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YouGov’s CON members’ polling head to heads – politicalbetting.com
YouGov’s CON members’ polling head to heads – politicalbetting.com
I am finding the above YouGov CON Member’s table on Wikipedia to be an excellent resource during the current contest.
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I looked in half an hour ago and passed up the first, only to find it still, apparently, on offer.
F1: bit sleepy at the moment but it seems Sainz has at least a 10 place penalty and may start further back with more changes, and Red Bull have been struggling a bit.
But the top 2 teams remain the class of the field. Interesting difficulties for them, though.
1.45 Liz Truss 69%
3.2 Rishi Sunak 31%
Next Conservative leader
1.44 Liz Truss 69%
3.25 Rishi Sunak 31%
Inside the brutal battle for the soul of the Tory party.
By me, @SophiaSleigh and @nedsimons
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-battle-for-soul-tory-party_uk_62d97a0be4b06e213fbc9ff6
This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311
It’s possible that a lot of the remaining members are only there because of the Clown and May leave now Bozo isn’t the leader.
And if Truss is leader I can see a situation where saner members also leave… heck how likely is TSE to stay if Truss arrives and follows the Minford plan..
Best PM:
Truss 38, Starmer 37
Starmer 40, Sunak 36
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer
I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.
Lab 44 (+1)
Con 33 (+3)
Getting rid of Boris (All voters):
Right 60
Mistake 27
Getting rid of Boris (Con voters only):
Right 43
Mistake 49
Overwhelming support for Net Zero amongst All voters and Con voters.
"Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.
Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.
However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.
Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.
The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."
What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.
I'm still not sure there's much switching going on.
Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,109 UK adults aged 18+ online on 21 July 2022. Data was weighted to be representative of all UK adults by age, sex, region, and SEG. Voting intention is also weighted by past vote recall (2019 and 2016) and likelihood to vote.
In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.
The problem with Truss - not so much a problem for her - is that what she's proposing would make things a hundred times worse.
Can anyone with even a single functioning braincell say he got Brexit done?
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1550455087100825602
The fact that inflation would be very similar to that interest rate (so the actual interest earnt would be zero) is lost on everyone.
I see the queues as reported on the BBC website. It seems the people of Dover voted for the end of their own free movement after all
Even with this new deal between Russia and Ukraine on grain exports, however, that seems unlikely for now at least.
I suspect all 3 hours were spent by the other 11 trying to convince that person that Bannon was a complete idiot and deserved no help.
Helpfully, it probably removes Bannon from circulation for 2024, as if the sentence is the maximum - and I can't see why it wouldn't be - he'd be released either very shortly before, or after, the elections.
But, my goodness, what an idiot. Saying he thought subpoenas were 'negotiable,' that his appeal is 'bullet proof,' that he's covered by 'executive privilege' when he clearly isn't, refusing to testify under oath to Congress and to his trial.
His reasoning seems to be 'you can't convict me because I'm Steve Bannon.' No wonder the jury weren't impressed.
And his attorney was no better. Like Giuliani on acid while filming Borat 2.
I can see why Bannon and his attorney weren't doing much - when you defence argument is being ignored and that isn't being discussed until October I can see why you may not be that concerned with what is almost a default judgment...
Like asking people if they would like a Ferrari and a mansion. Of course they would - the difficulty is they'll have to pay for it.
A better question is, "Are you in favour of Net Zero at a cost of at least a trillion pounds over the next twenty years, when the NHS has 5 million on the waiting list, taxes are at a record high and our armed forces are criminally underequipped?"
"Because debt is so high, it would be foolish for us to embark on a tax-cutting spree that would lead to even higher debt and feed the monster of inflation that we absolutely must tame. That is why Rishi is absolutely right to insist that we must bring down inflation first and steer our economy to a place where it would be safe to cut taxes."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/22/rishi-sunak-can-provide-leadership-country-needs/
Kherson city and significant forces encircled in the North of the Oblast.
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1550299514317279240?t=Pu8fKKVXsy0b0Juz77MdoQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550596245328171014
… Put simply, there are two battles for the Tory leadership going on.
The official one, between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, selected for the masses by Tory MPs, and the second unofficial campaign among some Tory grassroots activists to restore Boris Johnson to the throne...
Though granted there were a fair number of them who never possessed any in the first place.
Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.
It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/
And there is plenty of evidence that she will continue to do things even when others tell her to stop doing something so stupid...
By contrast, what does Starmer have? No-one can follow Starmer if he's too nervous to set out where he would lead.
I don’t entirely accept its thesis, but there’s clearly some truth in it.
The vibes theory of politics
Our ‘beliefs’ are often just unexamined tribal loyalties
https://twitter.com/CharlieBeckett/status/1550734323879477248
(To quibble, the author I think confuses ‘effect’ with ‘affect’.)
If anything I think the deal did not go nearly far enough in giving British consumers the benefits of cheaper food for decades.
https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1549370467580084225
https://twitter.com/katimcf/status/1549492282000285699
Labour, but also other parties, were as bad or worse on the EU. Giving away vetoes, and rebates, promising and reneging upon a referendum. Similarly, all parties have been very poor on energy policy, and defence.
Long term planning has been abysmal here. Partly that's down to the media fixation on bad news, short termism, and personalities over policies.
I'm not at all worried about the impact on British agriculture; we had free trade with Australia and New Zealand up until 1980 and (guess what!) British farming was fine.
We've also been part of a single agricultural market of over 400m people for the best part of 40 years, exposed to competition right across Europe that's barely 25 miles away, and that didn't collapse British farming either. The only real criticism I can make of it is that it doesn't contain enough clauses on climate change.
Criticism of this falls simply down Brexit lines: if the EU had done a similar deal (and, indeed, they are currently negotiating one) then precisely the same people would be applauding it.
But then we all know that.
But then it is playbook for the UK media shitshow - take an extreme case, get somebody to say "*this* would cause *that*", and try and hang it around the neck of the person who didn't say it in the first place.
There is a reason they are generally contemptible.
You may not agree with his views on the EU but he's a remarkably well-read and well-informed individual, and makes his arguments reasonably, proportionately and lucidly.
You are entirely unqualified to denigrate him with such smears.
People trying to discern what is going on on the ground at that sort of granularity from open-source maps are essentially reading the entrails of a snake.
However, in terms of tax cuts, I would stop there, other than further measures to mitigate energy price rises this Autumn.
It's essential to signpost to business investors and the markets that the UK has a sustainable and responsible path to balancing any structural deficit, and deal with debt, to maintain the value of the pound and avoid further inflation.
A lack of transparency leads to bad governance.
What I don't agree with, though, is this hyperbolic meme of yours that this government is a threat to the future of democracy in the UK.
You've got high on your own supply.
Every country has good and bad parts, both present day and historically. Blindly hating somewhere is just stupid.
Like the EU?
Even a small rise in interest rates will cause problems, especially on top of rising fuel bills.
Mind you, the film does sound ahistorical. If the film were set during the East India Company's rape of India, on the other hand...
"I'm going to maximise the opportunities that Brexit brings. But at the same time, I'm going to bring the nation together and heal the divisiveness of the last six years. No longer shall we be so hostile to great British institutions, or play fast and loose with the rule of law, or hostile to those who oppose our ideas. No longer will I allow our party to be accused of crony capitalism. I am going to repair Britain's deserved reputation as a beacon of fairness, common decency and good judgement, where sound money and a fair tax system are combined to both boost economic growth and deliver world-class public services."
And so on. I'm no Tory of course, but I wonder whether there's a larger constituency among members for a pro-Brexit, one-nation approach than people think.