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YouGov’s CON members’ polling head to heads – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 31 in General
imageYouGov’s CON members’ polling head to heads – politicalbetting.com

I am finding the above YouGov CON Member’s table on Wikipedia to be an excellent resource during the current contest.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530
    edited July 23
    Have we got comments issues again?

    I looked in half an hour ago and passed up the first, only to find it still, apparently, on offer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    Third. Apparently no issues if this appears.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
    No wonder it’s a bit quiet!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: bit sleepy at the moment but it seems Sainz has at least a 10 place penalty and may start further back with more changes, and Red Bull have been struggling a bit.

    But the top 2 teams remain the class of the field. Interesting difficulties for them, though.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,222
    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
    Then I have no problems to post.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.45 Liz Truss 69%
    3.2 Rishi Sunak 31%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.44 Liz Truss 69%
    3.25 Rishi Sunak 31%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
    Oh dear. Site could do with some Calmer Policing!
    Your efforts at punning produced No Surprises.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    On topic, re polling. I'd be concerned there might be a Yougov house effect favouring Liz Truss.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
    Oh dear. Site could do with some Calmer Policing!
    Your efforts at punning produced No Surprises.
    In that case, I shall Creep back under my (art) rock.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    “Liz Truss as prime minister of a G7 nation. Are you fucking kidding me?”

    Inside the brutal battle for the soul of the Tory party.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @nedsimons

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-battle-for-soul-tory-party_uk_62d97a0be4b06e213fbc9ff6
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    I am not sure people are paying enough attention to what is going on in the Conservative grassroots and many members’ fury over the defenestration of Boris Johnson.
    This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    On topic, re polling. I'd be concerned there might be a Yougov house effect favouring Liz Truss.

    I think it most unlikely that TSE favours Liz Truss.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    edited July 23
    Scott_xP said:

    I am not sure people are paying enough attention to what is going on in the Conservative grassroots and many members’ fury over the defenestration of Boris Johnson.
    This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311

    Chris Hope has been a massive cry baby for weeks about Johnson going.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Have we got comments issues again?

    People who have been rude about Radiohead in the past are struggling to post.
    Oh dear. Site could do with some Calmer Policing!
    Your efforts at punning produced No Surprises.
    In that case, I shall Creep back under my (art) rock.
    Indeed? Not dive into a moon-shaped pool?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I am not sure people are paying enough attention to what is going on in the Conservative grassroots and many members’ fury over the defenestration of Boris Johnson.
    This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311

    Chris Hope has been a massive cry baby for weeks about Johnson going.
    Which doesn’t mean he is wrong though.

    It’s possible that a lot of the remaining members are only there because of the Clown and May leave now Bozo isn’t the leader.

    And if Truss is leader I can see a situation where saner members also leave… heck how likely is TSE to stay if Truss arrives and follows the Minford plan..
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    edited July 23
    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Either Comres has lost its marbles, or the country has.

    I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 648
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I am not sure people are paying enough attention to what is going on in the Conservative grassroots and many members’ fury over the defenestration of Boris Johnson.
    This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311

    Chris Hope has been a massive cry baby for weeks about Johnson going.
    Which doesn’t mean he is wrong though.

    It’s possible that a lot of the remaining members are only there because of the Clown and May leave now Bozo isn’t the leader.

    And if Truss is leader I can see a situation where saner members also leave… heck how likely is TSE to stay if Truss arrives and follows the Minford plan..
    .....and it is too late for those who, appalled by Johnson, failed to renew their membership. Experience in Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire N. and Tiverton and Honiton was that lifelong Conservatives were very, very upset by Johnson's behaviour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    edited July 23
    SAVANTA COMRES (Express):

    Lab 44 (+1)
    Con 33 (+3)

    Getting rid of Boris (All voters):
    Right 60
    Mistake 27

    Getting rid of Boris (Con voters only):
    Right 43
    Mistake 49

    Overwhelming support for Net Zero amongst All voters and Con voters.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 648
    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Because it's the Daily Express I'd wait to see the ComRes source data myself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Incidentally, I have just been reading up on the Steve Bannon trial.

    What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Either Comres has lost its marbles, or the country has.

    I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.
    It could be that Truss firms up centre-right voters propensity to vote Conservative and Starmer is just meh for centre-left.

    I'm still not sure there's much switching going on.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    It's a bona fide poll:

    Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,109 UK adults aged 18+ online on 21 July 2022. Data was weighted to be representative of all UK adults by age, sex, region, and SEG. Voting intention is also weighted by past vote recall (2019 and 2016) and likelihood to vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Boris Johnson has effectively left office, with queues at Dover, a Brexit bill of €50 billion, and the EU now suing the UK for trying to unilaterally change the Brexit deal over Northern Ireland.

    Can anyone with even a single functioning braincell say he got Brexit done?

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1550455087100825602
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,286
    Batshit vs Billionaire. You have to admire MPs for being able to cut to the truth of things.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    ydoethur said:

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    I think Sunak's problem is that as Chancellor for two years he has to explain how it isn't his fault.

    The problem with Truss - not so much a problem for her - is that what she's proposing would make things a hundred times worse.
    That's the thing with Minford's announcement of 7% interest rates - it's a disaster for anyone who has borrowed money but looks brilliant for someone with a lot of savings earning nothing...

    The fact that inflation would be very similar to that interest rate (so the actual interest earnt would be zero) is lost on everyone.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,663
    Off Topic:

    I see the queues as reported on the BBC website. It seems the people of Dover voted for the end of their own free movement after all
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    I think Sunak's problem is that as Chancellor for two years he has to explain how it isn't his fault.

    The problem with Truss - not so much a problem for her - is that what she's proposing would make things a hundred times worse.
    That's the thing with Minford's announcement of 7% interest rates - it's a disaster for anyone who has borrowed money but looks brilliant for someone with a lot of savings earning nothing...

    The fact that inflation would be very similar to that interest rate (so the actual interest earnt would be zero) is lost on everyone.
    I think at the moment we'd be pretty happy if inflation fell below 7%.

    Even with this new deal between Russia and Ukraine on grain exports, however, that seems unlikely for now at least.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I have just been reading up on the Steve Bannon trial.

    What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.

    @rcs1000 pointed out yesterday that you would expect every trial to have at least 1 Trump supporter within it who can't see the problem.

    I suspect all 3 hours were spent by the other 11 trying to convince that person that Bannon was a complete idiot and deserved no help.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    edited July 23

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Team Truss might remind people that Rishi was the Chancellor who steered the economy into this hole. ETA scooped by ydoethur.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,286
    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    There was talk at the start of the year that if things went badly for Putin this could be another 1989 moment. Maybe for the UK too. The climax of the Lawson boom?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Either Comres has lost its marbles, or the country has.

    I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.

    People don't know who Truss is, so she gets a benefit of the doubt that Sunak does not get. Given what's coming when she takes over, those numbers are unlikely to last very long.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I have just been reading up on the Steve Bannon trial.

    What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.

    @rcs1000 pointed out yesterday that you would expect every trial to have at least 1 Trump supporter within it who can't see the problem.

    I suspect all 3 hours were spent by the other 11 trying to convince that person that Bannon was a complete idiot and deserved no help.
    Possibly, but it still seems fairly quick (although I don't know as much about American processes as about ours - do they still have the 'incarcerated until decided' rule)?

    Helpfully, it probably removes Bannon from circulation for 2024, as if the sentence is the maximum - and I can't see why it wouldn't be - he'd be released either very shortly before, or after, the elections.

    But, my goodness, what an idiot. Saying he thought subpoenas were 'negotiable,' that his appeal is 'bullet proof,' that he's covered by 'executive privilege' when he clearly isn't, refusing to testify under oath to Congress and to his trial.

    His reasoning seems to be 'you can't convict me because I'm Steve Bannon.' No wonder the jury weren't impressed.

    And his attorney was no better. Like Giuliani on acid while filming Borat 2.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I have just been reading up on the Steve Bannon trial.

    What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.

    @rcs1000 pointed out yesterday that you would expect every trial to have at least 1 Trump supporter within it who can't see the problem.

    I suspect all 3 hours were spent by the other 11 trying to convince that person that Bannon was a complete idiot and deserved no help.
    Possibly, but it still seems fairly quick (although I don't know as much about American processes as about ours - do they still have the 'incarcerated until decided' rule)?

    Helpfully, it probably removes Bannon from circulation for 2024, as if the sentence is the maximum - and I can't see why it wouldn't be - he'd be released either very shortly before, or after, the elections.

    But, my goodness, what an idiot. Saying he thought subpoenas were 'negotiable,' that his appeal is 'bullet proof,' that he's covered by 'executive privilege' when he clearly isn't, refusing to testify under oath to Congress and to his trial.

    His reasoning seems to be 'you can't convict me because I'm Steve Bannon.' No wonder the jury weren't impressed.

    And his attorney was no better. Like Giuliani on acid while filming Borat 2.
    Worth reading the Guardian report here https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/22/steve-bannon-trial-trump-contempt-congress-charges

    I can see why Bannon and his attorney weren't doing much - when you defence argument is being ignored and that isn't being discussed until October I can see why you may not be that concerned with what is almost a default judgment...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    I think Sunak's problem is that as Chancellor for two years he has to explain how it isn't his fault.

    The problem with Truss - not so much a problem for her - is that what she's proposing would make things a hundred times worse.
    That's the thing with Minford's announcement of 7% interest rates - it's a disaster for anyone who has borrowed money but looks brilliant for someone with a lot of savings earning nothing...

    The fact that inflation would be very similar to that interest rate (so the actual interest earnt would be zero) is lost on everyone.
    Tory members are disproportionately wealthy mortgage-free pensioners so 7% interest rates might be right up their alley. The electorate as a whole not so much. Incidentally this is what happens when you hitch your wagon to a dogmatic economic theorist like Minford who hasn't lived in the real world in decades.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,286

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,286

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Either Comres has lost its marbles, or the country has.

    I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.

    People don't know who Truss is, so she gets a benefit of the doubt that Sunak does not get. Given what's coming when she takes over, those numbers are unlikely to last very long.

    I think it's safe to assume that Liz Truss's honeymoon will be shorter than Miss Havisham's.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    Michael Howard on Sunak:

    "Because debt is so high, it would be foolish for us to embark on a tax-cutting spree that would lead to even higher debt and feed the monster of inflation that we absolutely must tame. That is why Rishi is absolutely right to insist that we must bring down inflation first and steer our economy to a place where it would be safe to cut taxes."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/22/rishi-sunak-can-provide-leadership-country-needs/
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215
    Looking forward to Truss and her 7% interest rates. What a joyful way to address the cost of living
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
    Sunak needs something big to turn this around in the next week because it seems the ballots are going out long before the bulk of the hustings.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521

    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    There was talk at the start of the year that if things went badly for Putin this could be another 1989 moment. Maybe for the UK too. The climax of the Lawson boom?
    Things beginning to look dicey in Kherson Oblast for Russia with the bridge out of action at
    Kherson city and significant forces encircled in the North of the Oblast.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1550299514317279240?t=Pu8fKKVXsy0b0Juz77MdoQ&s=19

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I am not sure people are paying enough attention to what is going on in the Conservative grassroots and many members’ fury over the defenestration of Boris Johnson.
    This could have long term (negative) consequences for the Conservative party. #ToryLeadershipContest

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550592779818082311

    Chris Hope has been a massive cry baby for weeks about Johnson going.
    Which doesn’t mean he is wrong though.

    It’s possible that a lot of the remaining members are only there because of the Clown and May leave now Bozo isn’t the leader.

    And if Truss is leader I can see a situation where saner members also leave… heck how likely is TSE to stay if Truss arrives and follows the Minford plan..
    The Conservative party, from top to bottom, seems to have taken leave of its senses.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1550596245328171014
    … Put simply, there are two battles for the Tory leadership going on.
    The official one, between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, selected for the masses by Tory MPs, and the second unofficial campaign among some Tory grassroots activists to restore Boris Johnson to the throne...


    Though granted there were a fair number of them who never possessed any in the first place.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,694
    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
    Sunak needs something big to turn this around in the next week because it seems the ballots are going out long before the bulk of the hustings.
    As Liz Truss’ economic plans seem to be unraveling already, we can but pray


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,164
    Cyclefree said:

    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.

    When everybody's getting screwed by inflation and you have labour shortages, anything producing "huge job losses" is a win. It means you have more stuff for less money.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Cyclefree said:

    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.

    It did help deliver Tiverton and Honiton for the Lib Dems.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
    Sunak needs something big to turn this around in the next week because it seems the ballots are going out long before the bulk of the hustings.
    As Liz Truss’ economic plans seem to be unraveling already, we can but pray


    They may unravel but I see nothing that stops her ending up in a position to implement them regardless.

    And there is plenty of evidence that she will continue to do things even when others tell her to stop doing something so stupid...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    Replace ‘EU’ with ‘UK’ and that makes as much sense. Possibly more.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    It never occurs to nationalists like Tombs that many of those opposing the government's disastrous approach to Brexit do so because they care deeply about the UK and its future.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Daily Express reporting a Savanta ComRes poll saying Truss preferred to Starmer as PM.

    Best PM:

    Truss 38, Starmer 37

    Starmer 40, Sunak 36

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1644629/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-poll-tory-leadership-labour-keir-starmer

    Either Comres has lost its marbles, or the country has.

    I'm no starry-eyed admirer of Starmer, but to suggest he would be a worse PM than Truss is as mad as suggesting the DfE are the right people to run education.
    The public in general are not necessarily great judges of economic policy, but they seem to have a nose for when people have self-belief, which they see as a desirable trait - if a politician doesn't have confidence in themself why should anyone else? And Truss at least has A Plan. Most people on here might not think that it is a good plan, but having a plan, setting out a direction for people to follow, is a pretty good start if you want to be a leader.

    By contrast, what does Starmer have? No-one can follow Starmer if he's too nervous to set out where he would lead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    Interesting article.
    I don’t entirely accept its thesis, but there’s clearly some truth in it.

    The vibes theory of politics
    Our ‘beliefs’ are often just unexamined tribal loyalties
    https://twitter.com/CharlieBeckett/status/1550734323879477248

    (To quibble, the author I think confuses ‘effect’ with ‘affect’.)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,580
    Cyclefree said:

    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.

    Look at the signatories to the letter - farmers who want to keep competition out and woke charities that hate free trade.

    If anything I think the deal did not go nearly far enough in giving British consumers the benefits of cheaper food for decades.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,082

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    It’s hardly a new development; arguably as old as history itself.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,802
    Sunak's main hope is to make the membership think the Liz Truss is actually Jeremey Hunt in a skin suit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    Let me guess: neither of them have mortgages, but do have savings?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    Foxy said:

    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    There was talk at the start of the year that if things went badly for Putin this could be another 1989 moment. Maybe for the UK too. The climax of the Lawson boom?
    Things beginning to look dicey in Kherson Oblast for Russia with the bridge out of action at
    Kherson city and significant forces encircled in the North of the Oblast.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1550299514317279240?t=Pu8fKKVXsy0b0Juz77MdoQ&s=19
    That encirclement hasn't happened. I posted a link to a tweet debunking it yesterday. People got a bit overexcited about a near encirclement.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,802

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    For your consideration in the all time list of great Twitter burns.

    https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1549370467580084225
    https://twitter.com/katimcf/status/1549492282000285699
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. B, the complacency of Labour when it came to long term matters was phenomenal. Inheriting a boom, they ran a deficit. They imposed political divisions permanently with the creation of devolved political bodies for everywhere that wasn't England (and then tried to slice England into pieces).

    Labour, but also other parties, were as bad or worse on the EU. Giving away vetoes, and rebates, promising and reneging upon a referendum. Similarly, all parties have been very poor on energy policy, and defence.

    Long term planning has been abysmal here. Partly that's down to the media fixation on bad news, short termism, and personalities over policies.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742
    Truss can’t have it both ways. On one hand championing Minford supporting her tax cuts but then ditching him when he says something not good for her campaign .

  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    nico679 said:

    Truss can’t have it both ways. On one hand championing Minford supporting her tax cuts but then ditching him when he says something not good for her campaign .

    She can because all she needs to do / what she can hope for is to ensure people hear that Minford or XYZ says it's a good idea and hope no one reports the word but and everything afterwards...

  • pm215pm215 Posts: 352

    By contrast, what does Starmer have? No-one can follow Starmer if he's too nervous to set out where he would lead.

    That one might change, of course. In his interview on the Alistair Campbell/Rory Stewart podcast he sketched his strategy as LOTO as a multistep (1) detoxify and deal with antisemitism (2) make the case that the Tories don't deserve to be in government (3) put the positive case for Labour; where we're now moving into step 3. Now, I dunno whether that is the best way to do it overall, but it does suggest there might be more emphasis on the "where Labour will lead us" part going forward. If so, we get to see if it feeds into best-PM and other polling figures.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    Alistair said:

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    For your consideration in the all time list of great Twitter burns.

    https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1549370467580084225
    https://twitter.com/katimcf/status/1549492282000285699
    I prefer this response below katimcf's


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Truss can’t have it both ways. On one hand championing Minford supporting her tax cuts but then ditching him when he says something not good for her campaign .

    She can because all she needs to do / what she can hope for is to ensure people hear that Minford or XYZ says it's a good idea and hope no one reports the word but and everything afterwards...

    Surely Sunak can’t miss this open goal in the debate on Monday .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    Historians have long had a tendency towards partisan political commentary, as far back as ancient Roman times,
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 352
    eek said:


    That's the thing with Minford's announcement of 7% interest rates - it's a disaster for anyone who has borrowed money but looks brilliant for someone with a lot of savings earning nothing...

    The fact that inflation would be very similar to that interest rate (so the actual interest earnt would be zero) is lost on everyone.

    Speaking as somebody with savings, 7% interest rates with 7% inflation sounds a lot better than the 3% interest rates and 10% inflation that we have now... (adjust figures to taste)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,554
    Scott_xP said:

    “Liz Truss as prime minister of a G7 nation. Are you fucking kidding me?”

    Inside the brutal battle for the soul of the Tory party.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @nedsimons

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-battle-for-soul-tory-party_uk_62d97a0be4b06e213fbc9ff6

    If that statement comes from a Tory MP, they only have themselves to blame. It was always abundantly clear that Sunak was not popular with the members, yet the 'gizzajob' numpties still voted for him, hoping that the engineered alternative would be so unthinkable that people would be forced to vote for the slightly less shit option. That doesn't work. People don't like being manipulated in that way. Basically Tory MP's passed on the good option, Mordaunt (I admit she didn't perform exceptionally in the campaign), now they're reaping what they've sown.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,082
    edited July 23
    Nigelb said:

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    It’s hardly a new development; arguably as old as history itself.
    No doubt but I suspect that they were not being megaphoned on whatever the equivalent was of an ahistorical, reactionary rag like the Tele. Their partisanship would I think be more about polishing a turd after the event rather than influencing current perceptions of said turd.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    It never occurs to nationalists like Tombs that many of those opposing the government's disastrous approach to Brexit do so because they care deeply about the UK and its future.

    Robert Tombs is a professor emeritus of French history at the University of Cambridge and a fellow of St John's College, Cambridge. He is also the recipient of the Ordre des Palmes académiques awarded by the French government. He is a respected and revered academic at the highest level, and a very intelligent man.

    You may not agree with his views on the EU but he's a remarkably well-read and well-informed individual, and makes his arguments reasonably, proportionately and lucidly.

    You are entirely unqualified to denigrate him with such smears.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
    Sunak needs something big to turn this around in the next week because it seems the ballots are going out long before the bulk of the hustings.
    True but it is in the early hustings that an unprepared Liz Truss is most likely to implode, so it is swings and roundabouts on early ballot returns.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    MattW said:

    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    Let me guess: neither of them have mortgages, but do have savings?
    The claim "to bring 7% interest rates" is a gormless, dishonest exaggeration of what was actually said by Minford.

    But then we all know that.

    But then it is playbook for the UK media shitshow - take an extreme case, get somebody to say "*this* would cause *that*", and try and hang it around the neck of the person who didn't say it in the first place.

    There is a reason they are generally contemptible.
    Yeah, let's blame the media for the nasty things the rival politicians' camps are saying about each other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401

    Nigelb said:

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    It’s hardly a new development; arguably as old as history itself.
    No doubt but I suspect that they were not being megaphoned on whatever the equivalent was of an ahistorical, reactionary rag like the Tele. Their partisanship would I think be more about polishing a turd after the event rather than influencing current perceptions of said turd.

    If anything, the Mail is probably a better newspaper than the Telegraph these days. That’s how low it has sunk.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796

    Foxy said:

    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    There was talk at the start of the year that if things went badly for Putin this could be another 1989 moment. Maybe for the UK too. The climax of the Lawson boom?
    Things beginning to look dicey in Kherson Oblast for Russia with the bridge out of action at
    Kherson city and significant forces encircled in the North of the Oblast.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1550299514317279240?t=Pu8fKKVXsy0b0Juz77MdoQ&s=19
    That encirclement hasn't happened. I posted a link to a tweet debunking it yesterday. People got a bit overexcited about a near encirclement.
    Neither that original claim or the debunking were authoritative or persuasive. Either could be correct.

    People trying to discern what is going on on the ground at that sort of granularity from open-source maps are essentially reading the entrails of a snake.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683

    Scott_xP said:

    “Liz Truss as prime minister of a G7 nation. Are you fucking kidding me?”

    Inside the brutal battle for the soul of the Tory party.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @nedsimons

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-battle-for-soul-tory-party_uk_62d97a0be4b06e213fbc9ff6

    If that statement comes from a Tory MP, they only have themselves to blame. It was always abundantly clear that Sunak was not popular with the members, yet the 'gizzajob' numpties still voted for him, hoping that the engineered alternative would be so unthinkable that people would be forced to vote for the slightly less shit option. That doesn't work. People don't like being manipulated in that way. Basically Tory MP's passed on the good option, Mordaunt (I admit she didn't perform exceptionally in the campaign), now they're reaping what they've sown.
    That does not seem to be what happened. Mordaunt was the risky option. MPs voted for the two most senior options available.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    ydoethur said:

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    I think Sunak's problem is that as Chancellor for two years he has to explain how it isn't his fault.

    The problem with Truss - not so much a problem for her - is that what she's proposing would make things a hundred times worse.
    I think it's nuanced. Reversing the NI tax rise (which has only been in place for 3 months) should not be as we simply go back to the antebellum in March 2022 and it increases the value of work, which could help attract some back into the workforce. *Not* increasing corporation tax might also help in showing the UK is open for business and will retain a competitive tax regime in the medium-long term. Both could help recovery.

    However, in terms of tax cuts, I would stop there, other than further measures to mitigate energy price rises this Autumn.

    It's essential to signpost to business investors and the markets that the UK has a sustainable and responsible path to balancing any structural deficit, and deal with debt, to maintain the value of the pound and avoid further inflation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    What about those of us who are historians and political commentators but not partisan? :smile:
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I have just been reading up on the Steve Bannon trial.

    What a total fecking idiot. No wonder the jury only took three hours to convict. I'm surprised it took longer than three minutes.

    @rcs1000 pointed out yesterday that you would expect every trial to have at least 1 Trump supporter within it who can't see the problem.

    I suspect all 3 hours were spent by the other 11 trying to convince that person that Bannon was a complete idiot and deserved no help.
    Nah, nothing to do with that. Juries get a free lunch once they are in the jury room. They probably agreed the verdict in about 10 minutes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Fishing said:

    Cyclefree said:

    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.

    Look at the signatories to the letter - farmers who want to keep competition out and woke charities that hate free trade.

    If anything I think the deal did not go nearly far enough in giving British consumers the benefits of cheaper food for decades.
    I don't agree at all with the criticism of the deal - it shows a net GDP gain with better access for British businesses and services, and provides one of the most liberal deals for young people under 35 that Australia has ever signed - they basically have full free movement up to 3 years. Australia is a growing economy with a growing role in the Indo-Pacific, and a close ally, and it's quite right we strengthen our ties.

    I'm not at all worried about the impact on British agriculture; we had free trade with Australia and New Zealand up until 1980 and (guess what!) British farming was fine.

    We've also been part of a single agricultural market of over 400m people for the best part of 40 years, exposed to competition right across Europe that's barely 25 miles away, and that didn't collapse British farming either. The only real criticism I can make of it is that it doesn't contain enough clauses on climate change.

    Criticism of this falls simply down Brexit lines: if the EU had done a similar deal (and, indeed, they are currently negotiating one) then precisely the same people would be applauding it.

    A government that believed in Parliamentary democracy would have allowed MPs to scrutinise the deal before it was signed.

    As it happens, I agree - all trade deals should be debated and voted on in the floor of the House of Commons, and I'd be supportive of this.

    What I don't agree with, though, is this hyperbolic meme of yours that this government is a threat to the future of democracy in the UK.

    You've got high on your own supply.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. eek, thinking a country is entirely bad, especially when that country fought against the Nazis and did more to end slavery than any other, is not so much lacking nuance as lacking any semblance of intelligence.

    Every country has good and bad parts, both present day and historically. Blindly hating somewhere is just stupid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796

    Mr. eek, thinking a country is entirely bad, especially when that country fought against the Nazis and did more to end slavery than any other, is not so much lacking nuance as lacking any semblance of intelligence.

    Every country has good and bad parts, both present day and historically. Blindly hating somewhere is just stupid.

    "Blindly hating somewhere is just stupid."

    Like the EU? ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    edited July 23
    Mr. Jessop, aye. And those who blindly love the EU are just as stupid as those who hate it on the same basis.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,694
    MattW said:

    Icarus said:

    Liz Truss to bring 7% interest rates


    "Liz Truss’s team is frantically distancing themselves from her economics guru tonight after he said her tax cuts could result in interest rates of up to 7 per cent.

    Professor Patrick Minford, who was named by the Tory leadership frontrunner as endorsing her fiscal strategy, said higher rates would be a “good thing” and more expensive mortgages would be “part of the adjustment”.

    However, several mortgage experts warned this would lead to further annual payments on the average mortgage of about £700 a month, crippling household finances.

    Former chancellor Norman Lamont also told i it would not be a “good thing” to see interest rates go as high as 7 per cent and said it would be “interesting” to see if Truss agreed with the claims.

    The Truss campaign was trying to distance themselves from Professor Minford last night, saying he had no “official role” with her campaign – despite the Foreign Secretary citing his influence as recently as Thursday."

    Let me guess: neither of them have mortgages, but do have savings?
    The claim "to bring 7% interest rates" is a gormless, dishonest exaggeration of what was actually said by Minford.

    But then we all know that.

    But then it is playbook for the UK media shitshow - take an extreme case, get somebody to say "*this* would cause *that*", and try and hang it around the neck of the person who didn't say it in the first place.

    There is a reason they are generally contemptible.
    Pumping money into an economy already suffering from inflation is likely to lead to more inflation. And the ways to deal with that include cutting spending and raising interest rates. Since La Truss says she is not going to do the former, it is entirely reasonable to assume that the latter will happen and will be a direct consequence of her economic plan, a plan which seems to resemble the Barber boom of the early 1970's rather than anything more Thatcherite.

    Even a small rise in interest rates will cause problems, especially on top of rising fuel bills.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691

    The latest borrowing figures and economic for the UK are simply horrific.

    In theory this should suit Sunak - who will make long-term solvency decisions - but because he's so well-off and confident about it - and it probably doesn't help that his wife is a non-dom - people simply don't trust him to have their best interests at heart and do enough about it.

    Sunak has probably been arguing in cabinet about the dangers of trade war with Europe. Whether he'll be brave enough to say this when backing the DUP is now an article of faith within the Conservative party I don't know.
    Rishi Sunak brave lol.
    Well the funny thing is if he really is the underdog now he might as well go for it.
    Sunak needs something big to turn this around in the next week because it seems the ballots are going out long before the bulk of the hustings.
    True but it is in the early hustings that an unprepared Liz Truss is most likely to implode, so it is swings and roundabouts on early ballot returns.
    And there's a couple of TV debates coming up I think next week?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    Alistair said:

    "I have never believed that the EU would suddenly collapse. But I thought it likely that it would gradually run out of political capacity due to lack of popular legitimacy. Many, like myself, have drawn a comparison with the Austro-Hungarian empire: divided, weak but unreformable, aiming at best to maintain (as one of its rulers put it) “a stable level of discontent” among a resigned population. This now seems optimistic."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/22/self-hating-remainers-blind-eus-flaws/

    The transformation of historians into partisan political commentators is not necessarily to their or our advantage.
    For your consideration in the all time list of great Twitter burns.

    https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1549370467580084225
    https://twitter.com/katimcf/status/1549492282000285699
    That is a good joke.

    Mind you, the film does sound ahistorical. If the film were set during the East India Company's rape of India, on the other hand...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    Fishing said:

    Cyclefree said:

    About Truss's claim to deliver: one of those is the Australian trade deal, one she's so proud of that no-one is allowed to scrutinise it.

    Excellent letter in the Times about it here - https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1550472053802909696?s=21&t=CTZiBk1STYO9uBIVK9Tkuw - signed by our very own @NickPalmer.

    It's a rubbish deal which her own officials warned her against. The only thing it delivered was yet another photo opportunity for her.

    Look at the signatories to the letter - farmers who want to keep competition out and woke charities that hate free trade.

    If anything I think the deal did not go nearly far enough in giving British consumers the benefits of cheaper food for decades.
    I don't agree at all with the criticism of the deal - it shows a net GDP gain with better access for British businesses and services, and provides one of the most liberal deals for young people under 35 that Australia has ever signed - they basically have full free movement up to 3 years. Australia is a growing economy with a growing role in the Indo-Pacific, and a close ally, and it's quite right we strengthen our ties.

    I'm not at all worried about the impact on British agriculture; we had free trade with Australia and New Zealand up until 1980 and (guess what!) British farming was fine.

    We've also been part of a single agricultural market of over 400m people for the best part of 40 years, exposed to competition right across Europe that's barely 25 miles away, and that didn't collapse British farming either. The only real criticism I can make of it is that it doesn't contain enough clauses on climate change.

    Criticism of this falls simply down Brexit lines: if the EU had done a similar deal (and, indeed, they are currently negotiating one) then precisely the same people would be applauding it.

    A government that believed in Parliamentary democracy would have allowed MPs to scrutinise the deal before it was signed.

    As it happens, I agree - all trade deals should be debated and voted on in the floor of the House of Commons, and I'd be supportive of this.

    What I don't agree with, though, is this hyperbolic meme of yours that this government is a threat to the future of democracy in the UK.

    You've got high on your own supply.

    Once you bypass Parliament and embed power in the executive, as this government is doing, you start on the slippery slope. Combine that with making it harder to vote, removing the Electoral Commission's independence, rewriting the ministerial code, ignoring international law, curtailing judicial review and criminalising peaceful protest, and a pattern begins to emerge.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,821
    edited July 23
    Given that it looks like Sunak is going to lose, I wonder if he should re-think his strategy and make the distinction between him and Truss sharper? At the moment the only clear difference is on tax; on most other metrics (e.g. Channel 4, Brexit, immigration) he seems to be trying to appeal to the same right-wing constituency as Truss. But he can't outflank Truss on the right, and he can't win over the Mail etc. So maybe he should try to rebrand himself as a one-nation Tory Brexiteer? Something like:

    "I'm going to maximise the opportunities that Brexit brings. But at the same time, I'm going to bring the nation together and heal the divisiveness of the last six years. No longer shall we be so hostile to great British institutions, or play fast and loose with the rule of law, or hostile to those who oppose our ideas. No longer will I allow our party to be accused of crony capitalism. I am going to repair Britain's deserved reputation as a beacon of fairness, common decency and good judgement, where sound money and a fair tax system are combined to both boost economic growth and deliver world-class public services."

    And so on. I'm no Tory of course, but I wonder whether there's a larger constituency among members for a pro-Brexit, one-nation approach than people think.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    OT: The Last of Us is being re-released, this time for PS5. It's a great game. The cashgrab, given it got released for PS4 and they've actually removed some bits (spore clouds), with a £70 price tag is ridiculous.
This discussion has been closed.