figures, Russia has lost 910 tanks and 4,997 vehicles in total.

    Real numbers are probably much higher, as many of the losses are now occurring deep behind Russian lines and photographic evidence is probably harder to come by.

    The Ukranian numbers are 1,750 tanks and 4,000 other armoured vehicles. https://www.minusrus.com/en

    Assuming the actual number is somewhere in the middle, that’s around 40% of the entire Russian army’s tanks, lost in only five months of war. We also know that most of what’s left are relics of the 1960s, that have been in what’s euphamisttically termed ‘storage’ for decades. It’s quite likely that, by the end of the summer, they’re going to be struggling to find any serviceable tanks to get to the front lines.

    It now looks like the Russians in Kherson have lost all their supply routes apart from the river itself. They’re quickly going to have to either retreat without their equipment, or be starved out with nightly bombardments on their undefended positions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672

    The headline quoted in the tweet gives more context: BBC ‘disappearing women’ as gender quota filled by trans guests who self-identify
    Corporation’s 50:50 equality project fails to ‘monitor whether a contributor’s gender differs from their sex registered at birth’

    What is the alternative? Either you take guests' word for whether they sit down to pee or you make them give a blood sample for DNA testing.
    You can ask for people's biological sex and gender identity separately and trust them to be honest, and then you have better data to do your equality monitoring with.

    You get to monitor that you have any trans guests at all for starters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,342
    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    Everyone who works for a British company, and many more who will get jobs in companies which relocate thanks to the advantageous tax regime.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,995
    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    Everyone who works for a British company, and many more who will get jobs in companies which relocate thanks to the advantageous tax regime.
    Eh? It's just putting us back to the status quo.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    Everyone who works for a British company, and many more who will get jobs in companies which relocate thanks to the advantageous tax regime.
    Nah, that is just a race to the bottom, and any such incoming companies will leave when the next country offers them 1% less than our rate. Attract investment through innovative education to meet the needs of the modern economy, including ongoing education for adults, rather than shovelling yet more wealth to the ultra rich and indulging in education nostalgia fantasies from the 1950s.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    LostPassword said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    “The BBC has now ‘disappeared’ women as a sex class and instead monitors ‘gender identity’. It’s redefined a word which we all understand, without any public debate… following ‘Stonewall law’ in failing to respect sex as as a protected characteristic”

    https://twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1553643249474076672

    The headline quoted in the tweet gives more context: BBC ‘disappearing women’ as gender quota filled by trans guests who self-identify
    Corporation’s 50:50 equality project fails to ‘monitor whether a contributor’s gender differs from their sex registered at birth’

    What is the alternative? Either you take guests' word for whether they sit down to pee or you make them give a blood sample for DNA testing.
    You can ask for people's biological sex and gender identity separately and trust them to be honest, and then you have better data to do your equality monitoring with.

    You get to monitor that you have any trans guests at all for starters.
    No harm in doing both. Which is why if the Scottish Census wasn’t already a complete car crash because of abysmal return rates it would be anyway because they decided that people could decide what sex they were whatever their birth certificate said.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    edited July 2022
    edmundintokyo said:

    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
    It's happened before. Complete with automatic transfer of Divine Right. Come to think of it, 'divine' is an appropriate term especially for Dame Judi!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    sbjme19 said:

    I'm glad 56% think there should be an election. Seeing Tory members interviewed on TV, at least half still support Boris. I don't think the people choosing the next PM should be people who don't think there should be a change anyway...it's a mad situation.

    I think that Brexit has quite literally driven Tories mad. They have lost their senses. Support for The Oaf is simply a manifestation of their collective mental breakdown.

    The interesting question is: what is the cure? All countries need a moderate centre-right, pro-business, pro-good governance party. Even England. How does the English nation regain such a party? Only one route is obvious: PR.

    Over to you Mr Starmer: save the Conservative & Unionist Party, cos they ain’t gonna save themselves.
    Brexit was a symptom, not a cause.

    Economic globalisation has led to most people's living standards in the West stagnating, and they aren't happy about it. This has led to the collapse of the political centre in most countries, though this has been expressed in different ways. Brexit, and increased support for Scottish independence, were the particular manifestations in Britain.

    This is seen in other European countries that use PR. The way to fix the issue is through the economic fundamentals. Improve people's living standards.
    Improve people’s living standards by… reversing globalisation?!? Cos that seems to be what you are advocating.

    Very “brave”.
    Yes. The return of domestic manufacturing offshored to China, and the creation of more good working-class jobs.

    The mess the economy is in right now, is a direct result of globalisation policies that have hollowed-out Western middle classes over the past few decades.

    If your government is run for the top 10%, don’t be surprised if 90% don’t like it.
    And instead vote in politicians funded by and introducing laws for the top 0.1%!
    Which is a large part of why Richi Rich is floundering.
    Rishi's corporation tax rises are being reversed, I wonder who that benefits?
    Everyone who works for a British company, and many more who will get jobs in companies which relocate thanks to the advantageous tax regime.
    There will be no relocation, for why have not these companies come here already for those very same corporation tax rates? The rise in corporation tax is not till next year. Liz Truss wants to cancel the planned rise, not drop rates below where they are now.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    There was a poll yesterday that said Truss would lead Labour by 1 point
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,017
    Taz said:

    Another senior Tory, on seeing the way the wind is blowing, ‘rushes to the aid of the Victor’

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1553646395743158274?s=21&t=TUAcC5T28mZa3Wz6ZyZ02Q

    There are going to be a lot of pissed off Conservative MPs who were sure that Truss had promised them an important job!
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    Carnyx said:



    edmundintokyo said:

    StuartDickson said:

    The Duke of Rothesay making an absolute arse of himself. Again. His minders must be ripping their hair out.

    What is the mechanism for skipping straight from Elisabeth to William? Can the Daftie be forced out?

    There's no mechanism to skip a generation. If you don't want Charles the only way to avoid it is if we make Dame Judi Dench the next monarch by general acclamation. No need to be weird about it or anything, everybody has to just act like it's the normal thing that Queen Elizabeth is dead so now the new Queen is Queen Judi.
    It's happened before. Complete with automatic transfer of Divine Right. Come to think of it, 'divine' is an appropriate term especially for Dame Judi!
    We could be really progressive and follow her with Queen Eddie

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,538
    If Truss wins, it would be 1st time party members have chosen PM against wishes of MPs: @Independent Editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/tory-leadership-liz-truss-rishi-sunak-b2134748.html https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1553653127366250496/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,503
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    There was a poll yesterday that said Truss would lead Labour by 1 point

    The question isn't if she has a honeymoon, but for how long will the honeymoon last?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Mexicanpete said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    There was a poll yesterday that said Truss would lead Labour by 1 point

    The question isn't if she has a honeymoon, but for how long will the honeymoon last?
    That wasn't my point Pete. My point was that she ties Labour within MoE, not exactly the kind of bounce Johnson, May, or even Brown saw.
This discussion has been closed.

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