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The next CON poll lead in September looks a good bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    If Sunak is likely to lose in the members' ballot whoever he's up against, it provides an incentive for his backers to vote for the person they could live with winning rather than the person they think is beatable.

    True but ideally we'd have an another poll from Opinium, who had Sunak winning amongst members, or anyone else bar Yougov (and Conhome) in case we are just seeing House effects owing to unbalanced panels.
    Campaigning by final two could also alter things. I suspect Truss will lose support during that process if she gets through to final two.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.

    Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
    Yes. See also privatised train companies.
    The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.

    Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.

    There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.

    People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
    We've covered this before - it just wasn't possible because of the way the Government wished to retain the real assets and the way the franchise system was split up...
    Aye they screwed it up.

    It was possible, but the Government shouldn't have retained the assets. Retaining the assets isn't how proper privatisation is done.

    Japan did privatisation better, they privatised the assets, they removed subsidies, and they have a better system without subsidies than we do.
    Problem is the bits without subsidies (I believe the ECML and WCML are highly profitable again) could never make money.
    Never say never.

    People always want to make arguments as to why they need subsidies, as its so much easier to do that than to solve problems as to why you need them.

    Kiwi farmers claimed they "needed" subsidies and would go bust without them, and tariffs, but the government abolished them and their agricultural sector thrived.

    Japanese railways wanted to keep subsidies, they were "needed" but they were abolished and the sector has thrived.

    If the rail sector spent more time worrying about putting their passengers interests first and less effort into lobbying politicians, maybe they too would find they could cope without subsidies too.

    Scotland is probably different to be fair, but Scotland is unique in many ways. Japan's northern island kept subsidies too, but they're even less densely populated than Scotland.
  • Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    LDLF said:

    I agree with OGH's posts on this site: Badenoch is the candidate Labour is likely to fear the most.

    As a relative unknown she has the capacity to represent something entirely new - an apparent change of party, even. This is certainly a risk, but when you have been in government for 12 years, the electorate are going to want something new anyway, so it's worth a try.

    With polling suggesting that Sunak could easily lose to any of the other candidates - making clear that this is unlikely to be a coronation - Tory MPs should make sure that both candidates in the final two are potential PMs they would be happy with. A Mordaunt-led Conservative party solves none of the professed problems in Boris Johnson's leadership style, and Liz Truss, while in my view a perfectly competent administrator (I appreciate I am in the minority here), is not a general election winner. Sunak vs Badenoch would be much more interesting.

    On the Britain First endorsement: Sunder Katwala on Twitter notes Britain First's Telegram channel suggests this to be a bit of 4Chan-style trolling.

    Kemi Badenoch would probably also be best placed to build a unifying cabinet that draws from all wings of the party.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    Or are you acclimatised?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Picture doing the rounds of Bonzo receiving a leaving present from the cabinet. As he and they remain the government for weeks surely there will be other cabinet meetings?

    I hear he's claiming to have been ambushed by it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Paging TSE....Westworld confirmed unwatchable shit. After reasonably promising start, now descended into utterly stupid bollocks. It what I imagine Boris would come up with tasked with writing the plot.

    It's a subtle and compelling commentary on UK government, then ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    LDLF said:

    I agree with OGH's posts on this site: Badenoch is the candidate Labour is likely to fear the most.

    As a relative unknown she has the capacity to represent something entirely new - an apparent change of party, even. This is certainly a risk, but when you have been in government for 12 years, the electorate are going to want something new anyway, so it's worth a try.

    With polling suggesting that Sunak could easily lose to any of the other candidates - making clear that this is unlikely to be a coronation - Tory MPs should make sure that both candidates in the final two are potential PMs they would be happy with. A Mordaunt-led Conservative party solves none of the professed problems in Boris Johnson's leadership style, and Liz Truss, while in my view a perfectly competent administrator (I appreciate I am in the minority here), is not a general election winner. Sunak vs Badenoch would be much more interesting.

    On the Britain First endorsement: Sunder Katwala on Twitter notes Britain First's Telegram channel suggests this to be a bit of 4Chan-style trolling.

    Yes, well put. My thoughts exactly.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Quite the thread

    NEW from Labour: The Forde Report completely debunks the conspiracy theory that the 2017 general election was somehow deliberately sabotaged by Labour Party staff ​opposed to Corbyn's leadership.

    Quote from Forde: In Labour in 2017 there was a "debilitating inertia, factionalism and infighting which then distracted from what all profess to be a common cause - electoral success."

    "The evidence clearly demonstrated that a vociferous faction in the Party sees any issues regarding antisemitism as exaggerated by the Right to embarrass the Left. The authors of the Leaked Report were supportive of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, enthusiastic and fully committed.”


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1549361178685603842

    Hang on - are we now claiming that the right wing didn't deliberately throw the election to deny the Jeremy His rightful ascension to power?

    I am shocked.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2022

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    Or are you acclimatised?
    Not sure, but not hearing of any more London-type records so far, and it also feels fractionally less hot.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Picture doing the rounds of Bonzo receiving a leaving present from the cabinet. As he and they remain the government for weeks surely there will be other cabinet meetings?

    When is it timed to go off?
    Boris or his present?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited July 2022

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022
    Voodoo poll undoubtedly, but just for laughs, home of the angry tory voter Talk TV.....who do you want for PM?.....has


    Rishi Sunak 6.4%

    Penny Mordaunt 19.4%

    Kemi Badenoch 61%

    Liz Truss 13.2%

    (8.400 angry tory votes).

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    This page confirms it. London temperature dropping from now on. Wind direction changing from southerly to westerly.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
  • Nigel Mills MP is a dynamic individual
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168

    Tim Stanley
    @timothy_stanley

    Michael Gove quotes De Gaulle and his “certain idea of France.” Says the next PM must have a certain idea of the U.K. This, is he says, is a multiethnic state that works because it has strong institutions.

    State should do fewer things but better. “I am a Hamiltonian not a Jeffersonian.” The government has been “ knocked off course” by people with stronger narratives.

    Globalisation led to greater inequality which the state has to play a role in ameliorating. Tories should be party of those on “average and below average” wages.
    Wokery is being driven by people who want a bigger state and don’t believe in the nation.


    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1549365386050674690

    The problem with this narrative is that the so-called "wokery" costs the state very little, whereas levelling up costs the state lots and lots.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    I am expecting a rather predictable and dull result today. Rishi breaks 120, Penny climbs up a fair bit, Truss small increase, Kemi out.

    It would be much more fun to see Kemi beating Truss, though. There’s at least the chance of an exciting dice roll with Kemi, whereas Truss is going to be electoral poison no matter what.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    theProle said:

    Ratters said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    Build up in London now out, more high rise as Mordaunt has proposed.

    The green belt is one of the main things that keeps the London suburbs and surrounding home counties like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex livable
    No, build out not up. Everyone should be able to get a home with a garden, not just you. If the green belt is abolished your home and garden would still exist and still be livable in, but other people would also be able to get the same as you.

    The green belt is state protectionism and nannyism. It should be abolished.
    I agree entirely. Popular suburbs around and just outside the M25 should be able to expand, rather than people living there pulling up the gates behind them.

    In some areas more land seems to be used for golf courses than housing.
    Changing the planning category of golf courses to development land, meaning that you could suddenly build on them, but also can't easily build more on greenfield sites would be one of the earliest technical changes of my administration, were I ever to become prime minister - talk about annoying *all* the right people...
    "Annoying all the right people" isn't a good basis for anything.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    We do need more housebuilding but need to do it in a sensible way. Keeping enlarging existing towns and villages is not the way to do it in my view. We should be identifying locations for building new large villages. Make it a requirement of housebuilders that they have to build village amenities (schools, GP surgery, shops, post office, pub etc.) as part of it along with copious green spaces. It is not hard to design a nice community that people will want to live in without destroying those that already exist.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
    Because the second ranking is just name recognition. If we make Kemi PM, her name recognition will probably go up a bit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    The country is full of land available to use, just not in the green belt. Build new towns and refurbish declining towns. Instant economic activity and levelling up instead of overheating one little corner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2022
    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    Much better news for Mordaunt, suggests that if she keeps second today and tomorrow she is likely next Tory leader and PM once it gets to the membership.

    Though in the unlikely event Rishi is knocked out, Truss beats Mordaunt 48% to 42% and Badenoch beats Mordaunt 48% to 43%. Badenoch beats Truss 46% to 43%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1549364762324115456?s=20&t=rVW9vyILDBNdCooVsQbKVA
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    MISTY said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.


    Fast forward to autumn. A man with a 750 million pound fortune is going around Britain telling people choosing between heat and eat that now is not the time for tax cuts. And not just a few of them. Millions.

    He says he empathises with them and the poorest of them might get a further handout. When pressed on their plight he gets tetchy and irritable and refuses to answer some questions.

    In what universe is that a recipe for election victory in England?

    There seems to be some weird calculation going on that the working poor don't matter. Government is perversely happy to give out extra free money to those on benefits. This was true for Covid isolation payments, it is true again for the £600 they are giving people towards heating bills. But not for people who are working and on a low income. They just get completely screwed over. The government just seem to dislike people who try and make their own way through work.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Professional charities getting money in order to then lobby for more money.

    Isn't this one a symptom of a right-wing push for a smaller state, moving activities to the third sector, who then, of course, lobby for more money?
    Yes. See also privatised train companies.
    The biggest problem with privatisation is that they weren't privatised enough.

    Privatisation should have been coupled with properly privatised rails and a total abolition of subsidies, Japan-style.

    There is not much point having privatisation to get railways out of the hands of the state, only to keep the state involved every day because the DfT rather than passengers is where the companies are seeking to make their revenue. In Japan rail companies know that in order to succeed they need customers who are happy to use their services, and grow those services, rather than lobby governments.

    People who advocate a StateCo to run railways but without DfT involvement are deluding themselves, because unless the StateCo loses the subsidies (and if you're going to do that, why not PrivateCo losing them) then the DfT will still want control over what its spending its money on.
    It might still involve the DfT interfering and it might not. British government is capable of doing this properly, with an agency like the Met Office, where it sets targets and signs contracts on the basis of outputs, rather than inputs, and doesn't interfere (at least not as much as the DfT does) on how the Met Office achieves those outputs.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
    Truss is the ideal candidate for the right wing Tory party - as someone almost as Toxic as Bozo is in Scotland she will do wonders for the independence campaign.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Endillion said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
    Because the second ranking is just name recognition. If we make Kemi PM, her name recognition will probably go up a bit.
    She's the most likely to benefit from a honeymoon effect as well.
  • Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!
  • AlistairM said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    We do need more housebuilding but need to do it in a sensible way. Keeping enlarging existing towns and villages is not the way to do it in my view. We should be identifying locations for building new large villages. Make it a requirement of housebuilders that they have to build village amenities (schools, GP surgery, shops, post office, pub etc.) as part of it along with copious green spaces. It is not hard to design a nice community that people will want to live in without destroying those that already exist.
    It should be both, new towns and expanding towns.

    I've said before if it were up to me I would engage in a major new motorway building scheme, and you could have many new towns along the route of that. EG in the South, there should be a motorway linking Cambridge and Oxford - rather than all roads leading to London. You could have junctions with new, viable towns built along that route.

    But existing towns ought to be able to expand too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022
    edit
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Endillion said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
    Because the second ranking is just name recognition. If we make Kemi PM, her name recognition will probably go up a bit.
    If anyone is out there thinking that tax cuts are going to make the tories more popular whilst inflation and public services burn, they are in for a nasty shock.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    PENS DOWN.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    Mercifully your vision of unfettered London sprawl will never materialize. The Tory membership is about to vote in Dizzy Lizzy, who will then lose by a landslide, and we will be governed for decades by a coalition of Labour, Green and Lib Dem NIMBY ultras. Our green and pleasant land is saved!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Voting has ended in the Tory leadership ballot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    If it’s possible to feel TRAPPED OUTDOORS this is what it feels like
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Leon said:

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
    What are the parakeets doing?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Selebian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch supporters attacking Truss for her voting record on WhatsApp

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1549301040079687680?s=20&t=JVfnO-yBenqS5Jh5-dZMjw

    And this shows why I'm not backing Badenoch. Culture war BS is the wrong kind of right wing. Low tax economics etc is what we need, not banging on about BLM.
    Re our brief conversation from yesterday - I suspect we're very similar on social issues, but different on economics, where I'm to your left.

    Would be interesting to know with Badenoch how much of it is really personal opinion and how much is playing up to the (supposed) biases of the membership - and maybe some of the MPs. To get on as a black MP in the Con party, does she have to come out against BLM? (if, indeed, she has)

    (not particularly tagetting the Cons here - to get on as a priviliged white male in Labour, do you need to come out as superwoke?)
    Badenoch has been very anti-BLM for years. I don't think she's putting anything on. She's a hard right Tory. If you want to be more specific, she seems to be on the libertarian wing. We also know she lies (she wasn't on minimum wage because there wasn't a minimum wage). We also know she U-turns (against Net Zero, for Net Zero, against Net Zero in one day). She's Nadine Dorries with somewhat more brains.
    I won't fault her for saying she was on Minimum wage before the minimum wage existed it just means she was on a low wage.

    Now if she claimed that her pay rose as Major and Clark introduced the minimum then I would call that a lie
    First minimum wage was £3.60, introduced in 1999. I remember this, because I got an 80% pay rise (up from £2.00) when it was introduced, at my job with the Student Union Entertainments team.

    Kemi was born in 1980, she’d have been 19 when it was first introduced.
    She worked at McDonald's when doing her A'levels. I presume she'd finished her A'levels by the time she was 19.
    So she might have been on a minimal wage rather than an official minimum wage.

    Why does this matter?
    Because she said she was on the minimum wage? It's not a big lie, and maybe not a deliberate lie at all, but I was hoping that after Johnson we might see a return to honesty, accuracy and integrity in public life, rather than people just saying whatever is convenient.
    The quote was "...when I was 16..", so it wasn't minimum wage, and it seems doubtful that she was working a 40hour week.

    They are relatively minor points, but she is the one who's been criticising her opponents for similar elisions of the truth, which was why I noted it.
    Except it wasn't an elision of the truth. She said she knows what its like. What she did was like that. Like doesn't mean identical to.

    A pre-minimum wage job is like a minimum wage job. In fact, many would argue it was worse, which is why the minimum wage came in surely?

    It really takes the biscuit to complain that someone is not telling the truth as they didn't have a minimum wage job, when they said they knew what it was like, because they actually had a pre-minimum wage one.
    A decent defence.

    Though it's still a bit like Truss complaining about her inadequate education under a Conservative government. Had her party had its way, we might still have pre-minimum wage jobs.

    Its just like it, yes, people go into politics to change things and not everything prior governments (even prior governments of your own party) did was correct.

    As for Truss, its worth remembering that she was brought up in a comprehensive in a Labour Council, with a Labour LEA, before politicians from Blair onwards in recent years sought to bring education more into national government politics and away from LEA/local council politics.

    By the time Truss entered Parliament, Parliament was already an increasingly common place for education reform whereas when she was a child it was more commonly LEAs in charge.
    The problem was lack of resources from the government of the time, not the politics of the LEA.
    Completely disagreed.

    Resources spent on education through the 80s was the same orhigher as a proportion of GDP than it is now. Politically motivated LEAs made some terrible choices despite having the resources, because they could blame central government for anything that went wrong while pushing their own agenda unaccountably and without competition.
    Any evidence to back that assertion up?
    1990 education as percentage of GDP was 4.31%
    2022 education as percentage of GDP is 4.20%

    Higher spending then, but the atrocious LEAs are nerfed now.
    You would need to correct that for the population share that is in Education. If that has declined over the same period then spending per student may have increased.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    That's what the BBC said we should expect - the heat dome is moving NE with the wind

    That the new record hasn't been beaten at the same location is another clue
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Endillion said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunak 35%
    Truss 54%

    Sunak 37%
    Mordaunt 51%

    Sunak 34%
    Badenoch 56%

    YouGov poll of Tory party members

    MPs appear to be turkeys voting for an early Christmas.
    More like the membership is voting for a labour victory at the next election.
    And that's the problem the Conservatives have.

    Amongst Conservative members, Kemi beats Liz beats Penny beats Rishi.
    Amongst the general public, Rishi beats Penny beats Liz beats Kemi.

    And right now, the Conservative party doesn't seem too bothered by the mismatch.
    Because the second ranking is just name recognition. If we make Kemi PM, her name recognition will probably go up a bit.
    If anyone is out there thinking that tax cuts are going to make the tories more popular whilst inflation and public services burn, they are in for a nasty shock.
    Maybe, but at least they'll know who to blame.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Leon said:

    If it’s possible to feel TRAPPED OUTDOORS this is what it feels like

    Drunk and dropped your doorkeys down a drain again?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    AlistairM said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    We do need more housebuilding but need to do it in a sensible way. Keeping enlarging existing towns and villages is not the way to do it in my view. We should be identifying locations for building new large villages. Make it a requirement of housebuilders that they have to build village amenities (schools, GP surgery, shops, post office, pub etc.) as part of it along with copious green spaces. It is not hard to design a nice community that people will want to live in without destroying those that already exist.
    It should be both, new towns and expanding towns.

    I've said before if it were up to me I would engage in a major new motorway building scheme, and you could have many new towns along the route of that. EG in the South, there should be a motorway linking Cambridge and Oxford - rather than all roads leading to London. You could have junctions with new, viable towns built along that route.

    But existing towns ought to be able to expand too.
    You are Alfred Marples and I claim my 5 shares in Marples Rridgway Motorway Construction Ltd.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
    Sounds like my first August visits onto the Athens airport tarmac 30 years ago. A jet blast, 38, 39 degrees or so , rich, dusty sea smells, and you can't move until getting onto the airpot bus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    The rain incoming has reached Yeovil
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    MISTY said:

    Voodoo poll undoubtedly, but just for laughs, home of the angry tory voter Talk TV.....who do you want for PM?.....has


    Rishi Sunak 6.4%

    Penny Mordaunt 19.4%

    Kemi Badenoch 61%

    Liz Truss 13.2%

    (8.400 angry tory votes).

    Pretty sure that Badenoch goes out tonight, as the devil takes the hindmost and she is unlikely to get enough TT votes to pass Truss.

    Which means Mordaunt vs Truss continues.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited July 2022
    AlistairM said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    We do need more housebuilding but need to do it in a sensible way. Keeping enlarging existing towns and villages is not the way to do it in my view. We should be identifying locations for building new large villages. Make it a requirement of housebuilders that they have to build village amenities (schools, GP surgery, shops, post office, pub etc.) as part of it along with copious green spaces. It is not hard to design a nice community that people will want to live in without destroying those that already exist.
    There is significant development taking place in two local communities. In both of them the schools are full or nearly so and the GP surgeries can take no more patients.
    Just how is this going to work?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Pro_Rata said:

    Clarification on the overnight minimum.

    The official 10am to 10am highest minimum record will go to Kenley, Surrey with 25.8C.

    Emily Moor didn't drop below 25.9C overnight, but was below that yesterday morning.

    We wuz robbed.

    That is unfortunately necessary to retain consistency with earlier records.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022
    "Kemi Badenoch emerges as members’ favourite as Conservative MPs vote in fourth round of contest

    Rishi Sunak would lose the Conservative leadership election to whichever of his three remaining rivals he faced in the final round, new polling of party members suggests. Kemi Badenoch has emerged as the frontrunner among Tory members, beating all her rivals." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-vote-results-today-candidates-latest-w3l79dl5x
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    darkage said:

    MISTY said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.


    Fast forward to autumn. A man with a 750 million pound fortune is going around Britain telling people choosing between heat and eat that now is not the time for tax cuts. And not just a few of them. Millions.

    He says he empathises with them and the poorest of them might get a further handout. When pressed on their plight he gets tetchy and irritable and refuses to answer some questions.

    In what universe is that a recipe for election victory in England?

    There seems to be some weird calculation going on that the working poor don't matter. Government is perversely happy to give out extra free money to those on benefits. This was true for Covid isolation payments, it is true again for the £600 they are giving people towards heating bills. But not for people who are working and on a low income. They just get completely screwed over. The government just seem to dislike people who try and make their own way through work.
    Yes, what you may think of Gordon, he got that - working tax credit was precisely aimed at that group.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    darkage said:

    MISTY said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.


    Fast forward to autumn. A man with a 750 million pound fortune is going around Britain telling people choosing between heat and eat that now is not the time for tax cuts. And not just a few of them. Millions.

    He says he empathises with them and the poorest of them might get a further handout. When pressed on their plight he gets tetchy and irritable and refuses to answer some questions.

    In what universe is that a recipe for election victory in England?

    There seems to be some weird calculation going on that the working poor don't matter. Government is perversely happy to give out extra free money to those on benefits. This was true for Covid isolation payments, it is true again for the £600 they are giving people towards heating bills. But not for people who are working and on a low income. They just get completely screwed over. The government just seem to dislike people who try and make their own way through work.
    People who are working and on a low income are probably on UC, which certainly made them eligible for the £650 COL payments, the first half of which started being paid this week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited July 2022

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    Well, adding apple, Highland Park and whatever else it was would improve the experience considerably.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Leon said:

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
    37 degrees in suburban South Manchester.

    Life going on entirely as normal. Committed drinkers outside Wetherspoons putting a shift in; weird buses which go nowhere in particular as surprisingly busy as ever, people bustling in and out of B&M Bargains. Admittedly people wearing rather fewer clothes than they might at other times.
    It's hot. But it's not apocalyptic. It's dry, there's a breeze. It is actually quite pleasant. I wouldn't want to be out in it indefinitely, but, you know, it'll be over tomorrow.

    I have an inflatable hot tub which I have filled up. I'm not heating the water up, but it's reached a steady 34 degrees. Which is quite pleasant to dunk yourself in.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 337
    Thunder and rain here in West Dorset.
    Hallelujah!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
    The last time I felt a heat like this I was in Alice Springs. The dryness of this heat is quite unusual in itself and fortunately so.

    On the lunchtime school run I had to return some library books and have now discovered (school closing at lunchtime today due to the heat) that the village library has amazing air conditioning and free WiFi. I may in future heat waves take myself down there to work if I don't have calls.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931
    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Voodoo poll undoubtedly, but just for laughs, home of the angry tory voter Talk TV.....who do you want for PM?.....has


    Rishi Sunak 6.4%

    Penny Mordaunt 19.4%

    Kemi Badenoch 61%

    Liz Truss 13.2%

    (8.400 angry tory votes).

    Pretty sure that Badenoch goes out tonight, as the devil takes the hindmost and she is unlikely to get enough TT votes to pass Truss.

    Which means Mordaunt vs Truss continues.
    What a shame. Is it not good for even internal party democracy that voters get to see candidates before they vote?
  • This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    Someone better pop a cap[puccino] in his ass.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488

    Tim Stanley
    @timothy_stanley

    Michael Gove quotes De Gaulle and his “certain idea of France.” Says the next PM must have a certain idea of the U.K. This, is he says, is a multiethnic state that works because it has strong institutions.

    State should do fewer things but better. “I am a Hamiltonian not a Jeffersonian.” The government has been “ knocked off course” by people with stronger narratives.

    Globalisation led to greater inequality which the state has to play a role in ameliorating. Tories should be party of those on “average and below average” wages.
    Wokery is being driven by people who want a bigger state and don’t believe in the nation.


    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1549365386050674690

    The problem with this narrative is that the so-called "wokery" costs the state very little, whereas levelling up costs the state lots and lots.
    Wokery is implicitly framed on the assumption of a hollowed-out political sphere which features no intermediary steps between a mass of powerless individuals and distant and faceless "powers that be".

    The businesses, associations, congregations, and clubs that once made up American society are gone. America has been atomized; her citizens live alone, connected but weakly one to another. Arrayed against each is a set of vast, impersonal bureaucracies that cannot be controlled, only appealed to.

    A “Culture of Victimhood” is a perfectly natural response to this shift in the distribution of power. Remember that the central purpose of moral cultures is to help resolve or deter disputes. Dignity cultures provide a moral code to regulate disputes among equals from the same community. They also help individuals in a community–citizens–organize to protect their joint interests. 21st century America has lost this ability to organize and solve problems at the local level. The most effective way to resolve disputes is appeal to the powerful third parties: corporations, the federal government, or the great mass of people weakly connected by social media. The easiest way to earn the sympathy of these powers is to be the unambiguous victim in the dispute.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    It might be good for latte presentations.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Pro_Rata said:

    Clarification on the overnight minimum.

    The official 10am to 10am highest minimum record will go to Kenley, Surrey with 25.8C.

    Emily (Emley) Moor didn't drop below 25.9C overnight, but was below that yesterday morning.

    We wuz robbed.

    That is unfortunately necessary to retain consistency with earlier records.
    And I was bloody autocorrected to boot. The shame!
  • .

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    Someone better pop a cap[puccino] in his ass.
    Its always good to mocha those in power.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


    A far cry from the days when I was using Vodafone 'Sure Signal' (sic) over the internet for wfh conference calls and a large incoming email would knock me off the call.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    It isn't really about the Green Belt. It is about the inability of the government to decide where to build stuff. That is the strategic deficit that has existed for the last decade. The decision about what gets built where just goes down to a case by case basis based on byzantine and often nonsensical planning rules. Sometimes housing estates even end up getting approved in the Green Belt because the housing supply situation is so poor; planning policies do allow for this to happen. The problem is of the governments own making and they now need to take a strategic decision about where to build new towns and have the guts to actually follow it through.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    He should keep his flat white views to himself.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I am expecting a rather predictable and dull result today. Rishi breaks 120, Penny climbs up a fair bit, Truss small increase, Kemi out.

    It would be much more fun to see Kemi beating Truss, though. There’s at least the chance of an exciting dice roll with Kemi, whereas Truss is going to be electoral poison no matter what.

    I would say the Ukrainian MFA getting directly involved in the election campaign as a sign that the Truss camp doesn't feel as confident as that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


    A far cry from the days when I was using Vodafone 'Sure Signal' (sic) over the internet for wfh conference calls and a large incoming email would knock me off the call.
    Indeed. In 2012 the speed in this house was 2 Mbps.

    It is now 900 Mbps.

    Hoorah for modern technology.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Foxy said:

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    It might be good for latte presentations.
    Sounds like a Tall story to me.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Voodoo poll undoubtedly, but just for laughs, home of the angry tory voter Talk TV.....who do you want for PM?.....has


    Rishi Sunak 6.4%

    Penny Mordaunt 19.4%

    Kemi Badenoch 61%

    Liz Truss 13.2%

    (8.400 angry tory votes).

    Pretty sure that Badenoch goes out tonight, as the devil takes the hindmost and she is unlikely to get enough TT votes to pass Truss.

    Which means Mordaunt vs Truss continues.
    I remember the days when people said Jeremy Hunt would be one of the top contenders for next leader.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022
    MrEd said:

    I am expecting a rather predictable and dull result today. Rishi breaks 120, Penny climbs up a fair bit, Truss small increase, Kemi out.

    It would be much more fun to see Kemi beating Truss, though. There’s at least the chance of an exciting dice roll with Kemi, whereas Truss is going to be electoral poison no matter what.

    I would say the Ukrainian MFA getting directly involved in the election campaign as a sign that the Truss camp doesn't feel as confident as that.
    I hope you’re right.

    Will feel much more interested in the contest and the candidates if it’s Rishi/Kemi/Penny after today.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    Xtrain said:

    Thunder and rain here in West Dorset.
    Hallelujah!

    You remember that scene in Jean de Florette where he sees the rainstorm coming and it never quite reaches him?

    That.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Paging TSE....Westworld confirmed unwatchable shit. After reasonably promising start, now descended into utterly stupid bollocks. It what I imagine Boris would come up with tasksd with writing the plot.

    Its writing was always bollocks - it was just very stylish.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    For those interested in Nuclear Fusion there is a great podcast regarding First Light Fusion (the Oxford lot) at https://physicsworld.com/a/projectile-fusion-offers-new-path-to-clean-energy-quantum-communications-for-alien-civilizations/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    BF: Mordaunt is in to 4.3 from 6. Voting ended 2pm. Someone know something?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Feels like we're already coming slightly down off the peak in London, if I'm right. Felt hotter about an hour ago.

    I’m outside in Regents Park. It’s scorched and deserted. A few brave souls hiding in the shade


    I’ve never experienced heat like this in the UK, literally and emotionally. Feels like desert heat. With that same hot whirring relentless breeze that provides zero relief

    Nothing really moves. The big trees stir, but listless, and helpless. Skewered.
    37 degrees in suburban South Manchester.

    Life going on entirely as normal. Committed drinkers outside Wetherspoons putting a shift in; weird buses which go nowhere in particular as surprisingly busy as ever, people bustling in and out of B&M Bargains. Admittedly people wearing rather fewer clothes than they might at other times.
    It's hot. But it's not apocalyptic. It's dry, there's a breeze. It is actually quite pleasant. I wouldn't want to be out in it indefinitely, but, you know, it'll be over tomorrow.

    I have an inflatable hot tub which I have filled up. I'm not heating the water up, but it's reached a steady 34 degrees. Which is quite pleasant to dunk yourself in.
    Really not the case here

    Regents Park right now





    Can this just be because London is about 3C hotter?

    Don’t think so. I suspect it’s cultural. Londoners are more used to extreme heat - so they know to avoid it - and get better summers - so don’t feel the need to enjoy the sun whatever. Because they know there will be other, nicer sunny days
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Not news. 2004

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2004/jun/27/themonarchy.medicineandhealth
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    "We have also seen evidence of denialism about antisemitism amongst some on the Left, who asserted that the issue was being exaggerated to undermine the leader..

    What a revelation. Probably part of the conspiracy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Temperatures levelling out a bit now, 40.2°C might be as high as it gets.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931
    .

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


    And your other isp for redundancy? Even a prole like me had EE and Vodafone from home in case one died.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    I actually disagree with this - if Truss gets through there’s still no guarantee she gets to the run off, particularly if Rishi continues to do well.

    If Kemi gets through though, I do think she’s going to ride the momentum all the way into the run off vs Rishi.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    Brings to mind this clip from possibly the best sitcom ever created (is it a sitcom? It didn't appear in the list of 100 greatest sitcoms we discussed a few weeks back.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyT31PYPLRA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    If Sunak is likely to lose in the members' ballot whoever he's up against, it provides an incentive for his backers to vote for the person they could live with winning rather than the person they think is beatable.

    Mordaunt probably. Worst people have said so far is she's lazy and empty.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Stocky said:

    BF: Mordaunt is in to 4.3 from 6. Voting ended 2pm. Someone know something?

    She'll do well this round, but trolley loads of Badenoch <-> Truss voters I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    .

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


    And your other isp for redundancy? Even a prole like me had EE and Vodafone from home in case one died.
    EE.

    Can get about 40 Mbps.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2022

    Temperatures levelling out a bit now, 40.2°C might be as high as it gets.

    Yes I think so. Feels quite steadied at this temperature, probably with quite a lot of breeze swinging around to the west too, as AndyJS has said.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader. 1/5
    Sign up: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    I’m not joking about Regents Park. That wasn’t just one angle

    I’ve never seen it this empty on a “lovely” sunny day





    Unreal atmosphere
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931
    Cookie said:



    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Surely he's free to espresso his own views?
    Brings to mind this clip from possibly the best sitcom ever created (is it a sitcom? It didn't appear in the list of 100 greatest sitcoms we discussed a few weeks back.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyT31PYPLRA
    I've an early memory of wandering round the Co-op looking for soap flakes for the district nurse to give my mate's dad an enema.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    I actually disagree with this - if Truss gets through there’s still no guarantee she gets to the run off, particularly if Rishi continues to do well.

    If Kemi gets through though, I do think she’s going to ride the momentum all the way into the run off vs Rishi.
    This is the dilemma for the Right.

    It is hard to see Truss' main backers (ERG / Pro-Jonsonites) moving to either of RS or PM.

    It is easier to see KB's backers splitting across with at least some attracted to PM as the best option to keep their RW seats falling.

    So, logically, if you are on the Right, you would want KB and not LT to go through as you should have a better chance of having a candidate from the Right as PM.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    kle4 said:

    If Sunak is likely to lose in the members' ballot whoever he's up against, it provides an incentive for his backers to vote for the person they could live with winning rather than the person they think is beatable.

    Mordaunt probably. Worst people have said so far is she's lazy and empty.
    "worst"
  • It feels like today is the day when the next PM will be chosen: either Truss or Badenoch.

    Par score I have for today is:

    Sunak 124, Penny 100, Truss 73, Badenoch 60

    Would see Penny expanding her lead, and "breaking" the 100 mark but eliminated tomorrow:

    Sunak 142, Penny 106, Truss 109
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Oooh, FTTP just went live for me. Go BT!

    It is the dog’s dangly bits.

    This is my speed on the other side of the house from the router.

    I’m on a work video call, I’ve got two kids on their PS5/Xboxes, and my father is watching UHD content on the TV.


    Why the string-with-cans-internet? 1Gb symmetrical here. Thinking of upgrading to 3Gbs
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited July 2022

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    ...



    It does feel like the tories are in a death spiral and will lose the next general election, for the simple reason that they are fighting themselves on issues that are irrellevant to most people in this country. Its a bit like a repeat of the the mid 1990's with tory MP's banging on about Europe. The probable legacy of this leadership contest is going to be massive defeats over legislation.

    Quite amusing that 'free marketeer' Badenoch now wants to protect the Green Belt. No doubt electoral compromise is already kicking in.

    She's going to have reduce immigration a lot if she wishes to protect the Green Belt.
    Basically, I think not. Much of the country doesn't even have Green Belt.

    Here's the extent in England:



    Anyone who thinks that is a useful policy response, rather than a basis to start educating ingrown Nimbydom as to what exists outside, needs to get on their bike. Then it can move on from there.

    Leaving aside that the chart is full of manufactured comparisons (as these always are), it feels like circling the wagons.
    You're right much of the country doesn't have green belt, just the bits of the country that has seen massive population growth and so the cities need to expand into the countryside to compensate.

    The green belt should be abolished completely. Keep green parks, but not a green belt, because attempts to constrain the population of cities like London have utterly failed.

    London's population in 1955 was less than 8.3m, its now more than 9.5m but where are the extra homes and gardens for the extra million plus people living there?
    It was 8.6m in 1939.
    Precisely. The green belt was a viable policy for an era of falling population where there was actually brownbelt land to rebuild post-war.

    Its a f***ing stupid policy to have 70 years later when the population has grown to record levels and is growing still, the brownfield land that was devastated during the war has already been reclaimed and used but there's still no more land available to use. 🤦‍♂️

    But some big nanny state enthusiasts want to keep it in place as it makes their own home and garden "liveable" and screw anyone else who wants their own home and garden too.
    Mercifully your vision of unfettered London sprawl will never materialize. The Tory membership is about to vote in Dizzy Lizzy, who will then lose by a landslide, and we will be governed for decades by a coalition of Labour, Green and Lib Dem NIMBY ultras. Our green and pleasant land is saved!
    Abolishing the Green Belt wholesale is as behind the times as is obsessing about protecting it.

    There have been many policy developments since - some places have developed their GB policies, and others have supplemented them. New towns are one example.

    Areas of the London GB are now more like scrubland.

    Some areas inside the London GB are low density that is ready for high density - there are Low Density council estates that could be revisited at Barbican (or double Barbican) density.

    Equally we need policies to look at encouraging higher density usage of areas with shrinking household size in the Owner Occupied sector. Small HMOs are one thing that needs to be less blighted - large HMO style regulation of small HMOs is a problem - 'Friends' type lifestyles are now more heavily regulated than is necessary, for example. Regulating 2 or 3 people sharing a 2 or 3 bedroom house as if it was a household of 6 or 8 sharing is OTT a present; it more like a small family than a crowd of students.

    There;s plenty to be done, but wholesale abolition of Greenbelt is as simplistic (and as out of date) as blind & selfish wholesale defence of it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    This is not the Daily Mash.

    Prince Charles once argued for so-called 'coffee enemas' to be used on the NHS to treat cancer patients, a new unauthorised biography has claimed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/book-claims-prince-charles-pushed-for-coffee-enemas-on-nhs/ar-AAZyP6Y?ocid=st

    Did he have a Royal Lochnagar blend which he could make available for such use?
This discussion has been closed.